Thursday, April 29, 2010

Eyjafjallajokul volcano is “a lava, not a fighter.”
T.J. Sullivan
- No updates this Friday through Sunday. -

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 VANUATU

Yesterday -
4/28/10 -
5.0 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.3 MYANMAR
5.0 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.

VOLCANOES -

ICELAND - As once-stranded European travelers return to their routine lives, farmers near the base of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano are only starting to grapple with long-term consequences of the recent eruption. The April 14 blast triggered major flooding that inundated hundreds of acres of fields and coated the area with ash up to four inches thick in some areas. Farmers have begun cleaning up — a laborious process that's expected to continue through the summer.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEALTH THREATS -

There is growing evidence that flu vaccines don't protect elderly people from flu-related death, but flu experts didn't entirely agree about how much this should be publicized. The director of the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (Osterholm) said that it's time to be more open about the vaccine's lack of effectiveness in older people. Flu vaccines don't work as well in older people as in younger because the aging immune system responds less vigorously. The vaccine may offer some protection in healthy older people, but evidence suggests it does not protect the frail elderly. The immunization director for the Minnesota Department of Health said she welcomes the findings but worries that if they are publicized, people will think there is no reason to get a flu vaccination. Osterholm said he initially was reluctant to accept the evidence that flu vaccines don't save elderly people's lives but now finds it incontrovertible. He added that new vaccines that work better in the elderly are needed. A high-dose vaccine intended for the elderly was licensed by the Food and Drug Administration this year.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

No updates this Friday through Sunday - Taking a mini vacation!

Science is organized knowledge. Wisdom is organized life.
Immanuel Kant

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.

Yesterday -
4/27/10 -
5.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.4 WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
5.2 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.

VOLCANOES -

ITALY - The volcano of Ischia, a resort island famed for its thermal waters off the coast of Naples, could potentially erupt, Italian disaster experts say. While Vesuvius is more commonly considered the nation's most worrisome volcano, Ischia, which last erupted 700 years ago, is experiencing a build-up of magma. No eruption is imminent, but "if I had to say which is the volcano with the most loaded gun barrel, I'd say it's not Vesuvius but the island of Ischia." Ischia's "magma chamber is loading up." An eruption on Ischia "could be worse than a hypothetical Vesuvius eruption." While scientists detect no sign of an eruption, Ischia's volcanic potential is being monitored along with that of Vesuvius, the mountain that looms over Naples and destroyed Pompeii when it blew in 79 AD. Vesuvius is a disaster planner's nightmare, since its slopes are officially inhabited by some 500,000 people, although perhaps as many as 150,000 more live in illegal, unregistered housing in the 18 hamlets clinging to its side. Considering that parts of crowded, chaotic Naples could be in the path of Vesuvius' fury, more than a million people might ultimately be ordered to evacuate in case of eruption. Seismologists have detected no signs of the quakes that are expected to rattle Vesuvius before any major eruption. Italian volcano and earthquake experts are about to launch a several-year project to monitor and explore 13 largely unstudied undersea volcanoes in the Mediterranean, near Sicily and the southwest Italian coast.

GUATEMALA - An eruption at Guatemala's Santiaguito volcano has sent a plume of ash 27,300 feet (8,300 meters) above sea level, dusting parts of at least four provinces. The volcano has calmed since Monday's big burst - though it is still seeing weak to moderate explosions. The eruption damaged local flower harvests, but caused no injuries. Schools were closed in 10 communities as a precaution and flights have been banned for 12 miles (20 kilometers) around the volcano. Santiaguito is a crater on the slope of the Santa Maria volcano about 120 miles (200 kilometers) northwest of Guatemala City.

VANUATU - In early April, activity at Gaua Volcano in the Vanuatu Archipelago increased. The ash column, which first appeared in October 2009, became thicker and higher, and volcanic bombs were frequently sighted from the coastal villages surrounding the volcano. Vanuatu government officials are preparing to evacuate residents of Gaua Island, who are threatened by ash, poisonous gases, and landslides.
(satellite photos, map)

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

SPACE WEATHER -

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory has just observed a massive eruption on the sun. Billions of tons of material blasted into space while debris from the explosion rained down around the blast site. Moon-sized fragments of plasma splashed brightly when they landed back on the sun's surface. Veteran solar physicists say they've never seen anything quite like it. (video, photos)
The Earth-facing side of the sun has had no sunspots for 13 days.
A solar wind stream flowing from a coronal hole could reach Earth on or about May 3rd.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

“We thought that we had the answers,
it was the questions we had wrong.”
Bono

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
4/26/10 -
5.0 NEAR S. COAST OF WESTERN HONSHU
5.3 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
6.5 SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN

CALIFORNIA - A pair of small aftershocks rattled parts of the Coachella and Imperial valleys Sunday. The quakes are among thousands of substantial aftershocks to the 7.2 magnitude El Mayor-Cucupa earthquake, which rattled Southern California and northern Baja California on Easter Sunday, April 4. That quake killed two people in Mexicali and caused about $100 million damage in Imperial County. The giant Easter quake spawned several aftershocks every day, but the frequency of those over 3.0 has been dropping. The largest in the past week were two quakes - magnitude 4.7 and 4.6 - recorded Thursday morning.

VOLCANOES -

GUATEMALA - The Santiaguito volcano showered sand and ash over a large area of western Guatemala in an "UNUSUAL" and "violent" display. The national seismological institute said
winds were carrying the ash in a northeasterly direction from the 2500 metre high volcano in the province of Quetzaltenango, 206 kilometres west of the capital. The ash plume spread across six provinces, raising fears of damage to crops, while classes were suspended at schools in three provinces. Santiaguito's worst eruption occurred in 1929 when 2500 people were killed.

ICELAND - The Eyjafjallajökull volcano continues to erupt, but a much lower levels than when it began its explosive eruption stage on April 14. However, it's still spewing out an estimated 22 to 44 tons of magma a second. The plume of volcanic ash is gradually declining. It's unclear how high the eruption plume was yesterday because of cloud cover, but it did not reach 3.2 miles (the height of the clouds.) The eruptive material tephra (small rocks and lava fragments) coming out of the volcano are much coarser than during the first four days of the explosive eruption phase. The explosions can be heard six to nine miles away. On Saturday, lava was spattering 330 feet into the air but that had subsided by Sunday. The seismic tremors are similar to what they have been for the past few days and don't appear to be increasing in severity. There was one earthquake with a magnitude of 1.4 at Eyjafjallajökull on Sunday.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

INDIA - The Assam State Electricity Board’s transmission and distribution network has taken a heavy pounding from the cyclonic storms over the past one month. Other states of the Northeast, too, have faced nature’s fury with Meghalaya, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh’s power infrastructure taking a severe beating. Assam, in particular, has witnessed an UNUSUALLY stormy April this year, with powerful Nor’westers whipping up storms frequently over the past few weeks, resulting in heavy loss of life and property. The most devastating cyclonic storm occurred on Saturday evening across several places in lower Assam, including the capital where the wind speed crossed the 100km/hour barrier. Six were killed in the state on Saturday, two in Guwahati. The storms have uprooted transmission towers, snapped cables with trees falling over them and damaged transformers. “Though we have restored power in almost all the affected areas, these are only on a temporary basis. We will need around two-three months to complete permanent restoration."
The situation took another grim turn last night when another cyclone ravaged the Badarpur block on the Indo-Bangladesh border. Many rural areas are still without power. In Arunachal Pradesh, two 750KV and 500KV power cables snapped when the towers were uprooted in Dibang Valley on Saturday during a severe cyclonic storm. Saturday’s storm also lashed parts of Lower Dibang Valley and Lohit, snapping power cables and posts. In Meghalaya, the areas bordering Bangladesh have been affected badly by the series of storms raging through the state.

HEALTH THREATS -

Australia's number of suspected vaccine reactions grows - The number of children in West Australia who had convulsions or fever and vomiting after receiving a seasonal flu vaccine that covers the pandemic strain has grown to 251. Officials say the immunizations likely came from multiple batches. Queensland is also investigating the possibility of adverse reactions in children, and police in Brisbane are probing the death of a recently vaccinated 2-year-old.

Monday, April 26, 2010

Among creatures born into chaos,
a majority will imagine an order,
a minority will question the order,
and the rest will be pronounced insane.
Robert Brault

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
6.5 SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN

Yesterday -
4/25/10 -
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.7 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.2 TONGA

TAIWAN - A strong earthquake measuring 6.5 on the Richter scale has struck the southeast coast of Taiwan, south of Japan's Ryukyu Islands, with no reports of damage or tsunami warnings. It struck about 22 kilometers (13.7 miles) deep, making it a shallow earthquake. The earthquake was reportedly felt in southern Japan and in Taiwan, where buildings swayed in Taipei.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

INDIA's hundreds of millions of farmers braced on Friday for this year's official monsoon forecast, with the 2010 rains of critical importance after the worst drought in three decades. The forecast from the national weather office relies on data from local and foreign climatologists to make the best possible prediction for the monsoon, which lasts nationwide from June to September. More than 70 per cent of Indians depend on farm incomes, and about 65 percent of the nation's farms are not irrigated, meaning they depend entirely on the rains that fall in intense bursts over the wet season. The drought of 2009, when the rains were 30 percent weaker than their long-term average, has hit crop yields and farm incomes, leading to much higher food prices and an increase in rural hardship. On Friday, the Indian Meteorological Department forecast normal rains this year within the range of 96%-104% of their long-term average. "Monsoon rainfall rarely fails for two consecutive years." Out of the roughly 20 droughts India has suffered since 1901, 17 were followed by near-normal rainfall. India is the world's second-biggest producer of rice, wheat and sugarcane.

SPACE WEATHER -

Poised to erupt - Already this month, the sun has produced two of the biggest eruptions in years. They occurred on April 13th and April 19th when magnetic filaments became unstable and exploded. It could happen again today. A prominence on the eastern limb of the sun resembles the precursors of those two earlier blasts.

Sunday, April 25, 2010

You cannot step into the same river twice.
Heraclitus

LARGEST QUAKES -
Today -
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.7 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.2 TONGA

Yesterday -
4/24/10 -
6.0 KEPULAUAN OBI, INDONESIA
5.0 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.6 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.2 CRETE, GREECE
5.6 SOUTHEAST OF EASTER ISLAND
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
4/23/10 -
5.9 BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.4 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.5 GUAM REGION

OKLAHOMA - A swarm of rumblings this year in the state is shaking off misconceptions consigning earthquake tremors to the West Coast. The Oklahoma Geological Survey records more than 50 earthquakes a year in Oklahoma, which has always had small earthquakes, credited to periods when the land was stretched apart, Arbuckle mountains were pushed up and large basins developed. So far, the research group has charted 34 earthquakes in Oklahoma, including one on Feb. 27 in Lincoln County that reached a magnitude of 4.4, which is forceful enough to be felt indoors and rattle dishes and windows. Local scientists are scratching their heads to pinpoint the backstory to the shaking stir that’s rocked the state this year. “We’re not really certain,” they said of this year’s quake numbers, noting similarities to tremor occurrences in 2004. “It’s sort of the nature of earthquakes. They often cluster temporarily and then are quiet for awhile. It’s all within the realm of possibilities.”
There are likely faults deeply buried in the state where the latest rumblings have occurred, the trend of reported shakings is streaming through the middle of the state — mostly in Oklahoma, Lincoln and Canadian counties. The rumblings, however, can’t be linked to named faults, since they remain undetected below the Earth’s surface. “We don’t have a fault map we can put them on. We can’t see inside the Earth." The only time an earthquake in Oklahoma has ruptured the surface was along the Meers fault line, which runs west of Lawton. The last movement along this fault was 1,200 years ago, measuring a magnitude of 6 plus. The fault’s scarp — the displacement that occurred when its movement broke the Earth’s surface — happened in the 1980s. “If anyone was ever going to be afraid of a large earthquake coming somewhere, that’s the one. But that’s not likely.”
One theory is that there is a rift zone extending from the Great Lakes to Oklahoma, as the Midcontinent Rift remains narrow until it reaches the plains of Kansas, where it begins to spread into Oklahoma. Whether this scenario is true could be determined within the next few years as 400 seismometers, like the one buried near Tecumseh, are installed every 45 miles through the country, rotating to a new location every two years. The images, available on EarthScope’s Web site at www.earthscope.org, will be used to paint a three-dimensional, detailed picture of the Earth’s mantle to study the characteristics and origins of earthquakes and their faults, so scientists can better predict quakes. The devices already have disproved several scientists’ theories of faults in states like Washington, where the seismometers have ended their temporary stint. “We just have an incomplete history of these small earthquakes.”

VOLCANOES -

ICELAND Volcano produced a RARE ‘dirty thunderstorm’ - While all the focus has been on Eyjafjallajokull's ash plume and its disruption of air travel, scientists have also been taking a closer look at the phenomenon called a “dirty thunderstorm.” A rare form of lightning was seen during the eruption that scientists still don’t fully understand. In a typical thunderstorm, lightning occurs when an electrical charge separation occurs (between negative and positive charges) which is great enough to overcome the poor conductivity of the air. Scientists have many theories on how this occurs. One popular theory is that a storm becomes electrified due to the collisions of ice particles and hail stones within the storm. Using that same logic, scientists think that the collision of ash particles (or of ash particles, water droplets and ice) during a volcanic eruption could produce a similar charge separation, which would result in the electrical discharge we see as lightning.
Volcanologists at the Alaska Volcano Observatory were able to collect some exceptional data on “dirty thunderstorms” back in January 2006. After volcanic lightning was observed during the eruption of Mount Augustine in Alaska, two electromagnetic lightning detectors were installed about 60 miles away. Just two days later, Augustine exploded with another four big eruptions. Though lightning was not observed visually, the lightning detectors recorded continuous radiation and bursts of lightning within the rock and ash as it rushed upward from the vent. About 3 minutes after the main explosion, another 300 lightning discharges were recorded.
A stunning new video shows the crater of the volcano and shockwaves exploding through the air as it erupts. Eyjafjallajokull sprang to life after nearly 200 years of quiet last month. After seeming to settle down, a larger eruption on Wednesday, April 14th occurred and sent ash, smoke and steam miles into the atmosphere. The ash cloud then moved over Europe where it disrupted air travel for millions across the globe. Images of the eruption have provided an incredible look into the life of a volcanic eruption. Perhaps most fascinating were the photos of volcanic-lightning. The new video, shot from an aircraft as it circles Eyjafjallajokull, clearly shows smoke, steam and ash being belched into the air. The explosive nature of the event is on full display as red lava is seen shooting up from the crater's hole. Most impressive are shockwaves that are clearly seen emanating with each explosion of lava. The cloud of steam, smoke and ash are visibly disturbed as the shockwave sends ripples through them.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone SEAN was 622 nmi W of Broome, Australia.

SEAN - Over the southern Indian Ocean, northwest of Australia and south of the Lesser Sunda Islands, Tropical Cyclone Sean spanned hundreds of kilometers in late April. The storm has a comma shape consistent with cyclones, but lacks a discernible eye. On April 23, Tropical Cyclone Sean had maximum sustained winds of 45 knots (85 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 55 knots (100 kilometers per hour). The storm was located roughly 475 nautical miles (880 kilometers) north of Learmonth, Australia. Sean had traveled toward the southwest and will continue on that route before turning westward. The storm was expected to weaken over the next few days. (satellite image & map)

HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

U.S. - A tornado, almost a mile wide, tore through central Mississippi over the weekend killing at least 10 people and decimating neighborhoods as it raked cities from the central western border with Louisiana northeastward to Alabama. It leveled a church, sheared roofs off houses, overturned cars and plunged large swaths of the state in darkness as it toppled power lines. The hardest-hit counties were Yazoo and Choctaw, Mississippi. Outside of those two counties, authorities had recorded at least 188 homes destroyed and 33 injuries.
In Eagle Lake, near the Louisiana border, about 30 homes were destroyed. In Holmes County, 50 homes sustained structural damage. Parts of three highways were closed due to downed trees and other damage. In all, 12 counties reported injuries. Mississippi residents reported that the path of the twister was a half-mile to a mile wide. The tornado had traveled 150 miles across Mississippi, starting in the western part of the state and moving northeast before weakening as it moved into Alabama. Early this morning, Alabama's emergency management officials confirmed a tornado touched down in Marshall County in the state's north. At least one mobile home park and some homes in Albertville were destroyed. Saturday's tornado was part of a broad band of storms that stretched from Missouri to the panhandle of Florida. Saturday's twister struck Louisiana before it moved into Mississippi. (videos)

INDIA - A giant tornado that ravaged hundreds of thousands of homes and killed 137 people has left one million people in eastern India without a roof over their heads. Packing a wind speed of 75 miles and hour, the storm raged for 40 minutes leaving a trail of destruction in West Bengal and neighbouring regions, Bihar and Assam last week. “It was like a cyclone with people shouting Cyclone Aila, which hit West Bengal last year. We prayed for early end of nature’s fury." More than 200,000 houses have been completely or badly damaged by the storm. And the very poorest families are most affected because they had thatched roofed houses. "Most people are living out in the open amid the wreckage of their homes."

HEALTH THREATS -

H1N1 vaccine study investigating hints of complications from vaccine. - Federal health officials are investigating the first hints of any possible significant complications from the H1N1 vaccine, but stressed that the concerns will probably turn out to be a false alarm. The latest analysis of data has detected what could be a somewhat elevated rate of Guillain-Barré syndrome, which can cause paralysis and death; Bell's palsy, a temporary facial paralysis; and thrombocytopenia, which is a low level of blood platelets. The data is being collected through five of the networks the government is using to monitor people who were inoculated against the swine flu. Officials stressed that it is far too early to know whether the vaccine was increasing the risk of those conditions or whether there is some other explanation, such as doctors identifying more cases because of the intensive effort to pinpoint any safety problems with the vaccine. Even if the link with Guillain-Barrésyndrome is confirmed, the committee calculated the vaccine at most could be causing one extra case per 1 million people vaccinated. Even if the possible risks turn out to be real, officials stressed that the danger of the flu remains far greater. The vaccine was administered to 350 million to 400 million people worldwide, including as many as 80 million Americans, as part of an unprecedented response to the first flu pandemic in decades.
Although the vaccine was produced in record time, antiquated technology and unexpected problems growing the virus fast enough to produce the vaccine meant that most of the doses did not arrive until after the second wave of infections peaked last fall. That led to widespread anxiety, frustration and lines across the country as people scrambled to find the first doses. By the time most of the vaccine was ready, the second wave was already receding and demand fell sharply, leaving millions of doses unused. The relatively low number of deaths compared with previous pandemics and the millions spent on the vaccine have led to charges that the World Health Organization exaggerated the pandemic's risks. That prompted the Geneva-based arm of the United Nations to launch two investigations, which are ongoing.

Worldwide H1N1 activity remains low - Pandemic H1N1 remains at low levels in temperate regions of the world, with the most active areas in parts of west and central Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central America. Seasonal influenza B has become the predominant circulating flu virus across East Asia, central Africa, and northern and eastern Europe. Seasonal H3N2 is still being detected in south Asia, Indonesia, and several countries of west Africa, and eastern Europe.

Friday, April 23, 2010

What deep wounds ever closed without a scar?
George Gordon

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.5 GUAM REGION

Yesterday -
4/22/10 -
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.5 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.2 TONGA
5.1 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.

VOLCANOES -

ICELAND's volcanic eruption was still causing strong tremors on Thursday, though far less ash and smoke was pouring out into the air. The tremors coming from it are stronger now than when the ash plume was at its highest, at about 9 km (5.6 miles). "We don't know exactly what this is telling us. This is kind of telling me that it is not stopping yet ... As it looks now it could go on for a while." The tremors could indicate a build up of lava, or molten rock, within the crater. "The lava cannot really go anywhere. It is not flowing out of the crater, it must be accumulating there." The volcano under the Eyjafjallajokull glacier, about 120 km (75 miles) southeast of the capital Reykjavik, has been erupting for 8 days.
For locals, ash is set to continue to fall in areas close to the volcano, raising concerns about dangers to livestock from high levels of fluoride in the ash. Apart from the current volcano, Icelanders have also been warily eyeing the nearby Katla volcano, which is much larger and has a much greater potential for devastation. It last blew in 1918, flooding huge areas.

Was the flight ban necessary? The UK Met Office is still detecting an ash cloud in European airspace, so why is it now safe to allow planes to fly? The Civil Aviation Authority has confirmed that the guidelines regarding flying through volcanic ash have been changed, following six days of discussions between aviation engineers and experts to "find a way to tackle this IMMENSE CHALLENGE, UNKNOWN IN THE UK AND EUROPE IN LIVING MEMORY". "Air manufacturers...were asked to look at the scientific evidence from test flights and at the Met Office data, to understand how much volcanic ash in the atmosphere… jet engines could tolerate [without being] damaged." Now, scientists and engineers have agreed on a safe threshold - a concentration of ash of 0.002g per cubic metre of air. At or below this concentration, there is no damage to the engine. Current data suggested that concentrations of ash in UK airspace were around 100 micrograms (or 0.0001g) per cubic metre. The CAA has opened airspace where the concentration of ash in the air is below this new threshold.
So does this mean the ban was ever necessary? Was the ash cloud ever sufficiently dense to prevent safe flight? The answer to this is still unclear, but early analyses of the research flight data suggested that the plume that had been measured over the past four days contained only 0.0004g of ash per cubic metre at its peak. But the regulations before this event were set out by an international body called the International Civil Aviation Organisation. It set a limit of "no tolerance" for any concentration of volcanic ash. Previously, scientists were not able to detect ash at the very low concentrations that modern analytical equipment is capable of measuring. So the advice was to avoid it all together. "But now we have this blanket over the biggest airports in northern Europe. It's an UNPRECEDENTED situation." The CAA spokeswoman said: "Volcanic ash has not left UK airspace - it's still here, and it's a very fluid situation. There are still 'black blobs' [on the map] where the ash is more dense, and the co-ordinates are being updated every six hours." The difficulties in operating commercial aviation "are likely to be felt for many months to come", and this ash cloud and the regulatory upheaval will have a significant impact in the cost of flying aircraft. "Engines are just the start of the problem. There are many other components on aircraft that are equally sensitive to particulates and maintaining these in the current conditions is likely to be very expensive." (ash map)

VANUATU - The analysis of data collected from the monitoring network of Gaua volcano since October 2009 indicates the existence of volcanic tremor. An abundance of gases is emitted from this volcano daily. Field observations confirmed significant change of activity with thicker and higher emissions of ash columns in early April. Since the end of March/beginning of April , the ash plumes height is between 7000 and 10000 feet every day. Field reports also stated that the explosion sounds could be heard from the villages daily. Moreover, starting from the 3rd of April, volcanic bombes projections from Gaua volcano could be observed from all the coastal villages from the north to the south of the island with reports of ashfall. This information simply shows that the activity is no longer stable as in February. The Alert Level of Gaua volcano still remains at Level 2, however this may change if the activity continues to increase. People are not allowed to access this volcano to avoid impacts of volcanic risks. (maps & photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone SEAN was 548 nmi WNW of Broome, Australia.

SPACE WEATHER -
The sun remains blank for the 8th day - no sunspots.

HEALTH THREATS -

AUSTRALIA'S chief medical officer has told doctors to stop giving the seasonal flu vaccine to children. The advice follows concerns the vaccine is adversely affecting children's health. "We suggest doctors and health professionals vaccinating children don't use the seasonal flu vaccine for the moment, until we can get the Therapeutic Goods Administration to investigate this in more detail." He said the concerns stemmed from a significant rise in the number of children developing a fever after receiving the vaccine. In light of the seasonal flu shot suspension, he suggested children get vaccinated against swine flu instead, because that could be a health risk this winter too.

Alabama reporting 1 H1N1 death per week - One fourth of Alabama's 52 pandemic flu deaths have occurred this year, and over the past several weeks the death toll has risen. After recording five H1N1 deaths in January and February, the state has already seen eight in March and April. "It looked like it [death rate] had peaked and was reaching the lower end of the bell curve. Then it increased."

A potentially deadly strain of fungus is spreading among animals and people in the northwestern United States and the Canadian province of British Columbia. The airborne fungus, called Cryptococcus gattii, usually only infects transplant and AIDS patients and people with otherwise compromised immune systems, but the new strain is genetically different. "This novel fungus is worrisome because it appears to be a threat to otherwise healthy people. The findings presented here document that the outbreak of C. gattii in Western North America is continuing to expand throughout this temperate region. Our findings suggest further expansion into neighboring regions is likely to occur and aim to increase disease awareness in the region." The new strain appears to be UNUSUALLY deadly, with a mortality rate of about 25 percent among the 21 U.S. cases analyzed. "From 1999 through 2003, the cases were largely restricted to Vancouver Island. Between 2003 and 2006, the outbreak expanded into neighboring mainland British Columbia and then into Washington and Oregon from 2005 to 2009. Based on this historical trajectory of expansion, the outbreak may continue to expand into the neighboring region of Northern California, and possibly further."
The spore-forming fungus can cause symptoms in people and animals two weeks or more after exposure. They include a cough that lasts for weeks, sharp chest pain, shortness of breath, headache, fever, nighttime sweats and weight loss. It has also turned up in cats, dogs, an alpaca and a sheep. Freezing can kill the fungus, so climate change may be helping it spread.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

There was no update on 4/21/10.

Tomorrow always comes, and today is never yesterday.
S.A. Sachs

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.3 TONGA
5.3 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.

Yesterday -
4/21/10 -
5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.8 TONGA
4/20/10 -
5.3 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.3 WESTERN AUSTRALIA

CHINA - The death toll from last week's earthquake in northwestern China has climbed to 2183, with another 84 people missing.

IRAN - President Ahmadinejad has asked Iranians - 5 million of them - to evacuate the capital to avert a deadly quake catastrophe. Like the people of San Francisco, Tehranis know their sprawling metropolis is due for a massive earthquake. In Iran, where building standards have not advanced as quickly as the population, some estimate millions could be killed or maimed. In an Islamic society where disasters are often seen as acts of God, Ahmadinejad told housing officials they could no longer rely on the power of prayer to save Tehran from annihilation. "Tehran has 13 million inhabitants. If an incident happens, how can we manage it? Therefore, Tehran should be evacuated. At least 5 million people should leave Tehran." As a huge quake is reckoned to hit the area around every 150 years, seismologists say one is now well overdue.
A veteran seismologist has been arguing for years that the entire capital should be moved far away from the fault lines at the foot of the Middle East's highest mountains, and that its various functions be relocated around the country. He estimates that Tehran faces a 90 percent risk of a quake of Richter scale 6 -- enough to devastate the city -- although he cannot say exactly when. "Maybe in 50 years. Maybe tomorrow night. Or maybe while I'm speaking to you."
An architect said it would take 100 years and billion of dollars to make Tehran's buildings earthquake proof, but he does not think the alternative policy -- moving the masses out of town -- has been properly thought through. "Of course, if the population of Tehran was 3 million it would be easier to manage the risk, but it's impossible to move the population of Tehran somewhere else." One problem is where to move them, as most of the inhabited areas of Iran are also in earthquake zones. "By moving them (there) you are just moving their graves."

Women who dress provocatively are to blame for earthquakes - An Iranian cleric has claimed that promiscuous women are responsible for literally making the earth move. "Many women who do not dress modestly ...which (consequently) increases earthquakes. What can we do to avoid being buried under the rubble?'' Women in the Islamic Republic are required by law to cover from head to toe, but the increase in young women flaunting the law - and not the fact that Tehran straddles scores of fault lines - is apparently risking the lives of the city's 12 million inhabitants. More than 21,000 women are promising to test the theory by showing as much cleavage as possible on Monday, April 26. "I encourage other female skeptics to join me...With the power of our scandalous bodies combined, we should surely produce an earthquake." If the world doesn't then disappear into an apocalyptic fiery chasm, the cleric will have no option but to admit he was wrong. ( "Boobquake" Facebook page )

VOLCANOES -

ICELAND - The Eyjafjallajokull volcano that is wreaking havoc with European air traffic may be reverting to a more normal, lava-spewing phase after the past six days of explosive eruption, seismologists say. Geologists in Iceland on Monday reported that the volcano is producing less smoke and ash and more lava and chunks of molten rock. "It is sputtering and bubbling and will probably create a cone formation" as the lava spills over and freezes into rock. As of late Monday, the ash plume from the volcano was very elongated and thin, and stretched as far east as mid-Russia and as far west as Newfoundland and Labrador.
There are two possibilities for why the volcano's pattern of eruption has shifted. One is that the molten magma coming up through the volcano is simply less "fizzy" with water, carbon dioxide and sulfur. Data on the chemical composition of the ash coming out of the volcano show that the lava coming to the surface now is different from what the volcano was producing when it first began its non-eruptive flow on March 20.
The other possibility is that the amount of meltwater near the opening of the volcano changed as the eruption boiled it away. When there's the right ratio of water to magma, volcanoes can have what are known as phreatomagmatic eruptions, where the water flash-steams, creating a huge plume of ash and steam. "Once the interaction with the (water in the) glacier stops, you go into dry mode." But that doesn't mean it's possible to predict what the volcano will do in the future. "If something stops for five minutes, it doesn't mean it's shutting down. There's three things we never know in volcano science: when, how big and for how long."

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

UNITED KINGDOM - COLDEST WEATHER IN 30 YEARS marks the start of a series of extreme winters. Scientists are now warning that Britain can expect to endure a series of extreme winters - the like of which have NOT BEEN SEEN FOR MORE THAN 300 YEARS. Researchers have found that low solar activity - marked by a decrease in the sun's magnetic field - influences the weather conditions across northern Europe. The last time the sun showed similar behaviour, between 1650 and 1700, temperatures dropped so low that Londoners were able to skate and hold fairs on the iced-over River Thames. The latest winter marks the start of a Maunder minimum - when solar activity falls for a prolonged time. The sun's magnetic field is thought to influence the jet stream - a fast-moving, high altitude current of air which moves eastwards at 35,000ft over the Atlantic. During the famously cold winters of the late 1600s the mild westerly winds were blocked and replaced by much colder blasts from the north-east - bringing Arctic conditions with them.
"This year's winter in the UK has been the fourteenth coldest in the last 160 years and yet the global average temperature for the same period has been the fifth highest. We have discovered that this kind of anomaly is significantly more common when solar activity is low. Temperatures should not fall as low as they did in 1684 but we can expect an increased number of cold winters."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

INDIA - A severe heat wave sweeping India, with temperatures of almost 44 C (111 F), THE HIGHEST IN 52 YEARS, has killed at least 80 people this month. The scorching weather, which officials said would continue over northern, northwestern and central India in the next 48 hours, also may have some impact on wheat production. New Delhi recorded a maximum temperature of 43.7 degrees Celsius on Saturday, presaging a hot summer in the next two months in the nation’s capital and other parts of northern and eastern India. The highest temperature in the past 24 hours was 47 C at Ganganagar city, in Rajasthan state. Summer temperatures have been 4-6 degrees Celsius above normal over most parts of northern and central India since March. India is expected to produce about 82 million tonnes of wheat in 2009/10, but there could be a shortage of 1-1.5 million tonnes due to the heatwave. India is relying on a bumper wheat crop to make up for a 14.2 percent drop in rice output, the major summer-sown food grain, marred by the worst monsoon in 37 years last year.

HEALTH THREATS -

Bangladesh sees H1N1 cases surge - After a quiet start to the year, Bangladesh is reporting rapid spread of pandemic flu this month and has placed health officials across the country on alert. April through September is typically the busiest season for flu.

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

There was no update on 4/21/10.

One day, someone showed me a glass of water that was half full.
And he said, "Is it half full or half empty?"
So I drank the water. No more problem.
Alexander Jodorowsky

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.3 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.3 WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Yesterday -
4/19/10 -
5.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

AFGHANISTAN - At least seven people are dead and 30 injured after a magnitude 5.3 earthquake struck in mountains north of Kabul. The quake hit just before 6.30am (AEST) Monday.
Roads and communications are sparse in the area and casualty reports take time to reach authorities. The quake was felt in Kabul as well as the neighbouring countries of Uzbekistan and Tajikstan. The region is capable of producing large earthquakes along fault lines where India slammed against the Asian continent millions of years ago.

CALIFORNIA - The number of earthquakes greater than magnitude 4.0 in Southern California and Baja California has increased significantly in 2010. There have been 70 such quakes so far this year, THE MOST OF ANY YEAR IN THE LAST DECADE. AND IT'S ONLY APRIL. There were 30 of this size in 2009 and 29 in 2008. Seismologists said they are studying the uptick but cannot fully explain it. Major earthquakes tend to occur in cycles, and experts have said the region in recent years has been in a quiet cycle when it comes to sizable temblors. The string of quakes this year raises the possibility that Southern California might again be entering a more active seismic period. Scientists said the increase does not mean the Big One is any more imminent, but it could mean more significant quakes are on the way.
Many of the earthquakes this year have been aftershocks to the 7.2 temblor that rattled the Mexicali area earlier this month. The border region had experienced a swarm of smaller quakes before the big one. And there have been more than 1,000 aftershocks, including more than a dozen that registered higher than 5.0. The Mexicali quake was the region's largest in nearly two decades — since the 7.3 Landers quake in the Mojave Desert in 1992. Despite their size, neither temblor did catastrophic damage because they occurred in relatively remote areas far from major population centers.
Beginning in the late 1990s, the number of memorably large quakes subsided. Experts are not sure the reason for the cycles; they say said one possibility is that the ups and downs are random. Another possibility: a "cascade effect" in which a quake on one fault changes the stresses on another.
Experts said there is no evidence the world is experiencing more large earthquakes. A quake the size of the one that hit Baja erupts somewhere on the planet roughly every three weeks. The Chile and Haiti temblors occurred in heavily populated areas, so the damage was far greater - and the attention they received much more intense - than that caused by big quakes in more remote areas.
In California, scientists say one of their biggest concerns remains the San Andreas fault, which has produced some of the state's largest earthquakes. Experts have said the San Andreas is overdue for an eruption. State officials have also often noted that only about one in six Californians has earthquake insurance, with the high cost and large deductibles deterring many homeowners from buying policies. Though it comes after several more quiet years, it's not uncommon for one large quake to produce months — if not years — of increased seismic activity. So in that sense, 2010's quake pattern is fairly typical.

VOLCANOES -

ICELAND - The eruption of a volcano in Iceland strengthened Monday, sending a new ash cloud towards Britain. "Latest information from the Met Office (weather forecasting service) shows that the situation is worsening in some areas."

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

Monday, April 19, 2010

It is easy to stand a pain, but difficult to stand an itch.
Chang Ch'ao

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
4/18/10 -
5.5 CENTRAL AFGHANISTAN
5.1 MONA PASSAGE, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
5.5 GUATEMALA
5.0 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION

4/17/10 -
5.1 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA
5.3 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.3 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
6.2 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.5 NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA
5.0 JUJUY, ARGENTINA
5.0 XIZANG-QINGHAI BORDER REGION

4/16/10 -
5.7 BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.2 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.0 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.3 OAXACA, MEXICO
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.7 ALASKA PENINSULA

Earthquake predictions ignored? - Two Chinese seismologists had predicted an earthquake in the Tibetan Autonomous Region and had reported their predictions to the China Earthquake Administration. The 7.1-magnitude earthquake that shook Yushu in Qinghai Province on April 14 has so far left 1,484 people dead, 312 missing, and 12,088 injured as of April 17. A seismologist sent a brief on short-term earthquake prediction to the CEA on April 13. He also sent a text message to the China Earthquake Networks Center and received a confirmation receipt. He predicted an earthquake would occur near Yushu, Qinghai Province between April 14 and 17 at a magnitude of 5.0 to 5.5. Another earthquake forecaster submitted a written report to the CEA in early March predicting a quake in Chaya County, quite close to Yushu and in the same seismic region. He is well-known for correctly predicting the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake four months ahead of its occurrence and the 2010 Yunnan Province earthquake one month in advance. His current prediction was accurate within 2 hours and 10 minutes, with the epicenter within 124 miles and the magnitude differing by 0.7.
On March 9, seismologists from the CEA issued a statement: “Since 2010, the global earthquake frequency is indeed higher than average, but for the time being it is still difficult to say the earth has entered a high-frequency period of strong earthquakes. Judging from the current situation, more strong earthquakes will still happen, but mostly in the Pacific Rim. Devastating earthquakes will not happen in China in the near future."
Both seismologists said they felt distressed and helpless. “According to regulations, earthquake predictions can only be announced by the government and earthquake administrations, and no individual or institutions are allowed to publicize predictions on their own.”
The two seismologists refuted the authorities’ claim that earthquakes are unpredictable. They said that they follow natural rules and are definitely predictable. “If we have the necessary research facilities and collaborations, the accuracy of earthquake predictions can reach 98 percent and above, and we can also contribute to the exploration of seismic energy." They are dealing with limited resources as well as equipment which has not been installed according to standards. This has created a great deal of interference and slowed their progress. With better resources and collaboration, they feel there would be no problem to accurately predict earthquakes. “I tried to get information from other earthquake monitoring stations, and I also applied to the higher authorities. My efforts were fruitless."

AUSTRALIA - People were jolted from their sleep when a magnitude 3.8 quake - South Australia's STRONGEST IN MORE THAN 20 YEARS - struck just south of Mt Barker at 11.27pm on Friday. Its shockwaves were felt across the state. It was the largest of four tremors that had struck close to Adelaide in the past 19 days, with three recorded near Kuitpo, including a 1.9 magnitude tremor on April 2. The Australian Seismological Centre director said it was only "a matter of time" before SA experienced a repeat of the 5.5 magnitude quake of 1954 that caused $70 million damage across Adelaide. "I think we probably haven't seen the worst yet, but the probability would be pretty small that it will happen in our lifetime. But in places like Adelaide, very few buildings are designed to resist earthquakes. A 1954-style earthquake will happen at some stage in the future and Adelaide will be damaged. It's just a matter of time."
SA experiences at least one magnitude 3.8 quake a year, and Adelaide faces the greatest risk of earthquake damage out of any major capital city due to its large number of volatile fault lines. "This is the fourth relatively small earthquake in just a few weeks, which is UNUSUAL. This earthquake was possibly up to a magnitude of even four and it's only the depth (of the quake) that saved you from damage. I think at the moment there is a high probability of an earthquake in this same area of the Adelaide metropolitan area."
"If there are a lot of these in the next couple of months some people might get upset, but this is close enough to normal, except we don't usually have them down here, we usually see them up in the Flinders." The Australian tectonic plate is moving north at 7cm a year, nudging with adjoining Eurasian and Pacific plates and increasing stress on the continent. It is expected normal tectonic plate movement and pressure on the plates caused the quake.

VOLCANOES -

ICELAND - The volcanic cloud of ash drifting in from Iceland has caused THE LONGEST CLOSURE OF EUROPEAN AIR SPACE SINCE WORLD WAR II. Some scientists say the current event could be a warning sign of even bigger volcanic disruptions to come. As of Sunday afternoon, there was some indication that the eruptions from the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland may be abating. While cloud cover prevented scientists from getting a good view of the eruption, radar measurements suggested that the ash plume wasn't above 10,000 feet on Sunday, after rising to 30,000 earlier.
Icelandic volcanoes have been disrupting weather & history since 1783 - If past is prelude, then the volcanic eruption in Iceland may not only affect air travel in the coming days, it may also have a lingering impact on Europe’s weather. Experts are looking back to the aftereffects of a previous eruption – when the Laki volcano in Southern Iceland exploded more than 200 years ago. That explosion had catastrophic consequences for weather, agriculture and transport across the northern hemisphere – and helped trigger the French revolution.
Describing the summer of 1783 in the Natural History of Selborne, a British naturalist wrote it was “an amazing and portentous one … the peculiar haze, or smokey fog, that prevailed for many weeks in this island, and in every part of Europe, and even beyond its limits, was a most extraordinary appearance, unlike anything known within the memory of man." The haze blanked out the sun at midday, it was “particularly lurid and blood-colored at rising and setting,” and the heat was so intense that “butcher’s meat could hardly be eaten on the same day after it was killed.” This bizarre summer was followed by an usually harsh winter. Experts observing this week’s volcanic eruption at Eyjafjallajökull say that while the scale of crisis may not be the same, continued eruptions at the spot could cool temperatures in Northern Europe. The one bright spot in the current explosion, say scientists, is that there may be enough aerosols in the atmosphere to cause brilliant red sunsets across Europe.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

INDIA - Waiting for relief after a freak storm ravaged thousands of households in North Dinajpur, panic gripped villages Friday night when thick black clouds covered Karandighi, Raiganj and Kaliaganj blocks, prompting homeless villagers living in temporary shelters to rush to local schools and other buildings to save their lives. While there was heavy rainfall at Karandighi and Raiganj, Kaliaganj saw a massive hailstorm. The death toll in Tuesday's storm rose to 44. Meanwhile, villagers agitated in front of Hemtabad block office Saturday morning against the shortage of relief material. Over a thousand of them also held a road blockade on the state highway at Karandighi, alleging political bias in the distribution relief material.

Friday, April 16, 2010

We often repent the good we have done as well as the ill.
William Hazlitt

LARGEST QUAKES -
Today -
5.5 BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.0 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.3 OAXACA, MEXICO
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.7 ALASKA PENINSULA

Yesterday -
4/15/10 -
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

CHINA - The death toll from the strong quake that rocked a remote Tibetan region of China has surged past the 1000 mark as tons of food, clothes and other vital supplies start pouring in.

Despite five earthquakes of 7.0 magnitude or higher so far this year, scientists say the level of quake activity is normal.

VOLCANOES -

ICELAND - The cloud of volcanic ash hovering over northern Europe could cost airlines hundreds of millions of dollars a day and smaller airlines will have to fight for survival, officials and analysts have warned. Air travel across Europe could be hit for days by the effects of the volcanic ash cloud. More than 20,000 flights have been grounded.
Icelandic eruptions may disrupt European air traffic for months - “It could go on for months. From what we’ve seen, it could erupt, pause for a few weeks, and then possibly erupt again.” Prevailing winds may provide some respite for travelers. Air streams over Britain come from the west or southwest 70 percent of the time and would carry ash away from the major hubs such as Heathrow and Amsterdam Schiphol. “We normally look to the Atlantic for our weather, so that’s going to move anything emitting from a volcano in Iceland away from us. The predominant pattern would take the plume north-eastward from the eruption site.”
The outlook this weekend is for westerly winds to pick up over northern Britain, shifting ash away from Scotland, while a blocking pattern may continue to keep it over England. The edge of the ash cloud was forecast to reach as far south as northern Italy and Romania and as far east as the borders of Kazakhstan as of 6 a.m. today London time Because of the wind direction Iceland’s Keflavik remains open, with North American flights to operating on schedule.

VANUATU - Activity at Gaua Volcano, in the South Pacific archipelago of Vanuatu, continued into April.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

SPACE WEATHER -

NASA's STEREO spacecraft has captured spectacular images of a solar eruption, THE LARGEST SOLAR PROMINENCE IN 15 YEARS. The activity was caught on camera in extreme UV light as the prominence blasted away from the sun on April 12 and April 13. Prominences are cool clouds of plasma that hover above the Sun's surface, notoriously unstable and on occasion they erupt like this one. However, this one was much more dramatic than most. (video)

HEALTH THREATS -

Structural analysis confirms 1918, 2009 pandemic links - Structural analysis of the hemagglutinin of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic flu virus, and comparison of the structure with the recovered 1918 pandemic flu virus, reveals a shared epitope in both viruses. That antigenic similarity may explain repeated observations over the past year that those old enough to have been exposed to descendants of the 1918 virus possess some degree of protection against the 2009 strain.

H1N1 virus found to damage heart - A previously healthy 11-year-old girl died of heart failure, caused by compression of the heart by fluid in its outer sac, that appears to have been caused by H1N1 flu infection. H1N1 viral sequences were found in the girl's heart tissue and pericardial fluid, suggesting direct damage by the flu virus. Researchers warn that myopericarditis may be an underappreciated result of H1N1 infection.

Severe H1N1 cases may put kidneys at risk - Patients severely ill with pandemic H1N1 infections can have kidney injury or failure, though usually the conditions are reversible. In a study of critically ill patients from seven Manitoba hospitals, two-thirds had the conditions, and those with kidney failure were 11 times more likely to die. The findings are a reminder to avoid dehydration and substances that could hurt kidneys.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

The future influences the present just as much as the past.
Friedrich Nietzsche


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
4/14/10 -
5.0 VANUATU
5.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 GUERRERO, MEXICO
5.0 PAGAN REG., N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.8 SOUTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA
5.1 SOUTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA
5.2 SOUTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA

CHINA - The deadly quake which hit the remote Qinghai region left thousands of people homeless. Rescuers continued to search with their bare hands and picks 30 hours after the quake. Officials say 617 people died and 9,980 were injured when the quake struck Yushu county early on Wednesday. But 313 people are missing and the death toll is expected to rise. In the township of Jiegu, 85% of buildings were destroyed and state TV has been showing street after street reduced to rubble. About 900 people have been pulled out alive since the quake struck. It was measured as magnitude 6.9 by the US Geological Survey while the China Earthquake Networks Centre measured it as 7.1. Rescue operations were being hampered by the fact that the quake disrupted telecommunications, knocked out electricity and triggered landslides. Weather forecasters were predicting wind and sleet in the coming days, putting victims at risk of exposure. The high-altitude region is prone to earthquakes but this was THE STRONGEST TREMOR SINCE 1976 within 100km of the area.
There is no direct relationship between this latest earthquake and the devastating event in Sichuan, China, in May 2008. "It's not the same fault, it's a consequence of the same bit of global tectonics, which is the collision of India with Asia...It's not stress release that you sometimes hear reported where one part of a fault goes and then, for example, 100km along the fault another bit goes. That's not what we're seeing here." The earthquake did not occur at a boundary between Earth's tectonic plates. This earthquake was caused by a different mechanism to the event in May 2008. While the Sichuan earthquake was caused by a "thrust" movement, this latest event was a "strike-slip" event, which involves sideways movement along a fault. "India bumped into Asia (millions of years ago) and threw up the Tibetan plateau. That high ground is now being squeezed out towards the east and down towards the south-east. There is thrusting at the edge of the mountain belt where the Sichuan quake was but this earthquake is further north and west."
There has been no seismic event as big as this within 200km of the current epicentre since at least 1900. The quake happened at a depth of 10 km, which is slightly more shallow than the recent Haiti quake. When quakes occur at shallower depths, the ground tends to shake more. "It doesn't qualify as a major earthquake even though the result may be a major disaster." (photo & map)

RECENT DEADLY QUAKES
•Feb 2010: Magnitude 8.8 quake in central Chile kills at least 450
•Jan 2010: About 230,000 die in magnitude 7.0 tremor in Haiti
•April 2009: Quake measuring 6.3 in L'Aquila, Italy, kills 300 people
•May 2008: 87,000 die in 7.8 scale tremor in Sichuan province, China
•Oct 2005: Quake measuring 7.6 hits north Pakistan, killing 73,000

VOLCANOES -

ICELAND - A volcanic eruption in Iceland spewed black smoke and white steam into the air on Wednesday and partly melted a glacier, setting off a major flood that threatened to damage roads and bridges. The plume was seen rising from a crater under about 200 meters (660 feet) of ice at the Eyjafjallajokull glacier, close to the site of another eruption which started last month and died down only on Monday. The Icelandic Civil Defense Authority ordered 700 people to evacuate their homes and said melting ice from the glacier had caused big floods that threatened to damage a highway and several bridges. "We have had to dig some holes in the road so the flood could pass through and ease pressure on the bridges." Three large holes which were visible on the glacier in the morning had turned into a continuous rift running for about two kilometers through the ice. Scientists had measured increased seismic activity near the glacier about two hours before the volcano started to erupt early on Wednesday. In March, another volcano erupted near the Eyjafjallajokull glacier but caused no casualties. The volcano, situated beneath Iceland's fifth largest glacier, has erupted five times since Iceland was settled in the ninth century.
UK airline passengers are facing disruption as an ash cloud from the Icelandic volcanic eruption drifts towards the country. Restrictions to UK airspace were affecting Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow flights. The cloud of ash is expected to move south. The eruption under a glacier in the Eyjafjallajoekull area of Iceland is the second in Iceland in less than a month. Aberdeen Airport is warning of "considerable impact" to both flight arrivals and departures.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

INDIA, BANGLADESH - A cyclone packing winds of more than 100 mph demolished ten of thousands of mud huts in northeastern India, killing at least 112 villagers. Authorities began distributing rice, dried fruits, water pouches and tarpaulin sheets Thursday to the victims of the deadly cyclone. Rescuers also cleared hundreds of uprooted trees blocking road access to the devastated region. Packing winds of more than 100 mph (160 kph), the cyclone struck close to midnight on Tuesday in parts of West Bengal and Bihar states, uprooting trees and snapping telephone and electricity lines. Hundreds of people were injured and many thousands left homeless. They were caught unaware as there was no cyclone warning from the weather department. The cyclone demolished nearly 50,000 mud huts in West Bengal and thousands more in Bihar.
In neighboring Bangladesh, tropical storms lashed dozens of villages in the northern part of the country Wednesday killing at least five people and injuring dozens. The storms in Rangpur and neighboring Lalmonirhat district also demolished about 500 mostly mud-and-straw huts. The weather office said the storms were not related to the cyclone that struck eastern India.
The storm was an extreme form of what is locally known as a "nor'wester"- a weather pattern that develops over the Bay of Bengal during the hot months of the year.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

RUSSIA - A powerful cyclone has left Russia’ s Sakhalin, where over 80 percent of the monthly norm of precipitation fell within 24 hours. The road between the settlements of Nogliki and Piltun is closed for vehicles because of snowfalls. The ferry link between Vanino and Kholmsk is closed because of a storm in the Tatar Strait. The cyclone is now moving to Kamchatka. A strong storm is raging in the Sea of Okhotsk.

The UK and continental Europe could be gripped by more frequent cold winters in the future as a result of low solar activity, say researchers. They identified a link between fewer sunspots and atmospheric conditions that "block" warm, westerly winds reaching Europe during winter months. But they added that the phenomenon only affected a limited region and would not alter the overall global warming trend. Studies of activity on the Sun, which provides data stretching back over 9,000 years, showed that it tended to "ramp up quite slowly over about a 300-year period, then drop quite quickly over about a 100-year period". The present decline started in 1985 and is currently about "half way back to a Maunder Minimum condition".
A "blocking" occurs when the jet stream forms an "s" shape over the north-eastern Atlantic, causing the wind to fold back over itself. There is one jet stream present in each hemisphere. "If you haven't got blocking, then the jet stream brings the mild, wet westerly winds to give us the weather we are famous for." But, if the jet stream is "blocked", and pushed further northwards, then cold, dry winds from the east flow over Europe, resulting in a sharp fall in temperatures. "This... 'blocking' does seem to be one of the things that can be modulated by solar activity."
Recent studies suggest that when solar activity is low, "blocking" events move eastwards from above north-eastern North America towards Europe, and become more stable. A prolonged "blocking" during the most recent winter was responsible for the long spell of freezing conditions that gripped Europe.
"There has been some quite simple modelling that indicated that heating the equatorial stratosphere with more UV would actually move the jet streams a little bit, by just a few degrees. That, of course, has the potential to change the behaviour of the jet streams - and that is the sort of thing that we think we are seeing."
While the current decline in solar activity is expected to continue in the coming decades, more frequent "blocking" episodes would not result in Europe being plunged into sub-zero temperatures every winter. "If we look at the last period of very low solar activity at the end of the 17th Century, we find the coldest winter on record in 1684, but the very next year - when solar activity was still low - saw third warmest winter in the entire 350-year (CET) record." A number of other meteorological factors also influenced the weather systems over Europe, so a number of parameters had to be met before a "blocking" occurred.

SPACE WEATHER -

WISCONSIN, MINNESOTA - 4/14/10 - Sky watchers in Wisconsin and northern Minnesota witnessed a brilliant green fireball streaking across the sky at approximately 10:05 pm CDT on April 14th. Images from a rooftop in Madison, Wisconsin, show a brilliant midair explosion.
A solar wind gust hit Earth's magnetic field on April 15th, sparking a G1-class (Kp=5) geomagnetic storm. Skies over Finland lit up with a beautiful mix of green and purple. "We had a good display for about an hour. This spring has been something special as the auroras seem to be very strong." They could become stronger in the nights ahead. A coronal mass ejection blasted into space by an erupting prominence on April 13th could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on or about April 17th. (Note: This supercedes earlier estimates of an April 15th arrival.) High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras.

HEALTH THREATS -

Flu activity at US colleges dropped to its lowest level since August, when surveillance began. The increases seen in southeastern states in February and March are also easing. The attack rate last week was 1 case per 10,000 students, a decrease of 38% from the previous week. No hospitalizations or deaths were reported, and the ACHA saw no evidence of sustained transmission. Vaccine uptake held at 8%, where it has been for several weeks.

USDA program to find harmful residues in meat is failing - The US Department of Agriculture's program to monitor the meat supply for traces of veterinary drugs, pesticides, and heavy metals is failing. "Together, FSIS, FDA, and EPA have not established thresholds for many dangerous substances (eg, copper or dioxin), which has resulted in meat with these substances being distributed in commerce. Additionally, FSIS does not attempt to recall meat, even when its tests have confirmed the excessive presence of veterinary drugs," such as antibiotics. The report says that the agencies should test for more substances, improve their sampling methods, find more efficient ways to approve new methods of testing for drug residues, and collaborate to set tolerances for more residues.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

May your passion be the kernel of corn stuck between your molars,
always reminding you there's something to tend to.
Jeb Dickerson

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 MICHOACAN, MEXICO
5.8 SOUTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA
5.1 SOUTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA

Yesterday -
4/13/10 -
5.2 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
6.8 SOUTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA
5.0 SOUTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA
5.0 TAIWAN
5.8 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.5 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.

CHINA - At least 67 people have died and others are trapped under rubble in Qinghai province after an earthquake said to be magnitude 6.9. The quake struck at 0749 (2349 GMT) 380km (240 miles) south-south-east of the city of Golmud, at a depth of 10km. The earthquake happened in a remote and sparsely populated area on the Tibetan plateau. The area is regularly hit by earthquakes.
Some media reports say most buildings in the town near the epicentre fell down. "A lot of one-storey houses have collapsed. Taller buildings have held up, but there are big cracks in them." Soldiers have been dispatched to save the people buried in the collapsed houses. "Everybody is out on the streets, standing in front of their houses, trying to find their family members."
China's Sichuan province suffered a huge earthquake disaster in 2008 - thousands of schoolchildren were among the 87,000 people killed or missing after the massive 12 May earthquake. Five million people also lost their homes, and officials estimate rebuilding work will take at least three years.

CALIFORNIA - Following the Easter 7.2 magnitude earthquake that struck Calexico, California, aftershocks continue to rattle nerves. The area is still under constant seismic activity from the two epicenters just south of Calexico: Guadalupe Victoria, Baja California, Mexico and just SSW of Selley, California. Since the major earthquake, over the last 168 hours they have recorded 20 aftershocks greater than 4.0 magnitude and 248 aftershocks greater than 3.0 magnitude in the Southern California region.
Caltech officials spent a good part of Monday fending off rumors apparently originating on Twitter, that scientists at the Pasadena institution were predicting a major quake in the next few days. Reports on the social media site over the weekend said that Caltech had sent students and faculty home. Scientists at Caltech said this week that the number of earthquakes greater than magnitude 4.0 in Southern California and Baja California has increased significantly in 2010. That increase, they said, could mean that more quakes are imminent - but does not necessarily mean that the Big One is on its way.

SPAIN - Something of a seismic anomaly occurred Monday in Spain. A magnitude 6.3 earthquake struck deep beneath Granada. While no damage or even significant ground shake were noted, the depth at 616 kilometers is a little enigmatic even according to the USGS. Seismologists in Spain, and at the USGS associate this very deep seismic activity with a powerful earthquake which struck Spain in 1954. Besides that magnitude 7.1 event, earthquakes at this depth, in this region, are not all that common. If you look at the occurrence map (see link) from the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre you can see, not only is Monday’s quake the largest in recent days, but it occurred deeper and a little outside other significant events. The depth being the most interesting variable. Several studies have been conducted with regard to very deep, high magnitude quakes in the Mediterranean basin. Counting Monday, there have only been 4 such quakes in something like the last 125 years.
One Spanish geologist predicted a month ago that a quake like that which devastated Chile would strike this region of Spain. Other experts negated his theory based on the fact the Chilean event occurred in a high seismic occurrence area. However, the same geologists noted that Spain is struck about every 100 years or so with a forceful event. The last was over 120 years ago. So far no aftershocks have been felt by the people in the region, or registered at monitoring stations.

FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -

AUSTRALIA - A severe weather warning has been issued for towns in Western Australia's southwest, as high tides threaten to cause flooding. Damaging winds and ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could result in the inundation of coastal low-lying areas in the Geography Bay area, including the towns of Busselton and Dunsborough. "Heavy rain may result in flash flooding however large hail is not expected." An earlier warning for the Perth metropolitan area predicting gale-force winds and heavy rain was cancelled. Heavy rain and strong winds caused storm damage in the capital last night. Homes damaged in last month's severe hail storm suffered further damage.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

U.S. - Between one and four hurricanes may hit the U.S. coast, according to a new forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, a team in the United Kingdom. They expect the Atlantic Hurricane Season to be 60 percent more active than the long-term average. The group now forecasts around 16 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major Category 3 hurricanes with winds of 111 mph to 130 mph. Nine hurricanes is one more than the eight predicted last week by the Colorado State University forecast team, which also said it foresees a higher than normal hurricane season. TSR’s forecast anticipates a year that has a high probability (77 percent) of being in the top 33 percent of all hurricane seasons in terms of activity. The probability of storms making landfall in the United States at an above-average level is 76 percent.
The meteorologists said the anticipated active season is mainly due to forecasted trade winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere during the August to September timeframes, which enhances the ability for the atmosphere to generate tropical low pressure areas, as well as expected above-average sea surface temperatures. They cited “anomalous warming of the waters in the Atlantic Main Development Region, a region that lies between the Cape Verde Islands and the Caribbean Lesser Antilles,” as a major factor in the storm activity. The July to September trade wind speed will be influencing the spinning up of storms (cyclonic vorticity) in the main hurricane track region and the August to September main storm development region sea surface temperature provides heat and moisture to power incipient storms in that main track region.

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

When the pain is great enough, we will let anyone be doctor.
Mignon McLaughlin

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.5 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.

Yesterday -
4/12/10 -
5.6 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND
5.1 SVALBARD REGION

VOLCANOES -

ICELAND - The latest volcanic eruption is coming to an end, scientists said Monday. Last month, the Eyjafjallajokull volcano began erupting after almost 200 years of silence, threatening floods and earthquakes but drawing thousands of adventurous tourists to the site where ash and red-hot lava spewed from a crater between two glaciers. "The volcanic activity has essentially stopped. I believe the eruption has ended." A University of Iceland geologist said activity at the volcano had declined steeply in the last couple of days, although "it's too early to write its death certificate."
Iceland is well accustomed to natural disasters and seismic drama. The island sits on a volcanic hot spot in the Atlantic's mid-oceanic ridge, and eruptions have occurred frequently throughout the country's history, triggered when the Earth's plates move and when magma from deep underground pushes its way to the surface. The Eyjafjallajokull eruption is the country's first since 2004, and the most dramatic since Hekla, Iceland's most active volcano, blew its top in 2000. Scientists say history has shown that when Eyjafjallajokull erupts, the much bigger Katla volcano nearby often follows within days or months. Katla is located under the vast Myrdalsjokull icecap, and an eruption could cause widespread flooding. The last major eruption took place in 1918, and vulcanologists say a new blast is overdue.
"A large eruption of Katla could disrupt aviation seriously in the North Atlantic. It has the potential to cause a lot of damage and disruption. But there is very little seismic activity near Katla. I see no reason to expect Katla to do anything in the near future."

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

ITALY - At least 9 people were killed and scores more injured after a landslide in northern Italy knocked a train off its tracks and left one carriage balanced precariously over a river. The derailment occurred in a gorge near the winter sports town of Merano, close to the Austrian border. The front carriage was left hanging over a river and rescuers had to use cables to prevent the whole train from dropping into the River Adige below. Amazingly the train was stopped from going over the edge by two pine trees that had been dragged down by the landslide. Authorities said that 28 people had been injured. One of the train's three carriages was filled with mud from the landslide, and rescuers were digging frantically to reach the victims. The death toll, which was revised down from 11 because of an error, was not final, since there could still be someone buried in the mud. "It has a high possibility that there will be other victims. The situation is very difficult, it is a horrific scene with one carriage balanced on the edge over the River Adige." The landslide was caused by an irrigation pipe that burst open, sending rocks, debris and water down on to the oncoming train.

SPACE WEATHER -
On Saturday, April 11th, a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field. The impact caused a G2-class geomagnetic storm and, for the first time this year, ignited auroras over the continental United States. "The lights were bright enough to produce a reflection from the surface of Lake Superior." Northern Lights were also spotted in Maine, Vermont, Wisonsin and Minnesota. Mostly the lights were dim to the naked eye and required a photographic exposure of some tens of seconds for full effect. "Lower 48" sightings of auroras are a sign: The deep solar minimum of 2008-2009 has come to an end and a new solar cycle is gaining strength. If forecasters are correct, Solar Max is just two to three years away. (photos)

HEALTH THREATS -

Experts urge world not to forget other flu threats - Infectious disease experts warned against complacency in fighting influenza and other illnesses. A Dutch virologist said he worried that complacency due to the mild nature of the pandemic virus could hamper efforts to control the more lethal H5N1 avian influenza. Experts warned governments to expect stronger seasonal flu outbreaks in the wake of the pandemic.

Monday, April 12, 2010

Things are entirely what they appear to be
and behind them... there is nothing.
Jean Paul Sartre

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.6 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND
5.1 SVALBARD REGION

Yesterday -
4/11/10 -
5.5 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
6.3 SPAIN
5.2 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
6.8 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.4 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.5 TAIWAN REGION
5.2 NEAR THE COAST OF DJIBOUTI
5.0 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.8 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

Are earthquakes becoming more frequent? - "This is a question that every seismologist is used to. I was asked it 30 years ago. Thanks to large quakes in Haiti and Chile — not to mention 7-plus magnitude quakes in Indonesia and Baja California over the past week — I’ve been asked it a lot lately. And the answer is no. You would think this would be good news, but sometimes people seem faintly disappointed when they hear it. It’s as if a dose of disaster makes life more interesting.
It’s true that more earthquakes are recorded than used to be the case, but that’s simply because there are more monitoring stations that are able to pick up minor earthquakes that once went undetected. If we compare the average global rates of large earthquakes, we find that these are stable as far back as we can trace them. On average, we record an earthquake with a magnitude over 6 every three days or so, and over 7 at least once a month.
Why then, does it sometimes seem they are more common occurrences? There are two reasons for this. First, people notice it when earthquakes happen in populated places. A big earthquake in California is news; a big earthquake in the Southern Ocean is noticed only by seismologists. So a run of earthquakes that by chance hit populated places makes it look as though the rate has increased, even if it hasn’t.
The second reason is that in any semi-random process, you get clustering. Throw enough dice, and sometimes you’ll get several sixes in a row. People notice the clusters; they don’t notice the gaps in between. No one ever asks me during the quiet periods if earthquakes are becoming less frequent. Also, people tend to have short memories; they notice the current cluster, but don’t remember the previous one."

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -
PERU - Around 50 people have suffered injuries in Peru after part of a glacier broke off and burst the Hualcan River banks in a disaster the local governor attributed to climate change. The mass of glacial ice and rock fell into the so-called "513 lake" in the northern Ancash region, causing a ripple effect down the Hualcan, destroying 20 nearby homes. "Because of global warming the glaciers are going to detach and fall on these overflowing lakes. This is what happened today." A 2009 World Bank-published report warned Andean glaciers and the region's permanently snow-covered peaks could disappear in 20 years if no measures were taken to tackle climate change. According to the report, in the last 35 years Peru's glaciers have shrunk by 22 per cent, leading to a 12 per cent loss in the amount of fresh water reaching the coast.

Sunday, April 11, 2010

Proverbs often contradict one another,
as any reader soon discovers.
The sagacity that advises us to look before we leap
promptly warns us that if we hesitate we are lost;
that absence makes the heart grow fonder,
but out of sight, out of mind.
Leo Rosten

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.5 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.5 TAIWAN REGION
5.2 NEAR THE COAST OF DJIBOUTI
5.0 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.3 VANUATU

Yesterday -
4/10/10 -
5.2 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA
5.0 MAULE, CHILE
5.9 FIJI REGION
5.4 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.1 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
5.1 SOUTHEAST OF EASTER ISLAND
4/9/10 -
5.0 OFF COAST OF ECUADOR
5.1 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
5.7 LA RIOJA, ARGENTINA
5.7 LA RIOJA, ARGENTINA
5.0 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.4 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.1 TONGA

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

BRAZIL - Rio de Janeiro Hit by Massive Storm Surge - One week after Rio De Janeiro suffered from torrential rains and deadly mudslides, the Brazilian city was dealt extreme waves and a massive storm surge. A storm surge is an UNUSUAL rise in sea level on the coast due to a low pressure weather system and accompanying high winds. An extra-tropical cyclone, or a storm that forms outside the tropics, formed along the coast of Rio and caused the storm surge. The features of this storm are similar to the Nor'easter that occurs along the East Coast of the U.S.
"Extra-tropical cyclones are common in the South Atlantic. But they usually form along the coast of Argentina and in the Plata region." Sometimes, storm surges affect the southern coast of Brazil but if the cyclone is very deep, the surge may reach the Southeast region. "As this system developed much more to the North than usual, the surge didn't have an impact in the South, but it was a direct hit for Sao Paulo and mainly Rio." (map of height of waves along Brazil's coast)

HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

BRAZIL - over 400 people are now feared dead in some of the worst flooding to swamp Brazil in decades. At dawn, rescuers pulled four more bodies from the thick mound of dirt and debris in the Niteroi shantytown of Morro do Bumba, bringing the updated death toll to 219, while another 200 people were believed to be buried alive in the slum, itself precariously perched atop a garbage dump. About 60 hours after THE HEAVIEST RAINS IN HALF A CENTURY unleashed floods and mudslides, rescue workers appeared far from having finished the work of recovering bodies. Niteroi was hardest hit, with at least 134 dead. Across the bay, another 60 were found in Rio de Janeiro. The heavy rain forced about 50,000 people to leave their homes, either because their homes were damaged or because they were ordered to leave due to fear of fresh landslides. Two cracks in the rocky soil made the mound move and pushed a huge amount of rubbish, saturated with water that had trapped methane gas, down the hill. Firefighters working at the site since Wednesday, said there was little chance of finding new survivors after part of the hillside fell away and swallowed everything in its path, including 50 houses, a day-care centre and a pizzeria. A handful of people were rescued from the mud in the few hours after the landslide. Experts blamed government "complacency" for allowing the country's poorest to build housing haphazardly in areas at risk of natural disasters, such as on the sides of steep hills. After five days of rains, aggravated by numerous floods in the region, the sun was shining yesterday in Rio.

SPACE WEATHER -

On Saturday morning, the sun had a comet for breakfast. The icy visitor from the outer solar system appeared with no warning on April 9th and plunged into the sun during the early hours of April 10th. This has been an active year for big, bright sungrazers. There was one on Jan. 4th, one on March 12th, and now one Saturday. Normally we see no more than 3 or 4 bright ones in a whole year; now we're seeing them almost once a month. It could be a statistical fluctuation or, maybe, a swarm of Kreutz fragments is nearing perihelion (closest approach to the sun).
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time. As of April 11, 2010 there were 1117 potentially hazardous asteroids detected.
A coronal mass ejection (CME) is heading toward Earth, due to arrive on or about April 12th. NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of polar geomagnetic activity when the cloud hits. High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras.

HEALTH THREATS -

Canada has shortened the expiration date on its adjuvanted H1N1 vaccine from 18 to 6 months, due to nonsafety-related declines in H1N1 antigen in some lots. Subsequent testing of the GlaxoSmithKline vaccine detected the potency issue, which has also been found in some US vaccine lots. Health officials assured the public that vaccines already administered provide sufficient protection.

CDC sees little change in low H1N1 levels - The incidence of H1N1 flu has sunk to low levels in most of the United States. The three southeastern states about which the CDC raised the alarm a week ago - Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina - continue to report regional flu activity. However, visits to doctors, lab-confirmed hospitalizations, and the proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza all declined.