Monday, November 24, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster updates.

**Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most.**
Dostoevsky

I was unable to update the webpage last week as my father had another stroke. He's doing ok, but with a long recovery period ahead.

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
None 5.0 or larger.

Yesterday, 11/23/14 -
5.0 OFF COAST OF OREGON
5.0 EAST OF NORTH ISLAND, N.Z.
5.2 OFF COAST OF OREGON

11/22/14 -
5.6 ROMANIA
5.5 CENTRAL AFGHANISTAN
6.2 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
6.0 WESTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.0 CENTRAL PERU
5.0 OFF COAST OF TARAPACA, CHILE
5.3 VANUATU

11/21/14 -
6.6 MOLUCCA SEA
5.2 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
5.8 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

11/20/14 -
5.6 MYANMAR-INDIA BORDER REGION
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.5 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

11/19/14 -
5.2 TAIWAN REGION
5.2 KYUSHU, JAPAN
5.0 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
5.3 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.2 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.0 KEP. TANIMBAR REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 TIMOR REGION, INDONESIA

11/18/14 -
5.1 TONGA REGION
5.0 KYUSHU, JAPAN
5.0 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.2 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.3 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.8 MOLUCCA SEA
5.7 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

11/17/14 -
5.3 GREECE
5.2 GREECE
5.1 FLORES SEA
6.2 PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDS REGION
5.3 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.4 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.2 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.4 SOUTHEAST OF EASTER ISLAND
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.5 MYANMAR
5.3 D'ENTRECASTEAUX ISLANDS REGION
5.9 D'ENTRECASTEAUX ISLANDS REGION

Strong Quake in West China Kills 2; 54 Hurt.

Japan - The damage from an overnight earthquake in a mountainous area of central Japan that hosted the 1998 winter Olympics proved more extensive than initially thought. A daylight assessment Sunday found at least 50 homes destroyed in two villages, and 41 people injured across the region, including seven seriously, mostly with broken bones.
The magnitude-6.7 earthquake struck shortly after 10 p.m. Saturday west of Nagano city at a depth of 5 kilometers (3 miles). The U.S. Geological Survey recorded a magnitude of 6.2. The hardest-hit area appeared to be Hakuba, which hosted events in the 1998 winter games. At least 43 homes were destroyed there, and 17 people injured. Another seven homes were lost in Otari, a nearby village to the north. Non-residential buildings were also destroyed, with officials assessing the extent.
Japanese television footage showed buildings in various states of collapse, some flattened and others leaning to one side, and deep cracks in the roads. A landslide spilled onto a railroad track, forcing service to stop. About 200 people from Hakuba and Otari had evacuated to shelters. More than 20 people trapped under collapsed houses were rescued.
The quake has been followed by more than 60 aftershocks, and Meteorological Agency officials urged residents to watch out for landslides. The area was struck by a magnitude-6.7 earthquake the day after the huge March 2011 quake. (video at link)

VOLCANOES -
Cape Verde orders evacuation after Fogo volcano erupts - The volcano in the Cape Verde archipelago off the coast of West Africa erupted on Sunday morning. A photograph posted on the local RTC TV station website showed a huge plume of smoke rising into the sky, visible from the capital Praia on a neighbouring island.
"Things could deteriorate in the coming moments, in the coming hours," said a statement on the government website. "We've called on people to heed the authorities' instructions. People should abandon Cha das Caldeiras," referring to a hillside community. It was not immediately clear if there were injuries or deaths following the eruption.
The volcano last erupted in 1995, causing minor damage. A larger eruption occurred in 1951. The government planned to send a plane providing assistance to residents. The former Portuguese colony is located about 600 km (400 miles) off the coast of Senegal. Fogo's volcanic peak, surrounded by vineyards, is a hiking destination.

TROPICAL STORMS -

No current tropical storms.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Flood Threat Looms for N.Y. After Arctic Onslaught - Flood warnings were in effect for parts of New York on Sunday, with temperatures heating up as the region dug out from a massive and deadly snowfall that dumped seven feet of snow on the Buffalo area and killed at least 13 people. Temperatures were expected to climb through the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast on Sunday and Monday, with some areas seeing highs in the 60s and possibly even the 70s in the South.
Video

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

October 2014: Earth's Third Consecutive Warmest Month ON RECORD - October 2014 was the warmest October on record, and the year-to-date-period January - October was Earth's warmest such period since record keeping began in 1880.

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Corn Might Be a Culprit for CO2 Releasing into the Atmosphere - Corn, Wheat, Rice, and Soybean Carbon Dioxide causing Climate Change. The United Nations and world governments are blaming industrial facilities and greenhouse gas emissions as contributing to climate change, but a new study has revealed that four crops, corn, rice, wheat and soybean, are playing large roles in the climate change game. There has been a great shift in agriculture in the last five decades. We have learned how to create more crops and make production more efficient, but the question now is how will crops change the atmosphere of the future?
A new study shows that levels of Carbon dioxide will be on the rise in the Northern Hemisphere, due to summer heat and the tail-end of the growing season. This will release CO2 in parts of the growing season. "We know that crops have increased in productivity over this time period and they were in the right place to be influencing this." While the team of researchers found that corn, soybeans, wheat and rice account for the highest percentage of crops that release maximum CO2; the likeliest culprit will be corn.
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Monday, November 17, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster updates.

**Talking nonsense is man's only privilege that distinguishes him from all other organisms.**
Dostoevsky

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.0 FIJI
5.5 MYANMAR
5.9 D'ENTRECASTEAUX ISLANDS REGION

Yesterday, 11/16/14 -
6.7 OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z.
5.4 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 OFF COAST OF COSTA RICA
5.0 ICELAND

11-15-14 -
5.0 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.4 MOLUCCA SEA
5.4 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.8 MOLUCCA SEA
7.1 MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 SOUTHERN PERU
5.4 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU

11-14-14 -
5.1 SOUTHERN PERU
5.4 ICELAND5.1 SOUTHERN PERU
5.0 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.3 KURIL ISLANDS
5.2 KYRGYZSTAN

7.1 quake hits Indonesia, causes small tsunami - A strong undersea earthquake hit eastern Indonesia on Saturday, triggering a small tsunami and some panic but no casualties or major damage. The 7.1 quake occurred west of Halmahera island, which is about four hours' flight from the capital, Jakarta.
Indonesia's meteorological agency said a tsunami wave of 9 centimeters (3.54 inches) washed onto the small island of Jailolo but caused no damage. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center later lifted its advisory for potential hazardous waves for coastal communities. The quake was strongly felt in several cities in eastern Indonesia, sending many people to run from homes and other buildings.
The world's largest archipelago, Indonesia is prone to earthquakes due to its location on the Pacific "Ring of Fire," an arc of volcanoes and fault lines in the Pacific Basin. In 2004, a monster quake off the tip of Sumatra Island triggered a tsunami that killed 230,000 people in a dozen countries. Most of the deaths were on Sumatra.

VOLCANOES -
Alaska volcanic eruption intensifies; lava advances in Hawaii. Mt. Pavlof volcano in the Alaska Peninsula launched an ash plume 30,000 feet into the air on Saturday morning, while officials in Hawaii say lava continues to advance on a town that has been sitting in the path of a slow-moving molten slide since June.
Mt. Pavlof, which has been erupting since Wednesday, continues to see intense seismic activity, and pilots in the area were reporting ash clouds as high as 30,000 feet above sea level. The Federal Aviation Administration has yet to impose flight restrictions in the area, but the agency did issue several notices to pilots regarding the eruption.
In Hawaii, the state's civil defense agency said Saturday that the lava flow from Kilauea volcano that had advanced slowly on the town of Pahoa since June was continuing to edge closer, but still did not pose an immediate threat to residents. The lava, which has come within 200 yards of Pahoa Village Road in recent weeks, has smothered part of a cemetery and set fire to two structures, but there are no other buildings in its immediate vicinity. In a statement issued Saturday, Hawaii's civil defense agency said several "active breakouts" from the lava flow were burning asphalt and vegetation, and heavy smoke conditions could be persistent in the area. Many residents of Pahoa have evacuated or are prepared to do so.

TROPICAL STORMS -

* In the South Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone Adjali is located approximately 334 nm west-southwest of Diego Garcia.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Storms claim lives in France and Italy - Storms and heavy rains have battered parts of western Europe, causing a number of fatalities. Three members of one family were killed in the south of France when their car was swept away. In Italy, some towns have been evacuated after heavy rain burst river banks and flooded streets. (video)
Deadly mudslides engulf homes in Switzerland and Italy - At least four people have been killed in landslides in southern Switzerland and northern Italy following days of torrential rain. Two women died when a wall of mud destroyed a house near the Swiss town of Lugano on Sunday. Over the border, a pensioner and his granddaughter were killed when a mudslide engulfed their home. The heavy rain is expected to continue across the region, and both countries have issued major flood alerts. The levels of lakes Lugano and Maggiore, seen below, are already dangerously high. (photos & video at link)
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Thursday, November 13, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster updates.

**Talking nonsense is man's only privilege that distinguishes him from all other organisms."
Dostoevsky

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.1 GOLFO DE FONSECA, HONDURAS
5.5 VANUATU
5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
6.0 FIJI REGION

Yesterday, 11-12-14 -
5.0 OWEN FRACTURE ZONE REGION
5.5 OFF COAST OF ECUADOR
5.1 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

11-11-14 -
5.2 BANDA SEA
5.0 SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.0 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.3 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.0 LAKE TANGANYIKA REGION

Earthquake swarm in remote Nevada region intensifies - An earthquake swarm that started rocking a secluded region in northwest Nevada this summer intensified over the past week, geology officials said on Wednesday. The swarm, centered just off the state's northwest border some 40 miles (65 km) southeast of Lakeview, Oregon, started July 12 and is being caused by stretching of the Earth's crust.
Two magnitude 4.7 quakes, and over 50 magnitude 3 or stronger temblors have occurred over the past week, representing more seismic activity than in recent months combined. "I've talked to people whose houses are very near this epicenter, and they are already getting shaken up." It would likely take significantly stronger quakes to damage nearby structures or surrounding communities.
The Laboratory said there have been 101 tremors of a magnitude 3 or larger, and eight that clocked in at a magnitude 4 or stronger since the swarm first appeared. Following swarms like these there is a slight increase in the likelihood that a larger earthquake will happen, the Laboratory said, though it is impossible to predict whether such a quake would occur. The current swarm resembles one that happened in Reno, Nevada, in 2008 that shook the area over a two-month stretch with increasingly strong temblors leading to a magnitude 5 quake that caused moderate damage in the area,

4.8 quake shakes Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas - A magnitude-4.8 earthquake Wednesday shook up parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas, the strongest of eight temblors that rattled the seismically active region over 24 hours.

TROPICAL STORMS -

No current tropical storms.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Ontario and Quebec hit by Arctic blast - Frigid temperatures and snow have expanded into Ontario and Quebec as a wave of cold air moves east. Snow has begun falling in the north of Ontario, and freezing rain is forecast in parts of Quebec. The sharply cooler temperatures are a result of frigid air pushed in by a powerful storm that hit Alaska with hurricane-force winds.
Some areas of the US and Canada have seen temperatures fall by as much as 22C (40F) in days. Almost three feet (92cm) of snow fell in Michigan's upper peninsula on Monday and Tuesday, while up to 18in fell in northern Wisconsin, and parts of central Minnesota saw more than 16in. The cold air is expected to sharply cool off eastern Canada and the eastern US later in the week, repeating the quick change felt across North America. Toronto could see some snow on Thursday, after highs of 17C on Tuesday.
Wintry weather has stopped further west in Canada, but cities like Edmonton and Calgary continued to feel the chill, expecting high temperatures of -14C. High winds and blowing snow on Wednesday caused several accidents in Winnipeg. Snow from the weather system has also been blamed for accidents that killed two in Minnesota.

Wyoming Hits -26°F in Arctic Blast; 3 Feet of Snow in Michigan's Upper Peninsula - A bitter cold blast of Arctic air more typical of late December is plunging south over the Midwest, and will immerse most of the eastern two-thirds of the country in December-like cold for much of the coming week. Casper, Wyoming bottomed out Wednesday morning at a numbing -26°F, their coldest November temperature since weather records began in 1937. Casper's previous November record cold temperature was -21°F, set on Nov. 23, 1985.
Laramie, Wyoming hit -22°F Wednesday morning, a record low for the date, and Yellowstone hit -20°F. The storm brought very strong winds with it, with several mountaintop locations recording wind gusts in excess of 80 mph earlier this week: 81 mph at Pikes Peak, Colorado, and 84 mph at Snowbasin, Utah. According to the Wednesday morning NOAA Storm Summary, a whopping three feet of snow (36.1") fell at Ishpeming in Michigan's Upper Peninsula over the past three days, and numerous locations in Michigan received more than 20" of snow, including Marquette (20") and Negaunee (32.5".)
Snow amounts in North Central Minnesota were as high as 16.5", and northern Wisconsin got a peak of 26" at Gile. The storm and associated intense cold is being triggered by an usually extreme jet stream pattern, featuring a sharp ridge of high pressure over Alaska and a deep trough of low pressure diving to the south over the Central United States. This extreme jet stream pattern is due, in part, to the influence of Super Typhoon Nuri, which caused a ripple effect on the jet stream after the typhoon became one of the most powerful extratropical storms ever recorded in the waters to the west of Alaska last Saturday.

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS

World is crossing malnutrition red line, report warns. Most countries in the world are facing a serious public health problem as a result of malnutrition, a report warns.
The Global Nutrition Report said every nation except China had crossed a "malnutrition red line", suffering from too much or too little nutrition. Globally, malnutrition led to "11% of GDP being squandered as a result of lives lost, less learning, less earning and days lost to illness." Malnutrition is an invisible thing, unless it is very extreme. This invisibility stops action happening but it does not stop bad things happening to the children. It does not stop preventing the children's brains from developing; it does not stop their immune systems from not developing. It is a silent crisis and we are trying to raise the awareness of the extent of malnutrition and the damage it does."
The UN World Food Programme estimates that poor nutrition causes nearly half of deaths in children aged under five - 3.1 million children each year.
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Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster updates.

**Do a man dirt, yourself you hurt.**
Dostoevsky

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.2 NORTHWEST OF KURIL ISLANDS
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.3 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.0 LAKE TANGANYIKA REGION

Yesterday, 11/10/14 -
5.2 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.6 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.0 OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z
5.4 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.5 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
6.1 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.4 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.0 MID-INDIAN RIDGE

11/9/14 -
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

11/8/14 -
5.2 GREECE
5.3 FIJI REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -

No current tropical storms.

El Niño Temperatures Highest Since 2012, but NOAA Drops El Niño Odds - NOAA dropped their odds of an El Niño event forming this winter from 67% in their October outlook to 58% in their November outlook, but a surge of warm water over the equatorial Eastern Pacific over the past week could signal the onset of El Niño.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

The winter of 2014 - 2015 is off to an early start over the Northern Plains, where a December-like blast of Arctic air is bringing heavy snows and wintery cold. The early season cold air outbreak is due, in part, to the influence of Super Typhoon Nuri, which caused a ripple effect on the jet stream when the remains of the typhoon "bombed" over the weekend into one of the most intense extratropical storms ever observed in the waters west of Alaska.
This superstorm forced the jet stream to bulge far to the north over western North America, bringing a strong ridge of high pressure responsible for NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES in California, Nevada, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Washington over the weekend. A compensating southwards dip in the jet is now materializing over the North Central U.S., where an UNUSUALLY POWERFUL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE is pushing southeastwards. This trough will give most of the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. high temperatures 10 - 20°F below average by late in the week.

Cold Snap Hits Upper Midwest, Rockies - Powerful Storm Heads East From Alaska, Dropping Temperatures and Leaving Heavy Snow.

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Friday, November 7, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster updates.

**The beauty you see in me is a reflection of you.**
Rumi

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 GREECE
5.2 ICELAND
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
6.6 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
5.4 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

Yesterday, 11/4/14 -
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

VOLCANOES -
Philippines - Mayon Volcano’s current condition remains unstable due to slow but sustained ground deformation of the edifice by subsurface magma since the start of unrest this year. This is indicated by sustained swelling or inflation of the edifice, as measured by precise leveling on October 20-27, relative to both the third week of October 2014 and baseline measurements beginning 2010.
Electronic tilt data from the continuous network on the northwest flank similarly indicate continuing inflation of the edifice since August 2014, succeeding a previous inflation event in June to July 2014. These inflation events correspond to batches of magma (approximately 107 cubic meters) slowly being intruded at depth but that have yet to be erupted at the crater, and therefore posing threat of eventual hazardous eruption at an unknown time in the near future.
Mayon Volcano’s alert status remains at Alert Level 3. At this present stage, potentially eruptible magma has already been intruded and continues to be intruded beneath the edifice. At any given time in the following weeks to months, this magma can eventually be erupted quietly as lava flows or explosively as vertical eruption columns and pyroclastic flows or both.

TROPICAL STORMS -

No current tropical storms.

A RARE "Medicane" - a hybrid storm with characteristics of both a tropical storm and an extratropical storm - formed over the South Central Mediterranean Sea on Friday and moved over the island of Malta, bringing them tropical storm- like conditions.
Winds at the Luqa, Malta Airport looked suspiciously like what one would observe with a tropical storm passing overhead - a double peak with a near-calm in between, with the pressure falling to 984 mb during the calm. Winds peaked in Malta at 47 mph, gusting to 66 mph, at 6:37 pm local time, and the island was lashed with flooding rains. At least one funnel cloud was also observed.
A Personal Weather Station on the north coast of Malta recorded sustained winds of 69 mph, gusting to 96 mph, with a minimum pressure of 979 mb. Lampedusa e Linosa, Italy, an island between Malta and Tunisa: sustained at 53 mph, gusting to 84 mph. A PWS on Linosa Island recorded a minimum pressure of 982 mb and wind gust to 61 mph. As of late Friday night, the storm was moving northwards along the east coast of Sicily, Italy, bringing them heavy rain and strong winds. (photos & video at link)
Much of Italy remains on extreme weather alert - Disruption continues, passer-by hurt as tree falls in Rome. Much of Italy remained on maximum weather alert on Friday as the wave of storms and torrential rain that has caused huge disruption and floods in many areas continued.
Schools in Rome reopened as the level of alert there was lowered from red to orange, but students in other parts of the country, including the city of Frosinone near the capital and Catania in Sicily, had the day off as a precaution with storms forecast to arrive. Disruption also continued in Rome, despite the lowering of the alert, with floods causing one metro station to close on Friday, after four were temporarily shut on Thursday, and a woman passer-by was hurt when a tree fell amid torrential rain. The bad weather also contributed to major traffic congestion in the city, although the mayhem that had been feared due to "water bombs" of torrential rain did not materialise. This led to major controversy as to whether the authorities' decision to close Rome's schools and monuments on Thursday was excessive.
The bad weather system, which hit northern Italy first this week, causing massive damage and flooding in the Tuscan city of Carrara, has extended southwards. Strong winds and rain lashed Calabria and Puglia, while sea connections between Naples and the islands of Capri were suspended.

Alaska storm becomes STRONGEST IN BERING SEA HISTORY - A massive storm in the Bering Sea, off the western Alaska coast and to the east of Russia, strengthened enough to be considered the strongest storm that the turbulent region has ever seen. It may not be an official record, however, as the minimum central pressure of 924 millibars (mb) was estimated by meteorologists, since the storm is over the open ocean off the Kamchatka Peninsula.
The previous record-lowest sea level pressure in a Bering Sea storm was 925 mb, set in October 1977 in Dutch Harbor, Alaska. This storm also likely sets a record for the strongest storm observed in the North Pacific Ocean, although the relatively sparse data for that region makes it possible that there were some stronger systems that were missed by ships or surface observing stations. In general, the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm.
The Bering Sea storm, which was accurately predicted by all the major computer models in use by forecasters worldwide, underwent a period of rapid intensification that is known as "bombogenesis," which means its central air pressure dropped by at least 24 mb in 24 hours. In this case, the storm's pressure dropped by far more than that, as it exploded from a 970 mb low pressure area on Thursday to a 924 mb monster by late Friday night, local time.
The storm contains the remnants of Typhoon Nuri, which was once the second-most intense typhoon of the 2014 Northwest Pacific season. Nuri's energy combined with an UNUSUALLY STRONG JET STREAM to create the conditions necessary for a monster storm near Alaska. The typhoon and the ongoing massive storm are going to help usher in a dramatic weather pattern change across North America, pushing unusually mild air into Alaska and northern Canada, while ejecting wave after wave of brutally cold air into much of the eastern U.S.
The closest weather-observing buoy to the storm center, which was still at least 200 miles away from the center, was reporting a pressure of 948 mb just before 5 a.m., Alaska time. In comparison, the lowest air pressure reading during Hurricane Sandy when it made landfall in New Jersey was 940 mb.
The storm has brought hurricane-force winds and extraordinarily high waves to several of the westernmost islands in the Aleutian Island chain. These effects occurred despite that fact that the storm reached its peak intensity hundreds of miles to the northwest of these islands, closer to Russia than Alaska. Shemya, Alaska, has been rocked by more than 24 straight hours of sustained winds greater than 40 miles per hour, with frequent gusts close to 100 miles per hour.
The storm will help reconfigure the jet stream, which is a river of air at high altitudes that blows from west to east across the Northern Hemisphere, from Alaska all the way to Europe in the coming days. A major dip, or trough, in the jet stream is forecast to form over the Midwest and East Coast, allowing a piece of — yes, you guessed it — the polar vortex to slip southward. This will result in UNUSUAL COLD, and potentially snowy conditions in some areas, for at least the next two weeks. (GRAPHICS AT LINK)

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Floods displace at least 6000 after heavy rain in northern Haiti, Dominican Republic - In the Dominican Republic, authorities say more than 2,000 people were displaced by floods and mudslides. The storm is blamed for 12 deaths in the two countries and Puerto Rico.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Arctic Blast via Polar Vortex to Chill 42 US States - As the polar vortex gets displaced to the south, the door will open for arctic air to plunge over the most of the United States as the new week progresses. Only the Southwest, Hawaii, Alaska and South Florida will escape the grip of the upcoming arctic blast that the polar vortex can be blamed for.
"The polar vortex is a large pocket of very cold air, typically the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere, which sits over the polar region. Occasionally, this pocket of very cold air can get dislodged farther south than normal, leading to cold outbreaks in Canada and the U.S."
For this current outbreak, the harshest cold in relation to normal will encompass the northern Rockies and Plains. However, temperatures will also plummet throughout the Northwest and to the Gulf Coast and I-95 corridor. The arctic blast will drop into the northern Rockies on Monday, accompanied by a snowstorm on its leading edge, then will spread across the Northwest and Plains through Wednesday.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

Brazil's biggest city desperate for water as drought causes problems for more than 10 million people in southeast. Sao Paulo is suffering THE WORST DROUGHT TO HIT SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL IN MORE THAN EIGHT DECADES.
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Thursday, November 6, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster updates.

**Nothing in this world is harder than speaking the truth, nothing easier than flattery.**
Dostoevsky

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.3 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

Yesterday, 11/5/14 -
5.1 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 GUAM REGION

11/4/14 -
5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.2 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA

Oregon - Earthquake swarm near Lakeview: 'Slight' increase in likelihood of larger quake, scientists say. Seismologists in Nevada, Oregon and California continue to monitor an intense swarm of earthquakes about 40 miles southeast of Lakeview, Oregon, in the Nevada desert.
The magnitude 4.6 temblor late Tuesday night was followed by several quakes or magnitude 3 or greater, officials said. The area is so remote only four people reported feeling Tuesday's earthquake. There have been earthquakes of magnitude 4 or greater in the same area in the past week, and 42 quakes greater than magnitude 3 in the past three months. All told, there have been 719 earthquakes in the area, mostly magnitude 2 to 3, since mid-July.
Does the swarm of earthquakes signal that a larger, more damaging quake is in the offing? Using historic data as a model, scientists said the swarm of quakes does slightly increase the likelihood of a larger earthquake. The quakes are occurring in an area of north Washoe County in Nevada that's not only remote, but also contains a sparse network of automated monitors. Those add to the difficulty of tracking seismic activity.
The Great Basin area where the swarm is occurring is crisscrossed by fault lines. In 1968, a swarm of earthquakes near Adel, 30 miles east of Lakeview, included three earthquakes with a magnitude of 5. The Adel quakes caused moderate damage. A similar swarm to Adel and the recent spate of temblors also resembles the "Mogul-Somersett" swarm in west Reno in 2008. That swarm included a magnitude 5 quake that also caused moderate damage.
Nevada includes "one of the most seismically active regions in the United States. Along with California and Alaska, Nevada ranks in the top three states subject to the most large earthquakes over the last 150 years." At 6:16 a.m. Feb. 21, 2008, a magnitude 6 quake near Wells, Nevada, injured three people, heavily damaged 20 buildings and damaged another 700 structures. Nevada experienced a significant round of major quakes between between 1915 and 1954, finishing with magnitude 6.6 and 7.1 earthquakes in 1954. The area where the sequence of earthquakes occurred was named the Central Nevada Seismic Belt. (videos at link)

VOLCANOES -
Some Hawaii Residents Are Trying To Fight Lava With Garden Hose - On Hawaii's Big Island, a 2,000-degree river of lava is slowly crawling through the Pahoa Village, threatening the homes of 800 or more residents. While state and government officials have intentionally done nothing to stop, divert or obstruct the lava flow (citing the potential risks and cultural sensitivities), some homeowners are trying anything they can to save their homes from fiery destruction. (video at link)

TROPICAL STORMS -

* In the North Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 05b (Five) is located approximately 450 nm east of Chennai, India.
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As It Turns Extra-Tropical, Typhoon Nuri Could Challenge All-Time Record - For 24 hours over the weekend, Nuri was a category 5 monster storm with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph, tying with Typhoon Vongfong as the strongest cyclone of the season.
But Nuri may actually make a name for itself after it loses its tropical characteristics when it moves north into the Bering Sea. When it gets there, all the warm, tropical air it's pushing around will crash into a mountain of cold air and cause a violent explosion of meteorological energy that could propel this storm into history. The National Weather Service in Anchorage says that during that so-called "bombogenesis" the storm's central pressure — an important measure of intensity — will deepen from 970 MB late Thursday to between 918 to 922 MB late Friday. The Aleutian Islands will be pummeled with 40 to 50 foot waves and wind gusts of up to 100 mph. This storm is so strong that it will also cause the jet stream to plunge south, bringing cold temperatures to a huge part of the U.S.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Long Range U. S. Winter Outlook - COLDER THAN NORMAL GREAT LAKES - NEW ENGLAND AND GULF COAST. A colder than normal winter, especially during the first half appears likely for the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and New England region, while below normal Temps are also likely across the entire Gulf coast region. However, while Temps will likely average below normal, it’s very unlikely that this winter will be even remotely close to last years’ frigid winter.
In contrast to the east, the western half of the nation should see another unusually mild winter – but should be significantly stormier than last year – with above normal Precip expected from northern California to Washington State as the mean storm track shifts further south compared to last year - especially by January. Near normal Precip appears likely for southern California, allowing for at least some recovery from the extreme drought of the last several years.
The colder pattern that is now developing across the US is partially the result of an enormous and very powerful West Pacific cyclone developing from the remnant of Typhoon Nuri (with the GFS forecasting a central pressure of 918mb by SAT morning). This super storm is building a strong ridge ahead of it – with an even stronger downstream TROF expected to form over North America next week. These type of strong tropical storm forcing mechanisms on the overall hemispheric wind pattern generally last 10-15 days – but rarely, for longer periods - IF there is a lack of pattern forcing from the Eastern Pacific.
Another, albeit small, input to the Long Range Outlook is a fairly well studied phenomena related to the early development of a large AND unusually deep snow cover in Siberia during October. Absent a strong Pacific ENSO event influence, a deep Siberian snow cover in the Fall often leads to a cold North American winter as the large, low level source of cold air over Siberia ‘sets up’ a jet stream pattern that favors deep, arctic air mass intrusions into much of North America. Unfortunately, real-time snow depth reports from the Euro-Asian region (and especially Siberia!) is simply not available. Snow extent (derived from Satellite imagery) is, however, available on a daily basis, and current snow extent (and arctic basin ice coverage) is slightly greater than at the same time last year, and significantly more widespread than in OCT 2012.
Wunderground.com is forecasting a colder winter than that given in the official NOAA outlook, but not nearly as cold as most every other private forecast services are calling for. [MUCH more info at link]

SPACE WEATHER -

SOLAR STORM CLOUDS MISS EARTH - Sunspot AR2205 is crackling with M-class solar flares. The blasts have hurled multiple CMEs into space, but so far none poses a threat to Earth. Because AR2205 is not yet directly facing Earth, the CMEs are sailing wide of our planet. sMore eruptions are in the offing. AR2205 has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong flares and CMEs. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of M-flares and a 25% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS

It's Over: Texas Ebola Outbreak About to End - As of midnight Friday, it will have been 21 days since anyone got Ebola or was in contact with someone who got Ebola.
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Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster updates.

**Many men go fishing all their lives without knowing that it is not fish that they are after.**
Henry David Thoreau

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.2 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA

Yesterday, 11/3/14 -
5.0 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
6.2 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
5.1 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.5 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.3 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

11/2/14 -
5.3 ZAMBIA
6.0 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION
5.4 ICELAND

11/1/14 -
5.4 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.3 OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z.
7.1 FIJI REGION
6.0 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.6 EASTER ISLAND REGION

A magnitude-6.9 earthquake shook the Pacific Ocean near Fiji shortly before 8 a.m. local time Sunday, but no tsunami was expected. The quake — centered about 88 miles northeast of the island of Ndoi — was about 260 miles deep. Fiji is an archipelago about 3,100 miles southwest of Hawaii.

TROPICAL STORMS -

* In the Eastern Pacific -
- Tropical storm Vance is weakening; located about 240 mi (385 km) SW of Mazatlan, Mexico. The center of Vance is expected to move near or over the western coast of Mexico on Wednesday.

* In the Western Pacific -
Typhoon Nuri is located approximately 245 nm west of Iwo To, Japan.
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Typhoon Nuri Poised to become an Alaskan Super Storm; Vance Drenching Mexico. Typhoon Nuri lost its "Super" designation Monday night, after the top winds fell below 150 mph, but remains poised to transition this weekend to ONE OF THE STRONGEST EXTRATROPICAL STORMS EVER TO AFFECT ALASKA.
Nuri intensified from a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds to a very high-end Category 5 with 180 mph winds on Sunday, tying Super Typhoon Vongfong for strongest tropical cyclone of 2014. Satellite loops show that Nuri remains a formidable storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops and a prominent eye. Fortunately, Nuri is not expected to directly threaten any land areas, with the storm passing far enough from Japan on Thursday to keep the heavy rain area out to sea.
However, once Nuri loses its tropical characteristics and moves into the Bering Sea to the west of Alaska on Friday, a very powerful jet stream will interact with ex-Nuri and cause it to rapidly intensify into ONE OF THE STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EVER OBSERVED IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. Ex-Nuri will bring substantial impacts to the Aleutian Islands and coastal areas of southwest Alaska over the weekend, with the threat of damaging winds near hurricane force and a significant storm surge.

Hurricane Vance in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico is steadily weakening as high wind shear of 35 - 40 knots tears into the storm. Satellite images show that Vance is barely recognizable as a hurricane, with an elongated disorganized appearance. Wind shear is expected to rise even higher before Vance reaches the Mexican coast late Wednesday morning, and this may be sufficient to tear Vance apart before landfall. Regardless of whether or not Vance makes it to the coast as a tropical storm, flooding rains will be the primary threat; heavy rains of 4 - 8" will affect the Mexican coast northwest of Puerto Vallarta on Tuesday and Wednesday.

SPACE WEATHER -

Fireball spotted in skies from Chicago to Japan - There were nearly 400 reports of a fireball in more than a dozen states, including Alabama, Virginia, Tennessee and Illinois. Meanwhile in western Japan, there were multiple sightings of "a sparkling light racing across the sky. It's not clear if the sightings across the U.S. and Japan were of the same object, though it's not likely. The operations manager for the American Meteor Society said that while the object on the East Coast "was definitely a fireball," the one in Chicago's sky "was most likely manmade" — possibly "a flare from a boat on Lake Michigan."[video at link]

Arriving only a little late for Halloween, a flare-y sunspot is emerging over the sun's northeastern limb. In 24 hours AR2205 has unleashed at least four M-class flares including an M6-flare recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory on Nov. 3rd.
The explosions have hurled multiple CMEs into space. Not one of the clouds is heading our way. Earth is outside the line of fire. This could change in the days ahead, however, as the sun's rotation turns the active region toward our planet.
NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of M-flares during the next 24 hours. Those odds seem low considering the ongoing activity. In fact, another M-flare is almost certain and an X-flare could be in the offing, too.
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