Wednesday, May 22, 2013

The rescue effort after the Oklahoma twister that killed 24 people nears an end, as it emerges the storm was more powerful than first thought. Rescue workers are combing the ruins left by the gigantic tornado that killed two dozen people in Oklahoma on Monday. Officials say the search for survivors is nearly over as efforts turn towards recovery. The Fire chief said he was "98% sure" there were no more survivors or bodies to recover from the rubble.
According to the fire chief, no survivors or bodies have been found since Monday night. He said the goal was to conduct three searches of each location just to be sure. Emergency crews have had trouble navigating the devastated neighbourhoods because there were no street signs remaining. Some used mobile phones and GPS to navigate. Heavy-lifting equipment was deployed under bright floodlights as the operation continued overnight and throughout Tuesday. Rescuers braved the danger of electrocution and fire from downed power lines, as well as ruptured natural gas lines.
The storm, which also killed nine children, has meanwhile been upgraded to to EF-5, the most powerful level of twister. Packing winds of at least 200mph (320km/h), the tornado razed a swathe of the Oklahoma City suburb of Moore. The death toll may rise above 24 as some bodies could have been taken directly to funeral homes. The body count was revised down from 51 after the state medical examiner said some victims may have been counted twice in the confusion.
The National Weather Service uses the word "incredible'' to describe the force of such a storm. The NWS said the twister's path was 17 miles long and 1.3 miles wide. For about 45 minutes on Monday afternoon, the storm battered the suburb of about 55,000 people. Emergency workers pulled more than 100 survivors from the rubble of homes, schools and a hospital, while 237 people were known to have been injured.
Seven of the nine children killed in the tornado died at Plaza Towers Elementary, where the storm ripped off the roof and knocked down walls as students and teachers cowered in hallways and bathrooms. Officials said they were still trying to account for a handful of children not found at the schools who may have gone home early with their parents. That primary school and one other hit by the storm, Briarwood Elementary, did not have safe-rooms that protect against tornadoes. More than 100 schools in Oklahoma had been provided with state-funded safe rooms, but not those two.
Residents were given 16 minutes' warning before the tornado touched down - officials said such advisories were usually issued eight to 10 minutes ahead of a twister. Oklahoma's insurance commissioner said the cost of the storm would exceed that of the 2011 tornado in Joplin, Missouri, that killed 158 people. The Joplin twister caused $3bn (£2bn) in damage.
The storm left a tangle of ruined buildings, piles of broken wood, overturned and crushed cars. Many houses in the area are built on hard ground without basements, so many residents had struggled to find shelter. Oklahoma City lies inside the so-called Tornado Alley stretching from South Dakota to central Texas, an area particularly vulnerable to storms. The city of Moore was hit by a severe tornado in May 1999, which had the highest winds ever recorded on Earth, over 310mph.
Photos

**I discovered I scream the same way whether I’m
about to be devoured by a great white shark
or if a piece of seaweed touches my foot.**
Axel Rose


LARGEST QUAKES -

Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
5/21/13 -
5.8 CENTRAL PERU
5.2 SOUTHERN PERU
5.3 OFF COAST OF AISEN, CHILE
5.0 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.3 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.3 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
6.1 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.6 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.4 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.8 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.8 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
6.0 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.2 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.5 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISL., JAPAN
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

5/20/13 -
5.0 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.6 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.3 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.6 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.3 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
6.4 OFF COAST OF AISEN, CHILE

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

The Popocatepetl volcano near Mexico City is still rumbling. - Mexico's National Disaster Prevention Center says seismic activity shook the area early Sunday and the mountain also emitted gas, ash and glowing-hot rocks. 'Popo' has been especially active in the past three weeks which prompted the authorities to raise the alarm level to 'yellow,' a step before a 'red' alert, under which residents living nearby would have to be evacuated.

Eruption of Alaska volcano prompts cancellations of some area commuter, cargo flights - The eruption that started last week at Pavlof, at the far western end of the Alaska Peninsula, is still going strong. The volcano eruption is prompting regional airlines to cancel flights to nearby communities, including a town that reported traces of fallen ash. Pavlof released ash plumes as high as 22,000 feet over the weekend. The lava flows and fountains are continuing, with steam-and-ash plumes reported to be reaching 5-6 km (20,000+ feet).

TROPICAL STORMS -

No current tropical storms.

The killer cyclone that struck Bangladesh six days ago damaged the homes of tens of thousands of people and destroyed their crops, aid groups said, warning that many coastal communities were still in need. Cyclone Mahasen slammed into Bangladesh's low-lying southern coast late Thursday, also striking parts of Myanmar. Downgraded to a tropical storm as winds weakened and eventually fizzled over India, the storm still killed a reported 45 people.

Weird Gravity Waves Pulse From a Tropical Cyclone - Last Monday, May 13, the Suomi NPP satellite captured a fascinating image of Tropical Cyclone Mahasen as it moved northeast over the Bay of Bengal. The clouds of the storm itself weren’t optically visible in the darkness of a nearly new Moon, but lightning flashes within it were, as well as the eerie ripples of atmospheric gravity waves spreading outwards from its center.
Gravity waves are the oscillations of air parcels by the lifting force of bouyancy and the restoring force of gravity. These waves propagate vertically as well as horizontally, and actively transport energy and momentum from the troposphere to the middle and upper atmosphere. Gravity waves are caused by a variety of sources, including the passage of wind across terrestrial landforms, interaction at the velocity shear of the polar jet stream and radiation incident from space. They are found to affect atmospheric tides in the middle atmosphere and terrestrial weather in the lower atmosphere.
Atmospheric gravity waves aren’t to be confused with gravitational waves in space, which are created by very dense, massive objects (like white dwarf stars or black holes) orbiting each other closely. When the image was captured, Tropical Cyclone Mahasen was moving north through the Indian Ocean along a track that placed landfall along the Bangladesh coast. As it moved off the coast of India, Suomi’s VIIRS Day-Night Band was able to resolve lightning flashes towards the center of the storm, along with mesopheric gravity waves emanating outwards like ripples in a pond. Such gravity waves are of particular interest to air traffic controllers so assist in identifying areas of turbulence.
Over the course of the next few days Mahasen weakened into a deep depression, making landfall as a tropical storm on Bangladesh on May 16. In preparation for the storm large-scale evacuations were recommended for parts of Myanmar; however, this resulted in the overcrowding of boats and several vessels capsized. Suomi is the first satellite specifically designed to collect data to improve short-term weather forecasts and increase understanding of long-term climate change.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Tornado Alley: Patterns without predictability - The enormous tornado that struck in Moore, Oklahoma, on Monday has added a chilling entry into the list of the deadliest tornadoes on record. The event has many recalling a record-breaking tornado that struck in precisely the same region in 1999, during which the fastest winds ever seen on the Earth's surface were recorded: over 500km/h (310mph).
Tornadoes remain the most viscerally terrifying example of extreme weather, combining an extraordinary capacity for damage with a stubborn unpredictability. Broadly, they arise in the same conditions that spawn the biggest thunderstorms. The geography and climatology in the U.S. interior provide for just this situation with great regularity; three-quarters of the tornadoes that happen on Earth happen in North America. A disproportionate number of those occur in a region in the nation's centre, widely known as "Tornado Alley".
It is a loosely defined area; the state of Texas gets on average the highest annual number of tornadoes, but Kansas, further north, gets the highest number of the more violent storms. In simplest terms, warm, wet air blowing in from the Gulf of Mexico meets cold, dry air coming from the massive Rocky Mountain range, hemmed in by air masses on the eastern part of the country. That frequently creates the conditions for grand thunderstorms.
What is evident only in the light of years' worth of data is that there are some patterns in tornado occurrence. Monday's tornado came during the annual peak of tornado activity in the region; according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration , tornado occurrences in the last 30 years strongly peak in the months of May and June. Curiously, they also peak in time of day, tending to occur more often in late afternoon hours (Monday's event occurred at a time on the rising edge of this peak, at about 15:00 local time).
There are more tornadoes in total being recorded in recent years, mainly due to better reporting and fewer truly unpopulated areas where they would go unseen. Yet there is no indication that the frequency of large tornadoes is increasing. While 2011 saw the largest number of storms above EF1 among records dating back to 1954, 2012 was among the lowest. And the average number of fatalities caused by tornadoes has been steadily declining since 1925 - before Monday's storm, only one of the 25 deadliest tornadoes occurred in the last 58 years, and most of that list stretches back further than a century.
Much of this can be attributed to better building codes and increasingly advanced warning systems in affected areas - the National Weather Service in Oklahoma issued a warning 16 minutes before the storm hit. But such warning systems can only give a rough indication of an area in which conditions are almost certain to spark tornadoes; what they cannot provide is a precise prediction of where a tornado will touch down.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

U.K. Apples and pears shaping up to enjoy strong harvest - Last year's poor summer hit UK fruit growers, especially orchard owners, very hard, but UK fruit growers could enjoy a much improved harvest of apples and pears this year. The recent cold weather, a key part of a successful fruit harvest, could see fruit-filled branches in the autumn.
Poor weather conditions during 2012 saw British fruit yields down by up to 50%. However, the prolonged cold weather this year has not helped cereal growers, who face another tough year. An assessment suggested that the growing season was about EIGHT WEEKS LATE, but the recent warming has seen it reduce this deficit to about three to four weeks. "We are hopeful of a good harvest this year as long as this reasonable weather keeps up during flowering." The return of cold weather in some parts of the country, which have experienced ground frost, is not likely to jeopardise this.
But there would be concern if there was air frost (when the air temperature 1.25m above the ground fell to 0C (32F) or below). "We don't want an air frost, and we certainly do not want it falling beneath -2C. Kent, Worcestershire and Herefordshire are probably through this period now, so the crop should be set." "I would have thought they have got away with it because I do not remember hearing of any serious air frost in the past 14 days."
Apple trees are generally in blossom for about 14 days, during which time the flowers are pollinated - primarily by wild bees and hoverflies. Most varieties will not produce any apples unless they are pollinated, and pollinated with pollen from a different variety of apple tree so it is important that the trees are in flower at the same time.
A bumper harvest depended on a number of natural milestones being achieved over the course of 12 months. "We are looking for a good autumn that initiates plenty of flowers, so we want a sunny, dry autumn, and then we want a nice cold period during the winter. We have had plenty of cold this season. Then we want a good fortnight [during the spring] with no air frost when the blossom is out, it's pretty simple really."
Conditions last year were "absolutely diabolical" while apple trees were in flower. "And during the summer we would like some proper growing weather. Proper growing weather during May is some showers and warm nights, ideally double figure nights above 10C, and no drought during June, July and August."

STRANGE ANIMAL BEHAVIOR -

Anteater Gives Birth Without Mating, Zoo Officials Puzzled - A female anteater that gave birth despite the absence of a male partner at a zoo in Connecticut has zoo officials puzzled, offering a bizarre situation where likely explanations to the mystery are in short supply.
At Greenwich's LEO Zoological Conservation Center, a female giant anteater called Armani gave birth as planned last August. Because male anteaters are known to eat their young, Armani's mate, Alf, was removed from cohabitation for a period of several months. The story gets weird when last month, a zookeeper went into to Armani's holding area one morning and found that she had given birth to another baby. "The gestation period for anteaters is six months. Armani and Alf had not been back together long enough to do what they needed to do to put the cycle of life into gear a second time."
So how did it happen? "It is a bit of a mystery." But a possibility was suggested: delayed implantation. Sloths and armadillos, which belong to the same family as anteaters, have been observed with fertilized eggs remaining dormant in the uterus for some time, so it's possible Armani had the same thing happening. But not everybody believes that theory.
"When she gives birth, her entire uterus is going to clear out. Anything that's in her uterus, even another undeveloped embryo, would clear out," said a zookeeper and species survival plan coordinator for the North American population of giant anteaters at Reid Park Zoo in Tuscon, Ariona. In her opinion, the most likely scenario was that the two anteaters were able to mate, somehow.
"My guess is they thought they had him separated. We've seen incredible feats of breeding success. We've had animals breed through fences." The separated anteaters did share a fence line, but keepers didn't see how mating could have taken place between it. With nothing but speculation to go on, the mystery will likely never be solved.

HEALTH THREATS -

Coronavirus cases, deaths reported in Tunisia, Saudi Arabia - The Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has reached Tunisia, killing one man and infecting two of his relatives, while Saudi Arabia has reported another death and a new case since May 17.
WHO expert concerned guest workers could spread coronavirus - A World Health Organization (WHO) expert has expressed concern that guest workers in the Middle East could carry the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) to India and the Philippines.

RECALLS & ALERTS
- Galveston Shrimp Company has issued a precautionary voluntary recall of its pre-packaged Texas Gulf Shrimp due to foreign material found in a bag. The pre-packaged bags are shipped to HEB Stores. Customers who recently purchased pre-packaged Gulf Shrimp are encouraged to check their refrigerators and/or freezers.
- Eco-Cuisine of Boulder, Colorado is recalling lots of Brownie, Muffin & Cookie Mixes, Ground Beef Style Quick Mix, Sausage Style Quick Mix, English Scone Mix, and Basic Scone Mix, because it has the potential to be contaminated with Salmonella.

Monday, May 20, 2013

Deadly tornadoes ravage Oklahoma - A dangerous, half mile-wide tornado struck near Oklahoma City Sunday afternoon, part of an extreme weather system moving through the central U.S. and stretching from north Texas to Minnesota. At least one person is reported dead and 21 others injured in a series of tornadoes that have torn through the US state of Oklahoma. One of the tornadoes turned homes in a trailer park near Oklahoma City into splinters and rubble and sent frightened residents along a 100-mile corridor scurrying for cover. Twisters also hit Kansas and Iowa. Baseball-sized hail, wind gusts and tornadoes are threatening to pummel parts of the central Plains and Midwest again today.

No update on Tuesday this week

**Life’s disappointments are harder to take
if you don’t know any swear words.**


LARGEST QUAKES -

Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
6.8 OFF COAST OF AISEN, CHILE
5.6 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.3 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA

Yesterday -
5/19/13 -
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.1 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.8 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.1 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
6.0 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.2 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.1 NORTHERN ALGERIA
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

Five hurt as 5.1 quake hits Algeria - The injured included two workers who fell from scaffolding when the quake hit, while another panicked and jumped from a window. Previously, on May 3, a quake damaged several buildings around Mostaganem city in western Algeria, causing no casualties. On May 21, 2003, nearly 3,000 people died and 10,000 were injured when an earthquake struck the coastal town of Boumerdes.

In Chenab valley in Jammu and Kashmir, people are scared to enter their houses due to frequent earthquakes. Since the May 1 earthquake that measured 5.9 on the richer scale, 30 aftershocks have hit this hilly region. The earthquake rendered buildings unsafe; 50,000 houses, schools damaged.

Since the powerful , Virginia-centered 2011 quake, more than 450 aftershocks have hit the area. The latest occurred Wednesday when a magnitude-2.3 quake struck about 6 miles south-southwest of Louisa. The survey says the area is within the central Virginia seismic zone, which has been identified for decades as an area of elevated earthquake risk.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Alaska's remote Pavlof Volcano was shooting lava hundreds of feet into the air, but its ash plume was thinning on Saturday and no longer making it dangerous for airplanes to fly nearby. The eruption that began Monday seemed to be slowing, but that could change at any time. "Things could ramp up quickly. " There are no flight restrictions because of the eruption, but pilots are being told to use caution. On Friday, a pilot flew by Pavlof, shooting video and photos of the eruption, including glimpes of the lava. (several videos)

Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico) - New crater formed on top of lava dome.
Villagers locked out of shelter - For the villagers closest to Popocatepetl, the Mexican volcano showing alarming signs of a imminent eruption, contingency plans are somewhat lacking. The village president has no telephone line, there is no doctor and the man with the key to the emergency refuge, a disgraced former mayor, has fled town. El Popo burst into life a fortnight ago, spewing clouds of ash and chunks of rock over nearby towns during eruptions that have grown in intensity.
It is potentially one of the world’s most destructive volcanoes because of its proximity to Mexico City, just 40 miles away, and the Mexican authorities have been preparing evacuation routes and shelters. But the residents of Santiago Xalitzintla, a poor farming village seven miles from the crater, remain locked out of their shelter. “We will use a human key. A child small enough to squeeze through the bars of the window but strong enough to jump down into the room and open the door from the inside.” Even if the brave youngster succeeds, the 2,000 residents face further problems. For one thing, the stone-walled shack has room for only 400 people. For another, its tin roof is unlikely to withstand cascading chunks of molten rock.
An American volcanologist who observed eruptions in 1994 and 2000, said: “When I started, the crater was very deep and the explosions weren’t powerful enough to send heavy material outside. The kind of explosions we’re seeing now are very capable of shooting that stuff out. It could cause rocks to rain down for miles around or, in a worst-case scenario, huge destructive mudflows.” Popocatepetl’s last massive eruption was 1,100 years ago when it wiped out the city of Puebla, 24 miles away.
“It’s a long time since it’s been this intense; a serious eruption is a possibility. There would be definite warning signs like earthquakes if it was going to get extremely bad, but the damage could block highways, close bridges, shut down hospitals, making escape very difficult.” In Santiago Xalitzintla there are few signs of fear. "We’ve got used to the roar of the volcano. There’s nothing you can do.” If ordered to leave, they will stay put rather than be forced out by soldiers, the villagers said. “They want to get their hands on our land and our animals. We’re more afraid of the army than El Popo.”

Feds concerned about risky activity at Kilauea - U.S. Geological Survey officials are concerned over what they say is risky behavior by visitors to Kilauea Volcano at Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. The problem is that people continue to get too close to Kilauea's current ocean entry, approaching both by land and sea.
Areas of ocean entry are dangerous places. Lava entering the sea builds a platform of new land known as a lava delta, which appears stable but is not. Lava deltas can collapse without warning. Kayakers visiting the volcano on the Big Island recently paddled just feet from lava streaming into the ocean. They then went ashore and walked across new land built by the ocean entry and scooped molten lava with their paddle.

TROPICAL STORMS -

No current tropical storms.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

El Nino unlikely to disrupt Northern Hemisphere summer - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on Thursday the latest data confirmed its forecast that El Nino was unlikely to cause extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere throughout the summer and into winter.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Alberta leads Canada in extreme weather loss claims - The insurance bureau said severe weather events that used to happen once every 40 years are now happening once every six years, with more homes and vehicles being damaged. Alberta usually has more such events than other parts of the country.

Beating wild weather in Sri Lanka - Planners in Sri Lanka should do more to mitigate the effects of extreme weather in order to help those most likely to be affected, experts say. According to Sri Lanka's Disaster Management Centre (DMC), in 2012, 1.2 million people were affected by drought and over half a million by floods, while in early 2011, floods affected over a million and displaced more than 200,000 - a trend expected to increase in the future.

Climate slowdown means extreme rates of warming 'not as likely' - Scientists say the recent downturn in the rate of global warming will lead to lower temperature rises in the short-term. Some of the most extreme predictions of global warming are unlikely to materialise, new scientific research has suggested, but the world is still likely to be in for a temperature rise of double that regarded as safe.
Since 1998, there has been an unexplained "standstill" in the heating of the Earth's atmosphere. Researchers say this will reduce predicted warming in the coming decades. But long-term, the expected temperature rises will not alter significantly. The slowdown in the expected rate of global warming has been studied for several years now. Earlier this year, the UK Met Office lowered their five-year temperature forecast.
"The hottest of the models in the medium-term, they are actually looking less likely or inconsistent with the data from the last decade alone. The most extreme projections are looking less likely than before." The authors calculate that over the coming decades global average temperatures will warm about 20% more slowly than expected. But when it comes to the longer term picture, the authors say their work is consistent with previous estimates. The IPCC said that climate sensitivity was in the range of 2.0-4.5C.
Not everyone agrees with this perspective. The conclusion about the oceans needs to be taken with a grain of salt for now. "There is other research out there pointing out that this storage may be part of a natural cycle that will eventually reverse, either due to El Nino or the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and therefore may not imply what the authors are suggesting." The authors say there are ongoing uncertainties surrounding the role of aerosols in the atmosphere and around the issue of clouds. "We would expect a single decade to jump around a bit but the overall trend is independent of it, and people should be exactly as concerned as before about what climate change is doing."


SPACE WEATHER -

A massive explosion from a meteor which crashed into the Moon was visible to the naked eye on Earth, THE BIGGEST EXPLOSION SCIENTISTS HAVE SEEN HIT THE MOON SINCE THEY STARTED MONITORING IT. A boulder-sized meteor slammed into the moon in March, causing an explosion so bright anyone looking up at the right moment would have spotted it. About 300 lunar impacts have been logged over the years but this latest impact, from March 17, is considered much, much brighter than anything else observed. It is understood the space rock left a 20m-wide crater after it slammed into the Moon’s surface at 56,000 mph (90,000 kph).
“We have seen a couple of others in the ‘wow’ category but not this bright.” The blast lasted only about a single second and shone like a 4th magnitude star — making it bright enough to see with just the unaided eye. The crash created a new crater 65 feet wide (20 meters). The crash sparked a bright flash of light that would have been visible to anyone looking at the moon at the time with the naked eye. "It exploded in a flash nearly 10 times as bright as anything we've ever seen before."
Scientists deduced the rock had been roughly 1-foot-wide (between 0.3 to 0.4 meters) and weighted about 88 lbs (40 kg).The explosion it created was as powerful as 5 tons of TNT. When researchers looked back at their records from March, they found that the moon meteor might not have been an isolated event. "On the night of March 17, NASA and University of Western Ontario all-sky cameras picked up an UNUSUAL NUMBER of deep-penetrating meteors right here on Earth. These fireballs were traveling along nearly identical orbits between Earth and the asteroid belt."
Though Earth's atmosphere protected our planet's surface from being hit by these meteors, the moon has no such luck. Its lack of an atmosphere exposes it to all incoming space rocks. Part of the motivation for the program is NASA's eventual intent to send astronauts back to the moon. When they arrive, they'll need to know how often meteors impact the surface, and whether certain parts of the year, coinciding with the moon's passage through crowded bits of the solar system, pose special dangers.
"We'll be keeping an eye out for signs of a repeat performance next year when the Earth-Moon system passes through the same region of space. Meanwhile, our analysis of the March 17th event continues." The scientists also hope to use NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter to photograph the impact site to learn more about how the crash occurred.

Sunday, May 19, 2013

As Earth's magnetic field reverberates from one CME strike which hit on the 18th and sparked a G1-class geomagnetic storm, a second more potent CME is on the way. It was propelled in our direction by sunspot AR1748, which unleashed an M3-class solar flare on May 17th (0858 UT). Although this is not the strongest flare we've seen from AR1748, it could be the most geoeffective; the sunspot was almost-squarely facing Earth when the blast occurred. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives.

**How is it one careless match can start a forest fire,
but it takes a whole box to start a campfire?**


LARGEST QUAKES -

Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA

Yesterday -
5/18/13 -
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.1 NEAR S. COAST OF WESTERN HONSHU
5.5 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.6 SOUTHERN IRAN
6.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.7 SOUTH OF AFRICA

5/17/13 -
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.3 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 ONTARIO, CANADA 5.7 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

Canadian quake felt across parts of upstate New York - A 5.1-magnitude earthquake in Ontario, Canada has been felt across upstate New York from Buffalo to the Vermont border. Windows rattled, walls swayed and knick-knacks toppled from store shelves near the national capital Friday as Canadians across a wide swath of Ontario and Quebec felt the disconcerting tremors. The quake was felt in downtown Ottawa, where office workers scrambled under desks and ran for emergency exits.
Canada's government agency that monitors earthquakes says the quake occurred at 9:43 a.m. Friday. It was followed 10 minutes later by an aftershock measured at magnitude-4.1 by the Canadian agency and 3.6 by the U.S. bureau. “We don't expect to see major damage from an earthquake until it gets to around a 5.5”, said a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey.

As earthquakes become more intense and more frequent in the north of the Netherlands, there is mounting pressure on the government to reduce the amount of gas being extracted there. It is a curse for thousands of inhabitants of an area blessed with vast mineral wealth. Homes are crumbling as the country profits from the Groningen gas fields, the largest in Europe.
There exists a consensus among all parties - including the gas companies - that the process of extracting the gas is causing earthquakes, but the country is thriving on the proceeds. In 2012 the Dutch government made about 14bn euros (£12bn; $18bn) from the Groningen gas fields. Without these revenues, the Netherlands' deficit would be similar to that of crisis-struck Cyprus (6.3%).
"It comes rumbling towards you, louder and louder and louder. Everything starts to shake. It ends with a bang, like a massive weight dropped on the house. Boof! And that is frightening, really really frightening." The newly built neighbourhood of Middelstum is Dutch-style suburbia: a canal running down the left side of the street. But is one of the worst-hit areas. What percentage of these homes here has been affected? "At least 60% but the old ones are worse."
Approximately 60,000 homes lie within the earthquake zone. The gas companies are dealing with about 6,000 damage claims. "We want them to put our safety on top of everything, but they don't, they really don't. The government is meant to protect its citizens. We don't feel protected."
At one house a jagged split about 7cm (2.7in) wide runs through a concrete step and up the side of the house, as though lightning has struck and left an ugly, indelible mark. The floor of the utility room is clearly subsiding. It is an extraordinary concern in a region that lies almost entirely below sea level. This is not a land that can afford to sink any further.
Nor can it afford to give up its gas habit. "Almost all the people heat their houses with Groningen gas and they cook their meals with Groningen gas. It's also important because of the budget of our government." The Dutch government owns large stakes in the gas fields. While there is sympathy, few are prepared to sacrifice the relative economic prosperity generated by the Groningen gas. As one car park attendant puts it, "If the Groningers don't like it, they should just move elsewhere."
There is another reason the economics ministry has rejected some scientific recommendations to cut the scale of explorations immediately: contracts. "We have long-term contracts with other countries." Groningen gas was discovered in the 1960s. Since then, the Dutch government has reaped an estimated 250bn euros from the sale of this natural resource.
Last August there was a magnitude 3.4 tremor. Higher than any expert had previously predicted, it further sapped the residents' confidence and forced the ministers to commission an inquiry. "Until now we always knew that earthquakes could occur, now we don't know what the new maximum could be." Could lives be in danger? "You can never exclude anything. If people are in the wrong place at the wrong time…"
And that is the fear of those whose ancestors lived on the land long before the gas firms started shaking it. The Groningen Ground Movement is currently considering taking its case to the European Court of Human Rights, on the grounds their basic right to live without fear is being violated. "We sleep underneath a beam. At night I think, what if there was another earthquake and that beam was to come down on top of us? I hope I will live to tell about it." (quake map)

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Alaska volcano 'fountaining' with fire, spreading expansive ash cloud - Alaskans and air travelers remained on alert Thursday due to the rumblings of Pavlof volcano emitting a "continuous ash, steam and gas cloud" that already extends up to 60 miles away. The volcano awoke Monday morning, kicking off a "low-level eruption of lava." By late Tuesday night, an ash plume reached 15,000 feet above sea level.
Pavlof, one of Alaska's most restless volcanoes, shot an ash cloud 15,000 feet into the air Friday in an ongoing eruption that is visible for miles when the weather allows. Pavlof is the second Alaska volcano to erupt this month. Both volcanos are active, in fact, they are at the highest alert level for sudden explosions with little warning.

TROPICAL STORMS -

No current tropical storms.

Cyclone Mahasen has spared Bangladesh from the worst extent of deaths and damage although it left 48 killed in its wake. This time there was early warning and most of the deaths occurred as victims ignored do's and don'ts issued by local authorities. More than 49,000 thatched houses were destroyed.

Indonesia - Monsoon set to break over Andamans under 'Mahasen' effect. The onset of the rains is expected to be normal this year, with raging cyclone Mahasen having played a big role facilitating it. The cyclone has churned up the seas and is trailed by strong band of southwesterly flows from South of the Equator.

Kathmandu - Cyclone Mahasen brings rain in Himalayas. It seems the Mahasen Cyclone in the Bay of Bengal has had a slight affect in the weather pattern of the Kathmandu Valley as the temperature has remained below normal for the past few days.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Video - Deadly China floods kill 55.

Friday, May 17, 2013

US Spent More on 2012's Extreme Weather Cleanup than on Schools or Roads - U.S. taxpayers paid nearly $100 billion responding to damages caused by last year's extreme weather events associated with climate change, about $1,100 per taxpayer, according to an analysis by the Natural Resources Defense Council. That means that federal spending to deal with extreme weather far exceeded total spending aimed at solving the problem. In fact, it was eight times the EPA's total budget and eight times the total spending on energy.
Extreme Weather Drove More Than 30 Million People from Their Homes in 2012 - Millions of people were displaced from their homes due to flooding.
Ohio had at least 75 RECORD-BREAKING EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS in 2012. Nationally, 3,527 monthly weather records for heat, rain and snow were broken by extreme weather events, according to an updated review.
160 RECORD-BREAKING EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS in 2012 in Michigan.

**Do your little bit of good where you are:
it's the little bits of good together that overwhelm the world.**
Desmond Tutu


LARGEST QUAKES -

Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
5/16/13 -
5.0 WEST CHILE RISE
5.3 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 CARIBBEAN SEA
5.7 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 WESTERN XIZANG
5.1 WESTERN XIZANG
5.0 SOUTH OF AFRICA

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Remote Alaska volcano continues to erupt with lava fountains, ash plumes. Onsite seismic instruments are picking up constant tremors from the eruption at Pavlof, located about 625 miles southwest of Anchorage. Residents of Cold Bay, 37 miles away, have reported seeing a glow from the summit. Steam and ash clouds are occasionally rising to 20,000 feet.

TROPICAL STORMS -

In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical Cyclone Mahasen was located approximately 53 nm southeastward of Dhaka, Bangladesh. The final advisory has been issued on this system.

In the Eastern Pacific -
Tropical storm Alvin was located about about 770 mi [1240 km] SW of Manzanillo, Mexico. Alvin is in a hostile environment. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Alvin could degenerate into a trough of low pressure at any time.

Mahasen - Bangladesh rides out the weakened storm. Cyclone Mahasen weakened Thursday afternoon into a tropical storm and then dissipated, causing far less damage than had been feared as it passed over Bangladesh and spared Burma almost entirely. Category 1 Mahasen struck the southern coast of Bangladesh on Thursday, lashing remote fishing villages with heavy rain and fierce winds that flattened mud and straw huts, killing 12 people. Cyclone-induced rains have had much of the Bangladesh capital city knee-deep in water since Thursday morning.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Three weeks of extreme weather compels emergency relief from Maldives' government - Maldivian government authorities are providing emergency services and relief funds to island communities battered by three weeks of “extreme weather”. The National Disaster Management Centre issued a statement May 15 urging island and atoll councils to report any damage caused by the “harsh weather” as soon as possible.
Flooding due to three weeks of severe weather and heavy rain has damaged households, sewerage systems, as well as caused extensive agricultural destruction. Food shortages on some islands have resulted from agricultural damage and the disruption of transportation and supply networks due to bad weather. “All islands import food from Male’, however the seas have been so rough [supply] boats are still in Male’ and unable to reach the islands... they will try to send [food supplies] somehow.” Normally, supply boats travel between the atolls at least twice a week. “For the time being there is no emergency. If an island completely runs out of food, the MNDF is always on board [collaborating] with STO and NDMC, and will send vessels.”
The President met with officials from the Maldives Police Service, the Maldives National Defence Force, the NDMC, and other high-ranking government officials to discuss damages sustained and relief counter measures being taken nationwide. Meanwhile, the MNDF and police have issued precautionary warnings to the public due to the severe weather conditions. The Coast Guard issued a request that “all travelers to take necessary precautionary measures before setting on their journeys due to the severe weather with heavy rain and thunderstorms… particularly in the northern and southern regions of the Maldives.” They recommended travelers test communications sets and obtain updated weather forecasts before embarking on any journeys.
The Coast Guard further stated that average wind speeds of 15-25 miles per hour (mph) in the southern atolls and 7-17 mph are expected in the northern atolls, while wind gusts during thunderstorms will reach 40-50 mph. Additionally, the police issued an SMS bulletin today also warning the public to “take precautionary measures due to the bad weather”. A “white bulletin” was also issued by the Maldives Meteorological Service, warning that the central atolls can expect average winds speeds of 23-30 mph.
Thus far damage assessment reports have been submitted by 12 islands from seven atolls – Shaviyani, Meemu, Dhaalu, Thaa, Laamu, Fuvahmulah, and Addu City – representing regions from the far north to the far south of the Maldives. Other islands have reported storm-related damage directly to the media or have spoken with the NDMC, but have yet to official report these issues to the centre.

Big storms in China have killed at least 33 people and destroyed thousands of houses. 12 people are missing. At least nine provinces have had storms and some flooding and landslides since Tuesday. Guangdong province has been hit the hardest with 19 deaths and 11 missing people. Guangdong's weather service said some areas received more than 8 inches (21 centimeters) of rain in nine hours on Thursday. It forecasts more rain in the coming days and warns of mudslides.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Farmers in central Alabama are in the middle of planting season, and for the first time in three years they aren't dealing with drought conditions. The flip side is the wetter and colder than normal spring means the fields are sometimes too wet to work.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Extreme Weather Whiplash - 106° in Iowa on the Heels of Record May Snows. Sioux City, Iowa had their first-ever snowfall on record in the month of May on May 1 (1.4"), but hit an astonishing 106° yesterday.

Fire burns 3800 acres in California national forest - Cooler temperatures and lighter winds gave hundreds of firefighters a breather from a wildfire that has blackened hills near Interstate 5 north of Los Angeles.

Last year's drought dried-up tornadoes in southern Wisconsin - The tornado warning drought for the National Weather Service office in Sullivan is one year, 10 months and 23 days through Tuesday, the second-longest since records dating back to 1950.

Marshall Islands - The UN children's fund UNICEF has joined the Marshallese Government in providing emergency assistance to the nation's severely drought-affected areas. More than 5,000 people in the north of Marshall Islands have limited access to clean and safe water.

The Australian Environment Minister has rejected a plan to let starving cattle loose in conservation reserves and national parks in Queensland, infuriating the state government and drought-hit graziers.

Drought triggers shortage of fodder for cattle in India - The monsoon failure and the consequent crop loss have caused a severe shortage of paddy straw, the staple fodder for cattle, across the district.
Sugarcane acreage in India seen at four-year low on drought - "The drought certainly seems to be serious and will impact production for next year and India will certainly have to come back to the import market more."

U. S. Drought, cold cripple wheat crop - The government's forecast comes amid a season marked by drought and late spring freezes in the Midwest's major wheat growing areas, particularly in Kansas - the nation's biggest wheat-producing state.

SPACE WEATHER -

X-FLARE THREAT CONTINUES - Sunspot AR1748 has already unleashed four X-class solar flares, but it might not be finished. The active region continues to grow beneath a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful eruptions. NOAA puts the odds of another X-flare today at 60%.
The sunspot is not particularly large, but it is complex, with many dark cores scattered through its zone of influence. This is a sign of a complicated overlying magnetic field. Magnetic complexity is the source of AR1748's explosiveness: when tangled lines of magnetic force cross and reconnect - bang! A flare occurs.
All by itself, AR1748 has produced more X-flares than every other sunspot of the past year combined. In summary, AR1748 has given us an X1.7-class flare (0217 UT on May 13), an X2.8-class flare (1609 UT on May 13), an X3.2-class flare (0117 UT on May 14), and an X1-class flare (0152 on May 15). More could be in the offing.

HEALTH THREATS -

New reports yield clues about H7N9 detection, links to poultry - Though the steady stream of new H7N9 cases has tapered, the pace of publications on the new virus is still brisk, with new reports today on Taiwan's case, a link between markets and human cases, and risk assessment and planning for possible scenarios in Europe.

Saudi Arabia assigns more labs to coronavirus probe - Saudi Arabia has dedicated more labs to investigating novel coronavirus (nCoV) cases in the country, while the condition of an nCoV patient in France has worsened.

RECALLS & ALERTS


Thursday, May 16, 2013

Texas - Six confirmed dead and as many as 100 injured as grape-fruit sized hail and tornadoes hit. The tornado ripped through a picturesque lakeside North Texas town, resulting in multiple fatalities and destroying or damaging homes. The death toll "could climb higher." At least fourteen people are unaccounted for. It was not clear if they were missing or were away from the area for other reasons. "It's definitely a nightmare."
Three tornadoes have been reported to have struck. The twisters damaged areas 5km east of Granbury that have about 110 homes. "Some [dead] were found in houses. Some were found around houses." About 50 people were taken to a Granbury hospital, where 14 were admitted for treatment of injuries and two were transferred to a hospital in Fort Worth.
Hardest hit were two neighborhoods, Rancho Brazos Estates and DeCordova Ranch, in the southern end of the town of about 8,000 residents about 65 miles southwest of Dallas. Injuries are also reported in Cleburne, where a mile-wide tornado was reported. There was no estimate on the number of homes damaged, but the number was expected to soar into the dozens based oninspection of damage ranging from roof damage to total destruction.
Another tornado hit the small town of Millsap, about 80km west of Fort Worth. Roof damage was reported to several houses and a barn was destroyed, but no injuries were reported. Hail as large as grapefruit also pelted the area around Mineral Wells. (photos)
Video

**Nothing is more tragic than the man who did nothing
because he could only do a little.**
Edmund Burke


LARGEST QUAKES -

Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.7 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 WESTERN XIZANG
5.0 SOUTHWEST OF AFRICA
5.3 SOUTH OF AFRICA

Yesterday -
5/15/13 -
5.2 NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.8 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.3 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 WESTERN XIZANG

The Jammu and Kashmir government asked the people of quake-hit areas of Doda and Kishtwar districts not to panic due to frequent tremors and assured that no stone would be left unturned to save their lives and properties.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Alaska - Lava Flows and Ash Plume as Eruption Continues at Pavlof. The eruption that started on Monday at Pavlof in Alaska continues unabated. The Alaska Volcano Observatory is reporting a dark steam-and-ash plume reaching ~6 km (20,000 foot) and drifting to the southeast by pilots passing nearby. Satellite imagery showed the mountain was "very, very hot." The Cleveland Volcano and the Pavlof Volcano, both in the Aleutian Island range southwest of mainland Alaska., appear to be erupting simultaneously. The Alaska Volcano Observatory has issued a watch due to heightened activity, plus an orange code regarding how they might affect planes in the area.

Mexican volcano rumbles, but residents shrug it off - Mexico's Popocatepetl volcano has blown steam for days, prompting authorities to prepare for possible evacuations, but residents are used to their towering neighbor's rumblings and keep fearlessly heading to work. Hundreds of soldiers have been sent to the area in case the Popocatepetl volcano does erupt.

TROPICAL STORMS -

In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical Cyclone Mahasen was located approximately 151 nm southeastward of Kolkata, India.

In the Eastern Pacific -
Tropical storm Alvin was located about 700 mi (1125 km) S of Manzanillo, Mexico. Alvin is expected to become a hurricane by Friday.

Cyclone Mahasen strikes Bangladesh - Mahasen hit Bangladesh's southern coast, killing at least five. Hundreds of thousands of people in Bangladesh and Myanmar [Burma] were ordered Wednesday to move to safety as the cyclone barrelled towards low-lying coastal areas. A U.N. agency is warning that more than 4 million people could be in danger.
Cyclone Mahasen buffeted Bangladesh's low-lying coast on Thursday, bearing down on the ports of Chittagong and Cox's Bazar, as tens of thousands of people huddled in shelters. Winds of up to 100 kph (60 mph) lashed the coast and whipped up waves, with an expected 2.1 metres (seven foot) storm surge and heavy rain likely to cause widespread flooding.
Media reports said five people were killed, some by falling trees, and thousands of rickety huts were destroyed as the storm brought torrential rain. "We have shifted most of the people who are vulnerable." About 1 million people had been moved into hundreds of cyclone shelters. "We had to force some because they refused to leaves their homes."
Bangladesh, where storms have in the past killed many people, has more than 1,400 cyclone-proof buildings. Witnesses said low-lying coastal areas were covered in waist-deep water as the storm crossed and trees were uprooted and houses damaged. There are also fears of a storm surge. Bangladesh raised its storm warning to seven, on a scale up to 10, as Mahasen approached. All schools, colleges and some hotels have been declared cyclone shelters. These centres are crowded and people are still rushing in.
The storm earlier killed at least seven people and displaced 3,881 in Sri Lanka as it tracked across the Bay of Bengal towards Bangladesh. Meteorologists said Mahasen should weaken quickly into a tropical rain depression over land. "Mudslides will also be a concern as the heavy rain spreads farther north and east on Thursday night and Friday into easternmost India and northern Myanmar."
Distrustful Rohingya resist cyclone evacuation in Myanmar - A massive evacuation to clear low-lying camps ahead of a cyclone has run into a potentially deadly snag as many members of the displaced Rohingya minority living there have refused to leave because they don't trust Myanmar authorities. Information about the threat posed by the cyclone has been patchy at best. The government admits there are no cyclone shelters in Rakhine state, and moving Rohingyas into solid buildings risks provoking the anger of the Buddhist population.
One volunteer told me they had managed to hire six non-military trucks to try to persuade the internally displaced persons (IDPs) to leave. But even if they agree, far more trucks are needed. IDPs at the Nget Chaung camp in Pauktaw, which is very exposed to the storm, decided to organise their own evacuation. This led to the accident on Monday night in which more than 50 IDPs drowned when their boat capsized.
Most of the nearly 8,000 inhabitants of Nget Chaung have now moved themselves to another, smaller camp, but there is not enough shelter. The remaining 1,000 IDPs are seeking refuge in a mosque, though that is probably too small for them.

The first tropical storm of the eastern Pacific hurricane season has formed off the coast of Mexico. Tropical Storm Alvin formed Wednesday and is no threat to land. Alvin looks well organized on satellite images, especially for a 35 kt tropical storm.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

United Kingdom - Snow fell across parts of Britain Tuesday night while another area had a MONTH'S WORTH OF RAIN IN JUST 24 HOURS as winds of up to 65mph battered the country’s coastlines in UNUSUAL WEATHER for the month.
Up to 3 inches of snow fell in Princetown in Dartmoor, Devon, Rhayader in Powys, and Newcastle-on-Clun in Shropshire – while Pembrey, Carmarthenshire, had 3 inches of rain in the 24 hours. ‘It’s crazy. Last night I couldn’t see out of my front window for the snow. I’ve lived here all my life, and I’ve never known weather like it at this time of year.’
The southern coast was hit hardest last night with police in Devon and Cornwall reporting slates coming off roofs and trees blocking roads, as rain lashed across much of the country. In Devon and Cornwall hundreds of homes were left without electricity. Residents were also bracing themselves for floods – with 14 separate alerts in place across the two counties. The Isles of Scilly bore the brunt of the Atlantic gales but freak snow flurries were reported in Exmoor and Dartmoor, where residents said the conditions were more like mid-winter than May.

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

CHANCE OF FLARES - NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of X-class solar flares and an 80% chance of M-class solar flares today. The source would be active sunspot AR1748, which is turning toward Earth.
When the week began, the sun hadn't unleashed an X-flare all year long. In only two days, sunspot AR1748 has produced four. The latest X-flare from this active sunspot occured this morning at 0152 Universal Time. Although the sunspot is not yet directly facing Earth, this flare might have produced a CME with an Earth-directed component.
AR1748 has produced an X1.7-class flare (0217 UT on May 13), an X2.8-class flare (1609 UT on May 13), an X3.2-class flare (0117 UT on May 14), and an X1-class flare (0152 on May 15). These are the strongest flares of the year, and they signal a significant increase in solar activity.
Although AR1748 is not directly facing Earth, its strong flares have nevertheless affected our atmosphere. UV and X-radiation hitting the top of the atmosphere ionizes atoms and molecules, creating ion waves over the dayside of the planet. Sudden ionospheric disturbances -- "SIDs" for short -- make themselves known by the effect they have on low-frequency radio signals. When a SID passes by, the atmosphere overhead becomes an good reflector for radio waves, allowing signals to be received from distant transmitters. More SIDS are in the offing. (video)

**Hospitality: making your guests feel at home,
even if you wish they were.**


LARGEST QUAKES -

Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.8 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G

Yesterday -
5/14/13 -
5.6 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.7 SOUTHERN PERU
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
6.8 PAGAN REG., N. MARIANA ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Mexico's Popocatepetl volcano has spewed a new column of ash with some of the material falling on three towns while glowing rocks landed on the towering mountain's slope. The volcano belched out a cloud of ash that rose four kilometres above its crater at 8:21pm on Tuesday (1121 AEST on Wednesday).
The ministry said "light quantities of ash" dropped on Paso de Cortes, a Mexico state community at the foot of the volcano, and the towns of Atlixco and Huejotzingo in the state of Puebla, some 23km away. Molten rocks were thrown one kilometre away, landing on the volcano's northern slope. The smoke was blowing toward the northeast. Mexico City is 55km northwest of Popocatepetl.
The volcano had already spewed some ash and rocks on Tuesday morning but a senior official later reported that it had calmed down. The disaster prevention centre reported low-level activity later on, including a 40-minute low-intensity tremor. The volcano has been rumbling and spewing steam, ash and rocks sporadically for days, prompting authorities to raise the alert level and prepare for possible evacuations last weekend.
Last week, Popocatepetl covered several towns in ash, including the capital of Puebla state. Authorities have raised the alert level to "Yellow Phase Three", the fifth of a seven-stage warning system, restricting access to an area of 12km around the volcano while preparing evacuation routes and shelters.
Video

TROPICAL STORMS -

In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical Cyclone Mahasen was located approximately 377 nm south of Calcutta, India.

Cyclone Kills 7 in Sri Lanka; Thousands Displaced - Cyclone Mahasen in the Bay of Bengal killed at least seven people in Sri Lanka. Mahasen, which brought heavy rains and landslides to Sri Lanka, was expected to hit Bangladesh and Burma later this week.
“Seven people have died and 10 people have got injured. There are 7,399 people from 1,947 families affected." 3,881 people have been displaced due to the cyclone. Three people were missing due to heavy rains and landslides. Officials at Sri Lanka's Department of Meteorology have said the center of Cyclone Mahasen is located 900 km off the island nation's eastern coastal town of Pottuvil.
On Tuesday, a boat carrying about 100 Rohingya Muslims capsized off western Burma and many were feared drowned at the beginning of a mass evacuation from low-lying regions ahead of a powerful storm. The tropical depression threatens areas of Myanmar where about 140,000 victims of ethnic and religious unrest are living in camps. The United Nations warned last week there could be a humanitarian catastrophe if people were not evacuated.
Mahasen is expected to hit northeast India in the next 72 hours with heavy rains and thunderstorms expected in the region. On May 16, the cyclone is expected to cross the Bangladesh coast. Bangladesh warned millions of people on Monday that the cyclone could barrel into their coastal homes later this week as authorities in Myanmar began moving potential victims to higher ground.

Fifteen of the twenty deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms that hit Bangladesh, India, or Myanmar. The most recent of these horrifying storms was 2008's Cyclone Nargis, which killed 146,000 people in Myanmar.
The Bay of Bengal's notorious history is why hurricane forecasters are watching Tropical Cyclone Mahasen a little nervously today. Even though there has been little change to the 55 mph tropical storm over the past two days, the storm remains a potential threat to undergo rapid intensification into a dangerous major hurricane, although it is running out of time to do so. Ocean waters are an exceptionally warm 31°C (88°F), about 1°C warmer than average for this time of year. The warm ocean waters extend to great depth, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is over 90 J/kg/cm^2, which is favorable for rapid intensification.
The official forecast brings Mahasen to Category 1 strength before landfall occurs in Bangladesh near the Myanmar border on Thursday near 18 UTC. However, the model forecasts of Mahasen from the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, GEM, NAVGEM, and FIM models continue to show wide disagreement on the future intensity, speed, and landfall location of the storm. It is possible that wind shear will keep the storm disorganized and below hurricane strength until landfall, as suggested by the ECMWF model.
Mahasen was approaching a trough of low pressure to its northwest that is expected to recurve the storm to the northeast into Bangladesh. There is a lot of hot, dry air to the storm's northwest over India, and if this dry air gets wrapped into Mahasen's circulation, it could put the brakes on rapid intensification.
Even a weakening Category 1 storm has the potential to bring a devastating storm surge to the coast of Bangladesh, and torrential rainfall will be a major flooding threat regardless of the storm's final intensity at landfall. The 00Z May 13 run of the HWRF model predicts that the Mahasen will dump a significant area of heavy rains of 16 - 30 cm (6 - 12") over Maynmar and Bangladesh. The storm surge, high winds, and heavy rains of Mahasen are a particular concern for the thousands of Myanmar refugees living near the coast in makeshift camps.
Mahasen spun up in response to an active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) that has been moving through the Indian Ocean during the past week. The MJO is a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. The strong MJO pulse coincided with a convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin wave (CCKW), a wave of increased heat and moisture propagating along the Equator, which helped increase thunderstorm activity. The active pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to reach the Western Caribbean (in a somewhat weakened state) May 21 - 25, and there will be a heightened chance of an early-season tropical storm forming in the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean during that time period.

HEALTH THREATS -

Six new Saudi coronavirus cases include 2 health workers. Two healthcare workers are among six new novel coronavirus (nCoV) cases reported in Saudi Arabia since late yesterday, suggesting that the virus might have spread from infected patients to hospital staff members.

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

On Alaska Peninsula, another volcano awakens - Another Alaska volcano has grumbled to life. Pavlof Volcano on the Alaska Peninsula awoke Monday morning, kicking off a "low-level eruption of lava," according to the Alaska Volcano Observatory. Pavlof, about 30 miles northeast of the community of King Cove, is a frequently-active volcano that last erupted in 2007.
Shortly after 11:30 Monday, the AVO posted the following update to its website on the status of Pavlof volcano: "Seismic activity at Pavlof Volcano increased this morning commensurate with the presence of an intense thermal anomaly at the summit observed in the latest satellite imagery. Similar patterns of seismicity and elevated surface temperatures have previously signaled the onset of eruptive activity at Pavlof. Although not yet visually confirmed, a low-level eruption of lava has likely begun from a summit vent. No ash clouds have been detected."
The AVO also elevated the alert level at the volcano to "orange," indicating heightened activity and possible further eruption. Unlike Mount Cleveland -- a remote volcano located on a small Aleutian island and the only other volcano exhibiting activity in the Last Frontier at the moment -- there is an extensive monitoring system set up at Pavlof due to its location and how often it's active. "There’s a full seismic network on Pavlof. It’s historically about the most active volcano in the Aleutian Arc ... it’s had around 40 or 41 eruptions. It doesn’t have large eruptions, but it erupts frequently." There is also satellite imagery and usually a webcam monitoring the peak, though that camera is currently offline.
Reports of possible eruptions at the volcano date back to 1762, when historical accounts suggested an eruption in the area, though that activity may also have come from Pavlof Sister, another eruptive peak very close by. The most recent eruption at Pavlof, in 2007, featured spitting lava and small ash clouds during a month-long stretch of heightened activity. "Nothing unusual was observed during the summer of 2007 and the seismicity was at background levels through Aug. 13. Abruptly on the morning of Aug. 14, the five-station seismic network on Pavlof began recording low-frequency earthquakes occurring at a rate of two to seven events every 10 minutes, a pattern that had preceded eruptions in 1996, 1986, 1983, and 1981."
Scientists expect this most recent activity to resemble the 2007 event. Pavlof does not have a large caldera where lava builds, but rather numerous vents around the peak where gases build up and lava escapes. In such "fountaining" events, "a bubble of lava rises to the surface and sort of 'pops' and spews out chunks and blobs of lava." This is also different from the often-active Cleveland volcano, which usually sees a slowly building lava dome, which can lead to further eruptions and bursts of ash from the caldera. Cleveland was upgraded again on May 4, when satellite imagery caught a small event at the peak.
Keep an eye on Pavlof, and Alaska's other volcanoes, at the Alaska Volcano Observatory.

**As you get older three things happen.
The first is your memory goes.
And I can’t remember the other two.**
Norman Wisdom


LARGEST QUAKES -

Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
7.0 PAGAN REG., N. MARIANA ISLANDS

Yesterday -
5/13/13 -
None 5.0 or higher

Earthquakes in Iran spark fears across the region - Earthquakes have been rocking Iran — sending a wave of fear across the region.
An earthquake measuring 5.5 on the Richter scale on Sunday jolted southern Iran close to the Strait of Hormuz around 2.45pm UAE time. The National Centre of Meteorology and Seismology recorded the quake, saying that it was an aftershock of the 6.2 magnitude earthquake that hit Iran’s southern Hormozgan province early on Saturday. The epicentre of the earthquake was located some 20km deep inside the earth, some 207km to the northeast of Ras Al Khaimah. Tremors were, however, not felt anywhere in the UAE.
Continuous earthquakes in seismically active Iran have been a source of concern for people in neighbouring countries, including the UAE. In just one month, hundreds of minor to moderate intensity quakes have rocked Iran, some of them even jolting parts of the UAE. The biggest quake in 50 years hit Iran last month with a magnitude of 7.8. It came a week after another struck near the Iranian port city of Bushehr that houses Iran’s controversial nuclear power plant. There was, however, no damage reported to the plant.
The phenomenon gave way to rumours in the UAE saying that a severe earthquake would hit the region. It was swiftly denied by the NCMS and the US Geological Survey. People are still worried — despite the fact scientists have repeatedly said that nobody can predict when and where an earthquake will hit.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Volcano activity on Sunday - Popocatépetl (Central Mexico): The activity continued to increase over the past days and CENAPRED raised the alert level to Yellow Phase 3 in the morning. The volcano has been producing frequent sequences of continuous steam and ash emissions as well as discrete vulcanian-type explosions that throw glowing bombs to several hundred meters distance from the crater and create ash plumes up to about 2 km high. A phase of strong volcanic tremor occurred Sunday and a large SO2 plume visible on NOAA satellite data accompanies increased lava output rate.
Tungurahua (Ecuador): Seismic and surface activity remain moderate with ash emissions and intermittent strong strombolian to vulcanian explosions which sometimes are accompanied by ground vibration and strong shock waves that rattle windows and doors in nearby areas. An explosion on Friday produced an ash plume rising up to 30,000 ft (9 km) elevation. Ash falls have been occurring in areas of Santa Fe de Galán, Mocha, Sabañag, Tisaleo and Quero.
Sabancaya (Peru): Possible eruptions have started at the volcano. Pilots reported several volcanic ash plumes from the volcano in the past days although VAAC Buenos Aires could not identify ash on satellite imagery.
Copahue (Chile/Argentina): SERNAGEOMIN has recently raised the alert back to yellow after new small explosions occurred at the volcano and incandescence was observed at the summit crater. A small but persistent steam-and-ash plume has been rising about 350 m from the volcano. Interestingly, little change in the seismic activity has been noticed with the incandescence and explosions, so it is not clear whether this new activity is caused by fresh magma rising towards the surface.

TROPICAL STORMS -

In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical Cyclone Mahasen was located approximately 562 nm south-southwest of Kolkata, India.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Another twist to the weather - U.S. tornadoes are few, and far between. Add tornadoes — or rather, the lack of them — to the latest round of weather phenomena. Iowa is on the verge of setting a record for most consecutive days without a EF1 tornado, according to the National Weather Service. Nebraska is about 20 days from doing the same.
Nationwide, a RECORD RECENTLY SET FOR THE FEWEST EF1 TORNADOES IN A 12-MONTH PERIOD. An EF1 tornado has wind speeds of at least 86 mph. The reason for so few tornadoes? The weather pattern that established historic drought across the region last year also suffocated tornado development.
This year, we have opposite conditions but the same result. The weather pattern that has allowed spring to be so cool and wet has robbed the atmosphere of the instability needed to spawn tornadoes. Extreme weather has led to a number of records lately, including 2012 as NEBRASKA'S HOTTEST, DRIEST YEAR. This May is SETTING RECORDS FOR SNOWFALL.
The last time Iowa had a confirmed tornado was May 24, 2012. If no tornadoes occur through Wednesday, the state will surpass the record of 355 days set at the end of April 1956. “To have gone this long without one is PRETTY EXTRAORDINARY.”
Preliminary numbers for May 2012 through April 2013 indicate that 197 tornadoes rated EF1 or stronger occurred in the United States. Lesser tornadoes weren't factored into this analysis because they cause little damage and may even have gone unnoticed in the past, so the historical record is considered suspect. Also notable: The tornado drought is occurring two years after the worst year for total tornadoes. From May 2010 through June 2011, more than 1,000 EF1 or stronger tornadoes occurred.
The Nebraska record for consecutive days without a tornado is 371, ending May 3, 2003. As of today, Nebraska has gone 354 days since its last EF1 or stronger tornado. Nebraska has had a handful of EF0 tornadoes — those with winds up to 85 mph — in the past year. As is typically the case, they caused no noticeable damage.
Tornado droughts make weather experts nervous. They worry that the public will become complacent. “We're looking at a lull now, but the switch could go on at anytime. That's something people need to know.” Tornado season in Nebraska and Iowa typically kicks into gear in May and peaks in June. The ingredient that has been missing this spring has been a flow of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico.
Pent up for now, Gulf air eventually will cut loose and flow north. When that happens, the potential for tornadoes will rise. Annual tornado numbers are deceptive, because tornadoes occur in swarms. High-number years typically get those numbers from intense tornado outbreaks. May 22, 2004, is an example. About 60 tornadoes occurred across the region that day, including one that obliterated Hallam, Nebraska. “We need to be prepared and on our toes.”

SPACE WEATHER -

Another space rock strikes Earth - Another meteorite struck a home in Connecticut. Superstition rose in Connecticut this week as yet another meteor was discovered in a Connecticut town beginning with the letter “W.” “That’s just crazy. It’s just unbelievable,”a Waterbury resident said as his home was the most recent to have been impacted by the falling space rocks. His wife found the asteroid in their front gutter when he noticed it leaking, and she called Yale University, which is currently examining the asteroid.
The high density, dark crust and high magnetism confirm that it is a meteorite. Scientists at Yale believe that this meteorite is related to a similar meteorite discovery just 19 days prior in nearby town Wolcott. “The first impression is that you would think that the two are connected. The Waterbury one was not an ‘observed fall,’ so we really don’t know exactly when it fell. We do know that it fell very recently, however.” The Waterbury asteroid is small enough to hold in your hand and weighs about 1.6 pounds.
Oddly, all except one reported meteor strike in Connecticut have occurred in towns beginning with the letter “W.” Weston and Wethersfield are the two other towns to have seen asteroids in the past. However, it is apparently just a coincidence. “The Earth is hit by 15,000 tons of extraterrestrial material a year.” Due to Connecticut’s dense population there is a larger chance for discovery there.
The Weston meteorite fell in 1807. During that time, rocks were not supposed to fall from the sky, and people were both confused and terrified. The meteorite illuminated the landscape, with reports of viewing from as far away as Virginia, and it split as it entered the atmosphere, resulting in scattered pieces across the Connecticut landscape.

HEALTH THREATS -

New tool for retail delis to target Listeria contamination - Federal food regulators unveiled an extensive study of how Listeria monocytogenes behaves in a retail delicatessen that they hope merchants, food producers, and even consumers will use as a 'virtual deli' to better understand contamination and prevention steps.

[Next three items are all at this link] RECORD WEST NILE DEATHS IN 2012 in the U.S. US states confirmed 5,674 cases of West Nile virus (WNV) disease last year, the highest since 2003, and 286 West Nile deaths, THE MOST EVER. Of the cases reported in the contiguous 48 states, 2,873 (51%) were classified as the more serious neuroinvasive form, which includes manifestations such as meningitis, encephalitis, and acute flaccid paralysis.
Texas accounted for a third (1,868) of all WNV cases, and 62% of cases were concentrated in seven states: California, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Texas. "Last summer's outbreak likely resulted from many factors, including higher-than-normal temperatures that influenced mosquito and bird abundance, the replication of the virus in its host mosquitoes, and interactions of birds and mosquitoes in hard-hit areas." The best way to prevent WNV disease is to avoid mosquito bites.

Somalia's first wild poliovirus case since 2007 triggers alert - A report of Somalia's first wild poliovirus (WPV) case since 2007 has triggered a surveillance alert and mass vaccination plans. The preliminary report of a WPV came from the Banadir region, where the virus was found in specimens collected Apr 21 from a 32-month-old girl who had acute flaccid paralysis and in specimens from three of her contacts. Because large parts of central and southern Somalia have not run vaccination drives since 2009, "the confirmation of WPV circulation would constitute a serious national and international risk to public health." A surveillance alert has been announced for all of Somalia and neighboring areas of northern Kenya and eastern Ethiopia. Also, plans call for an oral polio vaccine drive targeting all children under age 5 in the Banadir region, starting May 14.

Billions still without access to proper sanitation - Although 1.9 billion more people have gained access to improved sanitation since 1990, about 2.5 billion people, or A THIRD OF THE WORLD'S POPULATION, will remain without such access in 2015. "There is an urgent need to ensure all the necessary pieces are in place — political commitment, funding, leadership — so the world can accelerate progress and reach the Millennium Development Goal sanitation target."
64% of the world's population had access to improved sanitation facilities. And of the 2.5 billion who lack access to improved sanitation, 761 million use public or shared sanitation facilities and 693 million use facilities that do not meet minimum hygiene standards. On the upside, the 2015 goal for drinking-water access was surpassed in 2010, but about 768 million people are still without improved sources for drinking water.

RECALLS & ALERTS