Tuesday, July 22, 2014

 
Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.
 

** Car trouble and basement water trouble, and other troubles, troubled me enough to keep me from updating yesterday and made the update short and late today. Very troublesome.**

NO UPDATE ON WEDNESDAY THIS WEEK.

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
This morning -
5.1 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.0 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION

 Yesterday, 7/20/14  -
6.9 FIJI REGION
5.0 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE

7/19/14 -
6.2 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 CHIAPAS, MEXICO
5.6 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND

 TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.
*In the Atlantic -
 Tropical depression Two is located about 800 mi (1290 km) E of the Lesser Antilles. The Depression expected to weaken as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

* In the Western Pacific Ocean -
 Typhoon Matmo is located approximately 106 nm south-southwest of Taipei, Taiwan.

HEALTH THREATS -
 RECALLS & ALERTS:
 
 RECALL ALERT: A voluntary nationwide fruit recall has been issued by a grocery store supplier over concerns of possible listeria contamination. Costco and Trader Joe's are among the retailers that received the recalled fruit — fresh peaches, plums, nectarines and pluots.

 *****
Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook   with breaking news during the day.

Sunday, July 20, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**If you think you can win, you can win. Faith is necessary to victory.**
William Hazlitt


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.1 CHIAPAS, MEXICO
5.6 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND

Yesterday, 7/19/14 -
6.0 OWEN FRACTURE ZONE REGION
6.2 TONGA
5.2 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

7/18/14 -
5.1 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.6 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.2 VANUATU

Higher earthquake risk for eastern US - A new US geological survey indicates that some parts of the US are at an increased risk of earthquakes, especially along the east coast. "The eastern US has the potential for larger and more damaging earthquakes than considered in previous maps and assessments."
The East Coast experienced one of its largest quakes for 100 years in 2011. The 5.8 magnitude quake was centred on rural Virginia but was felt by hundreds of thousands of people, including in Washington DC. Parts of states including Alaska, Hawaii, Oregon and California remain at the highest risk of seismic activity. Major fault lines exist along the entire US West Coast, as well as in the Midwest near Illinois and Missouri.
"While all states have some potential for earthquakes, 42 of the 50 states have a reasonable chance of experiencing damaging ground shaking from an earthquake in 50 years. The hazard is especially high along the West Coast, intermountain west, and in several active regions of the central and eastern US." The 16 states at highest risk are: Alaska, Arkansas, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.
Meanwhile, several states saw their risk of seismic activity lower, including Texas, Oregon, Utah and New York. Earthquakes caused by fracking - utilising a mixture of water, sand and chemicals pumped underground at high pressure to crack open sedimentary rocks and release the fuels within - were not included in the analysis. Several hundred earthquakes have hit Oklahoma so far this year, with fracking named a primary culprit, although the impact of fracking on earthquake risks is disputed.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the Western Pacific -
- Typhoon Matmo is located approximately 418 nm east of Manila, Philippines.
-----------
Typhoon Rammasun made it’s final landfall in northern-most Vietnam as a Category 2 and is quickly weakening and losing its identity as it continues moving inland.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm MATMO (10W) continues to become better organized, and is currently approaching Typhoon intensity. The cyclone has an estimated pressure of 975 mb, and was last located about 600 NM East-Southeast of Manila, Philippines, moving WNW at about 5Kts. As the storm moves northwestward, the cyclone will find a region of lowering wind shear.
This general fall-off of wind shear along with the overall improvement in the outflow pattern, should support a more rapid intensification phase beginning in about 24-36 hours. All of the specialized hurricane forecast models are in generally good agreement that MATMO will intensify to CAT 2 by the time it approaches Taiwan by the middle of next week.
A couple models are calling for a much stronger storm – though these appear to be outliers at this point (as are some of the Japanese models that originally showed a more northerly track towards Japan). It is worth noting that after 6 model runs forecasting only minor development, the GFS has come back into excellent agreement with the Hurricane models in forecasting a vigorous cyclone, tracking it towards Taiwan.

Last night, ‘WALI’ essentially fell apart. (This assumes it actually ‘existed’ as a Tropical Storm to begin with.)

The Atlantic remains uneventful but is becoming more 'interesting'.

Typhoon Rammasun - Monster storm buffets south China. The biggest typhoon to hit southern China in 40 years has killed 17 people, after wreaking death and destruction on the Philippines. Most of the people killed in the Philippines were hit by falling debris and trees, disaster officials said, while some of six people reported missing had been at sea on boats. Typhoon Rammasun killed at least eight people on the island of Hainan, with others missing, and nine in the Guangxi region.
It made landfall on Friday with winds exceeding 200km/h (124mph). At least 94 people were killed when Rammasun ravaged the northern Philippines earlier this week. The storm is also affecting Vietnam, where heavy rain is expected before it starts to weaken on Monday. Air, rail and road traffic was suspended in parts of China while TV channels showed roads littered with debris including uprooted trees and rooftops.
On Hainan, another source gave the death toll as 18 while the number of people missing is said to be between two and five. It is the strongest typhoon experienced by southern China since the 1973 typhoon season. The typhoon prompted mass evacuations, flooding and power cuts.
A new typhoon, Matmo, with maximum winds of 150km/h, is now threatening the area ravaged by Rammasun, About 20 major storms hit the Philippines a years. The south-east Asian country often bears the brunt of the storms, which mass above the warm Pacific Ocean waters. (photos)
Typhoon Rammasun was THE STRONGEST TYPHOON TO HIT SOUTHERN CHINA IN FOUR DECADES. It has destroyed tens of thousands of homes.

Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook - with breaking news during the day.

Friday, July 18, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**In a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.**
Warren Buffett

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
This morning -
5.2 VANUATU

Yesterday, 7/17/14 -
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.2 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 PAPUA, INDONESIA
6.0 SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY, CANADA
5.1 TAIWAN REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.
*In the Western Pacific -
- Typhoon Rammasun islocated approximately 250 nm east of Hanoi, Vietnam. The system will track into southern China.

- Tropical Storm Matmo is located approximately 225 nm north of Koror, Palau.

* In the Central Pacific Ocean -
- Tropical storm Wali is located about 925 mi (1490 km) ESE of Hilo, Hawaii. With the cyclone already feeling the ill effects of increasing vertical wind shear, the window for Wali to intensify has closed.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -
12 hours of lightning strikes in the United Kingdom from 21:00 Thursday to 9:00 Friday. Parts of south-east England have recorded the hottest day of the year after dramatic electrical storms.
Temperatures in Gravesend, Kent, nudged 32C (90F), beating the previous high of 29.5C, recorded on Thursday, as much of the country enjoyed the sun. The sweltering heat came after lightning struck the UK more than 3,000 times in the early hours of Friday.
But the Met Office is warning of more storms and, in England and east Wales, flash flooding is on the way. Storms developing in France on Friday night will move north across the UK but that where exactly would be affected was difficult to predict. The Met Office has issued a heat health alert for southern England and the Midlands, warning that "heavy thunderstorms in eastern areas on Saturday will lead to slightly lower maximum temperatures, but it will still be very humid". (photos at link)
Lightning video

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -
Washington Wildfires Burn Homes, Force Evacuations - A cluster of four Washington wildfires swelled Friday morning has burned up to 100 homes and swelled to more than 260 square miles.
The Carlton Complex fires were ignited by lightning on Monday, and the four wildfires — fueled by dry timber and grass — ballooned overnight. The worst of the four fires forced closure of highways 20 and 153 and cut power to the Methow Valley, a premier resort area.
The entire town of Pateros — along the Columbia River — was evacuated late Thursday, and the 700 residents were ordered not to return to their homes Friday. Evacuation warnings were also issued for parts of Brewster, northeast along the river.
Seventy miles to the south, another stretch of wildfires has chased people from nearly 900 homes near the Bavarian-themed town of Leavenworth. More than 45 square miles have burned in the Mills Canyon Complex — three separate blazes including the Chiwaukum Creek Fire that prompted the evacuations. More than 800 firefighters backed by large aerial water tankers were battling the flames. Smoke from that fire has been visible from Seattle.

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS:

Eye test may be able to detect Alzheimer's decades before onset. Bright dots in the eyes reveal proteins called beta amyloids and are visible in the retina of a patient diagnosed with Alzheimer's diseases. Beta amyloids are typically found in the brain and have been known to be linked to Alzheimer's.

*****

Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook with breaking news during the day.

Thursday, July 17, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Perpetual optimism is a force multiplier.**
Colin Powell


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.2 PAPUA, INDONESIA
6.0 SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY, CANADA
5.1 TAIWAN REGION

Yesterday, 7/16/14 -
5.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.5 TONGA
5.1 LOYALTY ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the Western Pacific -
- Typhoon Rammasun is located approximately 288 nm south of Hong Kong.

- Tropical depression 10 is located approximately 175 nm west-northwest of Yap.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

First day of the noon updating and I'm already late. I'll get this worked out!

**Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any one thing.**
Abraham Lincoln


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.3 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.3 TONGA
5.1 LOYALTY ISLANDS

Yesterday, 7/15/14 -
5.0 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.6 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.7 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.7 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA

Quake-warning system for West Coast gets a boost in Congress - A proposal for an earthquake-warning system for the West Coast gained ground Tuesday as a congressional committee recommended the first federal funds - $5 million - specifically for the project.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the Western Pacific -
- Typhoon Rammasun is located approximately 114 nm west-northwest of Manila, Philippines.
-----------
Typhoon Rammasun Kills 12 in the Philippines - Category 2 Typhoon Rammasun hit the Philippines’ capital city of Manila, where 12 million people live, near 6 pm EDT Tuesday night (22 UTC). The center of the typhoon passed within 40 miles of the city, and had top winds rated at 105 mph at the time. This makes Rammasun one of the most powerful typhoons ever to directly affect Manila.
Fortunately, Rammasun’s eyewall collapsed as it approached Manila, and top winds at the Manila airport reached only 20 mph. However, Rammasun is being blamed for twelve deaths elsewhere in the Philippines. The typhoon came ashore in the Philippines in the Bicol Region of Luzon Island near 5 am EDT on Tuesday, as a Category 3 storm with sustained winds near 125 mph.
Rammasun was the first typhoon to strike the Philippines since devastating Category 5 Super Typhoon Haiyan in November 2013, which left over 7,300 people dead or missing. Rammasun's eye passed just north of Samar Island where Haiyan initially made landfall, and brought sustained winds of 40 mph to Haiyan's ground zero, the city of Guiuan.
The high winds blew down many of the tents of the people whose homes were destroyed in Tacloban after Super Typhoon Haiyan, but Rammasun’s winds and flooding were not extreme there, and most of the people who evacuated to temporary shelters during the typhoon have now returned.
Rammasun will have the opportunity to re-strengthen over the South China Sea before making a second landfall in China near Hainan Island on Friday. Given the typhoon’s current state of disorganization, it will take at least a day for it to take advantage of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots and very warm water temperatures and regain Category 2 strength. Our two top track models, the GFS and European, predict a landfall in China between 03 - 9 UTC on Friday.

ATLANTIC REMAINS QUIET - FOR NOW. The tropical Atlantic Basin remains rather quiet, as relatively dry air dominates the CARIB eastward to the west African Coast. There are only a couple easily discernible Tropical Waves – with only the one in the far eastern Atlantic of even minimal interest. The one reasonably discernible Tropical Wave shows some modest tendency for ‘spinning’ with isolated convection associated with this disturbance. However, the tropical wave appears to be inter-twined with the ITCZ which is likely enhancing what little convection there is.
All of the more reliable global models, along with some of the more experimental forecast tools that rely on the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) and CCKW (Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves) are not forecasting any tropical cyclone spin-ups during the next 10-14 days, and none is expected.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

Amid drought, California to impose fines up to $500 a day for wasting water.

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Gigantic hole mysteriously appears in Siberia. A 260-foot-wide crater has been discovered in Siberia's Yamal Peninsula, baffling scientists. What caused the hole? No one knows yet, but a team of scientists are en route in hopes of figuring it out.
The hole measures about 80 meters wide and has an unknown depth. The hole resembles a sinkhole, but dirt appears to have been thrown outside of the crater. This suggests maybe an impact of some kind. Speculation is ranging from an underground gas explosion to a meteorite impact.
A team from the Centre of the Study of the Arctic and the Cryosphere Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences plan to take several samples including air, soil and water. A spokesman from Russia’s Emergencies Ministry ruled out a meteorite. “We can definitely say that it is not a meteorite."
A polar scientist said that it’s likely a collapsed pingo. A pingo is a block of ice that has grown into a small hill in the permafrost. The pingo then melts and collapses, leaving behind an exposed crater. “We’re seeing much more activity in permafrost areas than we’ve seen in the historical past. A lot of this relates to this high degree of warming around these high arctic areas which are experiencing some of the highest rates of warming on earth."
Scientists get to the site today. (aerial footage at link)

SPACE WEATHER -

All Sky Fireball Network - On Jul. 16, the network reported 37 fireballs.

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS

US lawmakers press CDC chief over 'dangerous pattern' of lapses - U.S. lawmakers today faulted a "dangerous pattern" of safety lapses at government laboratories handling deadly pathogens such as anthrax and avian flu, calling for an overhaul of controls at the Centers for Disease Control.

*****
Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook - with breaking news during the day.

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

Major computer issues the last couple of days. I am going to change the update time and post a new update at noon everyday instead of midnight, until I get the internet issues sorted.

**We gain strength, and courage, and confidence
by each experience in which we really stop to look fear in
the face....we must do that which we think we cannot.**
Eleanor Roosevelt


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA

Yesterday, 7/14/14 -
5.1 OFF COAST OF SOUTHERN PERU
6.3 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.5 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.5 JAVA, INDONESIA

7/13/14 -
5.9 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.5 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.3 COQUIMBO, CHILE

7/12/14 -
5.0 VANUATU
5.4 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.5 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

7/11/14 -
6.5 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.3 NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN
5.4 NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN

Strong 6.4 quake hits off Philippines - no damage. The quake was detected 88 kilometres (55 miles) southeast from the coastal town of Don Marcelino but was barely noticed by residents.

6.8 magnitude Quake in East Japan tiggered a small tsunami. An earthquake of magnitude 6.8 occurred on Saturday off the eastern coast of Japan, triggering a small tsunami with waves up to 20 inches near Fukushima's crippled nuclear power plant.
Seismologists said the earthquake was an aftershock of the huge tremor that hit Japan. Japan is braced for more aftershocks of the giant quake.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the Western Pacific -
- Typhoon Rammasun is located approximately 289 nm east-southeast of Manila, Philippines.
-----------
The Philippines Islands are bracing for the impact of Typhoon Rammasun, the islands' first typhoon since the devastating strike by Category 5 Super Typhoon Haiyan in November 2013. Haiyan was the deadliest and most expensive natural disaster in Philippines history.
Fortunately, Rammasun is much weaker - a mere Category 1 storm. Top winds were 85 mph (1-minute average from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center), and the central pressure was 975 mb at 8 am EDT on Monday morning - a far cry from the incredible 195 mph sustained winds and central pressure of 895 mb of Haiyan at its peak. Rammasun is intensifying, though. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed a steady increase in the intensity and areal coverage of the typhoon's heavy thunderstorms.
With wind shear a light 5 - 10 knots and Sea Surface Temperatures a very warm 30°C, further intensification is likely until landfall occurs. Philippines radar showed the outer spiral bands of Rammasun were already affecting Samar Island, where Haiyan initially made landfall. The core of Rammasun will pass north of Samar Island and strike the main Philippines island of Luzon, with the center passing very near the capital of Manila early Wednesday (local time).
The main concern will be flash flooding and mudslides over Luzon and Samar, but wind damage also has the potential to be considerable, since the typhoon is passing over the most heavily populated part of Luzon. After crossing Luzon, Rammasun will have the opportunity to re-strengthen over the South China Sea before making a second landfall in China near Hainan Island on Friday. Our two top track models, the GFS and European, predict a landfall in China between 03 - 12 UTC on Friday.

Quiet in the Atlantic - None of the reliable models for predicting genesis of Atlantic tropical cyclones is predicting development over the next five days. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by dry air and high wind shear, and SSTs are 0.2°C below average in the Hurricane Main Development region between the coast of Africa and Central America. If we get another tropical storm this month, the most likely area for formation would be off the Southeast U.S. coast or in the Gulf of Mexico.

Extreme heat in Western Canada, UNUSUAL COOLNESS in Midwest U.S.- The remnants of Super Typhoon Neoguri, which pushed northeastwards into Alaska after the storm hit Japan last week, set in motion a chain-reaction set of events that has dramatically altered the path of the jet stream and affected weather patterns across the entire Northern Hemisphere.
Neoguri caused an acceleration of the North Pacific jet stream, which amplified a trough low pressure over Alaska, causing a ripple effect in the jet stream over western North America, where a strong ridge of high pressure developed. The ridge helped push temperatures as high as 106°F (41.1°C) in British Columbia on Sunday.
A compensating strong trough of low pressure formed over the Midwest U.S., and that trough is now pumping cool, polar air southwards into the Upper Midwest. The high temperature in Minneapolis on Monday was in the low 60s, about 15°F below average, and SETTING A RECORD FOR COLDEST JULY 14 IN HISTORY. This jet stream pattern is similar to the nasty "Polar Vortex" pattern that set up during the winter of 2014 over North America, but calling it the polar vortex in this case is not technically correct.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Severe Storms, Flooding to Threaten DC, NYC, Roanoke - The Northeast and mid-Atlantic will be faced with severe thunderstorms and flooding downpours through at least Tuesday before the new week ends on a more refreshing note. Severe thunderstorms are the last thing those still cleaning up after last Tuesday's deadly severe weather want to hear.
A strong line of damaging storms moved through western and central Pennsylvania Sunday evening and damage was reported in the town of Elizabeth, Pennsylvania. Strong storms also moved through Reading Center, New York, and damage was reported, related to a possible tornado.
As the front sinks southward early this week, the severe weather danger will focus on southwestern New England and more of the mid-Atlantic, as well as southern Kentucky, Tennessee and southeastern Missouri. As is typical, the afternoon and evening hours will likely prove to be more active than the morning. Monday's threat zone encompassed New York City, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., Roanoke, Virginia, and Nashville, Tennessee.
Farther to the west, a couple of gusty thunderstorms will also fire Monday afternoon within a separate zone from St. Louis to Indianapolis to Detroit. An end to the severe weather threat will not come with the close of Monday. Instead, a stronger cold front that marks the leading edge of SEPTEMBER-LIKE COOL AIR plunging into the Midwest will spark more heavy thunderstorms throughout the East and South on Tuesday.
Tuesday's thunderstorms will cross some of the same areas in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic being threatened by severe weather through Monday. Additional flash flooding problems may unfold, especially where thunderstorms are slow moving, repeat over the same area and/or track over areas that first become soaked by the storms on Sunday or Monday.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists are also concerned for some of the thunderstorms to turn severe from South Carolina to New Hampshire. Within this zone lies the cities of Augusta, Georgia, Raleigh, North Carolina, Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, New York City and Hartford, Connecticut. The magnitude of the severe weather will be dependent on morning cloud cover and thunderstorms.
For places that do see enough sunshine, similar threats as to those with the violent thunderstorms through Monday will unfold and pose dangers to lives and property. AccuWeather.com meteorologists feel the greatest severe weather threat lies from the Carolinas to the southern Delmarva Peninsula. There is a chance that torrential downpours linger along the beaches of the East Coast through Wednesday.
Less humid and quieter weather will return later in the week. While summertime heat will be absent, the core of the September-like cool air overspreading the Midwest will lose its punch before reaching the I-95 corridor.

Canada - Manitoba flood: Rain, flood waters shut down oil industry. Oil workers go weeks without work, pay in Manitoba's soggy oilfields. Wet weather and flooding in Manitoba is hitting the oil industry hard. Much of the province's oil patch is in the same area, inundated with water from heavy rain and overland flooding that hit during the Canada Day weekend.
The ground is too wet to drill. The majority of wells were shut down during the flooding and roads are still too damaged for trucks transporting oil and equipment. "It's pretty sad. It's really sad because a lot of us in the area depend on it." In the Waskada-Pierson area, 75 to 85 per cent of the wells were impacted by flooding. Tundra Oil and Gas had 90 per cent of their production shut down over the flood period and Corex Resources had 40 per cent.
"It's going to be some time before activity resumes to normal." Some in the oil business estimate the losses could be as much as $5 million per day for the province. "Over the last few days, we've discovered some spills that have happened during the flood event that nobody was able to find because the operators have been so cut off from lots of the wells and were unable to see what things were like underneath the water."
Small spills aren't uncommon and teams typically respond within two hours, but high water and road closures meant it was days before teams could reach the spills. "What happened was really a result of how quickly [the water] came. It is really important that our infrastructure is maintained and that the roads are maintained and we can safely get where we need to get and we can get equipment where we need to get equipment to look after these sites."

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

Canada - RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WAVE, wildfires grip B.C. with Vancouverites cautioned against afternoon exercise. With a heatwave forcing Vancouverites to halt their oceanside jogs and pummelling south-central B.C. with RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS, efforts to combat 63 wildfires were complicated by dry and windy weather throughout the province Monday.
In Metro Vancouver, temperatures were expected to stay as high as 30 degrees Celsius until later in the week. Environment Canada says temperatures in northern B.C. are 8 to 10 degrees Celsius above normal, and more heat records are expected to be broken this week. Record-high temperatures were measured in four communities on the weekend — Lytton, Pemberton, Lillooet and Kamloops — with the average high around 40.5C.
Close to two dozen support staff from Ontario were sent to Kamloops Monday to help manage the logistics of fighting fires in the coming days, as B.C. families were told to stay away from their homes. With lightning expected in many areas of the province, crews in all six B.C. fire centres remain on high alert. Nearly 70 people have been forced to leave as an uncontained wildfire rages in the Cariboo region west of Quesnel, B.C., but the Euchiniko Lakes blaze is not threatening any homes.
The fire, caused by lightning, grew significantly Sunday night and has scorched 20-square-kilometres of woodland 120 km west of Quesnel, since it was discovered last Tuesday. Although homes are not in immediate danger, an evacuation order was issued Sunday for two people at the Euchiniko Lake Ranch Lodge, while 66 members of the Kluskus Indian Reserve agreed to evacuate to Quesnel because of fears the flames could cut roads to the remote region.
Meanwhile, the eight-day-old Red Deer Creek fire, 61 km southeast of Tumbler Ridge, B.C., is now estimated to cover 38-square-kilometres and is uncontained, keeping three evacuated oil-and-gas camps shut down. Twenty-three of the province’s 63 fires are considered notable for their size, location or potential danger, and four, including the 62-square-kilometre Chelaslie River blaze in central B.C., are listed as interface fires threatening homes or properties.

California Braces as Drought Sparks Early Fire Season.

*****
Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook - with breaking news during the day.

Friday, July 11, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**The spirit, the will to win,
and the will to excel are the things that endure.
These qualities are so much more important
than the events that occur.**
Vince Lombardi


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
None 5.0 or larger.

Yesterday, 7/10/14 -
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.3 TONGA

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the Western Pacific -
- Typhoon Neoguri is located approximately 131 nm southwest of Camp Fuji, Japan. The final advisory has been issued on this system. The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration.

- Tropical storm Nine is located approximately 224 nm east-southeast of andersen AFB, Guam.
-----------
Tropical Storm Neoguri made landfall in Japan near the city of Akune in southwest Japan's Kagoshima Prefecture on the island of Kyushu just before 7 a.m. Japanese time Thursday (6 p.m. Wednesday Eastern time in the U.S.). Once a mighty super typhoon with 155 mph winds, the Japan Meteorological Agency estimated that Neoguri weakened to maximum 10-minute sustained winds of 60 mph at landfall (equivalent to maximum winds of about 65 to 70 mph using the U.S. 1-minute sustained wind standard.)
Neoguri tracked along the east coast of Japan on Thursday, and Japan Meteorological Agency radar showed very heavy rains in excess of one inch (25.4 mm) per hour were affecting portions of the country. On Kyushu, Ebino reported 13.20 inches (335.5 mm) of rain in the 24 hours ending at 8 a.m. Japanese time Thursday, and a 72-hour rainfall total of 398 mm (15.67 inches) was recorded at Ushibuka.
Parts of central Japan, including Nagoya, could see up to 16 inches (400 mm) of rain by Friday morning. Neoguri killed two people and injured 32 in Japan's Ryukyu Islands, which include Okinawa. The islands may have another typhoon to worry about next week - recent runs of the GFS model have been predicting that tropical disturbance 92W will develop into a tropical cyclone and potentially affect the Ryukyu Islands by the middle of next week.

Quiet in the Atlantic - None of the reliable models for predicting genesis of Atlantic tropical cyclones is predicting development over the next five days. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by dry air and high wind shear. If we get another tropical storm this month, the most likely area for formation would be off the Southeast U.S. coast or in the Gulf of Mexico.

NOAA Holds El Niño Odds at 70% for this Summer - NOAA's monthly El Niño discussion continues to project a 70% chance of El Niño forming this summer, and an 80% chance by fall. The forecasters anticipate El Niño will peak at weak-to-moderate strength during the late fall and early winter. However, the atmosphere has not been behaving like it should during an El Niño event.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - the difference in surface pressure between Darwin, Australia and the island of Tahiti - tends to drop to negative values during the presence of an El Niño atmosphere. The SOI has been trending downwards the past 50 days, but was still positive in June. Heavy thunderstorm activity over Indonesia and near the International Date Line is typically enhanced during an El Niño event, and has been picking up over the past month, but must increase more before we can say the atmosphere is responding in an El Niño-like fashion.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

U. S. - Violent Storms Killed 5, Left Thousands Without Power in 7 States. Extreme heat and humidity, combined with strong winds aloft to spark a deadly round of widespread severe thunderstorms in the eastern U.S. on Tuesday. The storms left five dead, and nearly 200,000 people remained without power on Wednesday.
Four of the deaths occurred in the rural New York town of Smithfield, which is located between Syracuse and Utica. At least four homes were flattened, and one was reportedly thrown into another home, while many others were damaged. There was also widespread damage in the towns of Sullivan and Lenox, New York. A severe thunderstorm warning was in effect at the time of the possible tornado, but not a tornado warning.
The severe storms were not limited to New York state. At one point, severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings stretched for about 500 miles, from south of Washington, D.C. to the New York-Canadian border. The storms turned deadly in Maryland as well, where a child at a summer camp was killed by a falling tree as campers sought shelter from the fast-moving storms. Six other children were injured.
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, had highlighted the elevated storm risk across Pennsylvania and New York State early on Tuesday, with forecasters predicting that a strong squall line of storms would form, capable of producing widespread damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. That is exactly what took place, except the storms were more widespread than initially suggested, as the squall line struck heavily populated areas in the New York to Washington corridor, as well as northern New England, with damage reported in northern Vermont. Several tornado reports were also noted in Pennsylvania and Ohio.

RECORD FLOODS in Brazil bring chaos to Amazon towns - For more than a month, Careiro da Varzea in the Brazilian state of Amazonas has been under water in ONE OF THE WORST FLOODS ON RECORD.
It is one of almost 40 areas in Amazonas in an emergency situation or a state of calamity affecting more than 300,000 people. Water pours through wooden bungalows in river communities, standing stagnant on the floors of their homes, bringing waterborne diseases and making access difficult without a boat. Since the end of last year, heavy rains have pushed the Rio Negro, which flows into the Amazon, to emergency levels.
Meanwhile, the biggest tributary of the Amazon, the Rio Madeira, reached RECORD HEIGHTS and caused the WORST FLOODING FOR A CENTURY across more remote parts of north-west Brazil and northern Bolivia. Experts say the water is expected to remain until the middle of July before eventually subsiding, leaving those who live on the river to rebuild their vulnerable homes.
"In this year's floods, the river reached emergency levels on 22 May. We have spent practically the whole of June above the emergency level. It's likely that this year, the time that the water has remained high and inside the homes of some of the poorest in Manaus will surpass 50 days." The flooding of the Rio Negro has caused losses of more than $200 million real ($91m; £53m) so far - worse even than during the record floods of 2012.
From the air, it is possible to see whole swathes of towns on the banks of the Rio Negro marooned by the river. And by boat, the damage to the homes is clear to spot. Many communities living on the edge of Manaus, where streams known as igarapes weave their way from the river through the city, have been affected.
"It started six months ago and it will take another six months for it to go down. The water is very close. There's a lot of debris and we don't have any sanitation. The children who study on the other side [of the igarape] have to do a big detour to get to school. The federal government should do something. The promise was that people would be moved from here before the World Cup started. Many people are suffering."
A state initiative to re-home those living in houses built on stilts has resettled several thousand families since 2003. But for those who remain, it is a matter of waiting until the water subsides before rebuilding their homes once again. "Wood is expensive to buy but we're surviving. It's worse than usual." Flooding in urban areas where the streams are contaminated brings not only economic damage but also social problems including disease.
More than 60 people have died in Bolivia as a result of the floods, and in Brazil there have been deaths from bacterial infections such as leptospirosis. "The population lives with polluted water for more than 30, 40 days inside their home and this has serious consequences for their health, especially for children." Residents improvise by laying down wooden planks as make-shift bridges, but the elderly struggle.
There is debate over what has caused this year's flooding to be so severe. Experts say extreme flooding normally happens in 10-year cycles but rivers have overflowed significantly every year for the last three years. An unexpected change in weather systems means more water vapour and consequently more rain have stayed in the Amazon, causing river levels to rise.
"Science says that one of the clearest indicators as well as one of the clearest consequences of climate change is an increase in frequency of extreme weather events. And that's what we're seeing in the Amazon. We're having record floods almost every year and when we don't have a record flood, we have a record drought." A change in attitude is required and that the changes should be seen as "a warning sign from nature that we're not doing a good job".
The annual floods are quickly becoming a nightmare for residents. "When the floods come, it's difficult. It's hard to leave for work. You wait for the bus and the bus can't pass. And when it rains in the night, it's hard to sleep."

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Mid-July Is Looking More Like Mid-September - Remember the polar vortex? Weather so cold that boiling water froze in midair? Well buckle up, America. We’re getting another dose of polar air next week, and just in time for what is normally the hottest week of the year.
While next week’s mid-summer cold snap won’t send you rushing for the nearest space heater, its origins are similar to the cold snaps that defined the brutal winter just past. The same basic large-scale weather pattern has been settled in over North America for months now, and it even has a name: the ridiculously resilient ridge.
Coupled with the occasional cut-off low pressure center dawdling over the Great Lakes region (next week’s will camp out over Quebec), it’s been a recipe for extreme warmth on the West Coast and colder than average weather out East. On the west side of the Rockies, tropical Pacific air gets funneled northward from around Hawaii toward Alaska while California dries out and roasts; on the other side, cold air from the Yukon cascades southward toward the Midwest and East Coast.
North America’s polar vortex-filled winter was almost certainly overhyped. The polar vortex isn’t a new phenomenon, nor was it behind every cold snap of the past six months. According to NOAA, while last winter was below average (by one degree Fahrenheit), winters are warming for virtually every corner of the continental United States (save one corner of southwest Louisiana).
As for next week’s weather, polar air will again be spilling southward from the Arctic Ocean. That’ll be good enough to convert what’s typically Chicago’s hottest week of the year to an unseasonably pleasant early Autumn-style respite. Chicago’s forecast high of 72 degrees Fahrenheit next Wednesday is historically much more likely to happen on September 16th than July 16th.
Cooler than normal weather is expected across much of the eastern two-thirds of the country as well, with mild temperatures from Boston to New York City to Washington, though not nearly as dramatic as in the Midwest. (maps)

*****
Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook - with breaking news during the day.