Tuesday, November 30, 2010

** Uncertainty and mystery are energies of life.
Don't let them scare you unduly, for they keep boredom at bay and spark creativity.**
R. I. Fitzhenry

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
7.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION (no reports of damage and no tsunami warnings)
5.0 TONGA

Yesterday -
11/29/10 -
5.1 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
5.1 TONGA
5.0 JUJUY, ARGENTINA
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.1 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

VOLCANOES -

Around the world -
INDONESIA: Bromo in the Tengger Caldera continues to look like its ramping to a new eruptive cycle. There have been a number of low-level ash explosions from the scoria cone, some large enough to prompt the closure of a nearby airport (~25 km away) until December 4. The government of Indonesia is preparing for potential evacuations near the volcano, but so far, only warnings to prepare for an eruption have been issues to the local residents. Meanwhile, damage to forests near Merapi has been estimated at over $611 million and potentially hundreds of years to recover. However, as Mount St. Helens shows, recovering after an eruption can be surprisingly rapid. Finally, reports continue to come in about increasing activity at the ever-busy Anak Krakatau, although weather and ash have made monitoring difficult.
Mount Bromo could be on the brink of bigger eruptions, an official from the Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation Center said. Before, eruptions had longer intervals and were smaller in scale, whereas now, the period between eruptions was much shorter and the eruptions themselves more intense.
“Bromo continues to spew ash, which it has done for the last seven days. It looks likely that there is still a lot of energy built up." The energy could still be discharged through smaller eruptions.

PHILIPPINES: Bulusan continues to be a concern for the Philippine government. However, some of the hazards are more related to weather than eruptions, as intense rains have increased the threat of remobilization of ash to produce lahars. So far the lahars have only caused damage in valley towns around the volcano, but residents are being warned as some lahars have been approaching homes near the volcano. The threat of persistent lahars near Bulusan has prompted the discussion of permanent resettlement of people who live near the volcano. The volcano continues to experience earthquakes and explosions and sulfur dioxide emissions are still relatively low, and the alert status remains at level 1.

HAWAII: The lava flows at Kilauea continue to finish off houses in the ill-fated Kalapana Gardens subdivision. Lava flows ignited fires that burned down two more structures.

There was a rumor that Taranaki in NEW ZEALAND had erupted, but it turns out that the plume observed was from a debris fall on the volcano. Heavy erosion causes Taranaki, located to the west of the main Taupo Volcanic Zone, to be unstable. The last eruption at Taranaki was in 1854.

In ICELAND, there are observations that streams issuing from Hekla Volcano are drying up, which has sometimes been a sign that the volcano may be headed towards an eruption. However, there has also been very little precipitation in Iceland, so this could also be merely a sign of this drought. There hasn’t been any earthquake activity near Hekla recently. At Heckla, "indicators have never showed any significant development until about two hours before an eruption." That had been the situation before the last eruption in 2000.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone 03S was 772 nmi ESE of Diego Garcia.

The tropical depression affecting Fiji has now dissipated and while rain continues to fall, clearing skies and fairer weather are forecast in coming days.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

AUSTRALIA - it’s been Mackay’s WETTEST NOVEMBER IN 10 YEARS and there’s more on the way. Not to mention the six cyclones forecast for the coming summer months. A La Nina climate phase has led to Mackay being inundated with 519mm of rain this month, surpassing the 503mm that fell in November 2000. La Nina is “hanging around”, and a lot more rain was expected to fall during December, January and February. “We still haven’t changed our forecast on the six cyclones that are expected to develop in the Coral Sea. And there is a possibility that one will hit the coast before the end of the year.”

Monday, November 29, 2010

MYSTERY BOOM still confounding officials - GEORGIA - 11/26/10 - A tremendous boom that shattered the quiet of a Friday night in rural west Georgia continues to defy explanation. Residents of Carroll, Douglas and Haralson counties heard it, and officials in all three counties tried to find what caused it. They're still trying. "911 calls lit up" the switchboard after the 9:45 p.m. noise rattled windows across a large area of west Georgia. There was no catastrophe, we know that." Authorities dispatched several police and fire units to the Mirror Lake subdivision when the sound was first reported, but they found no damage or even smoke. "People all over the city heard the boom, but we couldn't find anything."
The National Weather Service in Peachtree City had no natural explanation for it. And there were no obvious signs of damage on the ground. An amateur astronomer who has published several books about sky-watching said one could probably rule out a natural phenomenon such as a meteorite. "A really big meteor can make a sonic boom, but if it did it would make a big flash of light." So far, no one has reported seeing a flash in the sky, and the National Weather Service says that the clouds that were moving over Villa Rica Friday evening were mostly gone by the time of the unexplained sound. No one who called 911 reported fires or explosions. And no utility companies reported trouble either. "We’ve called everyone under the sun trying to figure this one out. We used the process of elimination and the only thing we can think of is that it was a sonic boom of some kind. To be able to be heard and felt 30 miles away in Haralson County it had to be something like that."
But there is a problem with that theory, too. A sonic boom is a large shock wave created by an aircraft that exceeds the speed of sound, about 761 mph. Since the retirement of the supersonic Concord, no civilian aircraft has been capable of reaching that speed. "Only military planes make sonic booms." There were no logs of military flights around the time of the boom Friday night. And there shouldn't have been, anyway.Military planes are only supposed to fly fast in designated zones, and there are none in that part of Georgia.

**Without mysteries, life would be very dull indeed.
What would be left to strive for if everything were known?**
Charles de Lint

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.1 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

Yesterday -
11/28/10 -
5.3 BANDA SEA
5.0 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 CENTRAL PERU
5.4 LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
5.0 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND

VOLCANOES -

INDONESIA - Local authorities have called on villagers living around Mount Bromo to keep a watchful eye in anticipation of a larger eruption that could occur at anytime. The amplitude of the shallow volcanic quake has reached 36 millimeters, or approaching the maximum amplitude of 40 millimeters, as occurred in 2004 when the volcano erupted and claimed the lives of two tourists. At least 20 shallow volcanic tremors took place for 12 hours on Saturda. “Despite the rising volcanic activity, we don’t need to evacuate villagers because the rumbling slopes so far spewed [only] ash and sand." They would advise on evacuation should the volcano start expelling hot lava, rock grains and sand. The volcano spewed ash again Saturday morning at 5:09 a.m.
Earlier this week the local administration raised the alert level at Mount Bromo to its highest level, calling on locals and visitors to stay off the volcano.

PHILIPPINES - Bicol's chief volcanologist said on Sunday they have been closely watching Mt. Bulusan after four major river channels were filled with lahar from the ash emitted by the explosions that have occurred since Nov. 6. “These eruptions have already emitted an estimated 470,000 cubic meters of ash and sediments and we need to find out what percentage of these volcanic materials remain up there."
Three of the four major channels lead towards villages in Irosin and in Juban towns. A portion of the 470,000 cubic meters of volcanic debris has been washed down by the rains. “Hope for the best, brace for the unexpected and prepare for worst-case scenario."
The next survey the Phivolcs will conduct will seek to determine the volume of volcanic debris that remained deposited up the volcano and the actual volume of those that had been washed downstream. They also hope to determine if new areas are being threatened by mud flows and lahar flash floods. Two recent and consecutive ash explosion events showed a higher percentage of steam compared to ash. Earlier explosions emitted more ash than steam. "More steam means the explosions are coming from much shallow sources but it must not mislead us to think that the volcano is returning to normal because it could mean otherwise." A worst-case scenario could not be discounted and the villages of Bolos, Tinampo, Cogon, Gulang-Gulang, Gabao, Bulawan, Patag and Bagsangan in Irosin town are under threat. Also threatened are villages in Juban town as river channels from Rangas River that connects to the Cadacan River and passing through Barangays Binanwaan and Tinapo are heavily silted.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

FIJI - The tropical depression near Fiji is moving away from the group, but gale warnings remain in force for some parts. The tropical depression is about 280 kilometres southwest of Nadi. Forecasters are expecting it to turn southwestwards away from Fiji. “There is certain parts of Fiji which we are issuing gale warnings for, but on the present track, if it maintains it, it’s going to be moving away from us. We are still issuing gale wind warnings for Kadavu, Vatulele and Beqa. These are the islands to the southern part of Fiji, and that included the Southern Lau on the current track that it’s moving on to.”
No reports of flooding or damage since last night. Reports could come in later this morning as heavy rains and strong winds continue to whip the western division and outer islands. Although nothing much has changed, the Nadi weather office is maintaining its cyclone alert. Flooding of low lying areas are imminent as predicted by the weather office, and areas likely to be affected are the west, the Yasawa’s, Mamanuca Islands, Beqa, Vatulele and surrounding islands. “Although the cyclone has been declared, at this point in time its still a depression and we’re monitoring the situation closely. All EOC’s for Kadavu, including the western division, the southwest coats of Vanua Levu, the Yasawa’s and Mamanuca have been warned. Similarly for the central division, especially flood prone areas have also been warned and response agencies are also monitoring the situation closely.”

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

UNITED KINGDOM - Parts of Britain have experienced RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES, including minus 17 Celsius in Wales, amid warnings of more heavy snow to come. "You are seeing some ridiculously low temperatures - it has been a bit like it is in the middle of Scandinavia." The temperature in Llysdinam near Llandrindod Wells in Wales plunged to minus 17.3C at the weekend - the principality's LOWEST EVER temperature for November and Britain's COLDEST FOR THE MONTH SINCE 1985. Ireland also experienced heavy snow and Dublin airport was disrupted. Parts of Scotland and north-east England have already seen well over 30cm of snow since the start of the cold snap last week, and forecasters say the flurries could reach London in the coming days. The UNUSUAL weather has been caused by high pressure over Greenland and low pressure in the Baltic, forcing cold winds from the north-east across Europe.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

PAKISTAN - In Balochistan, fishermen observed white, slippery hot sand erupting from an area which now turned into a three km wide muddy island. The soft muddy island appeared a few kilometers from the seashore in Hingol area of Balochistan. The island is 90 meters (m) high with a span of approximately three kilometers. Fishermen observed white, slippery hot sand erupting from water, three km away from the beach. Before the upsurge of sludge, fishermen also observed high tides near the coast and several boats were trapped due to the emergence of the island. The island is 30m beneath the water and 60m above the sea level which is a total of 90m in height. Fishermen also registered another island 12 years back, which plunged into the sea after four months.
Amateur video of the event clearly showed eruption of white hot liquid sludge on top of the island which is still ongoing. The area holds three tectonic plates – namely Eurasian, Arabian and Indian plates which are responsible for high seismic activity due to subduction in the Makran area. The Chaman Transverse Fault could also be responsible for the sudden rise of the island at Hingol because the fault is extremely active, moving at a rate of four centimeter yearly. The Chaman Fault is the only physical feature of Pakistan which can be seen from space and it was responsible for the horrifying earthquake of 31 May, 1935 in Quetta. Over 30,000 people died in the quake. An earthquake of 4.1 magnitude on the Richter scale was recorded recently in the Chiltan area due to activity of the Chaman Fault and the series of these events need serious attention. (photo - People can be seen standing on the island.)

**Mysteries are not necessarily miracles.**
Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND

Yesterday -
11/27/10 -
5.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.2 NORTH OF HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.8 NORTH OF HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.1 KAMCHATKA PENINSULA, RUSSIA
5.1 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

11/26/10 -
5.3 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.8 CERAM SEA, INDONESIA
5.3 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.6 SOUTHERN IRAN 2010-11-26 16:00

11/25/10 -
5.1 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.1 TAJIKISTAN
5.0 NEAR COAST OF ECUADOR
5.1 SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS

11/24/10 -
5.0 CENTRAL PERU
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 VANUATU
5.0 VANUATU
5.1 OFFSHORE GUERRERO, MEXICO
5.2 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 BANDA SEA
5.3 GUAM REGION
5.1 GUAM REGION
5.3 GUAM REGION

VOLCANOES -

INDONESIA's Mount Bromo volcano in eastern Java belched hot ash into the air in a low-level eruption on Saturday around 5:40 pm local time. The minor eruption caused no injuries. The Merapi volcano on the island of Java is also still active.

PHILIPPINES - An "explosion-type" earthquake was recorded by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology in Bulusan Volcano. At least 11 volcanic quakes, including the explosive one, were recorded around restive Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon in the last 24 hours.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

FIJI - A gale warning is now in force for some islands. A tropical cyclone alert remains in force for the rest of Fiji and a strong wind warning remains in force for the Fiji group. A tropical depression is currently moving East South East at 20km per hour and is expected to intensify further and possibly turn into a Tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
Close to its center the depression is estimated to have winds with average speeds up to 55km per hour with momentary gusts to 90 km per hour. Damaging gale force winds with average speed of 65 to 75km per hour with momentary gusts to 110 km per hour are expected within 110 to 280 km away from the center. Very rough to high seas with damaging heavy North-Westerly swells are also expected.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

UNUSUAL WEATHER in Britain is being caused by high pressure over Greenland and low pressure in the Baltics, forcing cold winds from the north-east across Europe. The easterly winds show no sign of letting up, with cold weather expected to last until next week at least. Mr King warned: "As we go into Monday, one feature which will become significant is the wind. From Siberia, it will pick up quite significantly from Monday through to Tuesday. It will feel quite bitterly cold." Heavy snow is set to continue to spread across much of the UK today, with north-east England and eastern Scotland bearing the brunt of it overnight. Temperatures are expected to drop below zero across the UK, with minus 7C quite common. Northern Ireland could see snowfall in the afternoon of up to 10cm (3.9in) - resulting in likely travel disruption. Siberian winds from Monday will also make the cold weather feel worse. Up to 40cms (16in) fell in parts of north-east England and Scotland on Saturday - said to be THE MOST WIDESPREAD SNOW AT THIS TIME OF YEAR SINCE 1993. The cold weather has caused much disruption since Thursday.

U.S. - Crazy, extreme weather led up to Thanksgiving. The combination of a massive Arctic outbreak out West, a warm surge in the East and powerful storm in the transition zone was wreaking weather havoc as the Thanksgiving holiday approached. Even Alaska was contending with UNUSUAL WEATHER, as unseasonably mild air bumps up to the Arctic circle. It was warmer Monday in Barrow, AK (33) than Seattle (32). "This storm is ONLY THE SECOND TIME IN MORE THAN 100 YEARS that measurable rainfall was recorded in Fairbanks in the second half of November. The only other November rainfall on record was Nov. 24, 1936, when 0.42 inches of rain fell."
"[Monday's] weather turned wild across sections of the Midwest. Fast-moving thunderstorms raced through the area at dizzying speeds, turning tornadic as they raked across areas east of Rockford, Illinois. The day's RECORD BREAKING WARMTH played a role in super-charging the storms."
"In Wisconsin, THE FIRST NOVEMBER TORNADO IN MORE THAN 39 YEARS - which boasted an EF1 strength rating - struck Walworth County. Another was reported in Union Grove, but has not been confirmed. Only three November tornadoes have hit Wisconsin since 1950 before Monday (two on Nov. 15, 1960, and one on Nov. 1, 1971)."
"The 2 inches of snow that fell [in Seattle] by 5 p.m. Monday at the airport was A RECORD for Nov. 22, besting the previous mark of 1.5 inches. Records there have been kept since 1945."
TEXAS - RECORD-BREAKING COLD at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport November 27. Almost all of the Austin area had freezing temperatures overnight and Austin-Bergstrom International Airport set a new record when it reached 22 degrees there. The old record for cold temperatures at ABIA on Nov. 27th was 28 degrees in 1975. The next cold front expected in Central Texas may come through Monday night. “Just as fast as we start to warm up, it’ll start to cool down again.”
CALIFORNIA - In Salinas, a Thanksgiving Day cold snap BROKE A 30-YEAR COLD-TEMPERATURE RECORD. The city was among several across California to either break or tie cold-weather records. Some had stood for more than a century.
Salinas recorded an overnight low of 29 degrees Thursday. The previous record of 34 degrees was in 1980. Wednesday's low of 30 degrees at the Salinas Municipal Airport ALSO SET A RECORD, breaking the 2006 mark of 32 degrees. Salinas nearly saw a third consecutive record-breaking day Friday. Its low temperature of 36 degrees was just shy of 1966's record of 34 degrees.
Salinas wasn't alone in the cold spell in the last couple of days. San Francisco's low of 42 degrees on Thursday TIED A RECORD SET BACK IN 1892. Across the bay in Oakland, 36-degree daytime temperatures SHATTERED THE OLD RECORD of 42. The mercury in Los Angeles dropped to 42, TYING A 1946 RECORD. Stockton saw a RECORD LOW temperature of 27 degrees Thursday morning, while Sacramento tied a record low of 30. Subfreezing temperatures in California's Central Valley citrus growing region threatened to damage the billion-dollar crop. But growers working through the night used warm water and wind machines to keep the cold at bay.

RUSSIA - A powerful snow cyclone is raging in the Primorsky Territory and Sakhalin with a storm in the north of the Sea of Japan. The wind is up to 20 metres a second, and waves are 2.5-3.5 metres high. A storm warning is sent to ships working in the northern region of the Sea of Japan, where visibility is within 900 metres at present. The Primorsky Territory's largest ports of Vladivostok and Nakhodka are veiled with white haze of snowstorms. The wind is up to 22 metres a second on the coast. The cyclone will remain on Sakhalin and Primorye for two days and then leave for the central part of the Sea of Okhotsk, cross the Kuriles and Kamchatka and raise a storm in the Bering Sea. Then, cold air from Yakutia will move to Sakhalin, lowering the temperature on the island's valleys to 25 degrees below zero. Cyclones are usual for Sakhalin. Five to six come in the region over a winter, covering the island with a snow blanket as thick as up to two metres.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

**Just the quakes today - no update Friday.
HAPPY THANKSGIVING!**


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.1 TAJIKISTAN
5.0 NEAR COAST OF ECUADOR
5.1 SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS

Yesterday -
11/24/10 -
5.0 CENTRAL PERU
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 VANUATU
5.0 VANUATU
5.1 OFFSHORE GUERRERO, MEXICO
5.2 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 BANDA SEA
5.3 GUAM REGION
5.1 GUAM REGION
5.3 GUAM REGION

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

**Often the hands will solve a mystery
that the intellect has struggled with in vain.**
Carl Gustav Jung

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.3 GUAM REGION

Yesterday -
11/23/10 -
5.0 WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
5.2 TONGA REGION
5.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.1 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND
6.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.

PANAMA - Geologists have uncovered 1,400 years of fault ruptures near the Panama Canal, revealing that two large faults put the area at risk for serious damage. The original canal was built from 1904 to 1914 and is being upgraded in order to support the much larger ships and cargo loads of today. Construction is expected to be finished by 2014. The threat comes from the Limon and Pedro Miguel faults in Central Panama. The faults have ruptured both independently and together in the past. "There was a general perception before this (study) that there weren't any earthquakes." This was despite the fact there was a magnitude 7.9 quake in 1882, which also created a tsunami. "They have historical earthquakes (but) that just wasn't part of the thoughts of engineers."
Geologically speaking, there is every reason to expect earthquakes in Panama, since the land there was created by the ongoing collision of tectonic plates. The real worry for seismologists is Panama City and its lake, Lago Gatun, which is held back by two out-dated dams. "There have been hints at this (quake history and threat) but we hadn't a comprehensive picture. I'm quite honestly much more concerned about Panama City. It is a very large fault and has a potential for a very large earthquake." Most of Panama City's 1.2 million citizens live in homes on steep hillsides made of heavy blocks that could easily collapse in a strong earthquake. In addition, the lake, Lago Gatun, supplies water to the locks that make the canal function. "The real concern is if you breach one of the dams and drain the lake, it would take 10 years to refill it. So it's not just a matter of repairing. This would ruin Panama's economy."

VOLCANOES -

ECUADOR - A sudden eruption of the Tungurahua volcano in the Ecuadorian Andes sent a column of ash more than 7 kilometers (4.3 miles) into the sky. The eruption occurred at 10:35 p.m. Monday and the incandescent material "shot into the air and then descended onto the slopes of the volcano." The powerful eruption was followed by smaller ones and reports have come in of ash and pebbles falling on Choglontus and other villages west of the volcano. The eruption was soundless and was perceived as an earthquake. "The column of ash from the first eruption was vertical and flashes of light could be seen inside it. For several weeks there have been the seismic phenomena of rocks breaking up and the movement of fluids that have not been very powerful but showed internal activity." Tungurahua began erupting in 1999 and since then has alternated periods of great activity with spaces of relative calm.

Indonesia raises alert level at Mount Bromo to highest level - Indonesia has raised the alert level at one of its dozens of volcanos to its highest level, telling villagers and tourists to stay off the rumbling slopes. Mount Bromo typically erupts once a year but - unlike nearby Mount Merapi - rarely spits debris and hot gas far from the crater and nearby towns are not considered to be in harm's way. The government decided to raise Bromo's danger level after it started shooting ash into the air. A bigger blast could still be on the way. Bromo is 170 miles (275 kilometers) east of Merapi, which in the past month has unleashed a series of powerful eruptions that have left more than 300 people dead.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

INDIA - The southern parts of India have been experiencing heavy rains in the past two months under the influence of a trough of low pressure in Bay of Bengal and vigorous north east monsoon. Cyclone ‘Jal’ which hit the country in October-November has left a massive trail of destruction in coastal Karnataka and Andrapradesh. The heavy rains which lashed over many districts of coastal districts of Karnataka and other interior parts due to the effect of Jal Cyclone has resulted in loss of lives, damage to houses, roads and caused extensive damage to standing crops. At 15 districts of the state the farmers are having a tough time to come to terms with the destruction caused by UNUSUAL RAINS. Farmers had expected a fairly good crop and it was expected that the prices of food grains, which have reached sky high leading to spiraling inflation, would drop considerably after the harvest.
However, ‘Jal’ cyclone has brought nothing but destruction, distress and despair to the farmers who are unable to come to terms with the havoc caused by unexpected rains. Crops like paddy, maize, cotton, sugarcane, onions and many other crops were destroyed. The unseasonal rains have hit coffee growing belts of Karnataka such as Chikmagalur, Hassan and Kodagu, greatly affecting coffee output. Normal life has been thrown out of gear in many parts of the state as electricity, communication, transport were affected due to the incessant rains. Bangalore city had a RECORD RAINFALL of 62 cm rain last week, said to be THE HEAVIEST THE CITY HAS EXPERIENCED IN A SINGLE DAY IN NOVEMBER IN THE LAST TWO DECADES. Though it has rained in November previously also, it NEVER RAINED FOR SUCH A LONG DURATION OR CAUSED SUCH HAVOC. The meteorological department of the state believes that these rains cannot be termed as unseasonal. “North East monsoon usually brings rain to Tamil Nadu and eastern and southern districts of Karnataka. But the North East monsoon has been a trifle late this year and the cyclonic effect resulting from depression in the Bay of Bengal has caused massive rains in the state. The rains are expected to recede within a week”.
The rain has also caused loss to vegetable crops including beans, tomato, chilly, potato and coffee. The prices of vegetables, flowers and other consumer items like garlic, coriander leaves, fresh green vegetables have already reached sky high and the real impact of the trail of destruction will be felt in the next one or two months. Root crops like ginger, carrot, potato etc., are rotten due to excessive rains. One only hopes situation would come back to normalcy soon.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Sorry no update Monday, icing messed with the phone line.

**Mystery is at the heart of creativity.
That, and surprise.*”
Julia Cameron

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
11//22/10 -
5.7 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.2 VANUATU
5.2 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

11/21/10 -
5.6 TAIWAN
5.0 EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS
5.9 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

VOLCANOES -

INDONESIA - On Sunday and Monday, Mt Merapi spewed more hot pyroclastic clouds after four days of not erupting any superheated ashes. The hot ash is a signal of on-going eruption on Mt Merapi. As a result, the red alert status will not be removed. The pyroclastic clouds took place on Sunday, November 21, starting at 5.23 pm, preceded by tectonic earthquakes. A series of hot clouds occurred until 6.45 pm. Monday, the hot clouds were expelled into the air twice. However, the exact distance of the spewed hot clouds have yet to be measured due to thick clouds which covered the volcano. The danger zone remains at 15 kilometers for Sleman, 10 kilometers for Magelang, 5 kilometers for Boyolali and 10 kilometers for Klaten. The death toll from Mt Merapi has climbed to 304.

PHILIPPINES - The municipal council in Sorsogon has approved the declaration of a state of calamity amid a series of ash ejections from Bulusan Volcano and threats of pyroclastic flows into the rivers of the municipality of Irosin. The ash explosions of Bulusan Volcano have already affected Barangays (villages) Cogon, Monbon, Tinampo, Bolos, Gulang-Gulang, Bagsangan, Mapaso and Gabao and the rivers of Patag and Cadac-an in this town. Irosin is one of the six towns surrounding the volcano. Irosin was being threatened by the continued and unpredictable volcanic eruptions, prompting the local government to re-evaluate and strengthen its disaster-preparedness plans to protect lives and properties, establish a coping mechanism for the affected families during and after the calamity, and provide effective emergency response and management system. Town officials “would rather be OA (over acting), if only to ensure that their residents are safe from lahar flow or eventual flow of pyroclastic materials from the volcano.”
To date, the municipal health unit reported 187 cases of acute respiratory disorders, gastrointestinal diseases and acute gastroentiritis treated by health personnel. These were particularly in the areas of Cogon, Monbon and Tinampo. Most of the victims were elderly and children. On Sunday morning, Bulusan Volcano again belched a grayish steam and ash column, sending residents to safe shelters in Irosin. Areas with ashfall were Barangays Monbon, Bolos, Cogon, Gulang-Gulang and Buraburan in Irosin, from where more than 500 families have been evacuated. Ashfall also affected Barangay Añog in Juban amd Barangay Puting-Sapa where children were the first to be evacuated. Barangay Cogon in Irosin evacuated as tiny rocks fell and they observed ashes that were two inches thick. The ash explosion, recorded at 7:22 a.m., reached a height of about two kilometers above the crater rim and drifted in the southwest direction. The ash column was accompanied by a rumbling sound and reflected an explosion-type earthquake lasting for 9 minutes and 30 seconds. Prior to the ash ejection, the Bulusan seismic network detected a total of 12 volcanic earthquakes. The Sunday morning ash explosion, which was the seventh since Bulusan first spewed ash two weeks ago, was THE STRONGEST IN TERMS OF THE ASH COLUMN'S HEIGHT. The ashfall on Sunday also reached as far as Bulan town, which is around 15 kilometers from the summit compared with the earlier fallouts that reached only as far as 6-9 kilometers. The sky was very dark. Zero visibility was observed in Juban and Irosin.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

U.S. Midwest - Severe thunderstorms moved through southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois Monday, bringing reports of tornado touchdowns and significant damage. "We're surprised to by a storm of this magnitude: Typically, we don't see tornadoes in late November."
At least three children in Caledonia, Illinois, about 15 miles northwest of Rockford, were injured when the bus in which they were riding rolled over. The worst of the storm hit around 3 p.m. (4 p.m. ET), knocking down power lines along a country road and hitting the village of Caledonia especially hard. Heavy winds destroyed the Caledonia town hall and one home, damaged another three homes and knocked out power to more than 500 residents. One business was "almost completely destroyed" and a damaged grain silo was leaking grain. Heavy winds Monday afternoon also struck the Wisconsin town of Union Grove, about 30 miles south of Milwaukee. Some 36 residents of an assisted-living facility there had to be moved after heavy winds caused structural damage and forced the facility to rely on generator power. The storm also blew the roof off a building onto a nearby residence and damaged Union Grove's sewage treatment plant. The winds also peeled shingles from houses and downed power lines. Heavy winds overturned several semi-trucks, caused "numerous gas leaks," and "we have multiple buildings that aren't there any more." Additionally, at least two homes were also damaged by possible tornadoes near Walworth, Wisconsin. Another twister touched down in Lawrence, Illinois, which like Rockford, is located northwest of Chicago.
In addition to tornado-like winds, the storm at times produced hail up to 2 inches in diameter, wind gusts up to 75 mph and dangerous cloud-to-cloud lightning. The inclement weather wreaked havoc with travel. The worst of the storm appeared to have passed by 8 p.m. (9 p.m. ET), though thunderstorms prompted the service to warn of a "severe weather threat" for much of central Illinois. In addition, "significant snow" was forecast beginning Monday night and into Wednesday for much of north central and central Wisconsin.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Not your imagination; study says hurricane seasons are getting longer - There was some concern early last week that the tropics were becoming active once again. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center were tracking a strong disturbance in the southern Caribbean Sea. By the middle of the week, however, dry air and upper level wind shear ripped the potential troublemaker apart, delaying, at least for now, the development of Tropical Storm Virginie.
Given how busy the 2010 hurricane season has been and how warm sea surface temperatures are in the Caribbean, it seems very possible that at least one more named storm may form this year. But then late-season storms seem to be the norm in recent years. November of 2008, for example, produced the second strongest November hurricane on record. In 2007 and 2005, there were VERY RARE storms in December. And tropical storms seem to be forming earlier in the season, too. The 2008 season saw four named storms in July while 2003 featured the first tropical storm ever in April.
All of this leads to a very unsettling question: “is hurricane season getting longer?” The answer is yes, there is an “apparent tendency toward more early and late-season storms.” Officially, the Atlantic Basin hurricane season runs for six long months, from June 1 through Nov. 30. Still, most of the action, especially the large, powerful storms we worry so much about, form during a six-week period stretching from middle August to the beginning of October. Storms in June and November are rare. If they do form during these months, the tropical cyclones tend to be weak and rarely cause much of a ruckus. But the new study found that we would likely see more activity in June and November in coming hurricane seasons. The hurricane seasons for both the period 1950 to present and 1980 to present got longer by five to 10 days per decade. The reason for longer hurricane seasons likely is warmer sea surface temperatures. This hurricane season, for example, saw THE WARMEST WATER TEMPERATURE IN HISTORY in the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
When Hurricane Tomas skirted past Haiti recently, it was the fourth straight year with a hurricane in the month of November, the FIRST TIME IN RECORDED HISTORY that has ever occurred. November hurricanes may become the norm. One scientist suggested that there might be a 40- to 80-day increase in hurricane season by the end of the century.

** The true mystery of the world is the visible, not the invisible.**
Oscar Wilde

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.7 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

Yesterday -
11/20/10 -
Back in time
5.1 TONGA
5.2 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.3 VANUATU
5.2 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE

11/19/10 -
5.6 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 TONGA
5.2 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION

VOLCANOES -

INDONESIA - Mount Anak Krakatau saw 72 eruptions on Thursday, one eruption more compared to the previous day which saw 71. The status is still at level II or caution status. (The statuses for volcanos are: normal, caution, alert and danger.)

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Extreme Weather: EF-1 Tornadoes struck Maryland and New York on Wednesday. EF-1 tornado in Ghent, NY on 11-17-10 cut a 2 mile path of destruction at 5:37AM ET. A very potent weather system trekked across portions of the eastern United States on late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. Atmospheric conditions were "just right" for a "SPRING-LIKE" severe weather outbreak.
With a near-perfect combination of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico, a strong upper level Low, wind shear and cool, dry air from the Midwest; several squall lines developed from North Carolina into New York. While most people were asleep, the storm system left a trail of destruction in its path.
A whopping total of 128 wind damage reports have been logged by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma for November 16, 2010. Damage reports have been logged from northern Alabama all the way to central New York state. Particularly hard hit areas was the Parkville section of greater Baltimore, Maryland and the town of Ghent, New York on early Wednesday morning.

STRANGE ANIMAL BEHAVIOR -

Pink pelicans in Russia - Russia's been having a RECORD-BREAKING AUTUMN weather-wise, with temperatures in Altai, in southwestern Siberia, remaining as high as 41° Fahrenheit. And it looks like the balmy weather has attracted some new residents: on Tuesday, a flock of seven African pink pelicans landed in the village of Suslovo. The birds, which had spend the summer in Kazakhstan, should have been flying south to winter in Africa. But that's where global warming stepped in. Confused by the UNNATURALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES to the north, the pelicans, all barely a year old, flew in the wrong direction.
Of the seven birds, four were captured by locals, and are currently being housed at a zoo in the nearby city of Barnaul. They will most likely be kept there for the winter out of fear for their safety. The three pelicans that were not captured flew away, and have not been seen since.
"It can't be denied that climate change is the culprit in this story- experts say that Russia is particularly exposed to the impact of global warming. The recent heatwave that drew the pelican flock to Siberia also killed off 25 million acres of crops, prompting President Dmitri Medvedev to call the event a "wake up call" to the threat of climate change. Add a group of heat-addled pelicans to a looming agricultural disaster, and hopefully the rest of the country will come to the same realization."

SPACE WEATHER -

Asteroid Impact Early Warning System Unveiled - Astronomer reveals plans for a network of telescopes that could give up to three weeks' warning of a city-destroying impact.
At about 3am on 8 October last year, an asteroid the size of a small house smashed into the Earth's atmosphere over an isolated part of Indonesia. The asteroid disintegrated in the atmosphere causing a 50 kiloton explosion, about four times the size of the atomic bomb used to destroy Hiroshima. No one was injured in blast but the incident highlights the threat that planet faces from near Earth asteroids. Astronomers expect a strike like this once every 2-12 years. And the US congress has given NASA the task of sweeping the skies to identify anything heading our way. So far NASA has looked for objects of a kilometre or more in size and determined that none of these is on track to hit Earth in the foreseeable future. But what of smaller objects? Various estimates show that an impact with an asteroid just 50 metres across would cause some 30,000 deaths (compared with 50 million deaths from an impact with a 1 kilometre-sized object).
This raises two important questions. The first, is how best can astronomers monitor the skies for these smaller objects? The second, is what to do should we find something heading our way? The goal of finding 90 per cent of city-destroying asteroids in time to deflect them is extremely challenging. A scientist says a more realistic target is to evacuate the area under threat. And for that we'll need just three week's notice. Given these constraints, he believes he can do the job with an array of eight 25cm aperture telescopes with a wide field of view that simultaneously scan the visible sky twice a night. He calls this early warning system the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System or ATLAS. A more difficult question is whether three weeks is long enough to evacuate a city that may be home to several million people. It may be only a matter of time before we are forced to try.

HEALTH THREATS -

Protests are rattling Haiti as cholera cases near 50,000.

Friday, November 19, 2010

MORE MYSTERY BOOMS IN NORTH CAROLINA - 11/17/10 - Residents are once again reporting strange, loud noises that shake their homes. Several people in the Supply and Holden Beach area in Brunswick County said they heard two loud "booms" around 11:00 Wednesday morning. One said the racket woke her up and vibration from the booms knocked items off of her furniture and TV. Some call the noises "Seneca guns," but no one seems to have a solid explanation for why they happen. Reasoning for the booms range from military practice to earthquakes below the ocean surface. The noises have been startling residents along the Carolina coast for years.
Residents report boom in Horry County - A Little River resident was at his home when he felt a mysterious boom Wednesday morning. “It was nothing subtle about it. I felt the [four-story] building shake. It felt more from the ground up, almost like an explosion under you, almost as if a plane hit the side of the building...To have the earth and land move in the amount of distance it did without an explanation is crazy and kind of strange.” When he called 911 to report the incident, which happened around 11 a.m. Wednesday, he said he was told that similar calls had come in from as far south as North Myrtle Beach, but they could not verify where it was coming from. Similar to booms reported earlier this month in Brunswick County, but no one seems to know what is causing it. If it was an earthquake, the director of Horry County Emergency Management said he would have received such reports, but he hasn’t.

**The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious.
It is the source of all true art and science.**
Albert Einstein

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.2 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION

Yesterday -
11/18/10 -
5.1 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 FLORES SEA
5.1 BANDA SEA
5.1 NEAR COAST OF SOUTHERN PERU

Scientists find new seismic fault in Rocky Mountains - The Rocky Mountains extend from British Columbia south to the US state of New Mexico. Scientists have mapped a new, active seismic fault in the Rocky Mountains in the US state of Idaho capable of unleashing a 7.5 magnitude earthquake. A university official has warned the fault could release a damaging earthquake within the next few decades. The 40-mile fracture runs close to the small town of Stanley, a community with roughly 100 year-round residents. A 7.5 tremor is capable of devastating areas along a fault. If a quake did occur, shaking would extend to the state capital of Boise.
Scientists believe two earthquakes have taken place along the fault in the past 10,000 years, with one occurring 7,000 years ago and the other 4,000 years ago. This information has led researchers to believe significant seismic activity takes place in the region every several thousand years. The Northern Rocky Mountain region in Idaho, Wyoming and Western Montana is a seismically-heavy area capable of producing some very large earthquakes. "Since we don't know when the next earthquake will occur, we simply need to prepare for it."

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.


EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Dust Storm off Alaska - Dust storms generally call to mind places like the Sahara Desert or the Gobi Desert, but dust storms occur at high latitudes as well. One such storm left streamers over the Gulf of Alaska in mid-November. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer on NASA’s Terra satellite captured an image on November 17, 2010. Thin plumes of beige dust blow off the Alaskan coast toward the south-southwest. Farther to the south, lines of clouds mimic the shape and direction of the dust plumes, and even cast shadows on them. The dust plumes and clouds were likely shaped by the same winds. Malaspina is just one of many glaciers fringing the Alaskan coastline. As glaciers grind over rocks, they pulverize some of the rock into glacial flour. Melt water percolating through glaciers often deposits glacial flour in mud plains. When the plains dry out, winds sometimes carry dust particles aloft. (satellite photo)

Scientists warn to expect wilder weather - The number of RECORD-BREAKING HOT DAYS is twice as high as the RECORD COLD days. "Heat records are outpacing cold records at a factor of two to one now. That number is expected to increase to 20 to one by late this century if we continue on the course that we are on with fossil fuel burning." Some events, such as the 2003 European heat wave which killed about 35,000 people and this year's heat wave in Moscow would be "extremely unlikely to happen in the absence of climate change."
A hurricane expert said the fiercest storms are already showing an uptick in frequency, and more powerful hurricanes lie ahead. "If you just look at the Atlantic in the last 10 years, we have experienced three times as many Category 5 hurricanes as have occurred in previous history on a relative basis. We now have consensus statements coming out from the scientists and indeed a lot of regional research is pointing all in the same direction. There is nothing going in the other direction. And that is the very intense hurricanes, the very intense (Category) fours and fives are going to increase and they could be doubling or tripling."
More rain and drought in the coming years is also predicted. "As the earth warms up the atmosphere can hold more water, if there is more water available there will be more rain. Paradoxically of course there is as a result of that more drought because the land dries out quicker." The reduction of sea ice in the Arctic will have a growing impact on temperatures in the rest of the world. "What we have seen is a rather pronounced reduction in the extent of sea ice. At the end of summer now we have 40 per cent less sea ice than we had say during the 1970s. We are losing that insulator so what we are seeing now are big fluxes in heat from the ocean to the atmosphere. Since everything is connected together in the climate system what happens up there can influence what happens down here and I am talking about in the middle latitudes."
The other thing that the scientists said is changing, along with climate, is how they confront skeptics who question the reality of climate change and the extent of humans' role in causing it. "There are still many of us who like to sit in our office or go into the field and just do our science and not enter into the fray, but I think that is changing. We have to become more involved. We have to become better communicators. Scientists are not always good communicators of the issues but this is part of a learning curve and we have got to face that."

SPACE WEATHER -

For the second time in less than a week, a comet is diving toward the sun. It's no coincidence that this comet is following the same path as its predecessor on Nov. 14th. They are both fragments of a single giant comet that broke apart about 2000 years ago. Astronomers call them "Kruetz sungrazers" after the 19th century German researcher, Heinrich Kreutz, who studied them in detail. "November is one of the best months to discover Kreutz comets. It's because the field of view of the SOHO coronagraph covers a larger-than-usual portion of the Kreutz track. December, May, and June are good, too." With SOHO staring at just the right patch of sky, more sungrazers are probably in the offing. First, however, this one has a date with destiny, and it probably won't survive. Solar heating is expected to obliterate the icy sundiver later today or tomorrow.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Watery future for coastal cities - Thinking of buying a condominium in one of the hospitable, thriving capitals of sunny Southeast Asia? You might check out their flood prevention plans beforehand. While the debate over global warming continues, Southeast Asia’s coastal capitals have been facing the reality of extreme weather and its soggy companion, water. In 2007, flooding in Jakarta inundated much of Indonesia’s capital, killing 57 people, displacing 450,000 and causing an estimated $695 million in damage. Tropical storm Ketsana dumped record rainfall on Manila in September, 2009. It submerged 80 percent of the metropolis, killed about 400, and displaced up to 300,000 people. Last month, Bangkok just missed a potentially lethal combination of a swollen Chao Phraya River, high tides in the Gulf of Thailand, and heavy rain. It didn’t rain. “They were just lucky. If there had been heavy rain, the whole city would have been flooded.’’ Even the efficient city-state of Singapore has had its water woes. The shopping area of Orchard Road was flooded in June after unusually heavy rainfall, causing millions of dollars of damage to businesses and some red faces among city Mandarins. If even Singapore can’t cope with abnormal weather, what hope for the rest of the region, especially in the context of potentially rising sea levels?
The recent disasters have provided ample incentive for the region’s coastal cities to make preparations for a watery future with or without global warming. Bangkok plans to spend $533 million to construct four giant drainage tunnels under the city to combat its perennial flooding problems. The tunnels, 5 meters wide and up to 13.5 kilometers long, promise to more than double the city’s current drainage capacity when completed in five years. “This year’s rainy season has made it obvious that we need the tunnels." Since the last devastating floods of 1995, the city has also built a 72-kilometer-long embankment along the Chao Phraya to keep the river waters out.
Singapore has spent $176 million on a 350-meter-long dam to create the first freshwater reservoir in the heart of the city, which opened in November, 2008. The catchment area of 10,000 hectares, one-sixth the size of Singapore, helps to keep seawater out and to control floods. Jakarta in 2008 started dredging the city’s 13 rivers and expanding its canal network with the target of reducing floods by 40 percent by 2011 and 75 percent by 2016. In January, it completed the 23.5-kilometer Eastern Flood Canal. Ho Chi Minh City has started construction of a 33-kilometer-long dike and sluice system to keep sea water from inundating the city. The project will cost an estimated $650 million. Manila, which sits in the pathway of Pacific typhoons and is deemed one of the most vulnerable cities to storm surges, has done remarkably little to prepare for the next deluge despite a flurry of recommendations. “Few, if any, objective experts or knowledgeable observers believe that the Philippine government is capable of handling or mitigating any major disaster that impacts on Manila."
One immediate challenge all these coastal cities share is land subsidence, caused by excessive use of groundwater and overbuilding; in other words, a lack of law enforcement and zoning. Jakarta sank about 1.5 meters over the past 20 years, parts of Manila are sinking at 3 to 17 centimeters per annum and Bangkok, whose subsidence peaked at 10 centimeters a year in the 1990s, is expected to sink between 5 and 30 centimeters by 2050.

**If you say that money makes you miserable,
you’d be lying through your back teeth.
I used to think about money all the time when I never had it
and now that I do, I don’t.**
Irvine Welsh

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.1 BANDA SEA
5.0 NEAR COAST OF SOUTHERN PERU

Yesterday -
11/17/10 -
5.6 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA
5.2 ASCENSION ISLAND REGION
5.2 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -

ICELAND - The volcano that threw European aviation into chaos last April and May had sat quietly for 200 years. Yet volcanologists knew weeks before Eyjafjallajökull actually erupted that something big was going on inside the mountain. It had experienced 18 years of intermittent volcanic unrest but things really started to change by late summer 2009, according to a comprehensive new analysis of what happened deep under Eyjafjallajökull.
Scientists from Iceland, Sweden and the Netherlands have spent months pouring over older records and also data from 2009 and 2010 prior to the eruption. They believe they can now tell the full story of how Eyjafjallajökull woke from centuries of slumber to cause the biggest disruption to European air transport since the second World War.
“If you watch a volcano for decades you can tell when it is getting restless". Parts of the dormant volcano began to swell, a sure sign that liquid rock or magma was percolating into chambers under the mountain. Its sides swelled by more than five millimetres per day from early March 2010, finally ballooning out 15 centimetres before the first eruption occurred on March 20th. The scientists were puzzled because Eyjafjallajökull did not then begin to shrink back down as the magma flowed, something most volcanos do. The routine eruption stopped flowing on April 12th but then just two days later the second eruption hit, the one that would cripple European air travel. “The second eruption occurred within the ice-capped caldera [central crater] of the volcano, explosively amplified by magma-ice interaction."
Water from the snow flashed to steam and gas escaped from bubbles in the magma to blast an ash plume high into the atmosphere. Eyjafjallajökull belched out an estimated 250 million cubic metres of ash and pumice up to nine kilometres high. The eruption certainly set no records but the UNUSUAL weather conditions at the time sent the ash first out across Northern Europe and then back across to cover Central Europe, Britain and Ireland. The ash cloud ebbed and flowed during the next month, at times reaching as far south as Italy, Spain and Portugal.
By May 21st it was all over, the eruption ceased and the ash cloud blew away on the wind. Flights returned to normal and for most of us the cloud became a distant memory.
Eyjafjallajökull is currently quiet but not silent. A report on June 23rd noted occasional small ash clouds venting from the mountain that last for some minutes before ceasing. The scientists have also been left to ponder the volcano’s UNUSUAL behaviour in not shrinking quickly during its eruption. They believe this could be because only small amounts of magma built up in chambers within the mountain and were replenished from deeper down. The bigger question from a European perspective is what happens next? “Clear signs of volcanic unrest over years may indicate the reawakening of such volcanoes, whereas immediate short-term eruption precursors may be subtle and difficult to detect."

PHILIPPINES - Bulusan Volcano in Southern Luzon spewed ash yesterday, 10 days after it started to show signs of activity. The agency recorded the explosion at 11:47 p.m. that lasted four and a half minutes. The status of the volcano remains at alert level 1, the lowest of four alert levels characterized by "volcanic unrest." Alert level 4 means "hazardous eruptions" are taking place. Residents in nearby areas have been warned of lahar and ash fall, while civil aviation authorities were told to warn pilots against flying close to the volcano crater. 2,712 families have been affected by the ash fall in 18 barangays in the towns of Casiguran, Juban and Irosin, with 62 families evacuated Sunday.

INDONESIA -Thousands of villagers returned to ash-covered homes along the slopes of Indonesia's most volatile volcano yesterday after the government said some areas well away from the fiery crater appeared out of danger from another eruption. The notoriously unpredictable volcano in the heart of Java island roared back to life on October 26th, killing more than 259 people in a series of eruptions. Merapi was still rumbling and spewing searing ash and debris yesterday but activity has dropped sharply in recent days. After spending nearly three weeks in crowded emergency camps, the villagers headed up Mount Merapi loaded down with mats, blankets and clothes to find almost everything they had was gone. 'Their houses are covered in thick ash; their crops can't be harvested. We need to find some way to help them. Many don't have anything to eat.' (satellite image)

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

HEALTH THREATS -

Cholera Death Toll Could Reach That of the Haiti Earthquake - "This is something that is going to require heavy duty attention." Haiti's cholera death count jumped over the 1,000 mark. 16,000 are sick. The outbreak was centered in the agricultural area between Port au Prince in the South and Cap-Haitian in the North. A major worry is some cases have appeared in Port au Prince where thousands upon thousands of Haitian are living in tents mired by unsanitary conditions. If cholera gets out of control it could produce a death toll that might rival the number that died during the January Port au Prince earthquake that killed 230,000. That's a scary thought, but with a thousand plus deaths in three weeks, one can see the worry.
Cholera has been found in every Haitian province. Prior to this, disease experts say that Haiti has never had a cholera outbreak. The dynamics of a cholera outbreak are simple, and fit Haiti to a tee. Standing water, zero sanitation facilities, thousands huddled in tents post-earthquake. World health officials are prepared for a long haul in Haiti. Cholera can linger for years, especially if sanitation is not improved and water supplies secured.
Earthquake, Hurricane Tomas, now Cholera - it is a never ending calamity for a country that seems to never get a break.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Extreme weather around the world - Torrential downpours hit Sri Lanka on Wednesday last week, triggering flash floods which left two dead and damaged 261 homes. The capital, Colombo saw its HEAVIEST RAIN IN 18 YEARS, with more than 440mm falling in 24 hours, leaving much of the city under water. The floods, which disrupted electricity supplies, closed schools and forced hundreds of thousands of people from their homes, were attributed to an UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC BELT.
Floods also hit south-western parts of Nova Scotia in Canada last week following days of heavy downpours which dumped 250mm of rain across parts of the province. The flood waters swamped homes, forcing the evacuation of 120 people, and washed away a 20m bridge over the Tusket river on Tuesday.
Meanwhile much of north-east China suffered travel disruption owing to blizzard conditions. The snow, which began late last Thursday, led to flight delays in and out of Taiping International Airport and prompted the closure of all five major highways in Heilongjiang province. The icy roads caused a pile-up involving 43 cars, injuring two people.
In contrast, Russia was enjoying unseasonable warmth last week. The mercury in the capital topped out at 14.5C on Thursday, a new RECORD FOR NOVEMBER, and more than 13C above the average maximum temperature for the month.

**Opportunity comes but does not linger.**
Nepali proverb

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
11/16/10 -
5.9 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.9 BANDA SEA
5.3 CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO REGION
5.8 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA


VOLCANOES -

CHINA - Scientists in China say that the Tianchi volcano in Changbai Mountain in Jilin Province, which sits near China's border with North Korea, is not likely to erupt anytime soon as some believe. However, that's not stopping the public from panicking about the potential of ash and fire spilling into their homes. Some residents in the area believe unsubstantiated claims that the volcano would erupt anytime in the next few years. A woman who lives in Baishan, Northeast China's Jilin Province sold her clothing shop and is planning to move out from the city for fear of an eruption. Rumors have been thrown around for years but people became more panicky after a South Korean expert predicted publicly that it could erupt within a few years. "We don't know whom we should trust. What we can do is to pray the eruption won't happen."
Yun Sung-whyo, a geology professor in South Korea, made his prediction on June 18 that the volcano "might erupt between 2014 and 2015. Chinese experts later dismissed the claim. Monitoring data show the volcano is stable and there were no signs of an imminent eruption. The Tianchi volcano is considered one of the most dangerous volcanoes on the Chinese mainland with a potential for eruption. In addition, 2 billion cubic meters of water that sits at the top of the volcano could prove more dangerous during an eruption. The last time the volcano erupted was in 1903. South Korea's Ministry of Unification said Tuesday that it was considering setting up a special team to investigate the possibility of the mountain's eruption in order to make a contingency plan.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

MYANMAR - Cyclone Giri hits rice harvest in Rakhine State in western Myanmar. The cyclone that struck the western coast of Myanmar at the end of October wiped out a large portion of the region’s expected annual rice harvest, placing some 260,000 people at risk of hunger. “The timing of the cyclone was very unlucky. The cyclone hit right at the moment [before the harvest] when farmers empty their coffers and put everything into the crops. If their houses and dwellings were seriously damaged, then whatever seeds they had stored as back-up have now also been ruined.”
The cyclone destroyed more than 97,125 hectares of farmland or almost half the rice fields in hardest-hit Rakhine State in the west, where rice is the staple food. Eight million hectares nationwide are used to grow rice. 200,000 will be in need of food assistance for the next three months in the four most severely affected townships of Rakhine state: Myebon, Kyaukpyu, Pauktaw and Minbya. Severe acute malnutrition in young children can rapidly increase without fast action, warned the UN Children’s Fund, which aims to distribute vitamins and micronutrient sprinkles to 15,000 children under five. (map)

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Mexico hotel blast caused by swamp gas - An explosion that killed five Canadian tourists and two workers on Sunday at a hotel on Mexico's Caribbean coast was caused by a build-up of gas from a nearby swamp. The blast hurled the floor of the hotel in Playa del Carmen through the ceiling and blew out windows. Nine people remain in hospital.
Initial investigations into the blast at the Grand Riviera Princess hotel suggest gas that exploded beneath the building was from a nearby swamp. "The report suggests an accumulation of gases produced by decomposing organic material in the subsoil, and this gas produced the explosion." The 676-room resort sits on a concrete platform on a swampy area near the beach - located in a region known as the Maya Riviera, about 90km (55 miles) from Cancun. Roughly 50-70% of those staying at the resort were Canadian. "Everyone said their hotel room shook. The glass at neighbouring restaurants all cracked and blew out. The tiki hut that was in the area, that was on fire." The blast left a crater in the ground about 1m (3.3ft) deep.

**The only way to comprehend
what mathematicians mean by infinity
is to contemplate the extent of human stupidity.**
Voltaire


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
6.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA

Yesterday -
11/15/10 -
5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA
5.2 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN

VOLCANOES -

INDONESIA - Child of Krakatoa Volcano Active Every Five Minutes. Uninterrupted activity from Child of Krakatau volcano is causing continuous tremors. “There is a tremor every five minutes." The quake activities occur 600-900 times a day on average. There were a total of 811 quakes Sunday. The Child of Krakatau is still on level II alert. This is not harmful as long as the community follows regulations and do not approach the mountain within the radius of two kilometers. “So far, the status for Child of Krakatoa has not been raised, because the strength of the tremors is still fluctuating."

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

THAILAND - Continued floods across Thailand have brought the total number of deaths to 223 on Monday. The flooding hit the central and northeastern regions from Oct 10-Nov 14. 71 of the deaths were recorded in torrential floods in the South which were caused by a tropical storm and heavy rains. So far 39 provinces in the North and Northeast were affected by flooding and that although the situation has eased, flood conditions remain in 57 districts of 13 provinces. In the southern region, 12 provinces were hit by the tropical storm which triggered flash floods in the areas from Oct 30 through Nov 14. Among them, 46 districts of five southern provinces are still under floodwaters.
The Meteorological Department on Monday warned that the northeast monsoon which prevails over the South and the Gulf of Thailand will strengthen during Nov 15-17 and heavy rainfall is expected over the southern east coast with stronger winds and higher waves in the Gulf. In the Northeast, temperature is dropping 1-3 degrees Celsius due to the intense high pressure area from China which has covered upper Thailand and the South China Sea.

HEALTH THREATS -

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-Bravo Farms is recalling all Dutch Style Gouda because it may be contaminated with E. coli
-DPI Specialty Foods of Tualatin, OR is recalling Mauri Brand Gorgonzola cheese because it may be contaminated with Escherichia coli. Some Mauri Gorgonzola Cheese was sold at Costco.
-Orval Kent is recalling 23 products which contain fresh cilantro as a precautionary measure because the products may be contaminated with Salmonella.
-Baugher Enterprise, Inc, of Westminster, Maryland, is recalling all production of Baugher's Apple Cider because it may be contaminated with Escherichia coli

Monday, November 15, 2010

Haven't found any news articles on the Yemen, Djibouti, Gulf of Aden swarm yet - these 37+ quakes are all in basically the same location and were shallow (10-16 km deep).

**Gratitude unlocks the fullness of life.
It turns what we have into enough - and more.**
Melody Beattie


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 TAJIKISTAN
5.0 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN

Yesterday -
11/14/10 -
5.1 TURKEY-SYRIA BORDER REGION
5.1 NEAR THE COAST OF DJIBOUTI
5.2 NEAR THE COAST OF DJIBOUTI
5.3 NEAR THE COAST OF DJIBOUTI
5.0 NEAR THE COAST OF DJIBOUTI
(also in DJIBOUTI - 4.8, 4.7, 4.6, 4.8, 4.6)
5.1 NEAR THE COAST OF YEMEN
5.2 NEAR THE COAST OF YEMEN
5.4 NEAR THE COAST OF YEMEN
5.3 NEAR THE COAST OF YEMEN
5.0 NEAR THE COAST OF YEMEN
5.0 NEAR THE COAST OF YEMEN
(also in YEMEN - 4.7, 4.9, 4.9, 4.7, 4.9, 4.8, 4.7, 4.7, 4.9, 4.8, 4.8, 4.9, 4.5, 4.5, 4.9, 4.7, 4.6)
5.0 GULF OF ADEN
(also in GULF OF ADEN - 4.9, 4.5, 4.9, 4.8)
5.2 TONGA
5.0 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

NEW ZEALAND - After a couple of relatively quiet days, Christchurch has experienced another wave of aftershocks with two of them measuring over 4 on the Richter scale. The Christchurch earthquake on the 4th September has been followed by a couple of thousand aftershocks. These appear to be random and don’t follow any set pattern. Christchurch residents had felt more settled over the last week but a strong 4.7 aftershock awoke many people at 1:35am on the 14th November.
Friday the 12th had 6 aftershocks ranging from 3.0 to 3.8 on the Richter scale. Only one aftershock was recorded on Saturday the 13th and that was a 3.1. Starting early on Sunday morning, Christchurch was shaken by a 3.2 just after midnight followed a few minutes later by a 3.8. At 1:35am a 4.7 magnitude tremor shook the area, setting alarms off and causing houses to bang, rattle and shake. The next aftershock was a 3.6 after 5pm followed by 4.9 at 7:21pm. People are generally coping better than they were a few weeks ago but most report that being awoken from a deep sleep by aftershocks sets their hearts racing. The stronger daytime ones also get the adrenaline flowing and many say that their biggest concern is that the city may still get an aftershock of over 6 in magnitude. This was a worry soon after the 7.1 earthquake but seismologists say the risk of such a large aftershock has diminished over the weeks although it has not completely disappeared. Christchurch could still be experiencing aftershocks a year from now. The quakes are shallow which means they are generally felt more strongly. (photos)

VOLCANOES -

INDONESIA - Despite three blasts from Mount Anak Krakatau heard by local people early Sunday morning, the volcano was declared normal. “Activities at Mt. Anak Krakatau have always been fluctuating. At night there might be a blast sound due to low air pressure." Anyer residents said they panicked after they heard three explosions from Mount Anak Krakatau on Sunday. Despite the blasts, the status of Mount Anak Krakatu will not be raised to “alert”. “The safe areas would remain two kilometers from the volcano. Sea transportation has not been disturbed, so far."

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

AUSTRALIA - Melbourne is on track for its WETTEST YEAR SINCE 1996. More than 30mm of rain fell on Melbourne at the weekend, and there were flash floods in Gisborne and Beechworth. The deluge also prompted the closure of the Great Ocean Road due to a landslip. Some 593mm has fallen on the city centre so far this year and the yearly total looks set to outstrip the 629mm recorded in 2000. But they've still got a way to go to beat the 777mm that fell on Melbourne in 1996. 622mm fell in 2004. "Of that year, the monthly total rainfall for November was 122mm, compared to the 45mm so far this November." The bureau says there is a 60 per cent chance that Melbourne will exceed the median rainfall between November and January.
The wet and cool conditions have slowed locust activity, but have also hampered treatment. The wet weather follows a surge in locust activity on the back of a northerly wind and warm temperatures during the week. The downpour has also created a headache for farmers, threatening to disrupt grain harvesting and ruin crops. But the wet weather has been welcomed by places like Lake Bolac, which is overflowing for the first time in 15 years. In late 2008, the lake dried up for only the second time.

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Something obviously happened in Nigeria - but was it a volcanic eruption? - The frightening description of the devastating effects of the volcanic eruption in Abelakpam community in Benue State by some of the witnesses, an incident they claimed occurred Thursday, November 4 at about 9p.m after a heavy downpour, could set one wondering whether the end as professed by christians and many other religious groups was near. First according to the account, was a thunder storm followed by heavy vibration and then a flow of lava into the streams & wells and later an unprecedented destruction of lives and property. Going through records, the people of the unfortunate community are familiar with such incidents. In 1985, 2005 and 2009, similar eruptions devastated the community when Mount Mbatyough cracked. Although the three volcanic eruptions destroyed houses and farmlands, no life was lost. But according to some of the villagers, it turned the residents of the area into beggars.
November 4, 2010, Abelakpam claimed not less than twelve people aside from cutting off bridges, large expanse of farmlands and causing damage to houses. The emission, if not checked, may in future match the one that occurred recently in Indonesia. At the time of filing this report some of the victims of the eruption were yet to be found as their corpses may have been buried by the lava or the broken stones from the mountain. When the rumblings from the vibrations increased in intensity, it uprooted trees and rocks, threw them kilometers away and at the end of the wreckage, houses animals and other property estimated to cost millions of naira had been destroyed. In the midst of the confusion, the residents had to run for their dear lives to find refuge somewhere since their houses were no longer safe from the vagaries of the volcanic eruptions. The only source of drinkable water is the Kipam stream that has now been contaminated by the volcanic emission.
The State’s Commissioner for Enviroment and Water Resources said it was not a volcanic eruption but a landslide and that his ministry had sent some of his top officials to the scene to assess the damage and their reports indicated that there was no emission. “There is nothing like volcanic eruption in the state, it is not volcanic eruption but landslide.” (photos)
Fear Grips the Hilly Areas of Benue State - Last week's volcanic eruption has sent warning signs to the government and people of the state, as there are still areas in the state prone to future volcanic disturbances. The Kwande Local Government, which is on the border of the Republic of Cameroon in the North East, has over the years been caught in the wave of natural disasters. Should the Lake Nyos in Cameroon eventually over-flood its banks as has been projected by environmental scientists, the area will be a casualty. The history of the area traces volcanic eruptions, or whatever environmental scientists may want to call it, that have been observed in the mountainous areas of the local government in Turan for sometime now. In the Abande hills in the early 1980's, also close to Cameroon, one of the mountains vibrated and cracked, with gushed-out water destroying farmlands. Similarly, another big mountain in the area, called Bar-Mbatyough, in 2009 cracked and shook the earth, releasing poisonous water which destroyed and washed away major bridges, farms and submerged houses. More devastating were the effects of volcanic 'flakes' on the Abelakpam Mountain, in Mkomon district, in 2005. And as a result, the people were in 2005 traumatised with cracks and water havoc, a development which was repeated in the recent 2010 incidence.
The inhabitants of the area said that in this most recent incident,the mountain released a thunderous vibration that shook the entire district for more than one hour, during a heavy down pour that also lasted for three hours. During a media visit to the foot of the raging mountain, journalists noticed that grass surrounding it dried up at all the points where the water from the mountain forced it down the mountain. The bridges across Kipam, Mkomon and Nya Rivers and many culverts were visibly washed away at the time of the visit. If the calamity had struck in the day time, many people would have died out on their farmland. For the first time in the area, even at dawn, the earth was engulfed with heavy mist for five hours, thereby throwing more panic to the people. The people now survive on stored rain water for bath and drinking, as they cannot fetch from their normal sources. Water from the streams has not assumed its natural colour as it was said to be poisonous.
It was clear at the time of the visit to the community that despite the hue and cry by the community for assistance, no government presence was noticed at any point. The Director for Environment, State Ministry of Water Resources and Environment stated in a phone conversation that nobody died, though he admitted that it was impossible for him to visit the other side of the mountain, where he said a landslide had occurred. Meanwhile, an environmental specialist called on the federal government to urgently take action to rescue the people from imminent danger, suspecting the incident to be an active volcanic line which has been traced from the Adamawa high land. He urged government to install alarm signals in the area and suggested also the relocation of the people from the disaster area to other settlements.

**Allow yourself the luxury of doubt.
I love that expression, viewing doubt as an actual luxury,
not as something troubling.**
Will Self

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 NEAR THE COAST OF DJIBOUTI
5.2 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

Yesterday -
11/13/10 -
5.7 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION

11/12/10 -
5.4 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.8 SOUTHEAST OF EASTER ISLAND
5.2 TAIWAN
5.3 TAIWAN REGION
5.1 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.1 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.8 BANDA SEA

PAKISTAN - At least 12 people, including women and children, were injured when a powerful earthquake jolted Quetta and its surroundings on Friday afternoon. According to the Metrological Department, the earthquake lasted 8 seconds and measured 4.5 at the Richter Scale. The epicentre of the earthquake was detected at 10-kilometre depth in Chiltan mountains in the northeast of Quetta. It caused panic and fear amongst the people who rushed outside their houses, shopping centres and other commercial buildings. Twelve people suffered injuries in different parts of the city as they jumped off their rooftops. Two people received serious injuries. The powerful earthquake also caused minor damages to houses.

ARKANSAS - An Arkansas Geological Survey official says there's no correlation between the hydraulic fracturing method used to extract natural gas and recent earthquakes in central Arkansas, but he said the deep-well disposal of liquids used in the process may be a factor. A swarm of earthquakes in the Guy area began Oct. 1. More study is needed to determine whether the temblors have a natural cause or are connected to the process in which waste liquids are pumped under high pressure into deep injection wells that are then sealed. An injection well at a Colorado chemical weapons manufacturing center was determined to be the cause of earthquake activity there in the 1960s.

VOLCANOES -

INDONESIA - Merapi, Indonesia's most volatile volcano has unleashed another cloud of searing gas as rescuers pull more bodies from a village smothered a week ago by eruptions, raising the death toll to 240. The blast Saturday followed a similar one the day before. No new deaths have been reported from the latest flows, which were well within the zone that has been evacuated.
The mountain has continuously spewed ash - and occasionally torrents of rock, gas and lava in dramatic eruptions - since it roared to life Oct. 26 after years of dormancy. But several days of reduced activity have prompted scientists to warn that the volcano remains dangerous and they are still registering tremors around it.

PHILIPPINES - Brace yourselves, as two of the most active volcanoes in the Bicol Region may explode simultaneously, the director of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology warned on Thursday. While Mount Bulusan in Sorsogon province has erupted thrice since November 6, Mount Mayon in neighboring Albay province has been showing signs of unrest, with its crater glowing. Low-frequency earthquakes caused by Mayon was another indicator of the volcano’s “progressive unrest.” When asked iif Mount Bulusan and Mount Mayon will explode simultaneously, the Phivolcs director said that the possibility is not remote as the two volcanoes are restive. “It is not impossible and not remote to have simultaneous explosions from active volcanoes. In 2006, Mayon Volcano and Mount Bulusan erupted at the same time, so it might happen again now." Although there has been no magma build-up detected beneath Mount Bulusan,an active volcano like it still will most likely erupt. “Since 1682, when the worst case explosion of Mount Bulusan took place or nearly 400 years ago, all (its other) eruptions were steam-driven." He urged the officials and the mayors to monitor the volcano round the clock. The Director of the OCD-Bicol earlier expressed disgust with the ill-preparedness of local governments of Sorsogon. He told the local governments to come up with accurate data, which should be the basis for their responses to eventual emergencies. “Update immediately your contingency plans. We need that for planning purposes and strictly enforce the no-human-activity policy within the 4-kilometer PDZ to attain the zero-casualty goal of the government. Don’t wait for December to come up with accurate data." The local governments earlier said that they would be able to draw up contingency plans by next month.
Bulusan, a stratovolcano formed inside a calderal, has erupted 17 times since 1852. Before this month’s explosions, it had erupted between March 2006 and October 2007. Since 1918, there have been no magmatic eruptions. Mount Bulusan’s most destructive eruption happened 40,000 years ago.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

PAKISTAN - Floodwaters could linger up to six more months. The magnitude of the crisis means people are still going without aid. “There is nearly water everywhere. The only perspective of getting rid of the water is evaporation. Depending on depth and climate conditions, this will take between two and six months." The displaced “need everything to survive and to live with minimum respectability and this situation will continue for several months." UN and Western officials have described the floods as THE BIGGEST NATURAL DISASTER TO FACE THE INTERNATIONAL AID COMMUNITY and the magnitude of the crisis is “tremendous”.

Friday, November 12, 2010

**You must concentrate on one thing,
then everything else becomes easier.
But if you concentrate on many things,
you achieve nothing.**
Ravi Shankar

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.8 BANDA SEA

Yesterday -
11/11/10 -
5.0 TONGA
5.7 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G
5.4 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.3 MOLUCCA SEA

VOLCANOES -

PHILIPPINES - Mount Bulusan on Friday morning spewed ash and steam anew, the fourth time since Alert Level 1 was raised on the volcano last week. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) said the ash explosion occurred at 6:59 a.m. The explosion produced an ash and steam cloud which rose to about 700 meters above the volcano's summit. Before the explosion, 4 volcanic earthquakes were detected from the volcano and weak steaming was observed from the crater. Most of the ash is drifting towards Casiguran village in Escuala. The weather near the volcano remains clear unlike during the weekend when rain turned the ash into mud. Some residents have complained that the ash fall could trigger respiratory problems, which prompted many to wear gas masks.
Alert Level 1 was raised on Bulusan volcano after it emitted ash and steam over the weekend. Despite the ash explosion, residents within the 4-kilometer permanent danger zone refuse to leave their homes. Local officials are closely monitoring areas that may be affected by possible lahar flow from the volcano. The Phivolcs has repeatedly warned residents against possible lahar flows during heavy and continuous rainfall.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

COLUMBIA's rainy season has now taken the lives of 117 people. Over all 1,170,480 people have been affected by the extreme weather, in 28 of Colombia's 32 departments. 191 people have been injured and 20 have disappeared, while 1,654 houses have been destroyed and 196,000 damaged. A proposal will be made to the Council of Ministers that a state of emergency be declared in Colombia, as the country experiences THE WORST RAINY SEASON IN 60 YEARS. (photo)

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

RUSSIA - Temperatures in the Russian capital soared to a RECORD HIGH FOR NOVEMBER on Wednesday, hitting 13 degrees Celsius (55.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by midday. Overcast skies may prevent the temperature from rising even further above the previous November high of 12.6 degrees Celsius. Moscow's average historical temperature in November is about -1 degree Celsius (30.2 degrees Fahrenheit). Russia was hit by a RECORD HEATWAVE and wildfires ravaged the country until well into October, killing dozens of people and causing a health crisis in the capital.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

**Everyone should learn to do one thing supremely well
because he likes it,
and one thing supremely well because he detests it.**
Brigham Young

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.4 MOLUCCA SEA

Yesterday -
11/10/10 -
5.1 SOUTH OF PANAMA
5.1 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.2 LUZON, PHILIPPINES
6.4 SOUTHEAST INDIAN RIDGE
5.3 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE

VOLCANOES -

INDONESIA - Another Merapi eruption, number of victims raised to 191. The most recent volcano eruption happened on Wednesday, just after midnight. The ashes were spreading in all directions up to 50 kilometres. 598 people have obtained serious injuries. The number of evacuated inhabitants was increased to more than 343,000, and the zone of risk was widened to 20 kilometres. The series of volcano eruptions, which has been erupting hot ashes up to 1,500 meters in height and day Wednesday, started on October 26.

NIGERIA - Kwande volcanic eruption. Residents of Makurdi are now living in fear following reports of uncommon happenings at the mountainous Mkomon community in Kwande Local Government Area of Benue State where a volcanic eruption claimed two lives while property worth millions of Naira have also been destroyed. The latest incident in Mkomon is the fourth in the series of eruptions in the rather forgotten community some six hours drive from Makurdi.
The first eruption in the community occurred as far back as 26 years ago in 1984 followed by others in 2005 and 2009. Unfortunately nothing was done by way of an indepth study to pre-empt further occurrence until the latest incident. But unlike the case a few days ago, the earlier eruptions recorded in the mountainous community did little or no damage at all to inhabitants of the area that also borders Cameroun Republic. The community of predominantly farmers consisting of Ityuluv-Niev, Injor Niev-ya and Iwa Niev-ya natives has been devastated and cut off from the rest of the world, thanks to a volcanic eruption that was preceded by heavy tremor that saw rocks crashing down from the hill and destroying farmlands and houses in its wake. Narrating their ordeal to newsmen who thronged the community to see things for themselves, the Chief explained that on November 4, the entire district was terrified by a heavy vibration never experienced before. The Chief grieved over the loss of his 30-year-old nephew, who died in the incident alongside a teenager.
The magma emitted from the eruption has not only polluted their only source of potable water, the KIPAM Stream, but crops and houses worth several millions of Naira have also been destroyed. He intimated that he had written several memos to the Benue State Government on the need to take action on the incessant occurrences and also requested for the construction of the only road leading to the area but all pleas fell on deaf ears. The reaction of the Commissioner for the Ministry of Water Resources and Environmen when contacted on Saturday over the incident seem to give credence to this allegation. He merely dismissed it with a wave of the hand saying: “It never happened." Nothing has been said by the state government on the matter and no move was made to alleviate the suffering of the affected people yet the incident has continued to attract attention from within and outside the state.
Meanwhile, a geologist with the University of Agriculture has described the emissions at Abelakpa Mountain as a “function of geological forces” within the earth crust where magma substances boil, thereby forcing the earth to crack. He said the magma could travel a long distance and cause great havoc depending on the space of the crack on the mountain which is occasioned by tensional forces under the earth. The geologist suggested that an indepth scientific research be carried out around the mountain to determine the level of volcanic threat to the lives of the people. Also commenting on the incident, an environmentalist said it was a volcanic slide, warning the people against drinking water, including rain water, likely to have been contaminated by the magma. Meanwhile, as the community continue to live in fear of the unknown they have also made a passionate appeal to the state and federal governments to come to their rescue since the only available bridge in the community had been cut into pieces and water gushing from the eruption sight has also flooded parts of the community.
(photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

The Atlantic has seen a very large increase in major hurricanes during the 16-year period of 1995-2010 (average 3.8 per year) in comparison with the prior 25-year period of 1970-1994 (average 1.5 per year). Researchers attribute this upturn in Atlantic major hurricanes to natural multi-decadal variability in the strength of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation and a concomitant increase in tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures. These changes are not directly related to global sea-surface temperature increases or atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
No hurricanes made landfall along the Florida Peninsula and East Coast. This marks the fifth year in a row with no hurricane landfalls along this portion of the U.S. coastline. This is THE FIRST TIME SINCE RELIABLE U.S. RECORDS BEGAN IN 1878 THAT NO HURRICANES HAVE MADE LANDFALL along the Florida Peninsula and East Coast IN A FIVE-YEAR PERIOD. This is the FIRST TIME IN RECORDED HISTORY THAT AS MANY AS 12 HURRICANES HAVE OCCURRED in the Atlantic basin WITHOUT A U.S. LANDFALL. Prior to that record, at least two hurricanes made landfall in the United States when a minimum of 10 hurricanes occurred in the Atlantic basin. No major hurricanes made U.S. landfall this year. Following seven major hurricane landfalls in 2004-2005, the nation has not witnessed a major hurricane landfall in the past five seasons. The five consecutive years between 1901-1905 and 1910-1914 have been the only other consecutive five-year periods with no major U.S. hurricane landfalls. Only one tropical storm made U.S. landfall this year (Bonnie). We have not had a hurricane landfall since Hurricane Ike in 2008. The last time that the United States went two years in a row with no hurricane landfalls was 2000-2001. Only three tropical storms have made landfall over the past two years. The last time that three or fewer tropical cyclones made landfall in any consecutive two-year period was 1990-1991.
The 2010 hurricane season had the following special characteristics:
• 88.25 named storm days occurred in 2010. This ties 2010 with 2008 for the sixth most-named storm days in a single season since 1944.
• Twelve hurricanes occurred in 2010. Since 1944, only two seasons, 1969 (12) and 2005 (15) have had the same or more hurricanes in a single season.
• Five major hurricanes formed during the 2010 hurricane season. Since 1944, only seven seasons (1950, 1955, 1961, 1964, 1996, 2004 and 2005) have had more than five major hurricanes form.
• No Category 5 hurricanes developed in 2010. This is the third consecutive year with no Category 5 hurricanes. The last time that two or more years occurred in a row with no Category 5 hurricanes was 1999-2002.
• Eleven named storms formed between Aug. 22 and Sept. 29. This is the most named storms to form during this period, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD of nine named storms set in 1933, 1949, 1984 and 2002.
• Five hurricanes formed during the month of October. Only 1870 (six hurricanes) and 1950 (five hurricanes) have had at least five systems reach hurricane strength for the first time during October.
• Igor and Julia both were at Category 4 status on Sept. 15. The only other time that two storms both were at Category 4 status in the Atlantic was on Sept. 15, 1926• Four Category 4 hurricanes (Danielle, Earl, Igor and Julia) formed in the Atlantic between Aug. 27 and Sept. 15 (20 days). This is the SHORTEST TIME SPAN ON RECORD FOR FOUR CATEGORY 4 HURRICANES TO DEVELOP, breaking the old record of 24 days set in 1999.