Friday, July 29, 2011

U.S. said to be unprepared for severe weather - A top U.S. Senate Democrat said Thursday the federal government is not prepared to handle "catastrophic" weather events. He chaired a hearing of the Financial Services and General Government Appropriations Subcommittee to examine the federal government's preparedness for the economic impact of weather events, which he said are growing in frequency and severity. After hearing testimony, he said the federal government should follow the lead of the private sector and begin to focus strategically on the long-term budgetary impacts of severe weather events.
"We are not prepared. Our weather events are getting worse, catastrophic in fact. The private sector is prepared, but the federal government is ignoring the obvious. We need to do more to protect federal assets and respond to growing demands for disaster assistance on an increasing frequency."
After a record-setting 2010, "the U.S. has already experienced eight natural disasters this year -- the previous record was nine. Chicago, in my home state of Illinois, has seen some of the worst weather in history."
In February, Chicago was shut down as 2 feet of snow and 20 mph winds hammered the city, killing 36 people and causing $3.9 billion in damages, and last weekend, the city was hit with the largest recorded single-day rainfall in history. "Combined with last night's severe rainstorms, July 2011 IS NOW THE WETTEST MONTH IN THE 122 YEARS OF CHICAGO'S RECORDED HISTORY."
In 2011, nearly $28 billion in damages already have been caused by catastrophic events, and 2011 is tied for fifth as the deadliest tornado year for the United States since modern record-keeping began in 1950, with 537 casualties. Wildfire conditions in the Southern Plains and Southwest have led to a record breaking 1.79 million acres burned, and record-setting rain caused historic flooding throughout the Midwest that is forecast to rival the Great Flood of 1993.

**We live in the space between disasters.**

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
7/28/11 -
5.0 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA
5.4 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.5 OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
5.2 OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
5.2 CENTRAL ALASKA
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

Scientists Study Future Megathrust Earthquake In U.S. Pacific Northwest - The Olympic Peninsula in Washington State, USA, and British Columbia, Canada, could be among the hardest hit locations in the event of a future megathrust earthquake along the Pacific coast. A new study indicates the depth of the fault between the two tectonic plates forming the Earth’s surface in the Pacific Northwest is seven kilometres deeper than previously proposed. It may mean part of the fault’s locked zone — where a megathrust earthquake can occur — could be beneath the Olympic Peninsula.
The team studied a 200-kilometre section of a fault formed by the subduction of the oceanic Juan de Fuca plate under the continental North America plate. In this region, the two plates are converging by four centimetres annually. The section runs north-south from Victoria on Vancouver Island to southern Washington state. Scientists call it a transient slip zone because the fault between two plates slips gradually every 14 months or so. This gradual slip takes place over a two-week period and triggers tremors that are so small people don’t notice them. In this study the slowly slipping section of the fault beneath Washington state was found to be 27 to 42 kilometres deep instead of 25 to 35.
Megathrust earthquakes occur at subduction zones at destructive plate boundaries (convergent boundaries), where one tectonic plate is forced under (subducts) another. Due to the shallow dip of the plate boundary, which causes large sections to get stuck, these earthquakes are among the world’s largest, with moment magnitudes (Mw) that can exceed 9.0. Since 1900, all six earthquakes of magnitude 9.0 or greater have been megathrust earthquakes. No other type of known tectonic activity can produce earthquakes of this scale.
The most recent earthquakes of this scale include the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake, the 2010 Maule earthquake in Chile and the Sumatra-Andaman Islands (2004 Indian Ocean) earthquake. Experts say a future megathrust earthquake, measuring 9.0 on the Richter scale, will occur somewhere off the coasts of B.C., Washington state and California. That is where the Juan de Fuca and North America plates are locked and are known to slip every 500 to 600 years. The last such earthquake was in 1700.
“Changes in rock type also influence the amount of slip on the fault, which determines the size of the earthquake. Some changes in rock type may halt the slip on the fault, others may facilitate the slip. For example, in the 2004 Sumatra megathrust earthquake the fault started to slip in the south and didn’t stop until it was 1,200 kilometres north, three minutes later, which was why the earthquake was so large.” More studies are needed to determine how changes in rock properties influence the location of earthquakes before the magnitude and location of future ones can be predicted. The eastern edge of the locked zone may be located where tremors occur, for example beneath the Olympic Peninsula. Determining exactly where the fault is locked is critical to estimating the size of a future megathrust earthquake. Slip in the transient zone can put pressure on the eastern or landward boundary of the locked zone and trigger the Big One.

VOLCANOES -

Recently El Hierro volcano of the Canary Islands has been experiencing a seismic swarm beneath it, which as of yesterday reached to over 700 events. Most of these events have been at magnitudes of around 2 and are clustered beneath El Hierro. The depths of these earthquakes have been roughly between 9 and 16 km for the most part, with the exception of a few shallower and deeper quakes. The clustering of these earthquakes is mainly confined to an oval area at 10 km depth. El Hierro is a broadly basaltic volcano which might have been active in 1793 although this is uncertain.
So the big question is, what’s happening here? It is possible that there is magma on the move at depth, perhaps moving into a magma chamber. Does this mean that there will be an eruption? Maybe, maybe not. The majority of magma intrusions do not reach the surface, and as has been seen elsewhere, in the past, activity can cease at anytime. As of yet (to my knowledge) there have been no other signs of moving magma at the surface such as ground deformation or increased gas emission, although GPS antenna have been set up by officials at the Canary Islands. For now it is too early to tell what (if anything) will happen, so keep watching. (graph & map)

TROPICAL STORMS -
-TROPICAL STORM DON was located about 335 mi (540 km) SE of Corpus Christi,Texas.

-Tropical storm 10w (Nock-Ten), located approximately 250 nm south-southwest of Hong Kong, China.

-Tropical Storm 11w (Muifa) was located approximately 890 nm south-southeast of Kadena AB ( forecast to eventually head towards Japan.)

TROPICAL STORM DON strengthened slightly Thrusday as it churned through the Gulf of Mexico toward the southeast coast of Texas. At 6pm GMT (4am AEST) on Thursday, Don was 475 miles (765 kilometres) from Corpus Christi and 430 miles from Brownsville, both on the Gulf coast. The storm was expected to make landfall today or Saturday local time. Maximum sustained winds had reached 45 miles per hour, and Don was moving northwest at a speed of 15 mph.
"On this track, the center of Don should... approach the Texas coast on Friday and reach the Texas coast Friday night or Saturday." The storm could gather strength in the next 36 hours. Most of the Gulf coast in Texas was under a storm warning or watch, but oil hubs Galveston and Houston appeared to be in the clear. Don, the fourth tropical storm in the Atlantic this season, is the second to cross the Gulf of Mexico after Arlene hit east and central Mexico in June. The Atlantic hurricane season spans six months from June to November, with the highest number of storms taking place in September and October.

Mere hours after Tropical Storm Juaning (Nock-Ten) left Philippine territory, a new cyclone entered the Philippine area of responsibility Thursday afternoon and was codenamed Kabayan.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

SOUTH KOREA - Seoul officials under fire as storm toll hits 59. Authorities came under fire Friday for allegedly "man-made" disasters in South Korea as the toll from this week's RECORD RAINFALL rose to 59 dead and 10 missing. Among the dead were 16 killed when mudslides hit southern parts of Seoul on Wednesday and 13 who perished in a landslide in the Chuncheon region, 100 kilometres (60 miles) east of the capital. Three others died in a landslide at Paju north of Seoul.
Experts and news media attacked Seoul city authorities, accusing them of making the situation worse through an allegedly reckless development of hills near residential areas in the south of the capital. Some hillsides were redeveloped into public parks and hiking tracks, meaning rainwater could not be absorbed so easily, and natural waterways were changed to make artificial lakes, critics said. "The heavens alone are not to be blamed for the disaster as reckless development made it worse. This is why there are claims the disaster is man-made." Experts have been warning that such activities might trigger landslides. "However, administrative authorities have turned a deaf ear to them. Showcase development triggered disaster".
Some residents living under Mount Umyeon in southern Seoul, where eight landslides occurred, believe the disaster was preventable. A storm last September felled many trees on the mountain. But official efforts to replace the trees had been slow, leaving the mountain vulnerable to landslides. The weather agency was also criticised for failing to forecast the FREAKISHLY HEAVY downpour, which battered the capital city of 10 million and densely populated surrounding areas. A total of 301.5 millimeters (just over 12 inches) of rain fell in Seoul on Wednesday, the LARGEST SINGLE-DAY RAINFALL IN JULY SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1907. For three days from Tuesday, Seoul received 536 mm of rain, THE MOST FOR A THREE-DAY PERIOD IN JULY SINCE 1907. The rains left more than 11,000 people from 5,250 households homeless. Power supply was cut to some 130,000 houses nationwide.
Heavy rains also battered North Korea, with the south and east of the country the worst-hit regions. Nearly 100 mm of rain hit the southwestern region of Haeju in just three hours early Thursday.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

An exceptional wildfire in northern Alaska in 2007 put as much carbon into the air as the entire Arctic tundra absorbs in a year, scientists say. The Anaktuvuk River fire burned across more than 1,000 sq km (400 sq miles), doubling the extent of Alaskan tundra visited by fire since 1950. With the Arctic warming fast, the team suggests that fires could become more common. If that happens, it COULD CREATE A NEW CLIMATE FEEDBACK, they say.
Fires in the tundra are uncommon because the ground is covered in snow and ice for large periods of the year. Temperatures are low even in summer, and the ground can also remain wet after the ice has melted. But 2007 saw unusually warm and dry conditions across much of the Arctic - resulting, among other things, in spectacularly fast melting of Arctic sea ice. This created conditions more conducive to fire, and when lightning struck the tundra in July, the Anaktuvuk River fire ignited. "Most tundra fires have been very small - this was an order of magnitude larger than the historical size. In 2007, we had a hot, dry summer, there was no rain for a long period of time. So the tundra must have been highly flammable, with just the right conditions for fire to spread until the snow in October finally stopped it."
According to the team's calculations, the statistics of the fire are remarkable. It is the largest on record, doubling the cumulative area burned since 1950. It put carbon into the atmosphere about 100 times faster than it usually escapes from the ground in the Arctic summer, and released more than 2 million tonnes. Although a small contribution to global emissions, this is about the same amount as the entire swathe of tundra around the Arctic absorbs in a single year.
The melting of Arctic sea ice suggests 2007's record may be broken this year There is some vegetation on the summer lands, which did burn; but the main fuel is carbon in the ground itself. The Anaktuvuk fire burned down to a maximum depth of 15cm (6in), and was burning carbon sequestered away over the last 50 years. What this implies for the future is uncertain. Climate models generally predict warmer temperatures across the Arctic, which could increase the frequency of fires and so a net loss of carbon into the atmosphere - reinforcing global warming. On the other hand, plant life could flourish under these conditions, potentially increasing absorption and sequestering of carbon from the atmosphere. The northern region of Alaska could become "vastly different from the frozen, treeless tundra of today. "And it's one that may feed back positively to global climate change."
Another impact of the fire that has yet to be fully assessed is that the blackened soil absorbs more solar energy than normally vegetated tundra. This abets melting of the permafrost layer below. "Once permafrost melts beyond a certain depth on a slope, then all of the organic layer slides down the slope like a landslide. This whole issue of melting can lead to other huge changes in drainage, in areas of wetlands - releasing carbon that's been frozen since the Pleistocene [Epoch, which ended more than 10,000 years ago]."
The latest data on Arctic sea ice, meanwhile, reveals that 2011 could well see a melting season that will beat the 2007 record. Currently, about the same area of sea is covered in ice as at the same point in 2007, which the US National Snow and Ice Data Center ascribes to "persistent above-average temperatures and an early start to [the] melt".

SPACE WEATHER -

BIG SUNSPOTS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class solar flares today. The source would be one of three big sunspots emerging along the sun's northeastern limb. Among the three, the leading sunspot AR1260 is most active. It has produced more than a dozen C-class flares in the past 24 hours, more than doubling the total for the entire month of July so far. New sunspot AR1263, however, could eventually cause more trouble. Magnetograms of the active region reveal a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful X-class eruptions

HEALTH THREATS -

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-Flying Food Group recalls additional sandwiches, parfaits, wraps, plates, and salads) because they have the potential to be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Goldfish survive 134 days without food after quake - Shaggy and Daphne, two tiny goldfish, are the smallest survivors of the February earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand, that devastated the city and killed 181 people. The two scaly swimmers survived four months - 134 days - without food when they were left stranded.

**If you want to know something about a thing - look at it.**
Albert Einstein


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.4 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

Yesterday -
7/27/11 -
5.2 KEP. TANIMBAR REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.9 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.3 EAST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -

ICELAND - Katla, one of Iceland's largest volcanoes, is showing increased signs of activity as observers today reported an increase in the strength of tell-tale earth tremors. A swarm of earthquakes struck the 9-mile wide volcano, a week after geophysicists warned of an “imminent danger” of an eruption on the island. The volcano is capable of producing four times the ash of Iceland’s last eruption in May.
Observers believe ‘UNUSUAL’ magma movement deep beneath Katla could signal the early stages of activity that could lead to a huge explosion. The depth of the latest earthquakes, which lasted for 5-and-half hours yesterday, was said to be 3.5km beneath the ground. The earthquake activity around Katla has now been steadily gaining strength over the past five weeks. Katla is known to have erupted 16 times over the past 1,000 years at intervals of 40–80 years. It has not significantly erupted for 92 years, although there may have been small eruptions that did not break the ice cover in 1955 and 1999.
Last year's eruption of Eyjafjallajökull triggered the mass closure of European air space as the resulting ash cloud was thought to pose a danger to aircraft engines. In the past 1,000 years, all three known eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull have triggered subsequent Katla eruptions. Geophysicists first reported Katla stirring in June when measuring devices picked up an increase in tremors. On July 9, the Icelandic authorities started evacuating villages around the volcano after the critical detection of gases – an observation flight over the glacier-topped crater also reported cracks in the ice, suggesting a large meltdown of the glacier on the south-eastern rim of the Katla crater.

CHILE - Ash from Chile's Puyehue volcano grounded flights until at least today at airports in the capitals of Uruguay and Argentina. Located in the Andes Mountains, the Puyehue volcano has been causing air travel nightmares since early June.

TROPICAL STORMS -
-TROPICAL STORM DON IS HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS COAST.

-TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN was approximately 310 nm west-northwest of Manila, Philippines.

-TROPICAL STORM 11w (ELEVEN) was located approximately 455 nm west of Andersen AFB, Guam.

NOCK-TEN - The system will reach peak intensity just before landfall over Hainan Island, will then weaken as it travels over the terrain of the island. The system will re-emerge over the Gulf of Tonkin where it will re-intensify. It will make landfall for the last time over northern Vietnam, south of Hanoi, where it will begin to dissipate.
Five provinces in southern China have been alerted as tropical storm Nock-Ten, which killed at least 25 people in the Philippines, is approaching. Waist-deep flood waters swamped the houses of nearly half of the population of eastern Albay Province after Tropical Storm Nock-ten set off pounding rains in the Philippines beginning Monday.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

SOUTH KOREA - WORST STORM IN A CENTURY - Flash floods and landslides triggered by torrential rain have left 41 people dead and 12 missing in South Korea as of Thursday morning.

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

** There are two big forces at work, external and internal.
We have very little control over external forces such as
tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, disasters, illness and pain.
What really matters is the internal force.
How do I respond to those disasters?
Over that I have complete control.**
Leo F. Buscaglia


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.3 KEP. TANIMBAR REGION, INDONESIA
5.4 EAST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS

Yesterday -
7/26/11 -
5.1 PERU-ECUADOR BORDER REGION
5.1 GULF OF CALIFORNIA
5.6 GULF OF CALIFORNIA
5.4 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.7 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.4 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.0 NORTHEASTERN IRAN

TROPICAL STORMS -
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) was LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE, GUAM.

TYPHOON 10W (NOCK-TEN) was LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

SOUTH KOREA - Six people were killed and three remained buried after a landslide triggered by torrential rain smashed into a South Korean mountainous region. The landslide just after midnight today (local time) in the Chuncheon area 100km east of Seoul flattened an inn and three homes. The six killed in the inn, near the Soyang River Dam, were all college students who were in the area for volunteer work. 20 others were injured, four of them seriously. More than 500 firefighters and police have been sent to the area to speed up the rescue.
UPDATE - At least 10 people are dead and several missing after heavy rain triggered the landslide in a mountain resort in northern South Korea. Hundreds of rescuers have been sifting through rubble and mud to find survivors in Chuncheon, about 100km (60 miles) east of Seoul. Hotels, restaurants and coffee shops were wrecked when the slide occurred just after midnight (1500 GMT Tuesday). More than 250mm (10in) of rain have fallen on Chuncheon in two days. The ten victims were reportedly college students doing volunteer work in the area, who had all been staying in the same hotel. "We were asleep and suddenly heard a big sound, and then the ceiling fell down. I heard a weird sound like a train. I felt weird for hearing that train sound, but heard someone shouting 'Help me'. So I went out to see, and I saw it was swept by landslide all over." More heavy rain was forecast for Wednesday. (photo & map)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Snow dump traps skiers in New Zealand - The great snow dump New Zealand tourism operators have been praying for has arrived with gusto, trapping hundreds of skiers and blocking main highways across the country. It is the WORST WHITE-OUT IN A DECADE. Winter hit late across the Tasman, but arrive it has, with huge snowfalls across the entire South Island and the southern half of the North Island.
The dump caught many by surprise, stranding 250 skiers at Mt Lyford, near Christchurch, up the mountain overnight, leaving them to sleep in the resort's cafeteria. The risk of avalanche was deemed too high to allow them to leave yesterday. Some of the country's main roads have been closed due to snowfalls, and many others are coated in dangerous black ice, slowing traffic to a crawl.
Some towns, like tourist ski village Wanaka, near Queenstown, are expected to run out of petrol after tankers could not make the trip.There were "queues and queues" when news of the shortage spread through town. "As soon as people came down off the skifields it was bedlam."
The snow has not brought cheer to earthquake-ravaged Christchurch, where thousands of people are living in damaged homes or temporary accommodation. The worst white-out in a decade is keeping residents indoors, but many are struggling in freezing conditions. "We're very cold, feel a bit abandoned." The chill just added to the worries. "No power and people are cold, just another horrendous nightmare added on top of it." Authorities fear melting ice will cause havoc on broken-up roads and properties that still have no stormwater drains.

HEALTH THREATS -

Papaya Salmonella hits 23 U.S. states - The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that two more patients have been sickened in a multistate Salmonella Agona outbreak linked to papayas imported from Mexico. The new reports push the total to 99 cases, and the number of affected states stayed the same at 23. The Papaya Salmonella strain has links to an outbreak last year.
The distributor, Agromod Produce based in McAllen, Texas, recalled the papayas it sells under four different brand names after tests found the outbreak strain in produce samples from its facility and from papayas at a US border station that were bound for the company. The CDC also said the outbreak strain is made up of four closely related pulse-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) patterns that have RARELY BEEN SEEN in its PulseNet, an electronic network for sharing molecular fingerprinting. Three of the patterns were first identified starting in 2010 and were seen in 119 patients from 14 states between May 28 and Sep 10, 2010; however, an investigation that summer by the CDC and its partners did not find an outbreak source, though the probe focused on fresh fruit, including papaya. The CDC said the profile of last year's outbreak resembles the current one.

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Sorry, late update due to friend in hospital (prognosis is good).

**You will not destroy our democracy
and our ideals for a better world...
No one will bomb us into silence;
no one will shoot us into silence.**
Jens Stoltenberg, Norwegian Prime Minister


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.1 GULF OF CALIFORNIA
5.6 GULF OF CALIFORNIA
5.4 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.7 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.4 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.0 NORTHEASTERN IRAN

Yesterday -
7/25/11 -
5.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.1 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.5 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.3 NORTHERN PERU
5.0 WESTERN TURKEY
6.0 LUZON, PHILIPPINES
5.5 BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.3 TONGA
5.1 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G
6.3 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.

JAPAN - Among the new information gathered by researchers since the rare magnitude 9 quake in March is what is believed to be the first study of how a shock this powerful affects the rock and soil beneath the surface. The quake weakened subsurface materials by as much as 70 percent. That non-linear response from the top layer of the Earth’s crust affected how the movement of faults deep beneath the surface was delivered to buildings, bridges and other structures.
Understanding how the soil responds to powerful earthquakes could be important to engineers and architects designing future buildings to withstand the level of acceleration measured in this quake. The information will also help seismologists develop new models to predict the effects of these rare and extremely powerful events.
“The degree of non-linearity in the soil strength was AMONG THE LARGEST EVER OBSERVED. This is perhaps not too surprising because the GROUND SHAKING generated by this earthquake – acceleration as much as three times the Earth’s gravity – is also AMONG THE HIGHEST EVER OBSERVED.”
By comparing data on the acceleration of motion from sensors on the bedrock to comparable information from surface sensors, they were able to study how the properties of the soil changed in response to the shaking. “The shear modulus of the soil was reduced as much as 70 percent during the strongest shaking. Typically, near the surface you have soil and several layers of sedimentary rock. Below that, you have bedrock, which is much harder than the surface material. When seismic waves propagate, the top layers of soil can amplify them.” Non-linear response from soils is not unusual, though it varies depending on their composition. Similar but smaller effects have been seen in other earthquake-prone areas such as California and Turkey. The shallow layers of the Earth’s upper crust can be complex, composed of varying types of soil, clay particles, gravel and larger rock layered in sediments.
Because the March 11 quake lasted an UNUSUALLY LONG time and generated a wide range of ground motions of greatly varying strengths, it provided an unprecedented data set to scientists interested in studying non-linear soil behaviour. Beyond the immediate effect of the strongest shock, the researchers were interested in how the soils recover their strength after the shaking stops. That recovery time can vary from fractions of a second to several years. “It is still not clear whether there could be longer recovery times at certain sites. This is a function of soil type and other factors.” If the soils are very porous, water can lengthen the recovery. “For porous media, the ground shaking could cause water to go into the pores, which will also reduce the shear modulus of the soil. If water is involved, the recovery time will be much longer.” Soil response to aftershocks, which ranged up to magnitude 7.9 after the main Tohoku earthquake, was also studied. Knowing how soils respond to strong shaking is also important to predicting how motion deep within the Earth will be translated to structures built on the surface. “Understanding how soil loses and regains its strength during and after large earthquakes is crucial for better understanding and predicting strong ground motions. This, in turn, would help earthquake engineers to improve the design of buildings and foundations, and could ultimately help to protect people in future earthquakes.” (map)

VOLCANOES -

Signs Of Cleveland Volcano Eruption In Alaska - Through a satellite some images of the Cleveland volcano, which is situated in Alaska, have been captured. According to scientists, there are signs of the first big eruption of this volcano in ten years. After observing the signs of volcano eruption, an eruption advisory has been issued by the Alaska Volcano Observatory. The Cleveland Volcano has a height of nearly six thousand feet and it is located at a distance of nine hundred and forty miles from the south-west of Anchorage. According to the observatory, the advisory has not just been issued on an assumption. It is based on the thermal anomalies which are detected by a satellite. As judged from the signs of the expected volcano eruption, the ash clouds will spew up to twenty thousand feet above the sea level.
Cleveland Volcano lies below the flight path of a commercial air line path between Asia and North America. The last major eruption of this volcano occurred in the year 2001 and at that time the ash blasted more than five miles in the sky. It spilled lava from summit crater. Since then the Cleveland Volcano has experienced many smaller eruptions.

TROPICAL STORMS -
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) was LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE, GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) was LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.

Philippine storm - One person has drowned while thousands have fled their flooded homes as a tropical storm hit the Philippines, causing heavy rains and rough seas that disrupted aviation and shipping.
Tropical storm Nock-ten also left two fishermen missing, while six others were rescued at sea as it approached the main island of Luzon. Classes were called off in Manila and surrounding provinces and at least a dozen local flights were cancelled as the storm, packing 80km/h winds, brushed past Bicol, Luzon's southeast tip, unleashing floods there. "This storm is dangerous, especially for low-lying and flood-prone areas. The winds are not that powerful but the rains are very strong and they will cause our rivers to overflow."
The National Disaster and Risk Reduction and Management Council has advised local officials to order evacuations of areas deemed at risk in the disaster-prone Bicol peninsula. More than 70,000 families fled their homes in Albay province in Bicol due to the rising waters. The government weather service said the storm was moving northwest and was expected to continue to bring heavy rains in Manila and nearby areas as it crosses northern Luzon from Wednesday.
UPDATE - Nine die, thousands flee Philippines storm - NINE people were killed and 25 went missing as tropical storm Nock-ten struck the Philippines, causing floods and landslides.

Monday, July 25, 2011

Houses in seismically active zones are the world's unrecognized weapons of mass destruction - Too many countries are playing Russian roulette when it comes to seismic risk. Seismic risk mitigation is the greatest urban policy challenge the world confronts today. If you consider that too strong a claim, try to imagine another way in which bad urban policy could kill a million people in 30 seconds. Yet the politics of earthquakes are rarely discussed and, when discussed, widely misunderstood.
Take Japan's Sendai earthquake on March 11, which released 600 million times the energy of the Hiroshima bomb. The ensuing partial meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant prompted international hysteria about nuclear power, but few seemed to realize that a far deadlier threat had been averted - houses in seismically active zones are the world's unrecognized weapons of mass destruction — and Japan's WMD didn't go off. Its buildings remained standing, and the people inside survived - at least those that weren't swept away by the accompanying tsunami, a force of nature against which we are still largely helpless. That so few buildings collapsed in the earthquake was a human triumph of the first order. But cities around the world seem happy to ignore the earthquake threat — one that is only growing as the cities themselves get bigger and bigger.
The Japan quake was not the catastrophe it could have been because the country learned from experience. In the wake of the 1995 Kobe quake, in which 200,000 buildings collapsed, Japanese engineers took extensive measures to reinforce buildings and infrastructure. They installed rubber blocks under bridges. They spaced buildings farther apart to prevent domino-style tumbling. They introduced extra bracing, base isolation pads, hydraulic shock absorbers. A minute before the March earthquake, seismic monitoring systems sent warnings to Japanese cellphones. Elevators glided obediently to the nearest floor and opened. Surgeries were halted. Videos from Tokyo show skyscrapers swaying gracefully, like cornstalks in the wind. Not one collapsed.
But many of the world's biggest cities are at massive seismic risk, built more like Port-au-Prince, Haiti, which was devastated by an earthquake in 2010. Eight of the world's 10 biggest cities are built on fault lines, and they are growing larger every day, as is the trend of housing migrant populations in death traps. As a result, it's likely that before long we'll see a headline announcing, "One Millon Dead in Massive Earthquake."
We know how to construct buildings that don't collapse. We also know which cities are most at risk: Bogota, Cairo, Caracas, Dhaka, Islamabad, Istanbul, Jakarta, Karachi, Katmandu, Lima, Manila, Mexico City, New Delhi, Quito and Tehran. Los Angeles and Tokyo are prime candidates for a major quake, but they will probably survive because they are well-built - though Los Angeles could do better.
On Feb. 27, 2010, a magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck near the city of Concepcion, Chile. Though the epicenter was not at the heart of the city, this quake was 100 times bigger than the one that leveled Port-au-Prince. It was so massive that it shortened the length of the day by 1.26 microseconds and moved the Earth on its axis by eight centimeters. When it was over, the entire city of Concepcion had been moved three yards to the west.
The death toll from this monster was 521. Each death was its own disaster, of course, but the number was nevertheless astoundingly small for an earthquake that, by all rights, should have destroyed Chile as a whole. Chile did so well because it has some of the strictest and most advanced building codes in the world, and because the codes do not merely exist on paper — they are enforced.
Now consider Turkey. Like Chile, Turkey is no stranger to earthquakes. In 1509, an earthquake killed between 5% and 10% of Constantinople's population. Since then, the city has suffered serious quake damage 11 times, most recently at the end of the 19th century. There is not a geologist alive who doubts that a major earthquake is likely to hit Istanbul soon. In 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey put the odds of it happening within 30 years at 62%. It is estimated that it will kill 200,000 to 300,000 people. The cost of the cleanup — $50 billion would be an optimistic estimate — will surely set Turkey's economy back decades. It will be a political cataclysm, with massive ramifications for the entire region. Many buildings in Istanbul are clearly unsound. There are ground floors, for example, with walls or columns removed to make way for store displays, violating one of the most important principles of earthquake-resistant construction. There are vast neighborhoods filled with illegal, flimsy structures. They tend to be built on bad soil. They are packed with children. Even buildings approved by engineers are largely not built to code, including the city's hospitals, of which 86% are at high risk of collapse.

**Opinion has caused more trouble on this little earth
than plagues or earthquakes.**
Voltaire


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.3 TONGA
5.1 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
6.3 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.

Yesterday -
7/24/11 -
5.1 JAVA, INDONESIA
6.2 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 MONGOLIA-CHINA BORDER REGION
5.0 PAKISTAN
5.0 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE

VOLCANOES -

INDONESIA - About 5000 Indonesians who fled the eruption of Mount Lokon have returned to their villages as the volcano quieted down.

Volcanic ash, soot helped slow recent warming. Tiny solid and liquid particles in the atmosphere, including volcanic ash and soot from fossil fuel burning, have kept the Earth from warming as fast as it otherwise would have in the past dozen years, according to a new study.

TROPICAL STORMS -
-Post-Tropical Cyclone DORA HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE PACIFIC.

-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W was LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.

-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (SE OF GUAM) - THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

PHILIPPINES - The tropical depression off Eastern Visayas may become a cyclone in 24 hours. Flash floods and landslides threaten parts of Southern Luzon and the Visayas as the system threatens to become a cyclone within the next day, state weather forecasters said Monday. The tropical depression has been codenamed "Juaning".
Tropical depression Ten is forecast to strike the Philippines as a tropical storm at about 00:00 GMT on 27 July.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

ILLINOIS - RECORD RAINFALL drenches Chicago. Flights are canceled, power is knocked out and roads are flooded as the city deals with THE LARGEST SINGLE-DAY RAINFALL SINCE RECORDS BEGAN in 1871. As a heat wave continued to sear much of the East with 100-plus temperatures Saturday, Chicago was pounded with record-breaking rainfall. At O'Hare International Airport, rainfall totals had reached 6.91 inches Saturday morning. The highest previous daily total was 6.64 inches on Sept. 12, 2008. Commuters soldiered on their way, trying to deal with the effects of overnight storms. Two truckers had to be rescued by boat after abandoning their nearly submerged trucks on a South Side expressway. Roads into the airport were backed up, and the rain caused numerous flight delays of up to one hour and dozens of cancellations. The storm knocked out power for more than 150,000 customers. As of noon Saturday, about 74,000 were without power.

BANGLADESH - At least four people were killed and more than 200,000 stranded after three days of heavy rains triggered flash floods and landslides in southeastern Bangladesh. The government's flood forecasting and warning centre said more than 49 centimetres (19 inches) of rain had pounded the worst-hit Cox's Bazaar district since Wednesday, flooding at least 200 villages in the hilly region. "One child was buried under mud due to landslide and three more people were washed away in the huge torrents of water." Two more people were missing and more than 200,000 have been marooned by the floods, forcing 3,200 families to take shelter in schools, cyclone shelters and on high ground. Southeastern Bangladesh is prone to deadly flash floods as tens of thousands of people live in makeshift houses on deforested, muddy slopes along the hills. Earlier this month, at least 17 people died in adjoining Chittagong district from a rain-triggered landslide. At least 53 people were killed in June last year when heavy rains caused landslides and flash floods in large swathes of Cox's Bazaar district, home to the world's largest unbroken beach.

Freak weather forces waterfall to flow UPWARDS in extreme 75mph winds - Extreme weather has been battering Australia this week. The strong winds, which are seriously affecting the waterways of southern Australia, have gone up to 75mph. Earlier this week, Sydney saw A MONTH'S WORTH OF RAIN IN JUST ONE DAY. Although the ferries which hundreds of commuters rely on have kept running, they have provided rocky rides for those brave enough to keep travelling on them. Waves have reached 5m off the area's coast.
These winds are part of a pattern of UNUSUAL weather throughout the Australian winter. 25 people died in floods which have raged throughout the winter. The winds are just the latest in a long-running bout of extreme weather. A climate change researcher at Oxfam said: 'The Earth is delivering a message to us. And the message is that more extreme weather is becoming the norm rather than the exception.' (video)

Sunday, July 24, 2011

Chile hit by 'white earthquake' of heavy snow - The heavy snow has blanketed parts of Chile leading the government to declare a "disaster area" in eight municipalities where around 16000 people were left isolated. Temperatures plunged to as low as -23 C (-9.4F) in some rural areas as severe snowfall wreaked havoc, leaving people without food supplies, mobile phone signals or radio communications. The governor of the province of Cautin said that from Sunday to Wednesday IN FOUR DAYS THE AREA HAD SEEN "FOUR MONTHS WORTH OF SNOWFALL."
In the town of Lonquimay, around 350 miles south of the capital Santiago, more than 6,500 people were trapped in their homes after snow piled up to 2.3 metres (7ft 6ins), while in surrounding rural areas it was reported to have reached 9ft. The sub-zero temperatures froze pipes leaving many residents without water while even fuel in car's petrol tanks had become frozen.

**Speaking the truth in times of universal deceit
is a revolutionary act.**
George Orwell


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE

Yesterday -
7/23/11 -
6.4 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.0 GUAM REGION
5.4 GUAM REGION
5.3 ALASKA PENINSULA
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.5 SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA

7/22/11 -
5.6 GUAM REGION
5.2 WEST CHILE RISE
5.0 NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA
5.0 ALASKA PENINSULA
6.0 FIJI REGION

Canary Islands government monitors El Hierro earthquake swarm - The Canary Islands Government has said it is monitoring an earthquake swarm on the small island of El Hierro where in excess of 400 tremors of low magnitude have been recorded in the past four days.
On Friday, the Ministry of Economy, Finance and Government Security Canary convened the first ever meeting of the Steering Committee and Volcanic Monitoring, reflected in the Specific Plan Protection Civil and Emergency for Volcanic Risk, given what it described “the significant increase in seismic activity”.
“According to data provided by the seismic monitoring station IGN’s located in Valverde, one can conclude that from noon on July 17 there has been a significant increase of low magnitude seismic activity in the municipality of Border of the island of El Hierro."
El Hierro, a 278.5 km2 island, is situated in the most southwestern extreme of the Canaries. The origins of the island date back some 100 million years. After three successive eruptions, and consequent accumulations, the island emerged from the ocean as an imposing triangular pyramid crowned by a volcano more than 2,000 metres high. The volcanic activity, principally at the convergence of the three ridges, resulted in the continual expansion of the island. A mere 50,000 years ago, as a result of seismic tremors which produced massive landslides, a giant piece of the island cracked off, crashed down into the ocean and scattered along the seabed. This landslide of more than 300km3 caused a tsunami that most likely rose over 100 metres high and probably reached as far as the American coast.
“Although over 200 years have elapsed since the last eruption, El Hierro has the largest number of volcanoes in the Canaries with over 500 open sky cones, another 300 covered by the most recent outflows, and some 70 caves and volcanic galleries, notably the Don Justo cave whose collection of channels surpasses 6km in length.” (maps)

VOLCANOES -

ALASKA - Aleutian volcano showing signs of impending eruption. Based on satellite data showing "thermal anomalies," the Alaska Volcano Observatory has issued an eruption advisory for Cleveland Volcano, located in the Aleutian Chain about 45 miles west of Nikolski and about 150 miles west of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor. The advisory means the volcano could erupt at any moment with little further warning. The volcano lacks a seismic network, so observers are monitoring it as best they can via satellite, but if it blows, it could disrupt major air traffic routes. The volcano's most recent significant eruption began in February, 2001 and it produced 3 explosive events that produced ash clouds as high as 12 km (39,000 ft) above sea level and produced a rubbly lava flow and hot avalanche that reached the sea.

Lava only a few yards away from overflowing Pu'u O'o Volcano in Hawaii - The active Pu'u O'o vent on the east rift of Hawaii's Kilauea volcano is just about to overflow. The lava lake within the Halema'uma'u Overlook vent dropped for a few days last weekend, in tandem with a brief deflation of Kilauea's summit.

Volcano eruption continues in E. Russia - Plumes of ash and hot gas jetting out of Kizimen volcano on Russian Kamchatka Peninsula have spread more than 15 km eastward as eruption continues. Giant columns of steam and ash shot up to 500 meters above the crater.

Local tourism feels full brunt of Chilean volcano - The 100 million tonnes of pyroclastic ash and rock spewed by an Andean volcano has meant hundreds of millions of dollars in losses for communities more accustomed to profiting from the dramatic mountain landscape. Airline-industry losses may top $50 million.

TROPICAL STORMS -
-Tropical storm DORA LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER COLD PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE COAST O F MEXICO.

Ma-On Rains Put Japan On Flood And Landslide Alert - Japanese officials have blamed Tropical Storm Ma-on for more than 50 injuries and at least one death on Friday. Authorities warned residents to remain alert for floods and landslides as Ma-on moved off.

A potential cyclone expected to enter Philippine territory early next week is not likely to make landfall and may head for Taiwan instead.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Heatwave breaks records in parts of US and Canada - The mercury in Newark, New Jersey, reached 108F (42C) on Friday, the HIGHEST EVER RECORDED IN THE CITY. In Canada, an extreme heat alert remained in effect, a day after two dozen cities and towns broke their previous single-day heat records. At least 22 deaths have been blamed on the heat.
Across the US alone, where nearly half of the population was under a heat advisory, more than 220 heat records have tumbled. Airports near Washington and Baltimore hit 40.5C (105F); Boston 39.5C (103F); Portland, Maine, and Concord, New Hampshire, 38.5C (101F); and Providence, Rhode Island, 38C (100F).
Philadelphia - where bathers at public swimming pools were asked to leave every half hour to allow a new crowd to enjoy a cooling dip - saw temperatures of 40C (104F). New York City also hit 40C, just a degree short of its all-time high, although with the oppressive humidity, it felt like 45C (113F). Several hundred homes and businesses in New York were hit with temporary blackouts. Voltage was reduced in several neighbourhoods in the city and suburbs to keep underground cables from overheating.
On Friday, the medical examiner's office in Chicago listed heat stress or heat stroke as the cause of death for seven people. An 18-year-old landscape gardener who died on Thursday night in Louisville, Kentucky, had a temperature of 43C (110F). In Canada, temperature records were broken in two dozen cities across Ontario and Quebec on Thursday, including THE HOTTEST EVER JULY TEMPERATURE IN TORONTO, at 37.9C (100.2F). Officials in the central state of Missouri say 13 people have died, and there have also been fatalities in neighbouring Oklahoma, including a three-year-old boy. In the south, more than three-quarters of Texas is suffering from drought amid the worst dry spell in the state for decades. "This is an exceptionally strong ridge of high pressure that really has an exceptional scope and duration."

SPACE WEATHER -

ELECTRON WARNING: - Analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab report elevated levels of energetic electrons around Earth. This is caused by the high-speed solar stream now blowing around our planet. Spacecraft with orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt could be affected by these charged particles.

Friday, July 22, 2011

200 million years ago, half the world died from a massive methane eruption - A little over 200 million years ago, when Earth had only one mega-continent called Pangaea, fifty percent of life in the oceans died abruptly. Researchers long believed that this event, called the End-Triassic mass extinction, might have been caused by intense volcanic activity as Pangaea broke into two smaller continents. But a new study suggests that the ocean deaths were caused by "a massive release of carbon into the atmosphere, followed by rapid climate change." Earth scientists examined ancient plant fossils, and based on their molecular analysis it appears that "at least 12,000 gigatons of methane was injected into the atmosphere over just 10- to 20,000 years of the end-Triassic extinction."
This kind of methane release, in the present day, is exactly what environmental scientists have been warning us about for years. If temperatures rise slightly higher than they are now, it might be enough to melt frozen methane at the bottom of the oceans, thus releasing the kind of gas mega-bubbles that may have ended so many lives at the end of the Triassic era. The findings may help scientists plan ahead, since humans could potentially contribute 5,000 gigatons of carbon or more to the atmosphere if we were to burn all of our known fossil fuel reserves. So if history is any guide, humans' injection of carbon into the atmosphere might ultimately kill off half of all ocean life - or more.

**Everybody talks about the weather
but nobody does anything about it.**
Mark Twain


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
6.0 FIJI REGION

Yesterday -
7/21/11 -
5.1 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.4 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION
5.2 SOUTH OF TONGA
5.3 ZAMBIA
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
-Final Warning was issued for TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (MA-ON) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN.

-HURRICANE DORA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

-TROPICAL STORM CINDY MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC.

-BRET HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAR OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Heat-wave spreads across central and eastern US - A punishing heat-wave has settled over central and eastern parts of the US, pushing temperatures as high as 37C (99F) and causing up to 22 deaths. The National Weather Service warned of "dangerous" levels of heat and humidity creeping east, with no relief expected in eastern states until Sunday.
AS MUCH AS 50% OF THE US POPULATION WAS UNDER A HEAT ADVISORY. Meteorologists have put the temperatures down to a "dome" of high pressure in the atmosphere. On Thursday, many regions in the central US and parts of the eastern seaboard also saw heat indexes - a combination of temperature and humidity - topping 43C. "This is AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG ridge of high pressure that really has AN EXCEPTIONAL SCOPE AND DURATION. "The air is sinking, as it sinks it compresses and gets warmer." It also dries out, so few clouds form to block the high early-summer sun.
Meanwhile, asphalt and concrete pavements and buildings in cities were "re-radiating" the heat. "There's no good place to be."
Heat is the number one weather-related killer in the US, according to the National Weather Service. In the town of Hutchinson in Kansas three elderly people were found dead in separate homes on Wednesday, while the body of a woman in her 80s was found in her bedroom in the nearby state of Missouri. In Minnesota - a northern state known for its frigid winters - farm livestock have been DYING FROM HEAT STRESS AT A RATE NOT SEEN IN THREE DECADES. Turkeys were hit especially hard. In South Dakota, as many as 1,500 head of cattle have died in the heat.
Scattered power cuts were likely in New York in the next several days amid a surge in usage of air conditioning units. Chicago was experiencing unhealthy smog levels caused by the heat. The Illinois Environmental Protection Agency asked the city's residents to reduce polluting activities, such as mowing lawns and keeping the engines running on stationary vehicles. Forecasters said the damage caused by the heat could be worse that that brought about by a heat-wave in Chicago in 1995, when more than 700 people died over three days. The most severe heat-wave in modern North American history took place during the Great Depression in 1936. The heat that summer was blamed for more than 5,000 deaths in the US and Canada.
Meanwhile, as half of the country's 310 million residents sizzle, states in the north-western region of the country were experiencing ABNORMALLY COOL TEMPERATURES. "I didn't know it could be this cold in July. It is absolutely freezing here in Seattle." During the past month, Seattle has only experienced three days with temperatures hitting the 27C (80F) mark, with most days falling in the mid-60s.
Record-breaking temperatures were expected in the eastern US Friday and Saturday, and forecasters say THE HEAT IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO AUGUST. Vast amounts of warmth and moisture have become trapped under a huge “heat dome,” bringing record-breaking temperatures and thick, topical air to scores of cities from North Dakota to the Ohio Valley.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Climate change 'threatens peace', UN official warns. - Crises such as that in Somalia could be far worse as a result of climate change. Climate change poses a major threat to future peace and security, a senior UN official has warned. He said climate change would also "exponentially" increase the scale of natural disasters. His comments followed a UN declaration of famine in parts of Somalia.
Meanwhile, Russia rejected a Security Council statement backed by Western nations which asserted the link, but later agreed to a weaker text. The Russian envoy said he was sceptical about the implications of putting climate change on the security council's agenda. Security Council members finally agreed to a text which spoke of the "possible security implications" of climate change.
An increase in the frequency of natural disasters across the globe could prove a major challenge in the coming decades. Recent crises, such as in Somalia, illustrate that "our capacity to handle these kinds of events is proving a challenge, particularly if they occur simultaneously and start affecting, for instance, global food markets, regional food security issues, displacing people, creating refugees across borders. Clearly the international community - if the scenarios in climate change for the future come true - will face an expediential growth of these kinds of extreme events." More than 10 million people have been affected by the crisis across east Africa.
His comments came as the Security Council formally debated the environment for the first time in four years, with Germany pressing for the first-ever council statement linking climate change to global peace and security.
Diplomats said there were intense negotiations between Germany and Russia, which initially opposed any council action, before a statement on the issue was agreed to. The Russian envoy argued that the move was unnecessary and opposed by many countries. "We believe that involving the Security Council in a regular review of the issue of climate change will not bring any added value whatsoever and will merely lead to further increased politicisation of this issue and increased disagreements between countries."
However, the US Ambassador said that the council had an "essential responsibility to address the clear-cut peace and security implications of a changing climate" and said all countries should be demanding action. She also called failed attempts to reach consensus earlier in the day "pathetic" and "shortsighted".
The final statement expressed "concern that possible adverse effects of climate change may, in the long run, aggravate certain existing threats to international peace and security". It also requested the UN Secretary-General to include information on possible climate change impacts in his regular reports on global trouble-spots. The council had failed to agree on whether climate change was an issue of world peace in 2007, when Britain brought up the issue.

**If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.**


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

Yesterday -
7/20/11 -
6.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.3 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.3 SOUTH OF PANAMA

Uzbekistan quake killed at least 13 - The 6.2 quake killed at least 13 people and wounded dozens as it tore down old houses in a remote border region in Central Asia's volatile Fergana Valley. The quake struck at 1:35 am (1935 GMT Tuesday).

VOLCANOES -

Alert level raised for volcano in Alaska's Aleutian Islands - The alert level for an Alaska volcano is being raised after officials say PERSISTENT THERMAL ANOMALIES have been spotted in satellite data. The Alaska Volcano Observatory on Wednesday raised the level Cleveland Volcano to advisory from unassigned. .There is no real-time seismic network at the volcano, located 939 miles southwest of Anchorage on an uninhabited island. Officials are not able to track local earthquake activity related to volcanic unrest. Short-lived explosions with ash clouds or plumes exceeding 20,000 feet above sea level are frequent on Cleveland. It last showed signs of unrest last summer, with a small ash emission and lava flows on its upper flanks. The observatory says the last significant eruption of the volcano began in February 2001 and eventually produced a lava flow that reached the ocean.

TROPICAL STORMS -
-CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE 04E (DORA) CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE WESTERN SHORE OF MEXICO. FAST WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TWO DAYS AS DORA EXPLORES THE COLDER WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

-Tropical Storm BRET is weakening in the Atlantic. NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER BRET IS BRUTAL AND DISSIPATION IS NOW EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS.

-Tropical Storm CINDY is A LITTLE STRONGER AND MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. CINDY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SAME STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BE CAUSING TROPICAL STORM BRET TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD.

-TROPICAL STORM 08W (MA-ON) was LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Deadly Heat Wave Moves Toward Northeast U.S. - A blistering, eastern-moving band of heat hovering over the Plains and southern United States has killed two dozen people this week, and forecasters expect it to scorch the Northeast in the coming days.

Climate Reality Project - Al Gore is turning to the intersection of digital media and extreme weather to launch a new social movement around fighting climate change. It’s called the Climate Reality Project, and the first event will live stream content that shows how extreme weather has affected people’s lives. The event will take place on September 14 and 15. The 24-7 Internet and news cycle of extreme weather events, combined with social media, could potentially finally offer the spark needed for a green web movement around fighting climate change.

End of the world or just a bit too hot? - This week, the temperature in central Russia reached +37° Celsius. Weather forecasts for the next few days don’t promise temperatures lower than +33° C. Yakutia is a region in Siberia which is known for its severe winters and short but very hot summers. However, this summer, Yakuts saw an ABSOLUTE RECORD OF HEAT - +38.4° C. The heat caused forest fires all over the region, which, in spite of all the firemen’s brave efforts, have not been fully put out yet.
Still, it is even hotter in central and eastern states of the US – nearly +40° C, and the heat is threatening to hit Washington and New York. But Canada can “boast” of BREAKING EVEN THIS RECORD – at daytime, the temperature there exceeds + 40° C. In the US, the heat is also dramatized by excessive humidity. Moreover, frequent thunderstorms in some states have already killed 13 people in the last week.
At the same time, southern and western China is hit by showers and storms. Since the beginning of June, about 500 people in these regions have been killed or are missing. About 3 million people have been evacuated from the zone of the calamity. Last weekend, the airport in Beijing, which is, by the way, the world’s largest one, had to postpone several hundred flights. Summer rains and floods are not rare in China, but this year’s disaster is UNPRECEDENTED.
Some experts explain all these cataclysms with the global warming. The Deputy Director of the Russian state weather service does not agree with this: “We still cannot fully explain these phenomena, but, I believe, there is nothing supernatural in them. As for the global warming, we still have no sufficient proof that all these hurricanes and typhoons are really provoked by the warming...We explain this by the natural climatic volatility of atmospheric processes. Any other explanations sound like fiction. Some hold that global warning increases the repetition and intensity of such dangerous weather phenomena as heat waves, hurricanes and typhoons. But so far, there is no convincing proof that the above processes are interrelated." He is sure that for all the heat of this summer, it will not break last year’s records. True, it is really hard to beat last summer’s heat record of + 38.2° C – something which has NEVER BEFORE BEEN REGISTERED FOR THE WHOLE 130-YEAR HISTORY of weather service in Russia.

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Four months on, Japan's nuclear plant stabilised. - The plant is on track for a cold shutdown within six months. Workers have toiled in hot and harsh conditions to stabilise the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant since the March 11 earthquake and tsunami destroyed reactor cooling systems, triggering partial meltdowns of the reactors and making the disaster the world's worst nuclear crisis since Chernobyl. The assessment of reactor stability yesterday was based on several milestones: temperatures at the bottom of reactor pressure vessels are no longer climbing, a makeshift system to process contaminated water works properly after initial problems and nitrogen injections are helping prevent more explosions. Radiation around the plant has shown a "sufficient decrease" from peak levels measured soon after the disaster, according to the report released by the government and TEPCO, the plant's operator.
"THE ACCIDENT HAS NOT BEEN RESOLVED, but we have been making progress steadily. We will continue our utmost effort so that we can bring this to an end as soon as possible." The work now shifts into a second stage, when workers will aim to further cut radiation released into the air, soil and water. They expect a cold shutdown sometime in January. A reactor reaches cold shutdown when the temperature at the bottom of the reactor pressure vessel drops below 100C, and when the release of radioactive materials is "under control."
Still, growing worries about radiation in Japan's beef supply underscore the widespread impact of the nuclear accident. The central government has instructed Fukushima to suspend shipment of all beef cows raised in the prefecture. The move comes amid a growing tally of cows - now about 650 - that were fed radiation-tainted rice straw that had been sitting outside since the March 11 disaster and then shipped nationwide. Some of the meat has already reached consumers. Fukushima officials have said they did not properly inform farmers to avoid using feed stored outdoors. Cesium levels exceeding the legal limit has been detected in beef samples in three cities.

**Don't judge a book by its cover.**


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
7/19/11 -
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
6.2 KYRGYZSTAN
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 IONIAN SEA
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.3 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

VOLCANOES -

Mount Etna Erupts, Sixth Time This Year - Etna, located on the Italian island of Sicily, is erupting in spectacular fashion. The eruptions have closed the local airport for several hours. (photos)

INDONESIA - Sulawesi Volcano Eruption Interrupts Education of Thousands. Thousands of children living near the volcano have been unable to attend classes this week due to eruptions, earthquakes and elevated danger levels stemming from nearby Mount Lokon. Mount Lokon experienced its biggest eruption on Sunday with huge clouds of ash propelled 3,500 meters into the sky. More than 5,200 people have been evacuated to temporary shelters since the volcano first erupted on July 10 and its alert status was placed at the highest level.

A dense plume of ash, gas and water vapor has been erupting from the Nabro volcano in the East African nation of Eritrea since June 12. The eruption killed seven people. A photo taken June 29 shows lava flowing from the summit and running down the mountain's slope. Because of the volcano's remote location, satellite images and data have provided most of the information about this eruption. Lately the volcano has been less explosive, but continues to ooze lava.
The Nabro volcano had not erupted in recorded human history, "but lava flows near the volcano are relatively recent geologically. Nabro is part of the very active East African Rift, where three tectonic plates are pulling away from each other. As the Earth’s crust thins in the region, volcanoes rise in weak spots."

Scientists in Vanuatu have kept the eruption hazard warning at level one for the Ambae volcano but caution last week’s explosions were UNUSUALLY POWERFUL. Three large blasts a little over a week ago have provided data that can now be used to more closely predict further eruptions. The frequency and power of volcanic activity have not changed dramatically in the days since then. “What’s happened the last time is it’s the first time we witness a very strong explosion like this and we didn’t have so much experience about precursors as the first signal from this kind of activity so now we could take this event and we could follow up this same kind of signal that we witnessed the last time.” People need to be prepared as the situation could change very quickly. Ash has affected crops and some water supplies.

TROPICAL STORMS -
-HURRICANE 04E (DORA) was located off the southwest coast of Mexico. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING A POTENTIAL THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA.

-TROPICAL STORM BRET MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA.

-TROPICAL STORM 08W (MA-ON) was LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN.

Dozens injured as Typhoon Ma hits Japanese coastline - Typhoon Ma hit Japan early this morning, injuring dozens as it crossed the southern part of Tokushima prefecture on Shikoku. Torrential rain and lashing winds from the typhoon injured at least 47 people in 15 prefectures, while another person was reported missing and public transportation was disrupted. The typhoon had been downgraded to a tropical storm by the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
But as of 8:30am Australian time today, as the typhoon moved north-northeast, it was still packing winds of up to 120kph near its center. Tthe Japan Meteorological Agency had previously warned that northeastern Japan, already devastated by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, and the Hokuriku region facing the Sea of Japan could also experience heavy rain as the typhoon moves forward. In preparation, Tokyo Electric Power Company workers installed a temporary cover over a building at its crippled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant to shield it from wind and rain.

Tropical Storm Dora strengthened in the eastern Pacific and has become a hurricane, while Bret weakened in the Atlantic on a course out to sea.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

The UN is set to declare a famine in parts of Somalia, as humanitarian conditions deteriorate amid THE WORST DROUGHT IN OVER HALF A CENTURY.

Heat-wave kills 13 people across US heartland - The National Weather Service put 18 states stretching from Montana to Texas to West Virginia under a heat warning, watch or advisory, with the heat index topping 38C (100F) in most locations. The heat is expected to move east in the next several days. MORE THAN 1,000 US HEAT RECORDS HAVE BEEN BROKEN THIS MONTH.
Though many US states have recently seen temperatures over 90F, some regions saw heat indexes - a combination of air temperature and relative humidity - up to 131F.
Knoxville, Iowa: 131
Freeport, Illinois: 124
Hutchinson, Minnesota: 123
Watertown, Wisconsin: 119
Tekamah, Nebraska: 117
The National Weather Service said a stagnant air mass on the central plains was causing the extended heat-wave, which has plagued swathes of the US for nearly a week. The US Border Patrol said high temperatures were also responsible for a spike in deaths of illegal immigrants trying to cross the border from Mexico. Roads in Oklahoma [and Minnesota] were reported to be cracking due to the heat, while dozens of the state's residents have required medical treatment in the past several days. On Monday, Oklahoma experienced its 28th day of triple-digit temperatures this year.
An extreme drought that has also afflicted several south-west states in recent weeks caused water-main ruptures to quadruple in Oklahoma City to up to 20 per day. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, Illinois baked in temperatures that soared over 110F, while the town of Knoxville in Iowa experienced heat indexes over 130F. Residents in Minnesota, a mostly temperate state, saw heat indexes reach 123F. NOAA released data in June showing that temperatures had risen across the US by roughly 1.5F during the past 30 years. Forecasters said UNUSUAL HEAT would continue to through to the end of the month. Heat is responsible for killing 162 people in the US on average each year. (map)

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Heat wave scorches central United States - A stifling heat wave in the nation's midsection intensified on Monday, closing government buildings that lacked air-conditioning and prompting warnings to residents to keep as cool as possible. The National Weather Service put 18 states stretching from North Dakota to Texas and east to Ohio under a heat warning, watch or advisory. It said as many as 13 deaths in the past week in the Midwest may be blamed on the effects of the heat. When humidity was factored in, the heat index made it feel as hot as 110 degrees in a broad swath of the nation.
"This is UNUSUAL" said a spokesman for the Weather Service. "There's no sugar-coating anything here." The extreme drought afflicting the U.S. Southwest in recent weeks has caused water main breaks to quadruple in Oklahoma City to up to 20 a day. In Minneapolis, the Minnesota Twins and the Cleveland Indians began a day-night doubleheader, while taking precautions as the heat index crawled above 100. Ironically, the teams were making up an April contest that was postponed because of extreme cold and rain. "How about that? The afternoon game here in 100-plus heat index is the makeup game to a game that we had to rain out in 45-degree spitting rain. Only in Minnesota can we go to those extremes, but that is the name of the game here."
The heat was building in Chicago, Illinois, where temperatures were expected to peak later this week. The city learned a lesson during a blistering 1995 heat wave blamed for the deaths of as many as 800 people, many of them elderly in homes without air conditioning. "That was a really rare event. We're definitely going to see heat and humidity, but that was an unprecedented event." The city took precautions such as opening cooling centers. Other cities echoed warnings and braced for what could be a week or more of high temperatures.
Des Moines, Iowa, was experiencing its MOST PROLONGED HEAT WAVE IN 20 YEARS. Excessive heat was forecast to bake the United States from the heartland to the Carolinas - excluding parts of the Northeast and southern Florida - through July 29.
Persistent high temperatures were particularly dangerous to residents not accustomed to the combination of heat and humidity. Air-conditioning may be the rule in southern states, but many homes in the northern Plains and Midwest do not have it. Overnight temperatures were not expected to dip low enough to offer a reprieve.
"When you have high humidity, the body's ability to cool down is limited." In Texas, where a drought has withered crops and sparked wildfires, wildlife rescuers noted adult deer were abandoning their fawns because they were unable to feed them.

**Politeness is to human nature what warmth is to wax.**
Arthur Schopenhauer


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.1 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.5 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.3 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

Yesterday -
7/18/11 -
5.2 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.4 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.0 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.2 NORTHWEST OF KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.2 TAIWAN REGION
5.0 NEGROS, PHILIPPINES

VOLCANOES -

Two fresh eruptions at Indonesia's Mount Lokon - Indonesia's Mount Lokon, which is located on the northern tip of the island of Sulawesi, on Monday erupted twice, as thousands of residents have been forced to evacuate the area. The eruptions show high and unpredictable activity from the volatile mountain, experts said. The second blast at Mount Lokon was the larger of the two.

TROPICAL STORMS -
-TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA) was located in the Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, heading northwest in the direction of Baja, California.

- TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) was LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN.

-TROPICAL STORM BRET was located in the Atlantic Ocean, off the east coast of Florida.

Tropical storm Bret is slowly swirling northeast of the Bahamas while rainfall, cloud cover and storms still impact Abaco and parts of the northern and central Bahamas. Meteorologists are tracking the storm as it moves at three miles per hour. Bret is growing stronger as it swirls in the Atlantic Ocean, but is forecast to stay away from the US East Coast. July 18, the U.S. National Hurricane Center reported that Bret had maximum sustained winds of 50 miles (85 kilometers) per hour with higher gusts.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

CANADA - Storm collapses stage at Ottawa Bluesfest injuring 5. A severe storm hit the large venue of Bluesfest on Sunday while the band Cheap Trick was on stage. The musicians were knocked off of their feet, but were not among the 5 that were injured. (video showing the stage topple)

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

GEORGIA - Rains keep wildfire just shy of 300,000 acres. A vast wildfire burning since April in the Okefenokee Swamp smoldered just shy of 300,000 acres Monday after weekend rains slowed its growth, and authorities said they expect little relief from the tropical storm churning off the Atlantic coast.

CANADA - Residents in southwestern Ontario expected hot, sticky conditions to continue Monday, after soaring temperatures reached RECORD-BREAKING levels over the weekend. Torontonians expected a daytime high of 30 degrees Celsius.

HEALTH THREATS -

AUSTRALIA is in the grip of a grim flu outbreak, with the number of influenza cases four times higher than a year ago. Experts believe the rise could be linked to the sudden deluge of wet weather and floods earlier this year when there was an UNUSUALLY high number of flu cases recorded. Wet conditions were ideal for flu virus to survive, with people crowding indoors and not getting as much of immune system-boosting Vitamin D because of a lack of sun exposure. Particularly high rates of influenza have hit NSW, Queensland and South Australia with the H1N1 virus (popularly known as swine flu) and influenza B the most common strains.
Figures from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System show 7931 cases of influenza have been confirmed nationally so far this year, about four times higher than the 1989 cases recorded between January and July 2010. The number of flu cases seen around the time of the floods in early 2011 were significantly higher than in 2010. Since May alone, the number of cases have leapt by more than 200 per cent. There were 2454 cases recorded in June and there have been 1345 so far for July. More increases were likely to be on the way as Australia heads into its traditional peak flu season of August to October. While there has been a sharp rise in flu cases this year, it is not a pandemic because no new strain of the influenza virus has been detected. It is estimated that influenza and its associated complications kill about 2500 Australians a year.

Monday, July 18, 2011

**Cities have always been the fireplaces of civilization,
whence light and heat radiated out into the dark.**
Theodore Parker


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 NEGROS, PHILIPPINES

Yesterday -
7/17/11 -
5.2 OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND

CALIFORNIA - Water mains broke in Berkeley and Richmond soon after the 3:51 am earthquake on Saturday morning, which was centered in Berkeley.
'Citizen seismologists' needed for Quake Catcher network - Thousands of Bay Area residents are needed to set up matchbox-sized earthquake monitors in their homes, offices and classrooms to help scientists better understand the nature of quakes. Although single sensors cannot tell whether a tiny shake is an earthquake or simply a truck driving by a home, hundreds of linked sensors could.

VOLCANOES -

HAWAII - Like the witches' cauldron in “MacBeth,” Kilauea Volcano continued to burn and bubble Saturday, maintaining two lava lakes.

Twelve massive underwater volcanoes discovered in Atlantic Ocean - Navigating the ocean water depths of the remote South Sandwich Islands near Antarctica, scientists have discovered a chain of massive underwater volcanoes that stand thousands of feet above the ocean floor.

TROPICAL STORMS -
-TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) is LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN.

-TROPICAL STORM BRET was located off the coast of Florida. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. The forecasted path takes the storm out in the Atlantic, posing no threat to the U.S. coast.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

U.S. - Extreme heat wave to spread across Chicago, U.S.; drought conditions to worsen. You know it's bad when you see magenta shadings that represent Excessive Heat Warnings in northern North Dakota and Minnesota. The dome of intense heat has expanded and will continue to expand over the Lower 48 over the next several days. Currently, as many as 13 states that stretches nearly 1,400 miles from as far north as International Falls, Minnesota south to Temple, Texas are under some type of heat advisory. High pressure systems with intense heat usually migrate further east than normal across the country during this time of year, but not as expansive especially towards the north like this.
Temperatures in the 90s and 100s will occur on a daily basis across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, regions not used to that type of heat. These are also regions there is plenty of vegetation, specifically corn, also known as the Corn Belt Region. Humidity levels in these areas will be sent through the roof thanks to a process called evapotranspiration. Water within plants/vegetation changes to water vapor that is released into the atmosphere increasing humidity levels. According to the USGS, 10% of moisture in the atmosphere comes from plants through transpiration. Humidity levels could reach in to the 80s across this region. Combine that with the intense heat and heat indices will soar to near 115 degrees.
Record-breaking to near record breaking temperatures occured with heat indices that ranged from 105 to 115 degrees across many locations this weekend. With the month of July at the midway point, there have already been 882 RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES tied or set across the Lower 48 states. Models indicate that this is only the beginning as the heat and humidity will continue until at least the end of July.
Not only will the heat be an issue over the next couple of weeks, but the worsening drought conditions. The latest release from the U.S. Drought Monitor showed 29 percent of the country in a drought, mainly across the southern tier states, with 12 percent of the country in exceptional drought, the LARGEST EXTENT ON RECORD (though records only go back to 2000).
Of all states, drought conditions continued to be most extensive and intense in Texas, with 72 percent of the state in exceptional drought. But drought conditions have rapidly expanded in Oklahoma, where exceptional drought now covers 40 percent of the state, a marked 10 percent increase from last week. Currently, the extreme drought conditions cover 20% of the nation. Rain is possible in the coming days over these drought-stricken areas as the powerful heat ridge complex shifts into the Upper Midwest this weekend into early next week.

HEALTH THREATS -

An enigmatic disease named "nodding syndrome" is crippling children across the new country of South Sudan, but no one knows why. Rural villages in the newly liberated African nation of South Sudan are struggling to cope with the relatively new and little understood illness. The disease, first identified in 1962, has been popping up with increasing frequency in the past few years, afflicting thousands of children across three African countries (the other two being Uganda and Tanzania) with severe neurological and physical symptoms. But scientists can't conclusively say much about the ailment.