Wednesday, February 29, 2012

**Three things can't be hidden:
coughing, poverty, and love.**
Yiddish proverb


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS

Yesterday -
2/28/12 -
5.1 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.4 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS
5.5 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

Moderate quake jolts east Iran, 6 hurt - A magnitude 5.4 quake hit a sparsely populated area at 10 pm on Monday. It damaged buildings, roads, and water canals as well as the nearby dam in the town of Ravar, some 750 kilometers southeast of the capital Tehran. A magnitude 4.6 quake hit late on Tuesday and a 4.7 hit early today.

'Devil's chain reaction' was feared after 2011 Japan quake - Recovery workers at Japan's crippled Fukushima nuclear plant still fear for the future, one year after the country's worst ever nuclear accident. The Former Japanese Prime Minister ordered workers to stay at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant after the massive earthquake and tsunami on March 11 last year as fears mounted of a "devil's chain reaction" that would force tens of millions of people to flee Tokyo, a new investigative report shows. About three days after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, his staff began referring to a worst case scenario that could threaten Japan's existence as a nation. That was when fears mounted that thousands of spent fuel rods stored at a damaged reactor would melt and spew radiation after a hydrogen explosion at an adjacent reactor building. Japan's then top government spokesman said that at the height of tension he feared a "devil's chain reaction" in which the Fukushima Daiichi plant and the nearby Fukushima Daini facility, as well as the Tokai nuclear plant, spiralled out of control, putting the capital at risk.
He stepped down last September as he came under fire for his handling of the crisis, including flying over the plant by helicopter the morning after the disasters hit - a move some critics said contributed to a delay in the operator's response. He was haunted by the spectre of a crisis spiralling out of control and forcing the evacuation of the Tokyo greater metropolitan area, 240km away and home to some 35 million people.
After the quake and tsunami struck, three reactors melted down and radiation spewed widely through eastern Japan, forcing tens of thousands of residents to evacuate from near the plant. Plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co, known as Tepco, managed to avert the worst scenario by pumping water, much of it from the sea, into Daiichi's damaged reactors and spent fuel pools. The reactors were stabilised by December.
A year after the disaster, however, Fukushima Daiichi still resembles a vast wasteland. High radiation levels hamper a cleanup that is expected to take decades. The damaged 40-metre-high No.2 reactor building stands like a bird's nest of twisted steel beams. A Tepco official who accompanied foreign media to the plant on Tuesday said metal debris was being painstakingly removed by giant cranes and pincers as radiation doses were too high for workers. Another challenge is keeping a new cooling system, built from a myriad of technologies and prone to breaking down, running without major glitches. "An earthquake or tsunami like the ones seen a year ago could be a source of trouble for these (cooling) systems. But we are currently reinforcing the spent fuel pool and making the sea walls higher against tsunamis. A series of back up systems is also being put in place in case one fails."
Confused media reports at the time of the accident said Tepco had threatened to withdraw workers from the plant, but that Kan ordered them to keep staff on-site. "Now Tepco is saying there was no request for a complete pullout, that it only asked for a partial withdrawal. The truth may never come out, but as a result, 50 Tepco staff stayed behind and ... the worst case scenario was averted." How many of those who stayed were volunteers is a mystery. "An order was likely given for full-time employees to stay behind. We may eventually find out who volunteered to stay, but the impression from our investigation is that they are under strict orders to remain silent."

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES -

Japan Government quake panel cut tsunami warning from report prior to March 11 - The science ministry's earthquake research panel omitted a warning from a report, eight days before the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami, that a massive tsunami could hit northeastern Japan "at any moment", despite having earlier planned to include it. The Earthquake Research Committee had presented the report eight days before the March 11 disaster to an unofficial meeting among the ministry, Tokyo Electric Power Co. and two other utilities but ended up not publicizing it. Committee members decided to delete the warning as they viewed it "inappropriate to use the same expression" as that used to describe an expected major earthquake in the Tokai region, central Japan, which was regarded "more imminent." Reference to the possible quake in the Pacific off eastern Japan was further weakened at the request of power utilities at the March 3 meeting.
Comprising more than a dozen members, mostly academics, the panel was compiling the report as part of a review of its long-term evaluation on the frequency of big quakes in the region ranging from the Sanriku coast in northeastern Japan to the Boso Peninsula in Chiba Prefecture. The draft report had a new article entitled "from the sea off Miyagi Prefecture to the sea off Fukushima Prefecture" and said a temblor that entails a gigantic tsunami could occur at any moment based on recent research that such tsunami hit the coast four times over the past 2,500 years.But after some membeers argued that such an expression could be linked with the projected Tokai quake, which was said to be 87 percent likely to occur within 30 years, it was weakened to simply noting that a major quake could occur off the Pacific coastline in eastern Japan. References to research having found tsunami-caused sediment at a rate of every 450 to 800 years, and that 500 years had passed since the latest major quake were also deleted. After the March 2011 disaster, the committee under the Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Ministry estimated that the quake, if it were predictable beforehand, was 10 to 20 percent likely to occur within 30 years as of March 11 last year. (photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 14s (Irina) was located approximately 270 nm northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar. Is now intensifying over the Mozambique Channel. Forecasts expect it to move across The Channel and into Mozambique, north of Maputo.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Extreme Weather in Western China Continues - Natural calamities are taking a toll on provinces in western China. In the north, people suffer from severe snowstorms, while southwestern areas are coping with prolonged drought. Cold weather continues to plague the northwestern Xinjiang region of China. Over $900,000 of damage was reported. Barns, houses, and livestock have all fallen victim to the freezing temperatures.
Meanwhile in the southwestern Yunnan province, some villagers haven’t seen rain since last November. Over six million people are affected by the drought. "It's very difficult for our village. If the drought goes on for another two days, we'll have to fetch water from three kilometers (1.86 miles) away and carry it back on our cattle. There's nothing we can do. We don't have a pump to transport water." State media announced on Wednesday that $19 million has been set aside to assist the areas worst hit by the drought. (video)

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

**To love is to suffer. To avoid suffering one must not love.
But then one suffers from not loving.
Therefore to love is to suffer, not to love is to suffer.
To suffer is to suffer. To be happy is to love.
To be happy then is to suffer.
But suffering makes one unhappy.
Therefore, to be unhappy one must love,
or love to suffer,
or suffer from too much happiness.
I hope you're getting this down.**
Woody Allen


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

Yesterday -
2/27/12 -
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.6 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.0 CENTRAL IRAN
5.0 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.3 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.4 KURIL ISLANDS
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.3 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISL., JAPAN
5.1 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

Russia - People evacuated from quake epicenter in Siberia. The powerful earthquake hit Tuva, a region in Siberia, on Sunday. The magnitude was 6 to 7 points, but no casualties have been reported. The quake was felt in some other Siberian regions as well.
After the quake, 550 facilities in Tuva have been found potentially dangerous, including houses in the area where the quake was most powerful. People were being evacuated from the most dangerous houses and placed in shelters. The personnel of Sayano-Shushenskaya hydropower plant in Tuva stopped the power-producing aggregate immediately after the first shocks were felt. 40 minutes after, the aggregate was launched again. Underground shocks are still continuing in Tuva.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

Thailand - Northern provinces warned of tropical storm. The Meteorological Department Monday warned people living in lower northern provinces and northeastern provinces to brace themselves for a possible tropical storm. The department said a moderate high pressure area has covered the upper Thailand and the the South China Sea, and its influence could cause a tropical storm Monday or Tuesday. The high pressure area will also cause the temperature in the North and Northeast to drop by two degrees.

EXTREME HEAT & WET -

Australia - Perth has recorded its second hottest summer on record, its HOTTEST SUMMER IN 34 YEARS and its WETTEST SUMMER IN 12 YEARS. The last time temperatures were so consistently high in Perth was in 1978 and the last time the city had so much rain was in 2000. The heat was mostly due to RECORD WARM surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean. "Our overall average was 25.5C, still 0.6 degrees below the 1978 record mark of 26.C."
Perth's summer rainfall of 118.2mm was nearly four times above the average of 31.3mm, and more than double the 48mm received last summer. "This was primarily due to a wet December when two separate thunderstorm events produced heavy falls across the area." Heading into autumn, Perth was expected to have above average temperatures, but below average rainfall, particularly over the southwest districts, with close to average totals over most other parts of the state.

HEAVY SNOW / COLD / HEAT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Melting Arctic link to cold, snowy UK winters - This winter brought snow as far south as Greece. The progressive shrinking of Arctic sea ice is bringing colder, snowier winters to the UK and other areas of Europe, North America and China, a study shows. As global temperatures have risen, the area of Arctic Ocean covered by ice in summer and autumn has been falling. A US/China-based team says this affects the jet stream and brings cold, snowy weather. Whether conditions will get colder still as ice melts further is unclear.
There was a marked deterioration in ice cover between the summers of 2006 and 2007, which still holds the record for the lowest extent on record; and it has not recovered since. The current winter is roughly tracking the graph of 2007.
The new study is not the first to propose a causal relationship between low Arctic ice in autumn and Europe's winter weather. But it has gone further than others in assessing the strength of the link. "For the past four winters, for much of the northern US, east Asia and Europe, we had this persistent above-normal snow cover. We don't see a predictive relationship with any of the other factors that have been proposed, such as El Nino; but for sea ice, we do see a predictive relationship." If less of the ocean is ice-covered in autumn, it releases more heat, warming the atmosphere. This reduces the air temperature difference between the Arctic and latitudes further south, over the Atlantic Ocean. In turn, this reduces the strength of the northern jet stream, which usually brings milder, wetter weather to Europe from the west. It is these "blocking" conditions that keep the UK and the other affected regions supplied with cold air. The researchers also found that the extra evaporation from the Arctic Ocean makes the air more humid, with some of the additional water content falling out as snow. "Declining Arctic sea ice can drive easterly winds and produce colder winters over Europe."
Small, natural changes in the Sun's output can also affect winter weather. And the declining Arctic ice cover is just one of several factors that could increase blocking. "This is no bigger than the solar effect or the El Nino effect. But they vary, whereas Arctic ice is on a pretty consistent downward trend." The picture is further complicated by the involvement of the Arctic Oscillation, a natural variation of air pressure that also changes northern weather. The oscillation is not understood well enough to predict - and even if it were, any pattern it has may be changing due to escalating greenhouse gas concentrations. Nevertheless, the research suggests that on average, winters in the UK and the rest of the affected region will be colder in years to come than they have been in recent decades.
Various computer simulations have generated a range of dates by which the Arctic might be completely ice-free in summer and autumn, ranging from 2016 to about 2060. A few years ago, one projection even showed 2013 was possible, though this now appears unlikely. "It's possible that future winters will be colder and snowier, but there are some uncertainties." The team's next research project is to feed Arctic ice projections and the mechanisms they have deciphered into various computer models of climate, and see whether they do forecast a growing winter chill.

HEALTH THREATS -

Bird flu, pig flu, now bat flu - FOR THE FIRST TIME, scientists have found evidence of flu in bats, reporting a NEVER-BEFORE-SEEN VIRUS whose risk to humans is unclear. The surprising discovery of genetic fragments of a flu virus is the first well-documented report of it in the winged mammals. So far, scientists haven't been able to grow it, and it's not clear if - or how well - it spreads.
Flu bugs are common in humans, birds and pigs and have even been seen in dogs, horses, seals and whales, among others. About five years ago, Russian virologists claimed finding flu in bats, but they never offered evidence. "Most people are fairly convinced we had already discovered flu in all the possible" animals, said a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention scientist who co-authored the new study. Scientists suspect that some bats caught flu centuries ago and that the virus mutated within the bat population into this new variety. Scientists haven't even been able to grow the new virus in chicken eggs or in human cell culture, as they do with more conventional flu strains.
But it still could pose a threat to humans. For example, if it mingled with more common forms of influenza, it could swap genes and mutate into something more dangerous, a scenario at the heart of the global flu epidemic movie Contagion. Guatemala is where scientists stumbled upon the new virus. It was in the intestines of little yellow-shouldered bats. These bats eat fruit and insects but don't bite people. Yet it's possible they could leave the virus on produce and a human could get infected by taking a bite. It's conceivable some people were infected with the virus in the past. Now that scientists know what it looks like, they are looking for it in other bats as well as humans and other animals.
At least one expert said CDC researchers need to do more to establish they've actually found a flu virus. Technically, what the CDC officials found was genetic material of a flu virus. They used a lab technique to find genes for the virus and amplify it. All they found was a segment of genetic material, said a bird disease researcher. What they should do is draw blood from more bats, try to infect other bats and take other steps to establish that the virus is spreading among the animals. "In my mind, if you can't grow the virus, how do you know that the virus is there?" Work is going on to try to infect healthy bats, but there are other viruses that were discovered by genetic sequencing but are hard to grow in a lab, including hepatitis C.

Monday, February 27, 2012

Russia - East Siberia Quake to Trigger New Series of Tremors says scientist. The 6.8 magnitude earthquake that struck the Tyva republic in Russia's East Siberia on Sunday will trigger a new series of earthquakes in the region, a Russian scientist said. “Judging from the data received from our stations, this is not the continuation of the Tyva earthquake that occurred in late 2011 with its epicenter at the Academician Obruchev Ridge but signals a new series of earthquakes."
The earthquake, the second powerful tremor in East Siberia in the past two months, had its epicenter located 107 km (66 miles) east of the city of Kyzyl near the border with Mongolia, at a depth of 15 km. The earthquake struck at 10:20 a.m. Moscow time (06:20 GMT) with a magnitude of 6 to 7 points in the epicenter. The earthquake caused no casualties or damage, according to preliminary data reported by the Russian Emergencies Ministry. The previous earthquake with a 6.7 magnitude occurred in December 2011 in the Kaa-Khemsky district of Tyva, some 100 km east of the city of Kyzyl, at a depth of 10 km. The tremor caused no destruction or casualties. The next earthquake was expected to strike closer to Lake Baikal. Normally, a fault that becomes active in one area causes a series of decreasing tremors by their magnitude. “In this case, it is most likely that some neighboring fault became active near the previous one. This means that Tyva will now be rattled by two series of earthquakes simultaneously."

**The most wasted day is that in which we have not laughed.**
Chamfort


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.3 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.4 KURIL ISLANDS
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISL., JAPAN
5.0 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

Yesterday -
2/26/12 -
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.4 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.3 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
5.2 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
5.0 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
6.8 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
5.1 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.6 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.9 TAIWAN

Strong earthquake hits Taiwan, causing minor property damage in south - A strong earthquake struck Taiwan on Sunday, causing minor damage in the southern part of the island. There were no immediate reports of casualties and no tsunami warning was issued.

Magnitude 6.8 quake shakes Siberia - Residents of multistory apartment buildings said objects tumbled off of shelves, windows rattled and chandeliers swayed during the quake. The earthquake hit about 60 miles east of Kyzyl.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

United Arab Emirates - Dust storms cause chaos - but cyclone rumour is just hot air. Dust storms battered large parts of the country yesterday, forcing schools to close and halting operations at ports - and sparking rumours of an imminent cyclone. Dozens of minor traffic accidents were reported in low visibility and light rain that swept the northern emirates and parts of Dubai.
The poor weather was responsible for a flurry of online rumours about an impending cyclone, which forecasters rejected as scaremongering. A top trending subject on Twitter was #sandstorm, with many residents sharing a BBM alert that a cyclone would strike at around 1pm. A forecaster at the National Centre for Meteorology and Seismology in Abu Dhabi said the rumour had "no basis in reality. Many people are interested about the weather and they like to make exciting rumours. We are really suffering from these people."
When 1pm came and went without incident, many Twitter users lampooned the prediction. Most of the dust had cleared by yesterday afternoon, but temperatures are expected to remain low for a few days. The dust was part of a large sandstorm that swept over parts of Saudi Arabia at the weekend.
The last time sandstorms hit the country, at the beginning of January, dozens of cruise ships were delayed.
Waves off the north coast were expected to reach four metres and a warning was issued to boat owners to stay onshore. In the Kalba area of Sharjah, sea levels were dangerously high, with water flowing over roads close to the coast. "The Kalba corniche itself is fully flooded with water. One could think it rained heavily, but not a single drop came from heaven. All the water is coming from the sea."
After the 'cyclone', UAE wakes up to earthquake rumors. The National Centre of Meteorology and Seismology (NCMS) has cautioned public against believing rumors of an earthquake in the northern parts of the UAE. In a statement issued on Sunday, the NCMS warned against unofficial predictions spreading through text messages and social networking websites, and urged citizens and residents in the UAE to get weather information only from authorised and reliable sources. On Sunday the dusty, hazy and near-zero-visibility weather has sent social networks into a storm of rumours and scaremongering, even as by Sunday evening the massive sandstrom had lost a lot of its velocity. As the evening approached, the winds died down appreciably letting residents breathe a sigh of relief. Traffic continued to remain terribly slow on most roads in and around Dubai and Sharjah. The weather conditions also forced some schools in Dubai to remain closed on Sunday.

SPACE WEATHER -

Five Solar Eruptions in 2 Days – CME On the Way - The sun produced five eruptions over a two day period. From February 23 through February 24 our sun produced an astonishing five solar eruptions, launched from the top, bottom, left and right sides of the solar disk. Four of those eruptions came in just a 24 hour period. One of the eruptions, a large snaking magnetic filament, erupted during the early hours of February 24 and launched the first of two coronal mass ejections (CME) in Earth’s direction. Though the February 24 solar eruption provided quite a show, the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) that impacted Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 26 around 4:00pm EST (2100 UT) was weak and does not appear set to cause a strong geomagnetic storm. (satellite images)

Sunday, February 26, 2012

Russia - A strong 6.8 magnitude earthquake hit Russia's south-eastern and sparsely populated region of Tuva on Sunday, shaking residents near the Mongolian border from their sleep, but there were no immediate reports of injuries or damage. The epicentre of the quake was some 90km east of the Russian city of Kyzyl in the Tuva region of Siberia. It struck around 0617 GMT (2.17pm Singapore time) at an estimated depth of 11.7km.
It was the second strong quake to rock the region in two months. In December, coal mining operations in Russia's largest coal producing region, the Kuzbass, were suspended when a 6.9 magnitude quake hit near Kyzyl. Residents in Kyzyl's city centre gathered outside as the local emergencies ministry warned of potential aftershocks.

**I hope I shall possess firmness and virtue enough
to maintain what I consider the most enviable of all titles,
the character of an honest man.**
George Washington


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.3 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.0 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
6.8 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
5.7 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.9 TAIWAN

Yesterday -
2/25/12 -
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS
5.2 SAMAR, PHILIPPINES
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 MAUG ISLANDS REG, N. MARIANA IS.

2/24/12 -
5.1 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 MOLUCCA SEA
5.2 NORTHERN COLOMBIA
5.0 LEYTE, PHILIPPINES

Japan's earthquake could bode ill for U.S. Pacific Northwest - Scientists are still unraveling last year's giant earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and some of what they're finding doesn't bode well for the Pacific Northwest. Detailed analyses of the way the Earth warped along the Japanese coast suggest that shaking from a Cascadia megaquake could be stronger than expected along the coasts of Washington, Oregon and British Columbia. "The Cascadia subduction zone can be seen as a mirror image of the Tohoku, (Japan) area."
In Japan, the biggest jolts occurred underwater. The seafloor was displaced by 150 feet or more in some places, triggering the massive tsunami. But in the Northwest, it's the land that will be rocked hardest -- because the Pacific coast here lies so close to the subduction zone. "The ground motions that we have from Tohoku may actually be an indication that there could be much stronger shaking in the coastal areas of British Columbia, Washington and Oregon." Cities like Seattle, Portland and Vancouver, B.C., are far enough from the coast that they might dodge the most violent hammering. But all of the urban areas sit on geologic basins that can amplify ground motion like waves in a bathtub. The U.S. Geological Survey is already at work on a new analysis of how hard the ground is likely to shake and how close the rupture zone might come to urban areas the next time the Cascadia subduction zone really lets loose. The last time was in 1700, and the resulting quake was a magnitude 9 -- just like the monster that struck Japan on March 11, 2010.
Japanese scientists are struggling to answer several haunting questions: Why was the quake so big? How did the tsunami swell to such giant proportions? And why was it such a surprise to the world's most earthquake-savvy nation? Seismologists were fooled by a series of small quakes that rocked the area every 35 years or so. They believed each small quake relieved the pressure on the subduction zone -- the boundary where two geologic plates slip past each other as the ocean floor shoves under the continent. Now they realize strain continues to build until the series of small quakes is punctuated by a giant one about every 700 years. Similar quakes and tsunamis struck in the years 869 and 1896, but Japanese scientists failed to look far enough into their own history.
The longest record for a subduction zone is from Cascadia, where scientists have linked buried marshes and submarine landslides with a series of about 22 megaquake quakes going back 10,000 years. The time between quakes ranges from 200 to 1,000 years, with an average of about 500 years. There's no obvious "supercyle" of supergiant quake in Japan. But it is clear that quakes on Cascadia have varied in size. Some geologists argue the magnitude-9 quake 300 years ago was simply average and that the Northwest has been slammed by quakes twice as big in the distant past. Most earthquake scenarios for the Northwest coast project tsunamis of about 30 feet, and scientists still don't know how much that needs to be ratcheted up post-Tohoku. Walls of water up to 120 feet high washed away entire communities on the Japanese coast. "Does Cascadia also have a 40-meter tsunami coming onshore?"
One emerging theory suggests seafloor topography might be key. Oceanic plates dotted with mountains seem to hang up and slip more frequently as they scrape under continental plates. The result is a series of smaller quakes that occur when segments of the fault break. Giant quakes seem to occur most frequently where the seafloor is smooth and featureless, as off the Northwest coast. With no surface bumps and hills to interfere, the two plates can stick together over vast distances. When they slip, the whole fault breaks at once.
'We've got a billion dollar problem, but we don't have a billion dollars.' - Liquefaction in the recent subduction zone earthquake in Japan caused entire buildings to sink several feet lower than they had been previously. The repercussions of last year’s subduction zone earthquake and tsunami in Japan are now being felt in the Pacific Northwest, as experts and disaster managers better understand the enormous risks facing this region, plan for the challenges ahead and prioritize the most urgent needs.
Before the event, scientists knew that similar concerns faced Oregon, Washington, northern California and British Columbia from the Cascadia Subduction Zone. But they have now seen how such long-lasting events produce soil “liquefaction” far worse than expected, the potential for devastated roads and bridges, a collapsed infrastructure and even threats to their economic future. “Just in Oregon we’ve got a billion dollar problem, but we don’t have a billion dollars. The challenge for Oregon and our neighboring states is to prioritize the concerns, and figure out some way to preserve the most critical lifelines – key roads, airports, port facilities and utility networks. In Japan, nearly 30,000 people died, many in the days after the disaster because no one could reach them. We don’t want that to happen here, and we don’t want our economy to collapse.”
The Japanese event has galvanized some action, but much more remains to be done. It prompted the legislature to call for an Oregon Resilience Plan that will explore many of these issues – an emergency transportation plan, needed seismic upgrades, ways to protect life and public safety and allow a shattered region to rebuild. One of the primary lessons from Japan is the enormous damage done by liquefaction - a continued shaking of the ground that turns soils into mush. In events such as this, it is amplified by the sheer length of the event, an earthquake that can shake not just for 30 seconds but up to five minutes.
Many of the soils in Portland, parts of the Willamette Valley and other areas of Oregon, Washington and California are particularly vulnerable to this phenomenon, , which can magnify the distance and extent of damage. “In Japan, entire structures were tilting and sinking into the sediments, even while they remained intact. The shifts in soil destroyed water, sewer and gas pipelines, crippling the utilities and infrastructure these communities need to function. We saw some places that sank as much as four feet.” The data provided by analyzing the Japanese earthquake is now being used by OSU and others to improve understanding of this soil phenomenon and better prepare for it. Many areas from northern California to British Columbia have younger soils vulnerable to liquefaction - on the coast, near river deposits or in areas with filled ground. The “young” sediments, in geologic terms, may be those deposited within the past 10,000 years or more. In Oregon, for instance, that describes much of downtown Portland, the Portland International Airport, nearby industrial facilities and other cities and parts of the Willamette Valley.
The Oregon Department of Transportation has concluded that 1,100 bridges in Oregon are at risk, and fewer than 15 percent of them have been retrofitted to prevent collapse. Lateral movement is also a concern. “Buildings that are built on soils vulnerable to liquefaction not only tend to sink or tilt during an earthquake, but slide downhill if there’s any slope, like toward a nearby river. This is called lateral spreading. In Portland we might expect this sideways sliding of more than four feet in some cases, more than enough to tear apart buildings and buried pipelines.” Japan had excellent building codes, researchers say, and was far better prepared for this type of earthquake than the U.S. will be. Much of the “legacy” infrastructure in the Pacific Northwest was built before these risks were known. “The disaster in Japan just clarifies what we need to do. And it’s not something we can do in a year or two, but something that will take a decade or two. At stake are the lives of our people and the future of our economy, and that’s something that should matter to every individual.”

VOLCANOES -

Hawaii - An UNUSUAL seismic swarm is occurring near the summit of Kīlauea volcano, Hawai`i, and continued to increase as of Saturday. The Ka`oiki seismic swarm began about 5 km (3 mi) northwest of Halema`uma`u Crater on 21 February and has produced more than 1000 quakes so far. Increased activity overnight included four magnitude 4+ earthquakes amongst more than 70 additional earthquakes in the past 24 hours. 78 earthquakes were strong enough to be located beneath Kilauea in the past day: 74 quakes were related to the earthquake swarm, 2 were within the upper east rift zone, and 2 were on south flank faults.
Some of the quakes were felt at the Hawai`i Volcano Observatory where the shaking caused books fall off shelves, and minor damage was reported at the Volcano Golf Course, which is the closest inhabited area located about 3 km from the earthquakes' epicentre. Many of these earthquakes were widely felt on-island. Swarms in this area typically indicate movement between Mauna Loa and Kīlauea volcanoes unrelated to magma migration, but continued long-term pressurization of Kīlauea's summit complicates the local stress field and may have some bearing on the current seismic activity. Similar swarms have occurred in 1990, 1993, 1997, and 2006, some of which lasted up to several weeks.

Iceland - Katla volcano activity update: Minor earthquake cluster. A cluster of minor earthquakes has been showing up under the Katla volcano caldera. This has been following a gradual increase in seismic activity under Katla during the past few weeks. It could be a signal of new volcanic activity to be expected on a timescale of few weeks to months. A new eruption would probably be heralded by a strong seismic swarm, and could start and build up rapidly. It did so in July 2011 when a sudden increase in earthquake activity occurred and there was an small eruption without warning.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

Friday, February 24, 2012

**Happiness and moral duty are inseparably connected.**
George Washington


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

Yesterday -
2/23/12 -
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.1 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
5.2 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.3 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.2 FIJI REGION

Earth's 'rhythmic throbbing' may lead to extinctions every 60 million years - A mysterious cycle of booms and busts in marine biodiversity over the past 500 million years could be tied to a periodic uplifting of the world's continents. Researchers discovered periodic increases in the amount of the isotope strontium-87 found in marine fossils. The timing of these increases corresponds to previously discovered low points in marine biodiversity that occur in the fossil record roughly every 60 million years. "Strontium-87 is produced by radioactive decay of another element, rubidium, which is common in igneous rocks in continental crust. So, when a lot of this type of rock erodes, a lot more Sr-87 is dumped into the ocean, and its fraction rises compared with another strontium isotope, Sr-86." An uplifting of the continents is the most likely explanation for this type of massive erosion event.
"Continental uplift increases erosion in several ways. First, it pushes the continental basement rocks containing rubidium up to where they are exposed to erosive forces. Uplift also creates highlands and mountains where glaciers and freeze-thaw cycles erode rock. The steep slopes cause faster water flow in streams and sheet-wash from rains, which strips off the soil and exposes bedrock. Uplift also elevates the deeper-seated igneous rocks where the Sr-87 is sequestered, permitting it to be exposed, eroded, and put into the ocean."
The massive continental uplift suggested by the strontium data would also reduce sea depth along the continental shelf where most sea animals live. That loss of habitat due to shallow water could be the reason for the periodic mass extinctions and periodic decline in diversity found in the marine fossil record. "What we're seeing could be evidence of a 'pulse of the earth' phenomenon. There are some theoretical works which suggest that convection of mantle plumes, rather like a lava lamp, should be coordinated in periodic waves." The result of this convection deep inside the earth could be a rhythmic throbbing - almost like a cartoon thumb smacked with a hammer - that pushes the continents up and down. The data suggests that such pulses likely affected the North American continent. The same phenomenon may have affected other continents as well, but more research will be needed to show that.

VOLCANOES -

Hawaii - Scientists at the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory are keeping an eye on a swarm of small earthquakes around the active Kilauea volcano. The swarm of small earthquakes was located about three miles from the summit of Kilauea volcano on the Big Island. More than 60 earthquakes were recorded after 1 am Wednesday.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

Another Tropical Cyclone May Target Madagascar - The southwestern Indian Ocean could see a new tropical cyclone by Sunday. Were a cyclone to form in the area, it could pose a threat to Madagascar, which was dealt a destructive blow by Severe Tropical Giovanna in mid-February. Likewise, the Mascarene Islands, Mauritius and Reunion, could also feel the effects of any cyclone in the area.
The area favorable for development of a tropical cyclone will be a broad swatch of warm tropical ocean well east of northern Madagascar. Once formed, steering winds would then guide the weather system to the west and southwest. Destructive landfall by Giovanna happened shortly after midnight on Feb. 14 near Toamasina, on the east coast of Madagascar. The storm swept inland, unleashing torrential rain and damaging winds in the capital, Antananarivo. (map)
Killer Cyclone Giovanna dumping sediment into Indian Ocean - Throw a 145-mph tropical cyclone accompanied by 10 inches of rain against a low-lying coastline, and you get flooding that New Orleanians can easily understand. The most recent such incident is the horseshoe-shaped path of the Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Giovanna, which made landfall on the narrow east coast plain of Madagascar as a Category 4 storm on Feb. 9. Giovanna cut across the island’s mountainous plateau center before entering the channel separating it from Mozambique, and then curved south and back east around the island’s southern tip, churning back into the Indian Ocean, where it was still producing 30-mph winds Wednesday. Giovanna has killed at least 23 people in Madagascar and left about 190,000 homeless in the last week. The sediment-choked Onibe River on Saturday was delivering a thick plume of sediment to the Indian Ocean, similar to the sediment delivered to the Gulf of Mexico by the rain-swollen Mississippi River last fall. But Madagascar’s narrow range of topography, dropping from 9,436 feet to sea level over just 75 miles, results in fast-moving water picking up huge amounts of mud and debris as Giovanna exited the area. (photo)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

India - Sixteen soldiers killed in avalanches. Two massive avalanches in snowbound regions of Indian-controlled Kashmir have killed at least 16 soldiers, and at least three others were feared trapped in a military camp that was partially buried under snow.

HEALTH THREATS -

H5N1 bird flu infection may be more common, less deadly, than thought.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

A number of UNUSUAL fireballs observed around the USA this month have researchers wondering if Earth is passing through a special "February swarm" of meteoroids. In the middle of the night on February 13th, something disturbed the animal population of rural Portal, Georgia. Cows started mooing anxiously and local dogs howled at the sky. The cause of the commotion was a rock from space. "At 1:43 AM Eastern, I witnessed an amazing fireball. It was very large and lit up half the sky as it fragmented. The event set dogs barking and upset cattle, which began to make excited sounds. I regret I didn't have a camera; it lasted nearly 6 seconds."
"This month, some big space rocks have been hitting Earth's atmosphere. There have been five or six notable fireballs that might have dropped meteorites around the United States." It’s not the number of fireballs that has researchers puzzled. So far, fireball counts in February 2012 are about normal. Instead, it's the appearance and trajectory of the fireballs that sets them apart.
"These fireballs are particularly slow and penetrating. They hit the top of the atmosphere moving slower than 15 km/s, decelerate rapidly, and make it to within 50 km of Earth’s surface." The action began on the evening of February 1st when a fireball over central Texas wowed thousands of onlookers in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.
"It was brighter and long-lasting than anything I've seen before. The fireball took about 8 seconds to cross the sky. I could see the fireball start to slow down; then it exploded like a firecracker artillery shell into several pieces, flickered a few more times and then slowly burned out." Another observer in Coppell, Texas, reported a loud double boom as "the object broke into two major chunks with many smaller pieces." The fireball was bright enough to be seen on NASA cameras located in New Mexico more than 500 miles away. "It was about as bright as the full Moon." Estimates are that the object was 1 to 2 meters in diameter.
So far in February, NASA's All-Sky Fireball Network has photographed about a half a dozen bright meteors that belong to this oddball category. They range in size from basketballs to buses, and all share the same slow entry speed and deep atmospheric penetration. A scientist has analyzed their orbits and come to a surprising conclusion: "They all hail from the asteroid belt - but not from a single location in the asteroid belt. There is no common source for these fireballs, which is puzzling."
This isn't the first time sky watchers have noticed odd fireballs in February. In fact, the "Fireballs of February" are a bit of a legend in meteor circles. "Back in the 1960s and 70s, amateur astronomers noticed an increase in the number of bright, sound-producing deep-penetrating fireballs during the month of February. The numbers seemed significant, especially when you consider that there are few people outside at night in winter. Follow-up studies in the late 1980s suggested no big increase in the rate of February fireballs. Nevertheless, we've always wondered if something was going on." Indeed, a 1990 study suggests that the 'February Fireballs' are real. They analyzed photographic records of about a thousand fireballs from the 1970s and 80s and found evidence for a fireball stream intersecting Earth's orbit in February.They allso found signs of fireball streams in late summer and fall. The results are controversial, however.
NASA's growing All-Sky Fireball Network could end up solving the mystery. They are adding cameras all the time, spreading the network's coverage across North America for a dense, uninterrupted sampling of the night sky. "The beauty of our smart multi-camera system, is that it measures orbits almost instantly. We know right away when a fireball flurry is underway - and we can tell where the meteoroids came from." This kind of instant data is almost unprecedented in meteor science, and promises new insights into the origin of February’s fireballs. Meanwhile, the month isn't over yet. "If the cows and dogs start raising a ruckus tonight, go out and take a look." (video)

**Be courteous to all, but intimate with few,
and let those few be well tried
before you give them your confidence. **
George Washington


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.2 FIJI REGION

Yesterday -
2/22/12 -
5.1 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.5 KEPULAUAN KAI, INDONESIA
5.2 VANUATU

VOLCANOES -

Chilean volcano's ash is still disrupting ecosystems - Nine months after the eruption of the Puyehue volcano in Chile forced thousands to flee for their lives, its impact is still being felt in the surrounding region. Puyehue, located in the southern Chilean Andes, began erupting on 3 June 2011.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES -

Almost a year after the Japanese Tohoku earthquake and mega-tsunami, the Pacific Ocean is still dealing with the consequences of the catastrophe. A mass of debris was washed out to sea as floodwaters receded from the land, and some of that wreckage continues to float around the ocean. Most of it headed eastwards, according to modelling work by the Hawaii-based International Pacific Research Center. "So far, the debris field has spread in length more than 2,000 nautical miles, and is more than 1,000 nautical miles wide." That is approaching 4,000km by 2,000km.
Japanese estimates suggested perhaps 20 million tonnes of debris were generated by the earthquake and the incoming rush of water on 11 March last year. Most would have stayed on land, and a fair proportion pulled out to sea would have sunk rapidly. But it is possible a million tonnes is still floating on the ocean. Video pictures at the time showed all manner of materials caught in the flow, from upturned boats and cars to whole buildings picked up off their foundations. The dominant movement of water off Japan is the Kuroshio Current, the North Pacific equivalent of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic. It hugs the Asian continental slope until about 35 degrees North, where it is then deflected due east into the deep ocean as the Kuroshio Extension. A lot of the floating material rode this extension.
What a simulation shows is the area of ocean where debris might be found, but look over the side of any ship and you would very probably see no debris at all because the individual items have now become widely separated. However, the information is of immense interest to shipping authorities because objects in the water, depending of their size, can be a serious collision hazard. Another keenly interested party is the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, the marine park encompassing the northwestern Hawaiian islands and atolls, such as Midway. It is an area of outstanding natural beauty and is home to many interesting and endangered species. So far, the modelling has suggested the bulk of the field is passing to the north of the monument. "However, the currents have changed and so we expect reports [of debris washing up] from Midway and the Kure Atoll soon." The debris may touch the west coast of the US in another year or two, but what does make landfall will be a small percentage of the overall floating mass. Ultimately, the IPRC work suggests, at least 95% of the debris that has not sunk will move into the North Pacific "Garbage Patch", a long-lived circulation of floating rubbish trapped by the North Pacific Gyre. Over time it will decay and sink. The concern for conservationists is that smaller, particularly plastic fragments can be ingested by marine organisms. (Animation of how the Japanese tsunami debris field has spread since March 2011)

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Radioactive contamination from the Fukushima power plant disaster has been detected as far as almost 643km off Japan in the Pacific Ocean, with water showing readings of up to 1000 times more than prior levels. "We're not over the hump" yet in terms of radioactive contamination of the ocean because of continued leakage from the plant.
But the results for the substance cesium-137 are far below the levels that are generally considered harmful, either to marine animals or people who eat seafood. The results are for water samples taken in June, about three months after the power plant disaster. In addition to thousands of water samples, researchers also sampled fish and plankton and found cesium-137 levels well below the legal health limit. They sampled water from about 32km to about 643km off the coast east of the Fukushima plant. Concentrations of cesium-137 throughout that range were 10 to 1000 times normal, but they were about one-tenth the levels generally considered harmful. Cesium-137 wasn't the only radioactive substance released from the plant, but it's of particular concern because of its long persistence in the environment. Its half-life is 30 years. The highest readings last June were not always from locations closest to the Fukushima plant. That's because swirling ocean currents formed concentrations of the material. Most of the cesium-137 detected probably entered the ocean from water discharges, rather than atmospheric fallout.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said the findings were not surprising, given the vastness of the ocean and its ability to absorb and dilute materials. "This is what we predicted." The water's cesium-137 concentration has been so diluted that just 32km offshore, "if it was not seawater, you could drink it without any problems. This is good news." Scientists expect levels to continue to decrease over time. "We still don't have a full picture, but we can expect the situation will not become worse."

**Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force.
Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master.**
George Washington


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.1 VANUATU

Yesterday -
2/21/12 -
5.0 ASCENSION ISLAND REGION
5.3 BERING STRAIT
5.0 TONGA

4.0 Missouri quake felt in 9 states. The quake was at a depth of 3.1 miles. It was felt in 9 states, with the furthest location from the epicenter being New Bern, North Carolina, more than 800 miles to the east. Several people in five states - Missouri, Illinois, Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee - felt the quake, along with scattered people in four others, as far away as North Carolina, Alabama, Indiana and Georgia.
Residents got the early morning jolt Tuesday after an earthquake causing minor damage and a big stir in the town of East Prairie, near the quake's epicenter. “It sounded like a semi-truck and it rattled my windows and it rattled my house...We're no strangers to quakes, but this one was different. We had one four years ago and that one rolled. This one was straight underneath us and lasted for 30 seconds or so. It reminded you of lightning."
A U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist said the rural farming community of East Prairie is known for its seismic activity. "It's a normal event that occurs from time to time. It happens every two years or so. They have many that are small but no one can really feel them. Once in a while you will get one like this one that is wider and stronger." The East Prairie City Administrator heard reports of cracks in sidewalks and walls, some broken windows, and minor household damage such as rattled shelves and things falling from cabinets.

VOLCANOES -

Series of tremors and quakes rock Iceland volcano Katla - Iceland's huge volcano Katla is stirring into life after tell-tale signs of the potential for an eruption were monitored by observers. A harmonic tremor has been recorded for two days and small earthquakes were confirmed at the volcano by the Icelandic Met Office Tuesday morning. It is HIGHLY UNUSUAL for an eruption in Iceland to occur in the middle of winter but the early indications show Katla is building up power. Experts are unclear as to whether it is water or magma that is causing this week's sudden increase in activity and the seismic recordings are currently lower than when the volcano first showed signs of a minor eruption last July. In September, Katla again stirred into life with a harmonic tremor and earthquakes in the volcano's caldera - its magma chamber. Katla, which has not experienced a significant eruption for 93 years, is the second largest volcano on Iceland and the consequences of a major eruption will be felt across Europe. In 2010, the country's president warned "the time for Katla to erupt is coming close, Iceland has prepared and it is high time for European governments and airline authorities all over Europe and the world to start planning for the eventual Katla eruption".
It is believed Katla has the potential to be much stronger and more disruptive than the last two Icelandic volcanic eruptions that caused chaos across Europe's air space, grounding flights and closing airports. Katla is much larger than its neighbouring Eyjafjallajokull – which erupted in 2010 - with a magma chamber about 10 times the size. Volcanologists warn that if Katla does erupt, the combination of the magma and the large ice sheet covering the volcano could lead to explosive activity and an ash plume for weeks, if not months.

Philippines - There is no danger of a volcanic eruption from the cracks in Kanlaon Volcano caused by the magnitude 6.9 earthquake that hit Negros Island, an expert from the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology says.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 13s (Hilwa) was located approximately 350 nm east of Port Louis, Mauritius.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Trapped Dalmatian pelicans hand-fed in frozen Caspian Sea - Authorities in the southern Russian province of Dagestan are trying to save hundreds of rare Dalmatian pelicans trapped by UNUSUALLY COLD weather. The birds migrated to the area near the city of Makhachkala last week. About 20 birds have already died of hunger after the Caspian Sea froze over. Around 1,400 Dalmatian pelicans, the world's largest variety of pelican, are thought to live in southern Russia. Hundreds of kilograms of fish have been bought every day by Dagestan's Nature Protection Ministry for the pelicans. The birds are being fed locally-bought sprats while fishing in the Caspian is impossible. Local residents have been volunteering to help authorities in their efforts to feed the birds. But the authorities at the shipyard where the birds have been trapped at first refused the public entry. "We did not let them in for the sake of the pelicans,'' the chief guard said, citing concerns that some residents had brought bread and other foods unsuitable for pelicans. .

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Canada - Extreme weather hit national parks hard in 2011. An UNPRECEDENTED WAVE OF SEVERE WEATHER that hammered national parks and historic sites left Ottawa with a $14.8 million repair bill in 2011. Storms, floods and hurricanes buried parts of parks under piles of debris and damaged visitor centres.

The Canadian government has been accused of "muzzling" its scientists. - Speakers at a major science meeting being held in Canada said communication of vital research on health and environment issues is being suppressed. "The Prime Minister is keen to keep control of the message, I think to ensure that the government won't be embarrassed by scientific findings of its scientists that run counter to sound environmental stewardship. I suspect the federal government would prefer that its scientists don't discuss research that points out just how serious the climate change challenge is."
The Canadian government recently withdrew from the Kyoto protocol to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
The allegation of "muzzling" came up at a session of the AAAS meeting to discuss the impact of a media protocol introduced by the Conservative government shortly after it was elected in 2008. The protocol requires that all interview requests for scientists employed by the government must first be cleared by officials. A decision as to whether to allow the interview can take several days, which can prevent government scientists commenting on breaking news stories. Sources say that requests are often refused and when interviews are granted, government media relations officials can and do ask for written questions to be submitted in advance and elect to sit in on the interview.
The protocol has been described as "Orwellian". The protocol states: "Just as we have one department we should have one voice. Interviews sometimes present surprises to ministers and senior management. Media relations will work with staff on how best to deal with the call (an interview request from a journalist). This should include asking the programme expert to respond with approved lines." Information is so tightly controlled that the public is "left in the dark. The only information they are given is that which the government wants, which will then allow a supporting of a particular agenda."
"The more controversial the story, the less likely you are to talk to the scientists. They (government media relations staff) just stonewall. If they don't like the question you don't get an answer." Several examples were cited of the "muzzling" of scientists by the government. Journalists across Canada are finding it "harder and harder" to get access to government scientists. When she requests an interview, she has to enter into prolonged email correspondence to speak to a scientist she knows is ready and willing to be interviewed, often to be declined or offered another scientist she does not want to interview. "It's so hard to get hold of scientists that a lot of my colleagues have given up." Journalists were denied access to scientists working for the government agency Health Canada last year, when there was concern about radiation levels reaching the country's western coast from Japan following the explosion at the Fukushima nuclear power plant. Ultimately, journalists obtained the information they sought from European agencies. Interview requests move up an "increasingly thick layer of media managers, media strategists, deputy ministers, then go up to the Privy Council Office, which decides 'yes' or 'no'". "The government has never explained what the process is. They just imposed these changes and they expected us to sit back and take it." The media protocol is being used by the Canadian government to "instruct scientists to deliver a certain message, thereby taking the heat out of controversial topics. You can't have an informed discussion if the science isn't allowed to be communicated. Public relations message number one is that you have to set the conversation. You don't want to have a conversation on someone else's terms. And this is now being applied to science on discussions about oil sands, climate and salmon."

Communities around the world now have access to a free weather information system that will help avert major disasters by providing warnings of impending extreme weather events. The system, implemented by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), will also assist in water management, food security, and health issues. The WMO Information System (WIS), will make accessible a number of meteorological observations and other data to a wide variety of agencies, communities and other stakeholders.
“With WIS, emergency response teams can register to receive warnings, and once warnings of impending extreme events are issued, they can register for relevant weather, water, and climate information to be sent to them automatically to help with their planning.” Just over a year ago, there were scales that measured hurricanes’ power and air quality, but none for floods, droughts, or heatwaves. Because of global warming, such droughts and floods are expected to become more frequent, as well.
The new system will be the first all-inclusive weather information source, stemming from data all over the globe. “The WMO Information System is the pillar of our strategy for managing and moving weather, climate, and water information in the 21st century. It will reduce the costs of information exchange incurred by national meteorological and hydrological services and maximize exploitation of advances in communications technology … it will allow users outside the meteorological community to have free access to this information for the first time.”
The global information system centers that have been approved by WMO’s governing World Meteorological Congress include Beijing, China; Tokyo, Japan; and Offenbach, Germany. These three have been running in pre-operational mode since the middle of 2011 and are now fully operational. The WIS is an expansion of the Global Telecommunication System of the World Weather Watch (WWW), in use since 1963. The Fourth World Meteorological Congress approved the concept of WWW, which is the basis of the WMO programs. It combines observing systems, telecommunication facilities, data-processing, and forecasting centers.
The WMO is “a major contribution towards life-saving efforts at community level,” said the UN special representative for Disaster Risk Reduction. “This is a significant boost for disaster risk reduction and will have many practical benefits for communities which suffer from weather-related disasters. For the first time, national disaster management offices and other responders will have free and direct access in real-time to weather observations and forecasts including tsunami alerts, tropical cyclone and storm warnings. Time and information save lives and this will make early warning systems more effective.”

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Ancient plants back to life after 30,000 frozen years - Scientists in Russia have grown plants from fruit stored away in permafrost by squirrels over 30,000 years ago. The fruit was found in the banks of the Kolmya River in Siberia, a top site for people looking for mammoth bones. The Institute of Cell Biophysics team raised plants of Silene stenophylla - of the campion family - from the fruit. This is the oldest plant material by far to have been brought to life.
Prior to this, the record lay with date palm seeds stored for 2,000 years at Masada in Israel.
The team found about 70 squirrel hibernation burrows in the river bank. "All burrows were found at depths of 20-40m from the present day surface and located in layers containing bones of large mammals such as mammoth, woolly rhinoceros, bison, horse, deer, and other representatives of fauna from the age of mammoths, as well as plant remains." The squirrels appear to have stashed their store in the coldest part of their burrow, which subsequently froze permanently, presumably due to a cooling of the local climate.
Back in the lab, near Moscow, the team's attempts to germinate mature seeds failed. Eventually they found success using elements of the fruit itself, which they refer to as "placental tissue" and propagated in laboratory dishes. The fruits grew into healthy plants, though subtly different from modern examples of the species. Silene stenophylla still grows on the Siberian tundra; and when the researchers compared modern-day plants against their resurrected cousins, they found subtle differences in the shape of petals and the sex of flowers, for reasons that are not evident. "This is by far the most extraordinary example of extreme longevity for material from higher plants... it is a surprise to me that they're finding viable material from this placental tissue rather than mature seeds."
The Russian team's theory is that the tissue cells are full of sucrose that would have formed food for the growing plants. Sugars are preservatives; they are even being researched as a way of keeping vaccines fresh in the hot climates of Africa without the need for refrigeration. So it may be that the sugar-rich cells were able to survive in a potentially viable state for so long.
Perhaps the most enticing suggestion is that it might be possible, using the same techniques, to raise plants that are now extinct - provided that Arctic ground squirrels or some other creatures secreted away the fruit and seeds. "We'd predict that seeds would stay viable for thousands, possibly tens of thousands of years - I don't think anyone would expect hundreds of thousands of years. [So] there is an opportunity to resurrect flowering plants that have gone extinct in the same way that we talk about bringing mammoths back to life, the Jurassic Park kind of idea."

**Few men have virtue to withstand the highest bidder.**
George Washington


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.2 FIJI REGION

Yesterday -
2/20/12 -
5.2 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 TONGA REGION
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
5.1 XINJIANG-XIZANG BORDER REGION
5.0 KASHMIR-XINJIANG BORDER REGION
5.0 KYRGYZSTAN

VOLCANOES -

Bolivian volcano Uturuncu is now an object of international scientific fascination. Satellite measurements show that the hill has been rising more than half an inch a year for almost 20 years, suggesting that the volcano, which last erupted more than 300,000 years ago, is steadily inflating. “The size and longevity of the uplift is UNPRECEDENTED." Taken together with other new research, the inflation means “we COULD BE WITNESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW SUPERVOLCANO.” [The potential hazard is perhaps tens of thousands of years away.]
Such a volcano could produce an eruption of ash, rock and pumice 1,000 times the strength of the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens in Washington state, the worst volcanic event in modern American history, and 10,000 times that of the Icelandic eruptions in 2010 that paralyzed global air traffic for weeks. Luckily, while the planet has 30 to 40 supervolcanoes — 10 of them potentially active — supereruptions occur only every 100,000 years or so. The last one, that of the Toba Volcano in Sumatra about 74,000 years ago, is thought to have spewed enough ash to cause a 6- to 10-year “volcanic winter,” a 1,000-year global cooling period and a loss of life so vast that it may have changed the course of human evolution.
“We see no evidence for an imminent supervolcanic eruption anywhere on Earth,” said a research geologist and geochemist with the United States Geological Survey, who specializes in one of the best-known of the world’s supervolcanoes — Yellowstone, in Wyoming. About Uturuncu, he said that while “its rise over 20 years is certainly significant,” there wasn’t enough evidence to call it a supervolcano in the making. Other researchers agree. But they say Uturuncu’s steady inflation makes it fertile ground for study. “It’s like a tumor growing within the earth, and we have to understand whether it is benign or malignant.” Uturuncu was already considered potentially active. Eighteen thousand feet up its slopes small holes in the ground called fumaroles leak scorching sulfur gases. These may date 10,000 years and are evidence of a heat source close to the surface. Also telling is the white soil near the summit (from a distance it looks deceptively like snow) that results from thermal changes below. Data from 20 days of fieldwork in November using magnetotellurics, a remote radio-wave-sensing method similar to CT scanning in the human body suggested a zone of low electrical resistance far below the surface “that is likely a magma chamber." The magma chamber is growing by one cubic meter (35 cubic feet) per second, though its total volume is not known.
Uturuncu is nestled in one of the planet’s largest supervolcanic regions, which has six supervolcanoes across Bolivia, Chile and Argentina. Though it was long thought to be separate from those supervolcanoes, new Plutons findings reveal that magma from Uturuncu’s last eruption is more similar to the supervolcanoes’ than to that of the region’s more common volcanoes. Bolivia has 198 recognized volcanoes; 18 are considered potentially active. The country’s last volcanic eruption was 10,000 years ago.

Scientists believe they've discovered why the moon has no active volcanoes, despite containing plenty of liquid magma. The answer, they say, is that the magma is so dense that it's simply too heavy to bubble to the surface. The European scientists copied the composition of moon rocks collected by the Apollo missions, and melted them at the extremely high pressures and temperatures found inside the moon. They then measured their densities using X-rays. "We had to use the most brilliant X-ray beam in the world for this experiment because the magma sample is so tiny and confined in a massive, highly absorbing container. Without a bright beam of X-rays, you cannot measure these density variations." Nearly all the lunar magmas were found to be less dense than their solid surroundings, similar to the situation on Earth. However, there was one important exception: small droplets of titanium-rich glass first found in Apollo 14 mission samples produced liquid magma as dense as the rocks found in the deepest parts of the lunar mantle today. This magma would be too heavy to move towards the surface, says the team.
Previous research has shown that titanium-rich rocks were formed soon after the formation of the Moon at shallow levels, close to the surface. It now seems that, early in the history of the moon, such titanium-rich rocks descended from near the surface all the way to the core-mantle boundary. "After descending, magma formed from these near-surface rocks, very rich in titanium, and accumulated at the bottom of the mantle – a bit like an upside-down volcano. Today, the Moon is still cooling down, as are the melts in its interior. In the distant future, the cooler and therefore solidifying melt will change in composition, likely making it less dense than its surroundings. This lighter magma could make its way again up to the surface forming an active volcano on the moon – what a sight that would be! – but for the time being, this is just a hypothesis to stimulate more experiments."

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone 12s (Giovanna) was located approximately 410 nm southeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar. This is the final warning on this system by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration.
- Tropical cyclone 13s (Hilwa) was located approximately 410 nm east of port Louis, Mauritius.

Deadly Cyclone Giovanna Likely to Hit Again. - The powerful cyclone that hit the Madagascar was again threatening to touch down, just days after killing eight people and displacing about 40,000 others. The cyclone made landfall Monday in the sugar-producing district of Brickaville in eastern Madagascar, causing massive damage there before going through the central islands and exiting in the south-west. Humanitarian efforts have since been under way and a new storm would further complicate ongoing relief efforts being co-ordinated by the National Office for Disaster Preparedness.
Meteorologists have since issued further warnings of a second landfall. The cyclone is said to have intensified in severity after heading towards southern Mozambique.
The category four storm was first sighted nine days ago at 1,650 kilometres in the Indian Ocean and was 1,000 kilometres in diameter. Strong winds and heavy rainfall destroyed about 8,475 houses, with 4,230 completely crushed. Over 100 schools, hospitals, churches and offices were also damaged. Landslides ripped trees.
Damaged bridges, especially those on the road serving linking the capital city Antananarivo and the eastern port city of Toamasina, have paralysed transport.
Madagascar is one of Africa's most exposed countries to tropical cyclones, being hit by around 60 per cent of the storms formed in the Indian Ocean basin. An annual average of 3-4 intense tropical cyclones with winds of up to 200 kilometres have made landfall since the 1990s. Computer modelling shows around 263 cyclones are expected to hit the island nation by 2100. Cyclone Geralda, one of the worst to hit the island, touched down in 1994.
Cyclone Giovanna Struck With Little Warning - In a cyclone-prone country like Madagascar being prepared for disaster makes all the difference. The Malagasy National Disaster Office organizes annual simulation exercises in vulnerable areas to test the preparedness of local authorities and communities. However, in Brickaville, on the east coast of Madagascar, power lines had been down for two weeks - a regular occurrence in the island's outlying provinces - and news that the town lay directly in the path of Cyclone Giovanna, a category-four tropical storm, could not reach the people in time. The cyclone destroyed and damaged thousands of homes and killed at least 23 people, but this number is expected to rise as more remote locations are reached.
"By the time the administrator of the district came to warn us about the cyclone, it was already here. All we could do was run to the church for cover." Nearly a week after Giovanna struck on 14 February, esidents are trying to rebuild their houses, which were among the 70 percent damaged by the storm. The water pump was damaged and people have resorted to drinking water from an untreated well. Food is also in short supply. "We need rice, oil and soap. On the other side of town, aid workers have given out supplies, but we didn't get any yet." "The [aid] supplies come in waves. We managed to get drinking water to the first 2,000 flood victims, but it's not enough. We have materials for 5,000 people, but after our evaluation there might be as many as 50,000 victims who need supplies." "We thought we needed food rations for 4,000 people, but by now we have discovered that it is much closer to 6,000, so we have new rations coming in." Giovanna was much worse than Geralda, the 1994 cyclone, which all but destroyed the town. "My house is completely broken and I'll need to raise about 100,000 Ariary (US$50) to rebuild it."
In neighbouring Manambato, villagers did not believe reports about an impending cyclone, even after the village leader received a cellphone text message. "The day of the cyclone it was very hot and sunny, so we didn't think there would be a storm. When we came out in the morning, everything was destroyed."
There was much less damage in places where schoolteachers had been trained in disaster preparedness. "We saw how the [trained] school teachers told children how to prepare for the cyclone. They had some very simple, but important messages like, 'Weigh down the roofs with sandbags, reinforce the walls, put important belongings in plastic bags, and store water'. When people don't have this knowledge they will sit and wait for the disaster to come, and afterwards they'll wait for help to arrive...We went through one village where they had weighted down the roofs and reinforced the walls, but apart from this you saw that there was an empowerment, an increased awareness. People were able to mitigate the damage."
In Brickaville the storm would have come as a complete surprise if aid workers from neighbouring towns had not travelled there to warn people. "I showed local officials the [satellite] pictures of Giovanna. We had just a few hours left, so from three o'clock in the afternoon until the storm hit at 8 p.m. we went around warning people, cutting trees, and setting up shelters. We contacted all the district heads in the surroundings towns and told them to get their post-storm reports to us as soon as possible. Then we turned off the electricity and waited." Giovanna raged all night. "I've been through three cyclones so far, and this is the worst one yet. It went on the whole night. When we came out in the morning, everything was flooded, our shelters were filled with people, and there was no communication. The UNICEF team is now headquartered in Vatomandry, another coastal town hard hit by the storm, trying to collect data from the surrounding communities. "There are 19 communes surrounding this town, and right now we have news from four of them. Some are as far as 85km away, and there is no road." A local education official said there was a total of 774 classrooms in the area and so far he had counted 275 that had been destroyed, and 107 that had been damaged. "We don't have a budget for reconstruction at all."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Serbia - Boats sink in Belgrade as thaw causes Danube ice chaos. A rapid thaw has brought chaos to the River Danube in the Serbian capital Belgrade, where ice damaged boats, pontoons and floating restaurants. The thick ice covered one of Europe's busiest waterways during the recent freeze, but began to break up on Sunday as temperatures rose.
In Belgrade, boats crashed into each other but there were no immediate reports of casualties. One boat owner said the ice had moved so fast, boats could not be saved. "The damage will be hundreds of thousands of euros for sure." Only a "handful" of boats remained intact out of about 100 moored in the Serbian capital's Kapetanija marina.
Debris was scattered among the breaking ice for hundreds of metres along the river, and several floating restaurants, barges and boats were beached on river banks after the ice snapped anchor lines. Belgrade emergency services said there was no ice risk to bridges and other infrastructure in the city, and there was no threat of flooding. The Danube flows 2,860km (1,777 miles) through nine countries and is vital for transport, power and industry. It has been almost entirely frozen from Austria to the Black Sea. Ice more than 30cm (11in) thick in places broke up over the weekend as temperatures rose.
Belgrade river officials advised boat owners to constantly monitor their property but not to try to recover it from the water as of Monday morning. "We have not seen weather like this in a long time. People were relaxed, the boats stayed there, the icebreakers did not remove the ice on time." At least 20 people have died from the cold in Serbia in recent weeks and economists say damage from the cold snap may cost Serbia as much as 500m euros (£415m; $660m). Some 3,300 people remain stranded by snow and ice in rural areas, where they can only be reached by helicopter.

Monday, February 20, 2012

Media ratchets up fear of another major earthquake in Japan - So-called megathrust earthquakes such as the one that struck off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture on March 11, 2011, tend to occur in pairs, with a relatively short gap between them. Such was the case in the Ansei Era (November 1854 through March 1860), during which Japan was successively shaken by several major earthquakes. Since January, several weekly magazines, as well as sports tabloids, have produced a stream of copy about the inevitability of the next big one. "Resign yourself that an M8 quake beneath Tokyo and an M9 quake in the Tokai region are imminent!" screams a headline.
For those in the Tokyo metropolitan area, one of the scariest prospects is for a so-called shuto chokka-gata quake of the magnitude 8 class, which last occurred in 1703. Chokka means "directly beneath," but this does not mean such a quake's epicenter would necessarily be under the center of Tokyo, but rather somewhere within a large area that ranges between southern Ibaraki in the northeast to Kanagawa's boundary with Shizuoka in the southwest. Since 1894, five large quakes ranging from magnitude 6.7 to magnitude 7.2, have occurred therein, with the epicenter of two in Ibaraki (1895 and 1921), one in Tokyo (1894), one off the coast of Chiba (1987) and one near the entrance to Tokyo Bay (1922).
Guessing where the next one will strike is like playing Russian roulette with a revolver with chambers for 18 bullets. On a list drawn up by the Cabinet Office in 2005, each scenario contains an estimate of human fatalities and number of structures suffering damage. Quakes between magnitude 6.9 and 7.3 centered at the north, east, or west of Tokyo Bay, for example, are projected to kill between 11,000 and 12,000 people and damage or destroy some 680,000 to 850,000 buildings. These three, however, are worst-case scenarios and the damage from a quake occurring on the region's outer fringes would be much less. In any event, havoc is likely to ensue. A scenario of what could be expected to transpire in Tokyo in the first week following a major earthquake points out that 70 percent of Tokyo's water mains are unprepared for a major quake. Repair costs to water mains from a Tokyo quake of the same scale as the one last March 11 would run several tenfolds that of the damage incurred in Tohoku. And the power utility may need as long as 55 days to restore electric power to 1.9 million households.
As for harbingers of impending geological activity, reportsare coming in that bats in caves at the foothills of Mt. Fuji have begun to behave erratically since last December. Are their sensitive ears picking up the nascent rumbles of a major volcanic eruption? What really drove the needle against the pin on the scare-o-meter was the front page story in the Yomiuri Shimbun of Jan. 23, which cited a team of seismologists at the University of Tokyo who were quoted as having estimated the probability of a major quake beneath Tokyo as 70 percent within the next four years. With such a probability, 'by the time this column is printed, the quake might have already occurred'.
A point of contention arose, however, over the estimate cited by the Todai team, which appears to have been based on analysis of the frequency of aftershocks following the March 11 disaster off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture through September. The number has tapered off sharply since then. The publishing of such figures points to "a decline in the quality of journalism," because the writer cherry-picked the figures without providing other data that mitigates their impact. The newspapers are now even worse than the weekly magazines. Since readership is in decline, their reporters want to run figures that catch readers' attention. Then that gets amplified by TV networks and the weekly magazines. This suggests Japanese journalism is in its final throes of terminal illness." "Stated simply, for each incremental increase in quake magnitude, the number of earthquakes declines to one-tenth. For every 10 magnitude-5 quakes occurring, there will be one magnitude 6. While the total number of earthquakes between March and September of last year were sevenfold that of a normal year, if the number from September is extended through to present, the figure drops to just threefold. So that should make the likelihood of a major quake in Tokyo 80 percent over the next 30 years and less than 50 percent over the next four years."


**Associate with men of good quality if you esteem your own reputation;
for it is better to be alone than in bad company.**
George Washington


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.4 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 KYRGYZSTAN

Yesterday -
2/19/12 -
5.3 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.1 CROZET ISLANDS REGION [2006 km (1246 miles) SSE of Mozambique]

Iranian Experts to Manufacture Earthquake Prediction Satellite - Iranian researchers plan to manufacture a law-altitude satellite which helps predict earthquakes from space. The satellite dubbed Ayat (Signs) will help predict the time of earthquakes for the first time in the country. The Deputy Head of Iran's Industrial and Scientific Studies Center for Innovation and International Cooperation said the satellite would identify the signals sent out from the earth before or after the earthquake, adding the satellite weighs 50-70 kg and would be placed in a lower altitude.
He stressed some countries including France, China and Russia are working in this regard, noting Ayat satellite possesses a key role in processing the seismic disturbances before and after the shocks.
Basic studies have been carried out and the practical process will begin after the required budget is provided.
Iran sits astride several major faults in the earth's crust, and is prone to frequent earthquakes, many of which have been devastating. The worst in recent times hit Bam in southeastern Kerman province in December 2003, killing 31,000 people - about a quarter of its population - and destroying the city's ancient mud-built citadel. The deadliest quake in the country was in June 1990 and measured 7.7 on the Richter scale. About 37,000 people were killed and more than 100,000 injured in the northwestern provinces of Gilan and Zanjan. It devastated 27 towns and about 1,870 villages. Tehran alone sits on two major fault lines, and the capital's 14 million residents fear a major quake.

New Zealand - Five thousand earthquakes after the devastating February 22 tremor, Canterbury's aftershock sequence has a recognisable personality. Seismologists looking at 12 months of data have found that the frequency and size of the aftershocks is similar to the seismic aftermath observed in eastern Californian and Tasmanian events, where the tremors lasted decades but were increasingly smaller in scale.
Since the original rumble in September 2010, 10000 quakes have rattled Canterbury. More than 5500 of these have occurred since the deadly February 2011 quake re-energised the sequence, and 214 of these tremors were magnitude 4 or larger. The Darfield aftershock sequence is expected to last for 30 years, with tremors tailing off gradually until they are unnoticeable. Cantabrians repeatedly asked whether they were experiencing a particularly vicious sequence, in particular when a magnitude 5.8 earthquake occurred two days before Christmas. Seismologists say the Darfield sequence was not violent compared with historical records. In contrast, Sumatra is still experiencing moderate-size quakes eight years after the magnitude 9.1 quake which caused the Boxing Day tsunami in 2004.
But unlike the Sumatran sequence, the Canterbury quakes were limited to a smaller geographic area, and have been particularly hard on Christchurch's central city. "We had the misfortune of the quakes migrating into the city and staying in the city for a while. But now we're seeing them migrating away." GNS Science's latest computer modelling shows there is an 8% chance of a 5.5 to 5.9 magnitude tremor in the next month and 2% chance of a magnitude 6 to 6.4 quake.
Why the city suffered so badly -
* 60km to 80km of the earth's crust has experienced a stress change, meaning the aftershock sequence will last about 30 years.
* Horizontal ground motions 1.7 times the force of gravity were larger than expected.
* One reason for this could be the way the fault ruptured towards Christchurch (it had strong "directivity").
* Upper and lower layers of the earth separated during the quake, then "slapped" back together, producing very high impacts (known as the trampoline effect).
* The hard rock under Banks Peninsula may have compounded the effect of the quake by reflecting seismic activity back towards the city.
* There were "remarkably high" levels of stress built up under Canterbury's soil.
* High water tables trapped energy in the top layers of soil in some areas, boosting liquefaction.
* Liquefaction caused the worst damage to land and buildings, including many CBD high-rises.
* Deep-seated landslides caused the most damage in the southern Port Hills.
* Critical structural elements in buildings built between 1976 and 1992 failed.

VOLCANOES -

Alert level raised for a new remote Alaska volcano - The Alaska Volcano Observatory has raised the alert level for Kanaga Volcano in the remote Aleutian Islands. in the remote Aleutian Islands. Scientists on Saturday said possible explosive activity and a likely ash cloud indicate new unrest at the volcano, leading it to raise the volcano alert level from normal to advisory. Volcanic tremor was detected at about 6:23 a.m. Saturday. The unrest indicates a possibility for sudden explosions of ash to occur at any time, and ash clouds exceeding 20,000 feet above sea level may develop. Ash clouds above 20,000 feet from Alaska volcanoes are a threat to trans-Pacific air carriers. Kanaga Volcano is located about 1,215 miles southwest of Anchorage.


TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
-Tropical cyclone 12s (Giovanna) was located approximately 455 nm south-southeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar.
-Tropical cyclone 13s was located approximately 650 nm east of Port Louis, Mauritius.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

U.S. - Deadly avalanche near ski resort in Washington state - 4 dead. A police spokesperson said the skiers were ''very experienced'' and well prepared. Rescuers were dispatched to an out-of-bounds area near Stevens Pass ski resort after reports around noon local time (20:00 GMT). Three were killed and eight skiers declared missing were later accounted for. The resort is located in the Cascade Mountains north-east of Seattle. The Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center warned of a high avalanche danger above 5,000 ft in the Stevens Pass area with a considerable danger at lower levels. The centre said there had been heavy snowfall over the last few days. Another person was killed in a separate incident when a snowboarder went over a cliff at Alpental ski area east of Seattle.

SPACE WEATHER -

AURORAS OVER THE USA - A solar wind stream hit Earth's magnetic field during the waning hours of Saturday, Feb. 18th. Although the stream was expected, the bright auroras it produced were not. Northern Lights spilled across the Canadian border into US states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska, North Dakota, Iowa, and Minnesota. In Grand Portage, MN. "For an hour and a half we were treated to a green glow peppered with dancing curtains of green, purple and red." In Nebraska - yes, Nebraska - "I saw auroras on and off for approximately 2 hours from around 9pm to 11pm local time. There was a brief spell where color was visible to the eye with rays and bands."
This episode might have been amplified by the action of a co-rotating interaction region or "CIR." CIRs are transition zones between fast and slow solar wind streams. Solar wind plasma piles up in these regions, producing density gradients and shock waves that do a good job of sparking auroras. Local solar wind data suggest that Earth moved through a CIR around 1500 UT on Feb. 18th. (photos)