Thursday, May 31, 2012

Tornado spins off from Tropical Storm Beryl remnants on North Carolina coast. The remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl spun off a tornado that destroyed three homes and damaged dozens of others near the North Carolina coast Wednesday as the system sped toward the Atlantic. Beryl was expected to gain strength even as it was losing its tropical characteristics.

**Rats and roaches live by competition
under the laws of supply and demand;
it is the privilege of human beings to live
under the laws of justice and mercy.**
Wendell Berry


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
5/30/12 -
5.3 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.7 EASTERN KAZAKHSTAN
5.0 STATE OF YAP, MICRONESIA
5.1 BANDA SEA

Nevada - Scientists studying earthquake faults in the mountains west of Lake Tahoe say new, high-resolution imaging technology has helped uncover more substantial seismic hazards than previously thought to exist there. The steep, fault-formed range west of the lake could generate relatively strong earthquakes with magnitudes from 6.3 to 6.9, according to the study led by the U.S. Geological Survey.
The study also warns that temblors could trigger landslides along the whole Tahoe-Sierra frontal fault zone stretching from west of Truckee to the south end of Lake Tahoe - through the middle of Squaw Valley USA ski resort, Tahoma, Emerald Bay and Fallen Leaf Lake. "Although the Tahoe-Sierra frontal fault zone has long been recognized as forming the tectonic boundary between the Sierra Nevada to the west, and the Basin and Range Province to the east, its level of activity and hence seismic hazard was not fully recognized because dense vegetation obscured the surface expressions of the faults." By dating of the moraines from the last two glaciations in the Tahoe Basin around 21,000 and 70,000 years ago, they were able to calculate the rates of displacement.

Italy - 5.8 quake kills 16, injures 350. The second quake in less than two weeks hit north-central Italy's Emilia-Romagna region north of Bologna, leveling homes and historic structures and leaving 14,000 homeless. Thousands are still homeless after the earlier, stronger quake. Industrial buildings in Mirandola were among those destroyed by the quake. Emilia Romagna is home to some of Italy's best-known brands, including the world's biggest pasta maker Barilla, high-performance Ferrari sports cars, and motorcycle maker Ducati Motor Holding. The quake was felt throughout northern Italy, including the financial capital Milan, where some buildings and schools were evacuated, and the lagoon city of Venice.
Italy quakes to cost insurers up to 700 million euros - The quake on May 20 and two severe aftershocks nine days later will cost the insurance industry between 300 million euros and 700 million euros.

China - A 4.8-magnitude earthquake that hit north China's Tangshan Monday morning was an aftershock of the devastating quake that rocked the city in 1976 said a researcher. The moderate earthquake has sent ripples across the north China plain, shaking buildings in Beijing but leaving no reports of damage or injuries.
The small earthquake managed to send tremors rippling through the Chinese Internet after the researcher claimed the temblor was an aftershock from an earthquake that struck more than three decades ago. The 1976 quake, which measured at least 7.8 on the Richter scale and was followed by a 7.1-magnitude aftershock less than a day later, is one of the deadliest and most controversial earthquakes in modern history. According to official figures, it killed around 240,000 people, though some have accused the government of trying to downplay the tragedy and argued that the actual death toll may have been much higher.
In commenting on the origins of Monday’s tremor, the researcher's intention may have been to calm nerves. “This quake is an aftershock of the Great 1976 Tangshan Earthquake. It was not very damaging. This area isn’t likely to produce damaging earthquakes. Residents of the city should please maintain their normal lives and productivity.” Whatever his aims, internet users were quick to dismiss the claim as bogus. “Earthquakes are also fond of time travel?” wrote one user. “This expert takes residents for three-year-old children!” wrote another user. “A major earthquake has aftershocks for a century?”
It would appear that our beleaguered expert is not alone among geologists in identifying aftershocks decades after the main event. In 2009, Science Daily cited a study by U.S. researchers who found that most of the earthquakes felt in the Midwest were in fact aftershocks of 7- or larger magnitude quakes that struck the region in 1811 and 1812. “Aftershocks happen after a big earthquake because the movement on the fault changed the forces in the earth that act on the fault itself and nearby. “Aftershocks go on until the fault recovers, which takes much longer in the middle of a continent.”
The main variable, the researchers found, was the speed at which the sides of a fault line move past each other. California’s San Andreas fault, for example, moves relatively quickly, meaning aftershocks peter out after 10 years. Tangshan, it should be noted, is located on the Bohai Sea, so it’s not clear whether the comparison with the American Midwest is really apt.
What is clear is that Chinese Internet users are little inclined to believe authorities when it comes to Tangshan and earthquakes. “Originally I didn’t think this was a big deal,” wrote one user. “But as soon as I saw an expert come out trying to maintain stability, I felt there was something to it…I’m going to recharge the batteries in my flashlight.”

No reports of damage after magnitude 6.4 earthquake strikes northern Argentina - A 6.4-magnitude earthquake struck northern Argentina in the early hours of Monday morning. The tremor hit at 2:07am local time 21 miles east-southeast of Suncho Corral in Santiago del Estero province.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Colombian volcano spouts ash - A light spewing of ash on Tuesday amid renewed rumblings in the Nevado del Ruiz volcano prompted Colombian authorities to evacuate 500 people from beneath its flanks. A USGS geologist had just left Colombia this week after helping set up monitoring for the volcano. Colombian volcanologists reported that the likelihood of an eruption of the Nevado del Ruiz volcano has increased and local authorities have raised the alert level from yellow to orange indicating an eruption was likely in the coming days or weeks, though not imminent. The volcano has been rumbling at high activity for several months.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

Philippines - An active low-pressure area east of the Visayas area is likely to intensify into a cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours, state weather forecasters said before noon Thursday.

Two tropical storms have already popped up well before Friday's official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, but experts still predict a less active 2012 hurricane season than last year's 19 storms and seven hurricanes.

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Another, even closer asteroid - Newly-discovered asteroid 2012 KT42 passed closer to Earth than a geosynchronous satellite on Tuesday, May 29. It was 7 meters in size and passed at 1/20th of the distance of the moon from the earth. A Colorado professor said, "Along the way it brightened from magnitude 11.5 to 10.5, about a whole magnitude brighter than predicted. Aside from some meteorites I've held in my hands and other meteors flashing though the upper atmosphere, this is the closest astronomical object I've ever seen."
A large coronal hole is emerging over the sun's eastern limb. Solar wind flowing from the opening should reach Earth on June 6-7. Solar sunspot activity is low.

**The world cannot be discovered by a journey of miles
no matter how long, but only by a spiritual journey,
a journey of one inch, very arduous and humbling and joyful,
by which we arrive at the ground at our own feet
and learn to be at home.**
Wendell Berry


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.3 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.7 EASTERN KAZAKHSTAN
5.0 STATE OF YAP, MICRONESIA
5.1 BANDA SEA

Yesterday -
5/29/12 -
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 NORTHERN ITALY
5.5 NORTHERN ITALY
5.8 NORTHERN ITALY
5.9 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.6 KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA REGION

5/28/12 -
5.1 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.9 TONGA
5.3 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, ARGENTINA
6.7 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, ARGENTINA

5/27/12 -
5.3 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA

5/26/12 -
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
6.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 NORTH OF SVALBARD
5.1 LOYALTY ISLANDS

5/25/12 -
5.1 NORWEGIAN SEA
5.0 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Supervolcanoes 'can grow in just hundreds of years' - The largest volcanoes on our planet may take as little as a few hundred years to form and erupt. These "supervolcanoes" were thought to exist for as much as 200,000 years before releasing their vast underground pools of molten rock.
Findings suggest that the magma pool beneath the supervolcano site of Long Valley in California erupted within as little as hundreds of years of forming. That eruption is estimated to have happened about 760,000 years ago, and would have covered half of North America in its ash. Such super-eruptions can release thousands of cubic kilometres of debris - hundreds of times larger than any eruption seen in the history of humanity.
Eruptions on this scale could release enough ash to influence the global weather for years, and one theory holds that the Lake Toba eruption in Indonesia about 70,000 years ago had long-term effects that nearly wiped out humans altogether.
Enormous eruptions such as that at Yellowstone result in "calderas", which can become huge lakes Initially, the magma pools are nearly purely liquid rock, with few bubbles or re-crystallised minerals. Over time, crystals develop, but the process stops at the point of the eruption. As a result, the characteristic development time of these crystals can also give an estimate of how long a magma pool existed before erupting.
Because the processes and timescales of quartz formation in the extraordinary underground conditions of a magma pool are well-known, the team was able to determine how long the crystals were forming within Long Valley's supervolcano before being spewed out in the eruption. Their estimates suggest the quartz formed over a range of time between 500 and 3,000 years.
"Our study suggests that when these exceptionally large magma pools form they are ephemeral and cannot exist very long without erupting. The fact that the process of magma body formation occurs in historical time, instead of geological time, completely changes the nature of the problem."
At present, geologists do not believe that any of Earth's known giant magma pools are in imminent danger of eruption, but the results suggest future work to better understand how the pools develop, and aim ultimately to predict devastating super-eruptions.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Atlantic -
-Post-tropical cyclone Beryl - this is the last advisory - Beryl was located about 40 mi...65 km WSW of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

Sunday, May 27, 2012

No updates Monday and Tuesday this week.
Have a happy Memorial Day!


A small asteroid will buzz by Earth on Monday at a distance of roughly 18,000 miles — just close enough to make sky watchers wince a bit. The moon is about 239,000 miles away. “Small” for an asteroid is about 80 feet in radius. An astronomy blogger assures us this is not Armageddon. "Let me stress, as always, that there is essentially zero chance of impact here. A miss like this is still a miss, so don’t fret over what will no doubt be a slew of panicky doomsday sites and videos that will pop up about this rock — that happens every single time we get a near-Earth pass of an asteroid, and yet we’re still here! If we see one really and truly on its way to an impact, trust me, I’ll let you know."

**Be joyful because it is humanly possible.**
Wendell Berry


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.3 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA

Yesterday -
5/26/12 -
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
6.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION [this follows a 6.4 and 6.0 last Sunday & a 6.0 on Wednesday]
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 NORTH OF SVALBARD
5.1 LOYALTY ISLANDS

5/25/12 -
5.1 NORWEGIAN SEA
5.0 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND

Strongest earthquake in years hits northwest of Norway, no damage. A strong 5.1 earthquake struck the Norwegian Sea northwest of Norway on late Thursday evening, making it one of the strongest tremors to hit the region in recent years.

Fear returns in quake-hit Italy - Two new strong aftershocks rattled north-east Italy overnight on Thursday, sending people outdoors and further damaging buildings hit by a weekend earthquake. The aftershocks struck around midnight (22.00 GMT) with the first one measuring 4.3 and the second 3.2, and local media said a total of 18 aftershocks had hit the area during the night. “The fear has returned,” said the mayor of the Finale Emilia town that was worst hit by Sunday's quake that killed six people and left thousands homeless. “We're taking a step backwards and as long as there isn't a bit more calm we won't be able to get out of the situation. We're trying to convince people to return to their homes if these haven't been damaged, but if the aftershocks continue, this will be impossible."
The makeshift dwellings set up in the aftermath of Sunday's quake are completely filled and entire families camped the night in their cars following the aftershocks. The “red zone” that the authorities established in the centre of the city, prohibiting access because of a high risk of damaged buildings collapsing, was enlarged again on Thursday after being reduced the previous day. The Italian government on Tuesday declared a 60-day state of emergency in the region hit by the quake and promised 50 million euros ($63 million) in aid to help rebuild houses and family-owned factories. Sunday's quake has led 6,000 people to camp out in temporary shelters.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Mexico's famed Popocatepetl volcano spewed ash on nearby towns and villages on Thursday (May 24), as officials mulled the possibility of evacuations. Over 20 ash and smoke emissions were reported throughout the day.

Crystals found in magma chambers may help scientists predict volcanic eruptions - Examining crystals formed deep within volcanoes could give a year's warning of impending eruptions. Crystals often grow within magma chambers, large crevices of searing hot fluid rock beneath volcanoes. Chemical analysis of the crystals revealed evidence of pulses of magma into a growing chamber within the volcano. Peaks in crystal growth were found to correlate with increased seismicity and gas emissions in the months prior to the eruption. More than 500 million people live close to volcanoes that could erupt with little or no clear warning, causing widespread devastation and even global effects on climate.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Atlantic -
Subtropical storm Beryl was located about 270 mi...435 km E of Jacksonville, Florida. The center of Beryl is expected to approach the southeastern coast of the United States today and then make landfall tonight or Monday. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Dangerous surf conditions are expected along the coast from northeastern Florida to North Carolina over the remainder of the Memorial Day weekend. Beryl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along the southeastern coast of the United States from northern Florida through southeastern North Carolina.

In the Pacific -
Tropical storm 03w (Sanvu) was located approximately 160 nm east of Chichi Jima, Japan.

Tropical storm lashed Mexico's coast - Bud weakened to a tropical storm Friday as heavy rain began to pelt a string of beach resorts and small mountain villages on Mexico's Pacific coast south of Puerto Vallarta.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

U.S. - Residents near a privately owned New Mexico ghost town were ordered Saturday to evacuate as a blaze in the Gila National Forest continued to burn erratically, as Colorado crews took to fighting a new fire along the Utah-Colorado border. The Whitewater-Baldy Complex fire has shrunk slightly to 82,000 acres but is still 0 percent contained because of weather conditions. The evacuation of Mogollon, a privately owned ghost town, was ordered due to extreme wind around the southwestern New Mexico fire. Four helicopters and more than 500 firefighters from around the state were on hand to fight the blaze but still had to contend with "extreme conditions."
Cities, as far away as Albuquerque, remained under a health alert until this afternoon due to smoke from the fire, which has spread across the state. State officials were warning residents during the Memorial Day weekend to limit outdoor activities, especially if smoke was visible. Meanwhile on Saturday, crews in Colorado battled a wildfire that has scorched more than 3,000 acres of rugged canyon land near the Colorado-Utah border. The fire started Friday afternoon and is burning in a remote area near Paradox. It is not threatening any structures, and no injuries have been reported.
In California, higher humidity and light winds were helping firefighters get ahead of a stubborn wildfire that has charred 4,100 acres of tinder-dry grass and brush in rural San Diego County. It was 30 percent contained. No injuries or damage to structures were reported, and the fire was not moving toward any homes as it burned southeast on Saturday.
Arizona fire officials said a cold front arriving over the state late Friday was providing additional relief to firefighters battling the Gladiator Fire, a blaze that has charred 16,000 acres and is now 40 percent contained. Electricity has been restored to some areas.

Canada - Extreme Conditions. The hot and dry weather has created extreme fire behaviour in Northeastern Ontario. There is no immediate relief in sight as the weather pattern is expected to continue into the weekend.

Friday, May 25, 2012

**As soon as the generals and the politicos
can predict the motions of your mind, lose it.
Leave it as a sign to mark the false trail,
the way you didn’t go. Be like the fox
who makes more tracks than necessary,
some in the wrong direction.**
Wendell Berry


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.1 NORWEGIAN SEA
5.0 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND

Yesterday -
5/24/12 -
6.2 GREENLAND SEA
5.2 NEUQUEN, ARGENTINA

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Pacific -
-Category 3 Hurricane Bud was located about 170 mi...270 km SW of Manzanillo Mexico. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area by this afternoon. Bud is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 8 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. These rainfall amounts could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Swells generated by Bud are affecting portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

A low pressure system between the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern Florida has a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. The storm was strengthening in the Florida Keys and was forecast by some models to become a tropical cyclone and come up the Southeast coast. If Tropical Storm Beryl forms over the weekend, it could be one for the history books.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Australia - Melbourne soaked in WETTEST MAY DAY IN 17 YEARS. Melbourne also shivering through its coldest day since 2000. All roads are suffering from extremely wet conditions today.
Bizarrely, temperatures are set to rise across the evening as a low pressure cell over Melbourne clears and brings in slightly warmer temperatures that could see the mercury spike to 13 degrees later this evening. “It looks like at this stage it’s the coldest since the year 2000, but we’re expecting it may warm a couple of degrees as we head into the evening." And while only a few sprinkles of rain are still expected in Melbourne’s west for the rest of the day, the central and eastern parts of Melbourne can expect more solid falls across the evening.
Already the deluge has seen a little over 30mm fall on the CBD for the day, up to 38mm in Clayton South and up to 35mm in Altona. Meanwhile. high winds have assailed Melbourne’s bayside suburbs, with Frankston enduring gale-force gusts up to 83km/h just after 4pm and blasts up to 72km/h hitting Melbourne Airport. 27mm had fallen in Melbourne so far, with the original 50mm forecast unlikely to be fulfilled. Geelong has received 32.4mm since 9am. Essendon Airport is close behind with 32.2mm, followed by Avalon at 31.2mm.
“The key thing now is the wind. If there’s going to be any damage in Melbourne its likely to be in the next few hours. Now, having had a lot rain we’re facing a lot of risk of damage from the wind, especially around the eastern bayside. It's very exposed south-westerly winds." Minor flooding and property damage is widespread throughout Melbourne and the Geelong region.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Canada - Forest fire Danger high to extreme in northeast region; portions evacuated. Hot and dry weather this spring has led to an early abundance of forest fires throughout northeastern Ontario.

SPACE WEATHER -

Newly discovered 26 meter asteroid 2012 KP24 will pass by the earth on May 28 at only 1/10th the distance to the moon. (Orbital path )

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Just the quakes today due to the continuous overnight line of thunderstorms.

**A corporation, essentially, is a pile of money
to which a number of persons have sold their moral allegiance.
Wendell Berry


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

Odd locations of the quakes lately - map
[For the fourth day in a row, solar activity remains low.]

This morning -
No quakes 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
5/23/12 -
5.6 WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
6.0 WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
5.6 KURIL ISLANDS
5.2 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
6.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.0 SOUTHERN PERU

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Pacific -
-Tropical storm Bud was located about 385 mi...620 km SW of Manzanillo Mexico.
-Typhoon 03w (Sanvu) was located approximately 375 nm south-southwest of Iwo To, Japan.

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Why Italy's Earthquake Was Weird - The powerful shaking was a first for the region in centuries — and fairly surprising to seismologists. A strong and UNUSUALLY shallow earthquake struck northern Italy over the weekend, fracturing pavement, sending torrents of brick and rubble raining down from buildings, and killing seven people.
Data indicate the magnitude 6.0 quake, which struck just after 4 a.m. local time on Sunday (May 20), just north of Bologna, was a thrust quake — the type of earthquake caused when two tectonic plates smash together — yet it occurred at a depth of just 3 miles (5 kilometers). "It is kind of surprising that it's that shallow, because it's pretty far from the plate boundary. Normally we expect things to get deeper as they move northward."
The quake hit about 470 miles (750 km) north of the plate boundary which runs along the sole of Italy's "boot." It is here that the African plate is plowing slowly northward, crashing into the Eurasian plate. The shallower a quake, the more damage it can cause. "If a quake is 500 kilometers deep, and you're right on top of it, you're going to feel it a lot less strongly than if it's 5 kilometers deep. As the seismic energy moves through the ground some of it is dissipated."
The strong quake rocked an area with a long history of earthquakes, yet one that has kept relatively quiet for hundreds of years. "There has not been a whole lot of action in that area. The fact that they do have records of earthquakes going back a couple thousand years shows this area hasn't been seismically active for a long time." Thousands of people were displaced by the quake, and many people spent the night in tents hurriedly erected on soccer fields.
After the deadly 6.3-magnitude L'Aquila earthquake in 2009, Italian officials put several Italian scientists on trial for manslaughter for not providing better warnings ahead of the deadly shaking, a move that has caused an outcry in the international scientific community. The two Italian quakes were caused by different geological mechanisms. The L'Aquila earthquake was caused when massive rock faces jerked away from one another, where as the recent earthquake was caused by their collision. Several moderate aftershocks have rocked the affected region, and it's not clear if this recent earthquake is a harbinger of things to come. "We don't know if this is going to trigger more activity in this area or not. We would expect to see aftershocks in the area for a while." There have already been at least 100 aftershocks. (map)

**You can best serve civilization
by being against what usually passes for it.**
Wendell Berry


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.0 SOUTHERN PERU

Yesterday -
5/22/12 -
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA
5.6 BULGARIA

5/21/12 -
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.3 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

Italy surveys damage amid dozens of aftershocks - Firefighters, surveyors, engineers and volunteers struggled through nearly continuous aftershocks Monday to catalog damage and deter looters one day after an earthquake killed seven people and left more than 6000 homeless. Photos

Japan quake aftershock tally exceeds 5000. The Sunday (May 20) quake of magnitude 6.4 would be the largest aftershock since March 14, when a magnitude-6.9 earthquake hit the region.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Guatemala Eruption "Largest in Years" for Fuego Volcano - Erupting Fuego Volcano has prompted alerts and flight restrictions in Guatemala near the nation's capital. An "orange" alert has been posted for Fuego, which began erupting on Saturday.

Is an eruption at Costa Rica's Turrialba Volcano imminent? - Costa Rica’s National Seismological Network has upgraded the color threat level to yellow of Turrialba Volcano, in the province of Cartago east of the capital. A threat level of yellow means that the National Seismological Network believes an eruption is “probable” in a matter of days, weeks or a few months. The upgrade in the threat level is due to “important changes in seismic activity of Volcano Turrialba associated with the movement of fluids, gas and magma beneath the surface, different from that observed in past years."
Temperatures around some fumaroles on the volcano have risen to as much as 800° Celsius, accompanied by eruptions of ash. High-temperature emissions of volcanic gases including sulfur dioxide have increased, causing incandescence in some of the fumaroles. The internal wall of the active crater is very weak due to hydrothermal changes in the volcano. This could mean a major eruption could jettison material into the atmosphere. Turrialba is the only volcano in the country currently with a yellow threat-level indicator. An upgrade to red would mean an eruptions is imminent. (photo)

Indonesia - Ailments Spread Among Refugees of Sirung Eruption. Various ailments, including coughs and other respiratory conditions, have affected hundreds of people seeking safety in temporary shelters after the eruption of Mount Sirung on Pantar island in the Eastern Nusa Tenggara District of Alor.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Pacific -
-Tropical Storm Bud was located about 435 mi...700 km SSW of Manzanillo Mexico.
-Tropical Storm 03w (Sanvu) was located approximately 495 nm south of Iwo To, Japan.

Tropical Storm Bud is maintaining maximum sustained winds near 40 mph amid predictions that it will strengthen and could become a hurricane by Wednesday night. Less than a week after the start of the eastern Pacific hurricane season, tbe tropical storm formed off Mexico.

Tropical Storm Sanvu passes Guam, strengthens - Tropical Depression 03W in the western North Pacific did exactly what forecasters expected over the last twenty-four hours: the tropical disturbance in the Marianas region became a tropical storm named Sanvu and passed west of Guam on a northwesterly track.

Monday, May 21, 2012

INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVE - An interpanetary shock wave, possibly associated with the M5-class solar flare of May 17th, swept past Earth on May 20th around 0200 UT. The shock's arrival caused geomagnetic activity around the poles, and several outbreaks of high-latitude auroras. [In case you were wondering, the 6.0 quake in Italy occurred on May 20th at 0203 UT.]

**Whether we and our politicians know it or not,
Nature is party to all our deals and decisions,
and she has more votes, a longer memory,
and a sterner sense of justice than we do.**
Wendell Berry

No update on Tuesday this week.


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.3 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN.

Yesterday -
5/20/12 -
Continuing aftershocks in Italy
5.2 NORTHERN ITALY
5.2 NORTHERN ITALY
6.1 NORTHERN ITALY
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.6 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
6.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
5.0 VANUATU
5.1 EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS
5.3 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION

Aftershocks rock Italy earthquake zone - Aftershocks continued to be felt in northern Italy on Sunday after the strong earthquake in the early hours killed six, injured more than 50 and reduced historic churches and castle towers, as well as warehouses and factories, to rubble. The earthquake struck the northern Italian region of Emilia Romagna.
Northeast Italy was shaken by it's BIGGEST QUAKE SINCE THE 1300s - The region around Bologna was hit by one of the worst quakes to hit northeast Italy in hundreds of years.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Guatemala - Fuego volcano had it's LARGEST ERUPTION IN 10 YEARS. Fuego volcano had a major eruption on Saturday (19 May). The eruption was one of its largest in recent years since the start of near continuous activity in 2002.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Alberto was located about 85 mi...135 km ENE of St. Augustine, Florida.

In the Pacific -
Tropical Depression Two-E was located about 525 mi...845 km S of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto churned off the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina on Sunday, and heavy rain and dangerous surf were expected even though forecasters said it had lost strength. Tropical Storm Alberto was meandering off the coast of South Carolina, but expected to stay offshore, and forecasters Sunday canceled the tropical storm watch for coastal areas.

Philippines - Flash floods and landslides threatened extreme northern Luzon on Sunday, even as the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration continued to keep track of a weather disturbance off Mindanao.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Scientists have identified thousands of sites in the Arctic where methane that has been stored for many millennia is bubbling into the atmosphere. The methane has been trapped by ice, but is able to escape as the ice melts. Researchers say this ancient gas could have a significant impact on climate change.
Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas after CO2 and levels are rising after a few years of stability. There are many sources of the gas around the world, some natural and some man-made, such as landfill waste disposal sites and farm animals. Tracking methane to these various sources is not easy. Using aerial and ground-based surveys, the team identified about 150,000 methane seeps in Alaska and Greenland in lakes along the margins of ice cover.
Local sampling showed that some of these are releasing the ancient methane, perhaps from natural gas or coal deposits underneath the lakes, whereas others are emitting much younger gas, presumably formed through decay of plant material in the lakes. "We observed most of these cryosphere-cap seeps in lakes along the boundaries of permafrost thaw and in moraines and fjords of retreating glaciers."
Warming in the Arctic is releasing this long-stored carbon. "If this relationship holds true for other regions where sedimentary basins are at present capped by permafrost, glaciers and ice sheets, such as northern West Siberia, rich in natural gas and partially underlain by thin permafrost predicted to degrade substantially by 2100, a very strong increase in methane carbon cycling will result, with potential implications for climate warming feedbacks."
The region stores vast quantities of the gas in different places - in and under permafrost on land, on and under the sea bed, and - as evidenced by the latest research - in geological reservoirs. "The Arctic is the fastest warming region on the planet, and has many methane sources that will increase as the temperature rises. This is yet another serious concern: the warming will feed the warming."
How serious and how immediate a threat this feedback mechanism presents is a controversial area, with some scientists believing that the impacts will not be seen for many decades, and others pointing out the possibility of a rapid release that could swiftly accelerate global warming. (photo)

Sunday, May 20, 2012

Japan - "The existence of the No. 4 reactor has become A MAJOR NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUE FOR THE ENTIRE WORLD that does not take a back seat even to North Korea's missile issue," says a professor emeritus at Tokaigakuen University who once served as Japan's ambassador to Switzerland. He had called for a halt to operations at the Hamaoka nuclear power plant even before the Great East Japan Earthquake struck last year. "If an accident should occur at the No. 4 reactor, it could be called THE START OF THE ULTIMATE CATASTROPHE FOR THE WORLD," he said in March.
A senator from the U.S. state of Oregon believes that there is a serious and unresolved understatement of the earthquake risk at Fukushima. He visited the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant on April 6. He sent a letter dated April 16 to Japan's ambassador to the United States that said the storage pool holding spent nuclear fuel at the No. 4 reactor could collapse if the reactor building was hit by another major arthquake or tsunami. The senator warned that emissions of radioactive materials in such an event would be much greater than after last year's accident. The letter also said that work should be accelerated to remove the nuclear fuel from the pool and stated that the United States was prepared to provide all forms of support for such efforts. An expert says that if radiation spewed from nuclear fuel in the No. 4 reactor pool because of insufficient cooling, the total amount of cesium-137 emitted would be at least 10 times the amount released during the Chernobyl disaster.
Compared with the No. 1 to No. 3 reactors at the nuclear plant, which all experienced meltdowns, the No. 4 reactor was not seriously damaged by the March 11, 2011, quake and tsunami because it was undergoing a periodic inspection at the time. However, the No. 4 reactor building houses a storage pool containing 1,535 spent fuel rods, the largest number of any of the reactors. An explosion and fire at the No. 4 reactor blew away the walls and roof of the steel-reinforced concrete building, so the reactor building was hit by major structural damage. Moreover, the storage pool is still not covered and remains exposed to the atmosphere. That situation has raised serious questions about what would happen if another quake with an intensity of 7 struck the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant.
"If the storage pool should collapse and the 1,535 fuel rods began burning in the atmosphere, an ENDLESS amount of radiation would be emitted. Of course, THAT WOULD MEAN THAT TOKYO WOULD BECOME UNLIVABLE. Just 50 meters from the No. 4 reactor is the common pool for the No. 1 to No. 6 reactors. The common pool holds 6,375 spent nuclear fuel rods. If a fire should occur at the No. 4 reactor pool, the common pool would also not stand a chance." That is the potential crisis at the No. 4 reactor that is causing so much fear around the world. In fact, immediately after last year's accident, the biggest concern raised by the United States was the storage pool at the No. 4 reactor.
Cooling of the storage pool has now been maintained. But a U.S. nuclear engineer who visited Japan in February said the nuclear fuel pool at the No. 4 reactor still HAS THE POWER TO PHYSICALLY SPLIT THE JAPANESE ARCHIPELAGO. He said the spent nuclear fuel in the No. 4 reactor pool is equivalent to several reactor cores and contains radiation equal to the amount released in the atmosphere by ALL past nuclear experiments. He has also written that the No. 4 reactor building's structure has weakened, the building is tilted, and that he has advised friends in Tokyo to immediately evacuate should the No. 4 reactor collapse.
TEPCO on April 26 issued a press release that disputed the claims. "The No. 4 reactor building is not tilted and it, including the storage pool, will not be destroyed by a quake." According to the release, measurements were taken to confirm that the floor where the storage pool is located is parallel to the water surface of the pool. TEPCO officials also explained that the steel support at the base of the pool and concrete wall had been reinforced by last July, which has increased by 20 percent the leeway against a possible quake. In addition, they conducted a simulation exercise that showed that even if a lower-6 intensity quake were to strike the plant again, it would not collapse. TEPCO has also begun work to cover the entire No. 4 reactor building in order to start removing the spent nuclear fuel from the storage pool. Work to remove the fuel rods could begin as soon as next year. However, one problem is that TEPCO’s information is now generally greeted with doubts.
In the United States, plans have been devised to set up a neutral and independent evaluation committee consisting of experts from around the world to look into the situation at the Fukushima nuclear plant and consider ways to resolve the problems there. Such moves show that many feel TEPCO and the Japanese government can no longer be depended upon to deal with the accident. "Since TEPCO is, after all, a for-profit company, it cannot be said to be making every possible effort. There is no time to waste. Knowledge from around the world should be gathered as soon as possible to begin the work of removing the nuclear fuel from the storage pool."

**The care of the Earth is our most ancient and most worthy,
and after all, our most pleasing responsibility.
To cherish what remains of it and to foster its renewal
is our only hope.**
Wendell Berry


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
Continuing aftershocks in Italy (23 so far)
5.2 NORTHERN ITALY
6.1 NORTHERN ITALY
5.6 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS
5.3 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION

Yesterday -
5/19/12 -
5.0 NORTH OF HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.9 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.9 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE

5/18/12 -
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 PANAMA
6.4 OFF COAST OF AISEN, CHILE

A strong earthquake rocked a large swathe of northern Italy early on Sunday, causing at least three deaths and bringing about the collapse of rural factories and ancient bell towers in towns. The epicenter of the quake, which struck at 4:04 a.m. (0204 GMT) and had a magnitude of 6.0, was in the plains near Modena in the Po River Valley and the tremors were felt in nearby regions. It was the strongest quake to hit Italy in three years. One person working a night shift died in the collapse of a factory and two were killed when a modern ceramics factory made of steel crumpled. Rescue officials were checking reports that other people were buried under rubble.
There was serious damage to historic buildings such as the 14th century Estense Castle in the town of San Felice Sul Panaro, near the epicentre. There were fears that one of the towers of the famous mediaeval castle, the town's biggest attraction, could collapse. The town's main church was also severely damaged. Thousands of people living in the area rushed into the streets after the quake, which shook the major towns of Bologna, Modena, Ferrara, Rovigo, Verona and Mantua. No serious damage was reported in the larger, heavily populated towns and cities. A series of strong aftershocks hit the area, the strongest measuring 5.2, and local mayors ordered residents to stay out of their homes. The quake was centred 22 miles north-northwest of Bologna at a relatively shallow depth of 6.3 miles. The last major earthquake to hit Italy was a 6.3 magnitude quake in the central Italian city of L'Aquila in 2009, which killed nearly 300 people.

6-magnitude quake in Azerbaijan destroyed over 3000 facilities - 6-point earthquake occurred 15 kilometers south of Zagatala at 7:46 pm on 18 May. A 7-point quake that happened on 7 May destroyed or made unusable more than 3,000 homes and facilities. "The quake has led to collapse of buildings that have come to an emergency or a state of dilapidation from the 7-point quake. Yesterday the Service recorded a 6-magnitude quake, which has become a consequence of deep-crustal shear. On the surface, it was felt at the level of 5.4 points. As we expected, it is natural stress relief occurring after a large earthquake. Aftershocks, even such strong as yesterday’s quake, may continue in the epicenter of disaster for 2-3 months or more."

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Indonesia's Mount Marapi volcano, located in the province of West Sumatra, erupted early Friday at 7:15 am local time, lasting for nearly ten minutes.

The Fuego volcano in Guatemala has begun shooting lava and columns of ash into the air, and authorities have raised the alert level in the area. The volcano overlooks the tourist city of Antigua and is one of Central America's most active volcanoes. Fuego shot ash 5000 metres into the air. Lava flows reached up to 1,000 metres in length. Authorities have raised the alert level because Fuego is in an effusive stage. The measure involves closing nearby highways, installing monitoring stations and readying emergency workers. No evacuations have been ordered.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES -

Mysterious small tremors in the most earthquake-prone areas on Earth may be the cause of surprisingly large tsunamis, researchers say. These findings might also shed light on the huge tsunami generated by the disastrous magnitude 9.0 quake that hit Japan in 2011.
Nearly all of the 10 largest recorded earthquakes on Earth happened along subduction zones, where one of the tectonic plates making up the planet's surface is diving beneath another. The shallow regions of these zones are often not seismically active by themselves, but occasionally strange tremors are recorded from these locales that are rich in very-low-frequency seismic waves. These shallow areas also seem to be home to so-called tsunami earthquakes, which generate tsunamis far stronger than one would expect for the amount of seismic energy they release. The Keicho quake of 1605 that caused disastrous tsunamis in Japan and killed thousands might have been one such earthquake.
Scientists in Japan used three ocean-bottom seismometers to analyze a swarm of very-low-frequency events in 2009. These occurred in the shallowest parts of the Nankai Trough, a part of a subduction zone near southwestern Japan that is rocked by giant earthquakes every century or so — most recently in 1946, when a magnitude 8.2 event killed an estimated 1,300 people. The researchers discovered that the very-low-frequency quakes — ranging from magnitudes of 3.8 to 4.9 — can last 30 to 100 seconds. This is UNUSUALLY long when compared with the 1-to-2-second duration of ordinary earthquakes with comparable magnitudes.
Although these very-low-frequency quakes get their name from seismic waves detected on land, the researchers discovered these events are actually rich in high-frequency waves as well. High-frequency waves tend to weaken with distance as they go through matter, which is why land seismometers did not detect these waves but ocean seismometers closer to the quakes did. The long duration of the quakes and the high-frequency waves now seen from them suggest these events may be caused by fluid seeping into fractures in the rock, making it easier for parts of the earth to slip past each other and generate tsunami earthquakes.
These findings suggest that authorities should keep a closer eye on the shallow areas of subduction zones. For instance, the huge tsunamis generated by the magnitude 9.0 quake that struck Japan in 2011 might be due in significant part to a slip in the shallow parts of the Japan Trench lying east of the country's main island. "It is very important for us to monitor continuously seismic activities close to the trench. It is mitigation against unexpectedly large tsunami disasters."

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Atlantic -
Tropical Storm Alberto was located along the South Carolina coast. Dangerous surf conditions are possible along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina through Monday.

Alberto - Forecasters late Saturday issued a tropical storm watch for parts of the South Carolina coast after the first tropical storm of the 2012 hurricane season formed in the Atlantic, bringing an early start to the Atlantic hurricane season. Alberto is earliest-forming tropical storm in Atlantic since 2003. Top winds were 60 mph (97 kph), but it wasn't threatening land.

Tropical Depression Aletta Hung On; Another Potential Storm in Pacific - Tropical Depression Aletta hung on Friday, despite high shears and dry air. Meanwhile, another potential tropical disturbance is developing in the Pacific. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said that that Tropical Depression Aletta was better organized than it was 24 hours before. In fact, satellites placed the estimated strength back at Tropical Storm level. Tropical Depression level is sustained winds at 39 miles per hour or below. However, despite its potential to strengthen, forecasters believed that, eventually, Aletta would weaken and become a post-tropical remnant low in 36 to 48 hours. It is still not expected to affect any landmasses.
Meanwhile, a disturbance several hundred miles south and west of Acapulco is becoming more organized. Friday, the National Hurricane Center had the disturbance at a 40% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm within 48 hours. This disturbance was nearly stationary at the time.

Philippines - Potential cyclone could trigger flash floods, landslides in Visayas. State weather forecasters started tracking Saturday afternoon a potential cyclone - a low-pressure area - east of Mindanao.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Arizona - Nature gave firefighters a small reprieve Saturday from her incessant winds, allowing them to modestly trim the weeklong fire that has torched thousands of acres.

EU Wheat Settles At 11-month High On Weather Woes - European wheat futures soared Friday to close at their highest point for 11 months, as extreme weather in the former Soviet Union boosted sentiment, while Chicago also added support as the US market responded to domestic dryness concerns.

U.S. is most extreme in the weather stakes - Despite extreme weather, Australia is not as bad some other countries. Australia's weather is not as wild as a decade of drought, two years of floods and a series of cyclones suggests, a global study shows. Meteorologists at The Weather Channel performed an independent review of severe weather around the world, drawing on decades of data held by the World Meteorological Organisation.
The team ranked regions for bushfire, heatwaves, cyclones, tornados, rain, snow and temperature. "Many people think Australia is one of the most extreme climates in the world. People are surprised to find we're not number one. In many ways we're the lucky country, weather-wise. In North America they get blizzards, terrible tornados and hurricanes ... extreme weather on a bigger basis."
Australia made the top five in four of the eight categories, coming in at number one for bushfires, number three for heatwaves (where the top temperature exceeded the average maximum temperature by 5C for five or more consecutive days), and number five for the wettest location (Bellenden Ker in Queensland with 8352mm a year). The fourth-fastest cyclone, hurricane or typhoon to make landfall was Australia's tropical Cyclone Monica at 285km/h, after the US Hurricane Camille (310km/h) and Super Typhoons Joan and Megi at 295km/h that hit Taiwan and the Philippines.
Australia was not in the world's five driest locations, because even the driest area - around Lake Eyre - had occasional bursts of tropical rain. The US was the most extreme with the warm and humid Gulf of Mexico on one side and the cold, dry Canadian plains on another.

Friday, May 18, 2012

Mount St. Helens eruption anniversary today - People along the North Oregon coast and across the Northwest are remembering the violent eruption of Mt. St. Helens on May 18, 1980. The eruption shook the ground along the Oregon coast, sent ash falling into 11 states and killed 57 people.

**Don't own so much clutter that you will be
relieved to see your house catch fire.**
Wendell Berry


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.0 PANAMA
5.5 OFF COAST OF AISEN, CHILE

Yesterday -
5/17/12 -
5.1 SOUTHERN IRAN

Quake shakes up east Texas - A 4.3-magnitude earthquake rattled eastern Texas early Thursday. The quake, at a depth of three miles, was centered near Timpson, about 155 miles east-southeast of Dallas. It struck at 3:12 a.m. (4:13 a.m. ET). At least one building in Timpson showed damage, with a number of bricks falling to the street below. One resident said that bricks from her chimney came crashing through her roof. "There was a loud rumbling noise and then there was a lot of crashing.". Her 52-inch, wall-mounted TV was crushed. One woman was injured when she fell out of bed and cut her arm. And the Shelby County sheriff's office had reports of broken windows from the temblor.
The quake was the second to hit the area in a week. A 3.9 quake shook Timpson May 10. Thursday morning's earthquake was the third-strongest in East Texas history, surpassed only by quakes in 1957 and 1964. A University of Texas scientist said it's possible the most recent quakes are related to energy production activity in the area. "There are some injection wells in the part of the country where these earthquakes occurred. If they were very close to an injection well, that would suggest they were." Injection wells are used in the disposal of dirty water from energy production. Injection wells should not be confused with fracking, a process which involves injecting water, sand and some chemicals deep into the earth to crack shale rock, which frees oil and gas. "Fracking almost never causes quakes."
Swarm of quakes possible in East Texas in near future - A geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey's National Earthquake information Center said the two quakes in one week could indicate the area might see a swarm of quakes in the area over the next few weeks. Quakes strike areas where there are faults and there's an active fault system that runs through East Texas, stretching from Mount Enterprise along Texas Highway 84 to Timpson. It's called the Mount Enterprise Fault.
The fault is active and delivers low-level quakes, such as Thursday's, fairly regularly. The last one struck the area around 1994 and measured between 3.5 and 4 on the United States Geological Survey's equipment. USGS data shows there was a strong quake in the area in 1957 and then every few years there are small quakes that most people never realize have occurred. "These past two quakes have everyone a little uneasy right now. If we have another then it will really get people upset, because this is not something we are used to seeing like the folks out in California."

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Hawaii - Scientists are reporting a relatively high lava lake level at the Halema`uma`u crater vent over the past two days, following a summit inflation at Kilauea volcano.

Fastest Growing Volcano Spotted In New Zealand - Scientists have found a submarine volcano in New Zealand waters that has undergone THE FASTEST EPISODE OF COLLAPSE AND GROWTH EVER RECORDED AT A VOLCANO. The Monowai Cone, part of the Monowai Volcanic Centre, is a giant submarine volcano.

The 100th Anniversary Of Alaska's Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes - The state of Alaska is preparing for the centennial of massive volcanic eruptions that changed the global climate, spawned acid rain and buried the Ukak River Valley in June 1912.

Where the Ash from Iceland Volcano's Eruption Went - The huge eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano in spring 2010 spewed fine aerosol particles, sulfur-rich gases and ash, causing massive air travel disruptions across Europe. Researchers studying those emissions are now shedding light on how and where that ash traveled.
"The huge economic impact of this event shows the need to describe with precision how a volcanic plume spreads through the atmosphere." Scientists found that different types of particles spread over different regions at different times. For example, they found very fine sulfur-rich particles over Spain and Portugal in May 2010, toward the end of the eruption. Alternatively, ash particles that reached central Europe in April were more than 20 times larger than those fine particles. Ash, which is composed of the thicker particles, can cause severe damage to airplane engines. Fine particles, like those found over the Iberian Peninsula, are more dangerous to people on the ground because the particles are small enough to enter respiratory and circulation systems.
Together, the observations will help scientists develop and test models that predict where ash and other particles will travel after an eruption. "During the management of the crisis it became evident that there are still no precise models that provide real-time data for delimiting an affected airspace, for example." One team is developing a model known as Fall3d, which is especially important for air travel because it predicts the concentrations of aerosol particles on the ground and in the air at different times after an eruption. Researchers hope that fine-tuning this model will help airlines and transportation authorities make decisions in future eruptions.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Pacific -
Tropical Depression Aletta was located about 705 mi...1135 km SSW of the southern tip of Baja California.

Aletta has weakened to a tropical depression as it swirls far out over the Pacific. Aletta's maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 kph) with additional weakening expected.
First Storm of Hurricane Season Breaks Records - Tropical Storm Aletta became the first named tropical cyclone of the 2012 season in the Western Hemisphere when it formed well to the west of Mexico’s Pacific coast. While a marginal and unnamed disturbance formed over Indonesia’s Banda Sea during the previous week, Aletta’s formation broke a 41-day streak in which there were no named tropical cyclones anywhere on Earth. That was THE LONGEST STRETCH WITHOUT SUCH A STORM FOR THE PLANET IN AT LEAST 70 YEARS.
The last time there were as many as 38 consecutive storm-less days was in 1944, when global weather monitoring was still in its infancy. Aletta was named just as the northeast Pacific hurricane season was beginning on May 15, making it only the third storm to have formed by that date since records began in 1949. The storm attained maximum sustained winds of only about 45 mph before encountering wind sheer and cooler waters to the north. Those influences caused the hurricane season opener to dissipate far from any land areas.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Extreme Heat, Low Humidity Threaten Wildfire-Ravaged Arizona - Persistent heat, very low humidity and gusty winds will cause an extreme fire threat across Arizona and other areas of the West through the end of the week with a building 'ridge' of high pressure.

SPACE WEATHER -

SOLAR ECLIPSE THIS WEEKEND - On Sunday, May 20th, the Moon will pass in front of the Sun, producing an annular solar eclipse visible across the Pacific side of Earth. The path of annularity, where the sun will appear to be a "ring of fire," stretches from China and Japan to the middle of North America. In the United States, the eclipse begins at 5:30 pm PDT and lasts for two hours. Around 6:30 pm PDT, the afternoon sun will become a luminous ring in places such as Medford, Oregon; Chico, California; Reno, Nevada; St. George, Utah; Albuquerque, New Mexico, and Lubbock, Texas. Outside the narrow center line, the eclipse will be partial. Observers almost everywhere west of the Mississippi will see a crescent-shaped sun as the Moon passes by off-center.
Because this is not a total eclipse, some portion of the sun will always be exposed. To prevent eye damage, use eclipse glasses, a safely-filtered telescope, or a solar projector to observe the eclipse. Or look on the ground beneath leafy trees for crescent-shaped sunbeams and rings of light.

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Indonesia - Sumatra faces yet another risk -- major volcanic eruptions. The early April earthquake of magnitude 8.6 that shook Sumatra was a grim reminder of the devastating earthquakes and tsunami that killed tens of thousands of people in 2004 and 2005. Now a new study shows that the residents of that region are at risk from yet another potentially deadly natural phenomenon – major volcanic eruptions.
Researchers have documented six major volcanic eruptions in Sumatra over the past 35,000 years – most equaling or surpassing in explosive intensity the eruption of Washington's Mount St. Helens in 1980. "Sumatra has a number of active and potentially explosive volcanoes and many show evidence of recent activity. Most of the eruptions are small, so little attention has been paid to the potential for a catastrophic eruption. But our study found some of the first evidence that the region has a much more explosive history than perhaps has been appreciated."
Until this study, little was known about Sumatra's volcanic history – in part because few western scientists have been allowed access to the region. The most visible evidence of recent volcanic activity among the estimated 33-35 potentially active volcanoes are their steep-sided cones and lack of vegetation, indicating at least some minor eruptive processes. But in 2007, an expedition was permitted into the region and the researchers set out to explore the earthquake history of the region by studying sediment cores from the Indian Ocean. While searching the deep-sea sediment cores for "turbidites" – coarse gravel deposits that can act as a signature for earthquakes – they noticed unmistakable evidence of volcanic ash and began conducting a parallel investigation into the region's volcanic history.
"The ash was located only in certain cores, so the activity was localized. Yet the eruptions still were capable of spreading the ash for 300 kilometers or more, which gave us an indication of how powerful the explosive activity might have been." They found evidence of six major eruptions and estimated them to be at least from 3.0 to 5.0 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index. Mount St. Helens, by comparison, was 5.0.
The Indian Ocean region is certainly known to have a violent volcanic history. The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa between Sumatra and Java is perhaps the most violent volcanic explosion in recorded history, measuring 6.0 on the VEI and generating what many scientists believe to have been one of the loudest noises ever heard on Earth. Sumatra's own Toba volcano exploded about 74,000 years ago, generating a major lake – not unlike Oregon's own Crater Lake, but much larger. "It looks like a giant doughnut in the middle of Sumatra." umatra's volcanoes occasionally belch some ash and smoke, and provide comparatively minor eruptions, but residents there may not be fully aware of the potential catastrophic nature of some of its resident volcanoes. "Prior to 2004, the risk from a major earthquake were not widely appreciated except, perhaps, in some of the more rural areas. And earthquakes happen more frequently than major volcanic eruptions. If it hasn't happened in recent memory…"
The next step in the research is to work with scientists from the region to collect ash and volcanic rock from the island's volcanoes, and then match their chemical signature to the ash they discovered in the sediment cores. "Each volcano has a subtly different fingerprint, so if we can get the terrestrial data, we should be able to link the six major eruptions to individual volcanoes to determine the ones that provide the greatest risk factors."

**Do unto those downstream
as you would have those upstream do unto you.**
Wendell Berry


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
5/16/12 -
5.0 SOUTHERN ALASKA
5.2 SOUTH OF TONGA
5.8 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.

Chile - The magnitude-6.2 magnitude earthquake that hit on Monday damaged walls, shattered windows and knocked out electricity in parts of far-northern Chile and the Peruvian city of Tacna but no injuries or major damage were reported. The quake, which occurred at 6 a.m. local time (6 a.m. EDT; 1000 GMT), was centered 66 miles (107 kilometers) northeast of the city of Arica 98 kilometers (61 miles) underground. It was also felt in the Peruvian city of Arequipa and in the Bolivian capital of La Paz, 120 miles (200 kilometers) away. Some neighborhoods in Tacna, a city of 200,000 66 kilometers (44 miles) from the epicenter, suffered brief power outages. Broken windows and rocks shook loose onto highways.
The Chilean government emergency agency said about 250 people fled into the streets of Arica when the shaking started, but then returned to their homes. Arica's port and airport were functioning normally and Chile's Hydrographic and Oceanographic Service discounted the possibility of a tsunami. In the Tarapaca region, walls fell in some sectors and some roads were blocked by the quake, which also cut power to more than 3,000 homes in Arica. Power also was cut for a time in the Peruvian city of Tacna. A magnitude-7.1 quake struck central Chile on March 25 and in 2010, a magnitude-8.8 quake caused a tsunami that obliterated much of the downtown area of the coastal city of Constitucion.

Alaska - No injuries, damage after quake in Anchorage area. The Alaska Earthquake Information Center says the 4.6 magnitude quake occurred at 7:02 am Wednesday. It struck eight miles south of Anchorage. There were no immediate reports of damage or injuries.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Pacific -
Tropical Storm Aletta was located about 840 mi...1350 km SSW of the southern tip of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Aletta is weakening as it spins far out over the Pacific. The storm's maximum sustained winds decreased to near 40 mph (65 kph) Wednesday with gradual weakening expected.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Australia - Ocean temperature made Queensland floods worse. ABNORMALLY HIGH OCEAN TEMPERATURES off the coast of northern Australia contributed to the extreme rainfall that flooded three-quarters of Queensland over the summer of 2010-11, scientists report. A series of climate models found above average sea surface temperatures throughout December 2010 increased the amount of rainfall across the state by 25 per cent on average. While the study did not look at the cause of ocean warming in the region, a physical oceanographer said climate change could not be excluded as a possible driver of this extreme rainfall event.
Between December 23 and 28 many places experienced up to 400 millimetres of rain in a few days. "That [means] 100 millimetres of rain was attributable to sea surface temperatures." While the flooding occurred during ONE OF THE STRONGEST LA NINA EVENTS ON RECORD it was insufficient to produce the extreme rainfall recorded. The effect of the high sea surface temperatures coupled with the impact of a La Nina, both of which are associated with above average rainfall over eastern Australia, plus tropical cyclone Tasha, combined to create an extreme weather event.
The resulting floods stretched across 1.3 million square kilometres all the way to Brisbane, caused billions of dollars in damage and killed 35 people. Ocean temperatures off northern Australia were THE HIGHEST ON RECORD at the time of the Queensland floods. "While the La Nina event played a big role in this record ocean warmth, so too did the long-term warming trend over the past 50 years." Warmer sea surface temperatures increase the amount of moisture transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere. "If you've got the right winds they carry this moisture to land, and [because] land is hotter than the ocean during the day it will cause convection and rain."
While both simulations underestimated the amount of rain that fell in Queensland in December 2010, the model that used the higher sea surface temperatures came closest to the rainfall recorded in the region. "The model doesn't replicate the observations perfectly but it clearly shows what we saw, which was from Cairns to south-east QLD all [regions] received abnormally high precipitation." If increases in sea surface temperatures can be attributed to global warming, the probability of La Nina events producing extreme rainfall in the future would also rise.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -
Warming since 1950 'UNPRECEDENTED' in Australia - The rise in temperatures in and around Australia since 1950 has been unprecedented, a new study shows. No period during the past 1000 years matches the warming experienced in Australasia in the past 60 years. "Our study revealed that recent warming in a 1000-year context is HIGHLY UNUSUAL and cannot be explained by natural factors alone, suggesting a strong influence of human-caused climate change in the Australasian region." The researchers examined natural indicators, such as tree rings, corals and ice cores to look at temperatures over time.
The team compared the data with climate model simulations. To ensure the results were accurate, the team's reconstruction used 27 natural climate records which were calculated in 3000 different ways. The study is expected to help scientists better understand future climate variability too. The study is part of an international collaboration which aims to reconstruct the past 2000 years of climate in every part of the world.

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

**To be or not to be.**
Shakespeare
*Do be do be do.**
Sinatra


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.8 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.

Yesterday -
5/15/12 -
5.2 SOUTH OF TONGA
5.1 NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

Moderate earthquake in Tajikistan kills 1, destroys buildings. A moderate earthquake which struck remote towns in a mountainous region of Tajikistan on early Sunday morning has killed at least one person and buried dozens of animals.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Pacific -
Tropical Storm Aletta was located about 775 mi...1250 km S of the southern tip of Baja California.

Tropical storm Aletta - The Western Hemisphere's first tropical storm of 2012, named Aletta, formed just Tuesday from one of several well-organized thunderstorm clusters in the eastern Pacific. Aletta, a modest 40 mph storm, gained strength as it moved into the open ocean and away from land. It is not expected to intensify much more. Aletta was expected to start weakening today.

Since record keeping began in 1949, there have only been two tropical storms that have formed by May 15 — Hurricane Alma of 1990, and an unnamed 1996 storm.. The formation of Aletta ends a 41-day streak without a tropical storm anywhere in the world.

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

An early, short update for Tuesday.


**Commercial society creates prosperity
by harnessing our natural impulses:
fraud, luxury and pride.**
Bernard Mandeville


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

Yesterday -
5/14/12 -
5.3 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
6.2 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.0 KYUSHU, JAPAN
5.0 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.

TROPICAL STORMS

In the Pacific -
Tropical Depression One-E was located about 655 mi...1050 km SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico. The depression is becoming better organized and is expected to become a tropical storm.

Monday, May 14, 2012

**Aerodynamically, the bumble bee shouldn't be able to fly,
but the bumble bee doesn't know it so it goes on flying anyway.**
Mary Kay Ash


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.0 KYUSHU, JAPAN

Yesterday -
5/13/12 -
5.0 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.2 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.4 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION
5.4 SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Mexico volcano spews huge ash cloud, frightens villagers - The Popocatepetl volcano near Mexico City spewed huge plumes of ash and fiery rocks Saturday night, forcing a local airport to close down and terrifying local villagers already on edge after weeks of increased activity.

Eruption on Pagan Island, Mariana Islands - Satellites provide the only reliable observations of Pagan, as the island has been uninhabited since a major eruption forced residents to leave in 1981.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -
Brazil - Severe drought gripping northeastern Brazil - the WORST IN A HALF-CENTURY - is taking its toll on more than 1,100 towns, even triggering fighting in rural areas. An average of one person a day is being killed in "water wars" in rural areas, while scores of animals are wasting away before perishing. Short water supplies have devastated farm output, endangering the lives of local people and their livestock. Many people in the area have lost half their livestock, and the Brazilian government has reduced forecasts for corn, soy and bean crops. In Pernambuco, 66 municipalities are on water emergencies, rivers have run completely dry and animals looking for water in the riverbed can only find the odd muddy puddle. Local dams in the region are running dry, and abuses are rife. In one cited example, water truck drivers make deliveries - but only if customers promise to vote for certain local candidates.

Scientists Discover New Site of Potential Instability in West Antarctic Ice Sheet - A previously unknown sub-glacial basin that is almost the size of New Jersey residng beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet near the Weddell Sea has prompted scientists to reevaluate the location most at risk of collapse. “If we were to invent a set of conditions conducive to retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, this would be it.”
“With its smooth bed that slopes steeply toward the interior, we could find no other region in West Antarctica more poised for change than this newly discovered basin at the head of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf. The only saving grace is that losing the ice over this new basin would only raise sea level by a small percentage of the several meters that would result if the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet destabilized.” Despite the fact that the amount of ice stored within the newly discovered basin is less than that stored in other locations, it may still be closer to a tipping point.
“This is a significant discovery in a region of Antarctica that at present we know little about. The area is on the brink of change, but it is impossible to predict what the impact of this change might be without further work enabling better understanding of how the West Antarctic Ice Sheet behaves.”
The seaward edge of the newly discovered basin lies just inland of the ice sheet’s grounding line, where streams of ice flowing toward the sea begin to float. Two features of the basin, which is entirely below sea level, are particularly worrisome to scientists: First, like a cereal bowl, its edges slope down steeply. If the grounding line begins to retreat upstream, seawater will replace it and more ice will begin to float. The study’s authors predict that this positive feedback mechanism would sustain retreat of the ice sheet until eventually all of the ice filling the basin goes afloat. Second, the bed of the basin on which the ice rests is smooth. There are few big bumps, or “pinning points,” to hold back sliding ice. (maps)

SPACE WEATHER -

ASTEROID FLYBY - A 13-meter space rock from the asteroid belt was flying past our planet yesterday midway between Earth and the orbit of the Moon. There is no danger of a collision; at closest approach asteroid 2012 JU will be 190,000 km away.

Sunday, May 13, 2012

Possibly active fault under Mount Fuji to trigger big quake, landslide? - Mount Fuji, Japan's highest peak, may be sitting on a large, active fault that could trigger quakes and landslides that would change the mountain's shape and devastate nearby communities, the education ministry said on Thursday. A survey commissioned by the ministry found an 18-mile fault beneath Japan's highest mountain, believed by many to be sacred, and research results indicate it is likely to be active.
"We're not certain if it's an active fault. But there is a possibility ... A structural investigation near [the volcano] found a fault. Because there's a fault there, there's a chance that it's moving." If the fault sets off an earthquake, it could lead to a major landslide and hit communities at the foot of the 12,400-foot-high mountain. Further research is required, the official said. Little is known about the seismic structure under Mount Fuji because faults were buried by mudflows triggered by a huge landslide that occurred about 2,600 to 2,900 years ago, as well as by layers of volcanic ash.
However, scientists say there is evidence the mountain has collapsed in the past. "In this region, there is a stratum right above the fault that indicates that Mount Fuji has collapsed before." An earthquake in 1707 caused Fuji to erupt and that killed an estimated 20,000 people.

**Happy Mother's Day!**


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.2 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.2 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION
5.4 SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN

Yesterday -
5/12/12 -
5.0 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.7 TAJIKISTAN
5.8 TONGA REGION
5.5 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA

5/11/12 -
5.1 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.5 CYPRUS REGION
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS
5.4 ASSAM, INDIA
5.0 GANSU-QINGHAI BORDER REG, CHINA

New Zealand - A swarm of earthquakes has rattled the South Island but seismologists don't believe there is any cause for alarm. The latest quake struck just before 3pm and was centred in the Christchurch suburb of Cashmere. It measured 3.9 on the Richter scale but was strongly felt across the city as it occurred at a depth of just 5km. There were no immediate reports of damage from the quake but it left residents rattled as it was the first big aftershock to hit the city in some months. ''The noise was huge."
 ''I have been waiting for another biggie, let's hope it isn't a foreshock but just in case I am filling my water bottles and getting things ready." ''The whole building really shook and there was quite a bit of noise with it.'' Earlier in the day Southland was struck by two quakes, the largest of which measured 5.5 and was centred 40km west of Tuatapere at a depth of 12km. The ground shook vigorously but it was not a violent quake. ''It was very strong but nothing was thrown off the walls or fell off the shelves." The quake was preceded by a magnitude 2.8 quake centred in roughly the same area. A magnitude 4.3 quake also struck the Kaikoura region Saturday morning. It was centred 30km east of Kaikoura at a depth of 15km.
It is not unusual to see so many earthquakes in one day and it is unlikely the quakes were a forerunner to a more significant seismic event.

India - Moderate quake jolts northeast, 2 hurt, several buildings damaged in Assam. An earthquake measuring 5.4 on the Richter scale jolted some northeastern states, including Assam, in which at least two labourers were injured in a wall collapse while several buildings were damaged. One house collapsed and cracks appeared in some buildings in the quake, which had its epicentre in Guwahati, the main commercial city of the mineral- and tea-rich state of Assam.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

Odd 92L in the Atlantic - An area of disturbance called 92L is surprisingly well organized for this time of year and this far north [400 miles southwest of the Azores], but it shouldn't really surprise everyone that this is happening. SST anomalies are already 1-2C above average in that area, so it's MORE TYPICAL OF JULY as it is. Satellite reveals a tight, well organized core with great spiral banding, and showing a system that is already detaching from the front that it has been associated with for the past few days.
 It's sudden uptick in convection though is VERY UNNATURAL, and it looks well on it's way to become Sub-Tropical or Tropical Storm Alberto perhaps as soon as early today. Determining whether or not this is a warm-core system or a hybrid is difficult, but most if not all the of the phase-diagrams indicate that this system is transitioning from a symmetric cold core system to a symmetric warm core system, which is what a tropical cyclone is. However, given that the wind-radius and surface pressure is so far spread out, plus it's association with the front near by (similar to Sean in 2011), it would be sub-tropical in nature.
These systems are VERY RARE in the Atlantic. It would be only the third tropical storm to occur in May since 1981. It was first seen in 2005 with the infamous Hurricane Vince, but was once again seen in a very similar fashion in Tropical Storm Grace. In both cases, our basic understanding of tropical formations were defied when both of these systems developed in HIGHLY UNUSUAL locations, generally considered too hostile for formations, and thrived in those environments.
The dilemma exists however on how to name it. These systems are similar to Polar Lows, so determining the difference between the two is difficult. However, 92L does not meet the requirement exactly for a Polar Low, so what it is? For now, the NHC settles on it being a sub-tropical cyclone. In any case, the NHC will be waiting for consistency to name 92L. If it continues to look like this in say 6 hours, it is probable that it could be named as soon as Saturday night.
The storm's heavy thunderstorms have weakened some during the afternoon, making it less likely NHC will be inclined to name it; the fact that 92L is over waters of 66°F (19°C) hurts its chances. Forecasters believe it has a 40 percent chance of turning into a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. 92L does not have long to live in either case, as hostile wind shear should overcome this system in 48 hours or so. (satellite photo)

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Afghanistan - Flash flooding in the northern Afghan province of Takhar killed at least 20 people and injured fifteen others. Five people are also believed to be missing after the flood struck late Thursday. Houses and livestock were swept away by the raging waters. "Dozens of villages have been hit by the flood, I'm worried that the death toll will go up."
 The flood was the second to strike the region this month. On May 6, 40 people died and dozens more were missing after flooding in the nearby Sar e Pol province. Some 100 people have died in flooding in Afghanistan over the past month, as snow thaws in the lead up to the warmer season lead to rising water levels.

China - The death toll from hail and rain storms in a mountainous area in northwest China has risen to 40. Another 18 people are missing and power supplies and telecommunications networks have been disrupted in Minxian county in Gansu province. Nearly 30,000 people were evacuated following the storm, which battered the county on Thursday. Relief teams have taken blankets and clothing into the area.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -
Could a Changing Climate Set Off Volcanoes and Quakes? - A British scientist argues that global warming could lead to a future of more intense volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. And while some dismiss his views as preposterous, he points to a body of recent research that shows a troubling link between climate change and the Earth’s most destructive geological events. There is, he argues, growing evidence to incriminate changing climate in the planet’s most destructive geological events.
Melting ice sheets and changes in sea level can, he maintains, set off the largest earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Indeed, thanks to climate change, a human hand may already be at work. The most solid evidence for climatic influence on geology comes from the end of the last ice age, around 12,000 years ago. This period of rapid climate change, when ice sheets retreated from much of the planet, coincided with a sudden outburst of geological activity. The incidence of volcanic eruptions in Iceland increased around 50-fold for about 1,500 years, before settling back to previous levels.
He makes the case that during the long preceding glaciation, the weight of ice some two kilometers thick over Iceland maintained high pressures underground that kept magma at the root of volcanoes solid and suppressed eruptions. But as the ice melted, the huge.weight was released and the land surface lifted, sometimes by hundreds of meters. This reduced the pressure below. “Reduction of pressure enabled mantle rocks to melt, creating a zone of magma upwelling underneath Iceland.” Magma production increased 30-fold – that magma, the argument goes, burst out in a spectacular epidemic of volcanic eruptions.
Similar, though less pronounced, surges in volcanic activity occurred at that time across much of the planet, wherever large ice sheets or small tropical glaciers melted. From the Eifel mountains of Germany to the Chilean Andes, and from California to Kamchatka, volcanoes were awakened. While the planet’s volcanoes have been relatively peaceful during the long stable climate since then, he warns that we need to watch out as the world starts to warm once more.
“Volcanoes can be incredibly sensitive to tiny changes to their external environment, constantly teetering on the edge of stability." In the Northern Hemisphere, eruptions happen most frequently between November and April. The reason, they say, is shifts in water round the globe. This movement of water slightly squashes or releasing the land beneath, at times pushing magma to the surface rather like toothpaste in a tube.
Over the past 40 years, El Nino cycles in the tropical Pacific Ocean have triggered a regular seismic response as the pressure of water has changed with short-term sea level fluctuations. There are more earthquakes in the eastern Pacific in the months after the cycle lowers sea levels in the area by a few centimeters, which flexes the plates beneath. A 2009 study concluded that something as seemingly insignificant as low atmospheric pressure in the heart of typhoons was sufficient to trigger slow earthquakes in strata east of Taiwan.
Some researchers are unconvinced by all this. Some geologists have expressed skepticism about any immediate cause for concern. So how scared should we be? The short answer is nobody knows. While clearly some geological responses to surface events could occur fast, others could take thousands of years to emerge.