Friday, June 29, 2012

Extreme U. S. weather. Epic fires. Withering heat. June has become a month of superlatives, possibly with no end in sight. When the Waldo Canyon Fire erupted Tuesday night, turning the northwest quadrant of Colorado Springs into a monstrous neighborhood-consuming inferno, the El Paso County sheriff described it as “EPIC.” When the High Park Fire exploded across 8,000 acres on its first day, it was described as the UNPARALLELED wildfire Larimer County has always feared. And then there are the weather extremes: Triple-digit temperatures baked Fort Collins three days in a row — June 23, 24 and 25 — for only the second time in history, as Denver tied its all-time record high of 105 degrees this week.
So, is all this a grotesque display of climate change incinerating Colorado right before our eyes? That’s what climate scientists are asking, but the answer isn’t simple. “They’re realizing that this is a question that the public should be thinking about and should be hearing from scientists on. One thing is clear - History is colored with severe droughts, but 2012, with its DRIEST-ON-RECORD spring, is TRULY EXTRAORDINARY. You sit there and say, well if this is the warmest and driest for that time period, what can we blame that on?"
The International Panel on Climate Change was bold earlier in the decade when it predicted that global warming would produce early snowmelt and drier conditions across the Southwest, tying that to more frequent and larger wildfires across the region. “Extremes happen independent of climate change, but they would happen more often if the word of the climate scientists is held up, and the data we’re seeing so far with 2002 and 2012 not far apart says, well, you gotta at least perk up and pay attention."
“I would say that what climate change has done here is make the current scenario more likely to occur than it has (in the past),” but the current extreme conditions in Colorado can’t necessarily be attributed to climate change. Climate change means summers will get hotter, droughts will get drier and rainy seasons will get rainier. “This is one of those extreme cases. The key is, people ought to think of change not as a slow change in the average, but as changes in the extremes. We’re seeing changes in the maximum temperatures occurring more frequently than the average temperatures increasing.”
As Colorado Springs continued burning Wednesday, atmospheric scientist William Gray, whi is well known for his denial of mainstream climate science, argued that people must adapt to a warming climate that is certain to one day begin cooling again. Gray claims that global warming is really a manufactured idea that’s part of a conspiracy between the mainstream media, the U.S. government and scientists silenced by the threat of losing government grants. All of them, he said, are trying to frighten the public and sell them on the idea of a United Nations-led global government. Gray said scientists receiving government grants are biased, and objective peer review on climate change is impossible because of inescapable government influence.
“I think he stands by himself on his arguments. The vast majority of people here (in the CSU atmospheric science department), I believe everybody except for Bill, believes that we’ll keep warming with the CO2 (carbon dioxide) loads. Gray is correct in saying research funding is easier to get when scientists are in the mainstream, but there is no conspiracy. If it’s a conspiracy, it’s not at a level I’m privy to." If the conspiracy is real, “this is a 10,000-person conspiracy that’s keeping secrets somehow.” Climate scientists are just as curious as the public about any connection between the current weather and climate change. “Any question you’re asking me, I’m asking myself."

**He that fights and runs away,
May turn and fight another day;
But he that is in battle slain,
Will never rise to fight again.**
Tacitus

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
6/28/12 -
5.2 VANUATU
5.2 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS

New Zealand's South Island Due for Earthquake - Alpine quake around the corner. A magnitude-8 earthquake along the Alpine Fault line is due to happen in as little as 30 years. Scientists have found that the southern part of the 800 kilometre-long fault - which runs along the western edge of the Southern Alps from Marlborough to Milford Sound - causes quakes of around magnitude 8. Intervals of past earthquakes along the fault suggest that a major earthquake may hit in the next few decades.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Pacific -
Tropical storm 07w (Doksuri) was located approximately 212 nm southeast of Hong Kong.

Tropical Storm Debby - Florida officials said Thursday that Tropical Storm Debby was responsible for seven deaths in the state. Debby hovered in the Gulf of Mexico for days before slowly blowing across northern Florida. "Drought Buster Debby" could be the more appropriate name for the sloppy weather that engulfed much Florida this week.That's what Tropical Storm Debby did — brought a dramatic end to a bone-dry state. Although flooding from Tropical Storm Debby has made things difficult for electric companies fighting to restore power to thousands of customers. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Debby are tracking well-away from the U.S.
Tropical Storm Debby left behind plenty of sinkholes - More sinkholes caused by Tropical Storm Debby have been discovered, including several that popped up on a golf course in Marion County earlier this week.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

India - Almost one million people have been forced to leave their homes by floods in India as torrential rains lash the north-eastern state of Assam. At least 27 people have died in flood-related incidents, five of them drowning after their boat sank in a swollen river. Twenty-one of 27 districts have been inundated by flood waters. Heavy monsoon rains have been battering Assam for the past fortnight.
Around 900,000 people had been displaced from their homes due to the flooding, and most of them had taken shelter on higher ground and tents. This is THE WORST FLOOD IN THE STATE SINCE 1998. All the major rivers, including the main Brahmaputra, were "running menacingly high with breaches reported in many places". In neighbouring Bangladesh heavy rains and multiple landslides have killed over 100 people.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

U.S. - Extreme heat roasts Central Plains, heads east next. Temperatures soared toward and above 100 degrees in many Central Plains states on Wednesday, creating dangerous conditions that are expanding eastward.
In Alabama, the National Weather Service in Mobile forecasts near-record levels or record level temperatures, including a record-breaking 101 degrees for Saturday, which trumps the 100-degree record set in 1998. In Missouri, there is an elevated fire danger from Thursday through Saturday because of the heat combined with current drought conditions. The dry weather for the past two months means that grasses and brush can burn easily. In Illinois, the Chicago suburbs were under a heat advisory Thursday, with forecasted high temperatures expected to reach a record-breaking 100-degrees-plus. In Colorado, Greeley broke a heat record Sunday topping out at 107 degrees. The previous record was 102 degrees.
The raging Colorado wildfire that forced tens of thousands to flee has left at least one person dead and has destroyed an estimated 346 homes this week, making it THE MOST DESTRUCTIVE FIRE IN THE STATE'S HISTORY. The remains of one person were found in a home where two people had been reported missing. From above, the fire's destruction is painfully clear: Rows and rows of houses were reduced to smoldering ashes even as some homes just feet away survived largely intact. On one street, all but three houses had burned to their foundations.
The aerial photos showing the scope of one of the worst fires to hit the American West in decades did little to help ease the concerns of many residents who still did not know the fate of homes. Amid the devastation in the foothills of Colorado Springs, there were hopeful signs. Flames advancing on the U.S. Air Force Academy were stopped and cooler conditions could help slow the fire. The fire was 15 percent contained Thursday night. The cost of fighting the blaze had already reached $3.2 million.
A fire in northern Colorado, which was still burning, destroyed 257 homes and until Thursday was the most destructive in state history. More than 30,000 people frantically packed up belongings Tuesday night as the flames swept through their neighborhoods. Community officials were planning to begin the process of notifying residents Thursday that their homes were destroyed. For many residents, the official notification was a formality. Residents recognized their streets on aerial pictures and carefully scrutinized the images to determine the damage. Conditions were still too dicey to allow authorities to begin trying to figure out what sparked the blaze that has raged for much of the week and already burned more than 26 square miles. The weather forecast offered some optimism for firefighters to make progress, with the temperature expected to reach into the mid-80s — about 5 degrees cooler than Wednesday — and humidity at 15 to 20 percent, about 5 points higher. Winds were forecast to be 10 to 15 mph.
Among the fires elsewhere in the West:
- A 72-square-mile wildfire in central Utah has destroyed at least 56 structures and continues to burn with just 20 percent containment. Officials expected the damage estimate to rise as they continue their assessment.
- A smaller fire near St. George, Utah, started Wednesday and had grown to 2,000 acres by midnight, forcing some residents to evacuate. The fire was burning about three miles north of Zion National Park. At least eight structures were destroyed.
- Fire crews in southeastern Montana used a break in the weather to dig containment lines around two wildfires that have burned 200 square miles and dozens of homes. The improved conditions led to residents clamoring to be let back in to check their properties and assess the damage, but authorities kept evacuation orders in place for hundreds of people.
- A wildfire in the Bridger-Teton National Forest has grown from about 12,000 acres to 23,000 acres, or nearly 36 square miles.
- In northern Colorado, about 1,900 people were allowed back into their homes Thursday, more than two weeks after the High Park Fire erupted. The blaze was 85 percent contained. The 257 homes it destroyed was a state record until that figure was eclipsed by the Colorado Springs fire.
Meanwhile, an erratic wildfire gaining steam in western Colorado prompted officials to evacuate homes of about 50 residents south of De Beque as the 10,000-acre blaze threatened to cross Interstate 70 Thursday night.
Drought threatens US food prices - A drought in the Midwest has pushed the price of a bushel of corn up about 27 percent in the past month alone and threatens a wide range of food prices. U.S. corn soared to a nine-month high on Wednesday to post the biggest three-day gain since 2010 as severe drought and triple-digit temperatures linger. The drought may eventually rival a 1988 US scorcher that cost $78 Billion.
Drought-stricken cattle ranchers in Wyoming are looking to surrounding states for grazing land, and their best bet might be North Dakota.
US East Coast a "hot spot" for sea level rise - Climate change is causing higher sea levels around the world, as land-based glaciers like those on Greenland melt and slide into the oceans. The sea level in the Northeastern US is rising more than three times faster than anywhere else.

North, South Korea face record-setting drought - Parts of both Koreas are experiencing THE MOST SEVERE DROUGHT SINCE RECORD-KEEPING BEGAN NEARLY 105 YEARS AGO. The early summer rains have yet to arrive and the UNPRECEDENTED drought may have already led to 20,000 deaths. Mountainous North Korea, where less than 20 percent of the land is arable, has relied on outside food aid to help make up for a series of chronic shortages. North Korea has dispatched soldiers to pour buckets of water on parched fields.

Europe's cities plan to combat mounting climate risk - European cities are leading their international peer group in various areas of climate change and they are planning to adapt to climate change as the risks become more severe. Cities increasingly have to plan flood defenses, ways to manage water in times of drought, ensure new buildings provide natural cooling to occupants and adapt old buildings and infrastructure to become more energy efficient.
A survey found that 17 European cities out of the 22 surveyed, or 77 percent, have completed or almost completed risk assessments to understand how climate change will affect them. Eighteen of the 22 European cities said they face "significant risks" arising from climate change and 54 percent of them see these risks as "severe" or "very severe". Due to these risks, cities are increasingly looking at developing adaptation plans. Fourteen European cities, or 64 percent of the 22 surveyed, already have an adaptation plan in place while two more are currently developing them. "European cities are demonstrating leadership and best practice in managing climate change at the local level. The report shows that other cities can benefit by implementing similar strategies, like annual measurement and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions."
Global carbon dioxide emissions, one of the main greenhouse gases blamed for global warming, HIT A RECORD HIGH LAST YEAR, according to the International Energy Agency. Eighty-six percent of the European cities surveyed have set a city-wide emissions reduction target, compared to a global average of 70 percent of cities. Based on the latest data given by four cities to CDP, London's emissions fell 3.6 percent in 2010 from 2008 and Copenhagen's dropped 5.2 percent in 2010 from 2009. Berlin's emissions rose 4.1 percent in 2008 from 2007 and Rotterdam's grew by 6 percent in 2010 from 2009. "Population growth, economic activity, weather patterns, and other factors that are outside the city government's direct control can make it difficult, if not impossible, to show steady reductions in emissions."
European cities are also becoming more aware of the economic opportunities from climate change. Thirteen of the cities surveyed, or 59 percent, think that tackling climate change will develop new business industries in their cities. Some cities - like Helsinki and Berlin - are using voluntary agreements with the private sector to strengthen their cities' climate protection goals.

In a speech Wednesday, ExxonMobil's CEO addressed three major energy issues: Climate change, oil and gas drilling pollution, and energy dependence. He said the fears about all three are overblown. He acknowledged that burning fossil fuels causes climate change, but he said that government policy should focus on adapting to climate change - that global poverty is more pressing than climate change and the poor would benefit from fossil fuel access. He believes that climate change is manageable. "We'll adapt."

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Canary Islands - Quakes migrate southwards into Las Calmas Sea. Earthquakes are still at 20 km depth and continue at high rate (more than 150 greater than M1.5 Wednesday, mostly larger than M2). Accompanied by harmonic tremor, their location is migrating southwards into the Las Calmas Sea. In other words, magma continues to move southwards and the question is whether or not it will at some point start rising to the surface.
Strong deformation detected, yellow alert for El Julan area - during the last 2 days significant and rapdid inflation was measured in the southern part of the island: At the El Pinar station, there has been horizontal eastward displacement of 2 cm and northward of 3 cm. The vertical displacement was 2 cm. This deformation is most likely caused by the accumulating magma underneath, and it is much faster than those observed last year in 2011 prior to the eruption south of La Restinga.
A "yellow alert" has been declared for the El Verodal or the western tip of the island and the southern area in the El Julan bay, where most quakes are located, and an eruption could be imminent. A record number of 234 quakes greater than M1.4 occurred on Tuesday, most of them larger than M2 and 6 larger than M3, all at about 18-20 km depth. Once tremor set in again after 16:10, quakes migrated to the El Julan area.
A submarine eruption began south of El Hierro Island in early October 2011, following an intense period of earthquakes starting in July 2011. The eruption waned and ended in March 2012, but some seismic and degassing activity continued. In May, a new series of weak to moderate earthquake swarms started and gave reason to speculate that new magmatic movements were taking place under the island. (charts and maps)

**In a state where corruption abounds,
laws must be very numerous.**
Tacitus

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
6/27/12 -
5.1 FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 TONGA
5.3 TONGA
5.1 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.6 EL SALVADOR
5.0 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION

China - A latest door-to-door check has found 394 people were injured in Sunday's earthquake that shook a mountainous area in Southwest China, up from 118.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Alaska - Cleveland volcano continues to erupt. Following up on last week's major eruption, Cleveland Volcano rumbled again Tuesday morning, sending up a small ash cloud that dissipated quickly.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Atlantic -
Post-tropical cyclone Debby was located about 180 mi [295 km] E of St. Augustine, Florida. The last public advisory has been issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system.

In the Pacific -
Tropical depression 07w (Doksuri) was located approximately 345 nm northeast of Manila, Philippines.

Hundreds of roads underwater after Florida. storm - Tropical Storm Debby took her toll on Florida, with four confirmed deaths, and close to 6000 homes without power in 17 counties. (video)

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Wildfire burns homes in Colorado Springs - The raging wildfire has destroyed dozens of houses and charred land on the edges of the Air Force Academy, while thick smoke and intense, towering flames kept officials from learning the full scope of damage to Colorado's second-largest city.
'Firestorm of epic proportions' - More than 32,000 people have fled Colorado Springs because of raging wildfires. Wildfires have also hit six other US states. Traffic and smoke choked the streets as people left Colorado Springs and a nearby US Air Force Academy. Evacuation orders were issued for much of the city as the fire doubled in size to over 24 sq miles (62 sq km). Some 800 firefighters have been deployed.
At a press briefing on Wednesday morning, officials in Colorado said fire crews had worked through the night. But the blaze was only 5% contained. Weather conditions were not favourable. Dry, hot temperatures are expected to continue across much of the US this week, with little chance of rain. The Waldo Canyon Fire, which began on Saturday, has been fanned towards Colorado Springs by winds of up to 65mph (104km/h). "It was like looking at the worst movie set you could imagine," Colorado's Governor said after surveying the fire from the air on Tuesday. "It's almost surreal. You look at that, and it's like nothing I've seen before." Heavy ash and smoke was billowing from the hillsides west of Colorado Springs and southbound traffic was temporarily closed on Interstate 25, which runs through the city. Fleeing residents covered their faces with T-shirts to breathe through the smoke. "It took us an hour to drive a mile because of the traffic. It was really tense. As we were driving, the ash was falling out of the sky. We couldn't see the street because of the smoke."
Just weeks into the annual wildfire season, there are also fires in Montana, Wyoming, New Mexico, Arizona, California and Utah. In Utah, a body was found in the ashes of a fast-moving wildfire to the south of Salt Lake City. Elsewhere in Colorado, the High Park fire in the west of the state has been burning for weeks and remains barely half contained, although fewer homes are under imminent threat.

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Canary Islands - El Hierro Volcano : Green and Yellow alert – Continuing earthquakes and 50 earthquakes so far today. 224 quakes on Tuesday. Monday 245 quakes. Sunday 22 quakes. Seismic activity remained strong all night with regular strong volcanic earthquakes between 3.0 and 3.5 in magnitude. So far today IGN has listed 50 earthquakes, which is about the same than yesterday (a little less). 3 earthquakes were recorded as M3 or greater.
The magma is still imprisoned below the South-Western ridge of the island and the coastal El Julan area. Minor magma movement at this time. The magma has been gradually moving from the El Golfo island towards a cluster below the old volcano crater and finally towards El Julan (south coast). It still has to travel a little bit towards the submarine crater to restart the eruption process. The main question now is whether it will reach and reopen the cone or withdraw before that.
More strong earthquakes can be expected today or as always with volcanoes, everything can stop suddenly – all options are open. We can expect a little more information today regarding deformation and gas emission levels. (charts, photos, log of previous eruption activity, & a free earthquake notification service)

**It is less difficult to bear misfortunes
than to remain uncorrupted by pleasure.**
Tacitus

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.6 EL SALVADOR
5.0 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
Volcanic quake cluster in Canary Islands continues.

Yesterday -
6/26/12 -
5.1 KAMCHATKA PENINSULA, RUSSIA
5.0 FIJI REGION
Big cluster of moderate volcanic quakes in the Canary Islands continues from Monday.

6/25/12 -
5.0 WESTERN TURKEY
5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
Big cluster of moderate volcanic quakes in the Canary Islands

Another mild earthquake shakes North Texas - A small quake south of Alvarado in Johnson County was the fifth quake in Texas since Saturday. No major damage has been reported in any of the quakes.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Russia - Shiveluch eruption continues. The Shiveluch Volcano, which is currently erupting in Kamchatka, threw up two pillars of ash, to a height of 6.5 km.

Tristan da Cunha - Scientists have used an advanced rock-dating technique to alert residents on the remote South Atlantic island of impending volcanos. In 1961, a volcanic eruption led to the total evacuation of Tristan da Cunha, the most remote inhabited archipelago in the world, with residents moved to temporary accommodation in the UK. The island, with a population of 261, is a British territory with only one village, which is called Edinburgh of the Seven Seas. The land mass is the tip of an undersea volcano and is seven miles across. Following their evacuation, families decided to return home in 1963. However, the volcano is still active and as recently as 2004 an undersea eruption washed volcanic rock on to the island’s shores. Now scientists have used a method known as argon-argon dating which shows eruptions are more common than previously thought. Although the scientists cannot give exact predictions, they have helped islanders be more aware of the risk of eruptions and encouraged them to review their disaster management plans. “We dated samples from as long ago as around 118,000 years to as recently as 3,000 years and discovered eruptions are much more frequent and recent than previously suspected.”

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Debby was located about 20 mi [30 km] ESE of Cedar Key, Florida. On the forecast track, the center of Debby will cross the northern Florida Peninsula this morning and possibly emerge into the Atlantic this afternoon or tonight. Debby is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 2 to 3 inches over northern Florida with isolated 5 inch amounts possible. Isolated storm total amounts of 25 inches are possible in northern Florida.

In the Pacific -
Tropical storm 07w (Doksuri) was located approximately 360 nm east of Manila, Philippines.

Tropical Storm Debby weakened to a tropical depression after it drifted ashore on Florida's Gulf Coast on Tuesday, even as it dumped more rain on flooded areas and sent thousands of people fleeing from rising rivers. After stalling in the Gulf for two days, the large and ragged storm finally began moving eastward. The center crossed the shore late on Tuesday afternoon near Steinhatchee, in the Big Bend area where the Panhandle joins the peninsula, and later took an unexpected turn to the southeast.
Most of the thunderstorms and rain were northeast of the storm center and had already dumped 2 feet of rain over parts of Florida. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said Debby could bring another 4 to 8 inches of rain - and possibly tornadoes - to north Florida and southeast Georgia in the next two days. Debby's top winds weakened to 35 miles per hour (55 km per hour) on Tuesday evening, just below the threshold to remain a tropical storm. Little change in intensity was expected, as its center slogged across the northern Florida peninsula, and it was seen emerging over the Atlantic Ocean by this evening, where it could strengthen again into a tropical storm.
Though Debby was still a threat, the hurricane center said a tropical storm warning for the Gulf Coast of Florida had been discontinued. No coastal watches or warnings remained in effect. Emergency managers in Pasco County on Florida's central Gulf Coast ordered a mandatory evacuation for 14,000 to 20,000 people living between the Anclote and Pithlachascotee Rivers. The Anclote rose from 9 feet before Debby's approach to more than 27 feet, well above major flood level. Water was ankle-deep to head-high in the evacuation area. Emergency crews had to use boats to reach stranded residents in some areas, and 106 Pasco County homes had been damaged. "The city has always been prepared for a water event, but I think Mother Nature woke us up as to how fast she can operate."
The storm was piling up coastal waters and pushing them inland, preventing the rainwater from draining out to sea. Nearly 20 inches of rain has fallen in two days on Wakulla County. Roads were under water in many parts of the surrounding area. Parts of Interstate 10 were closed between the capital, Tallahassee, and the Atlantic coast city of Jacksonville. The storm left 29,000 people without power across the central and northern parts of the state. Debby spawned tornadoes that killed a woman, badly injured a child and wrecked homes in central Florida in rural Highlands County on Sunday. Florida's coastal Pinellas County was also hit hard, with flooding in some areas and at least 20 houses with roofs that were partially or fully blown off during a tornado-like storm.
Flash flood warnings were in effect for many areas and emergency managers cautioned that inland flooding was linked to more than half the deaths from tropical cyclones in the United States over the last 30 years. Debby was the first tropical storm of 2012 to disrupt U.S. energy operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Shutdowns peaked on Monday, when more than 44 percent of daily oil production and a third of daily natural gas production were closed. Energy companies began returning staff to offshore platforms after the storm veered away from the Gulf oil patch and production was rapidly being restarted.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Bangladesh - 51 people have been killed in landslides in southeast Bangladesh after three days of rains that triggered flash floods and severed transport links.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

New Zealand narrowly missed a direct hit by what was essentially a winter cyclone, but that was no reprieve from cold, windy weather.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Wildfires worsen in Colorado - A wildfire raging near some of Colorado's most popular tourist sites grew suddenly more ferocious on Tuesday, forcing 32000 people from their homes, prompting evacuations from the US Air Force Academy and swallowing houses on the outskirts of Colorado Springs.

Monday, June 25, 2012

No update on Tuesday.

**Greater things are believed of those who are absent.**
Tacitus
LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.4 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION.

Yesterday -
6/24/12 -
5.4 JUJUY, ARGENTINA
5.6 SICHUAN-YUNNAN BORDER REG, CHINA
6.1 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

China quake kills at least four - A 5.6 earthquake hit a mountainous area of southwest China on Sunday, killing at least four people and injuring more than 100.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Debby was located about 90 mi. [145 km] SSW of Apalachicola, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Mississippi-Alabama border eastward to the Suwannee River, Florida. Debby is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over the Florida Panhandle and northern Florida with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches possible. Surrounding this area, total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are expected over central Florida and southeast Georgia. Given the recent heavy rainfall and wet soil conditions, these additional amounts will exacerbate the flash flood threat across portions of northern Florida and southern Alabama.

Tropical Storm Debby spawns fatal tornado in Florida - Tropical Storm Debby lashed Florida on Sunday, spawning two tornadoes in the central part of the state that killed a woman. Slow-moving Tropical Storm Debby's outer bands lashed Florida with rain and kicked up rough surf off Alabama on Sunday.
Stalled in the Gulf of Mexico, Debby threatened to spawn more tornadoes today as the stationary cyclone pummeled the Gulf Coast with fierce winds and heavy rain.

Philippines - The weather bureau said on Monday that there are two weather disturbances hovering inside the country that might become a cyclone. Rain was expected over several parts of the country Sunday even as state weather forecasters continued to track the potential cyclone.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

China - Torrential rains have killed at least 16 people and affected 1.5 million people in southern and northern parts of China.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

U.S. - A fast-growing wildfire in Colorado forced 11,000 people from their homes at least briefly on Sunday. 30 structures have been destroyed in Utah.

U.S. - So far, 2012 another extreme year in Vermont - Last year seemed like the most extreme year, weatherwise, in Vermont. The state endured a near record snowy winter. They survived repeated, devastating floods, culminating in the deluge of Tropical Storm Irene, easily Vermont’s worst natural disaster since the Great Flood of 1927. Temperatures in 2011 gyrated wildly, mostly up, and ended up among the top ten list of warmest years of record. This year, Vermont has just come off another record heat wave, and the year is so far almost as wild as 2011. And we’ve still got half of the year to get through yet.
– So far in 2012, Burlington has tied or set new daily high temperature records on 11 days. They also tied a record low for the date on April 30. Most years, they only manage to get maybe five new or tied records, at most.
— March was by far the warmest on record. The entire spring also beat the old record for warmest spring by a full degree. Setting a new seasonal record by a full degree is pretty much unprecedented.
– This past winter was the third least snowiest in Burlington with a meager total of 37.7. This after the third snowiest winter on record in 2011.
– Unless an expected cool wave next week cancels out the midmonth heat, June will be the 15th consecutive warmer than normal month in Burlington. That would be the most consecutive months of above normal temperatures.
– Addison, Lamoille and Orleans counties have been declared federal disaster areas because of the May 29 severe storms, hail, flash flooding and a tornado. This is the sixth year in a row a storm has been declared bad enough to declare part of Vermont a disaster area so there’s another indication the weather has gotten more extreme. All but two years since 1995 has seen a disaster declartion somewhere in Vermont.

Sunday, June 24, 2012

Yellowstone geysers are active again after dormant period - Yellowstone geyser enthusiasts are reporting that a handful of Yellowstone National Park geysers appear to be active again after periods of dormancy, including one geyser that last erupted almost two decades ago. Morning Geyser, quiet for 18 years, is now active, and there is news that an electronic monitor on Echinus in Norris Geyser Basin picked up an eruption. North Goggles Geyser has also started erupting more regularly than the lone annual display it has typically shown over the past few years. The last time it was this active was 2004. Joining the list of newly reactivated thermal features are Fan and Mortar geysers, which may be beginning an active cycle.
Morning Geyser last erupted in 1994. The first reported eruption this year occurred on Wed., June 20. A second eruption was reported the following day, with geyser gazers reporting online that Morning Geyser spewed for up to 30 minutes, reaching a height of 200 feet. For Fountain Geyser, there have been longer intervals between eruptions than seen in recent years. It may be that there is a connection between Morning Geyser and Fountain Geyser, and a change in Fountain Geyser could result in changes in other thermal features in the area. How long will Morning Geyser continue erupting? That’s hard to say, but based on past active cycles, it could be days or weeks. Then again, these two eruptions might be all that’s seen for a while.
Every couple of years, Fan and Mortar geysers take a break and go silent. Prior to this eruption, they were last known to erupt in October 2011. Sometimes they take longer breaks than this, but no one appeared disappointed by the short nap and their recent reawakening. When active, they erupt about every 3-5 days, sometimes appearing to “prefer” nighttime eruptions. It may take a bit longer for Fan and Mortar to fully reactivate.
Echinus Geyser in Norris Geyser Basin is a third geyser that is reactivating. A temperature probe indicated that Echinus erupted at 3:25 a.m. on Mon., June 28; “no one saw it, but it is the first known eruption since January 2011.”

**It is human nature to hate the man whom you have hurt.**
Tacitus

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.0 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN

Yesterday -
6/23/12 -
5.3 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.0 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
6.1 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.0 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.

6/22/12 -
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS

5.1 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.6 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS

Indonesia - Aceh quake sends patients into panic. Patients at Pirngadi General Hospital in Medan, North Sumatra, panicked after a 6.1-magnitude earthquake hit Subulussalam, Aceh, at 11:34 a.m, but no damages or injuries have been reported.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Debbie was located about 220 mi. [355 km] SSE of the mouth of the Mississippi River in the Gulf of Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Louisiana from the mouth of the Pearl River westward to Morgan City, not including the city of New Orleans or Lake Pontchartrain. Debby will be moving over the northern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Debby is expected to produce rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along the Gulf Coast from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of west-central and southern Florida tonight and Sunday.

Tropical Storm Debby formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, interfering with oil and gas production and putting officials on alert for flooding and strong winds from Texas to Florida.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Afghanistan - Flash floods in Afghanistan triggered by days of torrential rain have killed more than 30 people, with dozens reported missing. Waters swept through villages and parts of the city of Cheghcheran in central Ghor province overnight, engulfing dozens of homes. The floodwaters also destroyed hundreds of hectares of farmland and displaced hundreds of people in the impoverished province.
In the northeast of the country, two days of torrential rains and hail triggered flooding in the remote province of Badakhshan, killing at least eight and destroying up to 100 houses. "This kind of rain and hail is NOT COMMON AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, so people were caught off guard." Hundreds of villagers in high-risk areas have been evacuated as a precaution against further flooding.
Afghanistan's HARSHEST WINTER IN 15 YEARS saw UNUSUALLY heavy snowfalls and experts predicted that rivers swollen by melting snow were likely to flood in the mountainous north in spring. In May, flash floods in Sari Pul province, which borders Ghor to the north, killed 50 people, mostly women and children.


EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Firefighters in Utah and Colorado struggled on Saturday to contain raging wildfires stoked by high winds that have burned some 200 dwellings in Colorado.

Friday, June 22, 2012

**Many who seem to be struggling with adversity
are happy;
many, amid great affluence,
are utterly miserable.
Tacitus

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.7 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION
5.1 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.3 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.2 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS

Yesterday -
6/21/12 -
5.1 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.3 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 GUAM REGION

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Colombia Closes Second Airport Due to Volcanic Ash Clouds - Colombia's government has closed a second airport after the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center in Washington issued an ash cloud advisory for the Nevado Del Ruiz Volcano, which Colombian authorities have been saying for weeks is probably getting ready to erupt. An official said the Matecana Airport in the city of Pereira was closed Wednesday "as a precaution" due to continued ash clouds in Colombia's central, coffee-growing region.

Pilots Warned about Alaska Volcano's Sudden Eruption - It seems there can be some trouble for aircrafts hovering over southwest of Anchorage, as there are reports that indicate a remote Aleutian volcano became active on Tuesday. For the past one year, it has been silent but it has been showing signs of strong eruptions. Recent reports from the Alaska Volcano Observatory have alerted one and all about what can happen to aircraft if in case they travel in such condition. Nonetheless, it is believed that there is nothing much to worry about as intensity of such ash signals is quite weak. "It was just one explosion, which was very typical of the thing Cleveland has been doing in the last year." It is believed that Cleveland is one of the most active Alaska's volcanoes but still there is no on-site seismic monitoring equipment. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Chris was located about 540 mi [870 km] ESE of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Chris, which lasted six hours as a Category 1 hurricane before weakening to a tropical storm, is expected to dissipate in two days or less.

Budding Gulf of Mexico Storm Forming as Chris Weakens in the Atlantic - A swath of rain and thunderstorms across the Caribbean from Mexico to southern Florida has a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm in 48 hours. It would be named Debby.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Australia - Three homes have been flooded, 20 have been evacuated and one person has been treated for shock as residents in towns southeast of Melbourne in Victoria wait for floodwaters to recede.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

A novel technique to curb global warming could also trigger earthquakes - A report finds that injecting carbon dioxide into underground rock formations, while a potential means of fighting global warming, could increase stresses and trigger quakes.

Canada - Extreme heat blankets Ontario, Quebec. Demands for electricity are hitting seasonal highs as temperatures continue to soar across Ontario and Quebec, yet warnings to conserve energy aren't being heeded.

HEALTH THREATS -

A study reveals changes enabling airborne spread of H5N1 - A study showing that it takes as few as five mutations to turn the H5N1 avian influenza virus into an airborne spreader in mammals -- which launched a historic debate on scientific accountability and transparency -- was released Thursday in Science, spilling the full experimental details that many experts had sought to suppress out of concern that publishing them could lead to the unleashing of a dangerous virus.

Thursday, June 21, 2012

**Love of fame is the last thing
even learned men can bear to be parted from.**
Tacitus

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.0 GUAM REGION

Yesterday -
6/20/12 -
5.4 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.6 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.5 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS

Australia - Victoria's 5.3 quake was the BIGGEST QUAKE FOR A CENTURY. Victoria's biggest earthquake in decades has cracked walls, thrown stock from supermarket shelves and sent tremors statewide, and its aftershocks could continue to rumble the state for the next fortnight, seismologists say. South-east Victoria has been rocked by more than 60 aftershocks after the quake hit near Moe in Gippsland. Millions felt the quake it when it struck just before 9pm (AEST), lasting up to 20 seconds in some areas.
The aftershocks from Tuesday night's 5.4 magnitude earthquake could surpass the original, according to seismologists and the history books. Tuesday's earthquake had an epicentre 15 kilometres south-west of Moe. It struck almost 43 years to the day since a 5.3 magnitude earthquake hit the area on June 20, 1969. Two days later, a magnitude 5 earthquake rattled the small town of Boolarra.
"We could still have an aftershock of equal or larger magnitude. It may be that the rock from where the stress was released hasn't completely broken off yet." The aftershocks triggered by the earthquake - which were occurring at a rate of several an hour yesterday - are likely to continue for weeks or even months. But the majority measured one to two in magnitude.
The devastating Christchurch, New Zealand, 6.3 magnitude earthquake last February was related to a 7.1 magnitude quake which struck the South Island city in September 2010. "Certainly a large earthquake can trigger other earthquakes in the region." South-east Victoria is one of the most seismologically active parts of the country. While Australia sits on the static Australian plate, pressure builds from the Pacific Plate moving westwards at about 50 millimetres a year. The pressure builds until a weak spot gives way. "It's like a china plate with a crack in it … If you go and push it against the wall, it will break at that weak spot, which is what's happening here." The depth of Tuesday night's earthquake minimised damage. With an epicentre 15 kilometres beneath the surface, the quake south of Moe was never going to be as destructive as the 1989 Newcastle quake which was close to the surface and had an epicentre in the heart of town. (video & map)

Canada - British Columbia earthquake 'is a matter of when, not if'. The hospital that serves downtown Vancouver will be a crucial resource when the big earthquake comes - if it doesn’t fall down. “In terms of geological time, we’re overdue. It is a matter of when, not if. It’s like a time bomb waiting to go off but we don’t know what it’s set for. This is the place that people are going to go to in an earthquake. Our emergency plan has to have steps to it. The first step is you have to survive.”
A model was run predicting what would happen to St. Paul’s Hospital in the event of a magnitude-7 quake with an epicentre 15 kilometres away. “What it shows is that the building will wiggle like mad and practically tear itself apart. We just pray we get the new building up before it happens.” Last week, the Premier announced upgrades to St. Paul’s, including a new building. But details and a business plan won’t be ready for release until 2014, and no upgrade funding was attached to the announcement.
“No one can predict when, or if, an earthquake will occur and what exact impact an earthquake will have on buildings and services. The majority of in-patient beds at St Paul’s are not located in buildings in need of seismic upgrading.” It will take five years to finish upgrades once final approval is received. “We have to do something,” Maples says, “and the question is, how long can we wait to do it?” The original building of St. Paul’s, in the hospital’s central section, was completed in 1913 with little concern for seismic activity. That building houses the emergency department and “has virtually no lateral resistance."
The north and south wings, built in the ’30s, would meet 10 to 20 per cent of today’s standards of seismic resistance. Made of early reinforced concrete, the structures are “very brittle." Interior walls are covered in clay tiles. “They will shatter in an earthquake and be very dangerous." Throughout St. Paul’s, there is a “significant possibility of at least partial collapse."
The worst-case scenario of a heavily damaged St. Paul’s cut off from the outside by collapsing bridges into downtown Vancouver could occur, noting that California’s 1989 magnitude-7 Loma Prieta quake caused a viaduct, double-decker highway and a bridge to collapse. Should damage force closure of St. Paul’s emergency department, patients would be moved into prearranged locations, including schools. Hospital staff would bring all movable equipment to the patients. “That’s all we would be able to do." The claim that the 2012 budget contains $500 million that would fund the upgrade gives people “false hopes. There is no $500 million in this year’s budget." The Liberals kept putting off seismic upgrades to schools, and eventually cut the number of schools to upgrade. “The only thing this government is committed to is trying to increase its popularity in the polls. We are 10 months away from an election.”

MYSTERY BOOMS -

New York - June 2012 - People Report Mysterious Booms And Shaking. Route 12 in the town of Alexandria looks normal, but residents say lately that hasn't been the case. "Boom, crack - and we wonder, what is this?" "It's like a mini-shotgun blast or something. It's very quick, but instead of being in the air around you, it's coming from the ground underneath you." Residents have heard the blasts and felt the shaking for the last two weeks. "Did you hear that one? Did you hear the one last night at 2:30? Did you feel the one at four o'clock?"
But here's the thing, seismology reports do not show any activity in the area over the last week and officials with Fort Drum say they aren't responsible for the shaking either. "Everybody has the same concern, they just want to know what exactly is happening." While they haven't been able to find a concrete answer, some residents do have a theory - that salt used by the Department of Transportation over the years has seeped into the ground, causing rocks underneath to shift and move. "Could that salt now be crusting, and as it crusts it swells and could possibly be lifting enormous rocks." Calls to the DOT haven't been returned. That means the search for the source of the shaking will continue.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Chris was located about 635 mi [1025 km] SE of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Chris is heading toward cooler waters, and has probably has reached its peak intensity. Chris is forecast to become Post-tropical today or tonight. It poses no hazard to land.

In the Pacific -
Tropical depression 06w (Talim) was located approximately 100 nm northeast of Taipei, Taiwan.

Tropical Disturbance Heading Toward Gulf of Mexico - As of late Wednesday evening the National Hurricane Center was indicating that there is a 30% chance of tropical storm development within the next 48 hours.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

U.S. - Minnesota - Seals swim to freedom after zoo floods. Heavy rains flooded a Minnesota zoo overnight, drowning several barnyard animals but allowing two seals to make a swimming escape and a polar bear to leave her exhibit area. A Duluth resident spotted one of the seals on a city street about 3.30am local time and called authorities. "That was our first clue that the zoo was flooding actually," said the director of guest services at the Lake Superior Zoo.
When zoo employees arrived at the scene of the seal spotting, they found both animals, named Vivienne and Feisty, and transported them safely back to the facility. As for Berlin, the polar bear managed to escape her exhibit area but "rumours that the polar bear was out and wandering Duluth" were not true. She did not get very far before the zookeepers found her and she was able to be tranquilised. She is also safe and secure and in her holding area." All the carnivores from the zoo have been accounted for. Those who died included the zoo's donkey, goats and sheep.
Duluth, NE Minnesota reeling from floods - Major flooding in northeastern Minnesota has closed roads, Duluth City Hall and the University of Minnesota campus, and has authorities recommending emergency travel only. Major flooding struck in and around Duluth on Wednesday after up to 10 inches of rain fell overnight across northeastern Minnesota, leaving neighborhoods isolated, zoo animals drowned and state parks closed. Steady, torrential rain kept up into Wednesday morning, June 20, closing Interstate 35 and a tunnel into downtown Duluth. Police said sinkholes and washouts made travel dangerous.
Residents of the far west Duluth neighborhood of Fond du Lac, near the rising St. Louis River, were asked to leave their homes. Seventy people arrived at shelters opened by the Red Cross. the governor declared a state of emergency and directed the Minnesota National Guard to help the region cope with the disaster. There were no immediate reports of deaths or serious injuries, though an 8-year-old boy was swept about six blocks under the streets through a culvert near Duluth. The boy suffered scrapes and bruises but was fine - a "miracle out of this whole disaster." Half of the Fond du Lac neighborhood was under evacuation and the town of Thomson was partially evacuated. The deluge closed I-35 downtown - a section that runs through a tunnel flooded - and cut off low-lying neighborhoods on the west end of town.
More photos

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

[blogspot technical problems continue - webpage layout may be a bit out of whack]
Today, the sun crosses the celestial equator heading south. The moment of crossing or "solstice" occurs at 7:09 pm EDT and marks the beginning of northern summer. This is the longest day and shortest night of the year in the Northern Hemisphere. Meanwhile In the Southern Hemisphere, winter begins. Happy solstice!

**A moving body whose motion was not retarded
by any resisting force
would continue to move to all eternity.**
Hermann von Helmholtz


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.6 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.5 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA

Yesterday -
6/19/12 -
5.0 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
5.6 NEAR ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
6.0 NEAR ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.1 GUJARAT, INDIA
5.0 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
5.2 OFF COAST OF OREGON
5.2 NEAR S.E. COAST OF AUSTRALIA
5.1 FIJI REGION

6/18/12 -
5.1 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.3 MENDOZA, ARGENTINA
5.0 AZORES ISLANDS REGION


VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Long-grumbling Alaska volcano has explosive ash burst - Cleveland Volcano eruption sent ash up to 35000 feet. The remote Aleutian volcano that has been restless for the past year rumbled to life on Tuesday. The alert level for the volcano has been raised. The Alaska Volcano Observatory said other eruptions are possible.


TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Chris was located about 600 mi [970 km] S of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Chris is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday.


In the Pacific -
Tropical storm 06w (Talim) was located approximately 85 nm west-southwest of Taipei, Taiwan.


Thousands evacuated as storm hits Taiwan - Officials evacuate thousands, cancel hundreds of flights and close schools today as tropical storm Talim pounded Taiwan.


EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Penguin popluations plummet, climate change blamed - Some penguin populations are feeling the heat from global warming, with one species culled by more than a third. Thirty-six percent of chinstrap penguins - named after the black strip of feathers that runs across their white chins - have been wiped out.



Monday, June 18, 2012

Blogspot has some technical problems - so the update is a little wacky.

 No update on Tuesday.

**A movement is only composed of people moving.
To feel its warmth and motion around us is the end
as well as the means.**
Gloria Steinem

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.3 MENDOZA, ARGENTINA
5.0 AZORES ISLANDS REGION

Yesterday -
6/17/12 -
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
6.4 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.4 TONGA
5.0 TAIWAN
5.6 SOLOMON ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Mexico's Popocatepetl volcano is showing more signs of activity, which can be seen from a permanent camera.

Colombian volcano Nevado del Ruiz spews ash and gas - People living on its slopes said they had heard "strong, strange noises" coming from the summit of the mountain on Friday and Saturday. Officials say an orange alert first declared three weeks ago is still in place for areas near the summit. More than 25,000 people died in a mudslide caused by Nevado del Ruiz in its last eruption in 1985.
Officials have distributed 30,000 face masks to residents living in areas affected by ash from the volcano. The airport in the nearby town of Manizales, in central Colombia, has been closed since the end of May, and will remain so until the volcano ceases to emit ash. The Volcanic Observatory in Manizales said the plume of ash and gas had risen to a height of 2,000m (6,500ft) on Sunday.
Scientists at the observatory warned there was a risk of an eruption "within days or weeks". Some 150 families have been evacuated from the banks of the rivers which flow down the volcano, as they were deemed to be most at risk. In the 1985 eruption, the small town of Armero on the banks of the Lagunilla river was almost completely erased as summit glaciers and snow were melted by hot lava. The water raced down the slopes carrying rocks, mud and vegetation in a destructive mudslide travelling at a speed of 60km/h (37mph). Only a quarter of Armero's population survived.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES -

Japan's government on Saturday approved bringing the country's first nuclear reactors back online since last year's earthquake and tsunami.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Pacific -
- Typhoon 05w (Guchol) was located approximately 265 nm south of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan.
- Tropical depression 06w (Talim) was located approximately 240 nm south-southwest of Hong Kong.

  Super Typhoon Guchol in the West Pacific is expected to hit Japan.

3rd storm to enter Philippines Wednesday - Typhoon 'Butchoy' (Guchol) expected to exit Tuesday morning. The third tropical storm may enter the Philippines by Wednesday afternoon, a government weather forecaster says. The tropical storm with the international name Talim was estimated at 820 km west of extreme northern Luzon. It has maximum sustained winds of 75 kph.
Talim, the fifth tropical storm of this year, is expected to hit at least two provinces on China's southern and eastern coasts Tuesday.

SPACE WEATHER -

ELECTRIC-BLUE NOCTILUCENT CLOUDS - Data from NASA's AIM spacecraft show that noctilucent clouds are like a great "geophysical light bulb." They turn on every year in late spring, reaching almost full intensity over a period of no more than 5 to 10 days. News flash: The bulb is glowing. These electric-blue clouds are hanging 85 km above Earth's surface, at the edge of space itself. Their origin is still largely a mystery; various theories associate them with space dust, rocket exhaust, global warming - or some mixture of the three. One thing is sure. They're baaack ... for the summer of 2012.
NLCs favor high latitudes, although they have been sighted as far south as Colorado and Virginia. Look west 30 to 60 minutes after sunset when the Sun has dipped 6o to 16o below the horizon. If you see luminous blue-white tendrils spreading across the sky, you may have spotted a noctilucent cloud.

A geomagnetic storm is in progress in the wake of a double CME impact on June 16th. The hit, which strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field, lit up both poles with bright auroras. In the Americas, Northern Lights descended as far south as Oregon, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Washington, and the Dakotas. Solar wind conditions in the wake of the CME favor continued disturbances. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of more high-latitude geomagnetic storms during the next 24 hours.

Sunday, June 17, 2012

On Monday morning, Greece could be waking up to a nightmare scenario, which runs as follows: The cash machines start drying up. Supermarket shelves are cleared by families fearful that food supplies will run out. There are queues round the block for the last dribbles from the petrol pumps, and deliveries come to a halt. Within a day or two, protests have turned to looting and random acts of violence against strangers. Overwhelmed, the police retreat to their bases. The most vulnerable citizens lock the doors and pray.
And gradually, the country that gave the world ‘democracy’ descends into another word it also created — ‘anarchy’. Understandably, no one on the tense, graffiti-splattered streets of Athens wanted to discuss this possibility ahead of the Greek election in case it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. For many, though, it is hard to envisage how much further they can fall.
We are unlikely to see this nation implode in the immediate aftermath of the vote. The most probable outcome is more procrastination and horse-trading — just like the dithering that followed the last, entirely inconclusive election in May, since when Greece has been without a government. But deep down, everyone knows that the status quo cannot go on much longer.
Greece is on borrowed time. Ultimately, Greeks face a choice between swallowing the austerity package imposed by the EU’s German paymasters — punitive taxation and a purge of the public sector — or they can be relegated from the euro and return to a much-devalued drachma. The second option would see the country’s existing wealth cut by half. And while it might enable Greece to rebuild itself over time, the first months of that journey would be perilous as a bankrupt nation found itself unable to buy essentials such as medicines, not to mention food.
It is a nightmare scenario that some have called ‘Drachmageddon’. And it is one Britain will feel acutely as billions are wiped off the value of their shareholdings and pension funds as the markets tumble amid fears that Spain and Italy might be next. One thing is certain. Absolutely no one in Athens expects any improvement in the dismal situation that constitutes ordinary life in Greece today.
There is a palpable sense of poverty almost everywhere. Some areas have become feral no-go zones after dark. And yet, most surprising is the sense of calm, almost defiant resignation. There has been no stampede for petrol or food. True, people have been withdrawing cash at the rate of up to 800 million euros a day, and an estimated 70 billion euros is thought to have been squirrelled away in foreign bank accounts in recent months. But what is perhaps more surprising is that 170 billion euros are still sitting in ordinary Greek bank accounts. There have been no queues outside Athenian banks this week. In short, there is no panic. 'Perhaps this is what it feels like just before the volcano is about to explode. This election offers no clear solution, no clear choice between “in” or “out” of the euro. So many people have taken the view that what will happen, will happen.’

**Happy Father's Day!**

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
6.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS

Yesterday -
6/16/12 -
6.0 LUZON, PHILIPPINES
5.0 MAUG ISLANDS REG, N. MARIANA IS.

6/15/12 -
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.4 BISMARCK SEA
5.6 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

Italy Quakes Threaten Summer Tourism as Recession Bites - Italy's strongest earthquakes in three years and more than 1800 aftershocks are deterring tourists in the peak summer season.

Azerbaijan earthquake risk is significant - Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, is at risk of a devastating earthquake similar to one that leveled the country's previous capital in 1859, researchers say.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Red alert declared over Kamchatka's Shiveluch eruption - The Shiveluch volcano on Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia's Far East has erupted ash rising to an altitude of 8 km above sea level.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Pacific -
-Post-tropical cyclone Carlotta was located about 90 mi [145 km] ENE of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Carlotta is now a remnant low over the high terrain of Mexico. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides possible for several more days.
-Super Typhoon 05w (Guchol) was located approximately 550 nm south of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan.

Super Typhoon Sets Aim at Japan - Guchol, a tropical cyclone in the western Pacific, rapidly strengthened Saturday afternoon, local time. Winds are now in excess of 150 mph, making Guchol a super typhoon.

Tropical Storm Carlotta weakens over Mexico's Pacific coast, two children dead - Category 2 Hurricane Carlotta weakened into a tropical depression on Saturday after battering Mexico's Pacific coast. Hurricane Carlotta slammed into Mexico's resort-studded Pacific coast late Friday, toppling trees and lashing hotels.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Chilean project aims to improve plant resistance to extreme weather - Chilean researchers are developing an antioxidant product to improve fruit resistance to cold spells.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

The wildfire burning just west of Fort Collins, Colorado, has destroyed 181 homes.

Authorities in Greece have been battling wildfires in several locations near the capital Athens. More than 150 firefighters were called to tackle the fires which broke out on Saturday and spread in high winds. Three of them were reported injured. The biggest fire was reported to be near the town of Keratea, 50 km (30 miles) south of Athens.
It is believed the fire was started by sparks from welding work at a construction site. Four people have been arrested for accidentally causing the fire. High temperatures and strong winds have been hampering the effort to extinguish the fires "We are trying to coordinate and people are frustrated and very anxious as you can realise."
Another fire in the Athens suburb of Pallini damaged a factory, with at least two other fires reported near the capital. Greece has asked Italy, France and Croatia for help in the form of more firefighting planes. In 2007 Greece declared a state of emergency when more than 60 people died in a wave of forest fires.

SPACE WEATHER -

STRONG COMPRESSION OF EARTH'S MAGNETOSPHERE - As expected, a double CME hit Earth's magnetic field on June 16th around 0900 UT. Intitially, the impact appeared to be weak, but now the effects are growing. Analysts say the impact strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field, directly exposing some geosynchronous satellites to solar wind plasma. Geomagnetic storms and auroras are possible in the hours ahead.

CHANCE OF FLARES - Sunspot AR1504 has developed a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong solar flares and the huge sunspot is directly facing Earth. NOAA forecasters estimate a 65% chance of M-flares and a 5% chance of X-flares from AR1504 during the next 24 hours. So far the sunspot region fired off two M-class flares, and two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on June 13th and 14th. A huge prominence has also popped up on the sun's western limb.

Friday, June 15, 2012

Election apocalypse - Greeks hoard canned food - Nervous Greeks are withdrawing up to 800 million euros ($1.01 billion) a day and stocking up on canned food as they fear the country will be forced to leave the eurozone after this Sunday's election. Retailers say consumers are stocking up on non-perishable foods like pasta and canned goods.
Latest polls showed the conservative New Democracy party, which supports a €130 billion international bailout, is running neck-and-neck with the leftist SYRIZA party. SYRIZA is pledging to tear up the bailout deal, saying that the austerity conditions attached to the money are so catastrophic for the country they must be rejected. If the country renounces its bailout terms, Greece's international partners could stop providing the rescue loans, which would lead it to default and force it out of the eurozone.
Reports overnight said that Greece only had about €2 billion euros ($2.52 billion) left in its coffers, which would only last until July 20. Greece’s finance minister refused to comment but the country’s labour minister said that Greece should have enough cash to pay pensions at least for July. If Greece walked away from the euro, the drachma’s value against other currencies would plunge along with the earnings of Greek workers. Cost of living would spike on the back of rises in interest rates and import prices.

**All motion is cyclic.
It circulates to the limits of its possibilities
and then returns to its starting point.**
Robert Collier

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.9 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

Yesterday -
6/14/12 -
5.5 NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
5.5 MOLUCCA SEA
5.2 TAIWAN
5.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.3 TURKEY-SYRIA-IRAQ BORDER REGION

Magnitude 5.5 quake shakes southeast Turkey - A moderate earthquake shook southeastern Turkey on Thursday, damaging a mosque's minarets and injuring a handful of people who jumped off buildings in panic.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Hundreds briefly evacuate as volcano erupts in northeast Indonesia - Hundreds of residents in northeastern Indonesia fled their homes on Wednesday after a brief eruption at Mount Gamkonora, spewing towering columns of ash and smoke and prompting officials to raise the volcano's alert level to the second-highest state.
The volcano, which is located on the west coast of Halmahera island in the Maluku Islands and is part of North Maluku province, began to erupt on Wednesday afternoon and sent thick ash clouds up to 3,000 meters (9,842 feet) high, although no lava flows were seen. Hundreds of residents living on the volcano's slope evacuated the area following the eruption, but they returned hours later after officials determined their communities are not currently at risk. New evacuations could be ordered if activity at the volcano continues to increase.
Following Wednesday's eruption, the country's Volcanology and Geology Disaster Mitigation Center decided to raise the volcano's alert status to Siaga (level 3), the second-highest level. Activity at Mount Gamkonora has been increasing for months, with more frequent volcanic earthquakes and an increase of magma activity near the surface. Authorities are still uncertain whether the current eruption will lead to a major event, but past eruptions at the volcano have nearly all been explosive.
Mount Gamkonora last erupted in July 2007, forcing the evacuation of nearly 10,000 people but causing no known casualties. The most notable eruption at the volcano took place in May 1673, when a massive eruption caused significant damage in the area and resulting tsunami waves which flooded nearby villages. An unknown number of people were killed.
One of Indonesia's most active volcanoes is Mount Merapi, which is located on the island of Java near Jogjakarta, the country's second-most visited area after Bali. Between October and November 2010, a series of eruptions took place at the volcano, killing at least 353 people and displacing more than 300,000 others.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Pacific -
-Tropical Storm Carlotta was located about about 460 mi. [745 km} SE of Acapulco, Mexico. Carlotta is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3-5 inches [75-125 mm] with isolated maximum amounts of 10-12 inches [50-300 mm] .over the Mexican states of Guerrero...Oaxaca...Chiapas...as well as over the southern portion of Guatemala. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
-Typhoon 05w (Guchol) was located 667 nm ESE of Manila, Philippines.

STRANGE ANIMAL BEHAVIOR -

Grasshoppers who are scared leave their mark in the Earth - Grasshoppers who die frightened leave their mark in the Earth in a way that more mellow ones do not, researchers said. They placed cages in areas of natural vegetation and allowed some grasshoppers to be alone while others were placed in cages with a spider. They glued the mouths of the spiders shut in order to make sure that the grasshoppers experienced pure fear but were not actually killed by the predators.
When the grasshoppers died, they took their bodies back to the lab and deposited them in soil. They found that the body composition of the frightened grasshoppers was changed - their carbon to nitrogen ratio was about four percent higher than their calmer peers. But that rather tiny difference caused plant matter to decay much more slowly than it did in comparison tests using grasshoppers who died more peacefully. The findings shed light not only on how predators and prey influence the makeup of the soil, but how stresses invoked by drought and extreme heat might have lasting effects on crops and growth cycles.

SPACE WEATHER -

Large asteroid to race by Earth - A newly discovered asteroid the size of a city block will zoom past Earth but poses no risk of a collision, astronomers said on Thursday. The "UNUSUALLY LARGE" asteroid will not be visible to the naked eye, but asteroid enthusiasts could watch it pass by during a live online broadcast from an observatory in the Canary Islands at Slooh.com beginning at 8 pm (0000 GMT on Friday).
NASA has already catalogued 9,000 such Near-Earth Objects, but astronomers are always on the lookout for new ones. "Once in awhile one will come out of nowhere like this one, which is actually pretty big. We were like, 'Wow, we should track this one.'"The asteroid, named 2012 LZ1, is thought to be about 500 meters (1,650 feet) wide, and is expected to pass within 14 times the Moon's distance from the Earth.
The massive object was discovered just days ago. The asteroid qualifies as a Near-Earth Object because of its size and proximity -- more than 500 feet (152 meters) wide and within a distance of 4.65 million miles (7.5 million kilometers) from Earth.

Thursday, June 14, 2012

Extreme natural events may be more common and predictable than previously thought an Australian-led team of scientists has found. The group used lasers to examine how frequently events such as hurricanes, tsunamis and bushfires occurred. The scientists say that in nature, extreme does not necessarily mean rare.
"A crucial factor in the appearance of extreme events, whether in nature, or a laser in the laboratory, is the existence of energy, or a background excitation in the system." There is a greater potential of extreme events with the abundance of energy around us. "Simply speaking, explosions and fires can't happen without fuel or another source of energy. Hurricanes can't appear in the atmosphere and rogue waves can't appear in completely still seas. Instead they accumulate energy from smaller waves."
The team found that as the Earth and its cities are densely filled with energy supplies, this large source of energy is a potential field for extreme events. "Without this background excitation, the events will stay within expected limits. But a continuous supply of energy can push the event off the expected limits and into extremes." The team modelled extreme events by using laser systems. "What we've found is that recorded intensity fluctuations resulting from the ceaseless relative motion inside the laser demonstrates that extreme events happen much more often than people expect."

**A human act once set in motion
flows on forever to the great account.
Our deathlessness is in what we do,
not in what we are.**
George Meredith

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.0 TURKEY-SYRIA-IRAQ BORDER REGION

Yesterday -
6/13/12 -
SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Quake-hit Afghan village could become mass grave - The Afghan village where more than 70 people are believed to have been buried in an earthquake-triggered landslide could be declared a mass grave, an official said Wednesday. Two shallow tremors less than half an hour apart on Monday unleashed a deluge of rock and earth that smashed into the remote village of Mullah Jan, in the mountainous Hindu Kush region.
Villagers say 71 people, all women and children, were trapped in the landslide, and a disaster management official has described the chances of anyone surviving as "slim or non-existent". Mechanical diggers were at the site trying to clear rubble to find bodies or survivors, but the scale of the task made it difficult. "Part of a mountain has collapsed on a part of Mullah Jan village and there is over 60 metres of dirt to remove."
Pictures from the scene showed earthmovers digging through mounds of brown dirt and rock with no visible signs of buried buildings. Only three bodies have been recovered from Mullah Jan, while a fourth was found in a neighbouring district. The chief of the village suggested declaring the site a mass grave and leaving the other victims' bodies to rest. The first quake on Monday, with a magnitude of 5.4, struck at 9:32 am (0502 GMT) at a depth of 15 kilometres (10 miles) with the epicentre around 160 kilometres southwest of the town of Faizabad. A more powerful tremor, measured at 5.7 magnitude, hit around 25 minutes later in almost exactly the same place.
Northern Afghanistan and Pakistan are frequently hit by earthquakes, especially around the Hindu Kush range, which lies near the collision of the Eurasian and Indian tectonic plates. A 7.6-magnitude earthquake in Pakistan in October 2005 killed 74,000 people and displaced 3.5 million.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

In the Pacific -
- Tropical Depression Three-E was located in the eastern Pacific. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph. [55 km/h] with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm today. Additional strengthening is likely Thursday night and Friday and the system could become a hurricane as it nears the Pacific coast of Mexico.
- Tropical storm 05w (Guchol) was located approximately 215 nm north of Palau in the western Pacific Ocean.

A named tropical storm 'Guchol' has taken shape to the east of the Philippines, and is on course to become a typhoon (tropical cyclone) by the weekend.
Latest forecasts call for Guchol to curve northeast toward Okinawa early next week, with winds up to 70 mph.
8 dead, 63 missing as 'Butchoy' approaches Philippines - Eight people have been reported killed and 63 more are missing as Tropical Storm Guchol moved nearer to the Philippines on Thursday. As of 5 a.m., "Guchol" was estimated 1,110 kilometers east of Northern Mindanao with maximum sustained winds of 85 kilometers per hour and gusts of up to 100 kph. The storm was moving west northwest at 20 kph. Tropical storm Butsoy (international name: Guchol) entered the Philippine area of responsibility before noon Thursday, earlier than its expected forecast.
The weather bureau said that the storm may pass through Visayas and and go up to Luzon. Coupled with the southwest monsoon, the weather system will bring rains over Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. PAGASA has advised disaster response units around the country of possible landslides and flashfloods. Thursday morning that a total of eight people have been confirmed killed in flashfloods and a sea mishap in El Nido, Palawan; Marilog, Davao City; Sarangani and General Santos City. Flashfloods hit at least five provinces in Mindanao due to non-stop rains since over the weekend. Three people were confirmed killed and a total of 58 people remain missing in Sarangani Province.

Forecasters eye Caribbean for next tropical storm - A patch of stormy weather lingering over Central America might move northward into the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche late this weekend.

SPACE WEATHER -

Active sunspot AR1504 erupted on June 13th at 1319 UT, producing a long-duration M1-flare and hurling a CME into space. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud will deliver a glancing blow to three planets: Venus on June 15th, Earth on June 16th, and Mars on June 19th. NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% - 30% chance of geomagnetic storms when the cloud reaches Earth. Sunspot 1504 poses a growing threat for Earth-directed M-class solar flares.

HEALTH THREATS -

Internal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention records raise lab biosafety concerns - An investigation by USA Today detailed internal concerns about airflow problems at a CDC biosafety level 3 lab in Atlanta. The report cited e-mails among CDC employees discussing concerns about an incident in February in which air from a potentially contaminated lab blew into a "clean" corridor where visitors weren't wearing protective gear. The report said CDC engineers have aired written concerns about the air containment systems and that scientists working with poxviruses expressed at a meeting worries about working in the lab as currently designed. The CDC didn't address the newspaper's direct questions, but it issued a statement saying no pathogen releases have occurred and no one has been injured. Although the safety systems at times experience challenges, multiple systems are in place to cover worker and public safety, the agency added. The story said a CDC decision to re-engineer ventilation within the labs and animal holding areas prompted some of the internal safety concerns. BSL-3 labs are designed for work with pathogens that can spread through the air and cause potentially serious or fatal disease, whereas BSL-4 labs are designed for work on aerosol-transmitted agents for which there are no vaccines or treatments, such as the Ebola virus.