Monday, December 31, 2012

Jakarta sinking as water supplies dry up - Experts in Indonesia are preparing to build a huge wall to stop the ocean from swamping parts of Jakarta. Some suburbs in the capital already go underwater when there is a big tide but the problem is expected to get even worse.
Jakarta is sinking by up to 10 centimetres a year and Indonesia's national disaster centre says with oceans rising, large parts of the city, including the airport, will be inundated by 2030. Flooding and high tides are already causing problems for some residents in the city of 10 million people.
In 2009 the council built a small sea wall, but the ocean still pushes its way up through the drains and into homes. But while some suburbs still go under and the roads are rivers, residents across town have the opposite problem.The water supply to some suburbs has disappeared. As developers suck up the watertable it dries out and the city slumps into the empty cavity.
"From our observations, since the 1960s the ground water has declined around 30 metres. The decline of ground water causes pressure in the groundwater lining and that's why Jakarta is sinking." An expert hydrologist with the National Disaster Mitigation Agency says if the problem is not remedied, it could have massive consequences.
"If this continues, the area will have permanent flooding will increase especially with the additional increase of sea level in Jakarta Bay or the Java Sea, which is around seven millimetres per year. If our efforts aren't fast enough compared to the causes, more than five million people could be affected." The city's given itself less than 20 years to sort it out.
To curb the twin problems of the city sinking and the ground water drying up, the government's attempting to restrict the amount industries can take. "And in the next 30 years the government of Jakarta plans to build a giant dam around Jakarta Bay to anticipate the increased sea levels, tidal waves and land subsidence. If the land sinking isn't resolved, then there will be widespread tidal waves that would cause more extensive flooding in Jakarta."

No update on Tuesday.
Have a very Happy New Year!

**Creation is a better means of self-expression than possession;
it is through creating, not possessing, that life is revealed.**
Vida Scudder

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.1 GUATEMALA

Yesterday -
12/30/12 -
5.0 JAVA, INDONESIA
5.2 CENTRAL PERU
5.4 TAIWAN
5.3 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA
5.2 SCOTIA SEA

Red Cross forgot Sichuan earthquake donations for 4 years, money grows mold. Hundreds of donation boxes set up in Chengdu to aid victims of the 2008 Sichuan earthquake were left untouched for four years, to the extent that the money actually began to grow mold.
Over 700 boxes were placed around the city by China’s Red Cross, but were apparently forgotten about until June 2012, when China’s most reputable charity announced that a total of 6,116 yuan (US $980) had been collected. Gathering those donations was likely not a pleasant task. Photos spread online show mold growing among the piles of forgotten paper money, along with advertising leaflets and other trash.
In the wake of the May 2008 earthquake, the Red Cross signed a contract with the Maisheng Investment and Management Co. to set up 3,000 donation boxes throughout Chengdu. However only 726 boxes were put in place before the project was abandoned after a dispute between the Red Cross and Maisheng. An additional 500 boxes were abandoned in a warehouse. (photo)

Scientists predict serious earthquake in the Himalayas in 8 to 8.5 range - In what can have huge implications for countries like India, scientists have warned of massive earthquakes of the magnitude 8 to 8.5 in the Himalayas, especially in areas with their surface yet to be broken by a temblor.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Nicaraguan volcano possibly on verge of eruption - Activity has risen again at the volcano. Clouds of ash and gas are still visible in the skies over Nicaragua, after the latest eruption from the San Cristobal volcano, considered to be the most active in the world. The first wave of the latest eruption came on Tuesday. More than 15 separate smaller blasts have been reported since then. Government officials told hundreds of people in the immediate vicinity of the volcano to leave the area. (video)

Climate change affects frequency of volcanic eruptions - A study that was carried out in the Central American Pacific revealed that the increase in temperatures caused by climate change has an influence on volcanic activity.
Geologists have studied the effects of eruptions on the Earth’s temperatures for years; however, this team decided to study the contrary effect. In order to do so, they analyzed various volcanoes in Central America over the course of 10 years, and were able to reconstruct the volcanic history of the past 460,000 years. The result was that there are significantly longer periods of volcanic activity that coincide with the increase of global temperatures and melting glacial ice.
In times of global heating, the weight of the continents decreases because the glacial ice melts, whilst the weight on the oceans’ tectonic plates increases. This causes the magma to be under increased pressure under the tectonic plates, and is therefore more capable of finding its way through routes that raise it to the surface. The cooling process after this phenomenon is much slower than the heating, according to the researchers.
According to the researchers, the Earth is approaching the peak of a hot climate cycle, however, the researchers did not say whether the peak of this cycle has been accelerated due to human activity.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the South Indian Ocean -
Tropical Cyclone 06s (Mitchell) was located approximately 225 nm west of Learmonth, Australia. The last warning has been issued on this system. The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration.

Tropical Cyclone 05p (Freda) was located approximately 465 nm northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

A landslide in Colombia has left at least two people dead, seven injured and vehicles buried in mud. The disaster happened on Saturday in southwest Colombia along a road between the cities of Neiva and Florencia as part of a mountain came tumbling down. Army troops, police and Red Cross teams with heavy machinery and sniffer dogs are examining the site in search of bodies or survivors. The stability of the slope itself is also being assessed to determine if it is safe for the rescue teams to work.

'Powerful cyclone' bears down on Gulf of Alaska - The National Weather Service issued a warning for warm, strong winds on Saturday night through Sunday afternoon as a strong storm system made its way into the Gulf of Alaska.
"Along with UNUSUALLY WARM AIR, this system will support powerful Chinook winds through Turnagain Arm, Portage Valley, Anchorage, and the higher elevations near Anchorage." Accompanying the winds will be unseasonably warm temperatures. "This powerful storm is originating well to the south over the subtropics and is expected to bring unseasonably warm air with it. This should allow temperatures to rise near 50 degrees. This will allow the lion's share of precipitation to fall as rain."
Much of the Southcentral region had already seen warmer temperatures since Friday night, as high winds whipped through the Mat-Su Valley, eastern Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage, making a mess of streets previously frozen solid and topped with recent snows. According to the NWS, winds could reach as high as 100 mph along Turnagain Arm, the Anchorage Hillside and Portage Valley. In Anchorage, gusts could hit up to 70 mph on Sunday afternoon. Portions of the Interior were also expected to see high winds.

Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012 really was impressive - The storm helped break up sea ice, causing a new record low. This summer saw a new record low in the ice covering the Arctic Ocean, with levels bottoming out well below those seen in 2007, the previous low year. A major contributor to that drop was an UNUSUAL SUMMER CYCLONE, which parked over the pole for several days in the course of its nearly two-week long existence.
Researchers from Australia have now run the numbers on the storm, and found that it really does deserve the moniker "great Arctic cyclone." But they also conclude that the storm wasn't fueled by the UNUSUALLY OPEN OCEAN beneath it. The storm was hard to miss in satellite imagery, but its full history wasn't necessarily obvious. So, the authors of the new study downloaded atmospheric data and plugged it into an atmospheric model that specializes in identifying cyclonic systems.
They were able to detect the first indication of the storm over Siberia on the 2nd of August. But it really got going once it entered the Arctic basin on the 4th; by the 6th, the eye of the storm had reached its lowest pressure. The very next day, it took a slight detour and hovered over the Pole for several days before heading south over Canada and finally dissipating on the 14th.
A notable thing about the storm is that it did not seem to involve a large redistribution of atmospheric heat content. Storms like hurricanes famously take the energy from warm surface waters and redistribute it to the atmosphere. But readings from the Arctic Cyclone showed that the heat flux was small for most of its history. This suggests that the storm wasn't powered by the ocean below it, which in turn indicates that the loss of ice wasn't a factor in driving the storm's UNUSUAL STRENGTH.
"This leads to the view that it was the enhanced influence of the cyclone which contributed to the reduction in ice area, rather than low sea ice area being responsible for releasing energy to maintain the system." One potential influence on the storm that came out of the analysis was a link to a vortex at the lower boundary of the stratosphere. A tropopause polar vortex had developed a few weeks earlier and had spent time north of Europe before heading east. By the 6th of August, the vortex was near the center of the storm. The two remained associated from that point onward.
How UNUSUAL was the 2012 storm? The authors pulled up records of 1,618 Arctic cyclones that struck during August, dating back to 1979. By one measure, the 2012 storm is the STRONGEST ON RECORD: it reached the lowest pressure at the center of the storm. But, when you include other cyclonic properties such as size and duration, the storm dropped to third on the overall list.
Arctic cyclones tend to be more common and severe in winter months, so the authors expanded their analysis to include over 19,500 storms that have struck at any time of the year. In this list, the 2012 storm ranked 13th. As far as they're concerned, the storm earned the title Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012.
Climate change is thought to strengthen storms that move over the ocean because it warms the ocean waters, providing the storms with more heat and moisture. Since that doesn't appear to have been the case here, the existence of an extreme storm appears to have been a fluke weather event. Its impact on the ice, however, was shaped by climate, which had left the August ice very thin. “Decades ago, a storm of the same magnitude would have been less likely to have as large an impact on the sea ice, because at that time the ice cover was thicker and more expansive.”

SPACE WEATHER -

Newly Found Comet Could Outshine the Moon - Skywatchers may be in for a rare treat in 2013 - a newly discovered comet (Comet ISON) is expected to pass very close to the sun, putting on what COULD BE THE CELESTIAL SHOW OF A CENTURY.
The International Astronomical Union's Minor Planet Center predicts Comet ISON could be visible without binoculars or telescopes to skywatchers on Earth from early November through the first few weeks of January 2014. NASA's Mars Curiosity rover also may get a look when the comet sails past the red planet in early October. Comet ISON The comet's journey likely started in the Oort Cloud, a cluster of icy rocks that circle the sun about 50,000 times farther away than Earth's orbit. Comet ISON is expected to pass as close as 700,000 miles, or 1.1 million kilometers, from the sun on Nov. 28. If it survives, the comet could be the brightest to appear in Earth's skies since 1965 and could even be visible in daylight.

Sunday, December 30, 2012

**Nobody realizes that some people expend tremendous energy
merely to be normal.**
Albert Camus

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.2 SCOTIA SEA [south of Argentina]

Yesterday -
12/29/12 -
5.2 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU,
5.4 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.8 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
5.5 BISMARCK SEA
5.0 BISMARCK SEA

12/28/12 -
5.5 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.5 KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA REGION
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

Superfast tweets on Earthquakes – Tsunamis – Volcanoes - from Earthquake-report.com. They follow the reports of 4 agencies: USGS (USA), EMSC (Europe), GFZ (Germany) and GEONET (New Zealand).
The earliest reports often report a very good magnitude value but often are seriously wrong with their depth estimate. Important to know about earthquake depths: If you see 10 km, there is a chance of only 10% that the real depth is 10 km. In the remaining 90% cases 10 km means, “we still have to re-calculate”. These values are generated automatically by computer and only when revised by a seismologist will they get a recalculated value. GFZ is often reporting very quickly and can be trusted for magnitude and epicenter location but is often wrong with the hypocenter depth. USGS is in many cases slower, but has a more-to-be-trusted overall value.
Seismology is a very difficult science and it takes some time to recalculate the many factors involved, therefore the real magnitude and depth often varies after a couple of hours. Even after recalculation, the different agencies are very often reporting different values. The average of all of them is probably the most accurate. Especially during massive earthquakes, comparing the values is advised. [Note - I just discovered this article and have never personally used this service.]

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the South Indian Ocean -
Tropical Cyclone 06s (Mitchell) was located approximately 225 nm west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia. Expected to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone 05p (Freda) was located approximately 660 nm north-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Freda brought heavy rainfall to the Solomon Islands and is currently churning over the open Coral Sea. The storm ripped through the Solomon Islands, bringing heavy rain and damaging winds as it passed from north to south. Freshly formed Cyclone Freda whipped roofs off houses and flattened trees as it gathered strength en route to New Caledonia, forecasters said Saturday. There was also flooding from rising rivers with winds of up to 130 mph ( 90 kilometres per hour). The cyclone, a category one out of five storm, at about eight nautical miles off the south of Solomon Islands was intensifying and has now been upgraded to a category two out of five storm.
Freda may copy Evan's form, just two weeks after Cyclone Evan tore through the Pacific. "It's a very, very long way out still for us, but there are increasing signs this second cyclone is certainly going to put the north of New Zealand again at some sort of threat risk at the start of January. "It's formed in a perfect place for cyclones."
"This cyclone is expected to stay way off the eastern Australian coast for the next several days and the only impact we can see in the near future is the possibility of waves increasing into the early part of next week, but that's a long way off."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

U.S. - Week's 2nd snowstorm hits Northeast, parts of Ohio. A widespread winter storm dumped snow on Saturday, just days after the regions were hit by another storm moving from the nation's midsection.
The National Weather Service expected up to a foot of snow in parts of southern New England, with the heaviest snowfall possibly in Providence, R.I., and Boston, which declared parking bans to allow snow removal vehicles to clean the streets. Winter storm warnings were in effect in parts of those states and in Connecticut.
New York City and Philadelphia saw a mix of rain and snow as the storm moved in from the west. In Ohio, Dayton, Columbus and Cincinnati saw about 2 to 5 inches of snow by Saturday afternoon. "Expect those accumulations to kind of work their way northeastward through much of New York state and much of New England." Drivers throughout the regions were warned to be cautious. Officials lowered the speed limit on much of the Pennsylvania Turnpike, about 300 miles from the Ohio state line to east-central Pennsylvania, from 65 mph to 45 mph.
About 20 vehicles piled up in a storm-related chain-reaction crash on Interstate 93 in New Hampton, N.H. and five people were injured. In Albany, N.Y., a regional jet skidded into a snow bank at the airport and became stuck, temporarily stranding passengers. Parts of southern Indiana saw 6 to 8 inches of snow from the storm, some in areas that had received more than a foot from a blizzard earlier in the week.
That blizzard was part of a storm system that dumped more than a foot of snow in some places and has been blamed for at least 16 deaths. It also spawned more than a dozen tornadoes in Alabama. But Saturday's snow wasn't as heavy as that of the previous storm.

Friday, December 28, 2012

**People hasten to judge in order not to be judged themselves.**
Albert Camus

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
None 5.0 or larger.

Yesterday -
12/27/12 -
5.2 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.3 NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
5.3 TONGA
5.8 OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

1500 farmers stay put as volcano erupts in Nicaragua - About 1500 farmers living on the slopes of the San Cristobal volcano have refused to leave, despite being ordered to evacuate as the volcano spews gas, sand and ash. "People have not evacuated because we do not want to go." The San Cristobal volcano is located near Chinandegga City, some 150 km (93 miles) north of the capital Managua. On Wednesday, Nicaragua started evacuating more than 300 families in a radius of three kilometers from San Cristobal Volcano, north Chinandega, because of its increased activity. Officials also declared an amber alert for five sq km ( two sq miles) around the volcano, which began spewing ash and gas on Tuesday.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
Tropical depression 27w (Wukong) was located approximately 330 nm east of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Tropical storm Wukong has left at least four people dead in the Philippines, which is still recovering from a typhoon earlier this month that killed over a thousand people. Officials say three people were also missing as the storm cut through the central Philippines on Thursday, overflowing rivers, flooding towns, and making many roads impassable.
Three people died when a tree fell on their house in Eastern Samar province. Another was killed in a landslide in Iloilo province. More than 6,000 people fled to evacuation centers to escape the storm, which was expected to weaken as it moved over the western resort island of Palawan on Thursday.
Wukong was not as powerful as Typhoon Bopha, which hit the southern Philippines on December 4, killing more than 1,000 people and leaving hundreds more missing. The country is vulnerable to severe flooding caused by heavy rains and tsunamis. It is hit by about 20 major storms or typhoons each year.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

U.S. - Storm blows through East; 135,000 in dark in Arkansas. A muted version of a winter storm that has killed more than a dozen people across the eastern half of the country plodded across the Northeast on Thursday, trapping airliners in snow or mud and frustrating travelers still trying to return home after Christmas.
The storm, which was blamed for at least 16 deaths farther south and west, brought plenty of wind, rain and snow to the Northeast when it blew in Wednesday night. Lights generally remained on and cars mostly stayed on the road, unlike many harder-hit places including Arkansas, where 200,000 homes and businesses lost power.
By afternoon, the precipitation had stopped in parts of Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Massachusetts, though snow continued to fall in upstate New York and northern New England. Parts of snow-savvy New Hampshire expected as much as 18 inches. The Northeast's heaviest snowfall was in northern Pennsylvania, upstate New York and inland sections of several New England states. The storm was expected to head into Canada on Friday.
While the East Coast's largest cities — New York, Philadelphia and Boston — saw mostly high winds and cold rain, other areas experienced a messy mix of rain and snow that slowed commuters and those still heading home from holiday trips. Some inbound flights were delayed in Philadelphia and New York's LaGuardia Airport, but the weather wasn't leading to delays at other major East Coast airports.
Earlier, the storm system spawned tornadoes on Christmas along the Gulf Coast. Deaths from wind-toppled trees were reported in Alabama, Texas and Louisiana, but car crashes caused most of the fatalities. Two people were killed in Kentucky crashes, a New York man was killed after his pickup truck skidded on an icy road in northwest Pennsylvania and an Ohio teenager died after losing control of her car and smashing into an oncoming snowplow.
In Arkansas, where two people died in a head-on collision, some of those who lost electricity could be without it for as long as a week because of snapped poles and wires after ice and 10 inches of snow coated power lines. By Thursday evening, power to thousands of customers had been restored, but more than 135,000 homes and businesses remained in the dark.
Farther east, the storm knocked out power to more than 7,000 homes and businesses in Maryland. In New Jersey, gusts of more than 70 mph were recorded along the coast, and the weather service issued a flood warning for some coastal areas. There were about 800 power outages in Vermont, but only a handful in neighboring New Hampshire. Schools on break and workers taking holiday vacations meant that many people could avoid messy commutes, but those who had to travel were urged to avoid it.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

They've always accused of being obsessed with the weather in the UK - but this year they've had a good excuse. In 2012, they've swung from droughts to floods, hot to cold. The impact has been felt far and wide, not least by the UK's burgeoning wine industry.
The culprit for much of the extreme weather that the UK has seen this year is the jet stream. Usually, this river of air in the upper atmosphere flows in a fairly straight line from the east coast of America, east across the Atlantic. It fluctuates a little all the time, but this year, it underwent large variations and then got locked in these UNUSUAL PATTERNS.
"When the jet stream moves up to the north, and then travels back down to the UK, it brings with it cold air, blizzards, very severe and unpleasant weather from that perspective. On the other hand, when the jet stream moves south, then we get these periods of intense flooding, which we have seen through the second part of this year."
"The question of how it will change is still a very active research problem, and we don't have clear-cut answers yet. But I think there is quite a big possibility that what we will see is the jet stream undergoing quite dramatic and erratic excursions." And the UK's geographical position under the jet stream means that they could see the worst of this.
"I think it is a bit unwise, and possibly even a bit dangerous, to think that the climate of the UK will just gradually warm and we'll transition to a more balmy southern European climate. If the ideas about a more fluctuating jet stream are correct, then in fact what we will be seeing is a climate with many more extremes: both extremes of wetness and flooding on the one hand, and extremes and dryness and possibly even coldness on the other."
The exact course that the UK's climate will take is still uncertain, and scientists say they need more powerful computers and better climate models to improve how they predict their future weather. Despite this, the Environment Agency is starting to prepare for a change in their weather patterns. Flooding is a particular concern, and the agency has been working to put more early flood warnings and flood defences in place.
"If you think back to the major flooding in the summer of 2007, not only were there a large number of properties affected by the flooding, there were also some key bits of infrastructure - electricity substations and water treatment plants, which were serious threatened. We've been trying to make sure over the period since then that our infrastructure is better protected." Other industries, such as agriculture, also need to start planning ahead.
Scientists at Kew are looking at a variety of crops from around the world that could potentially survive a more changeable climate in the UK. "If you look at other parts of the world where you have droughts, for example, there are a lot of your mints, thymes, rosemarys that actually do quite well under warmer and drier conditions....With the UK, I think one of the things we really need to do is to go back and look at some of our old varieties of crops. To go back, look for some traits associated with possible drought tolerance, or other extremes of conditions, and that can be your barleys, your oats, your peas."
But finding a plant that can cope with every kind of weather won't be easy. "It would be difficult to come up with an ideal plant that is able to tolerate drought and then tolerate very, very heavy rain and flooding. Out there in nature there is likely to be some kind of solution - the trick is to be able to identify it."

SPACE WEATHER -

SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE - 2013 is only days away, and according to most forecasters, Solar Max should be approaching as well. But is it? Declining sunspot counts and anemic solar activity suggest an interesting possibility: Perhaps Solar Max has already passed. So far, Solar Cycle 24 is underperforming even compared to the NOAA led Solar Cycle Prediction Panel's low expectations. There is still a strong chance that Cycle 24 will rebound and peak in 2013 as expected. It might even be a double-peaked cycle like the cycle before it. As 2013 nears only one thing is certain: WE DON'T KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN. (graph)

HEALTH THREATS -

Measles vaccine failures, typhoid vaccine shortage -
Canadian outbreak showed measles vulnerability even with vaccination. Despite very high measles immunization coverage in Quebec, the province was the site in 2011 of the largest measles outbreak in North America in the past decade. A study of the outbreak found an unexpected vulnerability to illness even in recipients of a two-dose vaccination regimen. Confirmed cases in the outbreak numbered 725, with 678 of them resulting from one super-spreading importation. Overall, adolescents aged 12 to 17 years made up 56% of the cases in Quebec. Among patients in this age-group, 22% had received two doses of vaccine; illness was milder and was associated with a significantly lower risk of hospitalization in these patients compared with unvaccinated patients and those who had received just one dose. The Quebec epidemic "provides an opportunity for jurisdictions with a stated goal of measles elimination to reflect both on the very tight levels of population immunity required and how tenuous these levels may be."

UK faces typhoid vaccine shortage - International travelers in the United Kingdom are facing shortages of typhoid vaccine related to an October recall of a product made by Sanofi Pasteur. The immunization is typically given to travelers free by the National Health Service, but many doctor's offices and some private travel medicine clinics have run out of doses. Stocks of Typhim Vi are still running low and the shortage many last through early 2013. The shortage has been exacerbated by a decision by GlaxoSmithKline, another typhoid vaccine maker, to focus on other vaccines for childhood immunization programs. So far there is no indication that the shortage is affecting patients from the United States. In October the CDC posted an announcement about the Sanofi recall on its travelers' health page noting that the six recalled vaccine lots may have lower antigen content than intended, though the company wasn't recommending that people who had received vaccine from the recalled lots be revaccinated.

RECALLS & ALERTS

Thursday, December 27, 2012

U.S. - A powerful winter storm that spawned tornadoes in the Deep South and brought Christmas Day snow to Dallas moved east on Wednesday, bringing blizzard conditions in Indiana and Ohio and severe thunderstorms in the Southeast. The death toll has risen to six from the winter storms in the nation's midsection.
A powerful winter storm system pounded the nation's midsection Wednesday and headed toward the Northeast, where people braced for the high winds and heavy snow that disrupted holiday travel, knocked out power to thousands of homes and were blamed in at least six deaths. Hundreds of flights were canceled or delayed, scores of motorists got stuck on icy roads or slid into drifts, and blizzard warnings were issued amid snowy gusts of 30 mph that blanketed roads and windshields, at times causing whiteout conditions.
"The way I've been describing it is as a low-end blizzard, but that's sort of like saying a small Tyrannosaurus rex." The system, which spawned Gulf Coast region tornadoes on Christmas Day and a historic amount of snow in Arkansas, pushed through the Upper Ohio Valley and headed toward the Northeast. Forecasts called for 12 to 18 inches of snow inland from western New York to Maine starting late Wednesday and into Thursday and tapering off into a mix of rain and snow closer to the coast, where little accumulation was expected in such cities as New York and Boston.
The storm left freezing temperatures in its aftermath, and forecasters also said parts of the Southeast from Virginia to Florida would see severe thunderstorms. Schools on break and workers taking holiday vacations meant that many people could avoid messy commutes, but those who had to travel were implored to avoid it. Snow was blamed for scores of vehicle accidents as far east as Maryland, and about two dozen counties in Indiana and Ohio issued snow emergency travel alerts, urging people to go out on the roads only if necessary.
Some 40 vehicles got bogged down trying to make it up a slick hill in central Indiana, and four state snowplows slid off roads as snow fell at the rate of 3 inches an hour in some places. Two passengers in a car on a sleet-slickened Arkansas highway were killed Wednesday in a head-on collision, and two people, including a 76-year-old Milwaukee woman, were killed Tuesday on Oklahoma highways. Deaths from wind-toppled trees were reported in Texas and Louisiana.
Traffic crawled at 25 mph on Interstate 81 in Maryland, where authorities reported scores of accidents. More than 1,400 flights were canceled by evening. In Arkansas, some of the nearly 200,000 people who lost power could be without it for as long as a week because of snapped poles and wires after ice and 10 inches of snow coated power lines. SNOW HADN'T FALLEN IN LITTLE ROCK ON CHRISTMAS SINCE 1926, but the capital ended Tuesday with 10.3 inches of it.
Other states also had scattered outages. As the storm moved east, New England state highway departments were treating roads and getting ready to mobilize with snowfall forecasts of a foot or more that was expected to start falling late Wednesday and through Thursday. Behind the storm, Mississippi's governor declared states of emergency in eight counties with more than 25 people reported injured and 70 homes left damaged.

**Live to the point of tears.**
Albert Camus

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.3 NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
5.1 OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
Cluster of 4.0+ quakes OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE (near Maule)

Yesterday -
12/26/12 -
5.2 ASCENSION ISLAND REGION
5.3 BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.1 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.

12/25/12 -
5.2 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.4 BLACK SEA, OFFSHORE GEORGIA
5.1 PAKISTAN
5.2 MOLUCCA SEA

12/24/12 -
5.1 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.1 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND
5.1 ATACAMA, CHILE
5.2 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA

The earthquake and a pipeline explosion rattled Russia's Black Sea coast - Wednesday, a gas pipeline explosion and mild earthquake struck near the Russian Black Sea resort city of Sochi, the second earthquake in the area in the past three days. On Sunday, a 5.5 magnitude earthquake was recorded 47km (29mi) southwest of Och'amch'ire, Georgia, with the epicenter of the quake about 150 km (93 miles) off Sochi in the Black Sea.
The epicenter of Wednesday's earthquake, which measured 5.3 in magnitude, was roughly 20 miles east of Sunday's epicenter. Striking at 0242 local time (2242 GMT), the quake caused little or no damage to buildings. Shortly before the earthquake, a gas pipeline ruptured and exploded near Sochi. The cause of the explosion is unknown at this time. The city's power plant switched to fuel oil to power the city's electrical grid. Sochi is located on the Black Sea coast of Georgia. It is the first Russian city to be awarded a Winter Olympics.
Georgians panicky, expect major earthquake on Black Sea coast - Thousands of people have remained outdoors in Batumi, Poti, Kobuleti and Kutaisi for several hours in fear of a devastating earthquake. The quake rumors started spreading after tremors early on Wednesday morning damaged dozens of homes on the Black Sea coast.
Georgian television reported the evacuation of hospital patients in Batumi. Doctors said the patients insisted on the evacuation. Fishermen said that FISH HAD LEFT THE COASTAL WATERS, which might be an omen of a powerful earthquake. The Georgian National Seismology Center said it was impossible to forecast an earthquake and the panic was totally groundless. The center said that quakes happened in the Black Sea along the Georgian coast in the previous century, although that area was subject to less seismic activity than the Caucasian Ridge.
Dozens of tremors have happened in the sea at the depth of ten kilometers, 40 kilometers away from Anaklia, since December 23. The most powerful of them were the earthquakes on December 23 (5.7 points) and on the 25th (5 and 5.5 points) - the Tuesday tremors were recorded at 40 kilometers from the coast of Georgia in the Black Sea. In the ones on Sunday, the epicenter was also at 10 km's depth underneath the Black Sea while the distance to the shoreline was 29 and 32 km.

Quake jolted Canadians from complacency - After Canada’s largest earthquake in more than 60 years struck off British Columbia on Oct. 27, many residents complained that the provincial government failed to issue a timely tsunami warning. Authorities waited for more than 40 minutes after U.S. authorities registered the quake at magnitude 7.8 — the size of the one that leveled San Francisco 106 years ago. During that delay, a killer tidal wave could have swamped Vancouver Island, with 760,000 people living near sea level just off the Canadian mainland.
One provincial government official, when pressed about the reasons for the delay, told a reporter: “The earthquake was your warning.” Many West Coast Canadians, appalled by the government’s response, are urging action to prepare for the “Big One,” which scientists predict could hit populated areas such as Vancouver, Seattle and Portland, and threaten about 8 million people. “It’s definitely a hot spot."
“The focus has traditionally been on California. But there’s been 10 or so damaging earthquakes, magnitude 6 or 7 plus, in the Pacific Northwest, just over the last 160 years.” Earthquakes of that strength can cause buildings to shake violently and kill as many as 25,000 people at the epicenter.
The latest Canadian temblor created little damage, despite its size and location over a major earthquake fault. The earthquake struck about 450 miles north of Vancouver Island off the coast of the Haida Gwaii archipelago. “We really dodged a bullet this time. That earthquake was huge.”
British Columbia’s emergency management agency is upgrading its warning system to pass along alerts immediately from the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center to local officials, major media outlets, and first responders. The agency said it also will use social media and email to warn people. It has created a mobile version of its website for smartphones and is developing an interactive map of tsunami warning zones.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Volcano activity of December 26 - Significant eruptive activity continued over the holiday at Plosky Tolbachik (Kamchatka Peninsula), Popocatepetl volcano (Mexico) and Tungurahua volcano (Ecuador), while two additional volcanoes (Copahue and San Cristobal) also kept Chile and Nicaragua on alert.

Nicaragua - Authorities say they've ordered the evacuation of some 300 families living on the flanks of the country's highest volcano after it began spewing hot gas and ash. A yellow alert was declared on Wednesday in a 2.9km radius around the San Cristobal volcano to allow the evacuation of residents who would be at highest risk during a significant eruption.
San Cristobal began spewing out hot gases and ash on Tuesday. The authorities declared an amber alert covering 5 sq km around the volcano. 15 eruptions had been recorded over the past day at the volcano northeast of the capital of Managua. The volcano had emitted regular small eruptions, but larger ones were unpredictable. Authorities had wanted to move the closest residents away from the volcano as a precaution.

Chile lowers alert level over Copahue eruption - Chilean authorities increased the alert level of Copahue volcano when it began spewing ash on Sunday, a possilbe prelude for a coming eruption. The “change in the alert level implies that we maintain a close monitoring of the volcano” and emergency plans in case of a large eruption remain in place.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
Tropical Depression Wukong was located approximately 285 nm south-southwest of Manila, Philippines. The last warning has been issued on this system.

Tropical storm Wukong struck the Philippines at about 12:00 GMT on the 26th. Just three short weeks after Typhoon “Bopha” hammered the Philippines leaving some 1,050 people dead and more than 800 missing in the southern Philippines, the less intensive storm hit.
Due to the influence of Wukong (local name Quinta), 5,748 passengers were stranded at a dozen of ports in central Philippines by 7 a.m. Wednesday. Siargao and Dinagat were ordered evacuated. Twenty-one provinces in Visayas and Mindanao were placed under either Storm Signal 1 or 2 as Tropical Storm Quinta continued to intensify while moving toward Eastern Visayas. Tropical depression Quinta intensified into a storm on Christmas Day.

Thousands still homeless after Evan - More than 8000 people remain homeless over a week after Cyclone Evan ripped across Samoa, Wallis and Futuna and Fiji, the United Nations said today.

Cyclone risk in Indonesia said increasing - Sutopo predicted more cyclones would hit in Indonesia in March to April next year while floods and landslides would hit many parts of the country from January to March.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Severe snowstorm hits US, bears down on East Coast - Drivers have been recommended to stay at home as many roads have become treacherous. A severe winter storm that whipped up tornadoes in the southern US has brought heavy snow to the Midwest and threatens disruption in the east.
More delays are expected as the storm moves towards New York state and Maine, where as much as 18 inches (46cm) of snow is expected in the next 24 hours. The National Weather Service has warned of near-zero visibility in Buffalo, New York, where heavy snowfall is predicted to combine with high winds. Weather warnings are in place from Florida and the Gulf Coast all the way up to New England.
Little Rock, Arkansas, saw its first snow on Christmas Day in 83 years, while in neighbouring Oklahoma seven inches of snow was blamed for a 21-vehicle pile-up on an interstate highway outside Oklahoma City. Thirty-four tornadoes were reported in the southern states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama on Tuesday. A large section of a church roof in Mobile, Alabama, was ripped off by a twister.
Video - Tornadoes on the Gulf Coast.

Monday, December 24, 2012

Red alert for volcano in Chile - Chile has raised the alert level for the Copahue volcano to red, the highest possible. The volcano is in Argentina's south-western Neuquen province, near the Chilean border. It began spewing ash and gas on Saturday morning.
In Argentina, the authorities have told residents of local villages to monitor the situation. Many people have already left the area as a precaution. Ash has been raining down on both sides of the border.
The Chilean authorities raised the alert - first issued on Saturday - to the highest level in Biobio region after the Copahue volcano increased seismic activity overnight. Roads were being cleared for possible evacuation. The plume of smoke is about 1,500m (5,000ft) high and the wind is pushing it away from Argentina. Planes flying over the southern Andes have also been warned to avoid the area.
Hundreds of flights were cancelled last year due to the eruption of Puyehue volcano, in Chile. That eruption caused huge economic damage not only to property in the area but also to tourism in Bariloche and other resorts. The Copahue eruption comes at the height of the tourism season. Visitors from all over the world go to the area in the summer months to enjoy the mountains, lakes and also the Copahue and Caviahue thermal spas. (photo) Video

No updates on the 25th and 26th (unless there's something huge).
Have a very Merry (and safe) Christmas!

**Peace is the only battle worth waging.**
Albert Camus

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.5 BLACK SEA, OFFSHORE GEORGIA
5.2 VANUATU

Yesterday -
12/23/12 -
5.3 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.1 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.5 MYANMAR
5.0 NORTHERN PERU
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS
5.4 TAIWAN REGION

U.S. Pacific Northwest - Experts say the region is not remotely ready for the kind of big earthquake they now know is likely. People often remember the calm, the quiet, how normal everything seemed before a disaster.
During the long seconds of a magnitude 9.0 Cascadia earthquake, the soft loose soils along the Columbia River could quickly convert to the consistency of liquid or quicksand. Buried water mains and sewer lines could crack, separate, or float to the surface, spilling their contents across roads, landscapes and waterways. Downtown, older brick-and-mortar buildings could shift and shake, shedding bricks and rooftops in piles of debris. In the flash of a few minutes, pretty much all of Clark County would be likely to find itself without power, without reliable roads and without safe water. And it could stay that way for months. Such devastation might seem unreal. But it's happened before -- across the globe, and also right here.
Just off the Pacific coast -- about 50 miles out to sea, and stretching from Northern California to British Columbia -- a 700-mile fault marks where the Juan de Fuca geologic plate is sliding under the North America plate. The process, which started about 20 million years ago, is pushing North America over Juan de Fuca at a rate of about 1.5 inches a year. Rock from the dipping, or subducting, plate melts as it moves under the continent, feeding the volcanic arc that includes Mount St. Helens, Mount Hood and Mount Rainier.
Pressure also builds up along the fault. The plates don't move smoothly but tend to stick and lock against one another, resisting movement until the fault suddenly slips, creating deep and potentially very deadly earthquakes. There's no way to predict exactly when the fault will move again. The last time it happened was just over 300 years ago -- when the entire 700-mile stretch slipped in the span of about five minutes, creating a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and a massive tsunami recorded in Japanese history as occurring Jan. 26, 1700.
Geologists have uncovered evidence of similarly sized quakes in the region in 1310 AD, 810 AD, 400 AD, 170 BC and 600 BC. There may have been more, but it can be hard to find evidence of earthquakes in the rock record. Because of that, scientists continue to debate how often the fault ruptures. Some think it happens about every 500 years; others think it's more like every 250 years. "We've gone past that 250-year time scale already."
Analysis ranks the 25-year probability, vulnerability and risk rating for a strong quake -- if not a full 9.0 Cascadia quake -- as high. Every year, the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network records about 2,000 earthquakes in Washington and Oregon. Most are shallow quakes with magnitudes of less than 3.0. Larger shallow quakes are far less frequent but can be dangerous. Interplate quakes can cause even more damage. Scientists think both of those types of earthquakes happen at a rate of about one per 50 years in the Pacific Northwest.
Then there's a Cascadia quake, which would be a subduction zone earthquake. It's hard to tell how much damage a 9.0 quake like that would cause, but a report by the Department of Natural Resources suggests the damage could go well into billions of dollars and injure or possibly kill thousands of people. "Big picture for a Cascadia (earthquake) … we're definitely looking at years before we're made whole again. If you look at (Hurricanes) Katrina and Sandy, at the Japanese earthquake -- the damage from those is very similar to what we could experience in the Pacific Northwest."
Scientists didn't understand the potential of the Cascadia fault until the 1980s, and that information didn't reach the general public until about 1993. "It's incredible because there's a huge whopping fault that stretches from North California to Canada, and it wasn't until the late '80s that scientists reached a consensus on the hazard. It wasn't until about 2000 that scientists first reached a consensus that the (potential) earthquake could be a magnitude 8 or 9." And while that information was under debate, buildings, pipelines and other structures continued to go up, based on construction standards that said the region was relatively geologically stable.
"We keep upping the ante, we keep making buildings stronger and stronger, and then another earthquake comes along, things are destroyed and we have to change everything again." "Nobody's code anticipates Cascadia." In a Cascadia quake, restaurants, businesses and condominiums -- as well as water, sewer and power lines -- near the Columbia River could end up shifting, rising or sinking in the liquefied soils.
Another process, called lateral spreading, could also create hazardous conditions. That happens when liquefied soils move down a slope, spreading the ground surface. During the 2011 quake in Tokyo, the ground spread by 5 feet in spots and moved a river. Risk assessment maps show swaths of land around Hazel Dell, central Vancouver and La Center with soft soils that could be vulnerable to landslides or other hazards from amplified shaking. Throughout the county, and in downtown Vancouver, older buildings -- especially those made of unreinforced masonry -- could easily shed bricks, glass and roofing, or collapse outright during the shaking.
Parts of the ground could rise up unevenly, cracking and shifting roadways. Bridges, even if they didn't collapse, could take weeks to assess and likely longer to repair, as would train tracks and other transportation networks. "It is difficult to identify a part of the community that is not vulnerable to an earthquake. People, buildings, emergency services, hospitals, transportation lifelines, and water and wastewater utilities are susceptible to the effects of an earthquake. In addition, electric and natural gas utilities and dams have a potential to be damaged."
In the aftermath of a Cascadia quake, it's likely that power could be out for weeks, perhaps months. Bridges could be similarly out of service, roads and train tracks damaged. It's a good idea to prepare an emergency kit with several days' worth of food, a gallon of water per day per person, flashlights, blankets, a first-aid kit and even a generator. "What people really need to be thinking about is how to be as self-sufficient as possible. It's very fair to point at what's happened with Hurricane Sandy. You need to have a plan and be ready to be an island unto yourself."
Some parts of New York and New Jersey that were hit by Superstorm Sandy in late October are still without power. That's a lesson if you think the standard suggestion of a three-day supply of food and water is more than enough. "If you look at Sandy, several days past landfall and there were still people who couldn't get basic supplies."
Water is especially important, even if you have a well. "One thing that happens in earthquakes is that they change the groundwater system. They can increase or decrease the flow in a well. In 2001 in the Nisqually quake, several wells in Eastern Washington dried up."
Another bit of advice is to make sure your gas tank is always half-full. It's good for the car, but it also gives you some mobility if all the infrastructure fails. "Unfortunately it's usually a minority of people that prepare. The lesson with Hurricane Sandy, with Katrina, with Japan, is that it could happen to us. It's not just on TV. It's a reality in the Pacific Northwest." (map and photos)

New Zealand strong quake risk now 2% - It is almost 12 months since the last major earthquake in Canterbury and scientists say the risk of another large one is reducing all the time.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the North Arabian Sea -
Tropical Cyclone Four was located approximately 280 nm southeast of Cape Guardafui, Somalia. Landfall is expected to be along the northern Somalia coast.

Tropical Cyclone 4 Threatens Somalia - The recently developed tropical cyclone will threaten portions of Somalia with heavy rain early this week. Tropical Cyclone 4 developed Saturday night, nearly 600 miles east-southeast of Cape Guardafui, Somalia. As of Sunday morning, EST, this system had sustained winds near 45 mph.
This cyclone was moving westward at about 18 mph. Some slight strengthening is possible through Monday morning before weakening will occur. This strengthening could allow the system to become a moderate to perhaps strong tropical storm briefly. Rainfall from this system will likely reach Somalia starting Monday afternoon and will continue through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts will generally average 2-4 inches (50-100 mm), with local amounts exceeding 6 inches (150 mm). For some areas, this would approach or even equal the normal annual rainfall.
Widespread strong winds are not expected to impact Somalia as the system is expected to weaken, perhaps even dissipate, prior to making landfall early Tuesday. Still, a few wind gusts of 30-40 mph (50-65 kph) may occur, especially at the coast.

Cyclone's remnants to drench northern New Zealand - A deluge of rain was expected in the north of the North Island last night, with 70 to 100mm forecast to fall in Auckland, Northland and the Coromandel Peninsula. Despite being downgraded to "former" cyclone, Evan continues to move southwest towards New Zealand.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

A new analysis of temperature records indicates that the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet is warming nearly twice as fast as previously thought. US researchers say they found the first evidence of warming during the southern hemisphere's summer months.
They are worried that the increased melting of ice as a result of warmer temperatures could contribute to sea-level rise. Previously scientists were unable to draw any conclusions from the Byrd data as the records were incomplete. The new work used a computer model of the atmosphere and a numerical analysis method to fill in the missing observations. The results indicate an increase of 2.4C in average annual temperature between 1958 and 2010.
"What we're seeing is one of the strongest warming signals on Earth. This is the first time we've been able to determine that there's warming going on during the summer season." It might be natural to expect that summers even in Antarctica would be warmer than other times of the year. But the region is so cold, it is extremely rare for temperatures to get above freezing.
This is a critical threshold. "The fact that temperatures are rising in the summer means there's a prospect of WAIS not only being melted from the bottom as we know it is today, but in future it looks probable that it will be melting from the top as well." Previous research indicated that the WAIS is being warmed by the ocean, but this new work suggests that the atmosphere is playing a role as well.
The scientists say that the rise in temperatures has been caused by changes in winds and weather patterns coming from the Pacific Ocean. "We're seeing a more dynamic impact that's due to climate change that's occurring elsewhere on the globe translating down and increasing the heat transportation to the WAIS." But he was unable to say with certainty that the greater warming his team found was due to human activities. "The jury is still out on that. That piece of research has not been done. My opinion is that it probably is, but I can't say that definitively."
Whatever the source, the researchers are concerned that this warming can lead to more melting and have direct and indirect effects on global sea levels. The direct impacts are the run-off of melting waters into the sea. But the scientists say this is unlikely to happen for several decades because much of the water is likely to percolate down the ice sheet and refreeze. (map & photos)

Cargo Continues Moving on the Mississippi River, but Perhaps Not for Long - A Midwestern drought has brought the river, one of the world's largest navigable inland waterways, to water levels so low that they threaten to shut down shipping.
Nebraska - A Nebraska natural resources district may impose limits on irrigation in the wake of drought conditions and declining water levels.
Kansas - Dry conditions are causing significant drops in the water levels in Kansas lakes. The drought in many respects is more severe than the droughts of the 1930s and 1950s.

Sunday, December 23, 2012

Chile officials monitor Copahue volcano - Activity at the Copahue volcano on the border of Chile and Argentina has authorities in both countries on alert.
The Copahue volcano in Argentina's Neuquen province and Chile's Biobio region began spewing ash and gas early on Saturday, but officials say it's still in an early eruption stage. The volcano's smoke plume led Argentine emergency officials to issue a yellow alert and constantly monitor its activity in case of a full eruption. Flights expected to pass by the area around the volcano have been warned. Officials say there's no need yet to evacuate people near the volcano, which is part of the Andes mountain chain. Many residents have already left the area as a precaution. Another volcano in southern Chile erupted last year, forcing the cancellation of hundreds of flights and the evacuation of more than 600 people.

**In order to understand the world,
one has to turn away from it on occasion.**
Albert Camus

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.2 TURKEY-IRAN BORDER REGION
5.2 VANUATU

Yesterday -
12/22/12 -
5.3 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.1 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.5 MYANMAR
5.0 NORTHERN PERU
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS
5.4 TAIWAN REGION

12/21/12 -
6.7 VANUATU
5.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 TONGA

Japan - Probability of major quake in Kanto rises sharply. The government has upgraded the probability that a powerful earthquake - a lower 6 on the Japanese seismic intensity scale of 7, or stronger - will hit cities in the Kanto region within 30 years, with Mito at 62 percent and Chiba at 75 percent.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Hawaiian Islands Are Dissolving And Will Disappear, Study Finds - New research has revealed that in addition to the well known forces of soil erosion, the Hawaiian Islands are experiencing significant erosion due to the groundwater under the islands working to dissolve the island from within. Specifically, the mountains on Oahu will eventually be completely leveled and end up as flat as Midway Island.
The effect that groundwater is having, dissolving the rock that makes up the Hawaiian Islands, is actually more significant than the forces of soil erosion. “We tried to figure out how fast the island is going away and what the influence of climate is on that rate. More material is dissolving from those islands than what is being carried off through erosion."
The future of the islands is also going to be influenced significantly by plate tectonics. Oahu is currently being slowly pushed northwest, and as it is, the mountains are being pushed upwards somewhat. “According to the researchers’ estimates, the net effect is that Oahu will continue to grow for as long as 1.5 million years. Beyond that, the force of groundwater will eventually triumph and the island will begin its descent to a low-lying topography.”
“The Hawaiian islands were (and continue to be) continuously formed from volcanic activity initiated at an undersea magma source called a hotspot. As the tectonic plate beneath much of the Pacific Ocean moves to the northwest, the hot spot remains stationary, slowly creating new volcanoes. Due to the hotspot’s location, the only active volcanoes are located around the southern half of the Big Island. The newest volcano, Lōihi Seamount, is located south of the Big Island’s coast.”
“The last volcanic eruption outside the Big Island occurred at Haleakalā on Maui before the late 18th century, though it could have been hundreds of years earlier. In 1790, Kīlauea exploded with the deadliest eruption (of the modern era) known to have occurred in what is now the United States. As many as 5,405 warriors and their families marching on Kīlauea were killed by that eruption.” “Slope instability of the volcanoes has generated damaging earthquakes with related tsunamis, particularly in 1868 and 1975. Steep cliffs have been caused by catastrophic debris avalanches on the submerged flanks of ocean island volcanos.” (photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the North Arabian Sea -
Tropical Cyclone Four was located approximately 525 nm east-southeast of Cape Guardafui, Somalia. Landfall is expected to be along the northern Somalia coast. The limited numerical guidance is in good agreement up to landfall, after which, the models diverge with some indicating a recurvature back into the water and towards the Equator.

Philippines - A low-pressure area approaching from the east has a small chance of becoming a cyclone but nevertheless remains a threat to parts of Mindanao, may trigger landslides. "The latest numerical models suggest slow intensification within the next several days, in contrast to earlier models that showed that it might reach cyclone category before reaching the PAR."

Tail end of cyclone creeps towards North Island, New Zealand - A severe weather watch has been issued for much of the North Island, with the remains of tropical Cyclone Evan steadily tracking towards the North Island. Despite being downgraded to a "former" cyclone, Evan continues to move southwest towards New Zealand.
Evan's last act may be miserable Christmas - The northern parts of New Zealand can expect wet and windy weather over the next few days, including Christmas, thanks to a deep low - the remnants of former Cyclone Evan. The cyclone devastated parts of Samoa and Fiji earlier this week, killing 15 people and causing $160 million damage in Samoa. It inflicted severe damage on the French islands of Wallis and Futuna, and then Fiji.
Cyclone impact on Samoa as bad as 2009 tsunami - The economic impact of Cyclone Evan on Samoa will be at least as bad as the deadly tsunami that caused widespread damage in 2009, the International Monetary Fund says.
Samoa power generation troubled after Cyclone Evan - Samoa's power utility is negotiating to hire additional diesel generators because damage from Cyclone Evan cut power production by about 60 percent.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

UK prepares for further flooding as downpours continue - Six severe flood warnings are in place for south west England. Rain-hit rivers in south-west England will struggle to cope with more rain, the Environment Agency has warned.
One severe flood warning remains in place in Cornwall, with over 200 flood warnings in force in England and Wales. Police have warned motorists not to use minor roads north of Barnstaple in Devon, and tents have been issued to residents in Lostwithiel, Cornwall. Further downpours on Christmas Eve may cause more flooding with the south-west badly hit, the BBC Weather Centre says.
Fire crews remained in the Cornish towns of Helston and Lostwithiel overnight to respond to any further flooding incidents. The River Cober, which broke its banks resulting in devastating flooding on Saturday, has started to recede. But the Environment Agency still has a severe flood warning in force in the Helston area. "There is nowhere in Cornwall that can really cope with the rain that's coming. Wherever the rain falls, the rivers will respond quickly. We have problems with 'flashy' rivers in Cornwall... where the rivers respond very rapidly with lots of run-off. We also have these problems with the catchments being so wet, that our bigger rivers... are also filling up and rising very rapidly".
The Environment Agency has said there is a heightened flood risk across Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Dorset, Bristol, Hampshire, the Isle of Wight, West and East Sussex, south Wales, Ceredigion, Gwynedd and North Yorkshire. Scotland has 18 flood alerts and 24 flood warnings. mainly for Aberdeenshire and Tayside. Outbreaks of rain will be heaviest in Scotland on Sunday, with the rain returning to the south-west on Christmas Eve. "This rain will be falling on saturated surfaces and will continue to bring a risk of flooding."
Storm force winds for the Northern Isles and gales affecting Northern Ireland will transfer to parts of southern Scotland and northern England during Sunday morning. South-west England is at further risk of some flooding issues and disruption when the rain is due to return on Monday. In Lostwithiel, Cornish disaster relief agency Shelterbox, which was recently delivering aid to Syria, is providing tents to residents who have been forced to leave their homes.Further west in Devon, police have warning the public not to travel on minor roads north of Barnstaple, which are closed due to extensive flooding.
Residents in nearby Pilton may have to be evacuated if floodwater from the River Yeo reaches their homes. The River Caen in Braunton has also breached its banks for a second night. Rail company First Great Western has advised customers with non-essential journeys in the south-west not to attempt to travel on trains or replacement buses, due to flooding and poor road conditions.
Heavy rain has caused two landslides in Looe, Cornwall which have cut off the nearby the village of Hannafore. A woman was rescued from her car by passers-by after it was swept into a river in Llancarfan in the Vale of Glamorgan. Flood barriers have been put up in Stonehaven, Aberdeenshire, as water in the River Carron continues to rise. The Maritime and Coastguard Agency said its teams were distributing sandbags to protect properties and evacuate residents from houseboats at Velator Quay in Devon. In Exeter, a resident said that flood barriers had been put up near his house. "I've never seen them deployed here before and my neighbours, who have been here for 30 years, have never seen it either. I've never seen anything like the flooding we've had over the last month or so." (photos)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Russia’s COLDEST WINTER SINCE 1938 - Russia is enduring its harshest winter in over 70 years, with temperatures plunging as low as -50 degrees Celsius. Dozens of people have already died, and almost 150 have been hospitalized, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees lower than the seasonal norm all over Russia.
The Emergency Ministry has issued warnings in 15 regions, which have been put on high alert over possible disruptions of communication and power. In southeastern Russia’s Samara, the cold has broken down many heat pipelines, leaving hundreds of homes without heating, including an orphanage and a rest house. Many schools and kindergartens have been closed for almost a week. Across the country, heat pipelines have broken down due to the cold.
The cold spell, along with snowfalls, has disrupted flights all over the country, and led to huge traffic jams. In the southern city of Rostov-on-Don some highways were closed due to snowfalls over the past two days, triggering a traffic collapse. Over the weekend, meteorologists predict temperatures will plunge even lower in the Moscow region, hitting -25. The Russian capital is also expected to be swept with snow. Temperatures have been 7 degrees lower than the norm for five days already, which is considered an anomaly, according to the Meteonovosti.ru website. The cold spell in the Moscow region is expected to continue for at least three more days. Due to the high humidity, these freezing temperatures will feel even colder than they actually are, meteorologists explained.

SPACE WEATHER -

Deadly Asteroid will not collide with Earth in 2040 - an asteroid about 140 meters long, or 460 feet, will not be on a collision course with Earth after all. Scientists say that if the asteroid, known as 2011 AG5, would have collided with our planet, it would have released an energy equaling that of 100 megatons of energy - a few thousands times more powerful than the atomic bombs dropped in Japan in 1945.
"An analysis of the new data conducted by NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, shows that the risk of collision in 2040 has been eliminated," NASA said Friday. According to those results, scientists say the asteroid will miss the Earth by a mark of about 890,000 kilometers, or 553,000 miles.
Because the asteroid was so close to the sun, astronomers could only observe the massive space rock when it was dark -- which led to only a 30-minute window for astronomers to observe the asteroid before it got too bright. "The second effect is the turbulence of the atmosphere makes things fainter. We had to keep trying over and over until we got one of those nights when the atmosphere was calm."

Friday, December 21, 2012

The projected end of the world has come around with surprising regularity throughout history. Each time a group of believers has been left bewildered at the absence of all-consuming death and devastation. If they've taking the warnings seriously enough, they will have sold their homes, abandoned earthly civilisation's material trappings and braced themselves for the arrival of a new era.
The latest date to herald widespread alarm is today, 21 December, which marks the conclusion of the 5,125-year "Long Count" Mayan calendar. The 2012 phenomenon is essentially an accounting problem; a misinterpretation of some very ancient book keeping. It is based on the Maya calendar, which counts the days since a date in the mythical past. This count reset after the last creation (on or about 11 August, 3114BC).
Around the world, precautions are being taken. Panic-buying of candles has been reported in China's Sichuan province. Survival pods have built in Hebei province, China. In Russia, where sales of tinned goods and matches have surged, the Prime Minister has urged his countryfolk to remain calm. Authorities in the French Pyrenees are preparing for an influx of believers to the mountain Pic de Bugarach, where rumours have spread that UFOs will rescue human gatherers.
If precedent is any guide, however, 21 December is likely to prove an anti-climax. Since the dawn of civilisation, humans have often been gripped by certainty that the world was about to end. The Romans panicked at predictions their city would be destroyed in 634 BC. Millennial fears gripped Europe ahead of the year 1000 AD. During the English Civil War, groups like the Fifth Monarchists believed the end was nigh.
More recent apocalypses have panned out in much the same way. Followers of Nostradamus braced themselves for the arrival of the "King of Terror" in "1999 and seven months". US television evangelist Pat Robertson forecast that "something like" a nuclear attack would occur in late 2007. The California radio preacher Harold Camping set a date for the end of the world no fewer than six times, settling on 22 October 2011 - a day which, historians may recall, was distinguished by an absence of fire and brimstone.
For those who paid heed to their dire warnings, learning that life will in fact carry on as normal might be expected to be a deeply traumatic experience. Surprisingly, however, groups which predict the end of the world have quite a good record of carrying on after the world is supposed to have ended. "The vast majority seem to shrug off the failure of prophecy fairly well." Indeed, many have gone on to flourish. The most crucial trait necessary to keep a group together after a failed apocalypse - a strong sense of community. "If the group itself has been pretty cohesive, it's been free of schism and dissent, they can get through." Also important, is the presence of a decisive leadership who can offer a swift explanation. "If rationalisation comes quickly, the group can withstand ridicule from outside."
The appeal of leaders preaching the impending apocalypse down the ages has always been about far more than the specifics of their prophecies. "It's a kind of rejection of the order of the world as it is. It's to do with imagining something far better. After it becomes apparent that the new order isn't going to come, there are ways of adjusting the message." For true believers, the saga is only just beginning when the clock hands reach 12.

**Do not wait for the last judgment. It comes every day.**
Albert Camus

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.1 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

Yesterday -
12/21/12 -
5.6 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 TONGA

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Russian volcano eruption to continue for two weeks - The Plosky Tolbachik volcano is in an ongoing eruption with consistent intensity. The eruption in Russia's far eastern Kamchatka peninsula will continue for at least two more weeks, a leading scientist said.

Risk of volcanic eruption in Turkey - There is a risk of volcanic eruption in Turkish province of Mugla close to Marmaris, CNN Turk TV channel said on Thursday. This was stated by 12 scientists after carrying out research in the coastal Mediterranean area for several months. They found that there is a risk of an underwater volcano eruption as a result of numerous earthquakes in the area. A crater was also found at a depth of 25 metres under water.
Turkey is located in a seismically active zone. The most powerful vibrations of the earth's crust in this country occurred in the Marmara Sea in 1999. The magnitude of the tremors was 7.4. About 18,000 people were killed in the earthquake.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No tropical storms.

In the South Indian Ocean -
Tropical Cyclone Evan was located approximately 115 nm northwest of of Pago Pago, American Samoa.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Snowstorm leaves four dead as winter hits US - At least four people have died as the first major snowstorm of the season crosses the US Midwest. Two people died in a car crash in Wisconsin, one was killed in a 25-vehicle crash in Iowa, and a woman died in Utah after becoming stuck in snow.
Blizzard conditions and as much as 1ft (30cm) of snow are expected from Kansas to Wisconsin, with the Rocky Mountains already blanketed. Officials said the storm could bring temperatures below -17C (0F). The severe weather could disrupt pre-Christmas travel, they have also warned.
Nearly 1ft of snow fell in Des Moines, Iowa, and winds as high as 53mph (85 km/h) were recorded in the south-western part of the state. In Utah, rescuers found a woman dead after she tried to walk to find help after her car became stuck in snow. In Wisconsin on Wednesday, a man lost control of his car and he and his passenger became trapped in the vehicle, killing them both. The National Weather Service warned those in the path of the storm to stay off roads because of poor visibility.
Chicago's busy O'Hare airport reported more than 90 flight cancellations. Flights into Chicago were being delayed at their place of departure. Some flights were being delayed by more than two hours. Interstate 29 in Missouri was shut down on early Thursday and Interstate 80 in Nebraska remained closed due to blowing snow. On the southern edge of the storm system, high winds have damaged homes and downed trees in Arkansas and Alabama. Tornado warnings remained for parts of Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama on Thursday.

HEALTH THREATS -

Attack rate in fungal meningitis outbreak estimated at 4.4% - Researchers estimate from preliminary data that 4.4% of patients who were exposed to contaminated steroid drugs from a Massachusetts compounding pharmacy contracted fungal meningitis or other fungal infections.

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Mayan apocalypse: End of the world, or a new beginning? One in 10 of us is said to be anxious that 21 December marks the end of the world. Recent hurricanes, unrest in the Middle East, solar flares, mystery planets about to collide with us - all are supposed to be "proof" of what the ancient Mayans knew would come to pass on 21 December 2012.
The "Long Count" cycle of the Mayan calendar began in 3114 BCE and is widely accepted to end on 21/12/12. Except that in the view of the curator of the University of Pennsylvania Museum, Philadelphia's "Maya 2012" exhibition, everyone has got it wrong. He says the Mayan calendar is complex, and best thought of as a series of gear wheels. At a Mayan site in Palenque, Mexico, there is an inscription describing an event that takes place in 4,722 of our era, "and that is the turning of an even bigger cycle."
Technically this is also not the start of a new cycle. In 3114 BCE the calendar reset to zero with the turning of the 13th bak'tun (which is a smaller, 400 year cycle). This time, however, it does not reset to zero but merely goes on to the 14th bak'tun. "The Mayan Calendar is a weird and wonderful thing."
"It is quite clear that the Mayan system envisages a new cycle of the calendar beginning on the 22 December 2012." Catastrophic events are seen by some as necessary in some way to a new cycle, a new birth. In these visions, the world has been and will be destroyed - to some degree - and we start anew. The date, 21 December, also marks the Winter Solstice, symbolic in many cultures of the end of darkness and the renewal of the light.

**Where there is no hope, it is incumbent on us to invent it.**
Albert Camus

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
None 5.0 or larger.

Yesterday -
12/19/12 -
5.7 NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN
5.0 TONGA
5.0 TONGA
5.0 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
Another cluster of small quakes in DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Ecuador - The Tungurahua volcano in central Ecuador keeps spewing gas, ash and red-hot rock, forcing hundreds to evacuate from their homes. The country's Geophysical Institute says incandescent rock shot from the crater of the volcano. It remains in in eruption with pyroclastic flows extending 3 to 4 km down one drainage on the volcano.
Surrounding villages report frequent ashfall and loud roars eminating from the mountain. Volcano monitors say Tungurahua shot lava 1km above its crater overnight Tuesday and blasted hot rock and gas nearly 3km down its flank. Residents living near Ecuador's Tungurahua volcano have been advised to voluntarily evacuate after an increase in activity created at least three moderate explosions and ash fall on nearby villages.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the South Indian Ocean -
Tropical Cyclone Evan was located approximately 400 nm south of Nadi, Fiji. The final warning has been issued on this system by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration.

Remains of cyclone to affect North Island, New Zealand - The remains of tropical cyclone Evan are forecast to "throw a spanner in the works" over Manawatu on Christmas Day, latest forecasts suggest.
Tropical Cyclone Evan is increasingly likely to pass close to northern New Zealand. Evan wreaked havoc in Samoa and Fiji, and MetService is predicting heavy rain for the north of the North Island on Sunday, but it also said Evan's track remained very uncertain beyond Friday. "On Sunday, there is an almost equal chance of it either swinging away from the North Island, into the north Tasman Sea, or heading towards East Cape. It is looking increasingly likely that Evan will pass very close to northern parts of New Zealand."
As Evan drew closer to the country over the next couple of days, MetService would expect to be able to say more. "It is a very long time since there's been so much uncertainty over the track of a low through the New Zealand area." Evan would bring a large amount of tropical air into the New Zealand region, which meant the potential for heavy rainfall in places with strong onshore winds. "A small change in the expected track of Evan could result in a large change in the weekend's forecast for just about any North Island place."
Irrespective of Evan's path through the New Zealand area, Christmas Day was likely to be warm, and probably not windy, in most places. While most of the South Island should have a dry day, the situation was less clear further north.

Philippines - Pagasa warns of tropical cyclone on Christmas Day. The weather bureau warned yesterday that a tropical cyclone is likely to hit the same areas affected by super typhoon “Pablo” in the Visayas and Mindanao on Christmas Day. They expect the formation of a tropical cyclone off the Pacific Ocean in the next five days.
There is a possibility that the weather disturbance will hit the Visayas and Mindanao, the areas devastated by Pablo early this month. Pablo – the strongest cyclone to hit the country so far this year – left over 1,000 dead and thousands of families homeless. “It is expected to approach or cross the Visayas and Mindanao area on Christmas Day." The weather bureau also advised fishermen in Luzon and Eastern Visayas not to go out into the sea due to big waves generated by the northeast monsoon. “Fishing boats and other small seacraft are advised not to venture out into the sea while larger sea vessels are alerted against big waves."
The senior weather specialist of PAGASA advised people to stay indoors if the storm hits the country on Christmas Day. “It is most likely to be just a tropical storm." The weather bureau is still monitoring the progress of the storm. The potential storm is also likely to pass Cagayan de Oro City.

HEALTH THREATS -

RECALLS & ALERTS

-True Taste, LLC of Kenosha, WI, is recalling its vacuum packaged Hot Smoked Rainbow Trout, Hot Smoked Whitefish, Hot Smoked Herring, Hot Smoked Mackerel, Hot Smoked Salmon Steak, Cold Smoked Mackerel, and Cold Smoked Whitefish because they have the potential to be contaminated with Clostridium botulinum.
-Matrixx Initiatives is voluntarily recalling 1 lot of Zicam® Extreme Congestion Relief nasal gel. The company is taking this step after finding a small amount of Burkholderia cepacia in a single sample of the product taken from the affected lot.

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

**There are causes worth dying for,
but none worth killing for.**
Albert Camus

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
None 5.0 or larger.

Yesterday -
12/18/12 -
5.1 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR

12/19/12 -
6.1 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.7 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.8 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.6 KURIL ISLANDS

Major home insurance providers stop offering earthquake protection in British Columbia, Canada - In early 2013, both Economical Insurance and Family Insurance Solutions will stop offering earthquake insurance to home insurance customers living in Metro Vancouver and southern Vancouver Island.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Ecuador declares orange alert - the second-highest alert level - near Tungurahua volcano - Volcano threatens local villages. People living on the slopes of the Tungurahua volcano in Ecuador are being evacuated as a plume of gas and ash rises from its crater. Tungurahua volcano began to erupt again last week, prompting the government to issue an orange alert.
Monday at 05h20 (local time) there was an explosion that generated emission column height of 2 km, followed by three blasts, at 05h48, 05h53 and 06h02 (local time), generating a column that reached 7 km above the crater of the volcano. Tungurahua was in full eruption, complete with locally heavy ashfall and pyroclastic flows which, combined with rainfall, generate a potential lahar hazard in drainages surrounding the volcano. Greater activity has been building since Wednesday, along with a slight increase in gas emissions from the volcano located about 135km south of the capital Quito.

Indonesian volcano spews ash, lava - 800 eruptions in 6 months. Mount Lokon, which has erupted 800 times since July, spewed hot lava and volcanic ash as high as 10,000 feet on Monday.

Russian volcano eruption attracts tourists, sparks 'apocalypse' fears - An erupting volcano in Russia's Far East has become a sightseeing hotspot for crowds of thrill-seeking tourists eager to see flows of lava and clouds of ash. Others, however, saw in the natural phenomenon an omen heralding the end of the world. Plosky Tolbachik on Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula, dormant since its most notable recent eruption in 1975, is spilling up to 1,200 metric tons of lava every second – a record amount – and spewing clouds of ash nearly 3,000 meters into the air, local seismologists estimated. The tourists – who ignore warning signs and the dangers of leaking lava, hot falling rocks and clouds of ash – pay top prices and take a 10-hour car ride to see the volcano. The trip reportedly costs 20,000 rubles (about $650) for locals and close to $1000 for Moscow tourists, nearly equal to the average monthly wage in the capital.
Some tourists approach the flows of lava close enough to risk melting their boots. Fossilized lava looks just like stone, but its internal temperature can reach up to 300 degrees Celsius. Though the volcano is 10 kilometers away from the tourist spot, the heat still reaches the area – visitors could easily wear summer clothes.
Some did not appreciate the eruption, seeing it as an ill omen for the end of the world. There have been media reports suggesting that various apocalypses will begin with the eruption of different volcanoes around the world, including those on Kamchatka. Scientists have rejected such prognoses, saying that rumors about the huge volumes of lave and possibilities that it can annihilate mankind are exaggerated. "Typical, predictable and nowadays sufficiently studied activity of the most active volcanoes in Kamchatka – Shiveluch, Kluchevsky, Bezymyanny and others – does not exceed in their activity the peak of activity recorded in the past."
Plosky Tolbachik has been erupting since November 27, sparking a forest fire and destroying buildings at two research bases located close to the mountain. Local residents have been warned not to leave their houses. In total, the volcano has erupted 10 times since records began in 1740, most dramatically in 1975 when the volume of lava and ashes became the largest in the recorded history of Kamchatka. (photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the South Indian Ocean -
Tropical Cyclone Evan was located approximately 275 nm south of Nadi, Fiji.

Cyclone Evan leaves trail of damage over Fiji - Tropical Cyclone Evan has left a trail of destruction across Fiji after battering the island for more than 12 hours, destroying homes, flooding rivers and stranding thousands of tourists. There were no reported deaths. Cyclone Evan on Monday ripped roofs from homes and churches, flooded roads and forced thousands to evacuate their homes. Strong seas near the capital, Suva, pulled two container ships onto a reef. Authorities say they hope to refloat them. Evan was Fiji's strongest cyclone on record. The South Pacific storm was equivalent to a category 4 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere.

Cyclone survivor spent two nights at sea - A Samoan fisherman believed drowned with his mates has washed ashore alive, after two nights clinging to a bit of driftwood. But he watched his own father drown and the crews of three other boats all sucked under by a whirlpool.