Friday, October 8, 2010

UN condemned over 'appalling' Haiti earthquake camps - A report titled 'Haiti: Still Trapped in the Emergency Phase' says camps for displaced Haitians are squalid and close to anarchy. UN agencies in charge of the refugee camps for victims of Haiti's earthquake are inexperienced, understaffed and dysfunctional. More than a million people were left homeless by the quake.
The most striking thing about this report from an independent aid agency is its utter condemnation of the management of the crisis by the United Nations.The people of Haiti are "still living in a state of emergency, with a humanitarian response that appears paralysed". "Living in squalid, overcrowded camps for a prolonged period has led to aggravated levels of violence and appalling standards of living. Despite these alarming conditions, the UN co-ordination system in Haiti is not prioritising activities to protect people's rights." UN police officers don't patrol the camps consistently and, almost incredibly, the few UN patrols there are do not have translators, so they cannot communicate with camp residents. Many of the camps have no police presence at all.
A UN spokeswoman said that the organisation was doing its best, but that the scale of the disaster made their job very difficult. The UN says the camps are relatively peaceful places, and that they have doubled the numbers of police since September. She said many of the problems Haiti faces - including high rates of sexual violence - had plagued the Caribbean nation before the quake, and had little connection to the refugee camps.
Refugees International says there should be much more involvement in managing the camps by local Haitian civil society groups who understand the situation - but the report points out that none of the UN meetings about camp management is held in the local language, Creole.
Former US President Bill Clinton, who has been visiting a camp, has vowed that US aid long promised to Haiti but yet to materialise will soon be released. Mr Clinton's foundation pledged $500,000 (£313,000) to help the camp. The former US president spoke of his frustration about the slow arrival of funding - with the US still to deliver on ANY of the $1.15 billion of aid promised at a donors' conference in March. The former president said that the money was being held up by a "rather bizarre system of rules" in the US Senate.

Weather report:
A man and his wife were sound asleep when the phone rang.
The husband picked up the phone and said, "Hello?.....
How the heck do I know?"
He slammed the phone down and exclaimed,
"That was some idiot who thinks I'm a weatherman.
He wanted to know if the coast was clear."


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
6.3 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.3 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
6.1 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
6.4 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

Yesterday -
10/7/10 -
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 SOUTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA
5.0 TAJIKISTAN

VOLCANOES -

Scientists have discovered the explanation for why the world's explosive volcanoes are confined to bands only a few tens of kilometres wide, such as those along the Pacific 'Ring of Fire'. Most of the molten rock that comes out of these volcanoes is rich in water, but the team has shown that the volcanoes are aligned above narrow regions in the mantle where the mantle melts in the absence of water. Melt rising from this region blazes a trail for more water-rich magma to follow all the way to the surface where it erupts to form volcanoes.
"It has been recognised for almost 50 years that the volcanic arcs form where one oceanic plate sinks beneath another, but while many models of this process have been put forward, none has been able to explain the location, and narrowness, of the volcanic arcs." The eruptions of volcanoes in the Ring of Fire are extremely violent because the molten rock contains a high proportion of water which, as superheated gas, provides the power for the explosive eruptions. This water is liberated from the plates descending beneath the volcanoes and lowers the melting point of rocks in the mantle. These volcanic chains have been responsible for the most devastating eruptions in history, such as that of Krakatoa in 1883, and the huge eruption of Toba about 74,000 years ago, whose aftermath may have come close to extinguishing the human race.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm OTTO was 338 nmi N of San Juan, Puerto Rico

CARIBBEAN - Heavy rain forced government offices, businesses and schools to close early Thursday afternoon as the tail end of now tropical storm Otto continue to drench St. Kitts and Nevis. The sun shone for the first time in three days Thursday morning, but this was short-lived as the new delugue by mid-day caused several ghuts around the island to run heavy. It also hampering another day of efforts to clean up the silt and debris deposited around the islands overnight and Thursday morning. One major road into downtown Basseterre remained closed as heavy swells continue to eat away at the retaining wall on the Irish Town Bay Road. There is also a report of downed electrical poles and lines in a new housing development in Old Road, six miles west of the capital.

HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

U.S. - Arizona was hit by a RARE SWARM of tornados on Wednesday with four twisters ripping through parts of the state causing considerable damage. Arizona experienced its usual ANNUAL quota of tornados in a single day. The region usually experiences only four tornados during the entire year but an extraordinary 22 extreme weather warnings were issued Wednesday. There have been no reports of any casualties as a result of the FREAK weather but numerous homes and vehicles were destroyed. Several train carriages were also derailed as a result of the tornado. The extreme weather system was the result of a low-pressure system which had been parked over central and southern California. Meteorologists described the weather in Arizona as 'EXCEPTIONAL' with the storm system now moving northwards. Earlier in the week the weather system moved across the west of the U.S. dropping a RECORD amount of rain in northern Nevada. (photos)

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Everyone who's been noticing that the sun seemed brighter over the past 6 years, was right. - A new look at the sun's connection to Earth's climate has returned some surprising results. A study found that during the most recent lull in the sun's weather cycle, the amount of energy that reached Earth increased, instead of decreasing as predicted. The planet may have experienced a slight warming effect as well, researchers said.
The study used satellite measurements taken from 2004 to 2007, the declining phase of the latest 11-year solar weather cycle. As the sun becomes less active, it typically releases less energy in the form of radiation. Previously, this was understood as a decrease in the total amount of radiation that reaches the top of the Earth's atmosphere. In examining solar emissions during this declining phase, however, the researchers found that a large decrease in ultraviolet radiation was roughly compensated for by an INCREASE in visible radiation. "Visible radiation is the only kind that, in any substantial quality, gets to the Earth's surface and heats the lower atmosphere. We found that as the sun's activity declined from 2004 to 2007, more of this radiation was entering into the lower atmosphere."
Ultraviolet radiation is largely absorbed in the stratosphere, where it combines with ozone molecules to form what is known as stratospheric ozone. As stratospheric ozone depletes, more UV radiation is able to pass through to the Earth's surface. Visible radiation, on the other hand, more readily penetrates into the Earth's lower atmosphere. So, if more visible radiation reaches the Earth's surface, the heating of our planet's lower atmosphere results in a warming of the climate. "In just over three years of observation, we conclude that the visible radiation was going to be warming the planet as the solar activity declined."
An extremely long stretch of low solar activity in recent years has baffled scientists, and the expected minimum of solar activity between 2008 and 2009 was unusually quiet. The ebb and flow of the sun's magnetic activity, and the amount of energy it puts out, make up the solar cycle. Typically, a cycle lasts about 11 years, taking roughly 5.5 years to move from a solar minimum to a solar maximum. The total energy that reaches Earth from the sun varies by only 0.1 percent across the solar cycle, and atmospheric physicists and meteorologists have struggled to link such a small variation to the ups and downs of Earth's natural weather and climate patterns. "In the past, it was thought that the changes were too small to do anything. People knew there was a UV component that was heating the stratosphere, but it was thought to be unimportant to the climate."
The findings of this new study, however, could be a step toward piecing together the puzzle."The sun has been behaving VERY STRANGELY over the past few years. We need to know more about how strange it is before we extrapolate the findings to other periods of time. But it does suggest that our previous understanding of how the sun affects the Earth's climate may be in need of revision." Now that the sun has presumably awoken from its solar minimum, scientists are keen to observe the star as it ramps up its activity. "It'll be very interesting. If the visible radiation starts to decline as solar activity goes up, that would be very, very interesting."
"It's quite clear that we have to understand what the sun does to our climate and how much more or less solar activity affects the atmosphere. We need to work out the solar component of climate change. This is not at all to suggest that the sun is causing climate change, but I do think we need to accurately know what the sun is doing, so that we can better assess the human component."

HEALTH THREATS -

H1N1 flu may have diverted attention from other disease threats - The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control says the number of new (emerging) threats reported in 2009 was down 28% from the previous year. It attributed the decrease to the H1N1 pandemic diverting attention and reporting away from other new threats. 192 threats were monitored in 2009, 174 (91%) of them new. Events are considered public health threats if they meet predetermined criteria; threats are documented and monitored through a dedicated database called the Threat Tracking Tool. In contrast to the decrease in new threats reported, the number of messages posted in 2009 through the ECDC's Early Warning and Response System increased fivefold compared with the previous 2 years, with 88% of them relating to influenza. Threats of note other than flu in 2009 included Salmonella, verotoxin-producing Escherichia coli, mumps, measles, legionellosis, West Nile virus, Q fever, and malaria. Foodborne and waterborne threats were at an all-time low, perhaps due to decreased reporting from health departments busy with the flu or possibly to increased hand washing. [same link for article below]

Dengue in India at 20-year high - India, currently hosting the Commonwealth Games in New Delhi, is experiencing a 20-year high in cases of dengue fever, with at least 50 people dead and 12,000 cases reported. WHO officials warn that 2.5 billion people worldwide are at risk for the mosquito-borne disease, 70% of them in Asia. They attribute the rising number of cases across Asia to higher temperatures, a growing population, and more international travel. Countries with the highest incidence so far this year are Indonesia with more than 80,000 cases, Thailand with about 58,000, and Sri Lanka with more than 27,000. The prevalence in the Indian population grew from 3.4% in 2006 to 9.1% in 2009. An Indian official blamed late preparation for the Commonwealth Games, which left puddles and rubble ripe for mosquito breeding, for some of the increase in cases there.

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Half a dozen nations could be affected if poisonous mud enters the Danube River - The European Union says flooding in Hungary that has killed four people and injured more than 100 others could affect half a dozen nations as poisonous mud threatens to enter the Danube River, one of Europe's main waterways. The flooding began on Monday when a dam holding back toxic waste at a metals plant burst in the town Ajka, about 160 kilometers southwest of Budapest. More than one million cubic meters of toxic mud have engulfed the Hungarian village of Kolontar and other areas.Residents of Kolontar say their village has been killed by the toxic waste. Agricultural lands in the region may have been ruined for generations to come. Investigators say they have found some radioactive materials in the sludge. Rescue teams continue to search for the missing. But while these workers wear full protective gear with masks and respirators, residents searched for their possessions with little more than rubber gloves for protection. The sludge is so corrosive that it has burned people as it seeped through their clothing.
The company responsible for the accident says there were no signs of an impending disaster and that up to 98 percent of the waste held behind the burst dam remains in the reservoir. But Hungary's State Secretary for Environment says he is not convinced. If the waste reaches the Danube River, Croatia, Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine and Moldova might be threatened with volatile heavy metals.

**Don't dance on a volcano.**
French Proverb


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 TAJIKISTAN

Yesterday -
10/6/10 -
5.5 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G
5.6 TONGA
5.2 PAKISTAN

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm OTTO was 315 nmi NNE of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. [ALTHOUGH OTTO STILL LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY, IT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY GAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.]

Otto - Early in the afternoon on Wednesday, a subtropical depression that had been lurking to the east of the Caribbean developed into a subtropical storm now dubbed Otto. Otto makes the 15th named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Otto is a little different than its predecessors so far this season in that it is actually a subtropical storm. Subtropical cyclones differ from tropical cyclones because they have broad wind patterns and their maximum sustained winds are located farther from the center of the system than tropical cyclones. Subtropical storms also usually have colder temperatures in upper levels of the atmosphere than tropical cyclones (which have very warm cores). Finally, sea surface temperatures required for the formation of sub-tropical storms are about 5 degrees Fahrenheit (2.8 degrees Celsius) cooler than needed for a tropical cyclone to develop.
Otto had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 kph), and could strengthen further over the next 48 hours. The National Hurricane Center predicts that Otto could become a tropical storm and then a hurricane by Thursday night or Friday morning. Heavy rains might fall on the Leeward islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
The 2010 hurricane season was predicted to be a busier-than-average one, with 17 named storms, 10 of which were expected to become hurricanes. So far there have been six hurricanes this season. An average hurricane season, in comparison, has 11 tropical storms with six of them becoming hurricanes. Hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends on Nov. 30 each year. The busiest part of the season is typically late August through early October, when ocean waters are at their warmest, providing the fuel that drives these ferocious storms. (satellite photo)

HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

INDONESIA - The death toll from flash floods in a remote region of eastern Indonesia has climbed to at least 97 with dozens of people still missing.

SPACE WEATHER -

On Tuesday, Oct. 5th, the interplanetary magnetic field near Earth tipped south and temporarily punctured our planet's magnetosphere. Solar wind poured in and fueled a display of auroras over Greenland. Another display could be in the offing. A minor solar wind stream is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field on or about Oct. 9th, possibly sparking geomagnetic activity. (photo)

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

**Could America declare war on Iceland for harboring
"weapons of ash eruption?**


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
10/5/10 -
5.2 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.3 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.4 FIJI REGION
5.0 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

NEW ZEALAND - Aftershocks adding to main quake damage. Exactly four weeks after a 7.1 magnitude quake caused widespread damage - and just as residents were starting to breathe a little easier - Canterbury was hit on Monday night by two frightening aftershocks within eight minutes. One was recorded at magnitude 5.
A West Melton winemakergot through the main quake with little damage other than a few smashed bottles of wine. But when the aftershocks hit on Monday - centred not far from his property - it was a different story. A concrete outer wall of his home partially collapsed inwards, cracks opened up in a stone pillar inside his home, dropping chips on to the floor, and a large storage tank in his nearby winery fell down on to a grape press with a "crash, bang"...One or two of my neighbours thought it was only just a notch less than what we had experienced before [in the main quake]." The September 4 main quake caused at least $4 billion of damage to homes, businesses and infrastructure and has led to 86,000 claims to the Earthquake Commission. About 70,000 of these have come from Christchurch.

VOLCANOES -

COLUMBIA - For the first time since Nevado del Ruiz erupted in 1985 and killed 25 000 people, it has become active again. Five o'clock Sunday morning earthquakes was recorded deep inside the crater. There have also been reports of sulphur odour in the air and a white gas column of about 700 meters high. The volcano has been under a yellow alert for the past several years and the experts have called for calm until they have determined if the alert is to be changed. Nevado del Ruiz is covered by an ice cap. (map)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression 14W was 248 nmi E of Hanoi, Vietnam

Tropical Depression 14W (Northwest Pacific Ocean) - The AIRS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite revealed a concentrated area of thunderstorms and strong convection around TD14W's center (directly over Hainan Island, China) in the eastern quadrant of the storm. Cloud top temperatures were as cold as -60 Fahrenheit. Convection in the east is a result of westerly wind shear blowing the convection and thunderstorms away from the storm's center. Infrared imagery also indicated that those storms are weakening, because the cloud tops are now warming from previous imagery. Very cold thunderstorm cloud tops (colder than -60 Fahrenheit) indicate strong thunderstorms, very high into the troposphere, that likely have heavy rain associated with them. When AIRS detects that cloud top temperatures have warmed, it means the heights of the thunderstorms has dropped, meaning there's not as much power or uplift in the convection. When a storm doesn't stack up, and when part of the storm is displaced from the rest of it, it loses its organization and punch. That's what wind shear does, and is doing to TD14W and that wind shear is blowing at about 28 mph. Its winds were creating 9-foot high seas. It is expected to make a turn to the north-northeast, make a brief landfall in the mainland of southern China. Once there, it is forecast to move east, then east-southeast, making a half-circle and head toward the eastern end of Hainan Island and dissipate. The northwestern Pacific Ocean is just as active as the Atlantic Ocean this hurricane season.

An area of low pressure about 150 miles north of Puerto Rico became better defined on Tuesday and could become a tropical depression over the next 24 hours or so. The disturbance was slowly drifting to the northwest. Forecasters said it could also become a subtropical depression. Nearly all of the computer models forecast the disturbance to strengthen into Otto soon, as water temperatures are still over 80 degrees along its track. An upper-level low sitting to its west has been helping to add some dry air and wind shear into the mix, so rapid development has not been the case thus far. Westerly winds are forecast to continue to spill off of the eastern U.S., keeping the disturbance out to sea, but heavy rain and flooding have already been affecting the Leeward and Virgin Islands. An additional 3 to 6 inches of rain is likely across Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic before the storm moves away Friday.

HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

VIETNAM - The death toll from floods that devastated central Vietnam over recent days has reached at least 26. In Ha Tinh alone, the heavy rains and rising waters have inundated at least 8,400 hectares of crops while damaging nearly 27,000 houses. Hundreds of military personnel have been mobilised to help evacuate residents threatened by the floodwaters. Several trains between Hanoi and the southern economic hub of Ho Chi Minh City have been interrupted as rail tracks are under water. Key roads were also damaged. Thousands of cars and trucks were stuck on the main national Highway 1 which has been damaged. Vietnam regularly suffers from tropical storms and flooding at this time of year.

ITALY - Three people have been found dead following heavy flooding in Prato in Tuscany. As much as 30 cm of rain fell in two hours causing widespread havoc. It is believed the victims are Chinese immigrant workers who were found submerged in their car. Floods are also being reported in the Liguria region where many rivers have burst their banks. Genoa airport was closed as result of the extreme weather. Downpours were expected to continue for at least the next 24 hours with forecasters predicting than the rains will ease by today.

INDONESIA - Extreme weather conditions, which might last until February, have prompted the government to heighten anticipation measures in several sectors as well as in regions across the archipelago. On Monday, ministers gathered in Jakarta for a coordinating meeting to anticipate extreme weather and climate. Extreme weather includes tornadoes, high waves and more frequent heavy rains that lead to more flood. “More specific data is needed, the data from each regency namely. For instance, when will the rain in regency A begin." The information will help to take adaptive measures, such as the right time to plant, because extreme weather until February might lead to food vulnerability. “Anticipative actions are also needed in terms of adaptation, especially in the transportation sector,” with warnings about possible floods and high waves in several regions. The government will gather governors and regency heads this month to inform the latter of specific conditions that might occur in their regions. Almost all regions in the country are prone to the predicted extreme weather. “The forms of the extreme weather might be, for example, early wet seasons and more flooded areas.”
“Global warming will eventually influence the expansion of the air above us. Thus the space for clouds and winds to form gets bigger. Therefore, rain will be more frequent, change of wind will be faster, and the circulation becomes larger due to vertical heating." According to data, the dry seasons between 2001 and 2010 were longer and occurred earlier compared to those between 1971 to 2000, thus the change has already occurred and adaptation is needed. Several areas, such as South Jakarta and the western part of East Java, might start their wet seasons as early as September, while other areas, such as Pasuruan in East Java, might enter the season in December. Waves as high as 3 to 5 meters might occur in several waters. Several areas in Sulawesi are predicted to have a high risk of flooding while areas in East Kalimantan have a medium flooding risk.

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

**No matter how rich you become, how famous or powerful,
when you die the size of your funeral will still pretty much depend on the weather."
Michael Pritchard


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.1 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.4 FIJI REGION
5.0 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU

Yesterday -
10/4/10 -
5.1 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
6.4 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISL., JAPAN
5.1 CUBA REGION
5.1 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.5 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES

Experts say there has been an spike in the number of earthquakes in New Hampshire and Massachusetts in recent years, and the potential is there for a far more serious one. Last weekend's 3.1-magnitude quake was the strongest in Massachusetts or New Hampshire in more than three years. "When you get to magnitude 3, we're talking about a once-or-twice-a-year earthquake for New England itself. We had a 3.2 off the shore of Maine earlier this summer. And then a magnitude 5.0 centered north of Ottawa in Quebec province (in June) that was felt over pretty much all of New England."
This area isn't exactly seen as a hotbed of tectonic activity, but it has seen its share of earthquakes over the years. Since 2007, there have been 48 earthquakes centered in New Hampshire and Massachusetts. In the past year alone, there have been nine, ranging in magnitude from 1.1 to 3.1. And that doesn't even include earthquakes in Canada or elsewhere that were also felt there. "During the mid 2000s, there was kind of a lull in earthquake activity - not so many, and not so many 2.5 or above as we had seen in earlier years. We've seen a slight increase in that in the last three years or so."
There have also been some more serious earthquakes in New Hampshire and Massachusetts, causing some very real damage, though most of them happened many years ago. In 1982, there was a 4.7-magnitude earthquake just north of where Saturday's quake occurred, triggering a fire that caused a building to burn down, and some minor cracks in some buildings. That quake was felt quite strongly throughout the greater Boston area. The largest quake to strike New Hampshire — actually two quakes within four days of each other — was a magnitude 5.5 near Ossipee Lake in 1940. Chimneys were thrown down, some walls cracked, plaster fell, and a few pipes were broken. The largest earthquake in New England's history was a magnitude 6.2 quake that struck off the coast of Massachusetts' Cape Ann in 1755. It was felt from Nova Scotia to South Carolina, and caused much chimney damage but no building collapses. In 1727, an earthquake described as "tremendous" in one report and "violent" in another caused some damage at Newbury. The shock was felt from the Kennebec River to the Delaware River and from ships at sea. Strong aftershocks were reported from the area through February 1728.
New England isn't located on a major fault line, like the San Andreas in California. So what is causing all of these earthquakes? Massachusetts and New Hampshire are located in the middle of the North American tectonic plate. One boundary is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. The other is on the West Coast. "The plate is slowly spreading toward the Pacific Ocean. That catches the middle of the plate in a very slow squeezing, much the way a vice would squeeze a brick. Rock can't squeeze forever without having little cracks and breaks. Those little breaks are what we sometimes feel as earthquakes in our region." There are actually more quakes here than if you go toward the Midwest or Canada, because at one time the edge of North America was a plate boundary. Many of the old faults are still preserved in the rock, and that causes them to crack more than in other parts of the country.
"The other possibility is that the Ice Age only ended 15,000 years ago. That sounds like a long time to us, but geologically it's not. That ice, being a mile or more thick, weighed a lot, and pushed the brittle crust into the putty, plastic like mantle. Since the ice is gone, it's been coming back up. It could have been that, and that also would be the most pronounced along weak zones."
Just because New England isn't located on a fault line doesn't mean there couldn't be a more serious, destructive earthquake here. "Unquestionably there is the potential for a damaging earthquake in our region."
In fact, the current pattern is how it usually goes, right up until a serious earthquake hits. "Every place in the world where we study earthquakes where we see regional small activity, occasionally there are larger and even damaging earthquakes. The difficulty is we can't predict it. If we had a damaging earthquake tomorrow, it wouldn't surprise me. If we had none for 100 years, it wouldn't surprise me either." Still, most experts agree that the chances of a major earthquake striking this area anytime in the near future are not great.

TROPICAL STORMS -
-Tropical depression 14W was 142 nmi NNE of Da Nang, Vietnam

The National Water Commission in Jamaica says less than 10 per cent of its water supply systems are still out of operation in the aftermath of Tropical Storm Nicole. The commission says its engineers, technicians and other field personnel are continuing to return more and more of its 460 water supply and 68 wastewater systems to full operation. However, repair teams are also finding more incidents of significant damage to the Commission’s infrastructure across the country. In addition, the NWC is faced with problems of flooding in some parishes such as St Elizabeth.
While the NWC is working to correct the remaining problems on its network, in some cases it could take weeks and even months to complete the repairs. In the meantime, the commission says it’s using alternative means such as trucking to supply customers with water.

HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

INDONESIA - Days of torrential rain triggered landslides and flash floods in eastern Indonesia, killing at least 26 people and destroying hundreds of homes.

Monday, October 4, 2010


A high-risk energy boom sweeps across North America
- Energy companies are rushing to develop unconventional sources of oil and gas trapped in carbon-rich shales and sands throughout the western United States and Canada. So far, government officials have shown little concern for the environmental consequences of this new fossil fuel development boom. At a time when the country should be embracing a renewable energy revolution, it is hurtling in the opposite direction, developing on a massive scale sources of energy that cause considerably more environmental harm than conventional oil and gas drilling.
A 2,500-mile route, from Grays Harbor in Washington State east across the top of the country to Detroit, has quickly become an essential supply line for the energy industry. With astonishing speed, U.S. oil companies, Canadian pipeline builders, and investors from all over the globe are spending huge sums in a race to open the next era of hydrocarbon development. As domestic U.S. pools of conventional oil and gas dwindle, energy companies are increasingly turning to “unconventional” fossil fuel reserves contained in the carbon rich-sands and deep shales of Canada, the Great Plains, and the Rocky Mountain West.
Even as one of the largest energy booms in history has erupted along a great arc of the continent, the consequences are prompting civic discontent, lawsuits, and political battles in state capitals. The boom is producing fresh scars on the land and new threats to scarce water supplies. Government studies show that exploiting unconventional fossil-fuel reserves generates as much as three times as many greenhouse gases per barrel than drilling for conventional oil and gas and uses three to five times more water. “It’s a pact with the devil."
In communities from Wyoming to Texas, thousands of trucks now rumble down rural roads, carrying the huge amounts of water — 2 million to 4 million gallons PER WELL — needed to free oil and natural gas from shales by blasting them with high-pressure fluids. In places such as North Dakota, which receives modest amounts of rainfall, local residents and conservationists worry that the energy boom will deplete aquifers. North Dakota has become the fourth-largest oil-producing state in the country, with an estimated 100 million barrels being pulled out of deep shales this year and 1,000 wells drilled in 2010.
One of the flashpoints is occurring in northern Idaho and eastern Montana, where oil companies want to use Highway 12 to dispatch the largest convoy of oversized trucks ever assembled to Alberta’s tar sands and elsewhere. The trucks, nearly as long as football fields and so wide they cover both lanes of the highway, haul refining and processing equipment that weighs hundreds of tons and is as tall as a mansion. Energy companies are now spending tens of millions of dollars to lease mineral rights in Wyoming and Colorado and are drilling exploratory wells .In all, the oil industry is spending nearly $100 billion annually in the U.S. to perpetuate the fossil fuel era. "It just almost boggles the mind."

**If your heart is a volcano, how shall you expect flowers to bloom?**
Kahlil Gibran


LARGEST QUAKES -
5.1 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
6.4 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISL., JAPAN
5.1 CUBA REGION
5.1 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.5 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES

Yesterday -
10/3/10 -
5.1 SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.0 CRETE, GREECE
5.2 BANDA SEA
5.0 VANUATU
5.1 NEAR WEST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

JAPAN - A magnitude 6.3 earthquake struck Japan in the evening near the southwestern Ryukyu Islands. The Japan Meteorological Agency issued a tsunami advisory for the Miyakojima and Yaeyama areas. A tsunami of 0.5 meters (1.6 feet) was expected. The earthquake occurred at 10:28 p.m. local time (9:28 a.m. EDT) at the shallow depth of 22.3 miles. The epicenter of the quake was about 70 miles east of Ishigaki-jima, a city in the Ryukyu Islands and 200 miles southwest of Naha, Okinawa.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

AUSTRALIA - The weather bureau fears a cyclone will form off the Queensland coast by Christmas. The outlook shows a distinct La Nina weather pattern, which is expected to lead to an increase in cyclone activity in the Coral Sea. Up to six cyclones could form off Queensland in coming months. "We are expecting ... the potential cyclone season to start early.
Normally we only VERY RARELY get cyclones forming in December or even November, but there is every chance of an increased risk this year that we will see a tropical cyclone before about Christmas." At least one severe cyclone is also tipped to cross the Queensland coast. "I guess historically we've seen ... on average about three to four cyclones in a season and I guess averaging below one coastal crossing per year. Historically, with a similar ocean patterns we've had three similar years and all of those have seen either six or seven cyclones either in the Coral Sea and at least one severe coastal crossing."

SPACE WEATHER -

The icy nucleus of comet 103P/Hartley 2 measures no more than a couple of kilometers across. That tiny nugget, however, is surrounded by an vast atmosphere of gas more than 150,000 km in diameter -- about the same size as the planet Jupiter. And it's coming our way. At present, the comet is best seen through telescopes. The view will improve, perhaps even to naked-eye visibility, as the comet glides by Earth only 11 million miles away on Oct. 20th.
Two weeks after Comet Hartley has its close encounter with Earth, NASA will have a close encounter with the comet. The Deep Impact/EPOXI spacecraft is hurtling toward Comet Hartley now, and on Nov. 4th it will fly 435 miles from the comet's active icy nucleus. The encounter will mark only the fifth time in history that a spacecraft has been close enough to image a comet's core. Until then, amateur astronomers can monitor the comet as it glides through the constellation Cassiopeia in the evening sky. (photo)

Sunday, October 3, 2010

INDONESIA - 21 volcanoes across the country are ready to erupt. Twenty-one volcanoes across Indonesia could erupt at any time, leading to natural disasters, officials have warned. An official from the Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation Agency on Friday said that the alert for 18 volcanoes had been raised from Level 1, or “normal,” to Level 2, or “beware.” Three other volcanoes were on Level 3, or “standby,” just one step below full alert, or Level 4.
One of those three is Mount Sinabung in Karo district, North Sumatra, which began erupting on Aug. 29 after lying dormant for 400 years. Its last major eruption, on Sept. 7, spewed volcanic ash more than 5,000 meters into the atmosphere. “We downgraded Sinabung from Level 4 to Level 3 on September 23. However, we still urge the public to remain alert for any danger.” Most of the villagers who were evacuated after the initial eruption have since been allowed to return to their homes.
The two other volcanoes on Level 3 alert are Mount Karangetang on Siau Island in North Sulawesi and Mount Ibu on Halmahera Island in North Maluku. Karangetang is considered the most active volcano in the archipelago, with 41 major eruptions since 1675. Its last eruption, on Aug. 6, is believed to have killed four people. Ibu, meanwhile, has experienced ongoing eruptions since April 5, 2008, feeding a lava flow down one side of the mountain.
The 18 volcanoes on Level 2 alert include Papandayan in West Java, Slamet in Yogyakarta, Merapi in Central Java and Semeru and Bromo in East Java. Other volcanoes on Level 2 alert include Talang in West Sumatra, Kaba in Bengkulu, Kerinci in Jambi and Anak Krakatau in the Sunda Strait, between Sumatra and Java.
In the east of the country, the Level 2 volcanoes are Batur in Bali, Sangeang Api and Rinjani in West Nusa Tenggara, Egon and Rokatenda in East Nusa Tenggara, Soputan and Lokon in North Sulawesi, and Dukono and Gamalama in North Maluku. All 21 volcanoes highlighted have erupted sometime this year, and are among 59 active volcanoes across the country.

**Waiter, there's volcanic ash in my soup.
Yes, sir - that makes it a 'no-fly' zone.**


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.1 NEAR WEST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

Yesterday -
10/2/10 -
5.4 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.4 BANDA SEA
5.0 VANUATU

10/1/10 -
5.5 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
5.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 BANDA SEA
5.1 VANUATU
5.2 TONGA

NEBRASKA - Last Sunday's earthquake in Dawson County is causing the Natural Resources District some concern. Experts worry the quake may have caused damage to area dams. The 3.0 earthquake happened just ten miles from about seven NRD dams. In a situation where there's a possibility that a dam may be cracked, the NRD says they'll take no chances. They'll be inspecting the dams in the next few days and will take precautionary measures from there. Experts explain that broken dam would cause a lot of damage. "Heavy rains we had in the northeast part of the state earlier this year washed out some dams and caused a lot of trouble. A lot of grief, a lot of damage. And we wouldn't want that to happen, especially from an earthquake."

VOLCANOES -

The Indonesian government must build a seismic monitoring system to anticipate future geological disasters, a group of visiting Russian scientists said. The group was in Sidoarjo, East Java, this week to study the mud volcano that began erupting there over four years ago. The volcano has been spewing thousands of cubic meters of hot mud and gas every day from a crack that appeared near a gas drilling well operated by Lapindo Brantas in May 2006, swamping much of Porong subdistrict in Sidoarjo. A recent study by the same group of Russian scientists concluded that the eruption was “inevitable,” given the high tectonic volatility in the area, and warned of similar incidents in the future. The group also called for more seismic monitoring stations to be built to help predict future disasters.
The study, based on 3D modeling of the site, said the mud began spewing as a result of two earthquakes that occurred prior to th e disaster. The first quake — a magnitude-4.4 event in Sidoarjo on July 9, 2005 — created a fault. The second — a magnitude-6.3 quake in Yogyakarta on May 27, 2006, several hundred kilometers to the west — opened up the fault and allowed the mud to spew. “Those earthquakes that occurred before [the mud volcano erupted] were the geological incidents that helped the flow [reach] the surface. In addition, the [constant] movement of the Watukosek fault also speeded up the process. Eventually, the [Yogyakarta] earthquake that happened two days [before the mudflow] became the last ‘kickoff’” to push the mud to the surface. According to them, the disaster was natural and “impossible to stop.”
However, the finding has been challenged by a geological expert from Britain who said the conclusion that the mudflow was entirely natural “goes against all modern scientific thinking” and was not supported by data from the earthquakes and the gas well. “The [Yogyakarta] earthquake was too small and too far away, and we have very strong data showing that [the mudflow] was caused by an underground blowout at the Banjar Panji-1 well." A research team which included scientists from Britain, United States and Australia, had also concluded that mud volcano eruptions could have been avoided if the blowout in 2006 had been prevented.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

Remnants of tropical storm Nicole walloped U.S. East Coast with huge rainfall - Tropical storm Nicole and her aftermath dumped jaw-dropping quantities of rain on the East Coast, including 10 inches in 24 hours in parts of Pennsylvania. Wilmington, North Carolina was worst-hit, with 22.5 inches in five days.
Homeowners from North Carolina to Vermont will spend the weekend cleaning up. The heavy rain began even before Nicole swept inland from the Atlantic. “Some places have seen three months of rain in one day. In North Carolina it’s more like five or six months worth of rain in the past five days.”
The deluge has led to major flooding in such places. At least eight fatalities, all traffic-related, are attributed to the storm waters. Seven of the deaths were in North Carolina, where officials are asking residents to remain off the local roads. At the peak of the flooding on Thursday, the state had closed 150 roads. FEMA, at the request of state governors, has sent liaison officers to Maryland, Delaware, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and New Hampshire.

Friday, October 1, 2010

There aren’t any volcanoes in upstate New York. But within the next decade, a 700-acre field station at the University at Buffalo could become one of the only facilities worldwide where researchers can study volcanic properties on their own terms. There will be infrastructure there that supports a variety of experiments. Anybody in the world who wants to take advantage of that to do a specific experiment could do that. "We’ll be doing a series of controlled explosions at different depths and looking at the effects of single explosions versus multiple explosions. Some of the more complicated things we’re interested in, but will take a longer time, include pyroclastic flows. We’re starting off with an emphasis on volcanoes because there’s a major gap there experimentally. That includes processes like mud flows and avalanches because those also occur in volcanoes. In the long term, we want this facility to be useful for a broader range of geological hazards....This field area is 700 acres...dedicated to large-scale experiments on topics related to extreme events.

**Time to make the donuts.**
Fred the Dunkin' Donut baker


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.5 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

Yesterday -
9/30/10 -
5.5 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.6 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.6 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.5 KEPULAUAN KAI, INDONESIA
5.0 AMAZONAS, BRAZIL
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.3 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.6 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.6 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.3 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

VOLCANOES -

SOUTH KOREA - The Ministry of Strategy and Finance on Wednesday warned of damage a volcanic eruption of Mt. Baekdu on the Chinese-North Korean border could mean to South Korea's economy. "If a volcanic eruption occurs on Mt. Baekdu in the winter, northerly or northwesterly winds could carry volcanic ashes to the country."
The prevailing winds at Mt. Baekdu are westerly, leading to forecasts of negligible damage to the South from volcanic ashes, but the wind sometimes changes in winter. If volcanic ashes were to travel over to the Korean Peninsula in the winter and disrupt air traffic for 10 days, South Korea's exports would drop by US$2.5 billion, while tourism and other service sector business and agricultural output would face huge setbacks. If the volcanic ashes deflect sunlight, the ensuing cold temperatures could adversely affect crops. (photo)

PHILIPPINES - State seismologists have noted increased volcanic tremors around Taal Volcano in Batangas and Mayon Volcano in Albay province, but maintained that alert level 1 remains over both volcanoes Thursday. Phivolcs has recorded 10 volcanic quakes around Taal and four tremors around Mayon in the last 24 hours. Phivolcs noted an increase in seismic activity around Taal this month, but maintained this is not enough to raise the alert level there. "At present, no imminent eruption is indicated although the public is advised to observe some safety precautions." From September 1 to 27, a total of 274 volcanic earthquakes, or an average of 10 events per day, were recorded.
Last Monday, a quake at Taal was felt at Intensity III in Barangays Calauit, Tuoran and Pira-piraso, north and northeast of the Volcano Island and was accompanied by rumbling sounds. Another event was also felt at Intensity I at Calauit at 9:16 p.m. last Sunday. Three unfelt volcanic earthquakes were recorded at 11:08 a.m. and 5:05 p.m. Monday, and 3:21 a.m. Tuesday. But field surveys at the Main Crater and at the 1965-1977 New Eruption site indicated no anomalous observations in the thermal and surface manifestations of both areas.
Phivolcs lowered the alert level at Taal to "1" last August 2, after noting lower levels of volcanic activity there.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.
-A large and complex area of disturbed weather associated with two tropical waves extends from the Lesser Antilles eastward into the Atlantic for several hundred miles. 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

CANADA - A swath of southern Quebec is expected to be hit by heavy rain and high winds tonight as the remnants of tropical storm Nicole pushes wet weather into the region. Environment Canada warned that between 50 and 80 mm of rain are expected to land in Montreal and as far east as Rimouski by Thursday evening. The most intense downpour is expected to stretch from Montérégie to the lower St. Lawrence.
Drummondville and Quebec City are also expected to get soaked, as the low pressure cell created by tropical storm Nicole pushes a band of heavy rain northward on its slow move across Virginia. The area is already seeing the first of the downpour. Portions of northwestern New Brunswick were also expected to see heavy rain Thursday evening. Portions of eastern Ontario are expected to get wet, with as much as 80 mm of rain in store for the Cornwall area.
Gale winds were expected along the coastline and flood warnings had been issued from North Carolina to eastern New York. In South Carolina, dozens of families were forced from their homes by high water levels. Flights were also delayed or cancelled along the Eastern Seaboard. "It's this giant bead of moisture hooking up with a front draped across the east coast, which is basically just dumping rain over a very, very large area." (map)

U.S. - A MASSIVE rainstorm drenched the US east coast from the Carolinas to Maine Thursday, causing at least five deaths, flooding roads and washing away months of dry weather. The worst of the rain fell in North Carolina, where Jacksonville picked up 300mm - nearly A QUARTER OF ITS TYPICAL ANNUAL RAINFALL - in SIX HOURS. The rain was part of a system moving ahead of the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole, which dissipated over the Straits of Florida on Wednesday. Much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast were starting to move into a drought after the dry summer, and the autumn storm provided several inches of much-needed rain.

The death toll from Tropical Storm Nicole in Jamaica has risen to five following flash floods and mudslides triggered by the storm. At least seven others are missing, swept away by floodwaters. The latest victims include two men who died when a house in Kingston collapsed in a slide triggered by heavy rain on saturated ground. Nicole broke apart over the Atlantic late on Wednesday afternoon. But intermittent rains increased the risk of additional landslides across the island. Emergency workers were trying to locate at least seven missing people, most of whom were believed to have been washed away in slides that roared through Kingston shanty towns. Schools and universities stayed closed for a second day, while about 30% of those served by Jamaica's utility company were without power. (photo)

HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

MEXICO - The number of people killed in a series of mudslides in southern Mexico has climbed to 30, officials said overnight, as a punishing rainy season continued to sow misery in the region.

AUSTRALIA - Global warming has given Australia ITS WETTEST SEPTEMBER IN MORE THAN 100 YEARS, but "extreme dry years" lie ahead. September saw an average of 49mm of rain nationwide, the highest since 41mm in 1906 and almost three times above the long-term average of 17mm a year. There was some evidence that increased levels of greenhouse gases contributed to the increased rainfall. Prevailing westerly winds were shifting southward, bringing wetter conditions. "September is normally the driest on record. "We expect to see, with increased levels of greenhouse gases, a decline in rainfall in southwest WA and increased frequency of extreme dry years like the one we've just had." Exceptional rainfall in northern and central Australia, normally dry at this time of year, pushed the average rainfall higher. The record rainfalls arose partly from a strong seasonal La Nina (cooling) event in the region. It was the wettest September on record in the NT and Queensland, and the third wettest in South Australia and Western Australia. That was despite very dry conditions in the far southwest of Western Australia.
[see article below] South Australia has already exceeded its average annual rainfall, making 2010 its first above-normal year since 2003. Drought-stricken Victoria largely missed out on the September deluges, however, and in 2011 the State was likely to see a 14th straight year of below-average rainfall. Victoria recorded rainfall of 500mm in the first nine months of the year, representing just over 80 per cent of its normal annual amount. This was the state's wettest start to the year since 1996. But the rainfall for the year has not been extraordinary in a historic context, with the January-September total of 552mm ranking 28th highest in the 111 years of record. For southeast Australia as a whole, it has been the wettest first nine months of the year since 1996 and the 29th highest rainfall on record.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

AUSTRALIA - Residents of Perth and parts of Western Australia's southwest are allowed to use sprinklers only one day a week under a new State Government restriction. The tightening of sprinkler use follows Perth's SECOND DRIEST WINTER ON RECORD and a RECORD 18-DAY DRY SPELL in September. The long dry has left city supply dams at only 35.2 per cent full compared with 53.2 per cent full at the same time last year. The new roster will apply until November 30 and replaces the previous two-day-a-week roster. Bore owners are permitted to use their bores for three days a week and hand-watering of gardens and lawns is still allowed.
"I ask that everyone be sensible with their water use through the rest of spring and on into summer to help us manage our water supplies through a quite extraordinary time." The Perth region has experienced ITS LOWEST RUN-OFF INTO DAMS SINCE 1913. The new measures will help secure water supplies during a trying demand period leading up to the commissioning of a new desalination plant in the latter half of 2011.