Monday, October 18, 2010

**The victor does not believe in chance.**
Nietzsche

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
10/17/10 -
5.0 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.2 XIZANG-NEPAL BORDER REGION
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.1 CENTRAL PERU

TROPICAL STORMS -
Typhoon MEGI was 168 nmi ENE of Baguio City, Philippines

Typhoon Megi - Thousands of people in the Philippines have fled their homes as Super-Typhoon Megi has begun to lash the north with heavy rains and strong winds. Emergency services are on high alert and schools have been closed in many areas as Megi bring winds of up to more than 280km/h (175mph). It is the strongest storm the Philippines has faced in four years.
The northern provinces of Cagayan and Isabela are on the highest storm alert. Officials have warned that the heavy rain and high winds could damage buildings, power supplies and agriculture. Government forecasters say waves off the east coast could be greater than 14m (46ft). Trucks, rescue boats and food packs have been pre-positioned near vulnerable areas. "This is like preparing for war. We know the past lessons and we're aiming for zero casualties." Farmers were being urged to harvest as many of their crops as possible before the typhoon hit. The area in the storm's path is one of the country's main rice-growing regions. Megi is expected to weaken to typhoon intensity as it crosses the Cordillera mountain range. However, it will then re-emerge into the South China Sea and re-intensify as it heads for southern China.

SPACE WEATHER -

NASA scientists say 103P/Hartley 2 is ONE OF THE MOST ACTIVE COMETS THEY'VE SEEN, with a huge atmosphere and copious outgassing from jets in the nucleus. "The tail now appears to be forking. And with a coma wider than 1 degree, Comet Hartley is now as impressive as Comet Holmes was in 2007, albeit more diffuse." The next few nights are the best time to see green Comet 103P/Hartley 2 as it approaches Earth for an 11-million-mile close encounter on Oct. 20th. Set your alarm for the dark hours before dawn, go outside, and look straight up. it is easy to find with binoculars. (photo)

A surprise display of Northern Lights spread across Greenland and Canada on Oct. 17th. "There was only a 20% chance of geomagnetic activity in my area, but the auroras took off," reports a viewer just north of Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. The auroras were sparked by a fluctuation in the IMF: the interplanetary magnetic field tipped south, opening a hole in Earth's magnetosphere. Solar wind poured in and fueled the display. More auroras are possible on Oct. 19th and 20th when a solar wind stream is due to brush past Earth. (photo - same link as above)

NASA has announced that the coming year will be 'The Year of the Solar System'. "During YSS, we'll see triple the [usual] number of launches, flybys and orbital insertions. THERE HASN'T BEEN ANYTHING QUITE LIKE IT IN THE HISTORY OF THE SPACE AGE...These events will unfold over the next 23 months, the length of a year on the Red Planet [Mars]. History will remember the period Oct. 2010 through Aug. 2012 as a golden age of planetary exploration."
The action begins near the end of October 2010 with a visit to Comet Hartley 2. On Nov. 4th EPOXI will fly a mere 435 miles from Hartley's nucleus, mapping the surface and studying outbursts of gas at close-range. Later in November, NASA astrobiologists will launch O/OREOS, a shoebox-sized satellite designed to test the durability of life in space. The same rocket that delivers O/OREOS to space will carry an experimental solar sail. NanoSail-D will unfurl in Earth orbit and circle our planet for months. On December 7, 2010, Japan's Akatsuki (Venus Climate Orbiter) spacecraft grabs the spotlight when it enters orbit around Venus.
The action continues in 2011 as Stardust NExT encounters comet Tempel 1 (February 14), MESSENGER enters orbit around Mercury (March 18), and Dawn begins its approach to asteroid Vesta (May). Although Vesta is not classified as a planet, it is a full-fledged alien world that is expected to mesmerize researchers. Next comes the launch of the Juno spacecraft to Jupiter (August), the launch of GRAIL to map the gravitational field of the Moon (September), and the launch of a roving science lab named "Curiosity" to Mars (November). "The second half of 2011 will be as busy as some entire decades of the Space Age."
2012 opens with Mars rover Opportunity trundling toward the heart of Endeavour Crater, a city-sized impact basin almost two dozen miles from Opportunity's original landing site. Sometime in mid-2012, Opportunity will reach Endeavour's lip and look over the edge deeper into the heart of Mars than any previous robotic explorer. Meanwhile, halfway across the solar system, Dawn will fire up its ion engines and prepare to leave Vesta. For the first time in space history, a spacecraft orbiting one alien world will break orbit and take off for another. Dawn's next target is dwarf planet Ceres, nearly spherical, rich in water ice, and totally unexplored. The Year of the Solar System concludes in August 2012 when Curiosity lands on Mars. The roving nuclear-powered science lab will take off across the red sands sniffing the air for methane (a possible sign of life) and sampling rocks and soil for organic molecules. Curiosity's advanced sensors and unprecedented mobility are expected to open a new chapter in exploration of the Red Planet.

HEALTH THREATS -

Scientists suggest that cancer is purely man-made - Cancer is a modern, man-made disease caused by environmental factors such as pollution and diet, a study has strongly suggested. The disease rate has risen massively since the Industrial Revolution, in particular childhood cancer – proving that the rise is not simply due to people living longer. “In industrialised societies, cancer is second only to cardiovascular disease as a cause of death. But in ancient times, it was extremely rare. THERE IS NOTHING IN THE NATURAL ENIVRONMENT THAT CAN CAUSE CANCER. So it has to be a man-made disease, down to pollution and changes to our diet and lifestyle.”
“In an ancient society lacking surgical intervention, evidence of cancer should remain in all cases. The virtual absence of malignancies in mummies must be interpreted as indicating their rarity in antiquity, indicating that cancer causing factors are limited to societies affected by modern industrialization”. As the team moved through the ages, it was not until the 17th century that they found descriptions of operations for breast and other cancers and the first reports in scientific literature of distinctive tumours have only occurred in the past 200 years, such as cancer in chimney sweeps in 1775, nasal cancer in snuff users in 1761 and Hodgkin’s disease in 1832. “Yet again extensive ancient Egyptian data, along with other data from across the millennia, has given modern society a clear message – cancer is man-made and something that we can and should address.”

Deadly disease major threat to global public health - Dengue is a serious flu-like illness that is transmitted by mosquitoes, and can develop into dengue haemorrhagic fever, which can be fatal. The number of cases has more than doubled in the last decade. Dengue outbreaks are now a major threat to global public health. The UN health agency warned that unless countries act now then the situation will only get worse. Two-fifths of the world's population is at risk of the disease. Out of these 2.5 billion people, more than 70% live in Asia Pacific countries.

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Sorry, there was no update on Friday, 10/15.

**One of the great con tricks that life can pull
on the conventional and the obedient
is that rewards so often seem to go to those
who choose other paths than those which are laid down.**
Stephen Fry

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
10/16/10 -
5.4 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
6.4 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
6.4 TONGA
5.4 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION
5.9 TONGA
5.1 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

10/15/10 -
5.0 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.0 GUATEMALA
5.0 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

10/14/10 -
5.1 JAVA, INDONESIA
5.5 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.2 COMOROS REGION

ARKANSAS - 55 quakes this week. A 3.0 earthquake struck near Greenbrier (Faulkner County) Friday afternoon just hours after two tremors rumbled around Guy in the morning. The first of those quakes was initially measured at 4.4 but but has been downgraded to 3.8. The second came in at 2.4 on the Richter Scale. This makes 55 earthquakes in the area in the last week. Most of them have been centered closest to Guy. These are the latest tremors in what's being called an earthquake swarm to hit Faulkner County. Thursday, a 3.4 quake hit the Guy area, followed soon after by another that registered 1.9.

VOLCANOES -

The Piton de la Fournaise volcano on Reunion Island in the western Indian Ocean is erupting again. The volcano erupted Thursday evening after several days of increased seismic activity. The eruption is contained to one of the volcano's calderas, and the lava flow is stable, but public access to the volcano will be restricted. The volcano is about 30 miles southeast of the island's capital, Saint Denis. No one was reported to be in danger. T he last eruption happened over 10 days in January. More than 150 eruptions of the volcano have recorded since the 17th century. Reunion, a department of France, is home to about 784,000 people and lies more than 400 miles east of Madagascar. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Typhoon MEGI was 463 nmi S of Kadena AB, Okinawa

Much of Cuba's capital remained without power early Friday following a direct hit from Tropical Storm Paula, as cleanup crews carried away fallen trees and swept up chunks of concrete torn from the city's famed seawall. The once-Category 2 hurricane was downgraded to a tropical depression in the morning, with maximum sustained winds dropping to 25 mph (35 kph). State-run media carried no reports of major damage or injuries, and the island breathed a collective sigh of relief that the storm was not worse — and certainly nothing like the trio of powerful hurricanes that hit in 2008. "In my home, the winds were tremendous ... but nothing at all bad happened. We were expecting more."
Paula was expected to deliver an additional 1 to 2 inches (2.5 to 5 centimeters) of rain over central Cuba and the central Bahamas for the next day and a half, and up to an inch over parts of the Florida Keys. By the time the storm has left Cuba it will have dumped up to 10 inches (25 centimeters) of rain in some areas of the island, and possible flash floods and mudslides were still a threat. Paula dealt Havana a direct blow Thursday. Heavy rain poured down as dusk fell, and the sea, which had been as flat as a plate, quickly turned violent and frothy. In most of the city, gas and power was knocked out — or switched off, a normal precaution when winds are high. Waves crashed against the famed Malecon, or seawall, and some streets were inundated with a foot or two of water. The 2008 storms did an estimated $10 billion in damage — or a quarter of Cuba's total GDP — a terrible blow for a country already reeling from the global economic downturn, a drop in tourism and low prices for nickel and other raw materials. Paula brushed by Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula before arriving in Cuba, causing the only fatality associated with the storm so far.

MEGI has the makings of a “supertyphoon”. Megi barreled toward the Philippines Friday night, with officials comparing its fury with those of Tropical Storm “Ondoy” and Typhoon “Basyang.” It is the 10th weather disturbance to enter the country this year. Meg will be renamed “Juan” once it enters the country. It is expected to intensify as it nears land and “may attain a maximum wind (strength) of over 150 kilometers per hour before landfall." It is predicted to make landfall Monday afternoon in the Cagayan and Isabela area, although its effects will be felt by this afternoon.
Northern Luzon will bear Megi’s brunt, based on Pagasa models, while Metro Manila might be spared of the typhoon’s wrath. “If there is no change in the typhoon movement, NCR (National Capital Region) will not be directly hit...Considering that it has reached typhoon intensity before it enters PAR, it will intensify before landfall, maybe even stronger than 150 kph...If it is greater than 200 kph, it can be considered a supertyphoon.”
Ondoy packed maximum center winds of 105 kph when it swept across Metro Manila and Luzon in September 2009, causing the worst floods in the metropolis in four decades and killing 464 people. The deadliest typhoon to hit the country in recent years, Ondoy dumped 455 millimeters of rain in the Pagasa monitoring site in Quezon City in 24 hours on Sept. 26. Basyang, with sustained winds of 120 kph, pounded Luzon in July this year, killing more than 100 people.
Megi was packing maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center, with gustiness of up to 150 kph. It has a diameter of 300 km. Megi (or Juan) was expected to exit through Ilocos Sur. The strength of the new typhoon’s winds were comparable to that of Basyang, based on Friday’s satellite data. Officials have warned people not to travel in northern Luzon, especially in landslide-prone areas, starting this morning. The waters in eastern Luzon will become rough and dangerous to all kinds of vessels by then. Disaster councils of various coastal towns met on Friday to assess their evacuation plans and prepare quick reaction teams. Megi is the first major weather disturbance to confront the new Pagasa leadership since the President sacked the Pagasa administrator in August for being supposedly “way off the mark” in Pagasa’s forecast of the path of Basyang.
China is all geared up to battle the strongest tropical storm this year as ‘Megi’ intensified into a super typhoon today. Typhoon Megi is heading for Northern Luzon at a speed of 20 kilometres per hour after it turned into a super typhoon early today. It is expected to enter the South China Sea on Monday. The super typhoon could cause wild winds and huge waves in the South China Sea in the next three days. The NMC issued an orange alert, the second-highest-level alert, for strong winds at 10 am local time, warning vessels to take shelter in ports and urging local authorities to prepare for emergency. China suffered heavily this year due to floods and heavy rains in which over 2500 people were killed and several hundreds went missing.

HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

AUSTRALIA - Wild weather has caused havoc for thousands across Australia's eastern states, with floods forcing residents to flee and severe wind damage leaving swathes of homes without power.
The hammering inflicted on parts of Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria was in contrast to the picturesque scenes delivered to the nation's capital, where snowflakes momentarily drifted from the skies.
The snow didn't lie for long amid the deep and muddy puddles left after days of solid rain. Reports of snow also emerged from central NSW and at Victoria's Dandenong Ranges, Kinglake and Ballarat as the state shivered through its COLDEST OCTOBER LOW SINCE 1995. Overnight temperatures dropped to 4.7C (41F). Much of the state experienced a cold, wet and windy start to the weekend with widespread warnings of possible flooding and even the news that the rain has slowed down the pending locust invasion. In NSW, the downpour resulted in a natural disaster declaration for parts of the state's south, where hundreds of people were forced to evacuate their homes and major roads were cut off because of flooding. About 200 people were evacuated from the township of Tumbarumba after the nearby Mannus Dam failed overnight. Dozens of others were forced to leave their homes after properties were flooded in the towns of Lockhart, The Rock, Uranquinty, Walla Walla, Holbrook, Adelong and Tumut. Wild winds and rain also delivered a blow to Queensland's southeast corner, knocking out electricity supplies to nearly 50,000 homes and businesses. More than 30 people at Lake Manchester in Brisbane's outerwest have been cut off since Tuesday because of floodwaters. Minor flood warnings are current for the Barcoo, Condamine, Macintyre and Brisbane rivers. Since last Sunday, most of Queensland's southeast has seen falls of between 100mm and 300mm but the worst of the wet appears to be over.
- AUSTRALIA - Queensland's Premier has sought an urgent briefing with the state's top weather forecaster following the unseasonal deluge. The unseasonal heavy rain and forecasts of an above average cyclone season this summer prompted the premier to convene, FOR THE FIRST TIME, a weather briefing for all ministers. The weather bureau is warning increased cyclonic weather this summer could cause severe flooding on the back of RECORD RAINS this spring. Queensland is in a La Nina climate phase resulting in above average rainfall and enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the Coral Sea. "Historically we could expect an average of four cyclones a season in the Coral Sea, we now expect the number to be potentially higher. Under these conditions, we have a good chance of a cyclone crossing the coast before the year is out." Queenslanders are being urged to prepare early for cyclones and floods.

MEGA-LANDSLIDES - Rock avalanches and landslides have become more common in high mountain ranges over the last decade. The collapses are caused by melting glaciers and permafrost, which remove the glue that binds steep mountain slopes together. However, the worse part may be to come. Thinning glaciers on volcanoes could destabilize vast chunks of their summit cones, triggering mega-landslides capable of flattening cities such as Seattle and devastating local infrastructure. To assess the risk, an environmental consultancy studied a huge landslide that occurred 11,000 years ago on Planchón-Peteroa, Chile. "Around one-third of the volcanic cone collapsed." Ten billion cubic metres of rock crashed down the mountain and smothered 370 square kilometres of land, travelling 95 kilometres in total. Studies have suggested that intense rain cannot provide the lubrication needed for this to happen, so glacier melt must have been to blame. With global temperatures on a steady rise, history mayl repeat itself on volcanoes all over the world. Many volcanoes in temperate zones could be at risk. "There are far more human settlements and activities near the slopes of glaciated active volcanoes today than there were 10,000 years ago, so the effects could be catastrophic."

HEALTH THREATS -

Pictsweet vegetable recall - Packages containing frozen vegetables (carrots, peas and mixed vegetables) sold nationally by Wal-Mart and at Kroger stores in the Southeast may contain glass fragments. While there have been no reports of injuries, the Pictsweet Co. of Bells, Tennessee, is advising the public not to eat the recalled store-brand vegetables because of the potential for harm. Consumers should return them to the place of purchase for a full refund.

Thursday, October 14, 2010

**Think of your faults the first part of the night,
when you are awake,
and the faults of others in the latter part of the night,
when you are asleep.**
Chinese Proverb

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
10/13/10 -
None 5.0 or higher.

OKLAHOMA - ONE OF THE STRONGEST EARTHQUAKES ON RECORD IN OKLAHOMA rattled parts of five states Wednesday and left two people with minor injuries. The earthquake struck at 9:06 a.m. about six miles east of Norman in Cleveland County, sharply shaking portions of the Oklahoma City metropolitan area. The U.S. Geological Survey estimated the magnitude to be 4.3, but a research seismologist said the Oklahoma Geological Survey measured it at 5.1. The higher figure would make Wednesday's temblor the second-strongest here since records began. The quake was felt up to 170 miles away, at Bartlesville in northeastern Oklahoma and Wichita in southern Kansas. Reports also came in from Arkansas, Missouri and Texas. The Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management said it had received reports of minor damage, primarily to windows and due to items falling from shelves. Only minor damage had been reported through the city, mainly porches cracking or items falling off shelves. "The stuff on the wall shook. The dogs took off barking. I thought the world was coming to an end, to be honest."
A magnitude-5.5 earthquake struck El Reno, just west of Oklahoma City, in 1952, and another struck in northeastern Indian Territory in 1882. Quakes of 4.4 magnitude struck Hughes County in 1939 and Coal County in 1997.

VOLCANOES -

Mystery of Mount Etna - Until now there had been many explanations for Mount Etna and that of the surrounding volcanics, but none had been able to explain the timing, origin and dynamics of the activity. Results from fluid dynamic models provide an alternative explanation for the existence of Mount Etna, its geological environment and evolution, as well as volcanism in the surrounding region. This theory suggests that Mount Etna is not directly the result of tectonic plate boundary activity, but that it resulted from decompression melting of upper mantle material flowing around the nearby edge of the Ionian slab that is slowly sinking into the Earth's mantle.
"Most volcanism on Earth occurs at plate boundaries in places where tectonic plates move apart (e.g. Iceland) and in places where tectonic plates come together with one plate diving (subducting) below the other plate into the mantle (e.g. Pacific ring of fire). For the latter scenario, the volcanoes form directly above the subducted plate." However, some volcanism, appropriately named intraplate volcanism, occurs far from plate boundaries and its origin is more controversial. "The chemistry of the volcanic rocks from Mount Etna and the nearby Iblean volcanics in Sicily and in the surrounding seas indicate that they are intraplate volcanics. Interestingly, the volcanics are located within a few hundred kilometres of, but are laterally offset from, the Calabrian subduction zone plate boundary, where the African plate sinks below the Eurasian plate. This suggests that the volcanics are somehow related to the Calabrian subduction zone. New modelling of subduction and mantle flow confirms this, showing that backward sinking of the African plate at the Calabrian subduction zone induced flow around the southern edge of the subducted plate and upward below Sicily. The upward flow induced decompression melting of upper mantle material and these melts extruded at the surface in Sicily, forming Mount Etna and the Iblean volcanics." Mount Etna is one of the most active volcanoes in the world and is in an almost constant state of activity. The most recent ash explosion occurred in August of this year, producing an ash plume that rose 800 meters above the crater edge.

TROPICAL STORMS -
-Tropical storm MEGI was 315 nmi WSW of Agana, Guam

-Category 1 Hurricane PAULA was 88 nmi ENE of Cancun, Mexico. [PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY OVER CUBA AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.]

Paula weakens as it approaches Cuba - The hurricane is about 30 miles from Cuba. A weakened Hurricane Paula is threatening to spread heavy rain across the Caribbean island. The storm's top sustained winds have dropped to about 80 mph (130 kph). It was moving north-northeast at near 3 mph (6 kph). The storm is forecast to track along the spine of Cuba. Cuba has issued a tropical storm warning for the province and city of Havana, and Mexico canceled all warnings on the Yucatan. A hurricane warning was in effect for Cuba's westernmost province, Pinar del Rio. A tropical storm watch was issued for the Florida Keys, from Craig Key westward, including the Dry Tortugas. Paula tipped the scales into hurricane strength Tuesday and intensified quickly to a Category 2 storm when its sustained winds topped 95 mph.
The Hurricane Center has described Paula as small. Its hurricane-force winds extend outward only up to 10 miles (16 kilometers) from the center and tropical strength-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 kilometers). Paula is predicted to drop 3 to 6 inches of rain over parts of western and central Cuba, with maximum amounts of 10 inches in isolated areas. That could cause flash floods and mudslides. In addition, a storm surge is forecast to raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal levels along the coast of extreme western Cuba accompanied by "large and destructive waves."

PHILIPPINES - At least three potential cyclones, one of them still outside Philippine territory, are threatening the country, state weather forecasters said Wednesday. The other two are low-pressure areas (LPAs) inside Philippine territory. "Of the two LPAs in Philippine territory, the one east of Visayas has a larger chance of intensifying into a cyclone." It will be 24 hours until they can determine if the LPAs, particularly the one east of Visayas, will intensify into a cyclone. They are also monitoring a tropical depression still outside Philippine territory but moving westward toward the country. The first of the three potential cyclones to intensify or enter Philippine territory will be code-named "Juan".

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

**War will make a pacifist of any sane man.
War is the lowest form of humanity.
We’re all here. Let’s get on with it.**
Tony Bennett

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
10/12/10 -
6.0 NEAR S COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.9 TONGA
5.6 TONGA

VOLCANOES -

NEW ZEALAND - Auckland may be more vulnerable to ash-fall from volcanic eruptions than previously thought according to new research. The findings identified 29 previously unknown volcanic ash layers. On average, the Auckland has been impacted by ash-fall from local or distant eruptions once every 400 years for the past 80,000 years. The previous estimate was once every 750 years. The release of this new research has been made to coincide with the screening of a realistic TV3 docu-drama about an volcanic eruption in central Auckland. In 2008 TV3 aired a similar programme 'Aftershock' which created an uproar after viewers thought it was real.
The message of this show is to 'Be Prepared' - “Watch and enjoy Eruption as a drama. But also think about what it says about our preparedness for disasters." The Auckland Volcanic Field covers 360sq km and stretches from Manurewa in the south to Takapuna in the north. It has been active for at least 200,000 years and, based on similar fields in other parts of the world, researchers believe it may have a life expectancy in excess of 500,000 years. Volcanologists expect any future volcanic activity in Auckland will be preceded by a warning period of precursory earthquakes that may last for a few days to a few weeks.

TROPICAL STORMS -
-Tropical depression 15W was 266 nmi WSW of Agana, Guam

-Hurricane PAULA was 151 nmi SSE of Cancun, Mexico

Hurricane Paula gains strength as it heads to Mexican coast. Strong winds have already hit Mexico Hurricane Paula is gaining strength as it is heading towards Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The hurricane intensified to a category-two storm with winds of up to 160km/h (100 mph. It has brought strong winds and heavy rain to north-east Honduras and damaged homes in Honduras. The centre of the hurricane was expected to hit the Mexican coast early today. Heavy rainfall was also expected in Nicaragua and Belize.
As Paula approached, schools were closed along the eastern coast of Honduras. Officials said rain of up to 20cm (8 inches) of rain had fallen in part of the country. In the eastern region of Gracias de Dios, winds and rain had damaged 19 homes. Mexico and Central America have been hit by a series of floods and landslides in recent weeks, with thousands of people left homeless.

SPACE WEATHER -

Spaceweather.com items:
Asteroid 2010 TD54 flew past Earth Tuesday morning (Oct. 12) at 6:50 am EDT. It was only 46,000 km above the planet's surface. For comparison, geosynchronous satellites orbit at 36,000 km, so the asteroid was not far beyond Earth's satellite fleet.

The geomagnetic storm of Oct. 11th sparked bright auroras over both ends of Earth - north and south. "Lights were spilling out of the sky. It made the Southern Cross look like Niagra Falls." The display was triggered by a "south-pointing IMF" - the interplanetary magnetic field near Earth tilted south, opening a crack in Earth's magnetosphere. Solar wind poured in and fueled a G1-class geomagnetic storm. The storm is subsiding now.

An enormous magnetic filament is perched directly above sunspot 1112 near the sun's southeastern limb. If the filament collapses (as they often do) and hits the sunspot below, the resulting explosion could be impressive.
(photos)

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

**Money is a form of responsibility.
It’s like being incredibly good-looking:
you have to deal with it in a way that is not self-centred.**
Lou Paget

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.2 CELEBES SEA

Yesterday -
10/11/10 -
5.2 NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN

Nine Months After the Quake - a Million Haitians Slowly Dying - "If it gets any worse," said a homeless Haitian mother, "we're not going to survive." Around the back of the Haitian National Palace, a park is now home to 5,000 people displaced by the January 2010 earthquake. Sheets are tied to pieces of wood to keep out the sun. Plastic sheeting covers the ground. When it rains, everything they have is soaked. There is no electricity at all in the camps. Water is hard to find. There is no food. The children are terribly hungry. They beg every day for food. The food aid program was terminated in April and nothing took its place. The authorities cut off the food so people would leave the camps, but where is there to go? There are an estimated 1300 "camps" of homeless people in Haiti. Homeless people live literally everywhere. People are camped in the middle of many streets. Shanty structures are built right up to the edge of streets. Every park, every school yard, every parking lot appear to have people living under sheets or lean-to tents. Evictions are starting. Churches are pushing people off their property. Schools which are reopening are turning off the water to the people camped in the ball fields. Some in authority are openly saying that people must be forced out of the camps. But only 13,000 temporary structures have been built and they are far away from family, school, jobs and health care. There is no place to go.
Nine months after the quake, over a million people are still homeless in Haiti. Haiti looks like the quake could have been last month. The Associated Press reports only 2 percent of the rubble has been removed and only 13,000 temporary shelters have been constructed. Not a single cent of the US aid pledged for rebuilding has arrived in Haiti. In the last few days the US pledged it would put up 10 percent of the billion dollars in reconstruction aid promised. Only 15 percent of the aid pledged by countries and organizations around the world has reached the country so far. A million Haitians are slowly dying from starvation, illness, lack of security and neglect.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -

Earthquake experts see warning for California in new tsunami study on risk to Caribbean. Haiti and Jamaica are at greater risk for destructive tsunami than previously believed, according to a new study of tsunami generated during the catastrophic Haiti earthquake in January. The tudy raises troubling questions about the possibility of high death tolls should a large earthquake hit Jamaica, which could cause populated coastal areas to collapse into the Caribbean Sea, and trigger tsunami that would rebound back to shore.
The study was conducted to explain a mystery that popped up after the Haiti earthquake: Why were there so many reports of tsunami in a region that wasn't supposed to have many of them? Hornbach said scientists had long expected tsunami to occur from earthquakes generated from "subduction zones," in which one tectonic plate slides underneath the other. Such earthquakes push up the seafloor, moving water up, resulting in tsunami. But the fault that caused the Haiti earthquake was on a fault where one plate pushes past the other, and doesn't push up the seafloor. Scientists had long believed those faults don't often cause tsunami. But what was found during a visit to Haiti in February and March was that the Jan. 12 quake caused the collapse of both coastal land and underwater sediment. It is those landslides - both above and under water - that triggered tsunami that rebounded onto sparsely populated coastal areas of Haiti, killing at least three people and wiping out several homes. Such natively generated tsunami are particularly dangerous because damaging walls of water can begin rushing on land within a matter of minutes after a quake, before authorities can alert the public.
Californians need to learn from this also, and be better prepareo. After a quake, "if you live along the coastline, you want to be thinking about the potential tsunami hazard and get a couple hundred yards -- a couple football fields up -- just to make sure you’re not going to be in an area that's inundated." Even a 3-foot-high tsunami could bring in a wall of water coming in at 40 mph. "It's nothing to mess with. It's like being hit by a car." "The lesson here is, we really need to prepare for this. Even if they are rare events, they are high-impact events." (map)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm PAULA was 49 nmi NNW of Puerto Lempira, Honduras

Tropical Storm Paula, the 16th named storm of the busy 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, spun along Honduras' Caribbean coast on Monday and took aim at Mexico's Yucatan peninsula. Paula was expected to strengthen into a hurricane today. Weather forecasts showed it could hit Mexico's popular Caribbean resort of Cancun. Authorities in Honduras closed schools and warned of flooding in some villages as heavy rains reached the coast. The storm in the southwest Caribbean was carrying top winds of 70 miles per hour and moving northwestward at a speed of 10 miles per hour.
High winds knocked over trees and rain swept away several wooden houses in remote Honduran coastal towns. Small mudslides caused by the rain blocked some roads, but there were no reports of injuries or deaths.
Mexico's government issued a hurricane warning from Punta Gruesa to Cancun. A tropical storm warning was also in effect for the coast of Honduras along the border with Nicaragua. Paula is expected to bring heavy rains in eastern Honduras, parts of the Yucatan peninsula, and possibly in mountainous areas of Nicaragua and Honduras, threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

JAMAICA - The Meteorological Service extended the Flash Flood Warning for all parishes until 5:00 am Monday. An area of low pressure across the central Caribbean has been producing unstable weather across Jamaica and has the potential to develop into a tropical storm or tropical depression west of Jamaica by today. Satellite imagery and radar reports indicate that large areas of moderate to heavy showers with embedded thunderstorms continue to move northward across Jamaica. Rainfall amounts of up to 30 millimetres were recorded over some sections of the island. The forecast is for the low pressure system to remain west of the island, gradually drifting away.

HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Three days of incessant rains in Bangladesh have left at least 17 people dead and 41 fishermen missing across the southern coast, news reports said Saturday. Tens of thousands of people are stranded as waters triggered by a tidal surge have inundated thousands of homes in the low-lying coastal zone. Worst affected are southern coastal districts, and 15 deaths have occurred in the region. At least 41 fishermen, who went to the sea days ago, were missing Saturday. At least 10,000 islanders had taken refuge at cyclone shelters — raised concrete buildings - as the tidal surge from the Bay of Bengal inundated their homes. Bangladesh is a delta nation of 150 million people.

More than 1,000 villages flooded on China's Hainan island following THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOR DECADES. More than 210,000 people had been evacuated by late Thursday, with more downpours forecast for Friday. The torrential rains have been falling for more than a week and are the worst on the island off China's southeastern coast since 1961. One fisherman had been killed and three others were missing.
Hope fades for Vietnam's flood missing - Hope faded Thursday for people listed as missing after floods killed at least 49 in central Vietnam. "The rains have stopped falling and the water level has visibly lowered. But the possibility of finding the missing is reduced after several days of searching." Quang Binh was hardest-hit by the flooding sparked by heavy rain over recent days. The province recorded 33 dead and 13 missing. In Quang Tri, roads and agricultural land remained inundated. "This will certainly affect rice production for the winter-spring season." Landslides disrupted traffic flow in the province's Huong Hoa district. Quang Tri is already a poverty-stricken province where more than 80 percent of the land is affected by unexploded munitions from the Vietnam War.

HEALTH THREATS -

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-The Blue Buffalo Company, Ltd., is recalling certain packages of its Wilderness Chicken, Basics Salmon and Large Breed Adult Chicken dry DOG FOODS sold under thc "BLUE" brand which have the potential to contain excessive levels of Vitamin D.

Monday, October 11, 2010

**Decorate yourself from the inside out.**
Andrei Turnhollow

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
10/10/10 -
5.2 PAKISTAN
5.1 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.5 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.1 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGI

'Wall to wall' San Andreas quake overdue - Some U.S. seismologists are increasingly alarmed at the potential of an earthquake occurring along the entire length of California's San Andreas fault. The San Andreas has long been considered one of the most dangerous faults in the state; however recent research has some experts fearing a future major quake could occur along its entire 340-mile length. The quakes could include a devastating 8.1 shaker and could run "wall to wall" from Monterey to the Salton Sea near the Mexican border. A key section of the San Andreas northwest of Los Angeles is way overdue for a major quake. The last major quake in the section was in 1857 and was halted at the Cajon Pass north of Los Angeles, a fortunate occurrence that seismologists say can't be counted on in the future.

More than two dozen earthquakes have shaken north central Arkansas in the first eight days of October. All were minor but it begs the questions what's causing the tremors and could the next one be stronger? Almost all the quakes have been registered within a few miles of the small town of Guy. Nine earthquakes were reported in the city Thursday night. All of the earthquakes registered two point five or less on the Richter Scale which means they were relatively minor and did not cause any property damage.
This year there have been nearly 170 earthquakes in Arkansas - well above average. Some residents think that the natural gas drilling in the area is causing the increased quakes but the experts don't. The Arkansas Geological Survey says that theory has already been studied. "If you were to plot all the wells, there are over three thousand wells in the area, from White County to Conway County. These earthquakes just don't line-up. They're in small clusters." The geological survey is looking into the possibility that disposal wells which eject dirty water fifteen thousand feet under ground could be causing the spike. Increased earthquakes could lead to some more serious quakes but nothing that would devastate the area. It's not likely that any earthquake in Arkansas will hit five on the Richter Scale.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm OTTO was 668 nmi W of Lajes, Azores

HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

AUSTRALIA - Southeast Queensland awash with rain. Roads are cut and thousands lack power after up to 250mm of rain was dumped on southeast Queensland over the weekend. A severe weather warning issued at 5.15am (AEST) today warns of continued wild weather. Strong to gale force winds are expected to maintain very rough seas and large swells during the day, leading to dangerous beach and surf conditions. A flood warning is current for coastal streams from the Sunshine Coast to the NSW border. Brisbane received 85mm of rain since 9am yesterday. Many roads in Brisbane are under water. On the Gold Coast, Coolangatta received 120mm, while Nambour, in the Sunshine Coast hinterland north of Brisbane, received 112mm. Parts of the coastal regions have received 300mm to 400mm of rain since late last week. The UNSEASONAL heavy rain is expected to ease during the day.

Sunday, October 10, 2010

A SECOND flood of toxic sludge from a storage reservoir at a Hungarian aluminium processing plant is "likely" after new cracks appeared in a dyke. "The reservoir is so damaged that it is likely that it will give way for a second time. If the dyke of the reservoir gives way, about 500,000 cubic metres will be released. Several cracks are visible from the north side of the reservoir." The first flood on October 4 released 1.1 million cubic metres of foul-smelling red toxic sludge into villages and rivers, killng seven people and injuring scores.

**If you would one day renovate yourself, do so from day to day.
Let there be daily renovation.**
King T’ang

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.1 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGIO

Yesterday -
10/9/10 -
5.2 PERU-ECUADOR BORDER REGION
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 TAJIKISTAN
5.2 PAGAN REGION, N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.8 COSTA RICA

10/8/10 -
6.1 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.0 TOCANTINS-GOIAS BORDER REGION, BRAZIL
5.1 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
5.1 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.2 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.7 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
6.1 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
6.4 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm OTTO was 778 nmi ENE of Hamilton, Bermuda

Australian cyclone season could be the worst in 27 years - and the fall-out from cyclones may extend further south than normal. The Bureau of Meteorology has warned that a La Niña event in the tropical Pacific Ocean and high Southern Oscillation Index could result in the worst cyclone season for 27 years, and also a season starting up to two eeks earlier than normal. "The forecast number of tropical cyclones in the Australian region in the 2010-11 season is in the range 17-22, compared with 12 in an average year. The season we are drawing a parallel with is 1998-99 when Cyclone Thelma threatened Darwin in early December, but luckily didn’t hit the capital city." Cyclone Thelma was one of the most intense tropical cyclones (a Category 5) to be observed off the coast of Australia and the most intense cyclone to threaten Darwin since Cyclone Tracy in 1974.
"In the Northern Territory monsoonal activity normally starts around Christmas and the first cyclone not long afterwards, but this year you can expect it a couple of weeks earlier and that will go for the Indian Ocean as well."
Normally the cyclone season starts on November 1 and ends on April 30 and the cyclone belt runs from Shark Bay north and east in WA and from Brisbane north in Queensland, including all the coast of the Northern Territory. However, another downside of an La Niña event is that fall-out from cyclones can extend further south.
"While the damaging effects of tropical cyclones do not impact New South Wales very often, they are more likely to occur in La Niña summers." La Niña is the flipside to the well known drought-producing El Niño. In addition to causing higher sea temperatures and increasing the Southern Oscillation Index and risk of cyclone, La Nina events usually also bring wetter than average spring and summer conditions to much of eastern Australia. Sydney, for instance, can expect half the number of days above 35 degrees when compared to El Niño years like last year.

With the 2010 North Atlantic hurricane season winding down without a United States hurricane landfall, the Drudge Report posted a headline suggesting that the seasonal hurricane forecasters blew it. Indeed, he has written this headline for 4-years in a row now. While the number of storms has been accurately predicted by the soothsayer, the lack of impact upon the US mainland has left many wondering: is this it?
While the North Atlantic sees 10 storms per year, the annual global total is 80 to 90. So, how is the rest of the globe doing in terms of tropical cyclone activity? Absolutely cratering - and the Western North Pacific typhoon basin is at HISTORICAL LOWS. Indeed, with the Earth undergoing Global Climate Disruption, natural climate variability has played the ultimate trump card and left GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY AT 33-YEAR LOWS.
While the North Atlantic has seen 15 tropical storms / hurricanes of various intensity and duration, the Pacific basin as a whole is at historical lows. In the Western North Pacific stretching from Guam to Japan and the Philippines and China, the current ACE value of 48 is the LOWEST SEEN SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE IN 1945 and is 78% below normal. The next lowest was an ACE of 78 in 1998. The Northern Hemisphere overall (including the North Atlantic) has the lowest ACE since 1977, the year of the Great Climate Shift and flip in the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

UNPRECEDENTED challenges for U.S. states that depend on water from the Colorado River - The convergence in the coming year of three cyclical conditions affecting ocean temperatures and weather is likely to create unprecedented challenges for states that depend on water from the Colorado River, a new UCLA study suggests. "If I were concocting a recipe for a perfect drought, this would be it." The combination of La Nina with two less commonly known ocean conditions - the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation - tends to result in drought in the upper reaches of the Colorado River. The ocean conditions have been known to diminish precipitation in the Southwest but, examined separately, have proven to be poor indicators of drought conditions in the upper reaches of the river. "It's the combination that's key."
The convergence of these patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans may well drive water levels in the Lake Mead reservoir below a critical threshold and could potentially result in reduced water allocations for Arizona and Nevada. Essentially all of the Colorado River water used by Southern California passes through the reservoir, which is the largest in the nation. Fed primarily by snowpack melt from its upper reaches, the river is Southern California's chief source of water. "Declines in water availability of this magnitude during the coming winter could be devastating for states that depend on the Colorado River for their water."
During a La Nina episode, the sea-surface temperature across the Pacific Ocean at the equator plummets by as much 18 degrees Fahrenheit, resulting in drops in precipitation rates of as much as 50 percent across the southwestern and southeastern United States for between five and 18 months.
The PDO is a pattern of climate variability with longer-term shifts that last between 20 and 30 years and also affect weather. A negative PDO is characterized by cooler sea-surface temperatures off the Pacific Coast of North America that can result in below-average precipitation in the southwestern U.S. The effect can be thought of as an extended La Nina event.
Each phase of the AMO can last for more than 60 years and is characterized by temperature changes in the North Atlantic Ocean. In its positive phase, the AMO has little impact on California weather if it occurs in absence of a negative PDO. But the positive AMO has been linked to past occurrence of major droughts in the Midwest and the Southwest, including the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. "It's three different things working on different times scales. You may not get them to line up that frequently."
Researchers found a "striking and significant propensity" for droughts in northeastern Utah when cool sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific associated with La Nina and the negative phase of the PDO were coupled with warm temperatures in the North Atlantic linked to the positive phase of the AMO. During such episodes, snowpack declined on average between 9 percent and 10 percent, and river discharge decreased on average by 18 percent. The three conditions last converged at least five times between 1945 and 1965, a period that was characterized by generally depressed but variable flows in the river.
The findings are troublesome because not only are all three conditions predicted for 2010-11, but they are expected to be particularly strong. The coming year's La Nina and AMO are at this point supposed to be the STRONGEST IN 10 YEARS, and a strong negative PDO is also building. The convergence increases the likelihood that Lake Mead, already diminished by 11 years of drought, will fall below 1,075 feet above sea level - a threshold that can result in the reduction of water allocations in Nevada and Arizona. Under a series of agreements among seven U.S. states along the Colorado River and Mexico, California has first rights to the water, so it would not face the same restrictions. Water levels at Lake Mead currently stand just nine feet from the critical threshold, at 1,084 feet above sea level. "We're looking at a situation that could pit us against our neighbors. We've never had to face such a severe decline in Lake Mead and resulting reductions in Colorado River allocations before...That means these states might have to find many millions of gallons to make up what seem like relatively small-percentage reductions, and they have to do so at a time when they are already in a drought of considerable duration. That's going to be a real problem."

HEALTH THREATS -

Scientists Discover That Inflammation Helps To Heal Wounds - A new research study may change how sports injuries involving muscle tissue are treated, as well as how much patient monitoring is necessary when potent anti-inflammatory drugs are prescribed for a long time. That's because the study shows for the first time that inflammation actually helps to heal damaged muscle tissue, turning conventional wisdom on its head that inflammation must be largely controlled to encourage healing. These findings could lead to new therapies for acute muscle injuries caused by trauma, chemicals, infections, freeze damage, and exposure to medications which cause muscle damage as a side effect. In addition, these findings suggest that existing and future therapies used to combat inflammation should be closely examined to ensure that the benefits of inflammation are not eliminated.
The presence of inflammatory cells (macrophages) in acute muscle injury produce a high level of a growth factor called insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) which significantly increases the rate of muscle regeneration. The research report shows that muscle inflammatory cells produce the highest levels of IGF-1, which improves muscle injury repair. "For wounds to heal we need controlled inflammation, not too much, and not too little. It's been known for a long time that excess anti-inflammatory medication, such as cortisone, slows wound healing. This study goes a long way to telling us why: insulin-like growth factor and other materials released by inflammatory cells helps wound to heal."

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-Montalvan's Sales, Inc. of Ontario, CA has recalled "La Nuestra" brand frozen Mamey Ice Cream due to a potential health risk from Salmonella Typhi.
-D & M Smoked Fish, Inc. (DBA Haifa Smoked Fish) in Jamaica, NY is recalling specific lots of Haifa Smoked Fish brand products because they have the potential to be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes.
-Living Foods, Inc. of Ionia, Michigan is recalling bulk and retail-size packages of Alfalfa Sprouts, because it has the potential to be contaminated with Salmonella.