Monday, February 9, 2015

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster updates.

**Be kind to everyone and start with the person standing next to you.**
Mother Teresa


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.3 NORTH OF ASCENSION ISLAND

Yesterday, 2/8/15 -
5.2 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS

2/7/15 -
5.3 MOLUCCA SEA

2/6/15 -
5.3 NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA
5.2 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

2/5/15 -
5.3 SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
5.0 TACHIRA, VENEZUELA
5.7 SOUTH OF PANAMA
5.3 TACHIRA, VENEZUELA

VOLCANOES -
Guatemala's Fuego volcano calmed down Sunday after an eruption blanketed nearby towns in ash. Guatemala City's La Aurora airport remained closed due to ash that had fallen on the runway. Ash had stopped falling on the city, the volcano institute said, warning however that columns of soot could still drift back towards the city.
The Fuego volcano spewed large columns of ash on Saturday, prompting an orange alert and forcing nearby residents to wear protective masks. Officials issued a warning to the country's civil aviation agency, and flights were halted as a result. The nation's natural disaster agency, meanwhile, advised people to remain on alert in case the volcanic activity increases.
Located in southwestern Guatemala, Fuego is one of several active volcanoes in Guatemala. Periodic volcanic eruptions in Guatemala can reach over 5,000 feet (1,500) meters into the sky and cause frequent travel warnings. In 2012, several thousand people were evacuated from Fuego's slopes after a large eruption spewed thick ash into the atmosphere.

Tongan volcano created new island - A Tongan volcano has created a substantial new island since it began erupting in December, spewing out huge volumes of rock and dense ash that has killed nearby vegetation. The volcano, about 65 kilometres (40 miles) southwest of the South Pacific nation's capital Nuku'alofa, rumbled to life on December 20 for the first time in five years.
The volcano was erupting from two vents, one on the uninhabited island of Hunga Ha'apai and the other underwater about 100 metres offshore. Experts took a boat trip to view the eruption on Thursday and confirmed it had transformed the local landscape. "The new island is more than one kilometre wide, two kilometres long and about 100 metres high. During our observations the volcano was erupting about every five minutes to a height of about 400 metres, accompanied by some large rocks... as the ash is very wet, most is being deposited close to the vent, building up the new island."
Ash and acidic rain was deluging an area 10 kilometres around the volcano. "Leaves on trees on Hunga Tonga and Hunga Ha'apai have died, probably caused by volcanic ash and gases."Debris from the eruption was not being thrown high into the atmosphere. Tonga, which is almost 2,000 kilometres northeast of New Zealand, lies on the so-called Pacific "Ring of Fire", where continental plates collide causing frequent volcanic and seismic activity.

TROPICAL STORMS -

* In the Western Pacific -
Typhoon Higos is located approximately 658 nm east of Andersen AFB, Guam.

* In the South Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone Fundi is located approximately 840 nm south of Antananarivo, Madagascar.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

3 Mondays, 3 snowstorms in Northeastern U. S. - This is the continuing story of the Winter of 2015. Boston is in the cross hairs again, but winter storm warnings are in place across large portions of the Northeast, including Massachusetts, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
The National Weather Service forecasts 12 to 16 inches of snow by the time the storm ends Tuesday. For Upstate New York, the numbers are 8 to 14 inches. Schools in parts of the Northeast, including Boston, will be closed Monday and Tuesday. "These storms that we're getting are UNPRECEDENTED. We've never seen this type of snow in the city of Boston at any other time in the history of our city."
The storm was snarling air traffic again, but not as bad as in past weeks. FlightAware.com showed more than 1,500 flights into and out of the United States canceled for Monday, on top of the more than 700 flights scrubbed Sunday.
Two other storms have hit the Northeast in the past two weeks, closing airports, canceling classes and creating mountains of snow along cleared roadways. Boston has set a record for the snowiest seven-day period in history, with over 40 inches, the National Weather Service said last week. The city is way past its average annual snowfall of 47 inches.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

Southwestern Australia - A vigorous bushfire threatened homes in Western Australia.

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Thursday, February 5, 2015

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster updates.

Just the quakes today.

LARGEST QUAKES today -
5.0 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
5.0 TACHIRA, VENEZUELA
5.3 TACHIRA, VENEZUELA
5.7 SOUTH OF PANAMA

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster updates.

**Every strike brings me closer to the next home run.**
Babe Ruth

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.2 MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 OFFSHORE SUCRE, VENEZUELA

Yesterday, 2/3/15 -
5.1 WESTERN XIZANG
5.7 SOUTH OF TONGA
5.0 TONGA
5.2 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.5 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

HOW TO SURVIVE A DISASTER - In a catastrophic event, most people fail to do the one thing that would save their life. In life-threatening situations, around 75% of people are so bewildered by the situation that they are unable to think clearly or plot their escape. They become mentally paralysed. Just 15% of people, on average, manage to remain calm and rational enough to make decisions that could save their lives. (The remaining 10% are plain dangerous: they freak out and hinder the survival chances of everyone else.) Typically, survivors survive not because they are braver or more heroic than anyone else, but because they are better prepared.
Stories about survival often focus on the 15%, and what is so special about them that helps them stay alive. But this is the wrong question. Instead, we should be asking, why do so many people die when they need not, when they have the physical means to save themselves? Why do so many give up, or fail to adjust to the unfolding crisis? In most disaster scenarios, you don’t need special skills to survive. You just need to know what you should do. Rather than madness, or an animalistic stampede for the exits, it is often people’s disinclination to panic that puts them at higher risk.
We haven’t always had a clear picture of what people really do in emergencies. Engineers designing evacuation procedures used to assume that people respond immediately when they hear an alarm, smell smoke or feel their building shake or their boat begins to list. Yet as cases in recent decades began to show, the real challenge is getting them to move quickly enough.
On 22 August 1985, 55 people died in a Boeing 737 on the runway at Manchester Airport in the UK after the plane suffered engine failure during take-off. The government’s Air Accident Investigations Branch reported: “Perhaps the most striking feature of this accident was the fact that although the aircraft never became airborne and was brought to a halt in a position which allowed an extremely rapid fire-service attack on the external fire, it resulted in 55 deaths. The major question is why the passengers did not get off the aircraft sufficiently quickly.”
One of the most graphic examples of crowd passivity in recent times occurred in New York’s Twin Towers after the hijacked planes hit them on 9/11. You’d have thought those who survived the initial impact would have headed for the nearest exit pretty quickly. Most did the opposite: they prevaricated. Those who eventually got out waited six minutes on average before moving to the stairs, and some hung around for half an hour. Unprepared for what was happening to them, they either carried on as normal or hung around to see what would happen, waiting for others to move first. One study found that half of those who survived delayed before trying to escape, making phone calls, tidying things into drawers, locking their office door, going to the toilet, completing emails, shutting down their computer, changing their shoes.
The prevailing psychological explanation for these kinds of behaviours – passivity, mental paralysis or simply carrying on as normal in the face of a crisis – is that they are caused by a failure to adapt to a sudden change in the environment. Survival involves goal-directed behaviour: you feel hungry, you look for food; you feel isolated, you seek companionship. Normally, this is straightforward (we know how to find food or companions). But in a new, unfamiliar environment, particularly a stressful one such as a sinking ship or a burning aircraft, establishing survival goals – where the exit is and how to get to it – requires a lot more conscious effort.
“In emergencies, quite often events are happening faster than you can process them.” The situation outruns our capacity to think our way out of it. “Being in a situation where your life is in danger increases your emotional arousal, and high arousal causes people to limit the number of alternatives they consider. That can be bad when trying to determine a course of action, since you may never consider the option most likely to result in escaping safely.”
This explains why in emergencies people often fail to do things that under normal circumstances would seem obvious. So the only reliable way to shortcut this kind of impaired thinking, most survival experts agree, is by preparing for an emergency in advance. “Practice makes actions automatic, without [the need for] detailed thinking.” This means making a mental note of the fire exits when you go to the cinema (and imagining yourself using them), reading the evacuation guidance on the back of the door when you stay in a hotel, and always listening to aircraft safety briefings however frequent a flyer you are.
No matter how well-primed you are, one aspect of emergency situations will always be out of our control: how those around us behave. Here, too, the scientific understanding is at odds with common wisdom or what we are likely to read in the media. Commentators often highlight the supposed stupidity or madness of crowds during disasters – a stampede of pilgrims, the crush of a football crowd, the blind scramble for the exits in a burning nightclub. In reality, this is rarely what happens.
Research shows that in most scenarios, groups of people are more likely to help each other than hinder. “In emergencies, the norm is cooperation. Selfish behaviour is very mild and tends to be policed by the crowd rather than spreading.”
People’s tendency to cooperate during emergencies increases the chances of survival for everyone. “Individually, the best thing tactically is to go along with the group interest. In situations where everyone acts individually, which are very rare, that actually decreases effective group evacuation.” Still, some emergencies can be so disorientating that cooperation may be beyond some people.
The chances are you will never find yourself in a disaster situation. But it’s a good idea to imagine that you will: to be aware that there are threats out there, and that you can prepare for them, without sliding into paranoia. “All you have to do is ask yourself one simple question. If something happens, what is my first response? Once you can answer that, everything else will fall into place. It’s that simple.”

TROPICAL STORMS -

No current tropical storms.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Winter-weary New Englanders could get pummeled by yet another significant snow by the weekend, although model guidance so far has been inconsistent.

What Do the Latest Climate Assessments Tell Us about Nor’easters? - An ever-lengthening procession of winter storms has marched across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast over the last few years. Even their names have grown more prolific and colorful, from Snowmaggedon of January 2010 to this week’s Blizzard of 2015, also known as Winter Storm Juno. Do these monikers imply the storms themselves are getting more fierce?
The naming trend can be explained largely by the demands of social media. However, recent overviews of national and global climate indicate that, as a whole, the most intense rainstorms and snowstorms in the Northeast U.S. are growing even more intense. Our understanding of a warmer climate with wetter extremes arises from both observations of past trends and model-based projections of future climate. It’s also supported by basic physics: in a warmer global environment, more water vapor evaporates from oceans and lakes, where it can be steered into rain- and snow-producing storms.
Many parts of the world are reporting more frequent and intense bouts of extreme precipitation over the last few decades, though a few areas (such as western Asia and southern Australia) are bucking the trend. The IPCC found that “evidence is most compelling for increases in heavy precipitation in North America, Central America and Europe.”
The report also confirms earlier findings that the Northern Hemisphere jet stream continues a long-term poleward migration. That trend is widely expected to continue in the next several decades, though not all studies agree.
Given the potential for disaster inherent in the worst winter storms, even a 13% increase in their frequency could pack a notable punch. However, there is sharp variability from decade to decade in the frequency of such extreme snowstorms, something that should come as no surprise to any longtime weather observer. Which brings us back to the last decade and its bumper crop of Northeastern storms. At New York City’s Central Park, five of the 10 biggest storm-total snowfalls on record have occurred since 2000; in Boston, it’s four of the top 10, and in Washington, three of the top 10.
This 21st-century onslaught could be related to the longer-term boost provided to extreme rains and snows by a warming planet, as well as a shorter-term jump in the frequency of Northeast storms related to cycles in global and regional climate. In addition, a growing amount of research suggests that Arctic amplification and sea-ice loss could be influencing jet-stream behavior and fostering outbreaks of cold and snow in North America and Eurasia. Variations in snow-measuring practice over time may also play a role in local trends and records, although these can generally be factored out of broader-scale studies.
To what extent was the Blizzard of 2015 a product of climate change? All storms are now unfolding in a warmer, moister global climate. Studies have shown that events such as the deadly European heat wave of 2003 and Russian heat wave of 2010 became considerably more likely in a greenhouse-warmed climate.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

Atmospheric River Heads for California - Relief is on the way for drought-stricken parts of the U.S. West later this week, as an intense atmospheric river (AR) takes aim. This ribbon of deep moisture and strong wind will move onshore by Thursday night, kicking off a multiday series of downpours from roughly the northern half of California into the Pacific Northwest.
The impending AR will likely be the most intensely observed in weather history, thanks to an armada of instruments deployed across California and the Northeast Pacific for a two-month interagency study. The project’s goals are to improve prediction of ARs affecting California and to assess the importance of aerosols (airborne particles) in shaping rainfall patterns across the region.
It’s been estimated that 25 - 50% of California’s water supply is derived from AR events. As research intensified on ARs in the 1990s, scientists recognized that the rain-bearing moisture channel often called the “pineapple express” - extending from Hawaii to California - was just one example of a global phenomenon. More than 90% of all the water vapor that flows into midlatitudes from the tropics is channeled by ARs, which span just 10% of the latitudinal band at 35°N.
When a midlatitude storm draws in moisture from an emerging AR, the moisture becomes further concentrated as winds converge just ahead of the associated cold front. ARs can extend more than 1000 miles long but average only about 200 - 400 miles wide. Along with the the classic “pineapple express” pattern, ARs can take on a variety of other shapes and trajectories, which adds complexity to predicting how they’ll behave.
Computer forecast models can now spot many ARs five or more days before they threaten the U.S. West Coast, but there are often big uncertainties among models in the strength, position, and timing of each AR event. Many of the question marks arise simply because of the limited data available from the Pacific Ocean.
Light rain is already pushing into western Oregon and Washington today ahead of the core AR event. The newly upgraded GFS model predcts more than 5” of rain to the north part of the Bay Area through the weekend, with the potential for 5” – 10” or more and very strong winds in and near the coastal range through far northern California and southwest Oregon. More than 10” of liquid equivalent could also over mountainous parts of Washington. Hefty precipitation totals are also expected along the central and northern Sierra Nevada in California, with available water vapor CLOSE TO RECORD-HIGH AMOUNTS for February.
Unfortunately for the snowpack, temperatures through the weekend will be warm enough to keep most of the bounty in the form of rain below 7000 - 8000 feet, with a more general lowering of snow levels only toward the end of the multiday bout of storminess.

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -

CoreLogic has released its annual Natural Hazard Risk Summary Analysis detailing the most significant natural disasters of 2014 and providing several projections for 2015. The report provides a look at the year's hurricanes, floods, hailstorms, tornadoes, wildfires, sinkholes, earthquakes, tropical cyclones and typhoon events in the U.S., as well as an international snapshot of the hazard events that imposed significant damage across the globe.
Among the key findings:
The 2014 hurricane season marked the second consecutive year of low tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean. With only eight named North Atlantic storms, six formed into hurricanes and just two of the six developed into a major hurricane (defined as developing into a Category 3 or larger).
The amount of damage attributed to flooding in 2014 is approximately $4.2 billion in losses for the year, which is below the long-term historical average of $5.3 billion annually.
This year is on track to have the fewest number of tornadoes recorded in the past decade with just 720 tornadoes verified through August and an additional 128 storm reports filed through November.
Overall hail fall across the U.S. this year covered the greatest geographical area of any year since at least 2006. According to hail verification technology, 934,948 square miles, or 18.6 percent of the continental United States, were impacted by hail of 0.75 inches or greater.
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Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster updates.

**Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts**
Mark Twain

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.2 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.5 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

Yesterday, 2/2/15 -
5.4 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.1 SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA
5.2 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.4 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
5.0 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
6.3 SAN LUIS, ARGENTINA
5.9 ADMIRALTY ISLANDS REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 VANUATU
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORMS -

* In the South Pacific -
Tropical cyclone Ola is located approximately 415 nm southwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. The final advisory has been issued on this system.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Groundhog Says: 6 More Weeks of Winter; Top-Five Snowstorm Belts Chicago, Detroit. A classic mid-winter snowstorm is sweeping across the nation, dumping heavy snow along a swath 2,000 miles long from Colorado to Maine.
On Sunday the storm blasted Chicago with heavy snow and strong winds that created near-whiteout blizzard conditions, bringing the city its fifth heaviest snow on record - 19.3". More than 18" of snow plastered Northwest Indiana and Southwest Michigan, with a storm-maximum snowfall amount of 20" observed in Kalamazoo, Michigan. In Southeast Michigan, the 16.7" the storm dumped on Detroit was the city's third heaviest snowfall on record.
By Monday morning, the storm had moved on to Ohio, hitting Cleveland with 4.7". The biggest totals during the remainder of the storm's trek are expected in snow-weary Massachusetts, with snow amounts near 12" expected in Boston. That city received 24.4" of snow from last week's blizzard; several locations in Central Massachusetts near Worcester received 36" of snow, and are expecting another 12" from this storm.
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Monday, February 2, 2015

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster updates.

**Three things in human life are important.  The first is to be kind. The second is to be kind. The third is to be kind.**
Henry James


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -  
5.0 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
6.3 SAN LUIS, ARGENTINA
5.9 ADMIRALTY ISLANDS REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 VANUATU
 5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS


Yesterday, 2/1/15  -
5.2 NORTHERN PERU
5.6 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.3 PRIBILOF ISLANDS, ALASKA REGION
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.6 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.1 PRIBILOF ISLANDS, ALASKA REGION
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.


Southern California's Water Supply Threatened By Next Major Quake - Research shows that a magnitude 7.8 quake on the San Andreas Fault could sever all four aqueducts at once, cutting off more than 70 percent of the water sustaining Southern California. That means millions of people are just one major earthquake away from drying out for a year or more.
Studies show it would take a year or more to rebuild the waterways, and during that time, the state's
economy would lose roughly $53 billion. That's bad news for Southern California companies.  But there's no way to bring water from the north without crossing this fault.
The LA Aqueduct crosses the San Andreas Fault in a large underground tunnel that will shift and crumble in a big quake. But a high-density polyethylene pipe could survive the force. "You can almost collapse this pipe in its entirety and still get water through this, and there are some examples of ductile pipes in similar types of fault rupture events in Turkey that actually did this." LA Water and Power wants to place this pipe in the existing tunnel to keep some water flowing after a major quake.
It's similar to what the San Francisco Bay Area did after its 1989 earthquake. "And we made it so that the pipeline could shift with the movement of the earth and that way it would minimize any damage." That project was paid for by a surcharge added to local water bills. LA is still looking for a way to fund its $10 million plan.
But shoring up tunnels is only part of the answer. The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California also oversees one of the region's four aqueducts located south of LA. If it is destroyed, the Diamond Valley Lake reservoir, a man-made lake that houses water from Northern California, will come in handy. "This is Southern California's largest surface water reservoir. This reservoir is intended to supply about six months' worth of water supply."
The Water District also wants to stockpile construction supplies, so crews can quickly build a new waterway after a disaster. But it's not easy getting these big projects off the ground. "But because we are effectively sitting on a time bomb, we need to keep that in mind and get this done as soon as possible."

 TROPICAL STORMS -

* In the South Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone Eunice is located approximately 945 nm southwest of Cocos Island.

* In the Southern Pacific -
ropical cyclone Ola is located approximately 209 nm west of Noumea, New Caledonia.

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Philippine officials say the death toll has risen to 53 from Tropical Storm Jangmi, which caused landslides and floods in the central and southern parts of the country. Most of the deaths occurred last Tuesday as the storm moved away from southern Mindanao Island, where a day earlier its heavy rains closed highways and bridges.
Many local residents and authorities were caught off guard by the massive landslides that buried houses and vehicles under rocks and mud. Dozens of homes were destroyed. Many of the affected areas had not yet recovered from last year's Super Typhoon Haiyan, which was the strongest storm ever to hit the country. Haiyan killed more than 7,300 people and brought some of the strongest winds ever recorded on land. Thousands of its victims are still living in tents, a year after the storm hit.
The Southeast Asian nation has faced unusually severe typhoons in the past few years, including Typhoon Bopha in 2012, which left 1,900 people dead or missing.


 HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Northeast U.S. braces for second major snowstorm in a week after a huge winter system dumped more than a foot (30 cm) of snow in the Chicago area, closing schools from the Midwest to New England. Chicago Public Schools, the country's third-largest public school system, closed along with districts in Detroit, Boston and Providence,
Rhode Island, canceled classes for Monday as the National Weather Service issued storm warnings and watches continued from western Iowa into upper New England.
The storm followed a blizzard last week that pummeled parts of the East Coast, especially New England states, where up to three feet (90 cm) of snow piled up. New York City had prepared for a major storm but was spared the brunt. Forecasts ranged from about three to six inches (7.6 to 15 cm) in New York City, where light snow began falling mid-evening on Sunday potentially complicating travel for millions of morning commuters, to well over a foot (30.5 cm) in Lowell, Massachusetts, a city north of Boston in an area that was walloped with 30 inches (76 cm) of snow less than a week ago.
A foot (30.5 cm) of snow was predicted for Boston, which was buried under two feet of snow on
Tuesday.Forecasters said snow was expected to fall as the rate of one to two inches (2.5 to 5 cm) per hour in southern New England at the storm's peak, making for extremely hazardous driving conditions. Significant accumulations from Albany, N.Y., to Maine were expected to be exacerbated by winds of up to 40 mph (65 kph). Bitter cold weather was also forecast to follow the snow across the country.

EXTREME HEAT &  DROUGHT / WILDFIRES  -

  Brazil, California Face Specter of Worsening Drought. The supply of water to many cities in the state of São Paulo has been hampered by the worst drought since 1930.
January has not been kind to two parched corners of the Americas. A large chunk of California’s San
Francisco Bay area is wrapping up the month with no measurable rainfall, a first for January since records began - all the way back to 1850 in the case of downtown San Francisco. This week’s U.S. Drought Monitor dataset shows 77.5% of California in the worst two categories of drought (extreme and exceptional), compared to 67.1% at this point last year.
There is still hope that February, March, or even April could bring a few wet storms to salvage the rainy season across central and southern California, but for now the atmosphere appears locked in this year’s version of the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge that delivered severe drought and record heat to California in 2014. With virtually no chance of rain through Saturday, the January records looked certain to be broken (or tied, in the case of Redding).
The state of water supply is far more dire in the region around São Paulo, Brazil, which is the most
populous city in the Western Hemisphere and the third largest metropolitan area. The city’s 11 million residents, and the 20 million across the urbanized region, depend on a system of reservoirs that are perilously close to running completely dry in the midst of the region’s worst drought since at least 1930.
Almost half of the São Paulo metro area relies on the main reservoir system, Cantareira, which has slumped to just 5.1% of capacity as of January 29.  The crisis is affecting not only water access but power, since the region is highly dependent on hydroelectricity. Sporadic power cuts have been reported, and close to 100 cities have implemented some type of water rationing, affecting some 4 million people. There have also been reports of unofficial rationing in the São Paulo area itself.
Climatologically, rainfall is ample across this subtropical area, and unlike San Francisco, the São Paulo region hasn’t been completely bone-dry this month. Showers and thunderstorms have dropped modest amounts of rain on the city on about half of all days this month, totaling 4.21.” However, this is far short of the average monthly total for January of 13.76".
The latest rainfall forecasts for the region are not especially encouraging - the Friday Weather Underground forecast for Sao Paulo predicted near-average rains of about 2" for the coming week, and the Friday morning 12 UTC run of the GFS model predicted near-average rains of about 5" in the Sao Paulo region through mid-February.
Even assuming water can be found elsewhere in the region to help get the city through the immediate crisis, the impacts on power supply may continue to loom large. São Paulo sits more than 40 miles inland and 2600 feet above sea level, making desalination an impractical option. The Center for Climate Change and Security notes the major risks presented by the current drought as well as other droughts that could develop across Brazil in the coming decade and beyond.
Although the nation has made great strides in reducing deforestation over the last few years, the losses already incurred cut back on the ability of forests - especially those in the Amazon - to catch moisture and return it to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration. Many studies have shown potential links between the loss of Amazon rainforest and regional droughts.
 No direct links have yet been made between the São Paulo drought and deforestation. However,
“because most of the water that irrigates the bread-basket quadrangle of southern South America originates from the Amazon, the future climate of the continent may be considerably dryer. In a
worst-case scenario, it would resemble present-day Australia: a vast desert interior fringed on one side by strips of wetter areas near the sea.”


 'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -

  Unusual number of UK flowers bloom - Botanists have been stunned by the results of their annual hunt for plants in flower on New Year’s Day. They say according to textbooks there should be between 20 and 30 species in flower. This year there were 368 in bloom.
It raises further questions about the effects of climate change during the UK’s warmest year on record. “This is extraordinary. Fifty years ago people looking for plants in flower at the start of the year found 20 species. This year the total has amazed us – we are stunned. During the holiday I drove along the A34 south of Newbury and saw half a mile of gorse in flower when gorse is supposed to flower in April and May. It’s bizarre.
“We are now in our fourth mild winter. Normally flowers get frosted off by Christmas but this year it hasn’t happened.”  368 species in flower is an UNPRECEDENTED 15% of the flowering plants in Britain and Ireland – an “amazing” total. The high count was partly due to the growth in the number of volunteers - but mostly due to climate change.
It was possible that plants in unseasonal flower might be badly hit if February bring very cold weather. The Met Office has confirmed 2014 as the warmest year on UK record, with the wettest winter and the hottest Halloween. It is also the warmest year in the Met Office’s Central England Temperature series, which dates to 1659.
The most commonly recorded plants in flower were daisy and dandelion, each of which was recorded in 115 lists (75%). The mild south and west of Britain had the highest numbers of species still in flower, but there were 50 species identified in the east and north of England, and 39 species flowering in Edinburgh. In absolute numbers, Cardiff won with 71 species in flower and Cornwall came second with 70 species in flower.
 “It was astonishing to see so many records flooding in, from Guernsey to the Moray Firth and Norfolk to Donegal. Ireland had consistently high numbers of plants in flower too, with the average of about 20 – almost exactly on a par with Britain.”


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I will be back on track for updating at the end of this month - with every intention of regular updating in 2015. (My New Year's resolution!)
HAPPY HOLIDAYS EVERYONE!

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster updates.

**The best definition of man is: a being that goes on two legs and is ungrateful.**
Dostoevsky

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.0 OFF W. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z.
6.6 MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.8 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.0 ICELAND

Yesterday, 12/1/14 -
5.4 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.6 AUCKLAND ISLANDS, N.Z. REGION
5.3 ICELAND
5.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.1 CARLSBERG RIDGE

11/30/14 -
5.0 PALAU REGION
5.0 OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z.
5.2 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.

11/29/14 -
5.7 MOLUCCA SEA
5.3 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.0 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.2 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.0 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.0 CENTRAL ALASKA

11/28/14 -
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA
5.2 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.4 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.2 CELEBES SEA
5.1 PANAMA-COLOMBIA BORDER REGION
5.0 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.2 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

11/27/14 -
5.3 TONGA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.3 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.3 CARLSBERG RIDGE

11/26/14 -
5.5 NORTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.1 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.6 MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA
6.8 MOLUCCA SEA
5.2 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS

11/25/14 -
5.3 NORTHERN COLOMBIA
5.3 TRISTAN DA CUNHA REGION
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA
5.6 WESTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.1 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.0 CARLSBERG RIDGE

11/24/14 -
5.6 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.3 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.2 ICELAND

VOLCANOES -
One of world's largest volcanoes erupts in Japan - A volcano in southern Japan blasted out chunks of magma Friday in the first such eruption in 22 years, causing flight cancellations and prompting warnings to stay away from its crater. Mount Aso spewed out lava debris and smoke, shooting plumes of ash a kilometer (3,280 feet) into the sky. Dozens of flights from Kumamoto, the nearest city, were canceled.
The observatory did not expect the eruption to increase in scale. Mount Aso, about 1,000 kilometers (625 miles) southwest of Tokyo on Kyushu island, is one of the world's largest. Earthquakes and other seismic activity stepped up in late August. Eruptions by another volcano, Mount Ontake, in Nagano west of Tokyo killed more than 50 people in late September. (photos at link)

Cape Verde volcano threatens to destroy villages, as government meets with U.N. officials. Molten rock from a thundering volcano threatens to engulf several villages in Cape Verde – days after its initial eruption. The active volcano, Pico do Fogo, is the archipelago’s highest peak on its most prominent island: Fogo, which means fire.
It burst open on November 23 for the first time since 1995 and has continued to erupt – prompting government officials to call for an emergency meeting with U.N. representatives and aid agencies. "In the last few hours, there was an increase in volcanic activity and the lava is flowing towards Portela and this community may be completely engulfed by lava. The potential is for the total destruction of Cha das Caldeiras, one of the most fertile regions of Cape Verde.”
A gigantic lake of black lava could be seen a few feet from homes in the village of Portela and the 1,200 residents of Cha das Caldeiras fled for emergency shelters. This was Pico do Fogo’s largest eruption since 1951. Witnesses have been shooting videos of the continuing eruptions.(photo & videos at link)

Iceland - There have been insubstantial changes to the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun over the last two weeks. Seismic activity in Bárðarbunga volcano under Vatnajökull glacier continues to be strong. The biggest earthquake since noon on Friday was of magnitude 4.5.
Twelve earthquakes larger then magnitude 4.0 were detected in Bárðarbunga over the weekend and about 200 earthquakes in total. About ten earthquakes were detected in the intrusive dike, connecting Bárðarbunga with Holuhraun, and around the eruption site since Friday. All of them were smaller than magnitude 1.0. The seismograph network is sensitive to wind, so fewer smaller earthquakes are detected during a storm like the one which hit Iceland Sunday.

TROPICAL STORMS -

* In the Western Pacific -
Tropical storm 22w (Hagupit), located approximately 484 nm south-southeast of Andersen AFB, Guam.
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Tropical Storm Hagupit,was just a low pressure area on Nov. 30, but warm waters and good atmospheric conditions allowed the storm to develop rapidly. By Dec. 1 the low pressure area strengthened into a tropical storm. Hagupit developed from low pressure area System 95W. On Nov. 30, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center was monitoring System 95W when it was a couple of hundred miles south of the island of Chuuk. Chuuk is an island and one of the four states of the Federated States of Micronesia, located in the western North Pacific Ocean.
By Dec. 1 at 0900 UTC (4 a.m. EST), the low pressure area had been designated as a tropical depression and was renamed Tropical Depression 22W. Six hours later, the storm had quickly intensified into Tropical Storm Hagupit as maximum sustained winds strengthened near 40 knots (46 mph/73 kph). At that time Hagupit was centered about 140 nautical miles south-southwest of Chuuk and was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 knots (17.2 mph/27.7 kph).
The forecast from JTWC calls for slow intensification of the tropical storm over the next day. Thereafter, the storm is expected to intensify rapidly because of improved upper-level atmospheric conditions and warm sea surface temperatures. The JTWC is forecasting Hagupit as a typhoon as its center passes just to the north of the island of Yap on Dec. 3 while continuing to move in a west-northwesterly direction.
There are several warnings and watches now in effect for Tropical Storm Hagupit. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Satawal in Yap state. A typhoon watch is in effect in Faraulep, Woleai, Fais and Ulithi in Yap state, and a tropical storm watch is in force in Puluwat in Chuuk state.

The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Ends With Below-Average Activity - The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is officially in the books, ending up with below average activity - 8 named storms: 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Flooding in France claims five lives - Severe storms continue to batter the western Mediterranean, with damaging winds and torrential downpours. The latest has brought severe flooding to southern France, where five people have died, and thousands of people have been forced to evacuate their homes. (video)

Gaza floods: UN declares state of emergency - The United Nations has declared a state of emergency in the Gaza Strip after two days of heavy rain led to severe flooding. No casualties have been reported but hundreds of people have been evacuated and 63 schools are closed for the day in Gaza City.
Heavy rains which began on Wednesday hit the small territory at a difficult time, as thousands of Gazan families still live in communal shelters or the ruins of their own homes after recent conflict. In the Shejaiya neighbourhood, where air strikes during the recent conflict damaged many of the buildings, residents already face a cold winter without electricity or water.
"We are very concerned about such severe storms this early in the season and on the back of unprecedented damage and destruction caused by the recent conflict. We are particularly concerned for those families still seeking adequate shelter and preparing for the winter months, and for the impact the flooding is already having on children unable to attend school." (video & photos at link)

Fierce wind knocks out windows, power in Wyoming - Hurricane-force wind knocked out windows and electricity, topped a 40- foot spruce tree onto a visitor center and inconvenienced Black Friday shoppers in northwest Wyoming.Winds reached 82 mph in Cody and 117 mph in Clark, an unincorporated community of 300 about 40 miles east of Yellowstone National Park.
No damage was reported in Clark, which in certain weather conditions is known to get blasted by extremely strong wind out of the nearby Absaroka Mountains. In Cody, gusts the day after Thanksgiving toppled a 40- foot Colorado spruce onto a visitor center. Electricity cut out for a few hours in a neighborhood of about 100 homes. One home had two storm windows knocked out. The National Weather Service predicted strong winds would continue through the weekend as a storm system that dumped heavy snow on Jackson Hole and Yellowstone moved through the region.

California - Rains in the Malibu area have covered part of the Pacific Coast Highway in mud, rocks and debris from a former wildfire area and left about a dozen vehicles stranded. 10 to 15 vehicles were marooned Sunday afternoon in eastern Ventura County by several inches of mud and sharp rocks that damaged tires. A six-mile stretch of PCH was closed and expected to remain that way until Monday.
The troubles stood in contrast to the light-but-rare rains that fell on other Southern California cities. Just trace amounts of rain were recorded in Burbank and parts of Los Angeles' San Fernando Valley. Forecasters say the brunt of the storm isn't expected to reach Southern California until Tuesday, when 2 to 3 inches of rain could fall.
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