Tuesday, September 20, 2011

**We are what we repeatedly do.**
Aristotle


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE

Yesterday -
9/19/11 -
5.8 GUATEMALA
5.6 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.3 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

GUATEMALA - Four earthquakes struck the southeastern part of Guatemala in less than two hours Monday afternoon, causing at least one death as some walls collapsed. At least three people were reported missing. The temblors were felt across much of the Central American country, the largest a 5.8 magnitude. All were centered in an area about 30 miles southeast of the capital, Guatemala City. "There is no reason to think there will be anything bigger." All four quakes were connected to the same fault running through the area.
Besides Cuilapa, the areas of Santa Maria Inhuatan and Oratorio were most affected. Public buildings were evacuated and school classes canceled. Many people camped out in tents Monday night because of damage to their homes or worries about further quakes. The quakes also caused landslides along the main highway to El Salvador, and at least one car was buried. The largest quake hit about 12:34 local time, a half hour after a 4.8-magnitude temblor. Another 4.8-magnitude quake hit at about 1:20 p.m. A fourth of 4.5-magnitude was reported in an area south of the others at 2:30 p.m. The depths of the quakes varied from 23 miles to 38 miles.

VOLCANOES -

INDONESIA - Farmers flee as world's deadliest volcano rumbles. Bold farmers in Indonesia routinely ignore orders to evacuate the slopes of live volcanoes, but those living on Tambora took no chances when history's deadliest mountain rumbled ominously this month. Villagers have heard since they were young how the mountain they call home once blew apart in the largest eruption ever recorded in an 1815 event, killing 90,000 people and blackening skies on the other side of the globe.
Farmers didn't wait to hear what experts had to say when Mount Tambora started being rocked by a steady stream of quakes. They grabbed their families, packed their belongings and raced down its quivering slopes. Hundreds refused to return to their mountainside villages for several days despite assurances they were safe.
"It was like a horror story, growing up. A dragon sleeping inside the crater, that's what we thought. If we made him angry — were disrespectful to nature, say — he'd wake up spitting flames, destroying all of mankind."
The April 1815 eruption of Tambora left a crater 7 miles (11 kilometers) wide and half a mile (1 kilometer) deep, spewing an estimated 400 million tons of sulfuric gases into the atmosphere and leading to "the year without summer" in the U.S. and Europe. Temperatures worldwide plummeted, causing crops to fail and leading to massive starvation. Farmers on the northeastern coast of the U.S. reported snow well into July. It was several times more powerful than Indonesia's much better-known Krakatoa blast of 1883 — history's second deadliest. But it doesn't share the same international renown, because the only way news spread across the oceans at the time was by slowboat. In contrast, Krakatoa's eruption occurred just as the telegraph became popular, turning it into the first truly global news event.
The reluctance of residents to return to villages less than 6 miles (10 kilometers) from Tambora's crater sounds like simple good sense. But it runs contrary to common practice in the sprawling nation of 240 million — home to more volcanoes than any other in the world. Even as Merapi, Kelut and other famously active mountains shoot out towering pillars of hot ash, farmers cling to their fertile slopes, leaving only when soldiers load them into trucks at gunpoint. They return before it's safe so they can check on their livestock and crops.
People here are jittery because of the mountain's history — and they're not used to feeling the earth move so violently beneath their feet. Aside from a few minor bursts in steam in the 1960s, the mountain has been quiet for much of the last 200 years.
Activity first picked up in April, with the volcanic quakes jumping from less than five a month to more than 200. It also started spewing ash and smoke into the air, sometimes as high as 1,400 meters (4,600 feet). That's something I've never seen it do before." Authorities raised the alert to the second-highest level two weeks ago, but said only villagers within 2 miles (3 kilometers) from the crater needed to evacuate. That didn't stop hundreds of men, women and children living well outside the danger zone from packing their clothes, jewelry and important documents and heading to the homes of family and friends elsewhere on Sumbawa island.
"We've urged them to go back to harvest their crops, get their kids back in school, but we're having a hard time. The new alert awakened fears about 1815." Most people finally trickled back to their homes by Monday.
No one expects a repeat of 1815 just yet — it takes much more than 200 years for that type of huge pressure to build up again. The present activity could be part of the birth of Tambora's so-called child, a process whereby magma still being pushed upward from the original massive blast forms a new volcano in its place.
But that's little consolation for those confronted with the mountain's new burst of activity. In the big eruption, "tens of thousands of peo

Future Iceland Eruptions Could Be Deadly for Europe - A new study suggests that a blast akin to one that devastated Iceland in the 1780s would waft noxious gases southwestward and kill tens of thousands of people in Europe. And in a modern world that is intimately connected by air traffic and international trade, economic activity across much of Europe, including the production and import of food, could plummet. From June of 1783 until February of 1784, the Laki volcano in south-central Iceland erupted. Although the event didn’t produce large amounts of volcanic ash, it did spew an estimated 122 million metric tons of sulfur dioxide gas into the sky — a volume slightly higher than human industrial activity today produces in the course of a year.
Historical records suggest that in the 2 years after the Laki eruption, approximately 10,000 Icelanders died — about one-fifth of the population — along with nearly three-quarters of the island’s livestock. Parish records in England reveal that in the summer of 1783, when the event began, death rates were between 10 percent and 20 percent above normal. The Netherlands, Sweden, and Italy reported episodes of decreased visibility, respiratory difficulties, and increased mortality associated with the eruption. According to one study, an estimated 23,000 people died from exposure to the volcanic aerosols in Britain alone. But elsewhere in Europe, it’s difficult to separate deaths triggered by the air pollution from those caused by starvation or disease, which were prominent causes of death at the time.
In the first 3 months after a hypothetical eruption would begin, the average aerosol concentration over Europe would increase by 120 percent. The number of days during the eruption in which aerosol concentrations exceed air-quality standards would rise to 74, when a normal period that length typically includes only 38. Not surprisingly, the air would become thickest with dangerous particles in areas downwind of the eruption, such as Iceland and northwestern Europe, where aerosol concentrations would more than triple. But aerosol concentrations in southern Europe would also increase dramatically, rising by 60 percent. In the year after the hypothetical eruption commences, the increased air pollution swept from Iceland to Europe would cause massive amounts of heart and lung disease, killing an estimated 142,000 people. Fewer than half that number of Europeans die from seasonal flu each year.
At least four Laki-sized eruptions have occurred in Iceland in the past 1,150 years. So the new figures are cause for concern. Icelandic volcanoes shut down European air traffic for more than a week in April 2010 and for several days in May of this year. But those eruptions are tiny compared with a Laki-sized eruption, which could ground airplanes for 6 months or more. Such an event would have a huge impact on crop yields and, by affecting shipping and air traffic, would also affect Europeans’ ability to import food. It could even have a dramatic effect on daily life. “If there are sulfur dioxide clouds over Europe, people with respiratory problems can’t do much about it except stay indoors.”

ALASKA - Contentious Cleveland Volcano Has A Thermal Anomaly - A thermal anomaly was observed in satellite data over the past day, which is consistent with continued growth of the lava dome at the Cleveland volcano. No ash emissions have been observed during this current eruptive episode that began in mid-July 2011. No other new reports have been received regarding the volcano — however, the aviation color code is orange with the volcano alter level now at watch.
The current episode of dome growth resumed around September 3rd. A growing lava dome in the crater increases the possibility of an explosive eruption, but does not necessarily indicate that one will occur. Short-lived explosions could produce ash clouds that exceed 20,000 ft. above sea level. These events can occur without warning and may go undetected in satellite imagery for hours. If lava dome growth continues, it could overflow the crater rim to produce a lava flow and/or collapse to produce pyroclastic flows. Collapse of a lava flow or dome would likely result in the generation of a volcanic ash cloud. Without a real-time seismic network on the volcano, AVO is unable to track local earthquake activity related to volcanic unrest, provide forecasts of eruptive activity, or confirmation of explosive, ash-producing events. AVO will continue to monitor the volcano using multiple sources of satellite data.

TROPICAL STORMS -

In the Atlantic -
No current tropical storms.

In the Pacific -
-Typhoon 18w (Roke) was located approximately 280 nm south of Sasebo, Japan.

-Tropical Storm 19w (Sonca) was located approximately 650 nm east of Misawa, Japan.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

CHINA - Heavy rains and floods across China have left 57 people dead, 29 others are missing and hundreds injured, while more than a million residents have been evacuated from their homes.
UNPRECEDENTED rains during the past week have swamped parts of northern, central and south-west China, and although the affected region is breathing a tentative sigh of relief as the downpours pause, rivers continue to swell.
The rain has forced authorities to evacuate more than 1.2 million people from their homes. "Constant strong rainfall has caused serious flood disasters in Sichuan (southwest), Shaanxi (north) and Henan (central China)."
More than 120,000 houses have collapsed and economic losses from damaged houses, crops and land is estimated to have reached 17.27 billion yuan ($2.65 billion). Authorities have dispatched work teams to help with relief efforts, and plan to distribute thousands of tents, cots, blankets and clothing. One area of the southwestern province of Sichuan, Bazhong, was severely affected, with 13 people left dead, 10 missing and 156 injured. Over the weekend, officials in Sichuan's Dazhou and Guangan regions ordered the evacuation of more than 600,000 people as major tributaries to the Yangtze - China's longest river - exceeded danger levels.
The Jialing river was recorded nearly seven metres above alert levels, and waters were expected to rise to their HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE RECORD-KEEPING BEGAN in 1847. China is hit by big downpours every summer. Last year saw the nation's worst flooding in a decade, leaving more than 4300 people dead or missing.

AUSTRALIA - Strong winds have blown down trees and damaged homes across Victoria. The State Emergency Service had 420 requests for help as a strong cold front moved across the state following a 28.3C day yesterday. The calls were predominantly to clear trees that had fallen on roads, power lines, driveways and in backyards. There were also reports of building damage, mainly to roofs of homes and sheds from fallen trees or roofs being partly blown off. The wind gusts peaked in the alps with 135km/h recorded at Mount Hotham and 130km/h at Mount Buller.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

GREENLAND - Leading UK polar scientists say the Times Atlas of the World was wrong to assert that it has had to re-draw its map of Greenland due to climate change. The latest edition of the atlas, launched last week, said warming had turned 15% of Greenland's former ice-covered land "green and ice-free". But scientists from the Scott Polar Research Institute say the figures are wrong; the ice has not shrunk so much. The Atlas costs £150 ($237) and claims to be the world's "most authoritative".
The break-up of some Antarctic ice shelves due to climate change, the shrinking of inland waters such as the Dead and Aral Seas, and the drying up of rivers such as the Colorado River are all documented. But the glossy publicity sheets begin with the contention that "for the first time, the new edition of the (atlas) has had to erase 15% of Greenland's once permanent ice cover - turning an area the size of the United Kingdom and Ireland 'green' and ice-free. "This is concrete evidence of how climate change is altering the face of the planet forever - and doing so at an alarming and accelerating rate."
The Scott Polar group says the claim of a 15% loss in just 12 years is wrong. The Scott Polar team says treatment of eastern Greenland is of particular concern. "Recent satellite images of Greenland make it clear that there are in fact still numerous glaciers and permanent ice cover where the new Times Atlas shows ice-free conditions and the emergence of new land. We do not know why this error has occurred, but it is regrettable that the claimed drastic reduction in the extent of ice in Greenland has created headline news around the world. There is to our knowledge no support for this claim in the published scientific literature."
Many of the institute's staff are intimately involved in research that documents and analyses the impacts of climate change across the Arctic. As such, they back the contention that rising temperatures are cutting ice cover across the region, including along the fringes of Greenland; but not anything like as fast as the Times Atlas claimed. "It is... crucial to report climate change and its impact accurately and to back bold statements with concrete and correct evidence."
The Times Atlas is published by Times Books, an imprint of HarperCollins, which is in turn owned by Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation. A spokesperson for HarperCollins said its new map was based on information provided by the US National Snow and Ice Data Center. "While global warming has played a role in this reduction, it is also as a result of the much more accurate data and in-depth research that is now available. Read as a whole, both the press release and the 13th edition of the Atlas make this clear."

Extreme bushfire risk in eastern Australia - Hot, dry, northerly winds have pushed the chance of a bushfire in eastern Australia to CATASTROPHIC LEVELS. The temperature boost - up to 14C above average - has put regional fire services on high alert. Queensland fire services have already been battling nearly 150 bushfires brought on by the dry conditions.
The hot dry spell has led to catastrophic fire conditions being declared in New South Wales and Victoria. In Queensland fire danger is considered extreme – but could soon be upgraded. “Mildura in Victoria recorded a catastrophic fire danger around noon with a temperature of 31C, winds averaging 57 km/h and humidity just 6 per cent. Across the border Wanaaring also recorded a catastrophic afternoon fire danger while to the north Nyngan in central New South Wales recorded an extreme danger at 3pm with 32C, 59 km/h winds and 12 per cent humidity. In Queensland fire dangers reached severe levels through the southwest with Birdsville recording temperatures of 35C, winds at 40km/h and humidity 12 per cent.”
The hazardous fire dangers were the result of a strengthening northerly air stream which brought a hot, dry, air-mass south from the interior. Firefighters say the news isn’t good for summer. Higher than normal rainfall over eastern Australia this winter has led to substantial grass growth. As the grass begins to dry out, there’s an increased risk of deadly grass fires. "Grass fires can be especially dangerous because they can start quickly and spread rapidly, catching people off-guard. They can be very hot and produce large amounts of heat which can kill anyone caught out in the open.”

Monday, September 19, 2011

Strong 6.9 quake rocks northeastern India and Himalayan states, triggering power cuts and panic as at least 48 people died, including in Tibet and at Britain's embassy in Nepal. Officials in affected countries warned that the death toll could rise as reports filter in from remote areas. Tremors were felt more than 1,000km away in New Delhi to the west, and in Bangladesh to the east.
At least 60 people were injured by mudslides, falling debris and collapsing buildings in Gangtok, the capital of India's Himalayan state of Sikkim. "There is no electricity. Everybody is out on the road. We all ran out our houses, some even jumped out of their windows. You can see some buildings that have developed cracks." Five people have been killed in the city, and another 10 died in building collapses and landslides in neighbouring towns and villages.
The quake was felt across a wide region including the Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan after it struck the border of Sikkim and Nepal at about 6:10pm on Sunday (local time). Its epicentre was just over 60km north-west of Gangtok, at a relatively shallow depth of 19.7km. The quake was followed by two strong aftershocks.
Seven people were killed in southern Tibet, near the border with Sikkim. Strong tremors were felt in Guwahati, the main city in India's Assam state, some 600km away, sending people running into the streets. "Our apartment block was literally swaying." In Kathmandu, traffic came to a standstill as hotels and bars were evacuated. Hundreds of anxious tourists and residents waited for news in car parks and on the streets as the seasonal monsoon rain lashed down. In Bhutan, buildings in the capital Thimphu also shook. India's seven northeastern states, joined to the rest of the country by a narrow sliver of land, are located in an area of frequent seismic activity.

**The gem cannot be polished without friction,
nor man perfected without trials.**
Chinese Proverb


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.2 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

Yesterday -
9/18/11 -
5.3 KEPULAUAN SULA, INDONESIA
5.2 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.8 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.0 SIKKIM, INDIA
6.9 SIKKIM, INDIA

CALIFORNIA - Earthquake considered among causes in woman's death from fallen tree. An earthquake that rattled Orange County on Thursday is among the potential causes under investigation as officials try to determine why a 10-ton tree fell on a woman's car and killed her while she waited at a stop light. But officials stressed its one of many theories being looked at and that it's far too early to determine a cause. A magnitude 3.5 earthquake that took place off Newport Beach about 2:56 a.m. Thursday may have played a role, though there easily could have been other contributing factors.
Other possible causes include moist soil and trimmed roots. Soil conditions, whether the ground was wet or slanted, and the health of the tree, are all potential factors that could have felled the 50-foot blue gum eucalyptus. The tree showed no signs of illness.

TROPICAL STORMS -

In the Atlantic -
No current tropical storms.

In the Pacific -
-Tropical storm 18w (Roke) was located approximately 140 nm east of Kadena AB, Japan.

-Typhoon 19w (Sonca) was located approximately 230 nm east-southeast of Yokosuka, Japan.

Tropical Storm 18W (Roke) - As of 12:30 p.m. Monday, Sept. 19, Japan time: Yokosuka Naval Base remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Tropical Storm Roke has slowed down some; closest point of approach to the Kanto now forecast for 7 p.m. Wednesday, 20 miles west of Yokota Air Base, Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 40 miles west of Yokosuka. It’s a relatively small storm in terms of diameter, but it will still pack a mean wallop, sustained 58-mph winds and 81-mph gusts at its center. Yokosuka’s local forecast calls for winds to pick up starting Tuesday, 18 to 23 mph sustained and 30-mph gusts, increasing to 23-28 and 35 mid-morning Wednesday, 30-35 and 50 by early afternoon and 35-40 and 55 by evening. Roke has long been a case study for the MOST UNUSUAL OF WEATHER SYSTEMS.
Tropical Storm Roke should (finally) make its closest point of approach to Okinawa this morning, some 150 miles east at 9 a.m., after which it’s forecast to start picking up steam and racing toward the Tokyo area. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track calls for Roke to plow virtually right over Yokota Air Base, Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama. Wednesday. Prior to that, Typhoon Sonca will give the Kanto area a dusting of wind gusting to 30 mph today with some showers from the storm’s outer bands. A small-craft warning remains in effect.

Effects of Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee in Maryland - Drenching rains from remnants of Tropical Storm Lee produced the second-largest water flows from the Susquehanna River into the Bay since Hurricane Agnes in June 1972. Flows from Agnes were measured at more than 1 million cubic feet per second. A major snow melt in 1996 caused a flow of more than 900,000 cubic feet per second. The peak flow from Lee was more than 750,000 cubic feet per second. This condition required that all of the floodgates on the Conowingo Dam be opened. Sediment, nutrients and bulk trash that had collected behind the dam for years were released into the Susquehanna.
These loadings comprise a direct injection of pollutants into the Bay. To add insult to injury, more than 500 million gallons of diluted sewage washed into bay waters in Maryland alone and an estimated 200 million gallons poured in from Washington D.C. In addition, runoff from farms awash in livestock manure and fertilizer containing nitrogen and phosphorous, and the flow from city and suburban streets, lawns, and rooftops contributed more nitrogen and phosphorous, as well as garbage. These conditions create a pollution cocktail that produces the summer's annual "dead zone," (this year THE LARGEST ON RECORD.) Dead zones (caused by algae blooms that feed on the excess nutrients) develop every summer and generally end in the early weeks of fall. This year Hurricane Irene caused a premature mixing of the normally stratified oxygen depleted and oxygen rich layers, essentially removing the dead zone at least temporarily.
A major concern, however, is that these recent events could cause a secondary dead zone to form, or perhaps produce one next year that will exceed this year's record breaker. Eventually we will accurately gauge the impact of these storms, but what we must appreciate now and going forward is that our behavior is more to fault than that of Mother Nature. The majority of debris and pollution we see right now is a result of how we use land in Maryland and how our neighbors use it upstream. Another storm with another name will impact the Bay in the future - this is inevitable. We can, however, reduce the impact by working hard to reduce the loadings from every source in the watershed so that the next onslaught will be less damaging to our efforts to bring about a Bay-wide restoration.

VERMONT - Response to flood worsens impact on rivers, fish. The flash floods unleashed by Tropical Storm Irene washed out roads, swept away bridges, and devastated homes and businesses from Waterbury to Wilmington. Irene also ended up taking a hard toll on rivers and the aquatic life they support. One cannot equate fish to people, but what makes this equally tragic is much of the damage was done after the flood waters receded.
For most of the past two weeks, rivers in the mountain valleys of central and southern Vermont have been crawling with excavators and bulldozers. Streams have been dredged and channelized. River beds have been deepened and widened. Banks have been armored and bermed. Sections of some rivers look more like artificial chutes than tumbling freestone streams. You have to see it to believe it. It will be years, if ever, before some river sections come back. Worse, it’s a largely man-made tragedy. “The response to the flood will have more of a long-term impact (on rivers) than the flood itself,” a state fisheries biologist said. "There’s so much work going on, with so little oversight, and it’s happening all over.”
Because the destruction wrought by Irene was so widespread, the state Department of Environmental Conservation — which regulates river alterations — issued special emergency guidelines for in-stream work to help expedite flood recovery. It essentially gave landowners, towns and other agencies a green light to work in rivers with little if any supervision from the state’s four river management engineers, who have been overwhelmed by the scope of the flooding. To be sure, something had to be done and done quickly where rivers jumped their banks and cut new channels through developed areas; where channels were choked with gravel and sediment; where river crossings were destroyed; and where roads, bridges and homes were otherwise threatened.
But it’s also safe to say that much of the work exceeded the intent of the guidelines, which still required state approval for extreme practices like excavating channels deeper and wider than what is required for annual flood discharges; dredging beds beyond what is needed to remove existing threats; and berming and armoring banks where no buildings or roads are at risk. Practices that not only destroy aquatic habitats, they can actually increase the damage from future floods by accelerating stream flows. A prime example can be found on the Middlebury River in East Middlebury, a community that suffered minimal damage compared to towns to the east and south, and a river that in the opinion of a state river scientist “was fine” after Irene. That was before the town of Middlebury sent excavators into the channel. In the process of addressing three legitimate trouble spots, they destroyed some of the best trout habitat on the lower river. “The fish habitat value and biological integrity of this reach of river has been significantly impacted. The stream channel and bottom is now mostly uniform across its width, with very little heterogeneity of bottom structure, and almost zero habitat complexity. Riffles, runs and pools have been converted to one big long chute. In addition to the degraded aquatic environment and loss of fish habitat, it is likely that the work being done may increase the risk of damage and threaten properties downstream in future flood events. The river channelization and bank armoring will increase bed incision and reduce the river’s access to the flood plain. In future floods, this could result in increased water velocity in the river channel, intensifying any resulting property damage downstream.”
Sadly, the same could be said for sections of many other streams. In one respect, however, the Middlebury River was lucky. Local anglers were irate. They packed a Middlebury Selectboard meeting where they got the town to agree to stop instream operations and even restore some habitat features. But according to a river restoration specialist, “They’ll never be able to put it back the way it was.” Many river experts say that the damage wrought by Irene was an inevitable consequence of continued human encroachment into river corridors and a long history of attempting to deny rivers access to their flood plains after previous floods. If so, it would appear we have learned little, and if anything might have made things worse. What is clear is that after the roads and bridges are rebuilt, those of us who view rivers as more than mere conduits of water will be living with the aftereffects of Irene for years, if not decades, to come.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Global warming: ‘Missing’ heat found deep in the ocean - Changes in ocean currents and circulation are capturing some of the sun’s incoming heat deep in the ocean, according to researchers with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, who said their latest computer models account for some of the global warming heat that’s “missing” from land and sea surface temperature readings.
The heat is stored at depths below 1,000 feet and could lead to periods as long as 10 years when the rate of heating on the Earth’s surface flattens. The findings also suggest that several more intervals like this can be expected over the next century, even as the trend toward overall warming continues. “We will see global warming go through hiatus periods in the future. However, these periods would likely last only about a decade or so, and warming would then resume. This study illustrates one reason why global temperatures do not simply rise in a straight line.”
The 2000s were Earth’s warmest decade in more than a century of weather records. However, the single-year mark for warmest global temperature, which had been set in 1998, remained unmatched until 2010. Yet emissions of greenhouse gases continued to climb during the 2000s, and satellite measurements showed that the discrepancy between incoming sunshine and outgoing radiation from Earth actually increased. This implied that heat was building up somewhere on Earth. The global warming deniers and skeptics in the science community latched on to the concept of “missing heat,” claiming that it showed that the existing global warming models are flawed. Now, the latest study by the NCAR climate scientists suggests that the oceans might be storing some of the heat that would otherwise go toward other processes, such as warming the atmosphere or land, or melting more ice and snow.
Observations from a global network of buoys showed some warming in the upper ocean, but not enough to account for the global build-up of heat. Simulations, based on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, indicated that temperatures would rise by several degrees during this century. But each simulation also showed periods in which temperatures would stabilize for about a decade before climbing again. For example, one simulation showed the global average rising by about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit between 2000 and 2100, but with two decade-long hiatus periods during the century. During these hiatus periods, simulations showed that extra energy entered the oceans, with deeper layers absorbing a disproportionate amount of heat due to changes in oceanic circulation. The vast area of ocean below about 1,000 feet (300 meters) warmed by 18 percent to 19 percent more during hiatus periods than at other times. In contrast, the shallower global ocean above 1,000 feet warmed by 60 percent less than during non-hiatus periods in the simulation. “This study suggests the missing energy has indeed been buried in the ocean. The heat has not disappeared, and so it cannot be ignored. It must have consequences.”
The simulations also indicated that the oceanic warming during hiatus periods has a regional signature. During a hiatus, average sea-surface temperatures decrease across the tropical Pacific, while they tend to increase at higher latitudes, especially around 30 degrees south and 30 degrees north in the Pacific and between 35 degrees north and 40 degrees north in the Atlantic, where surface waters converge to push heat into deeper oceanic layers. These patterns are similar to those observed during a La Niña event. El Niño and La Niña events can be overlaid on top of a hiatus-related pattern. Global temperatures tend to drop slightly during La Niña, as cooler waters reach the surface of the tropical Pacific, and they rise slightly during El Niño, when those waters are warmer. “The main hiatus in observed warming has corresponded with La Niña conditions, which is consistent with the simulations."

SPACE WEATHER -

REENTRY ALERT: NASA reports that UARS, an atmospheric research satellite the size of a small bus, will re-enter Earth's atmosphere on Sept. 23, plus or minus one day. Not all of the spectacularly-disintegrating spacecraft will burn up in the atmosphere; debris could be scattered along a ground track some 500 miles long. Because of the rapid evolution of UARS's decaying orbit, the location of the debris zone is not yet known. A NASA risk assessment places the odds of a human casualty at 1 in 3,200.

Sunday, September 18, 2011

**Your work is to discover your work
and then with all your heart to give yourself to it.**
Buddha


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.7 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL

Yesterday -
9/17/11 -
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.6 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.4 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

9/16/11 -
5.7 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.7 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
6.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.5 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
6.7 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.5 VANUATU
5.3 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

VOLCANOES -

Alaskan volcano's behavior is a challenge for scientists - Cleveland volcano in Alaska's Aleutian Islands has been in an UNUSUAL low-level eruption for two months, raising the specter of an explosive eruption with little warning, officials at the Alaska Volcano Observatory said on Friday. Cleveland Volcano, located 940 miles southwest of Anchorage, continues to expel lava out its crater part of a low-level eruption that began in mid-July
Satellite imagery shows a lava dome growing inside the volcano's crater. Satellite data also shows continued heat generated from the volcano. So far, there have been no signs of ash clouds. But those could come with little warning, scientists said. "The big thing we're concerned about is an explosive eruption." One worry is that the dome could seal off the crater vent entirely, causing pressure to build until it is released explosively. Or the dome could topple, triggering a molten flow down the mountain that releases gas and ash into the atmosphere while lava and rocks tumble.
While Cleveland is one of Alaska's most active volcanoes — erupting about once a year over the past decade — its long-running lava flow and dome buildup is something different from past behavior. Past eruptions have been mostly brief and explosives, with relatively small ash clouds. Interference with air travel is the most immediate risk posed by Alaska's volcanoes because the peaks lie directly in the flight path used by jets traveling between Asia and the U.S. West Coast. Cleveland's remoteness poses special challenges. Scientists have not been able to station seismic instruments on Cleveland, as they have on volcanoes closer to Anchorage, so they have no real-time data. Instead, they must rely on satellite imagery, which is often disrupted by cloud cover, and on other measurements that can be delayed. Getting seismic equipment on Cleveland has so far proved too costly a proposition. "It's been on our list for years." Such a project could cost up to $1 million.

ITALY - Mount Etna is currently in a period where short bursts of activity, each lasting a few hours, are interspersed with quiet periods lasting several days or weeks. Thirteen eruptive episodes, or paroxysms, had occurred by mid-September 2011. During a typical paroxysm, lava fountains at the New Southeast Crater send flows down the eastern slope of the volcano, often accompanied by a dense ash plume. The center of activity is the New Southeast Crater. A lava flow extends about 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) to the southeast.

HAWAII - Kilauea activity - A lava lake has been present within the Halemaumau Overlook vent over the past week, resulting in night-time glow visible from the Jaggar Museum. The lake, which is deep within the vent cavity and visible by Webcam, dropped to a lower level last weekend during a period deflation, but has since risen back to a higher level as the volcano reinflated.
Effusion within eastern and western lava lakes in Pu‘u ‘O‘o, on Kilauea’s east rift zone, also declined last week but has picked up again since. The resurgence in effusion led to overflows out of the crater and onto Pu‘u ‘O‘o’s east and west flanks. As this activity has developed, the lava lakes, impounded by levees made up of their own chilled lava, have begun to rise up out of the crater. As of Thursday, September 15, the eastern lava lake had stopped overflowing, while the western lava lake continued to repeatedly spawn flows that advanced down the western side of Pu‘u ‘O‘o cone. The overflows were fed from the edge of an active lava lake filling the east side of Pu‘u ‘O‘o crater. As the lake and its containing levees has risen, an ever increasing amount of the east rim of the crater is being buried.

INDIA - Z'boto's smoke is not a volcano, vapor emission. An investigation team deputed by the Geology & Mining department said the apparent volcano-like activity in Vishepu village in Zunheboto district is not volcanic, at least not now, but more of “normal water condensation and evaporation or gas emission due to chemical reactions within the rocks or seasonal periodic change.” The findings of the team, while inconclusive and mostly vague, was explained in a press release. According to the geology team “the phenomena appears to occur in a particular pattern within a transition of low and high elevation, atmospheric pressure, season between summer and autumn, control of bright sunlight and change of climatic conditions.” The team explained further: “based on the above observations, the so-called smoke emission or evaporation could be normal water condensation and evaporation or emission of gas due to chemical reactions within the rocks or seasonal periodic change of atmospheric pressure and climate change.”
On other specifics, the team said technical officers of the department undertook an aerial survey as well as on-spot inspection of the reported phenomena on Khumnubato range southwest of Vishepu village. The team collected rock, soil and water samples for laboratory analysis “for final conclusion." The mountain range comprises sedimentary rocks of mainly “calcareous rich shale, siltstone and sandstone with thick vegetation covers. It is observed that signs of volcanic activities such as emission from hot springs, gas and smoke, panic and evacuations of burrowed animals in the localities, dying of wild animals, birds, insects etc were not at all noticed and may be ruled out for the present case. The water pH indicates basic and shows normal temperature.”

TROPICAL STORMS -

In the Atlantic -
No current tropical storms.

In the Pacific -
-Tropical storm 18w (Roke) was located approximately 180 nm east-southeast of Kadena AB, Japan.

-Typhoon 19w (Sonca) was located approximately 445 nm south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.

Tropical storm Roke is forecast to strike Japan at about 00:00 GMT on September 22.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Pakistani leaders were accused of neglecting victims of floods that swept the country last year and are accused of being slow to respond once again. This year about six million people have been affected so far, with fears some areas will remain submerged for months. Aid agencies are again warning of a disaster and have launched emergency appeals. At least 269 people are already confirmed to have died. The authorities are accused of being months behind schedule in repairing dams and embankments damaged by last year's August floods. Last year, Pakistan's leaders were lambasted for a slow, inefficient response to the massive flood disaster, ITS WORST FLOODS IN LIVING MEMORY. Then, almost every province was affected. This year, the floods are caused by the HEAVIEST RAINS FOR A CENTURY and are focused in Sindh province where the situation is worse than last year.
Critics say that many key lessons simply haven't been learned. Work to repair damaged embankments and flood defences isn't finished. Disaster preparations - including stocks of plastic sheeting for shelter and emergency aid - weren't properly made. The authorities seemed once again taken by surprise. The met office did issue warnings but there was little response, partly because the local authorities have such limited resources. The army is on the ground - but analysts say the size of the deployment is far from adequate. So again, millions of people are suffering. There is growing criticism that the government is not doing enough.
The destruction in Sindh province is once again on a massive scale. Thousands of refugees are streaming to Karachi, Hyderabad and other urban areas unaffected by the floods. More than two million people are suffering from flood-related diseases following the torrential rain. Cases of malaria and diarrhoea are increasing.
At least 7,000 people are being treated for snake bites. Roughly 1.8 million people have left their homes and 750,000 are living in temporary sites. Many others have little or no food or shelter. There is anger that UN aid agencies remain in the forefront of the relief effort - providing health facilities and rations - but government aid is conspicuous by its absence. Many people have been taken into relief camps but many more are fending for themselves as the rains keep coming. "We're on the road, no-one has given us a tent. Our children are already ill and we're worried about the waters rising more."

Friday, September 16, 2011

Quiet today.

**A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving.**
Lao Tzu


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
9/15/11 -
6.2 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
7.2 FIJI REGION
5.4 FIJI REGION
5.2 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
5.4 CUBA REGION
6.0 EAST OF NORTH ISLAND, N.Z.

Minor quakes continue to pepper Southern California - A 3.5-magnitude quake jolted parts of the Southern California area on Thursday morning. The quake was located in Orange County area just 2 miles north of the Newport Coast zones. The quake is part of a series of smaller quakes to strike the area over the last 24 hours. This comes just a day after a magnitude-4 quake hit the Inland Empire on Wednesday morning. "I don't want to alarm people, but we have not had a sizable quake in Southern California for many, many months... I have a friend here from another state who never felt an earthquake and wonders why we are called earthquake country." (map)

TROPICAL STORMS -

In the Atlantic -
Category one Hurricane Maria was located about 640 mi. (1030 km) SW of Cape Race, Newfoundland. A Hurricane Warning was issued for portions of Newfoundland. Coastal flooding is expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Tropical Storm Maria dumped 1 to 3 inches of rain on Bermuda before taking aim at Newfoundland Thursday.

In the Pacific -
-Tropical Storm 18w (Roke) was located approximately 120 nm east of Kadena AB, Japan.

-Tropical storm 19w (Sonca) was located approximately 630 nm east-southeast of Chichi Jima, Japan.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Scientists to create artificial volcano for climate change experiment - Scientists will attempt to pump water up a hose suspended one kilometre off the ground beneath a helium-filled balloon. The test will provide valuable data that could pave the way to a giant geoengineering project in decades to come. The long-term vision is to tether 20 kilometre-long pipes to balloons the size of Wembley stadium.
Light-scattering particles would be pumped high into the atmosphere to reflect the sun's rays and cool the earth. The effect would be similar to that of a volcanic eruption spewing out clouds of sulphate droplets which can have an impact on the climate.
The leader of the three year, £1.6 million Spice project (Stratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Engineering) project, said: ''This is a controversial and potentially alarming subject. 'We're going to try to pump tap water to a height of one kilometre through a pipe as a test of the technology.'' The test will take place on a disused airfield at Sculthorpe, north Norfolk, using a dirigible ''blimp'' balloon of the type commonly used to carry adverts or take photos. Water will be forced up the pipe using an ordinary pressure pump available from hardware stores. After spouting from the top the water will evaporate or fall to the ground as light ''rain''. Measurements and recordings made by the scientists will help shape the next stages of the research.
Constructing artificial volcanoes to alter climate is seen as a ''last resort'' if it proves impossible to bring carbon emissions under control. Pouring 10 million tonnes of material into the stratosphere each using 10 to 20 giant balloons could achieve a 2C global drop in temperature, the scientists believe. Sulphate emissions from the Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines in June 1991 reduced world temperature by 0.5C for two years.
Experts believe particles of clay, salts or metallic oxides suspended in liquid would prove more effective than the sulphates produced by real volcanoes. The aerodynamically designed suspended pipes would probably be sited far out to sea.
A full-scale geoengineering project would involve enormous engineering challenges, a careful analysis of the risks, and the co-operation of governments around the world. Possible hazards included depletion of the ozone layer and unpredictable effects on rainfall. ''We are still decades away from doing this and it's not simply a science decision. There are ethical and governmental decisions around this that are huge. Just because we can do it doesn't mean that we have the right to do it.'' Despite the hurdles the scientists believe the advanced technology needed to make such a project possible is not far away. ''It's tantalisingly close in quite a number of technologies."

**A goal is not always meant to be reached,
it often serves simply as something to aim at.**
Bruce Lee


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
6.0 CUBA REGION
6.2 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
6.0 EAST OF THE NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND

Yesterday -
9/14/11 -
5.2 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
6.1 NEAR ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.8 EAST OF NORTH ISLAND, N.Z.
5.8 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE

9/13/11 -
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 CRETE, GREECE
5.2 NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.6 NEAR WEST COAST OF COLOMBIA

VOLCANOES -

Dust Drifts Across Iceland As Earthquake Swarms Rattle The Reykjanes Ridge. Parts of southern Iceland have been shrouded in a thick haze of dust in recent days as a result of soil erosion and airborne ash particles from recent volcanic eruptions. Satellite imagery on Tuesday showed the dust plume emanating from the southwestern edge of the Vatnajoekull National Park, close to the Grímsvötn volcano which erupted earlier this year. The ash drift is also located a short distance east of Eyjafjallajökul and Katla volcanoes.
Local officials said on Tuesday that a considerable volume of volcanic ash from the Eyjafjallajökul (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011) eruptions, combined with soil erosion, is being carried by strong winds toward the sparsely populated south central coastline. Air pollution levels in the Icelandic capital Reykjavík well exceeded the accepted health limit during Sunday. Meanwhile, scores of earthquakes have been recorded in the Reykjanes ridge region of south-western Iceland during 24 hours. Two earthquake swarms, one on Monday evening and the other early on Tuesday, were recorded by the Icelandic Met Office. Seismic activity is also continuing in the immediate vicinity of Katla. While officials have said that there is no evidence that an eruption is imminent they have acknowledged an UNUSUAL SPIKE in harmonic tremor activity in the area during the past fortnight.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Maria was located about 325 mi. (535 km) SW of Bermuda. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Bermuda.

In the Pacific -
-Tropical storm 18w (Roke) was located approximately 245 nm east-southeast of Kadena AB, Japan.

-Tropical depression 19w was located approximately 740 nm east-southeast of chichi jima, Japan.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

MINNESOTA - On August 18, a lightning strike in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness region of northeastern Minnesota sparked a forest fire. On September 12, the Incident Information System reported that the Pagami Creek Fire had “made an UNPRECEDENTED 16 MILE run to the east. The fire became a plume-driven event and reached in excess of 60,000 acres.” [over 100,000 acres now.]
NASA’s Terra satellite captured the rapid expansion of the fire in just a matter of hours. The photos also show the development of a plume above the fire. Just after noon, the cauliflower-textured plume rises well above the gray-beige smoke plume that blows toward the north-northeast. Not quite two hours later, the cloudy plume has fanned out to the east and northeast, thick enough to completely hide the land and water surfaces below.
Large fires can do more than scorch vegetation and clog the skies with smoke. They can actually create their own weather. By heating the air overhead, fires push the warmed air upward. Mixed with smoke, the air rises high enough for its water vapor to condense and form clouds. If the air rises fast enough, the water vapor forms ice crystals that charge the cloud with electricity, and lightning often results. These fire-provoked thunderstorm clouds are known as pyrocumulonimbus clouds. The EXTREME BEHAVIOR of the fire prompted evacuations in the region. More than 100 firefighters were battling the blaze as of September 13. (satellite photo)
Residents flee as wildfire fight intensifies - Dozens of officials summoned to help subdue the blaze that has consumed more than 100,000 acres of forest crowded into a small conference center to discuss the difficult task facing 500 firefighters. It's complex and dangerous work. The vast landscape means it can take hours for firefighters to reach the flames. Many teams have to paddle canoes to the front lines, then set up makeshift campsites. "We have a challenging situation." The blaze has become MINNESOTA'S BIGGEST BURN IN MORE THAN 50 YEARS.
Many people were packing up their homes, some loading televisions, couches and overstuffed boxes onto trailers designed for snowmobiles and all-terrain vehicles. As they pulled out, they passed a growing brigade of water tankers and support trucks coming in to aid the fight. Others staying behind combed news reports for any new details on a fire that HAS DEFIED PREDICTIONS. The speed of the fire was "pretty much UNPRECEDENTED." Models indicated the fire had only a 0.2% probability of reaching its current size. "What we've had happen DOESN'T FIT ANYTHING WE'VE SEEN HISTORICALLY."
Relief, perhaps only temporary, arrived Wednesday when a hint of winter helped slow the fire. Snow and sleet fell across the region, with temperatures more than 40 degrees lower than last weekend reducing the fire's advance to a crawl, despite continuing strong northwest winds. But the forecast calls for a return of warmer, drier weather into the weekend, with winds coming from the south. That could push the blaze northward, where it would be back into the wilderness area. This morning, the operation to bring the blaze under control will be turned over to an elite group of firefighting managers.
Authorities said that a lightning strike on Aug. 18 started the fire at Pagami Creek, and that the U.S. Forest Service didn't anticipate the high winds and warm weather that spread it south and east early this week.
The Forest Service and the U.S. Weather Service spent part of Wednesday defending their performance in the weeks after the lightning strike. The Forest Service has complained that forecasts since the fire began last month wrongly predicted days of rain that never materialized. The wind forecast was "completely wrong."
But the meteorologist in charge of the Duluth office of the National Weather Service said the rain predictions after the lightning strike called for 30- to 40-percent chances of widespread showers. Such a prediction, means "a lot of areas are not going to get rain." A wind shift on Sunday that helped spread the fire was predicted -- it just occurred about two or three hours earlier than forecast.
The Forest Service in turn defended its decision to conduct a burning operation on forest land between the fire at Pagami Creek and two lakes a couple of miles to the east. They said they conducted the operation after the fire was started by the lightning strike to prevent it from moving northeast and out of the wilderness into an area with cabins. "If they had not done the burnout the fire would most likely be even larger than it is."
Several dozen homes were in a mandatory evacuation area northeast of Isabella, but only 10 had residents living in them this week. Owners of hundreds of seasonal and year-round residences have been advised to leave. Despite the fire's spread, no injuries or serious property damage have been reported. Forest Service workers have been calling people with Boundary Waters entry permits and telling them about the fire and closures. But few have canceled trips. Those who do show up with permits to entry through now-closed access points are directed to entries to the east and northwest of the fire, which are still open. The fire sent a smoky odor and ash hundreds of miles away into parts of northern Michigan and Chicago, Illinois. Ash was falling form the sky in Marquette. The fire also sent ash and smoke to large parts of Wisocnsin.
Firefighters were alo closely watching the eastern edge of the fire, which reached a small portion of the forest knocked down by a major windstorm in 1999. The blowdown left miles of dry timber in its path. "Already severe and erratic fire behavior ...is going to be more severe and more erratic if it's in the blowdown." It will take a "season-ending" rain or snowfall to put the fire completely out.

The Return Of La Niña Is Bad News For Drought Stricken Southern USA - La Niña, one of the primary contributing actors to extreme weather around the globe during the first
half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter. The strong 2010-11 La Niña contributed to record winter snowfall, spring flooding and drought across the United States, as well as other extreme weather events throughout the world, such as heavy rain in Australia and an extremely dry equatorial eastern Africa. “La Niña also often brings colder winters to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, and warmer temperatures to the southern states. This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico”.
Seasonal hurricane forecasters factored the potential return of La Niña into NOAA’s updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, issued in August, which called for an active hurricane season. With the development of tropical storm Nate last week, the number of tropical cyclones entered the predicted range of 14-19 named storms.

HEALTH THREATS -

Listeria outbreak sickens 15 in four states - warning at-risk groups to avoid eating cantaloupe from Colorado's Rocky Ford region. So far the outbreak has sickened 15 people, 1 fatally, in four states: Colorado (11 cases), Nebraska (1), Oklahoma (1), and Texas (2). Cases in other states are under investigation to determine if they are connected.
Trace-back investigations suggest the cantaloupes suspected as the source of the outbreak are from southeastern Colorado's Rocky Ford region, which are harvested in August and September and distributed widely to grocery stores. So far no cantaloupe recalls have been issued. People at risk for severe complications from Listeria infection include older people, those with underlying medical conditions, and pregnant women. Many of the people sickened in the outbreak so far are in the high-risk groups. Among patients with available information, the illnesses began after Aug 15. Most of the sick people are older than 60 and have health conditions that compromise the immune system.
UPDATE - An Indiana resident has been sickened in the multistate Listeria monocytogenes outbreak linked to Colorado-grown cantaloupe, raising the number of cases to 16 and the number of affected states to five.

Some victims of 2001 anthrax attacks still have symptoms - Nearly 10 years after the anthrax letter attacks of 2001, some of those who were sickened are still experiencing symptoms. 22 people were sickened and 5 killed. A 1-year follow-up study of 15 survivors by the CDC, released in 2004, found that 8 of the survivors didn't return to work for more than a year after the attacks, all were under psychiatric care, and most had symptoms such as chronic cough, memory problems, fatigue, depression, anxiety, and hostility. The survivors who were sickest in 2001 are still having problems, including memory trouble and chronic fatigue. Those survivors either had inhalational anthrax or had the pathogen in their bloodstream after contracting a cutaneous infection.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Mini-break - No update tomorrow.

**Beware the barrenness of a busy life.**
Socrates


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.1 NEAR WEST COAST OF COLOMBIA
5.2 NEAR WEST COAST OF COLOMBIA

Yesterday -
9/12/11 -
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.7 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
5.2 TAIWAN REGION

VOLCANOES -

Colombian Volcano Update - In the middle of the country is a stretch where four active volcanoes lie on a line that is only ~50 km long - Ruiz, Tolima, Santa Isabel and Machín. It has been almost 20 years since there has been any volcanic activity in these stretch of four volcanoes, but two are on yellow alert after signs that the dry spell of activity may be coming to an end soon. Ruiz and Machin are both on elevated alert status, but Machín is the more interesting of the two as it has likely been almost 900 years since it last erupted. The volcano is a dome complex that has produced pyroclastic flows and mudflows sourced from explosive eruptions, some of which traveled over 40 km from the domes in the ancestral caldera. There has been an increase in seismic activity - 139 earthquakes in August alone - under Machín for the past year or so, thus necessitating the increased alert status, but little else has changed. These earthquakes have been at two depths, from 1-5 km and 5-14 km below and to the southeast of the main domes. This potential activity has real ramifications in the region around Machín, such as decisions on where to build schools.
Over at the more famous Nevado del Ruiz, seismicity has increased dramatically over the course of 2011 (the 20 year anniversary since its last eruption). During the month of August alone, almost 400 likely volcanically-related earthquakes occurred at Ruiz. Sulfur dioxide measurements are listed as "moderate" but no signs of deformation have occurred at the volcano. All that shaking means that Ruiz is also on yellow alert status, suggesting that an eruption might be in the cards.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Maria was located about 360 mi. (580 km) ESE of the southeastern Bahamas.

In the Pacific -
Tropical depression 18w was located approximately 495 nm east-southeast of Kadena air base, Okinawa.

Tropical Storm Katia has shut down roads and power and led to one death in Ireland and Britain, where residents braced for THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS IN 15 YEARS. Forecasters in both countries said Monday's gusts topped 125km/h as the storm - previously a hurricane as it roared across the Atlantic - made driving, shipfaring and even walking dangerous in broad swaths of Ireland, Scotland and northern England. In north-east England's County Durham, a driver died after a tree fell on a car on the highway. Most ferry services between Ireland and Britain were cancelled, and fishing boats along the Atlantic coasts of Ireland and Scotland were warned to head into port.
Britain's government forecasting service, the Met Office, told the public to be ready for the strongest winds since October 1996, when the tail end of Hurricane Lili killed five Britons and caused an estimated £150 million ($230 million) of damage there. The Met Office said winds were averaging 88km/h while the strongest reported gust so far was 128km/h at a mountain station in North Wales. Gusts in the Northern Ireland border town of Castlederg reached 118km/h. Heavy rainfall hit the north of Ireland and central Scotland. Ireland, which is regularly buffeted by strong Atlantic winds, also warned of exceptionally dangerous driving conditions and the risk of widespread coastal flooding. Towns along Ireland's Atlantic coast last experienced heavy flooding in November 2010. A bridge spanning a bay in County Donegal, northwest Ireland, was closed today as a precaution, while fallen trees obstructed roads in several other parts of the island, including Limerick in the south-west. Engineers were trying to restore power to about 11,000 homes along the Irish Republic's border with Northern Ireland. Another 2000 homes in Dublin lost power because of toppled electricity lines. Ireland and Britain periodically catch the tail-end of Atlantic hurricanes as they travel north-east with the Gulf Stream and weaken into tropical storms.
Authorities in Norway, Sweden and Denmark said they expected gale-force winds to arrive there today.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

PAKISTAN & INDIA - Floods chaos worsens. In Pakistan, Karachi has been hit by heavy rain but the worst of the damage is in Sindh's rural areas. More than 200 people have died and millions remain affected after two weeks of flooding in Pakistan's southern Sindh province. The situation is worsening each day as water levels are rising because of poor drainage. The UN has begun relief work but more rain has been forecast for the area.
Heavy monsoon rains have been battering South Asia for days but southern Pakistan has borne the brunt of the bad weather in recent weeks. Almost one million houses there have been destroyed or damaged and floods have affected nearly 4.2m acres of land. The rain is heaping misery on the hundreds of thousands living out in the open. Many people remain stranded on high ground and rooftops surrounded by flood waters.
Up to 2.5 million children have been affected. One official said children and families, many of them still recovering from last year's devastating floods, are in urgent need of help before the situation worsens. More rain has been forecast for the coming days. "The situation in Sindh is already serious and there will be more flooding and more problems because of these rains." Officials in Badin district are said to have issued a warning to people to vacate their homes and breaches in several canals have forced evacuations in Mirpurkhas town. Pakistan's disaster management authority said it was working to quantify what it called the "huge" losses in cash crops such as sugar cane and cotton.
Meanwhile, in India's eastern Orissa state more than one million have been displaced and 16 killed in floods. About 2,600 villages have been submerged across 19 districts. The army and navy have been called in to help as many villagers are still stranded and dependent on food drops from helicopters. Officials in Orissa, India, said at least 61,000 people had been evacuated to safety and relief and rescue operations had begun. Several rivers, including the Mahanadi, are overflowing and flood waters have severed a number of key road links. Some areas had been cut off due to breaches in river banks and embankments and helicopters were the only way to bring food and water to people stranded there. Officials said the situation was expected to get better soon as rains had stopped and the water level in the Mahanadi and other rivers had begun to recede.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Beset by haze from hundreds of fires, Indonesia tries to trigger rain - An Indonesian agency says there are more than 1,200 "hot spots" in South Sumatra. Fires have created thick blankets of haze over parts of Sumatra, Singapore and Malaysia.
Indonesia has begun cloud-seeding operations over the island of Sumatra in an attempt to trigger rain to put out fires creating thick blankets of haze over parts of Sumatra and neighboring Singapore and Malaysia. Three Spanish-built CASA 212-200 aircraft were deployed on Friday to Sumatra. The rain-inducing operations will continue in three specific areas for the next 90 days.
The number of hot spots in South Sumatra in September has reached 1,241. Hundreds more have been detected on the island of Kalimantan, which is Indonesia's side of Borneo island. South Sumatra has the highest number of hot spots, or areas of high temperatures that could indicate peat or forest fires. Ground operations to extinguish the fires are also ongoing. These include spraying, controlled burning, building trenches to limit the spread of the fire and sluices around the burning peat. Haze from forest and peat fires has been a perennial problem for the region, particularly during the dry months. Slash-and-burn techniques to clear land and droughts have been blamed for the fires in the past. Using uncontrolled fires to clear land is illegal, but enforcement has been an issue. The worst incidence of fires and haze was in 1997 to 1998. The World Wide Fund for Nature estimates over nearly 100 hectares - an area three times the size of the Netherlands - was burned. The Asian Development Bank put the damages and losses at about US $9 billion for Indonesia and its neighboring countries. The fires also had significant impact on Indonesia's wildlife, including orangutans, tigers and elephants and protected national parks.

HEALTH THREATS -

'Contagion': This Will Almost Certainly Occur - an epidemiologist says. The forces that tend to drive the emergence of new diseases - rapid global travel and migration of human and animal populations, a complex and interconnected worldwide food chain, to name only two - have accelerated.The newly released movie 'Contagion' hits these points with near-documentary accuracy and precision. Like SARS, the fictional pathogen in the film begins in Asia and travels rapidly by plane to other parts of the world. At the beginning of the SARS outbreak, in 2003, it was not even clear if the agent was bacterial or viral. Reports from Mexico at the beginning of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic pegged the mortality rate at four percent - staggeringly high for influenza. The need to make decisions in the face of so many unknowns is perhaps the most difficult aspect of public health (medicine too).
Despite some disappointments, Contagion hits much more often than it misses. The science is uncannily true, with rare exceptions. An epidemic like the one described in the film will almost certainly occur, though we can't predict the details. The notion that an agent like Nipah virus, a pathogen shared by bats, pigs, and humans and presumably the model for the virus in the movie, will break out of its niche and cause widespread disease is very believable. It is easy to forget about public health and the threat of emerging infectious diseases. Despite millions of cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide, many saw the H1N1 pandemic as a dud. When public health, like public security, is doing its job well, nothing happens, and this invisibility undermines its support. At a time when public health expenditures can, in all seriousness, be called "discretionary" by politicians arguing for deficit reduction at the expense of public health, we need to be anything but complacent.

Positive Salmonella sample prompts recall of more ground turkey -Cargill is recalling 185,000 more pounds of ground turkey products produced at its Cargill Meat Solutions facility in Springdale, Arkansas, after tests on a product sample suggested they may be contaminated with the same strain of Salmonella Heidelberg that earlier this summer was linked to a multistate outbreak that has sickened at least 111 people in 31 states. So far they aren't aware of any illnesses linked to the latest batch of recalled meat. Recalled products include 16-ounce chubs, fresh ground turkey trays, and fresh ground turkey patties that were produced on Aug 23, 24, 30, and 31 and bear the establishment number "P-963" inside the USDA inspection mark. They were distributed nationally to retail outlets.
---Cantaloupe suspected in multistate Listeria outbreak - Colorado health officials, who have been investigating an unusually high number of Listeria cases over the past few months, announced recently that nine cases are linked to a multistate outbreak and that preliminary investigation findings suggest cantaloupe is the likely source. Colorado's confirmed cases are from nine different counties. Patient ages range from the 30s to the 90s, with an average age of 84 and the majority of patients women. Colorado typically sees only about 10 listeriosis cases each year. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is coordinating a multistate investigation along with the Food and Drug Administration, the USDA, and state and local health partners.Though cantaloupe is suspected and not yet confirmed as the outbreak source, people at high risk for Listeria infections, such as older people and those with underlying medical conditions, should avoid it and other possible sources of Listeria, including deli meats that aren't reheated to 165ºF, refrigerated pate or meat spreads, refrigerated smoked seafood, and soft cheeses such as queso fresco unless made with pasteurized milk.
---Internet survey suggests 50% effectiveness for seasonal 2010-11 flu vaccine - Based solely on input from an online survey, a team of researchers determined that the 2010-11 flu vaccine was 52% effective in preventing influenza-like illness.

Monday, September 12, 2011

A breath detector may find disaster victims - Scientists say they have devised sensors to detect breath and sweat that one day could locate survivors buried under buildings hit by an earthquake or a bomb blast. The sensors sniff out metabolites, the gassy by-products of breakdown mechanisms, which come from breathing, sweating and urinating. Dogs can be trained to detect these compounds, but are expensive to train, need frequent rest periods and both animal and trainer are exposed to danger during search operations. "A device could be used in the field without laboratory support. It could monitor signs of life for prolonged periods and be deployed in large numbers."
The tests sought to duplicate the conditions of a real disaster, in which eight volunteers spent five six-hour days in the simulation of a collapsed, glass-clad, reinforced-concrete building. The compounds secreted by the volunteers body interacted with materials in the debris, and changed with conditions such as humidity, heat, and wind strength and direction, making the detection process much more difficult. The sensors rapidly detected human-generated carbon dioxide and ammonia in plumes of air that wafted through gaps in the "rubble". The devices also picked up the scent of other volatile organic compounds cast off by human bodies, such as acetone and isoprene. Intriguingly, there was a marked decrease in ammonia levels when the participants were asleep, but researchers could not explain why.

**Simplicity is the key to brilliance.**
Bruce Lee


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or stronger.

Yesterday -
9/11/11 -
6.0 VANUATU

VOLCANOES -

INDONESIA - Evacuation Plans Prepped as Mount Tambora Alert Level Is Raised, Mount Lokon Still a Concern. Provincial authorities raised the alert level of Mount Tambora to the second-highest available as observers noted an increase of volcanic activity in the volatile mountain, following a series of eruptions and tremors over the weekend. “On August 30, we recorded seven volcanic earthquakes and since Sept. 8 the frequency of the quakes rose substantially, to between 12 and 16 per day." A team of observers has been immediately deployed to Mount Tambora.
The volcano, which was the site of the world’s deadliest eruption on record, showed no apparent visual signs of any upcoming eruption, but data collected on mechanical instruments gave cause for concern. “We still hope Mount Tambora’s alert level will not increase further. We hope we can lower the status of the volcano. Let us all pray everything will return to normal." The heightened alert status meant an eight-kilometer exclusion zone was being imposed. “We fear there will be toxic gas as a direct result of the increased activity." There are four villages in the two subdistricts that are about eight kilometers from the crater.
Several organizations are on stand-by, including the National Disaster Mitigation Agency, the National Search and Rescue Agency, and the country’s Armed Forces, which have already deployed officials to several response stations in the two subdistricts. Two main evacuation routes for people in the four villages have also been identified.
The volcano’s April 10, 1815, eruption killed more than 90,000 people, including some who died from famine and disease in the aftermath of the event. It is estimated to have had a Volcanic Explosivity Index value of seven, the only such explosion since the Hatepe eruption in New Zealand in the year 180, and only the fifth in human history. Classified as a “SUPERCOLOSSAL EVENT,” Tambora’s 1815 eruption ejected immense amounts of volcanic dust into the upper atmosphere, significantly impacting the global climate for many years afterward. In Indonesia, the volcano’s roar could be heard more than 800 miles away.
Meanwhile, in North Sulawesi, Mount Lokon continues to be a concern, two months after it first erupted. From midnight to 6 a.m. on Sunday, Lokon erupted seven times, sending debris up to 350 meters from the edge of the crater. The observation post also recorded one tectonic quake and two volcanic quakes on Sunday morning. On Saturday, observers recorded more than 20 volcanic quakes. “The activity of Mount Lokon is still not yet back to normal." People there were still being warned against returning home.

HAWAII - Lava fills crater floor at Puu Oo. Activity within Kilauea volcano continued with typical dynamism Saturday as the lava lake at the summit rose and fell and the eruption at Puu Oo remained active with lava possibly overflowing the east rim of the crater. Eruptive activity continued at Kilauea’s summit vent with the lava lake’s levels rising slowly until midnight then rapidly deflating. At Puu Oo cone, a torrent of lava that broke out near the northeaster edge of the crater on Friday continued to fill the crater floor. The sbservatory noted that it is likely that some lava overtopped the east rim of the crater but this has not yet been confirmed. In the lower east rift zone, an earthquake of less than 1.5 magnitude was instrumentally detected. (photos)
Kilauea Volcano Crater Collapse Time-Lapse Video.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Atlantic -
-Tropical storm Maria was located about 115 mi (180 km) NNE of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible, especially over higher terrain, in the Virgin Islands...Puerto Rico...and the extreme northern Leeward Islands through today.

-Tropical depresion Nate was located about 30 mi (50 km) SSW of Tuxpan, Mexico. The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico.

In the Pacific -
Tropical depression 18w was located approximately 540 nm southeast of Kadena air base, Okinawa.

Seven of the 10 workers who went missing last week found alive after they evacuated an oil platform in Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Two of the workers were found dead and one was still missing. The survivors, meanwhile, were being airlifted to a hospital. The 10 workers - four liftboat crew members, three employees of the Texas-based company Geokinetics and three independent contractors - left the Trinity II platform on Thursday to escape bad weather caused by Tropical Storm Nate, which has since weakened to a tropical depression. The workers had boarded a liftboat and when the ship became disabled, they then boarded a life raft. Though rescue efforts were initially hampered by the inclement weather, maritime search teams had been scouring the waters between the Mexican-owned platform and the Tabasco coast.