Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster updates.

**Live life fully while you are here. Experience everything. Take care of yourself and your friends. Have fun, be crazy, be weird. Go wild. Screw up. You're going to anyway, so you might as well enjoy the process.**
Anthony Robbins

LARGEST QUAKES so far today, 6.0 or larger -
None.

Earthquake swarm in New Brunswick community starting to settle down - The mayor of a small village in western New Brunswick says the earth - and residents' nerves - are calming down following a recent swarm of earthquakes. While the area is still experiencing tremors, they are nowhere near the strength of a 3.3 magnitude quake that shook homes and broke windows on Feb. 9.
"I think there's somewhat of a calming down over the last couple of weeks. It's almost like the unexpected doesn't happen when you have all the equipment here to monitor everything." Four seismic recording instruments were installed about 10 days ago and they have plotted about 30 minor tremors since then. "This gives us more data that we can work with to try and come up with some answers as to where the possible fault is that's generating the earthquakes and maybe provide some answers on a possible mechanism on what's causing these earthquakes to occur."
The equipment will remain in place for a few months, and scientists would like to get roughly 100 to 200 seismic events to have enough data. It's not possible to say if the tremors will continue. "Each swarm of activity is unique and these fluctuations in the size of the events and the frequency of the events, really it's not possible for us to come up with answers as to what's going to happen in the future."
An earthquake swarm occurs when numerous quakes happen in the same area over a short period of time. The McAdam area experienced a succession of earthquakes in the days before and since the 3.3 magnitude event, which broke windows and shook items off shelves.
This month's earthquakes were much stronger than those experienced in 2012 and again in 2015, but residents are somewhat reassured that the strongest quakes were centred northwest of the village. Asimilar earthquake swarm was recorded in neighbouring Maine about 10 years ago. Earthquake swarms may be occurring more often than we realize, but this one was felt because it was so close to homes in McAdam.

VOLCANOES -
Powerful volcano eruption in the Philippines - Footage has emerged from Philippines of the Bulusan Volcano eruption this week.

TROPICAL STORMS -

* In the Southern Pacific -
Tropical cyclone Winston is located approximately 404 nm southwest of Suva, Fiji.
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Cyclone Winston: Fears for isolated Fiji communities as death toll jumps - The death toll in Fiji has jumped to 42 amid fears for remote areas and islands yet to be reached by relief teams, days after a devastating cyclone. Cyclone Winston, thought to be one of the strongest storms to hit the Southern Hemisphere, left 8,500 sheltering in evacuation centres.
Teams are still being deployed. Officials said they met "grim images of devastation" on reaching Koro island. The Red Cross has warned that the toll could still rise further. The powerful cyclone, which struck last weekend, brought winds of over 320km/h (200mph), torrential rain and waves of up to 12m (40ft), flattening many buildings in parts of the main Viti Levu island and Koro islands.
It has been described by the Fiji Broadcasting Corporation as the worst to ever hit the country. The damage in remote outlying areas - so far seen only from the air - is reported to be especially bad. Pictures taken from Koro on Tuesday showed battered and demolished homes on the island Communication with many smaller and remote islands in the Pacific nation of 900,000 people have been down since the cyclone hit.
The death toll numbers "will continue to change as we have better access to information and establish communications". Officials are also warning of the threat of dengue and zika spreading, as both viruses are carried by mosquitoes which can breed in stagnant water left by the storm. The government has also advised families to bury or cremate the dead as soon as possible because of a lack of facilities for storing bodies.
Power is gradually being restored in the the main centres but mortuaries are still without electricity. Though the devastation has been described as "catastrophic", officials have also said the destruction could have been far worse had the storm not changed direction at the last minute, sparing the capital Suva its full impact.

Drone footage shows the extent of damage left by Cyclone Winston in Fiji over the weekend. Houses are seen to be destroyed and trees are strewn over the ladnscape after the storm brought power and communication lines down. Officials say at least 29 people have died as authorities and aid workers race to provide emergency supplies to survivors.

Cyclone Winston: Frustration grows as help fails to reach devastated communities in Fiji - There is growing frustration among Fijians who say they are yet to receive any help after a devastating cyclone struck the country on the weekend. More than 1,000 homes were destroyed in Rakiraki, a major town on the north coast of Fiji's main island Viti Levu, and 500 have been partially damaged. The town looks like a bomb had gone off, with barely a building left unscathed. Despite the devastation, the only sign of any aid relief is coming from the business community, which has handed out free cartons of water along Viti Levu's north coast. Authorities are yet to make contact with smaller islands impacted by the cyclone.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Three dead as tornadoes hit southern US - At least 7 tornadoes lashed Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida Tuesday, destroying homes and businesses. The deaths occurred when mobile homes were destroyed in Louisiana and Mississippi, officials said. Meteorologists said the storm system could hit Alabama and Georgia later on Wednesday.
Two people died at a trailer park in Convent, southern Louisiana, where 90% of the homes were destroyed. "These travel trailers were picked up, thrown a considerable distance and just mangled." The governor said it was a "minor miracle" that more people had not been killed because most of the trailers were occupied when the storm hit.
At least 30 people were taken to hospital in the state, most of them from the trailer park. The other death occurred near the southern Mississippi town of Purvis. A tornado was also reported in the northern Florida town of Pensacola. Local media reported that three buildings in an apartment complex had been badly damaged and thousands of people in the region were without power.

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -

There are very few periods in New England weather when the line “the weather’s been anything but typical” doesn’t apply. Even by this region's standards, the recent temperature changes have been extremely extreme. Researchers would need to do a statistical analysis of the most recent fluctuations to see just how out of the ordinary they are, but some research shows the temperature extremes, especially on the warmer side, are becoming more frequent.
Ten days ago, temperatures in Boston reached record cold levels we haven’t seen in half a century. This was followed a few days later by readings in the 50s. This past weekend, temperatures were averaging 10 to 15 degrees outside the typical range. Over half of the days this month have seen temperatures over 10 degrees above or below average: in other words, more evidence of wild swings. Much of New England has seen a similar pattern this winter.
In 2013, a study published looked at recent trends in winter temperature extremes in Eastern China and their relationship with the Arctic Oscillation, or AO, and El Nino/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. The study found that, since the mid 1980s, parts of China were seeing more extremes during the winter, some of which may be connected to both oscillations. This year, both ENSO and the AO have been at the more extreme ends of the scale. There is likely a connection between what we have observed this winter and those atmospheric players.

This Incredible 'Boiling River' Is A Scientific Enigma - Hidden deep in the Amazon, this river "is a reminder that there are still great wonders to be discovered."
Located in a forest region called Mayantuyacu, the sacred boiling river, which is guarded by a shaman, flows hot - between 120 and 196 degrees Fahrenheit - for almost 4 miles and is about as wide as a two-lane road. While boiling rivers do exist in the world, they are usually found close to active volcanos. This river is especially remarkable because it runs more than 400 miles from the nearest active volcano - the only non-volcanic river known to boil on Earth.

SPACE WEATHER -

Large space rock burns up over Atlantic - The biggest fireball since the Chelyabinsk explosion has plunged through the atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean. The event, which has only just come to light, occurred off the coast of Brazil at 13:55 GMT on 6 February. As it burned up, the space rock released the equivalent of 13,000 tonnes of TNT.
This makes it the most powerful event of its kind since an object exploded over Chelyabinsk in Russia in 2013. That blast was much bigger, releasing the equivalent of 500,000 tonnes of TNT. More than 1,000 people were injured in that incident on 15 February three years ago, most from flying glass from shattered windows.
But the fireball over the Atlantic probably went unnoticed; it burnt up about 30km above the ocean surface, 1,000km off the Brazilian coast. Measurements suggest that about 30 small asteroids (between 1m and 20m in size) burn up in the Earth's atmosphere every year. Because most of the Earth's surface is covered by water, most of these fall over the ocean and do not affect populated areas.

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Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster updates.

**Plans are nothing; planning is everything.**
Dwight D. Eisenhower

LARGEST QUAKES so far today, 6.0 or larger -
None.

Oklahoma - Earthquakes stronger this year, but quake count slightly less. This year, seven earthquakes of 4.0 magnitude or greater have occurred in the state. Through the same time last year, four earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 occurred. Since January 1 of 2016 until February 19 Oklahoma has recorded 339 earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 or greater. Through the same period last year the state had recorded 389 quakes. The strongest earthquake this year was a 5.1 that occurred February 13 in northern Oklahoma.

Major County, Oklahoma, records 35 quakes over previous week, including the rattling 5.1

VOLCANOES -
Mt. Bulusan spews 500-m high ash column - Philippines- Mt. Bulusan in Sorsogon province spewed a 500- meter high grayish ash column around 5 p.m. Monday, drifting toward villages in the towns of Juban and Irosin.

Indonesia’s Mount Sinabung Eruption Captured in Time Exposure - Photos taken on February 21, 2016 show the eruption of the Mount Sinabung volcano in Sumatra.

PHOTOS: Nicaragua's Momotombo Volcano still putting on a show - By all appearances, Nicaragua's formerly sleeping giant Momotombo isn't going back to bed just yet.

Taking on the world's most dangerous volcano - Nyiragongo is a cone volcano that dominates the sky above the city of Goma, located in the Democratic Republic of Congo, in eastern Africa. It’s an active mountain that erupted in 2002; with the resulting lava flow destroying a large area of Goma and nearly shutting down the airport.

Volcano Activity Worldwide - Alaid Volcano (Northern Kuriles): New thermal anomalies have been detected from the volcano during the past days via satellite data. It is not known whether or not a new eruption is underway at the volcano which is rarely visited, but one of the most active ones in the area. Its most recent eruption from Oct 2015 to January this year produced spectacular lava flows that flowed into the sea and enlarged the uninhabited island. The Aviation Color Code was raised again to yellow. Colima Volcano (Western Mexico): As had been suspected last week, a new (still small) lava dome has appeared inside the volcano's summit crater. During an overflight on 19 Feb, it was seen to be approx. 25 m in diameter and 10 m tall.

TROPICAL STORMS -

* In the Southern Pacific -
Tropical cyclone Winston is located approximately 314 nm west-southwest of Suva, Fiji. Winston is forecast to weaken rapidly.
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At least 21 deaths had been reported by late Monday Fiji time as the island nation slogged through the daunting early stages of recovery from ferocious Cyclone Winston, the strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Southern Hemisphere. Officials expect the death toll to rise when they're finally able to reach outlying islands that were hit hardest by the powerful storm, and it would not be surprising if Winston ends up being the deadliest and costliest natural disaster in Fiji's history.
Fiji's deadliest tropical cyclone in recorded history was Category 3 Cyclone Eric of 1985, which made a direct hit on the capital of Suva, killing 25. [29 now officially reported killed by Cyclone Winston.] Since satellite records began in 1970 (with high-quality satellite images only available since 1990), just eleven Catergory 5's (including Winston) have been observed anywhere in the South Pacific east of Australia. Winston is the strongest of these.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Extreme Weather Strikes Israel as Sea of Galilee Rises, Negev Floods - Following a week of unusually mild weather, winter returned to Israel this weekend as a large rainstorm struck from the north to the south, causing floods in the desert and dropping snow on the mountains in yet another round of apocalyptic weather in the Middle East.
The storm made itself felt in every part of the country. In the north, Mount Hermon was closed to visitors and skiers due to heavy snowfall, fierce winds, and heavy fog. The Sea of Galilee, which is at a near-constant risk of depletion, fortuitously rose by 1.5 centimeters.
In the southern Negev region, heavy rain has caused dangerous flash floods, washing out roads and stranding those unlucky enough to be caught in the storm. Ten hikers were rescued near the Ramon Crater by the volunteer Har Hanegev search and rescue unit.
The Ein Gedi area, near the Dead Sea, was particularly hard hit, with several schools closed on Monday following flash floods. Another rescue team was called in to extract a number of cars which had become stuck in the nearby Arugot Stream.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

Severe droughts explain the mysterious fall of the Maya - We might finally know why the Maya abandoned their impressive limestone cities about 1,000 years ago. Thousands of ancient Maya cities are spread across southern Mexico's Yucatan peninsula, Belize and Guatemala. It’s likely that still more Maya ruins lie hidden beneath the region’s thick tropical forest. The first wave of droughts had finished off the Maya in the south, it looks like the second wave may have brought on their demise in the north. After this second wave of droughts there was to be no real recovery for the Maya. The droughts in the 9th Century had certainly been severe. But the 11th Century brought the worst drought that the region had seen for fully 2,000 years - a “megadrought”.

Drought-related harmful effects likely to spread eastern side of America in near future.

Without a 'March miracle,' drought-like conditions will continue in Southern California - Southern Californians can expect dry conditions and above-average heat this week as a stubborn high-pressure system continues to block the heavily anticipated El Niño rainstorms that weather officials warned of over the winter. Though experts predicted that the Pacific warming phenomenon known as El Niño could bring consecutive downpours to Southern California between January and March - now some say as late as April - nothing of the sort has occurred since the first week of the year.
That’s because a high-pressure system hovering over the Eureka, Calif., area has deflected most of the moisture and cooler temperatures that would flow south to Los Angeles and beyond. Downtown L.A. has receive only 4.99 inches of rain since Oct. 1. The historical average by the end of February is 10 inches.
This February has also been more than eight degrees warmer than its historical average. The current pattern is like the drought pattern from these last four years. “If March doesn’t come through, and April and May are typically drier months, we might be out of time by then.”
Southern California needs a “March miracle” to avoid a fifth year of drought-like conditions locally. But there is a silver lining for Californians. Though the high-pressure system may be blocking storms in Southern California, vital rain and snow is being steered toward the Sierra Nevada, which is seeing its highest snowpack in years.

Mystery wind drought that cut US wind power in 2015 is back - There’s a still in the air – and it is bad news for North America’s wind turbines. Last year saw the lowest average wind speeds in half a century across much of North America. There were long periods of motionless air across most of the Great Plains and the West, stretching through to Texas and Florida, and from Mexico to Canada.
And weather watchers say the wind drought was back again in the early weeks of 2016. In much of the American West, average wind speeds were a fifth below normal in the first half of last year. As a result, the electricity output of US wind farms fell 6 per cent despite their generating capacity increasing by 9 per cent. “The possibility of a prolonged wind drought is on the minds of many in the wind industry."
The immediate cause, say meteorologists, is a large ridge of high pressure that formed over the north-eastern Pacific and the western half of North America in mid-2013. This diverted wind-bringing storms far north into the Arctic. “The ridge was remarkable for its longevity, lasting from June 2013 through to mid-2015. It is the strongest in records dating back to 1960."
The still air in 2015 predated the formation of the current El Niño. Most meteorologists believe that the persistent high pressure is at least partly a result of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a fluctuation that is similar to El Niño but lasts for decades. In the past two years, the oscillation has switched to its “warm” phase, meaning that the wind drought could stick around through 2016.

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Huge parts of the ocean are humming. Scientists have puzzled over the source of the sound for several years. Huge clouds of small fish and crustaceans and squid tend to hide in the dark, deep water during the day, and rise up nearer the surface to feed at night. This happens in all oceans in the mesopelagic zone, a fish-rich area of little light that stretches from about 660 feet beneath the sea's surface to depths of around 3,300 feet.
It took hydrophones in the Pacific to reveal that the hum actually accompanies that daily rise and fall of the fish migration. Why the noise? Scientists can only speculate. It could be that the creatures "are truly, actively communicating - potentially to initiate migration." In other words, maybe the buzz is just a signal that "it's time to go." But there's another more mundane possibility.

Unpredictable February weather continues to hit Toronto - February has already been a month of extremes, and with a winter storm on the way in Toronto this week, it is still full of surprises. It’s been a shock to many, lulled by a warmer than usual winter that has caused many to think snow was a thing of the past. It is not just people who have enjoyed the balmy weather, also wildlife.
“Things like white-tailed deer and rabbits have a very easy go of it this year." This month’s up and downs have been so unusual, even those who know weather best have been caught a little off guard. “I’ve been in this business a half a century and I’ve never seen a February like this year,” said a senior climatologist with Environment Canada. Feb. 3 was 16 C while Feb. 14 saw record lows. “Over 175 years of records there’s never been a warmer day and then we had the coldest in 22 years on Valentine’s Day."
Overall though, El Niño has meant a warmer than usual winter and relief for water birds, many of which died over the last two winters.

Supercomputer quietly puts U.S. weather resources back on top - Three years ago European models delivered a blow to the U.S. weather apparatus. The European weather models accurately predicted the path and strength of the devastating Hurricane Sandy that hit the New Jersey coastline and caused $65 billion in damage.
Now, the U.S. is on the rebound with this monumental supercomputer that collects, processes and analyzes billions of observations from weather satellites, weather balloons, airplanes, buoys and surface stations from around the world to help meteorologists make better weather forecasts.
The brand-new Cray supercomputer — designed, owned and operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) — processes 3 quadrillion calculations per second. You'd need about 12,500 high-end laptops to get close to that kind of power. Still, the supercomputer is merely the 18th fastest in the U.S. and 42nd fastest in the world. NOAA's purchase stemmed partly from competition from the top European weather model — ECMWF (European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting). It predicted Sandy's now infamous and unusual left hook in 2012 days before the top American model — the GFS (Global Forecast System). The one-two punch pushed the U.S. to invest $44.5 million to develop better forecasts. NOAA installed the Reston computer and its backup twin in Orlando, a safe distance away in case of a natural disaster, late last year.
Together, they provide a 10-fold increase in computer power over previous systems and put American forecasting systems back on par or even above European ones. "It's a huge improvement over what they had...it was a "national embarrassment." In the months ahead, the supercomputer will focus on severe weather, storm surge and river forecasting, just in time for spring's flood season and summer's hurricane season.
The supercomputer showed its prowess last month, predicting an East Coast blizzard with great accuracy days before the storm. That's only a glimpse of what's to come. "We expect to see better forecasts for hurricanes, severe weather, floods and other extreme events this year."

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS

FEARS OF ZIKA, DENGUE OUTBREAKS ON FIJIAN ISLANDS STILL CUT-OFF AFTER CYCLONE - There are fears the death toll could rise in the nation of 900,000 people when communication resumes with the smaller islands hit by Cyclone Winston.. Aerial footage of outlying islands showed whole villages flattened and flooded after Winston's destructive winds, up to 325 kph (200 mph), tore through the archipelago of 300 islands. Thousands of Fijians live in tin or wooden shacks in low-lying coastal areas.

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Monday, February 22, 2016

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster updates.

**When you relinquish the spectacular, you are rewarded with the quieter joy of the ordinary.**
Eric Weiner

LARGEST QUAKES so far today, 6.0 or larger -
None

2/21/16 - 2/18/16 -
None 6.0 or larger.

2/17/16 -
6.0 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA

2/16/16 -
6.1 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE

2/15/16 -
6.0 TONGA

2/14/16 - 2/13/16
None 6.0 or larger.

2/12/16
6.2 SUMBA REGION, INDONESIA

New Zealand - No damage reported after 'severe' 5.0 quake rattles Wellington. A strong earthquake was felt across the lower North and upper South Islands on the 5 year anniversary of the Canterbury quake in which 185 died.

Japan - Few hospitals ready for post-Nankai Trough quake with support plans. Only 8% of about 600 responding hospitals that are likely to be affected by a predicted massive earthquake in the Nankai Trough running south of Japan’s mainland have created plans that would make it easier to receive outside support in the wake of disasters.
The findings come five years after the magnitude-9.0 earthquake and massive tsunami devastated areas of northeastern Japan in 2011. The quake-tsunami disaster damaged some 300 hospitals, or nearly 80% of the total, in Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures.

VOLCANOES -
Rare eruption of Iceland's most famous hot spring Geysir - The Great Geysir, Iceland's most famous hot spring, which has given the name to geysers all over the world, erupted yesterday. This rare event was captured on camera.
Earthquakes have been shown to revive the activity of Geysir and records from 1630 show that it erupted violently many times that year. Until 1896 however the hot spring was almost dormant before an earthquake that year caused eruptions to begin again, several times a day. In 1935 a man-made channel was dug through the rim which caused a revival in activity, but gradually the channel became clogged with silica making eruptions once again rare. In 1981 the channel was cleared and eruptions were simulated on special occasions by the additon of soaps, something later discouraged because of environmental concerns.
An earthquake in the year 2000 revived the geyser again and an eruption took place for two days straight, reaching 122 metres in height. In the last decade, eruptions have decreased considerably and it is now considered almost inactive.

Mount Paektu - Scientists say that North Korea’s nuclear program could cause a volcanic eruption of Mount Paektu, the country’s highest mountain.
The underground test site is 115km from the volcano and an explosion could increase pressure in the magma chamber beneath the 2744m mountain, driving molten rock upwards. “An underground nuclear explosion test near an active volcano constitutes a direct threat to the volcano."
North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test last month and although the blast was not as large as would be expected from the bomb that North Korea claimed to have set off, it still produced an earthquake measuring 5.1. The team calculated that an earthquake of 7.0, which has been recorded after nuclear tests in the United States, could create sufficient pressure to cause an eruption. Mount Paektu last erupted in 1903 and its eruption in AD946 was one of the biggest of the past 2,000 years. Between 2002 and 2006, scientists reported an increase in earthquakes and ground swelling around Mount Paektu, suggesting that the magma was shifting.

TROPICAL STORMS -

* In the Southern Pacific -
Tropical cyclone Winston is located approximately 337 nm west of Suva, Fiji.

Cyclone Winston - the Southern Hemisphere's Strongest Storm on Record. Mighty Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Winston smashed through the islands of Fiji Friday night and Saturday morning with top sustained winds estimated at 185 mph. These winds vaulted Winston into a three-way tie as the second strongest landfalling tropical cyclone in world recorded history.
Winston began its march at Category 5 strength through the Fiji Islands beginning at 18 UTC (1 pm EST) Friday. At that time, Winston had 165 mph winds as it moved westwards over the small Fiji island of Vanua Balavu (population 1,200). The island's airport was in the western eyewall of Winston, and at 18 UTC measured 10-minute average winds of 106 mph (roughly equivalent to 120 mph winds using the U.S. 1-minute averaging time.)
Winston continued to intensify, then crashed ashore on the Fiji island of Koro (population 4,500) at peak strength - sustained winds of 185 mph - near 02 UTC Saturday (9 pm EST Friday.) This is the second strongest landfall by any tropical cyclone, globally, in recorded history. Only Super Typhoon Haiyan's 190 mph winds at landfall in 2013 in Samar, Philippines have been rated higher.
After likely demolishing most of Koro with a long period of sustained winds of EF4 tornado strength, Winston weakened slightly, to 180 mph winds, while its northern (weaker) eyewall brushed the south coast of Fiji's second largest island, Vanua Levu. The city of Nambouwalu on the south coast of Vanua Levu reported 10-minute sustained winds of 121 mph at 06 UTC Saturday (roughly equivalent to Category 4 winds of 135 mph using the U.S. 1-minute averaging time.) Winston then wobbled more to the west-southwest, possibly due to interaction with the high terrain of the two largest islands of Fiji.
Maintaining winds of 180 mph, Winston slammed ashore along the northeast coast of Fiji's main island of Viti Levu in Rakiraki, a district of close to 30,000 people, near 07 UTC Saturday. The eye of Winston travelled westwards along the north coast of Viti Levu for two hours, pounding the entire north coast of the island with the strongest part of the storm, the southern eyewall. When Winston finally emerged from the island near 09 UTC Saturday, the storm was slightly weaker, but still had Category 5 winds of 160 mph.
At that time, the edge of Winston's south eyewall moved over the second largest city in Fiji, Lautoka (population 80,000). The top sustained winds at the Lautoka tide station were 83 mph, gusting to 110 mph. These 10-minute average winds imply that at least Category 2 hurricane conditions (95 - 100 mph 1-minute averaged winds) were likely experienced there (thanks go to wunderground member Carnivorous for this link.) Damage to Fiji is going to be severe to catastrophic, but it will be several days before the true scope of the destruction is realized.
Winston will likely weaken to Category 4 strength and head southwards during the remainder of the weekend, with no other islands in its path, thankfully. The cyclone may restrengthen slightly on Monday before a more significant weakening takes hold. (storm video at link)

Death toll from ferocious Fiji cyclone hits 18 as aid sent to islands. Authorities were still having trouble communicating with some islands, including places like Koro Island which suffered some of the worst damage. And more than 6,000 residents across Fiji were staying in emergency shelters after their homes were broken or swamped.
Winds from Cyclone Winston, which tore through Fiji over the weekend, reached 177 miles (285 kilometers) per hour, making it the strongest storm in the Southern Hemisphere since record-keeping began. Getting emergency supplies to the group's far-flung islands and remote communities was the government's top priority. Home to 900,000 people, Fiji has more than 100 inhabited islands. "The logistics of getting supplies and equipment to remote communities is difficult. Some have lost their jetties and it's uncertain if airstrips are able to be landed on."

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Winds Gusted to Near-Hurricane Levels in Chicago Area - After Friday's wind storm, the Chicago area is continuing to recover from damage inflicted by the 72 mile-per-hour winds ripped through the city and shredded roofs, windows, trees and fences.

Seattle, Washington, drowned its rain record Friday, setting an all-time high for wettest rainy season ever. They’ve had nearly 2 feet of rain, or 22.97 inches, since Dec. 1, breaking the previous 22.77-inch record set in the same time of year in 1998-99.
The record is for the period from December through February, called meteorological winter because it typically is the coldest stretch of the year. With more rain in the forecast, and more than a week left in the month, the old record is sure to sink even further.
After all the predictions of a monster El Niño this year, expectations were for a warmer, drier winter. Warmer came through in spades, with temperatures in Seattle so far during the month of February running about 5 degrees above normal.

In Colorado, unlike almost every other state in the country, it is illegal to collect the rain that falls from the sky into a rain barrel. Several Denver residents support a bill at the General Assembly that is scheduled to be heard in Committee on Monday. The bill would permit Coloradans to use no more than 2 rain barrels collecting a maximum of 110 gallons of rainwater.
A similar measure was introduced last year but failed after some Republican senators expressed concern that collecting rainwater could deplete the water supply of rivers downstream and for the rural residents who rely on them.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Disruptive snow, rain threaten eastern US, Great Lakes next week - A winter storm is expected to track from the southern Plains, threatening to unleash a large swath of disruptive snow and rain across the eastern United States and Great Lakes this week.
The springlike start to this weekend has not put an end to the risk of wintry weather in a part of the eastern U.S. and Great Lakes when a winter storm arrives this week. Latest indications point toward the worst of the winter storm impacting the eastern-third of the U.S. on Wednesday into Thursday.
Ahead of the main storm, a weaker system with rain will track from the Ohio Valley to the mid- Atlantic to end the weekend. It is not out of the question for the rain grazing places from the Pocono Mountains in Pennsylvania to far southern New England to end as wet snowflakes.
Another system will spread rain and thunderstorms across the South early in the new week, while the more potent winter storm for the eastern U.S. takes shape in the southern Plains. "[The storm next Wednesday and Thursday] has the potential to be disruptive to travel because it could cover a large area with a wide variety of weather. How strong the storm becomes will determine the amount of wind and extent of coastal flooding. Given the timing of the storm, the highest astronomical tides related to the full moon will occur a couple of days ahead of the storm. Tides, however, will still be higher than average."
Regardless of which scenario pans out this week, colder air will sweep into the eastern U.S. in the storm's wake. An even harsher blast of arctic air may then sweep from the Midwest to Northeast next weekend or early in the following week.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

More severe drought is expected to hit Thailand between March and April, as authorities have already declared 11 provinces disaster zones due to water scarcity.

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS

Zika Virus Enabled By Shoddy Water, Sewer Systems - Shoddy water and sewer infrastructure is abetting the spread of the Zika virus, which has exploded throughout Latin America in the past year and is now documented in 20 nations. The virus is largely spread by mosquitos. Related to dengue, yellow fever, and West Nile, it has a foothold in urban areas where decrepit water and sewer systems provide a comfortable breeding ground for mosquitoes.
“The mosquito lays its eggs in containers of water, of a sort that are especially common in the huge slums of Latin American cities. With unreliable access to piped water, people there store water in rooftop cisterns, buckets and the like. Old tires and other debris can also become mosquito habitat. Water storage near homes is commonplace in areas where Zika has spread rapidly, like the cities of Recife and Salvador in northeastern Brazil, and where dengue experienced a surge in 2015, like São Paulo, Brazil’s largest state."
Why is this virus so threatening? “The main fear is that it may cause birth defects if pregnant women contract it. The possibility that the Zika virus causes microcephaly [in babies] — unusually small heads and often damaged brains — emerged only in October, when doctors in northern Brazil noticed a surge in babies with the condition."
Claims have emerged that pesticides, not Zika, are to blame for the rise in birth defects, but scientists and public officials, including U.S. health authorities, debunked that argument this week, according to USA Today. Nevertheless, “Brazil’s southernmost state halted the use of a mosquito larvicide that an Argentine doctors’ group warns could be behind the recent surge of babies born with microcephaly.”

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Friday, February 12, 2016

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster updates.

**You cannot win if you never play.**

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
6.2 SUMBA REGION, INDONESIA

Yesterday, 2/11/16 -
5.4 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

2/10/16 -
5.0 TONGA
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.2 TONGA
5.0 COQUIMBO, CHILE
5.0 COQUIMBO, CHILE
6.3 COQUIMBO, CHILE

2/9/16 -
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.3 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA
5.2 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.2 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 BISMARCK SEA
5.2 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND

2/8/16 -
5.3 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.4 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.3 TONGA
5.0 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
6.5 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

2/7/16 -
5.1 ROTA REGION, N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.8 TONGA

2/6/16 -
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.5 FIJI REGION

2/5/16 -
6.3 TAIWAN
5.0 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.3 XIZANG-NEPAL BORDER REGION
5.0 VANUATU
5.0 OFFSHORE COQUIMBO, CHILE
5.2 OFFSHORE COQUIMBO, CHILE
5.3 LUZON, PHILIPPINES

Canada - People in southwestern New Brunswick have been rattled by a 'swarm' of earthquakes over the past few days. The village of McAdam has been particularly hard-hit by the swarm, which intensified in early February. The strongest tremor has only been Magnitude 3.3, but the quakes are occurring at a very shallow depth of one or two kilometres, enough to knock plates off of cupboards and crack windows.
Earthquakes Canada lists a little more than 20 such quakes, but there have been many more that have not been strong enough to register on seismographs. Some estimates point to 20 to 30 small quakes on Monday night, with many of them not picked up by monitoring equipment located in another location 95 km away.
"Many people describe it like an explosion, almost, it's so quick." Monday night was particularly active, with more than a dozen quakes. "Most of the community did not sleep very well, and there was a lot of apprehension on Tuesday."
Officials from Earthquakes Canada were in the village Thursday, setting up more seismographic equipment to track the quakes. Even though there is a 95 per cent chance no major earthquake is looming, village officials have been circulating instructions on what to do in the event of one, and has an emergency plan on the books. Most of the small quakes have all been within 5 km of McAdam, and are a continuation of similar 'swarm' activity that happened in the area in 2012, and again for a brief period in late 2015. Carroll said the current spate has been stronger than past ones.
That kind of stop-start activity isn't unusual for earthquake swarms, which can last for days, weeks or months. They also aren't a reliable indicator of future quakes in the region. "Each swarm is unique and the future size and frequency of earthquake activity in the region cannot be predicted. The current earthquake swarm is a reminder that earthquakes can occur in this region, and a larger earthquake, while unlikely, cannot be ruled out. The best advice, as always, is to know what to do before, during and after an earthquake."
Canada's West Coast borders the seismically active Cascadia Subduction Zone, where a Magnitude 9.0 quake occurred off the coast of B.C. in 1700, devastating First Nations communities in the area. However, Canada's eastern half is far from the edge of continental plates, and earthquakes in that area are relatively rare. Nevertheless, the East Coast does get the occasional tremor. In 1929, a Magnitude 7.2 quake off the coast of Newfoundland triggered a tsunami that killed 28 people.

A strong 6.5 earthquake near an eastern Indonesian island knocked out telephone, radio communications and roads late on Friday, but there were no reported casualties. Roads suffered the most damage.

Big quake may be coming to Edmond, Oklahoma City area , experts say.

VOLCANOES -
A volcano in southwest Japan is showing increasing signs of activity - Officials say tremors are shaking Mount Ioyama on the border of Kagoshima and Miyazaki Prefectures. They say that's a sign of magma and gas moving underground. They've also detected swelling on the peak's northwest side. Workers placed cameras to monitor changes in gas and heat and officials are warning an eruption could take place at any time.

Guatemala's Fire Volcano spews ash on nearby towns - A restive volcano near Guatemala's capital spewed ash on nearby towns Wednesday, 10 February, including on a colonial-era city popular with tourists. The overnight eruption of Fuego Volcano sent ash billowing up to five kilometers into the sky and rivers of lava up to two kilometers long.
Light tremors were also felt up to 25 kilometers away. Strong gusts of wind could carry the clouds of "fine ash particles" to Guatemala City, 45 kilometers distant. But thus far authorities were maintaining a yellow alert and were not ordering evacuations. However schools in the vicinity were ordered closed. The ash had so far fallen on three towns - including Antigua Guatemala, a small, UNESCO-listed city dating back nearly five centuries and which served as the capital until the 18th century.

While the Super Bowl Was Being Played, Three Different Volcanoes Erupted - all in different countries. Soputan in Indonesia provided the largest spectacle of the trio. Restless since the middle of 2015, Soputan produced a lava fountain that left ash hazards for residents near the vent. The blast plume reached heights of 8,200 feet, and exclusion zones reached as wide as 4 miles outside the volcano.
In Guatemala, Santiaguito produced several impressive explosions that blasted ash nearly 19,000 feet high. The ash from those eruptions prompted nearby areas to post both aviation and respiratory/water alerts. The eruptions could be heard from over 15 miles away.
Turrialba in Costa Rica produced an eruption that only lasted 10 minutes and reached 1,600 feet at the peak of its plume, but the ash it generated was exceptionally thick. Strong winds surrounding the volcano brought the ash into a widespread area. Turrialba's last eruption occurred in October of 2015.

TROPICAL STORMS -

* In the Southern Pacific -
- Tropical cyclone Winston was located approximately 446 nm southwest of Suva, Fiji.

- Tropical cyclone Tatiana was located approximately 362 nm west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia.
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Tropical Cyclone Tatiana intensifies, may bring dangerous swell to Queensland, Australia coast. Tropical Cyclone Tatiana may cause an increase in easterly swells on beaches south of Fraser Island on Sunday and Monday. Queensland's first cyclone of the season poses no immediate threat to the coast but may whip up dangerous swells for south-east beaches early next week.

Warnings as cyclone nears Vanuatu's south - Tropical cyclone Winson continues to pass through the Pacific and is expected to pass close to the Vanuatu islands of Tanna, Erromango and Aneityum.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Blizzard causes worst flooding in NYC since Hurricane Sandy - This week's blizzard caused the worst flooding to hit the Rockaways since Hurricane Sandy devastated the same area in 2012.

Flooding rain, damaging winds aim for western Europe into Saturday - Storms will take aim at western Europe into this weekend, returning the danger of flooding rain and damaging winds.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Polar Vortex to Bring 'Coldest Air for More Than a Decade' - The U.S. Northeast is being warned to brace for what could be the coldest temperatures in 10 years.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

Severe drought to hit parts of Africa, Central America, Asia till 2017 - Central America, parts of Africa and Asia have been hit by a drought that is generating a severe food crisis.

Papua New Guinea's food bowl all but empty - Drought exacerbated by El Nino pushes already-poor communities in Papua New Guinea to edge of starvation.

10 Million Are Starving In Ethiopia, Facing Worst Drought In Decades. Ethiopia is facing a major food crisis, leaving 10 million hungry.

4 western Montana counties face extreme drought conditions in February.

Arizona - Wildflowers here “may bloom as much as two weeks earlier than they did before 1980,” one flower expert estimates. This week's warm temperatures are mimicking mid to late-April weather, and there were two days near-record highs.

Where did El Nino go? Winter has suddenly switched off the rain and flipped on heat up to 95 degrees in California, raising jitters that the strong El Nino might not be the drought-buster the crispy state had hoped. Heat records have fallen across the West in recent days, from Oregon to Phoenix to Los Angeles. Much of California marked its 10th straight day on Friday without measurable precipitation.

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Boston - Wild temperature ride: from subzero to 50 and rain. Bitter weekend cold from the north will be followed by a storm coming up from the south next week. After the Boston area experiences the coldest temperatures in about a decade, a storm will arrive from the south later Monday. Eastern Massachusetts will likely climb toward 50 degrees on Tuesday.

Winters Are Becoming More Rainy Across the U.S. - In many locations across the country, the snow season is getting shorter.

Climate Change Causes Unpredictable Weather Because The Earth Has Tilted On Its Axis? - The words “climate change” makes most people think of global warming and what man has done to cause it. The Inuits live in the arctic regions of Canada, Greenland, and the United States. The Inuit elders claim the sun is higher than it used to be, and it is in a different position. One of the positive things about this change is that it gives the Inuit people longer daylight hours to hunt. The downside of this is that the sun shines at a more direct angle, and it warms the area up faster than it did before.

La Nina expected in next months for the first time since 2012 - Even as the El Nino weather phenomenon continues to impact global temperatures and crops, its counterpart La Nina is increasingly expected to emerge in the coming months for the first time in four years.
The return of La Nina, characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures, is possible later this year, the U.S. government forecaster said Thursday. It joined other forecasters in projecting La Nina could follow on the heels of one of the strongest El Ninos on record. When La Nina last appeared from August 2011 to March 2012, it hurt corn and soybean crops in Argentina and Brazil, brought the worst drought in a century to Texas and increased the number of storms that threatened U.S. coastal regions, like Hurricane Irene.
Energy and agricultural commodities have been roiled by the current and much-watched El Nino, which involves a pattern of warmer ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific every few years. Over the last year, El Nino has parched fields in the Philippines and Indonesia, brought unseasonable rains to areas of South America, driven up global food prices, and caused flash floods in Somalia that destroyed thousands of homes. El Nino is likely to keep affecting temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States in the upcoming months.

SPACE WEATHER -

Bright fireball over Southern California morning sky - More than 65 witnesses have reported a large blue-green fireball over southern california on Februray 11th around 6:35am PT (14:35 UT).

Medium-Sized Asteroid Hit Could Unleash Ice Age - It would be cold, it would be dry, it would be unpleasant.

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS

Creeping paralysis: Possible link to Zika virus - The Zika virus has moved north to Colombia where it is being linked by some doctors to cases of paralysis.
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Friday, February 5, 2016

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster updates.

**Sometimes things have to fall apart to make way for better things.**
Ted Mosby

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.0 OFFSHORE COQUIMBO, CHILE
5.2 OFFSHORE COQUIMBO, CHILE
5.3 LUZON, PHILIPPINES

Yesterday, 2/4/16 -
5.2 LUZON, PHILIPPINES
5.0 OFFSHORE COQUIMBO, CHILE
5.3 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.2 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.0 SOUTHWESTERN SAKHA, RUSSIA
5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND

2/3/16 -
5.2 TIMOR REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS

Underground Ramp Makes Himalayas 'Grow' Between Big Earthquakes - A subterranean ramp that is part of a major fault in the Himalayas may push up the earth after major earthquakes, new research has found. The new study mapped the fault line where the Indian Plate is diving beneath the Eurasian Continental Plate, which snakes across Tibet and Nepal. The fault is kinked, with one steeply diving "ramp" pushing up material that forms the world's tallest mountain.
The new study also corroborated other research that showed that the April 2015 Gorkha earthquake, which killed at least 8,000 people and injured thousands more, did not even come close to releasing all the stress on the fault. This pent-up energy means big earthquakes in the region could potentially happen sooner than one would otherwise expect.
The earthquake shifted Kathmandu 5 feet (1.5 meters) to the south and pushed it up by almost 24 inches (60 cm). The quake also caused Mount Everest to shrink by about 1 inch (2.5 cm).

Research team finds link between fault line slippage, large earthquakes - Movement along fault lines may be a strong indicator of when large earthquakes will occur. A report outlined its findings on how slow-slip events — movements between large tectonic plates — that occurred along a fault line approximately 1,000 kilometers long in Japan seemed to precede large earthquakes. In Japan, tectonic plates press into one another, leading to slow-slips. This movement often results in small earthquakes and, as slow-slips accelerate, larger ones.

VOLCANOES -
A Japanese volcano about 50 km (30 miles) from a nuclear plant erupted on Friday, sending fountains of lava into the night sky. The Sakurajima volcano, on the southernmost main island of Kyushu, erupts frequently. The Sendai nuclear plant, run by Kyushu Electric Power, and on the same island, resumed operations last year. It was shut down, along with all of Japan's nuclear plants, after a 2011 earthquake and tsunami triggered a meltdown at a nuclear plant north of Tokyo.

Sharks in a volcano! - Kavachi, near the Solomon Islands, is one of the most active submarine volcanoes in the world. The volcano's peak lies 25 metres below the surface, and when it isn't erupting the crater is overflowing with orange hydrothermal fluid which can be seen for a kilometre or more downstream. A team of scientists studying its geothermal activity made the unexpected discovery of sharks swimming around in the hot, acidic waters inside its crater.

TROPICAL STORMS -

No current tropical storms.

Hurricane Patricia's winds reached a record 215 mph as it roared toward the west coast of Mexico in October. That's 15 mph greater than Patricia's previously thought top speed. It's the strongest wind speed ever measured in a hurricane in the Western Hemisphere. The record was set while the storm was offshore. Before it hit land, the storm "weakened" to 150 mph. That still made Patricia the strongest hurricane to ever make landfall in Mexico.
Patricia hit a sparsely populated part of the country, limiting damage. Two people were killed and 10,000 homes were damaged or destroyed. In terms of barometric pressure, it was also the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere and second-strongest recorded anywhere in the world, trailing only Typhoon Tip in 1979.

Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones Drive Odd Phenomenon - In October 2015, Hurricane Patricia became the strongest storm ever measured by the National Hurricane Center. But what really worried authorities was the speed at which Patricia amassed her strength. The storm’s sustained winds increased from 85 miles per hour to 200 in 24 hours — the greatest 24-hour rise in intensity ever observed in the satellite era.
While forecast models have made huge strides in the last 30 years predicting the tracks of hurricanes, they still have a difficult time predicting the rate at which a storm will intensify and become dangerous. Now, a new study shows that storms like Patricia that grow rapidly are responsible for an odd phenomenon in tropical cyclones overall: stronger storms are sometimes more common than moderate ones. In this, tropical cyclones stand in stark contrast to most other kinds of weather systems, in which stronger events are uniformly rarer than moderate ones.

New Zealand and Pacific 'not off the hook' as tropical cyclone season starts to peak. Conditions are ripe for a tropical cyclone to form over the southwest Pacific as storm season reaches its height. Tropical cyclone season heats up in February and March, the busiest time of year for severe storms in the southwest Pacific including New Zealand. More than a dozen "named" cyclones are forecast to form as the strongest El Nino system in years gathers energy.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Britain is back on storm alert as experts warn to brace for fierce gales and torrential downpours in the coming days. More than two inches of rain is forecast in parts of the country with up to 90mph winds threatening a washout weekend. Stormy weather will make a comeback on Friday with the south in the firing line for the worst of the battering at the weekend. The Met Office has issued severe weather warnings for heavy and persistent rain reigniting fears of floods and travel mayhem. Northern regions will be affected by downpours on Friday before a stubborn band of rain moves southwards across the UK.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

Australia - Record-breaking heatwave tipped for Perth as experts warn of heatstroke. Some suburbs will fare worse than others as Perth braces for a record-breaking heatwave. Saturday's temperature is predicted to reach a maximum of 36 degrees Celsius, following 35 on Friday, then Sunday, Monday and Tuesday are all expected to have temperatures of 40 degrees or above. It was the combination of high daytime and high night-time temperatures expected that caused heatwave conditions.
"To put this into some sort of context we have never before experienced - since we started taking observations at Mount Lawley in 1992 - a run of four consecutive days of 39 or above. And it's only ever happened twice before since we started taking records back in the 1870s. So whilst we are in February, and it's hot in February, these are the sorts of conditions that we've not experienced before."

Hawaii - Drought fears rise as lack of January rain sets records. Last month’s weather may have been great for the beach, but the lack of rain made it the driest January on record in several locations in Hawaii. “Drought impacts, mainly to the agriculture sector, started on Kauai, Maui and the Big Island and will likely spread and intensify over the coming weeks."
All of Oahu’s rain gauges recorded below average rainfall. Only .03 inches fell at the Honolulu Airport, about 1 percent of the normal 2.3 inches for January, setting a new record for the month. All of the rain gauges at lower elevations on Oahu — from Downtown Honolulu to Waianae — got less than 10 percent of normal rainfall. The highest rainfall total of 5.6 inches was recorded at Poamoho, but that is still 31 percent of the average for January.

Philippines - Farmers in 17 of Maguindanao’s 36 towns lost their rice and corn crops to the now two-month dry spell, feared to cause widespread hunger without downpours until summer. Field workers are still validating reports on the extent of crop damage in the other 19 Maguindanao towns. Rats had also destroyed vast swaths of rice and corn farms in Maguindanao last January.

Pakistan - At least 139 children died of waterborne disease in January in Pakistan's impoverished desert district of Tharparkar, which has been devastated by drought since 2013.

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Absurd January Warmth in Arctic Brings Record-Low Sea Ice Extent - This winter’s freezing season in the Arctic is falling short. The extent of Arctic sea ice this week is hovering near record-low values for early February, based on observations that extend back to the start of satellite monitoring in 1979.
Data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) shows that last month had the lowest overall Arctic sea ice extent of any January in the satellite record. The total extent of 13.53 million square kilometers (5.2 million square miles) was 1.04 million sq km below the 1981-2010 average and 90,000 sq km below the record from January 2011.
Only a few weeks are left before the return of polar sunshine puts an end to the freeze-up that typically starts in September and peaks in late February or March. Last year’s maximum extent occurred quite early - on February 25 - and it was the lowest in the satellite record, at 14.54 million square kilometers. This year appears to have a reasonable shot at breaking that record.
Hand in hand with the skimpy ice cover, temperatures across the Arctic have been extraordinarily warm for midwinter. Just before New Year’s, a slug of mild air pushed temperatures above freezing to within 200 miles of the North Pole. That warm pulse quickly dissipated, but it was followed by a series of intense North Atlantic cyclones that sent very mild air poleward, in tandem with a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation during the first three weeks of the month.
“January was absurdly warm in the Arctic." The average surface temperature in January between latitude 60°N and the North Pole was -18.2°C (-0.8°F), topping the previous record of -20.6°C (-5.1°F) set in January 2005. Just above the surface (925 mb), the average January temperature of -14.2°C (5.9°F) was well above the previous record of -16.5°C (0.7°F), also set in 2005. The fact that average readings at this level are warmer than at the surface reflects the strong inversion typical of the lower Arctic atmosphere, especially in winter, as cold air hugs the surface and milder air flows just above it.
Some of the most visible ice-extent deficits right now are in the Barents Sea, north of Scandinavia. Warm waters carried by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC) can push all the way northeast into the Barents, making it one of the most variable of the seas that fringe the Arctic.Sea ice now covers less than half the area across the Barents that it did a year ago at this time. The difference in area -roughly 350,000 square kilometers - is bigger than the state of New Mexico. (Note that sea ice area is a somewhat different index than sea ice extent.)
Near the northwest corner of the Barents Sea, temperatures in Svalbard, Norway - at 78°N, the northernmost civilian community on Earth - have been far above average for the entire last month. From January 5 to February 3, the average in Svalbard was -4.7°C (23.5°F), which is a full 19°F above the norm - remarkable for a 30-day period. The coldest reading of the whole period, -11.9°C, was still above the average January high of -13.0°C! Temperatures pushed above freezing on four days, reaching 4.5°C on January 24 (still not a monthly record, though). The WU forecast shows Svalbard remaining unusually mild for at least the next week, with lows at or above the average highs.
The outlook for 2016 - Most of the attention around Arctic sea ice has focused on the dramatic losses in summertime, especially over the past decade. The minimum yearly extent set new record lows in 2007 and again in 2012. Both of these minimums were followed by a year or two of quasi-recovery, but then the long-term trend toward lower summer minimums resumed. Could 2016 set another new record minimum? It’s far too soon to make any confident predictions.
A record-low maximum could give the ice a head start on 2016 melting, but the ultimate outcome will depend mainly on weather patterns still to come, especially in early summer. Warm southerly winds and clear, sunny skies during June and July can make a huge difference in paving the way for a record minimum in September. Those on the front lines of experimental sea ice prediction stress the role of weather conditions in modulating how any one season will fare.
“Because the atmosphere is mostly unpredictable beyond 1 or 2 weeks, the sea ice forecasts initialized in late spring may not be able to accurately predict sea ice features that develop as a result of extreme summer atmospheric conditions." Idealized experiments suggest that the state of Arctic sea ice might be predictable with some skill as far as two years in advance. To reach this theoretical goal, we would need major advances in both Arctic observations and modeling.
There’s another catch: climate change itself may make the task harder. “Interannual variability of summer sea ice extent will likely increase in coming decades,nand some scientists suggest that this might lead to a reduction in predictability.”

SPACE WEATHER -

A small asteroid named "2013 TX68" will fly by Earth on March 5th, and NASA says it could come as close as 17,000 km to our planet's surface. That would put it well inside the Clarke Belt of geosynchronous satellites. The space rock is about 30 meters wide, or 50% larger than the asteroid that broke up in the atmosphere over Chelyabinsk, Russia, three years ago. If an asteroid the size of 2013 TX68 were to enter Earth's atmosphere, it would likely produce an air burst with twice the energy of the Chelyabinsk event.

OZONE HOLE FORMS OVER THE UK - For the past week, sky watchers in the UK have witnessed a rare apparition of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). Normally restricted to the Arctic Circle, the fantastically colorful clouds have appeared over the British Isles almost every day since Jan. 31st.
PSCs form in the lower stratosphere when temperatures drop to a staggeringly-cold -85ºC. High-altitude sunlight shining through tiny ice particles ~10µm wide produce bright iridescent colors by diffraction and interference. But there is more to PSCs than ice. Some polar stratospheric clouds contain very small droplets of naturally occurring nitric and sulphuric acids. These droplets destroy ozone. Indeed, a temporary ozone hole has formed over Ireland and the UK.
"The acid droplets destroy the stratospheric ozone layer that protects us from harmful solar ultra- violet rays. They catalyse unreactive forms of man-made chlorine into active free radicals (for example ClO, chlorine monoxide). The radicals destroy many ozone molecules in a series of chain reactions.."
This outbreak of PSCs is truly unusual. "Prior to this outbreak I have seen PSCs over the UK only twice in the last 20 years! This episode is exceptional at such low latitudes."
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Wednesday, February 3, 2016 AND the week prior

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster updates.

**Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter.**
Martin Luther King Jr.

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
None 5.0 or larger.

Yesterday, 2/2/16 -
5.7 NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN
5.6 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

2/1/16 -
5.2 OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z.
6.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

1/31/16 -
5.3 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
6.0 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION
5.0 CENTRAL PERU
5.6 ADMIRALTY ISLANDS REGION, P.N.G.

1/30/16 -
5.3 ADMIRALTY ISLANDS REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.5 BISMARCK SEA
5.1 KAMCHATKA PENINSULA, RUSSIA
7.2 KAMCHATKA PENINSULA, RUSSIA
5.0 OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
5.3 KURIL ISLANDS
5.1 STATE OF YAP, MICRONESIA

1/29/16 -
5.3 COQUIMBO, CHILE
5.2 MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

1/28/16 -
5.0 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

1/27/16 -
5.3 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 TONGA
5.1 STATE OF YAP, MICRONESIA

1/26/16 -
5.2 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
5.0 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 SUMBA REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.4 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.0 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.4 FIJI REGION
6.0 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 FIJI REGION

1/25/16 -
5.4 NORTH OF HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.0 STRAIT OF GIBRALTAR
5.2 STRAIT OF GIBRALTAR
5.3 STRAIT OF GIBRALTAR
5.0 STRAIT OF GIBRALTAR
6.3 STRAIT OF GIBRALTAR
5.1 PALAU REGION
5.7 TONGA

1/24/16 -
5.1 NORTH OF SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTHERN ALASKA
7.1 SOUTHERN ALASKA
5.2 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS

1/23/16 -
5.5 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.2 VANUATU
5.1 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN

1/22/16 -
5.1 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.5 VANUATU REGION
5.3 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE

1/21/16 -
5.0 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
6.5 OFF COAST OF JALISCO, MEXICO
5.0 STRAIT OF GIBRALTAR
5.2 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
5.4 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 TONGA REGION

1/20/16 -
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS
5.9 NORTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA
5.4 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

1/19/16 -
5.0 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.4 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.0 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.5 TAIWAN REGION
5.3 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.5 TAIWAN REGION
5.2 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA


1/18/16 -
5.1 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.9 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.2 NORTH OF HONDURAS

1/17/16 -
5.0 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
5.2 BANDA SEA
5.1 CUBA REGION
5.2 CUBA REGION

1/16/16 -
5.4 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.2 OFF COAST OF BIO-BIO, CHILE

1/15/16 -
5.2 LA RIOJA, ARGENTINA

Indonesia - One dead, 22 injured as quake hits Maluku. A 5.4 magnitude quake that struck South Buru regency in Maluku on Sunday killed one and injured many others. 19 suffered light injuries and three suffered serious injuries in the quake. The quake, at a depth of 10 kilometers, hit the southern part of Maluku's Buru Island on Sunday at 6:22 a.m. It was also felt in the neighboring regency of Buru, damaging hundreds of houses and a mosque. The local administration and South Buru Disaster Mitigation Agency had difficulty managing the disaster and assisting victims because of limited access, high waves and bad weather in reaching the affected location.

In Oklahoma, now the U.S.'s earthquake capital, people are talking nervously about the big one as man-made quakes get stronger, more frequent and closer to major population centers.

Alaska - Mushing through a 7.1 quake on rolling, cracking, spurting river ice - While many Alaskans were uneasy during Sunday’s magnitude-7.1 earthquake, most had the security of being at home, close to family and near reliable Internet and phone lines to find out exactly what happened and where the worst damage occurred. However, some mushers, including those competing in the weekend’s Northern Lights 300 Sled Dog Race from Big Lake to Finger Lake and back, did not have such modern conveniences.
“It was the longest two minutes of my life... One of the last places I want to be during a 7.1 earthquake was running dogs down the middle of a frozen river. The ice was rippling and waving like a waterbed when someone jumps up and down on it. I was having a hard time keeping my feet. As the ice rolled and jumped, it cracked and snapped all around me. Water came shooting up through the cracks, and I was trying to figure out if we were all going to wash away.”

Puget Sound, Washington - A continuous tremor has been shaking from Vancouver Island south toward Olympia. Hundreds of tremors registered across the Pacific Northwest within a 25-hour span starting Monday. The Pacific Northwest Seismic Network plotted 427 tremors on a map. "What's happening is there's an episode where the deep plate boundary is kind of rumbling." The tremor can last three weeks and happens about once a year. It's been shaking 30 miles under Puget Sound since Dec. 22.
A seismologist believes the tremor is related to the 4.3 earthquake that shook under Victoria, British Columbia on Dec. 30. That quake was the largest in the Puget Sound region since the Nisqually quake of 2001. Seismologists are not alarmed.

Really Big One’ article puts NW earthquake risk on White House agenda - A story in The New Yorker about the Northwest’s coming megaquake and tsunami helped inspire the White House to plan a seismic resilience summit.

VOLCANOES -
Chile - Several recent events suggest that a set of glacier-covered volcanoes in the southern Chilean region of Bío-Bío, which have been showing increasing activity since December, may be likely to erupt. The three mountains, known as the Nevados de Chillán, reach over 3200 meters in elevation, and have a set of glaciers totaling over 2 square kilometers in area on their summits. They have a long record of eruptions, with historical documentation from the 17th century. Radiocarbon evidence records eruptions that took place about 8000 years ago.

Azerbaijan's largest volcano awakes - One of the largest volcanoes of Azerbaijan Akhtarma Pashali awoke in the country’s Hajigabul region on the night of January 25. The mud volcano has ceased erupting. No victims were reported, as no settlements are located around the area. Akhtarma Pashali is located in 35 kilometers of the city of Shirvan. The diameter of the crater is approximately 10 square kilometers. The last eruption of this mud volcano occurred in 1963, while the first eruption of the volcano was reported in 1948. Over a thousand mud volcanoes are known to exist in the world.

Peru - Arequipa: Misti volcano is awake. The last eruption of great magnitude at Misti was 2,000 years ago. The Misti volcano has long been considered ‘asleep.’ However, studies by the Southern Volcano Observatory reveal that it is awake and emitting gases. It is currently considered the greatest risk in the South American country, as thousands of habitants reside near its crater.

The Popocatépetl volcano is one of the most dangerous volcanoes of the world, located 35 miles from Mexico City. It billowed huge clouds of black smoke and ash on Saturday. People living within a distance of 10 miles from the mountain are on yellow alert, which means they are all set to evacuate immediately in case activity increases. Before the last Popocatépetl eruption in 2000, 41,000 people were evacuated beforehand, due to early warnings. With 20 million people, Mexico City is the fourth biggest city in the world.

Hawaii - Mauna Loa is considered one of the largest active volcanoes on the face of the earth. Lava reaching temperatures over 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit cover almost 90 percent of Mauna Loa, so one of the last things you would expect to find there are ice caves. The “Mauna Loa Ice cave” and the “Arsia Cave” are hidden more than 11,000 feet up Mauna Loa’s northern slope and are in danger of a complete meltdown.

Half of the three million people living in Naples in Italy have now been told they live within a new yellow danger zone of the Vesuvius supervolcano, the infamous peak which was responsible for the historic destruction of Pompeii in 79AD. People have been warned in the event of a catastrophic eruption those in the yellow zone could be hit by falling ash and rocks.
Officials in the city have added around 1.5 million people living in 63 towns and villages on the outskirts of Naples to an existing red-zone of 600,000 people, within the closest 200 square kilometres to the peak, who were already deemed most at risk - taking the total to 2.1 million.

Philippines - Authorities in Lanao del Sur are investigating the cause of a fire that destroyed the mountain forests of Butig town near Cagayan de oro City, in the Philippines on Thursday night, with the nearby Mount Makaturing volcano high on the suspect list. The magma mount is one of the most active in the Philippines and sits on the Pacific Ring of Fire.
The 1,940-metre peak is believed to have erupted 10 times in the past, and could be due another as the last on record was in March 1882. According to locals, heavy smoke enveloped the area near the town as well as Alamada in Wao town and the blaze appeared "lava-like," as it glowed from the distance throughout Thursday night and into the early hours. Officials will probe if there is a connection between the volcano and the forest fire and the risk of any eruptions.

Indonesia - More than 1,200 people Wednesday remained evacuated from a 1.9-mile containment zone around Mount Egon in Kupang, eastern Indonesia, after toxic gas and volcanic ash erupted Tuesday. Within a 400 mile radius of Mount Egon there are also 25 other volcanoes and five of them are said to be currently erupting, while there are ten other eruption warnings in place.
Russia - There are fears seismic activity is also growing in the area around the Zhupanovsky volcano. Officials in Russia had to cancel flights near the Zhupanovsky volcano on Russia's eastern coast after it spewed lava five miles into the air, also Tuesday. The Russian explosion affected local air traffic, but the huge ash cloud is also drifting east over the Pacific Ocean so the impact on flights could be much wider.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES -

Chile - If you thought Snowpocalypse 2016 was bad, be thankful that you weren’t along the coast of central Chile. El Niño whipped up a storm in the Pacific Ocean that battered the Chilean resort city of Viña del Mar. The waves rushing into the streets were so powerful that a wall of water actually engulfed a government SUV, overturning it.

Oregon - Sneaker wave south of Coos Bay: Caught on camera. The owner of the High Tide Cafe in Coos Bay, was recording the scene at the beach when a sneaker wave came in, sending him and others scrambling for safety.

There is evidence that a 9,300-foot-tall volcano on the island of Fogo, one of the world’s largest and most active volcanoes, collapsed during an eruption 73,000 years ago and generated an 840 foot wave so big that it swept over nearby Santiago Island. The findings raise the possibility that Fogo or another volcano could cause a similarly scary event today. Other volcanic islands, including some in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean, are close to heavily-populated areas.

Ireland - Safety warnings Monday as hurricane force gusts set to batter Galway. The Road Safety Authority and Galway City and County Councils have issued safety warnings as hurricane force gusts were expected to batter Galway. Storm Henry was making landfall this lunchtime, bringing gusts of up to 130 kilometers per hour. A status orange wind warning – MET Eireann’s second highest alert level – was issued for Galway and eight other counties.
A second yellow wave alert was in place for Galway’s coastal regions, as high winds were expected to result in exceptional wave heights of up to 15 metres. The RSA said drivers should beware of fallen debris and strong crosswinds on exposed roads. Galway City Council was advising people to exercise extreme caution outdoors, especially near exposed shores.

TROPICAL STORMS -

No current tropical storms.

Texas - Galveston County commissioners have approved final plans for a $4.2 million hurricane emergency response shelter on the highest spot on Bolivar Peninsula. The agreement was recently reached with the High Island Independent School District. The 9,500- square-foot gymnasium-type building will be constructed, starting in March, on school property.
The building, reinforced to withstand hurricane-force winds, will not be an emergency shelter during mandatory evacuations. If a hurricane hits, the structure will be the base camp for emergency personnel to distribute supplies and park vehicles. Hurricane Ike slammed Galveston in 2008 and caused $29 billion in damage. More than three dozen people died.

Australia - Port Lincoln is experiencing severe flooding after being hit by the remnants of Cyclone Stan more than 3,200km away. The city located on the Eyre Peninsula in the Australian experienced strong rainfall after ex-Cyclone Stan crossed the South Australian border last night. The rain has hampered drivers and businesses with reports that there was 50mm of rain recorded at 9am with an additional 20mm recorded at lunchtime.
Cyclone Stan was previously a category two system with residents in Western Australia’s Pilbara region preparing for a potential category three cyclone over the weekend after a red-alert warning was issued. The ex-cyclone has since been downgraded but it was still strong enough to wreak havoc on Port Lincoln, 3,206km away from Pilbara, before sweeping through Adelaide.

Global Weather Oscillations says the 2016 - 2017 Atlantic hurricane season will be the strongest in over 4 years. GWO has issued the most accurate predictions of any organization over the past 7 years, and says - unlike the past three hurricane seasons that were dominated by hostile atmospheric conditions that subdued hurricane activity since 2013, and during the 2015 El Niño season - The next few years will be in a “Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle” that will provide very favorable conditions for development of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Raining fish in Ethiopia - Unusual fish-rain occurred on Sunday at 11: 30 pm in Dire Dawa City in the Eastern part of Ethiopia for a few minutes both in rural and urban areas. People in these areas were stunned by the occurrence. The Ethiopian Agricultural Research Institute Livestock Director said that this phenomena occurs due to cyclone. In meteorology, a cyclone is an area of closed, circular fluid motion rotating in the same direction as the Earth.
This is usually characterized by inward spiraling winds that rotate counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. If it is high cyclone, it can pick up fish with the help of air and come again down not far from the sea. "But I do not think it sprung from the Red Sea. It could not happen due to simple cyclone for it does not have the capacity to jack up fish." "We have information but we dispatched a team of professionals to examine the causes and consequences of the occurrence as it is the first of its kind in the country."

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

An invasion of poisonous snakes washed downriver in recent floods forced authorities to close beaches to summer holidaymakers in northern Argentina, officials said Monday. Floodwaters in the Rio Plata and Rio Parana carried a species of water lily and with it countless crawling, slithering creatures, south to beaches at the mouths of those rivers near Buenos Aires.
"We are raising awareness of the risk and danger present today. There are otters and species of snakes that are poisonous. The beaches of Quilmes have been closed as a precaution. We were cleaning up the coast during the week and while doing so we saw the snakes under the water lilies."
Inland river beaches were also closed over the weekend in the northern city of Rosario. Locals there spotted displaced animals such as otters, a wild boar and a fox cub as well as snakes, scorpions and stinging insects. Water covered the beaches and even the terraces of seaside bars in Rosario, as summer temperatures reached 40 degrees Celsius. "It is dangerous because when there is not much beach there is more risk of coming into direct contact with rodents or snakes, whose dens are all flooded." Experts have blamed severe flooding in recent weeks in Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay on the El Nino extreme weather phenomenon.

United Kingdom - Village suffers 'biblical' non stop rain for 81 DAYS and even the livestock are 'depressed'. Rain has fallen every day in the Welsh village of Eglwyswrw since October 26 and residents, farmers and their animals are all fed up.

This year the Met Office announced a new scheme to name the most furious storms to hit Britain - Storm Jonas hit Bristol Wednesday, bringing with it flooding and strong gusts. The Met Office confirmed it would not be naming this storm, which has killed nearly 30 people in the United States, because its impact and intensity has not been strong enough. But forecasters said that, had the storm ticked the criteria worthy of a name, it would have used Jonas rather than selecting Gertrude - which is next on the Met Office's alphabetically ordered list.

Flood warnings in place as Met forecasts more rain for UK - Cumbrian village of Glenridding flooded for fourth time this winter as more rain is forecast for end of week followed by cold snap at weekend. The Met Office has issued yellow warnings for rain across much of the country as the tail-end of the storm that battered the US at the weekend continued to sweep in from the Atlantic with more heavy rain expected on Friday. More than a dozen flood warnings remain in place for parts of north-west, north-east and south-west England and Wales.

Australia - One-in-100-year' rainfall triggers flash flooding in Geelong and surrounds. (Photos and video at link)

Australia - Darling Downs residents have been warned to brace for a massive storm and 'super cell' expected to reach the region tomorrow, bringing with it damaging weather conditions. Higgins Storm Chasers have issued a warning with a surface and upper trough bringing large hail, up to 8cm in diameter, damaging winds over 90kmhr, heavy rain with flash flooding and frequent lightning. The system will peak on Friday as a very potent storm set up.
"As far as severe storm set ups are concerned this ranks in the top five over the past 12 months and people need to be made well aware of the dangerous potential during Friday." There is an extreme risk of severe storms and possible supercells are forecast to heavily impact the entire South East of the state including central districts on Friday. The rare weather conditions are stretching over 2000kms up and down Eastern Australia.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

French Foreign Legionnaires killed in Alps avalanche - Five French Foreign Legionnaires have been killed and six injured in an avalanche while on a training exercise in the Alps. The avalanche came down close to Valfrejus, not far from the Italian border, where some 50 soldiers were training off-piste. Search dogs and helicopters immediately began looking for the soldiers. Last week, two school pupils and a Ukrainian tourist were killed by an avalanche nearby.
A teacher is under investigation for manslaughter after he apparently led his pupils on to a closed ski run shortly before the avalanche in Les Deux Alpes, 124km (80 miles) away from Valfrejus. Heavy snow has fallen in the Savoie region recently. About 10 of the military team were immediately found by rescuers - but five had gone into cardiac arrest, and died. All the soldiers taking part in the exercises had avalanche detection kits, and rescuers were on the scene within minutes.
Two of those found by rescuers were taken to hospital suffering from hypothermia. "For now the circumstances aren't very clear. We're still trying to carry out the rescue and trying to count everyone in the area, to know if we still have people there who've been buried." In 2012, an avalanche swept away five members of the 2nd Foreign Engineer Regiment, killing one.

Winter storm in Midwest; tornadoes punch Deep South - Heavy snow and high winds continued to sweep across much of the Midwest with near-blizzard force on Tuesday, causing highway closures in Nebraska and flight cancellations in Colorado. Nasty weather also hammered the South, with tornado warnings issued in Mississippi and Alabama. At least two tornadoes hit Mississippi.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

Zimbabwe - Drought: Farmers fear the worst. Farmers have already lost cattle and crops in the severest drought to hit the nation in a quarter of a century. But the worst may be yet to come.

Low water levels at Victoria Falls highlight southern Africa’s worst drought in 30 years - Tourists post pictures on social media of iconic falls known as “The Smoke That Thunders” looking decidedly tame as farmers endure record drought that will cause hunger across the continent.

Drought pushes Australian wildlife into crowded care - North Queensland wildlife carers are overrun with animals in care as drought conditions continue over much of the state. "It has just been dry for so long. We haven't had a good wet season really since Cyclone Yasi, so since then it has just been getting worse and worse." The group would normally attend about 500 macropods (kangaroos and wallabies) each year, but last year the number was more than 800.

El Niño: Urgent Need for Support as Drought Affects 14 Million People in Southern Africa - Families in drought-affected areas in southern Mozambique are rapidly running out of food, after the poor harvest of the previous year.

Ethiopia urged international donors on Sunday to offer aid promptly for relief operations to support 10.2 million people critically short of food, and said it was committed to allocating as much of its own funds as necessary.

2nd Disastrous Drought Year for Endangered California Salmon - Endangered native salmon suffered a second straight disastrous year in California's drought, with all but 3 percent of the latest generation dying in too-shallow, too-hot rivers, federal officials said Monday.

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has embarked on a whole new version of its international cloud atlas, used by weather observers worldwide to ensure that clouds are described in a uniform fashion. The atlas was first published in 1939 based on work extending back to the 1800s. This opens the door for entirely new ways of presenting and documenting the world’s seemingly endless variety of clouds.
Another cool feature this time: you’ve got a chance to pitch in. The WMO launched a website in October that allows anyone to submit their photos and videos for consideration in the upcoming atlas. Your odds of getting imagery accepted will be highest if you go for the more obscure, harder-to-document cloud types and if you can provide details on the geographic and meteorological context of your image

Prof Stephen Hawking Has More Bad News For Humanity: We’re About To Wipe Ourselves Out - he said that our rush to understand and improve life through science and technology could be humanity’s undoing. He has previously suggested that colonising other planets will be the only way that the human race can survive, but he warns that we may lose Earth to some kind of major disaster before we have a chance to properly do so. Although the chance of a disaster to planet Earth in a given year may be quite low, it adds up over time, and becomes a near certainty in the next thousand or ten thousand years.
By that time we should have spread out into space, and to other stars, so a disaster on Earth would not mean the end of the human race. "However, we will not establish self-sustaining colonies in space for at least the next hundred years, so we have to be very careful in this period.” It’s not the first time the professor has mongered doom; he has previously warned that AI robots will wipe us out unless we ban them first and that hostile aliens are about to destroy us.

The 21st century could be humanity’s last, according a leading scientific thinker - and what replaces us could be very strange indeed. Seth Shostak of the SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) Institute in Mountain View, California argues that three big scientific advances are on the cusp of changing humans forever.
‘We can eventually produce offspring that are as different from us as dogs are from gray wolves. ‘The haphazard, bottom-up alterations to our species occasioned by Darwinian evolution will yield to the directed improvements of future engineers. Shostak believes that three technologies - genetic engineering, artificial intelligence and space travel - are about to change the human race forever.
Technologies such as ‘designer babies’ and computers which connect directly to human minds will soon change us profoundly. ‘The development of general artificial intelligence will surely be the most dramatic driver of change, because it is less a matter of improving our descendants than replacing them with our engineered successors. ‘Perhaps we can promulgate our culture and ourselves by putting chips in our brains or simply uploading our brains to the machines. But you can be sure that the result will not be Homo sapiens as we’ve known him for 50 thousand years.
He also says that genetically engineered humans will not just be possible - but inevitable. ‘The relentless interplay of science and technology ensures that genomic knowledge will spawn a growing number of applications. Curing disease is one of these, and it’s obviously desirable. But our efforts won’t be limited to merely fixing ourselves; we’ll also opt for improvement. You may hesitate to endorse designer babies, but hot-rodding our children is as much on the horizon as the morning sun.

El Nino rain spurring growth of deadly mushrooms - El Nino rain is helping to alleviate California's drought, but it's also spurring the growth of mushrooms that can be deadly to pets.

SPACE WEATHER -

COLORFUL CLOUDS IN THE STRATOSPHERE - Clouds in the stratosphere are very rare. Yet for the past week they have been seen every day. These fantasticaly-colored clouds are floating more than 80,000 feet above Earth's surface. Normally, the thin air up there is crystal clear. Not this week. Water molecules are crystalizing in the lower stratosphere and the resulting ice crystals are assembling into polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs).
Also known as "nacreous" clouds, PSCs form in the lower stratosphere when temperatures drop to a staggeringly-cold -85ºC. High-altitude sunlight shining through tiny ice particles ~10µm wide produce bright iridescent colors by diffraction and interference. Because these clouds require extreme cold, they are most often seen around the Arctic Circle. In recent days, however, they have been spotted as far south as the UK. Indeed, a "stratospheric cloud event" appears to be underway.

It’s possible that there is a “mirror universe” where time moves backwards, say scientists. Although we experience time in one direction—we all get older, we have records of the past but not the future—there’s nothing in the laws of physics that insists time must move forward. In trying to solve the puzzle of why time moves in a certain direction, many physicists have settled on entropy, the level of molecular disorder in a system, which continually increases. But two separate groups of prominent physicists are working on models that examine the initial conditions that might have created the arrow of time, and both seem to show time moving in two different directions. When the Big Bang created our universe, these physicists believe it also created an inverse mirror universe where time moves in the opposite direction.

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS

Why hasn't the mystery of Gulf War Syndrome been solved? - The term Gulf War Syndrome first hit the headlines after US and British soldiers reported unusual symptoms on their return home. The two governments set up disease registers, with more than 100,000 veterans being assessed, but these failed to find a pattern to symptoms which could indicate a new condition.
A study in 2009 found Gulf veterans were two to three times more likely to report 53 different symptoms, including chronic fatigue and nerve pain, compared with soldiers deployed to Bosnia. None of the symptoms were unique to the Gulf War, but they were experienced in far higher numbers. "They're known as medically unexplained physical symptoms...there is no obvious physical problem causing it."
One popular theory was that soldiers had become ill after exposure to depleted uranium in tank shells. However, troops not exposed to this were just as likely to suffer chronic health problems later on. The same was true of those exposed to fumes from burning oil wells. In fact, no link could be found between veteran ill health and specific jobs or tasks. Pesticides have also been suggested as a cause, perhaps affecting the nervous system. But detailed studies found no evidence of damage that could explain this.

Healthy People Who Were Vaccinated for the Flu Continue Dying - More deaths among otherwise healthy people are being reported all across the United States among children and adults who received this year’s flu vaccination. The flu shot causes Guillain-Barré Syndrome, and is not very effective in preventing the flu. He also explains that the CDC does not follow the law for vaccines in requiring long-term safety testing for the influenza vaccine like they do with other vaccines, as it is impossible to test a vaccine that changes every year.
So the flu vaccine is basically an experimental vaccine that they want to give out to 300 million people every year. There are also no studies showing the safety of giving the flu vaccine to the same person every single year. However, Dr. Geier points out that the CDC is in the business of distributing flu vaccines, because they represent 300 million doses per year, whereas all the childhood vaccines together only number 20 million.
He goes on to explain that flu is “the wrong thing to vaccinate against” because you have to keep re- vaccinating against it every year, unlike childhood infectious diseases, such as smallpox, that are only vaccinated for once.

One person has died and 12 others are hospitalized after eating packaged salads linked to a listeria outbreak. The salads were sold under a variety of names and came from a processing facility in Springfield, Ohio, run by Dole. The dozen who were hospitalized come from six states - Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and Indiana. The fatality was in Michigan. Reports about these infections started coming in July.
The CDC is warning people not to eat salads packaged under the name Dole, Fresh Selections, Simple Truth, Marketside, The Little Salad Bar and President's Choice. The salads are sold to restaurants as well. If you have one of these packaged salads in your fridge look for the letter "A" at the beginning of the manufacturing code. Those are the ones you want to throw away.

6 Things A Food Poisoning Expert Refuses To Eat - Pre-cut and pre-washed produce. Uncooked sprouts. Red meat cooked medium rare, especially ground meat. Raw oysters and other raw shellfish. Raw or undercooked eggs. Unpasteurized (“raw”) milk and unpasteurized packaged juices.
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