**I have learned to use the word impossible with the greatest caution.**
Wernher von Braun
LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.7 NORTH OF ASCENSION ISLAND
Yesterday, 6/29/14 -
5.1 CAUCASUS REGION, RUSSIA
5.3 TONGA
6.8 TONGA
6.5 TONGA
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.9 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.6 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
6.9 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA 2
6.2 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.3 ARIZONA
TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.
* In the Eastern Pacific Ocean -
- Tropical storm Douglas is located about 490 mi (790 km) SSW of the southern tip of Baja California.
91L Growing More Organized - Will Bring Heavy Rains to Florida and the Bahamas. An area of disturbed weather over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, about 230 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida (Invest 91L) has grown more organized since Saturday, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression early this week.
Satellite loops on Sunday morning showed 91L with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but the system had a pronounced spin, and the heavy thunderstorms were organizing into spiral bands. Long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida showed two of these bands about 75 - 150 miles east of the Central Florida coast.
Sea surface temperatures in this region were about 1°C above average, 27 - 28°C - plenty of heat energy for a developing tropical cyclone. Wind shear was light, 5 - 10 knots, but was enough to keep any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the north side of 91L.
Water vapor satellite loops showed some modest patches of dry air to the north of 91L, and this dry air was retarding development on Sunday morning. The 12Z Sunday run of the SHIPS model showed shear rising to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, beginning on Monday, and remaining moderate until the end of the week. There is a significant area of dry air to the north of 91L over North Carolina that may work its way south and get wrapped into its circulation on Monday and Tuesday, but this dry air should diminish on Wednesday.
With the disturbance parked over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, organization into a tropical depression is a good possibility. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 40% and 70%, respectively. Steering currents are weak off of the Southeast U.S. coast.
The models all predict a slow southward drift on Sunday, followed by a southwesterly motion on Monday, which would bring the storm very close to the coast of Florida. The 06Z Sunday run of the GFS model has 91L making landfall over Florida on Tuesday, while the 00Z UKMET and European models stall the storm offshore, then accelerate it to the northeast later in the week, caught by a trough of low pressure to the north.
Regardless of the exact track of 91L, the coast of Central Florida and the Northwest Bahamas are likely to receive heavy rains of at least 2 - 4" on Monday and Tuesday from 91L. If 91L develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm, widespread rainfall amounts of 4 - 8" will likely fall in coastal Central Florida and the Northwest Bahamas.
Heavy rains are a potential threat for the coasts of Northern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late in the week, but there is high uncertainty in this possibility.
SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -
Tennesee - Once the rain stopped Sunday, June 29, the National Weather Service at Memphis had recorded seven inches of rain in a 30-hour period. That’s about three and a half inches more rain than Memphis gets on average in the month of June. And as the clouds gave way to sunshine Sunday afternoon, the creeks and tributaries kept their high water levels.
From 10 a.m. Saturday to 10 a.m. Sunday, Nonconnah Creek at Winchester Road went from 8 feet to 25.13 feet. Flood stage for that section of the creek is 23 feet. Some cars were left on Winchester at Tchulahoma and Germantown Road near the Wolf River. Memphis firefighters evacuated seven people from the Wheel Estate Mobile Home Park in Whitehaven when rising waters got inside their trailers.
Extreme weather causing floods across U. S. - Minnesota, Tennessee hit hard. (video)
Rain hits south China, heat scorches north - Heavy rain swept south China and will continue for the next few days, while heat waves scorched the northern regions, the National Meteorological Center said Saturday.
Yunnan, Sichuan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang provinces and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in southern China have experienced heavy downpour since June 17. Two people were killed in rainstorms in Yunnan on Saturday, with houses being submerged and bridges collapsed. Heavy rain also triggered landslides and flash floods in some areas. Rain will continue in Yunnan and Jiangxi, according to the weather observatory.
Meanwhile, a heat wave has scorched northern China. Temperatures climbed above 36 degrees Celsius in Beijing and some parts of neighboring Hebei Province. Beijing issued yellow warning for high temperature for Saturday and Sunday. China has a four-color-coded warning system for severe weather, with red being the most serious, followed by orange, yellow and blue.
EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -
Crews making progress against Arizona wildfire - Crews battling a wildfire in Arizona's eastern mountains are making headway with successful burnout operations, even as the blaze blackens more territory.
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