**A man who lies to himself is often the first to take offense. And surely he knows that no one has offended him, and that he himself has invented the offense and told lies just for the beauty of it, that he has exaggerated for the sake of effect, that he has picked on a word and made a mountain out of a pea — he knows all of that, and still he is the first to take offense, he likes feeling offended, it gives him great pleasure, and thus he reaches the point of real hostility.**
- Dostoevsky
LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
This morning -
5.1 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.3 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.2 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.2 VANUATU
5.1 SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
Yesterday, 9/11/14 -
5.0 ICELAND
5.0 ICELAND
5.0 VANUATU
9/10/14 -
5.2 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.3 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 ICELAND
5.6 MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 SULU SEA
5.7 MOLUCCA SEA
5.2 SOUTHEAST INDIAN RIDGE
6.3 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
9/9/14 -
5.0 TONGA REGION
5.0 WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
5.4 MYANMAR-INDIA BORDER REGION
5.2 ICELAND
5.1 SULU ARCHIPELAGO, PHILIPPINES
9/8/14 -
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.4 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.3 OFF COAST OF JALISCO, MEXICO
9/7/14 -
5.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.1 FED. STATES OF MICRONESIA REGION
5.5 ICELAND
5.0 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
9/6/14 -
5.2 EASTER ISLAND REGION
6.0 OFF COAST OF JALISCO, MEXICO
5.0 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.8 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.1 EASTER ISLAND REGION
6.1 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 ICELAND
VOLCANOES -
Hawaii prepares for Kilauea Volcano's lava to cut off community on Big Island. Businesses in a small Hawaii town are facing a slow- motion disaster as lava from Kilauea volcano oozes toward roads connecting them.
While filming Papua New Guinea’s Mount Tavurvur from a passing boat, a tourist caught the active volcano erupting and then the shock, moments later, when the massive sound hits them. (video)
Iceland Volcanic Eruption Sending Toxic Gases Throughout Region - Foul-smelling gases from the Bardarbunga volcanic eruption in Iceland are pestering the region, reaching Norway and Finland more than a thousand kilometers away.
TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details. *In the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Edouard expected to stay out to sea, located about 1315 mi (2120 km) E of the northern Leeward Islands.
*In the East Pacific -
- Tropical Depression 16-E is moving more slowly north-northwestward with no change in strength, about 785 mi (1265 km) WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. The depression is forecast to become a remnant low by Sunday. day.
- Tropical storm Odile a little stronger, located about 250 mi (400 km) SW of Manzanillo, Mexico. On the forecast track, the center of Odile is expected to remain well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico through Saturday. Odile is expected to become a hurricane tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday. Swells from Odile are expected to begin affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a day or so.
* In the Western Pacific Ocean -
Tropical storm Kalmaegi is located approximately 492 nm east of Manila, Philippines.
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September 11 marks the halfway point of the Atlantic hurricane season (based on the past 100 years of data, 1914-2013) and we're doing much better than usual so far. Only four named storms have formed, with three becoming hurricanes (and no major hurricanes.)
An average Atlantic hurricane season has 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane by the mid-point of the season. The four storms so far in 2014 have inflicted much less punishment than usual for half of a hurricane season.
Hurricane Arthur made landfall in North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane then blasted the Maritime Provinces of Canada as a powerful hurricane-force extratropical storm, but damage was low by Category 2 hurricane standards - just $14 million, with most of the damage occurring in Canada. Hurricane Bertha caused two deaths along the U.S. East Coast due to rough surf and strong rip currents, but did insignificant damage as it recurved out to sea, just off the coast.
Hurricane Cristobal also did minimal damage, but killed a total of seven people - three swimmers in the U.S., and flood victims in Haiti (2), the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical Storm Dolly, which made landfall in northeastern Mexico on September 2 with 50 mph winds and torrential rains, killed one person and did millions in damage.
Residents of Hurricane Alley shouldn't assume the rest of the season will end with a whimper, though. All it takes is one bad hurricane to make a ruinous hurricane season. Recall that 2012's worst storm - Hurricane Sandy - didn't occur until the third week of October!
Central Atlantic Tropical Depression 6 does not appear to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, U.S. East Coast, or Bermuda. It remains to be seen if TD 6 will be a threat to the Canadian Maritime Provinces late next week.
Flood threat to Mexico from Tropical Storm Odile diminishes - In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Odile formed on Wednesday morning a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco. Satellite loops show that Odile has a large area of heavy thunderstorms that are slowly organizing, but the heavy rains of the storm are remaining just offshore of the Pacific coast of Mexico. If Odile follows the current projections from our two top track models, the GFS and European, these rains will remain offshore as the storm moves northwest, parallel to the coast. If the storm deviates to the right of its expected path, it will be capable of dumping 5 - 10" of rain along the coast from Acapulco to Puerto Vallarta.
Why has the Eastern Pacific been so active? - It's been a remarkably active hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific; Odile's formation gives the basin 15 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes so far this year. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year, with about 2/3 of that activity occurring by September 9.
Since July, the Eastern Pacific has had ocean temperatures about 0.6°C (1°F) above average and wind shear about 20% below average. The region has been dominated by moist, rising air and low pressure, leading to above average vertical instability. All of these factors are favorable for an active hurricane season.
The Atlantic and Eastern Pacific are usually out of phase with their hurricane seasons - when one is active, the other is inactive. This occurs because when the large-scale atmospheric circulation favors rising air and low pressure over one ocean basin, there must be high pressure and dry, sinking air elsewhere to compensate - which typically occurs over the neighboring ocean basin, suppressing hurricane activity there.
Tropical Depression 15 forms east of the Philippines - In the Western Pacific, Tropical Depression Fifteen is organizing in the waters east of the Philippines, and is on course to intensify into a typhoon and potentially affect the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Sunday. TD 15 will then potentially impact China early next week.
SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -
Heavy Rain Hits Japan - Emergency Alerts Issued in Hokkaido. The Japan Meteorological Agency on Thursday issued emergency alerts in western Hokkaido, forcing officials to order the evacuation of nearly one million people living near rivers.
Hundreds die in India, Pakistan after HEAVIEST RAIN IN 50 YEARS. The death toll from the heaviest rain to fall on Kashmir in 50 years rose to more than 400 on Tuesday.
Arizona - Heavy storms pounded the Phoenix area early Monday, flooding major freeways and small roads, leading to several water rescues and setting an ALL-TIME RECORD FOR RAINFALL in the city in a single day.
SPACE WEATHER -
STORM WARNING - Among space weather forecasters, confidence is building that Earth's magnetic field will receive a double-blow from a pair of CMEs on Sept. 12th. The two storm clouds were propelled in our direction by explosions in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2158 on Sept. 9th and 10th, respectively. Strong geomagnetic storms are possible on Sept. 12th and 13th as a result of the consecutive impacts. Sky watchers, even those at mid-latitudes, should be alert for auroras in the nights ahead.
Sunspot AR2158 erupted on Sept. 10th at 17:46 UT, producing an X1.6-class solar flare. A flash of ultraviolet radiation from the explosion ionized the upper layers of Earth's atmosphere, disturbing HF radio communications for more than an hour. More importantly, the explosion hurled a CME directly toward Earth.
Radio emissions from shock waves at the leading edge of the CME indicate that the cloud tore through the sun's atmosphere at speeds as high as 3,750 km/s. By the time it left the sun's atmosphere, however, the cloud had decelerated to 1,400 km/s. This makes it a fairly typical CME instead of a "super CME" as the higher speed might suggest.
Even with a downgrade in speed, this CME has the potential to trigger significant geomagnetic activity when it reaches Earth's magnetic field during the mid-to-late hours of Sept. 12th. NOAA forecasters estimate an almost-80% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Sept. 12-13.
Sunspots AR2157 and AR2158 have unstable magnetic fields that harbor energy for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimated a 40% chance of X-class flares and a whopping 85% chance of M-flares on Sept. 11th.
The X-flare of Sept 10th caused a radio blackout on Earth. Ironically, it also caused a blast of radio noise. Radio astronomers and hams in the Americas and across the Pacific Ocean heard static roaring from the loudspeakers of their shortwave receivers. "It was absolutely howling." Radio emissions like these are caused by shock waves in the sun's atmosphere.
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