**Many men go fishing all their lives without knowing that it is not fish that they are after.**
Henry David Thoreau
LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.2 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
Yesterday, 11/3/14 -
5.0 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
6.2 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
5.1 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.5 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.3 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
11/2/14 -
5.3 ZAMBIA
6.0 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION
5.4 ICELAND
11/1/14 -
5.4 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.3 OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z.
7.1 FIJI REGION
6.0 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.6 EASTER ISLAND REGION
A magnitude-6.9 earthquake shook the Pacific Ocean near Fiji shortly before 8 a.m. local time Sunday, but no tsunami was expected. The quake — centered about 88 miles northeast of the island of Ndoi — was about 260 miles deep. Fiji is an archipelago about 3,100 miles southwest of Hawaii.
TROPICAL STORMS -
* In the Eastern Pacific -
- Tropical storm Vance is weakening; located about 240 mi (385 km) SW of Mazatlan, Mexico. The center of Vance is expected to move near or over the western coast of Mexico on Wednesday.
* In the Western Pacific -
Typhoon Nuri is located approximately 245 nm west of Iwo To, Japan.
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Typhoon Nuri Poised to become an Alaskan Super Storm; Vance Drenching Mexico. Typhoon Nuri lost its "Super" designation Monday night, after the top winds fell below 150 mph, but remains poised to transition this weekend to ONE OF THE STRONGEST EXTRATROPICAL STORMS EVER TO AFFECT ALASKA.
Nuri intensified from a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds to a very high-end Category 5 with 180 mph winds on Sunday, tying Super Typhoon Vongfong for strongest tropical cyclone of 2014. Satellite loops show that Nuri remains a formidable storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops and a prominent eye. Fortunately, Nuri is not expected to directly threaten any land areas, with the storm passing far enough from Japan on Thursday to keep the heavy rain area out to sea.
However, once Nuri loses its tropical characteristics and moves into the Bering Sea to the west of Alaska on Friday, a very powerful jet stream will interact with ex-Nuri and cause it to rapidly intensify into ONE OF THE STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EVER OBSERVED IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. Ex-Nuri will bring substantial impacts to the Aleutian Islands and coastal areas of southwest Alaska over the weekend, with the threat of damaging winds near hurricane force and a significant storm surge.
Hurricane Vance in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico is steadily weakening as high wind shear of 35 - 40 knots tears into the storm. Satellite images show that Vance is barely recognizable as a hurricane, with an elongated disorganized appearance. Wind shear is expected to rise even higher before Vance reaches the Mexican coast late Wednesday morning, and this may be sufficient to tear Vance apart before landfall. Regardless of whether or not Vance makes it to the coast as a tropical storm, flooding rains will be the primary threat; heavy rains of 4 - 8" will affect the Mexican coast northwest of Puerto Vallarta on Tuesday and Wednesday.
SPACE WEATHER -
Fireball spotted in skies from Chicago to Japan - There were nearly 400 reports of a fireball in more than a dozen states, including Alabama, Virginia, Tennessee and Illinois. Meanwhile in western Japan, there were multiple sightings of "a sparkling light racing across the sky. It's not clear if the sightings across the U.S. and Japan were of the same object, though it's not likely. The operations manager for the American Meteor Society said that while the object on the East Coast "was definitely a fireball," the one in Chicago's sky "was most likely manmade" — possibly "a flare from a boat on Lake Michigan."[video at link]
Arriving only a little late for Halloween, a flare-y sunspot is emerging over the sun's northeastern limb. In 24 hours AR2205 has unleashed at least four M-class flares including an M6-flare recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory on Nov. 3rd.
The explosions have hurled multiple CMEs into space. Not one of the clouds is heading our way. Earth is outside the line of fire. This could change in the days ahead, however, as the sun's rotation turns the active region toward our planet.
NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of M-flares during the next 24 hours. Those odds seem low considering the ongoing activity. In fact, another M-flare is almost certain and an X-flare could be in the offing, too.
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