**Nothing in this world is harder than speaking the truth, nothing easier than flattery.**
Dostoevsky
LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.3 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
Yesterday, 11/5/14 -
5.1 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 GUAM REGION
11/4/14 -
5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.2 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
Oregon - Earthquake swarm near Lakeview: 'Slight' increase in likelihood of larger quake, scientists say. Seismologists in Nevada, Oregon and California continue to monitor an intense swarm of earthquakes about 40 miles southeast of Lakeview, Oregon, in the Nevada desert.
The magnitude 4.6 temblor late Tuesday night was followed by several quakes or magnitude 3 or greater, officials said. The area is so remote only four people reported feeling Tuesday's earthquake. There have been earthquakes of magnitude 4 or greater in the same area in the past week, and 42 quakes greater than magnitude 3 in the past three months. All told, there have been 719 earthquakes in the area, mostly magnitude 2 to 3, since mid-July.
Does the swarm of earthquakes signal that a larger, more damaging quake is in the offing? Using historic data as a model, scientists said the swarm of quakes does slightly increase the likelihood of a larger earthquake. The quakes are occurring in an area of north Washoe County in Nevada that's not only remote, but also contains a sparse network of automated monitors. Those add to the difficulty of tracking seismic activity.
The Great Basin area where the swarm is occurring is crisscrossed by fault lines. In 1968, a swarm of earthquakes near Adel, 30 miles east of Lakeview, included three earthquakes with a magnitude of 5. The Adel quakes caused moderate damage. A similar swarm to Adel and the recent spate of temblors also resembles the "Mogul-Somersett" swarm in west Reno in 2008. That swarm included a magnitude 5 quake that also caused moderate damage.
Nevada includes "one of the most seismically active regions in the United States. Along with California and Alaska, Nevada ranks in the top three states subject to the most large earthquakes over the last 150 years." At 6:16 a.m. Feb. 21, 2008, a magnitude 6 quake near Wells, Nevada, injured three people, heavily damaged 20 buildings and damaged another 700 structures. Nevada experienced a significant round of major quakes between between 1915 and 1954, finishing with magnitude 6.6 and 7.1 earthquakes in 1954. The area where the sequence of earthquakes occurred was named the Central Nevada Seismic Belt. (videos at link)
VOLCANOES -
Some Hawaii Residents Are Trying To Fight Lava With Garden Hose - On Hawaii's Big Island, a 2,000-degree river of lava is slowly crawling through the Pahoa Village, threatening the homes of 800 or more residents. While state and government officials have intentionally done nothing to stop, divert or obstruct the lava flow (citing the potential risks and cultural sensitivities), some homeowners are trying anything they can to save their homes from fiery destruction. (video at link)
TROPICAL STORMS -
* In the North Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 05b (Five) is located approximately 450 nm east of Chennai, India.
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As It Turns Extra-Tropical, Typhoon Nuri Could Challenge All-Time Record - For 24 hours over the weekend, Nuri was a category 5 monster storm with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph, tying with Typhoon Vongfong as the strongest cyclone of the season.
But Nuri may actually make a name for itself after it loses its tropical characteristics when it moves north into the Bering Sea. When it gets there, all the warm, tropical air it's pushing around will crash into a mountain of cold air and cause a violent explosion of meteorological energy that could propel this storm into history. The National Weather Service in Anchorage says that during that so-called "bombogenesis" the storm's central pressure — an important measure of intensity — will deepen from 970 MB late Thursday to between 918 to 922 MB late Friday. The Aleutian Islands will be pummeled with 40 to 50 foot waves and wind gusts of up to 100 mph. This storm is so strong that it will also cause the jet stream to plunge south, bringing cold temperatures to a huge part of the U.S.
HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
Long Range U. S. Winter Outlook - COLDER THAN NORMAL GREAT LAKES - NEW ENGLAND AND GULF COAST. A colder than normal winter, especially during the first half appears likely for the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and New England region, while below normal Temps are also likely across the entire Gulf coast region. However, while Temps will likely average below normal, it’s very unlikely that this winter will be even remotely close to last years’ frigid winter.
In contrast to the east, the western half of the nation should see another unusually mild winter – but should be significantly stormier than last year – with above normal Precip expected from northern California to Washington State as the mean storm track shifts further south compared to last year - especially by January. Near normal Precip appears likely for southern California, allowing for at least some recovery from the extreme drought of the last several years.
The colder pattern that is now developing across the US is partially the result of an enormous and very powerful West Pacific cyclone developing from the remnant of Typhoon Nuri (with the GFS forecasting a central pressure of 918mb by SAT morning). This super storm is building a strong ridge ahead of it – with an even stronger downstream TROF expected to form over North America next week. These type of strong tropical storm forcing mechanisms on the overall hemispheric wind pattern generally last 10-15 days – but rarely, for longer periods - IF there is a lack of pattern forcing from the Eastern Pacific.
Another, albeit small, input to the Long Range Outlook is a fairly well studied phenomena related to the early development of a large AND unusually deep snow cover in Siberia during October. Absent a strong Pacific ENSO event influence, a deep Siberian snow cover in the Fall often leads to a cold North American winter as the large, low level source of cold air over Siberia ‘sets up’ a jet stream pattern that favors deep, arctic air mass intrusions into much of North America. Unfortunately, real-time snow depth reports from the Euro-Asian region (and especially Siberia!) is simply not available. Snow extent (derived from Satellite imagery) is, however, available on a daily basis, and current snow extent (and arctic basin ice coverage) is slightly greater than at the same time last year, and significantly more widespread than in OCT 2012.
Wunderground.com is forecasting a colder winter than that given in the official NOAA outlook, but not nearly as cold as most every other private forecast services are calling for. [MUCH more info at link]
SPACE WEATHER -
SOLAR STORM CLOUDS MISS EARTH - Sunspot AR2205 is crackling with M-class solar flares. The blasts have hurled multiple CMEs into space, but so far none poses a threat to Earth. Because AR2205 is not yet directly facing Earth, the CMEs are sailing wide of our planet. sMore eruptions are in the offing. AR2205 has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong flares and CMEs. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of M-flares and a 25% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.
HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS
It's Over: Texas Ebola Outbreak About to End - As of midnight Friday, it will have been 21 days since anyone got Ebola or was in contact with someone who got Ebola.
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