I will be back on track for updating at the end of this month - with every intention of regular updating in 2015. (My New Year's resolution!)
HAPPY HOLIDAYS EVERYONE!
Tuesday, December 2, 2014
**The best definition of man is: a being that goes on two legs and is ungrateful.**
Dostoevsky
LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.0 OFF W. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z.
6.6 MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.8 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.0 ICELAND
Yesterday, 12/1/14 -
5.4 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.6 AUCKLAND ISLANDS, N.Z. REGION
5.3 ICELAND
5.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.1 CARLSBERG RIDGE
11/30/14 -
5.0 PALAU REGION
5.0 OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z.
5.2 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
11/29/14 -
5.7 MOLUCCA SEA
5.3 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.0 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.2 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.0 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.0 CENTRAL ALASKA
11/28/14 -
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA
5.2 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.4 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.2 CELEBES SEA
5.1 PANAMA-COLOMBIA BORDER REGION
5.0 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.2 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
11/27/14 -
5.3 TONGA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.3 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.3 CARLSBERG RIDGE
11/26/14 -
5.5 NORTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.1 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.6 MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA
6.8 MOLUCCA SEA
5.2 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS
11/25/14 -
5.3 NORTHERN COLOMBIA
5.3 TRISTAN DA CUNHA REGION
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA
5.6 WESTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.1 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.0 CARLSBERG RIDGE
11/24/14 -
5.6 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.3 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.2 ICELAND
VOLCANOES -
One of world's largest volcanoes erupts in Japan - A volcano in southern Japan blasted out chunks of magma Friday in the first such eruption in 22 years, causing flight cancellations and prompting warnings to stay away from its crater. Mount Aso spewed out lava debris and smoke, shooting plumes of ash a kilometer (3,280 feet) into the sky. Dozens of flights from Kumamoto, the nearest city, were canceled.
The observatory did not expect the eruption to increase in scale. Mount Aso, about 1,000 kilometers (625 miles) southwest of Tokyo on Kyushu island, is one of the world's largest. Earthquakes and other seismic activity stepped up in late August. Eruptions by another volcano, Mount Ontake, in Nagano west of Tokyo killed more than 50 people in late September. (photos at link)
Cape Verde volcano threatens to destroy villages, as government meets with U.N. officials. Molten rock from a thundering volcano threatens to engulf several villages in Cape Verde – days after its initial eruption. The active volcano, Pico do Fogo, is the archipelago’s highest peak on its most prominent island: Fogo, which means fire.
It burst open on November 23 for the first time since 1995 and has continued to erupt – prompting government officials to call for an emergency meeting with U.N. representatives and aid agencies. "In the last few hours, there was an increase in volcanic activity and the lava is flowing towards Portela and this community may be completely engulfed by lava. The potential is for the total destruction of Cha das Caldeiras, one of the most fertile regions of Cape Verde.”
A gigantic lake of black lava could be seen a few feet from homes in the village of Portela and the 1,200 residents of Cha das Caldeiras fled for emergency shelters. This was Pico do Fogo’s largest eruption since 1951. Witnesses have been shooting videos of the continuing eruptions.(photo & videos at link)
Iceland - There have been insubstantial changes to the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun over the last two weeks. Seismic activity in Bárðarbunga volcano under Vatnajökull glacier continues to be strong. The biggest earthquake since noon on Friday was of magnitude 4.5.
Twelve earthquakes larger then magnitude 4.0 were detected in Bárðarbunga over the weekend and about 200 earthquakes in total. About ten earthquakes were detected in the intrusive dike, connecting Bárðarbunga with Holuhraun, and around the eruption site since Friday. All of them were smaller than magnitude 1.0. The seismograph network is sensitive to wind, so fewer smaller earthquakes are detected during a storm like the one which hit Iceland Sunday.
TROPICAL STORMS -
* In the Western Pacific -
Tropical storm 22w (Hagupit), located approximately 484 nm south-southeast of Andersen AFB, Guam.
-----
Tropical Storm Hagupit,was just a low pressure area on Nov. 30, but warm waters and good atmospheric conditions allowed the storm to develop rapidly. By Dec. 1 the low pressure area strengthened into a tropical storm. Hagupit developed from low pressure area System 95W. On Nov. 30, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center was monitoring System 95W when it was a couple of hundred miles south of the island of Chuuk. Chuuk is an island and one of the four states of the Federated States of Micronesia, located in the western North Pacific Ocean.
By Dec. 1 at 0900 UTC (4 a.m. EST), the low pressure area had been designated as a tropical depression and was renamed Tropical Depression 22W. Six hours later, the storm had quickly intensified into Tropical Storm Hagupit as maximum sustained winds strengthened near 40 knots (46 mph/73 kph). At that time Hagupit was centered about 140 nautical miles south-southwest of Chuuk and was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 knots (17.2 mph/27.7 kph).
The forecast from JTWC calls for slow intensification of the tropical storm over the next day. Thereafter, the storm is expected to intensify rapidly because of improved upper-level atmospheric conditions and warm sea surface temperatures. The JTWC is forecasting Hagupit as a typhoon as its center passes just to the north of the island of Yap on Dec. 3 while continuing to move in a west-northwesterly direction.
There are several warnings and watches now in effect for Tropical Storm Hagupit. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Satawal in Yap state. A typhoon watch is in effect in Faraulep, Woleai, Fais and Ulithi in Yap state, and a tropical storm watch is in force in Puluwat in Chuuk state.
The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Ends With Below-Average Activity - The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is officially in the books, ending up with below average activity - 8 named storms: 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes.
SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -
Flooding in France claims five lives - Severe storms continue to batter the western Mediterranean, with damaging winds and torrential downpours. The latest has brought severe flooding to southern France, where five people have died, and thousands of people have been forced to evacuate their homes. (video)
Gaza floods: UN declares state of emergency - The United Nations has declared a state of emergency in the Gaza Strip after two days of heavy rain led to severe flooding. No casualties have been reported but hundreds of people have been evacuated and 63 schools are closed for the day in Gaza City.
Heavy rains which began on Wednesday hit the small territory at a difficult time, as thousands of Gazan families still live in communal shelters or the ruins of their own homes after recent conflict. In the Shejaiya neighbourhood, where air strikes during the recent conflict damaged many of the buildings, residents already face a cold winter without electricity or water.
"We are very concerned about such severe storms this early in the season and on the back of unprecedented damage and destruction caused by the recent conflict. We are particularly concerned for those families still seeking adequate shelter and preparing for the winter months, and for the impact the flooding is already having on children unable to attend school." (video & photos at link)
Fierce wind knocks out windows, power in Wyoming - Hurricane-force wind knocked out windows and electricity, topped a 40- foot spruce tree onto a visitor center and inconvenienced Black Friday shoppers in northwest Wyoming.Winds reached 82 mph in Cody and 117 mph in Clark, an unincorporated community of 300 about 40 miles east of Yellowstone National Park.
No damage was reported in Clark, which in certain weather conditions is known to get blasted by extremely strong wind out of the nearby Absaroka Mountains. In Cody, gusts the day after Thanksgiving toppled a 40- foot Colorado spruce onto a visitor center. Electricity cut out for a few hours in a neighborhood of about 100 homes. One home had two storm windows knocked out. The National Weather Service predicted strong winds would continue through the weekend as a storm system that dumped heavy snow on Jackson Hole and Yellowstone moved through the region.
California - Rains in the Malibu area have covered part of the Pacific Coast Highway in mud, rocks and debris from a former wildfire area and left about a dozen vehicles stranded. 10 to 15 vehicles were marooned Sunday afternoon in eastern Ventura County by several inches of mud and sharp rocks that damaged tires. A six-mile stretch of PCH was closed and expected to remain that way until Monday.
The troubles stood in contrast to the light-but-rare rains that fell on other Southern California cities. Just trace amounts of rain were recorded in Burbank and parts of Los Angeles' San Fernando Valley. Forecasters say the brunt of the storm isn't expected to reach Southern California until Tuesday, when 2 to 3 inches of rain could fall.
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Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook
Monday, November 24, 2014
**Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most.**
Dostoevsky
I was unable to update the webpage last week as my father had another stroke. He's doing ok, but with a long recovery period ahead.
LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
None 5.0 or larger.
Yesterday, 11/23/14 -
5.0 OFF COAST OF OREGON
5.0 EAST OF NORTH ISLAND, N.Z.
5.2 OFF COAST OF OREGON
11/22/14 -
5.6 ROMANIA
5.5 CENTRAL AFGHANISTAN
6.2 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
6.0 WESTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.0 CENTRAL PERU
5.0 OFF COAST OF TARAPACA, CHILE
5.3 VANUATU
11/21/14 -
6.6 MOLUCCA SEA
5.2 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
5.8 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
11/20/14 -
5.6 MYANMAR-INDIA BORDER REGION
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.5 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
11/19/14 -
5.2 TAIWAN REGION
5.2 KYUSHU, JAPAN
5.0 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
5.3 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.2 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.0 KEP. TANIMBAR REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 TIMOR REGION, INDONESIA
11/18/14 -
5.1 TONGA REGION
5.0 KYUSHU, JAPAN
5.0 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.2 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.3 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.8 MOLUCCA SEA
5.7 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
11/17/14 -
5.3 GREECE
5.2 GREECE
5.1 FLORES SEA
6.2 PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDS REGION
5.3 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.4 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.2 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.4 SOUTHEAST OF EASTER ISLAND
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.5 MYANMAR
5.3 D'ENTRECASTEAUX ISLANDS REGION
5.9 D'ENTRECASTEAUX ISLANDS REGION
Strong Quake in West China Kills 2; 54 Hurt.
Japan - The damage from an overnight earthquake in a mountainous area of central Japan that hosted the 1998 winter Olympics proved more extensive than initially thought. A daylight assessment Sunday found at least 50 homes destroyed in two villages, and 41 people injured across the region, including seven seriously, mostly with broken bones.
The magnitude-6.7 earthquake struck shortly after 10 p.m. Saturday west of Nagano city at a depth of 5 kilometers (3 miles). The U.S. Geological Survey recorded a magnitude of 6.2. The hardest-hit area appeared to be Hakuba, which hosted events in the 1998 winter games. At least 43 homes were destroyed there, and 17 people injured. Another seven homes were lost in Otari, a nearby village to the north. Non-residential buildings were also destroyed, with officials assessing the extent.
Japanese television footage showed buildings in various states of collapse, some flattened and others leaning to one side, and deep cracks in the roads. A landslide spilled onto a railroad track, forcing service to stop. About 200 people from Hakuba and Otari had evacuated to shelters. More than 20 people trapped under collapsed houses were rescued.
The quake has been followed by more than 60 aftershocks, and Meteorological Agency officials urged residents to watch out for landslides. The area was struck by a magnitude-6.7 earthquake the day after the huge March 2011 quake. (video at link)
VOLCANOES -
Cape Verde orders evacuation after Fogo volcano erupts - The volcano in the Cape Verde archipelago off the coast of West Africa erupted on Sunday morning. A photograph posted on the local RTC TV station website showed a huge plume of smoke rising into the sky, visible from the capital Praia on a neighbouring island.
"Things could deteriorate in the coming moments, in the coming hours," said a statement on the government website. "We've called on people to heed the authorities' instructions. People should abandon Cha das Caldeiras," referring to a hillside community. It was not immediately clear if there were injuries or deaths following the eruption.
The volcano last erupted in 1995, causing minor damage. A larger eruption occurred in 1951. The government planned to send a plane providing assistance to residents. The former Portuguese colony is located about 600 km (400 miles) off the coast of Senegal. Fogo's volcanic peak, surrounded by vineyards, is a hiking destination.
TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.
HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
Flood Threat Looms for N.Y. After Arctic Onslaught - Flood warnings were in effect for parts of New York on Sunday, with temperatures heating up as the region dug out from a massive and deadly snowfall that dumped seven feet of snow on the Buffalo area and killed at least 13 people. Temperatures were expected to climb through the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast on Sunday and Monday, with some areas seeing highs in the 60s and possibly even the 70s in the South.
Video
EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -
October 2014: Earth's Third Consecutive Warmest Month ON RECORD - October 2014 was the warmest October on record, and the year-to-date-period January - October was Earth's warmest such period since record keeping began in 1880.
'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -
Corn Might Be a Culprit for CO2 Releasing into the Atmosphere - Corn, Wheat, Rice, and Soybean Carbon Dioxide causing Climate Change. The United Nations and world governments are blaming industrial facilities and greenhouse gas emissions as contributing to climate change, but a new study has revealed that four crops, corn, rice, wheat and soybean, are playing large roles in the climate change game. There has been a great shift in agriculture in the last five decades. We have learned how to create more crops and make production more efficient, but the question now is how will crops change the atmosphere of the future?
A new study shows that levels of Carbon dioxide will be on the rise in the Northern Hemisphere, due to summer heat and the tail-end of the growing season. This will release CO2 in parts of the growing season. "We know that crops have increased in productivity over this time period and they were in the right place to be influencing this." While the team of researchers found that corn, soybeans, wheat and rice account for the highest percentage of crops that release maximum CO2; the likeliest culprit will be corn.
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Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook
Monday, November 17, 2014
**Talking nonsense is man's only privilege that distinguishes him from all other organisms.**
Dostoevsky
LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.0 FIJI
5.5 MYANMAR
5.9 D'ENTRECASTEAUX ISLANDS REGION
Yesterday, 11/16/14 -
6.7 OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z.
5.4 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 OFF COAST OF COSTA RICA
5.0 ICELAND
11-15-14 -
5.0 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.4 MOLUCCA SEA
5.4 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.8 MOLUCCA SEA
7.1 MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 SOUTHERN PERU
5.4 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
11-14-14 -
5.1 SOUTHERN PERU
5.4 ICELAND5.1 SOUTHERN PERU
5.0 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.3 KURIL ISLANDS
5.2 KYRGYZSTAN
7.1 quake hits Indonesia, causes small tsunami - A strong undersea earthquake hit eastern Indonesia on Saturday, triggering a small tsunami and some panic but no casualties or major damage. The 7.1 quake occurred west of Halmahera island, which is about four hours' flight from the capital, Jakarta.
Indonesia's meteorological agency said a tsunami wave of 9 centimeters (3.54 inches) washed onto the small island of Jailolo but caused no damage. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center later lifted its advisory for potential hazardous waves for coastal communities. The quake was strongly felt in several cities in eastern Indonesia, sending many people to run from homes and other buildings.
The world's largest archipelago, Indonesia is prone to earthquakes due to its location on the Pacific "Ring of Fire," an arc of volcanoes and fault lines in the Pacific Basin. In 2004, a monster quake off the tip of Sumatra Island triggered a tsunami that killed 230,000 people in a dozen countries. Most of the deaths were on Sumatra.
VOLCANOES -
Alaska volcanic eruption intensifies; lava advances in Hawaii. Mt. Pavlof volcano in the Alaska Peninsula launched an ash plume 30,000 feet into the air on Saturday morning, while officials in Hawaii say lava continues to advance on a town that has been sitting in the path of a slow-moving molten slide since June.
Mt. Pavlof, which has been erupting since Wednesday, continues to see intense seismic activity, and pilots in the area were reporting ash clouds as high as 30,000 feet above sea level. The Federal Aviation Administration has yet to impose flight restrictions in the area, but the agency did issue several notices to pilots regarding the eruption.
In Hawaii, the state's civil defense agency said Saturday that the lava flow from Kilauea volcano that had advanced slowly on the town of Pahoa since June was continuing to edge closer, but still did not pose an immediate threat to residents. The lava, which has come within 200 yards of Pahoa Village Road in recent weeks, has smothered part of a cemetery and set fire to two structures, but there are no other buildings in its immediate vicinity. In a statement issued Saturday, Hawaii's civil defense agency said several "active breakouts" from the lava flow were burning asphalt and vegetation, and heavy smoke conditions could be persistent in the area. Many residents of Pahoa have evacuated or are prepared to do so.
TROPICAL STORMS -
* In the South Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone Adjali is located approximately 334 nm west-southwest of Diego Garcia.
SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -
Storms claim lives in France and Italy - Storms and heavy rains have battered parts of western Europe, causing a number of fatalities. Three members of one family were killed in the south of France when their car was swept away. In Italy, some towns have been evacuated after heavy rain burst river banks and flooded streets. (video)
Deadly mudslides engulf homes in Switzerland and Italy - At least four people have been killed in landslides in southern Switzerland and northern Italy following days of torrential rain. Two women died when a wall of mud destroyed a house near the Swiss town of Lugano on Sunday. Over the border, a pensioner and his granddaughter were killed when a mudslide engulfed their home. The heavy rain is expected to continue across the region, and both countries have issued major flood alerts. The levels of lakes Lugano and Maggiore, seen below, are already dangerously high. (photos & video at link)
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Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook
Thursday, November 13, 2014
**Talking nonsense is man's only privilege that distinguishes him from all other organisms."
Dostoevsky
LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.1 GOLFO DE FONSECA, HONDURAS
5.5 VANUATU
5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
6.0 FIJI REGION
Yesterday, 11-12-14 -
5.0 OWEN FRACTURE ZONE REGION
5.5 OFF COAST OF ECUADOR
5.1 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
11-11-14 - 5.2 BANDA SEA
5.0 SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.0 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.3 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.0 LAKE TANGANYIKA REGION
Earthquake swarm in remote Nevada region intensifies - An earthquake swarm that started rocking a secluded region in northwest Nevada this summer intensified over the past week, geology officials said on Wednesday. The swarm, centered just off the state's northwest border some 40 miles (65 km) southeast of Lakeview, Oregon, started July 12 and is being caused by stretching of the Earth's crust.
Two magnitude 4.7 quakes, and over 50 magnitude 3 or stronger temblors have occurred over the past week, representing more seismic activity than in recent months combined. "I've talked to people whose houses are very near this epicenter, and they are already getting shaken up." It would likely take significantly stronger quakes to damage nearby structures or surrounding communities.
The Laboratory said there have been 101 tremors of a magnitude 3 or larger, and eight that clocked in at a magnitude 4 or stronger since the swarm first appeared. Following swarms like these there is a slight increase in the likelihood that a larger earthquake will happen, the Laboratory said, though it is impossible to predict whether such a quake would occur. The current swarm resembles one that happened in Reno, Nevada, in 2008 that shook the area over a two-month stretch with increasingly strong temblors leading to a magnitude 5 quake that caused moderate damage in the area,
4.8 quake shakes Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas - A magnitude-4.8 earthquake Wednesday shook up parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas, the strongest of eight temblors that rattled the seismically active region over 24 hours.
TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.
HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
Ontario and Quebec hit by Arctic blast - Frigid temperatures and snow have expanded into Ontario and Quebec as a wave of cold air moves east. Snow has begun falling in the north of Ontario, and freezing rain is forecast in parts of Quebec. The sharply cooler temperatures are a result of frigid air pushed in by a powerful storm that hit Alaska with hurricane-force winds.
Some areas of the US and Canada have seen temperatures fall by as much as 22C (40F) in days. Almost three feet (92cm) of snow fell in Michigan's upper peninsula on Monday and Tuesday, while up to 18in fell in northern Wisconsin, and parts of central Minnesota saw more than 16in. The cold air is expected to sharply cool off eastern Canada and the eastern US later in the week, repeating the quick change felt across North America. Toronto could see some snow on Thursday, after highs of 17C on Tuesday.
Wintry weather has stopped further west in Canada, but cities like Edmonton and Calgary continued to feel the chill, expecting high temperatures of -14C. High winds and blowing snow on Wednesday caused several accidents in Winnipeg. Snow from the weather system has also been blamed for accidents that killed two in Minnesota.
Wyoming Hits -26°F in Arctic Blast; 3 Feet of Snow in Michigan's Upper Peninsula - A bitter cold blast of Arctic air more typical of late December is plunging south over the Midwest, and will immerse most of the eastern two-thirds of the country in December-like cold for much of the coming week. Casper, Wyoming bottomed out Wednesday morning at a numbing -26°F, their coldest November temperature since weather records began in 1937. Casper's previous November record cold temperature was -21°F, set on Nov. 23, 1985.
Laramie, Wyoming hit -22°F Wednesday morning, a record low for the date, and Yellowstone hit -20°F. The storm brought very strong winds with it, with several mountaintop locations recording wind gusts in excess of 80 mph earlier this week: 81 mph at Pikes Peak, Colorado, and 84 mph at Snowbasin, Utah. According to the Wednesday morning NOAA Storm Summary, a whopping three feet of snow (36.1") fell at Ishpeming in Michigan's Upper Peninsula over the past three days, and numerous locations in Michigan received more than 20" of snow, including Marquette (20") and Negaunee (32.5".)
Snow amounts in North Central Minnesota were as high as 16.5", and northern Wisconsin got a peak of 26" at Gile. The storm and associated intense cold is being triggered by an usually extreme jet stream pattern, featuring a sharp ridge of high pressure over Alaska and a deep trough of low pressure diving to the south over the Central United States. This extreme jet stream pattern is due, in part, to the influence of Super Typhoon Nuri, which caused a ripple effect on the jet stream after the typhoon became one of the most powerful extratropical storms ever recorded in the waters to the west of Alaska last Saturday.
HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS
World is crossing malnutrition red line, report warns. Most countries in the world are facing a serious public health problem as a result of malnutrition, a report warns.
The Global Nutrition Report said every nation except China had crossed a "malnutrition red line", suffering from too much or too little nutrition. Globally, malnutrition led to "11% of GDP being squandered as a result of lives lost, less learning, less earning and days lost to illness." Malnutrition is an invisible thing, unless it is very extreme. This invisibility stops action happening but it does not stop bad things happening to the children. It does not stop preventing the children's brains from developing; it does not stop their immune systems from not developing. It is a silent crisis and we are trying to raise the awareness of the extent of malnutrition and the damage it does."
The UN World Food Programme estimates that poor nutrition causes nearly half of deaths in children aged under five - 3.1 million children each year.
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Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
**Do a man dirt, yourself you hurt.**
Dostoevsky
LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.2 NORTHWEST OF KURIL ISLANDS
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.3 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.0 LAKE TANGANYIKA REGION
Yesterday, 11/10/14 -
5.2 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.6 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.0 OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z
5.4 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.5 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
6.1 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.4 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.0 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
11/9/14 -
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
11/8/14 -
5.2 GREECE
5.3 FIJI REGION
TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.
El Niño Temperatures Highest Since 2012, but NOAA Drops El Niño Odds - NOAA dropped their odds of an El Niño event forming this winter from 67% in their October outlook to 58% in their November outlook, but a surge of warm water over the equatorial Eastern Pacific over the past week could signal the onset of El Niño.
HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
The winter of 2014 - 2015 is off to an early start over the Northern Plains, where a December-like blast of Arctic air is bringing heavy snows and wintery cold. The early season cold air outbreak is due, in part, to the influence of Super Typhoon Nuri, which caused a ripple effect on the jet stream when the remains of the typhoon "bombed" over the weekend into one of the most intense extratropical storms ever observed in the waters west of Alaska.
This superstorm forced the jet stream to bulge far to the north over western North America, bringing a strong ridge of high pressure responsible for NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES in California, Nevada, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Washington over the weekend. A compensating southwards dip in the jet is now materializing over the North Central U.S., where an UNUSUALLY POWERFUL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE is pushing southeastwards. This trough will give most of the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. high temperatures 10 - 20°F below average by late in the week.
Cold Snap Hits Upper Midwest, Rockies - Powerful Storm Heads East From Alaska, Dropping Temperatures and Leaving Heavy Snow.
Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook
Friday, November 7, 2014
**The beauty you see in me is a reflection of you.**
Rumi
LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 GREECE
5.2 ICELAND
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
6.6 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
5.4 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
Yesterday, 11/4/14 -
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
VOLCANOES -
Philippines - Mayon Volcano’s current condition remains unstable due to slow but sustained ground deformation of the edifice by subsurface magma since the start of unrest this year. This is indicated by sustained swelling or inflation of the edifice, as measured by precise leveling on October 20-27, relative to both the third week of October 2014 and baseline measurements beginning 2010.
Electronic tilt data from the continuous network on the northwest flank similarly indicate continuing inflation of the edifice since August 2014, succeeding a previous inflation event in June to July 2014. These inflation events correspond to batches of magma (approximately 107 cubic meters) slowly being intruded at depth but that have yet to be erupted at the crater, and therefore posing threat of eventual hazardous eruption at an unknown time in the near future.
Mayon Volcano’s alert status remains at Alert Level 3. At this present stage, potentially eruptible magma has already been intruded and continues to be intruded beneath the edifice. At any given time in the following weeks to months, this magma can eventually be erupted quietly as lava flows or explosively as vertical eruption columns and pyroclastic flows or both.
TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.
A RARE "Medicane" - a hybrid storm with characteristics of both a tropical storm and an extratropical storm - formed over the South Central Mediterranean Sea on Friday and moved over the island of Malta, bringing them tropical storm- like conditions.
Winds at the Luqa, Malta Airport looked suspiciously like what one would observe with a tropical storm passing overhead - a double peak with a near-calm in between, with the pressure falling to 984 mb during the calm. Winds peaked in Malta at 47 mph, gusting to 66 mph, at 6:37 pm local time, and the island was lashed with flooding rains. At least one funnel cloud was also observed.
A Personal Weather Station on the north coast of Malta recorded sustained winds of 69 mph, gusting to 96 mph, with a minimum pressure of 979 mb. Lampedusa e Linosa, Italy, an island between Malta and Tunisa: sustained at 53 mph, gusting to 84 mph. A PWS on Linosa Island recorded a minimum pressure of 982 mb and wind gust to 61 mph. As of late Friday night, the storm was moving northwards along the east coast of Sicily, Italy, bringing them heavy rain and strong winds. (photos & video at link)
Much of Italy remains on extreme weather alert - Disruption continues, passer-by hurt as tree falls in Rome. Much of Italy remained on maximum weather alert on Friday as the wave of storms and torrential rain that has caused huge disruption and floods in many areas continued.
Schools in Rome reopened as the level of alert there was lowered from red to orange, but students in other parts of the country, including the city of Frosinone near the capital and Catania in Sicily, had the day off as a precaution with storms forecast to arrive. Disruption also continued in Rome, despite the lowering of the alert, with floods causing one metro station to close on Friday, after four were temporarily shut on Thursday, and a woman passer-by was hurt when a tree fell amid torrential rain. The bad weather also contributed to major traffic congestion in the city, although the mayhem that had been feared due to "water bombs" of torrential rain did not materialise. This led to major controversy as to whether the authorities' decision to close Rome's schools and monuments on Thursday was excessive.
The bad weather system, which hit northern Italy first this week, causing massive damage and flooding in the Tuscan city of Carrara, has extended southwards. Strong winds and rain lashed Calabria and Puglia, while sea connections between Naples and the islands of Capri were suspended.
Alaska storm becomes STRONGEST IN BERING SEA HISTORY - A massive storm in the Bering Sea, off the western Alaska coast and to the east of Russia, strengthened enough to be considered the strongest storm that the turbulent region has ever seen. It may not be an official record, however, as the minimum central pressure of 924 millibars (mb) was estimated by meteorologists, since the storm is over the open ocean off the Kamchatka Peninsula.
The previous record-lowest sea level pressure in a Bering Sea storm was 925 mb, set in October 1977 in Dutch Harbor, Alaska. This storm also likely sets a record for the strongest storm observed in the North Pacific Ocean, although the relatively sparse data for that region makes it possible that there were some stronger systems that were missed by ships or surface observing stations. In general, the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm.
The Bering Sea storm, which was accurately predicted by all the major computer models in use by forecasters worldwide, underwent a period of rapid intensification that is known as "bombogenesis," which means its central air pressure dropped by at least 24 mb in 24 hours. In this case, the storm's pressure dropped by far more than that, as it exploded from a 970 mb low pressure area on Thursday to a 924 mb monster by late Friday night, local time.
The storm contains the remnants of Typhoon Nuri, which was once the second-most intense typhoon of the 2014 Northwest Pacific season. Nuri's energy combined with an UNUSUALLY STRONG JET STREAM to create the conditions necessary for a monster storm near Alaska. The typhoon and the ongoing massive storm are going to help usher in a dramatic weather pattern change across North America, pushing unusually mild air into Alaska and northern Canada, while ejecting wave after wave of brutally cold air into much of the eastern U.S.
The closest weather-observing buoy to the storm center, which was still at least 200 miles away from the center, was reporting a pressure of 948 mb just before 5 a.m., Alaska time. In comparison, the lowest air pressure reading during Hurricane Sandy when it made landfall in New Jersey was 940 mb.
The storm has brought hurricane-force winds and extraordinarily high waves to several of the westernmost islands in the Aleutian Island chain. These effects occurred despite that fact that the storm reached its peak intensity hundreds of miles to the northwest of these islands, closer to Russia than Alaska. Shemya, Alaska, has been rocked by more than 24 straight hours of sustained winds greater than 40 miles per hour, with frequent gusts close to 100 miles per hour.
The storm will help reconfigure the jet stream, which is a river of air at high altitudes that blows from west to east across the Northern Hemisphere, from Alaska all the way to Europe in the coming days. A major dip, or trough, in the jet stream is forecast to form over the Midwest and East Coast, allowing a piece of — yes, you guessed it — the polar vortex to slip southward. This will result in UNUSUAL COLD, and potentially snowy conditions in some areas, for at least the next two weeks. (GRAPHICS AT LINK)
SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -
Floods displace at least 6000 after heavy rain in northern Haiti, Dominican Republic - In the Dominican Republic, authorities say more than 2,000 people were displaced by floods and mudslides. The storm is blamed for 12 deaths in the two countries and Puerto Rico.
HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
Arctic Blast via Polar Vortex to Chill 42 US States - As the polar vortex gets displaced to the south, the door will open for arctic air to plunge over the most of the United States as the new week progresses. Only the Southwest, Hawaii, Alaska and South Florida will escape the grip of the upcoming arctic blast that the polar vortex can be blamed for.
"The polar vortex is a large pocket of very cold air, typically the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere, which sits over the polar region. Occasionally, this pocket of very cold air can get dislodged farther south than normal, leading to cold outbreaks in Canada and the U.S."
For this current outbreak, the harshest cold in relation to normal will encompass the northern Rockies and Plains. However, temperatures will also plummet throughout the Northwest and to the Gulf Coast and I-95 corridor. The arctic blast will drop into the northern Rockies on Monday, accompanied by a snowstorm on its leading edge, then will spread across the Northwest and Plains through Wednesday.
EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -
Brazil's biggest city desperate for water as drought causes problems for more than 10 million people in southeast. Sao Paulo is suffering THE WORST DROUGHT TO HIT SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL IN MORE THAN EIGHT DECADES.
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Thursday, November 6, 2014
**Nothing in this world is harder than speaking the truth, nothing easier than flattery.**
Dostoevsky
LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.3 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
Yesterday, 11/5/14 -
5.1 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 GUAM REGION
11/4/14 -
5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.2 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
Oregon - Earthquake swarm near Lakeview: 'Slight' increase in likelihood of larger quake, scientists say. Seismologists in Nevada, Oregon and California continue to monitor an intense swarm of earthquakes about 40 miles southeast of Lakeview, Oregon, in the Nevada desert.
The magnitude 4.6 temblor late Tuesday night was followed by several quakes or magnitude 3 or greater, officials said. The area is so remote only four people reported feeling Tuesday's earthquake. There have been earthquakes of magnitude 4 or greater in the same area in the past week, and 42 quakes greater than magnitude 3 in the past three months. All told, there have been 719 earthquakes in the area, mostly magnitude 2 to 3, since mid-July.
Does the swarm of earthquakes signal that a larger, more damaging quake is in the offing? Using historic data as a model, scientists said the swarm of quakes does slightly increase the likelihood of a larger earthquake. The quakes are occurring in an area of north Washoe County in Nevada that's not only remote, but also contains a sparse network of automated monitors. Those add to the difficulty of tracking seismic activity.
The Great Basin area where the swarm is occurring is crisscrossed by fault lines. In 1968, a swarm of earthquakes near Adel, 30 miles east of Lakeview, included three earthquakes with a magnitude of 5. The Adel quakes caused moderate damage. A similar swarm to Adel and the recent spate of temblors also resembles the "Mogul-Somersett" swarm in west Reno in 2008. That swarm included a magnitude 5 quake that also caused moderate damage.
Nevada includes "one of the most seismically active regions in the United States. Along with California and Alaska, Nevada ranks in the top three states subject to the most large earthquakes over the last 150 years." At 6:16 a.m. Feb. 21, 2008, a magnitude 6 quake near Wells, Nevada, injured three people, heavily damaged 20 buildings and damaged another 700 structures. Nevada experienced a significant round of major quakes between between 1915 and 1954, finishing with magnitude 6.6 and 7.1 earthquakes in 1954. The area where the sequence of earthquakes occurred was named the Central Nevada Seismic Belt. (videos at link)
VOLCANOES -
Some Hawaii Residents Are Trying To Fight Lava With Garden Hose - On Hawaii's Big Island, a 2,000-degree river of lava is slowly crawling through the Pahoa Village, threatening the homes of 800 or more residents. While state and government officials have intentionally done nothing to stop, divert or obstruct the lava flow (citing the potential risks and cultural sensitivities), some homeowners are trying anything they can to save their homes from fiery destruction. (video at link)
TROPICAL STORMS -
* In the North Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 05b (Five) is located approximately 450 nm east of Chennai, India.
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As It Turns Extra-Tropical, Typhoon Nuri Could Challenge All-Time Record - For 24 hours over the weekend, Nuri was a category 5 monster storm with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph, tying with Typhoon Vongfong as the strongest cyclone of the season.
But Nuri may actually make a name for itself after it loses its tropical characteristics when it moves north into the Bering Sea. When it gets there, all the warm, tropical air it's pushing around will crash into a mountain of cold air and cause a violent explosion of meteorological energy that could propel this storm into history. The National Weather Service in Anchorage says that during that so-called "bombogenesis" the storm's central pressure — an important measure of intensity — will deepen from 970 MB late Thursday to between 918 to 922 MB late Friday. The Aleutian Islands will be pummeled with 40 to 50 foot waves and wind gusts of up to 100 mph. This storm is so strong that it will also cause the jet stream to plunge south, bringing cold temperatures to a huge part of the U.S.
HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
Long Range U. S. Winter Outlook - COLDER THAN NORMAL GREAT LAKES - NEW ENGLAND AND GULF COAST. A colder than normal winter, especially during the first half appears likely for the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and New England region, while below normal Temps are also likely across the entire Gulf coast region. However, while Temps will likely average below normal, it’s very unlikely that this winter will be even remotely close to last years’ frigid winter.
In contrast to the east, the western half of the nation should see another unusually mild winter – but should be significantly stormier than last year – with above normal Precip expected from northern California to Washington State as the mean storm track shifts further south compared to last year - especially by January. Near normal Precip appears likely for southern California, allowing for at least some recovery from the extreme drought of the last several years.
The colder pattern that is now developing across the US is partially the result of an enormous and very powerful West Pacific cyclone developing from the remnant of Typhoon Nuri (with the GFS forecasting a central pressure of 918mb by SAT morning). This super storm is building a strong ridge ahead of it – with an even stronger downstream TROF expected to form over North America next week. These type of strong tropical storm forcing mechanisms on the overall hemispheric wind pattern generally last 10-15 days – but rarely, for longer periods - IF there is a lack of pattern forcing from the Eastern Pacific.
Another, albeit small, input to the Long Range Outlook is a fairly well studied phenomena related to the early development of a large AND unusually deep snow cover in Siberia during October. Absent a strong Pacific ENSO event influence, a deep Siberian snow cover in the Fall often leads to a cold North American winter as the large, low level source of cold air over Siberia ‘sets up’ a jet stream pattern that favors deep, arctic air mass intrusions into much of North America. Unfortunately, real-time snow depth reports from the Euro-Asian region (and especially Siberia!) is simply not available. Snow extent (derived from Satellite imagery) is, however, available on a daily basis, and current snow extent (and arctic basin ice coverage) is slightly greater than at the same time last year, and significantly more widespread than in OCT 2012.
Wunderground.com is forecasting a colder winter than that given in the official NOAA outlook, but not nearly as cold as most every other private forecast services are calling for. [MUCH more info at link]
SPACE WEATHER -
SOLAR STORM CLOUDS MISS EARTH - Sunspot AR2205 is crackling with M-class solar flares. The blasts have hurled multiple CMEs into space, but so far none poses a threat to Earth. Because AR2205 is not yet directly facing Earth, the CMEs are sailing wide of our planet. sMore eruptions are in the offing. AR2205 has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong flares and CMEs. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of M-flares and a 25% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.
HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS
It's Over: Texas Ebola Outbreak About to End - As of midnight Friday, it will have been 21 days since anyone got Ebola or was in contact with someone who got Ebola.
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Tuesday, November 4, 2014
**Many men go fishing all their lives without knowing that it is not fish that they are after.**
Henry David Thoreau
LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.2 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
Yesterday, 11/3/14 -
5.0 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
6.2 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
5.1 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.5 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.3 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
11/2/14 -
5.3 ZAMBIA
6.0 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION
5.4 ICELAND
11/1/14 -
5.4 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.3 OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z.
7.1 FIJI REGION
6.0 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.6 EASTER ISLAND REGION
A magnitude-6.9 earthquake shook the Pacific Ocean near Fiji shortly before 8 a.m. local time Sunday, but no tsunami was expected. The quake — centered about 88 miles northeast of the island of Ndoi — was about 260 miles deep. Fiji is an archipelago about 3,100 miles southwest of Hawaii.
TROPICAL STORMS -
* In the Eastern Pacific -
- Tropical storm Vance is weakening; located about 240 mi (385 km) SW of Mazatlan, Mexico. The center of Vance is expected to move near or over the western coast of Mexico on Wednesday.
* In the Western Pacific -
Typhoon Nuri is located approximately 245 nm west of Iwo To, Japan.
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Typhoon Nuri Poised to become an Alaskan Super Storm; Vance Drenching Mexico. Typhoon Nuri lost its "Super" designation Monday night, after the top winds fell below 150 mph, but remains poised to transition this weekend to ONE OF THE STRONGEST EXTRATROPICAL STORMS EVER TO AFFECT ALASKA.
Nuri intensified from a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds to a very high-end Category 5 with 180 mph winds on Sunday, tying Super Typhoon Vongfong for strongest tropical cyclone of 2014. Satellite loops show that Nuri remains a formidable storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops and a prominent eye. Fortunately, Nuri is not expected to directly threaten any land areas, with the storm passing far enough from Japan on Thursday to keep the heavy rain area out to sea.
However, once Nuri loses its tropical characteristics and moves into the Bering Sea to the west of Alaska on Friday, a very powerful jet stream will interact with ex-Nuri and cause it to rapidly intensify into ONE OF THE STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EVER OBSERVED IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. Ex-Nuri will bring substantial impacts to the Aleutian Islands and coastal areas of southwest Alaska over the weekend, with the threat of damaging winds near hurricane force and a significant storm surge.
Hurricane Vance in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico is steadily weakening as high wind shear of 35 - 40 knots tears into the storm. Satellite images show that Vance is barely recognizable as a hurricane, with an elongated disorganized appearance. Wind shear is expected to rise even higher before Vance reaches the Mexican coast late Wednesday morning, and this may be sufficient to tear Vance apart before landfall. Regardless of whether or not Vance makes it to the coast as a tropical storm, flooding rains will be the primary threat; heavy rains of 4 - 8" will affect the Mexican coast northwest of Puerto Vallarta on Tuesday and Wednesday.
SPACE WEATHER -
Fireball spotted in skies from Chicago to Japan - There were nearly 400 reports of a fireball in more than a dozen states, including Alabama, Virginia, Tennessee and Illinois. Meanwhile in western Japan, there were multiple sightings of "a sparkling light racing across the sky. It's not clear if the sightings across the U.S. and Japan were of the same object, though it's not likely. The operations manager for the American Meteor Society said that while the object on the East Coast "was definitely a fireball," the one in Chicago's sky "was most likely manmade" — possibly "a flare from a boat on Lake Michigan."[video at link]
Arriving only a little late for Halloween, a flare-y sunspot is emerging over the sun's northeastern limb. In 24 hours AR2205 has unleashed at least four M-class flares including an M6-flare recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory on Nov. 3rd.
The explosions have hurled multiple CMEs into space. Not one of the clouds is heading our way. Earth is outside the line of fire. This could change in the days ahead, however, as the sun's rotation turns the active region toward our planet.
NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of M-flares during the next 24 hours. Those odds seem low considering the ongoing activity. In fact, another M-flare is almost certain and an X-flare could be in the offing, too.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2014
**Short quake report today as I try to get back on track, once again.**
LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
This morning -
5.4 ICELAND
Yesterday, 10/20/14 -
5.7 COLOMBIA-ECUADOR BORDER REGION
5.3 TONGA
5.0 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.7 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION
10/19/14 -
5.3 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.3 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.9 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
10/18/4 -
5.0 PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDS REGION
5.0 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.0 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.3 ICELAND
5.1 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
10/17/14 -
5.0 NORTHWEST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
5.1 TONGA
5.2 JAVA, INDONESIA
10/16/14 -
5.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 TONGA
5.4 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.1 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.1 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
10/15/14 -
5.5 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.8 IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
5.5 ICELAND
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
10/14/14 -
5.3 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.0 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
6.1 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.0 NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA
7.3 NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
10/13/14 -
5.3 BANDA SEA
5.4 SOUTHERN PERU
5.7 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.
5.0 SOUTH OF PANAMA
5.0 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
Monday, October 13, 2014
**Don't tell me the sky's the limit, when there are footprints on the moon.**
Paul Brandt
LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.3 BANDA SEA
5.4 SOUTHERN PERU
5.7 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.
5.0 SOUTH OF PANAMA
5.0 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
Yesterday, 10/12/14 -
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.4 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.2 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
5.0 ICELAND
5.5 REYKJANES RIDGE
5.4 REYKJANES RIDGE
5.1 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
10/11/14 -
5.2 OAXACA, MEXICO
5.5 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
6.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.0 BANDA SEA
TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details. No current tropical storms.
*In the Atlantic -
Hurricane Gonzalo is located about 20 mi...30 km se of St. Martin. Additional strengthening likely.
*In the Central Pacific -
Tropical depression Two-C is located about 920 mi...1480 km ESE of Hilo, Hawaii.
* In the Western Pacific Ocean -
Tropical storm 19w (Vongfong) is located approximately 78 nm north-northwest of Yokosuka, Japan.
---------------------------------
A strengthening tropical storm - Gonzalo - takes aim at the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Gonzalo gained strength as it took aim at a swath of the Caribbean including Puerto Rico, threatening to dump heavy rains that could unleash mudslides and flash floods.
As it approached the warm waters of the Caribbean, the storm's impending arrival prompted wary officials to post hurricane or tropical storm warnings and watches stretching from the French island of Guadeloupe to the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico. Rain-swollen Gonzalo was expected to move through parts of the Leeward Islands by early Monday, producing 4 inches to 8 inches (10 centimeters to 20 centimeters) of pelting rainfall, with some isolated areas potentially getting deluged with as much as 12 inches (30 centimeters).
Hundreds of miles (kilometers) north of the Caribbean, Fay strengthened briefly into a hurricane as it tracked away from Bermuda before returning to tropical storm strength late Sunday. It earlier lashed the British chain with heavy rain and gusting winds. There were no immediate reports of injuries as Bermuda authorities assessed damage and discontinued storm watches and warnings.
Fay, which had maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 kph), disrupted power for more than 27,000 customers of the Bermuda Electric Light Company. The utility is the sole supplier of electricity for the territory of roughly 65,000 inhabitants. Forecasters said a cold front was likely to absorb Fay on Monday.
Typhoon Vongfong - The strongest storm to hit Japan this year battered the southern islands of Kyushu and Shikoku early on Monday, brought heavy rain to Tokyo and caused extensive travel disruption. Typhoon Vongfong has forced the cancellation of more than 500 domestic flights. (9 photos at link)
Gonzalo Hurricane Strength - 24 Dead, $1.6 Billion in Damage in India From Hudhud. Hurricane warnings are flying in the British Virgin Islands as strengthening Tropical Storm Gonzalo marches west-northwest at 10 mph though the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands.
The storm passed over Antigua Island between 10 am - 11 am AST on Monday, and sustained winds at Antigua hit 45 mph at 7 am AST before the station stopped reporting. NHC is still able to get wind information from the island, and the island reported a sustained wind of 67 mph gusting to 88 mph late Monday morning. Winds at nearby Barbuda were sustained at 43 mph gusting to 61 mph. Gonzalo should steadily intensify through the week, and has the potential to be a major Category 3 hurricane by Friday.
Tropical Cyclone Hudhud has dissipated after it powered ashore near Visakhapatnam in the Andhra Pradesh state of India at 05 UTC (3 am EDT) Sunday as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 135 mph. At least 24 deaths are being blamed on the cyclone: 21 in Andhra Pradesh, and 3 in the neighboring Odisha state. Preliminary damage estimates are at least $1.64 billion (Rs 10,000 crore), with the heaviest damage in Visakhapatnam, a port city of 2 million, which received a direct hit.
HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS:
The Ebola epidemic threatens the "very survival" of societies and could lead to failed states, the World Health Organization (WHO) warns.
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Friday, October 10, 2014
**Praise and criticism are like Bubblegum.
Chew on both of them but don't swallow either of them.**
LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
This morning -
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 REYKJANES RIDGE
5.6 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
Yesterday, 10/9/14 -
5.4 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.1 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.6 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.2 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
6.5 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
7.1 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
VOLCANOES -
Unrest within Mayon volcano prompted Philippine authorities to move nearby residents and farm animals away from areas threatened by what appeared to be an impending eruption. Approximately 55,000 people have been relocated since the 8,081-foot mountain began rumbling. Evacuees have been housed in makeshift centers, typically schools and other government buildings. Mayon’s crater had expanded significantly since late September due to rising lava, which has cast an eerie glow visible for miles as the molten flow emerged from Mayon’s summit.
Indonesia’s Mount Sinabung volcano sent villagers feeling on Sunday when it erupted. ‘Just over a year ago, an eruption from Mount Sinabung killed 14 people and forced more than 33,000 others to evacuate their homes. The volcano began erupting again on Sunday, emitting pyroclastic flows that were the largest for five months. Local people panicked, including those who are still living in evacuation shelters since the volcano began erupting on September 15 last year, because of the size of the flows and clouds of volcanic ash, which extended to Berastagi city, 13 kilometres from Sinabung. The volcano erupted again in February this year, killing 17 people, most of whom were students.
TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.
* In the Western Pacific Ocean -
Typhoon 19w (Vongfong) is located approximately 220 nm south-southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan.
*In the North Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 03b (Hudhud) is located approximately 250 nm south-east of visakhapatnam, India.
---------------------------------
Subtropical Depression 7 Headed Towards Bermuda, but 90L is the One to Watch -Subtropical Depression Seven formed in the Atlantic at 11 am EDT Friday. The depression, located about 590 miles south of Bermuda, was headed northwest at 10 mph, and Bermuda is the only land area the storm poses a threat to. A tropical storm watch has been posted for the island, and the 11 am EDT Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 14% chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, with the strongest winds expected to affect the island Saturday evening into Sunday morning.
Pay attention to Invest 90L east of the Lesser Antilles - An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave located about 700 hundred miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday morning has been designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center. This disturbance has the potential to be trouble, and needs to be watched carefully. 90L's west-northwest trajectory will carry it to a point about 100 - 200 miles north of Puerto Rico on Monday, and near the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.
Typhoon Vongfong giving Okinawa an EPIC BATTERING - Japan's Okinawa Island is receiving an epic battering from Typhoon Vongfong as the powerful storm steams slowly northward at 9 mph. Cooler waters, higher wind shear, and an eyewall replacement cycle had weakened Vongfong to Category 4 strength with 135 mph winds as of 8 am EDT Friday. Satellite loops show that Vongfong is still an impressive storm with a very large area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent 17-mile diameter eye. Tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph of greater have buffeted Okinawa since 5:39 am EDT Friday (6:39 pm local time), and this large and slow-moving typhoon will keep tropical storm-force winds blowing on the island for an EXTRAORDINARILY LONG PERIOD OF TIME - over 48 straight hours, until approximately 10 am EDT (11 pm local time) Sunday. Wind gusts as high as 81 mph have already been measured on Okinawa, along with sustained winds as high as 59 mph.
Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Hudhud a threat to India - Category 1 Tropical Cyclone Hudhud in the Bay of Bengal is steadily intensifying as it heads west-northwest towards India, with sustained winds estimated at 85 mph at 8 am EDT Friday. intensification into at least a Category 2 cyclone appears likely before Hudhud hits the coast of northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur on Sunday.
Atlantic hurricane season weakest so far since 1983 - This year's Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be one of the weakest in decades with only five named storms so far. A broad low pressure system in the Atlantic Ocean has a high chance of forming a tropical or subtropical depression during the next five days.
EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -
Drought Monitor: No improvement in California's drought - This week's U.S. Drought Monitor map, which was released Thursday morning, shows how dire drought conditions have become across California. Water conservation efforts across drought-stricken California hit a new high in August, cutting use by 11.5 percent.
HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS:
World leaders cry for help fighting Ebola - Leaders of African nations ravaged by Ebola are stepping up their pleas for help as the global response to the crisis continues to lag.
Number of people killed in Ebola outbreak rises above 4,000 - The number of deaths attributed to the Ebola outbreak has risen above 4,000, most of them in West Africa.
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Thursday, October 9, 2014
LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)
This morning -
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.6 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
Yesterday -
10/8/14 -
5.2 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
6.5 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
7.1 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.6 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
6.0 GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
Super typhoon 19w (Vongfong) is located approximately 384 nm south-southeast of Kadena Air Base.
In the North Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 03b (Hudhud) is located approximately 516 nm south of kolkata, India.
Super Typhoon Vongfong Headed Towards Okinawa; 99L May Affect Bermuda. The winds are rising on Japan's Okinawa Island as Earth's most powerful tropical cyclone of 2014, Super Typhoon Vongfong, steams north-northwest at 8 mph. Vongfong peaked in intensity Tuesday with top sustained winds of 180 mph, and had weakened below Category 5 strength with 150 mph winds as of 11 am EDT Thursday.
Satellite loops show that Vongfong is still an impressive storm with a large area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent 30-mile diameter eye, but the cloud tops have warmed since Wednesday, and the area covered by the typhoon's heaviest thunderstorms has shrunk. Vongfong has two concentric eyewalls, and it is likely that the typhoon is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall will collapse and be replaced by the outer eyewall. This process should cause further weakening today.
Okinawa at risk of a direct hit from Vongfong - Vongfong began a turn to the north on Wednesday morning, and is likely to pass over or just to the north of Japan's Okinawa Island near 18 UTC (2 pm EDT) Saturday. With the typhoon moving over waters that will gradually cool, and with wind shear expected to rise to the moderate range, weakening to Category 3 status is likely before Vongfong makes its closest pass by Okinawa.
Rapid weakening should ensue as Vongfong approaches the main Japanese island of Kyushu this weekend, with Category 1 strength likely at landfall. In their 00Z Thursday runs, the European and GFS models predicted landfall would occur on Kyushu between 5 pm - 11 pm U.S. EDT time Sunday evening (21 UTC Sunday - 03 UTC Monday.) Heavy rains from Typhoon Vongfong are expected to fall on soils already saturated by Typhoon Phanfone's rains last week, which could lead to much more severe flooding than was observed for Phanfone. Vongfong will also be moving slower than Phanfone was, potentially leading to higher rainfall amounts.
Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Hudhud a threat to India - intensification into at least a Category 2 cyclone appears likely before Hudhud hits the coast of northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur on Sunday, October 12, between 00 - 06 UTC. Odisha was struck in 2013 by Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Phailin, which killed 45 people and did $700 million in damage. This death toll was extremely low, considering this is a region where 10,000 people died in a similar-strength cyclone in 1999.
The India Meteorological Department provided excellent early warning information for Phailin. On Thursday morning, IMD was forecasting that Hudhud would have sustained winds of 130 - 140 kph (81 - 87 mph) at landfall, making it a strong Category 1 storm. JTWC was forecasting a stronger storm - Category 3 with 120 mph winds. IMD predicted a storm surge of 1 - 2 meters (3.3 - 6.6 feet) would occur near and to the right of where the center makes landfall.
Invest 99L in the Atlantic a possible threat to Bermuda - An area of disturbed weather associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, located a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico on Thursday morning, was designated Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center on Thursday morning. Invest 99L was headed northwest to north-northwest at about 10 mph.
Satellite loops showed plenty of spin, since 99L was associated with a non-tropical low pressure system that had already established a vigorous circulation. 99L's heavy thunderstorms were poorly organized and limited to the east side of the center, due to strong upper-level winds from the west pushing dry air into the system. Conditions are favorable for development, but disturbances getting their start from a cold-cored upper level low like 99L have plenty of cold, dry air aloft, which retards development into a tropical system. The 8 am Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that conditions would remain favorable for slow development through Saturday.
SPACE WEATHER -
LESS QUIET, MORE FLARES - Sunspot AR2181 is growing and beginning to crackle with impulsive M-class solar flares. This development could break several days of quiet on the sun and lead to a more active weekend.
The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) around Earth was tipping south on Oct. 8th, an arrangement that opens a crack in Earth magnetosphere. Solar wind pouring through the gap will likely spark more auroras around the Arctic Circle.
On Oct. 9, the All Sky Fireball Network reported 53 fireballs. (53 sporadics)
Wednesday, October 8, 2014
**Being decent is better than being right.**
LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
This morning -
5.6 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
6.0 GULF OF CALIFORNIA
Yesterday, 10/7/14 -
5.0 TAIWAN
5.0 PAGAN REG., N. MARIANA ISLANDS
6.1 YUNNAN, CHINA
5.5 ICELAND
5.2 OFF COAST OF TARAPACA, CHILE
5.4 TARAPACA, CHILE
10/6/14 -
5.7 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA
5.1 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
5.1 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.
* In the Western Pacific Ocean -
Super typhoon 19w (Vongfong) is located approximately 510 nm south-southeast of Kadena Air Base.
*In the North Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 03b (Hudhud) is located approximately 562 nm south of Chittagong, India. Forecast to make landfall along the East Coast of India.
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Earth's most powerful tropical cyclone since 2013's devastating Super Typhoon Haiyan, Super Typhoon Vongfong, peaked in intensity Tuesday with top sustained winds of 180 mph, and has weakened slightly. Super Typhoon Vongfong is a Threat to Japan; Tropical Cyclone Hudhud Menaces India. Vongfong is Earth's fourth Category 5 storm of the year, and the second in the Western Pacific. (maps & more at link)
Quiet in the Atlantic - Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis show nothing developing over the next five days in the Atlantic, though we should watch an area of disturbed weather between the Bahamas and Bermuda that could develop early next week. If development does occur, Bermuda would likely be the only land area affected by the storm.
EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -
The pilot of an air tanker battling a wildfire in Yosemite National Park in California has died after the plane crashed into a canyon wall on Tuesday.
SPACE WEATHER -
Skywatchers awed by 'Blood Moon' - A total lunar eclipse has been visible in much of the Americas and East Asia, the second such event of the year.
HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS:
The first person to be diagnosed with Ebola within the US, a man who contracted it in Liberia, has died in hospital in Dallas.
Five US airports to enhance screenings for Ebola - Travelers from West Africa arriving at five large airports in the U.S. will have their temperature taken and face questions about their health in an effort to prevent the spread of Ebola, federal officials said Wednesday.
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Sunday, September 14, 2014
LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
This morning -
5.0 TONGA
5.5 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
Yesterday, 9/13/14 -
5.3 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
5.2 TONGA
5.0 ICELAND
5.0 TAJIKISTAN
9/12/14 -
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.3 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.2 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.2 VANUATU
5.1 SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
After Napa earthquake, Silicon Valley looks to build high-tech alert system - Among the many things the Bay Area learned from the recent shaker near Napa is that UC Berkeley's earthquake warning system does indeed work for the handful of people who receive its messages, but the rest find out about a tremor only after it knocks them out of bed.
TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.
*In the Atlantic -
Hurricane Edouard is located about 860 mi (1385 km) NE of the northern Leeward Islands.
*In the Eastern Pacific -
Major Hurricane Odile expected to affect southern Baja California tonight and Monday, located about 140 mi (225 km) SSE of the southern tip of Baja California.
* In the Western Pacific Ocean -
Tropical storm Kalmaegi is located approximately 783 nm east of Hanoi, Vietnam.
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Typhoon Kalmaegi slams northern Philippines, cuts power lines - A strong typhoon slammed into the rice-producing Philippine northern region on Sunday, cutting power and communications lines and forcing people to flee to higher ground. Packing central winds of 130 kph and gusts of up to 160 kph, Typhoon Kalmaegi made landfall early evening Sunday in Isabela province, dumping heavy rains that soaked farms.
Halmaegi, known locally as "Luis", is moving west northwest at 22 kph, but is expected to weaken and lose speed as it will cross a mountainous region before exiting into the South China Sea. Typhoon alert levels were raised in 22 provinces, mostly in the northern and central plains of the main island of Luzon. People were warned against flash floods, landslides and storm surges reaching 2 metres in coastal areas.
On Sunday, civil aviation authorities grounded 24 domestic flights while the coast guard stopped ferries and fishing boats from going to sea. Soldiers were placed on alert to evacuated communities. "Some farmers have started to harvest rice and corn days before the typhoon." On Monday, some public offices and schools will be shut down because they will be used as temporary shelter areas.
Powerful Hurricane Odile aims at Mexico’s Baja - Hurricane Odile grew into a powerful Category 4 storm Sunday and took aim at the resort area of Los Cabos, prompting Mexican authorities to evacuate vulnerable coastal areas and prepare shelters for up to 30,000 people. The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Odile was on a track to pass close to or directly over the southern end of the Baja California Peninsula late Sunday and into Monday.
SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -
Asia floods - Kashmir valley 'submerged after floods'. Rescue efforts following the floods which have affected parts of Northern India and Pakistan have been disrupted by further rainfall. More than 400 people have died in landslides and flooding and hundreds of thousands of people remain trapped by floodwaters. India's air force has suspended rescue operations until the rain clears. Srinagar in Indian-administered Kashmir which is particularly badly hit. (video)
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Friday, September 12, 2014
**A man who lies to himself is often the first to take offense. And surely he knows that no one has offended him, and that he himself has invented the offense and told lies just for the beauty of it, that he has exaggerated for the sake of effect, that he has picked on a word and made a mountain out of a pea — he knows all of that, and still he is the first to take offense, he likes feeling offended, it gives him great pleasure, and thus he reaches the point of real hostility.**
- Dostoevsky
LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
This morning -
5.1 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.3 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.2 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.2 VANUATU
5.1 SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
Yesterday, 9/11/14 -
5.0 ICELAND
5.0 ICELAND
5.0 VANUATU
9/10/14 -
5.2 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.3 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 ICELAND
5.6 MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 SULU SEA
5.7 MOLUCCA SEA
5.2 SOUTHEAST INDIAN RIDGE
6.3 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
9/9/14 -
5.0 TONGA REGION
5.0 WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
5.4 MYANMAR-INDIA BORDER REGION
5.2 ICELAND
5.1 SULU ARCHIPELAGO, PHILIPPINES
9/8/14 -
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.4 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.3 OFF COAST OF JALISCO, MEXICO
9/7/14 -
5.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.1 FED. STATES OF MICRONESIA REGION
5.5 ICELAND
5.0 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
9/6/14 -
5.2 EASTER ISLAND REGION
6.0 OFF COAST OF JALISCO, MEXICO
5.0 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.8 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.1 EASTER ISLAND REGION
6.1 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 ICELAND
VOLCANOES -
Hawaii prepares for Kilauea Volcano's lava to cut off community on Big Island. Businesses in a small Hawaii town are facing a slow- motion disaster as lava from Kilauea volcano oozes toward roads connecting them.
While filming Papua New Guinea’s Mount Tavurvur from a passing boat, a tourist caught the active volcano erupting and then the shock, moments later, when the massive sound hits them. (video)
Iceland Volcanic Eruption Sending Toxic Gases Throughout Region - Foul-smelling gases from the Bardarbunga volcanic eruption in Iceland are pestering the region, reaching Norway and Finland more than a thousand kilometers away.
TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details. *In the Atlantic -
Tropical storm Edouard expected to stay out to sea, located about 1315 mi (2120 km) E of the northern Leeward Islands.
*In the East Pacific -
- Tropical Depression 16-E is moving more slowly north-northwestward with no change in strength, about 785 mi (1265 km) WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. The depression is forecast to become a remnant low by Sunday. day.
- Tropical storm Odile a little stronger, located about 250 mi (400 km) SW of Manzanillo, Mexico. On the forecast track, the center of Odile is expected to remain well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico through Saturday. Odile is expected to become a hurricane tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday. Swells from Odile are expected to begin affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a day or so.
* In the Western Pacific Ocean -
Tropical storm Kalmaegi is located approximately 492 nm east of Manila, Philippines.
---------------------------------
September 11 marks the halfway point of the Atlantic hurricane season (based on the past 100 years of data, 1914-2013) and we're doing much better than usual so far. Only four named storms have formed, with three becoming hurricanes (and no major hurricanes.)
An average Atlantic hurricane season has 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane by the mid-point of the season. The four storms so far in 2014 have inflicted much less punishment than usual for half of a hurricane season.
Hurricane Arthur made landfall in North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane then blasted the Maritime Provinces of Canada as a powerful hurricane-force extratropical storm, but damage was low by Category 2 hurricane standards - just $14 million, with most of the damage occurring in Canada. Hurricane Bertha caused two deaths along the U.S. East Coast due to rough surf and strong rip currents, but did insignificant damage as it recurved out to sea, just off the coast.
Hurricane Cristobal also did minimal damage, but killed a total of seven people - three swimmers in the U.S., and flood victims in Haiti (2), the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical Storm Dolly, which made landfall in northeastern Mexico on September 2 with 50 mph winds and torrential rains, killed one person and did millions in damage.
Residents of Hurricane Alley shouldn't assume the rest of the season will end with a whimper, though. All it takes is one bad hurricane to make a ruinous hurricane season. Recall that 2012's worst storm - Hurricane Sandy - didn't occur until the third week of October!
Central Atlantic Tropical Depression 6 does not appear to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, U.S. East Coast, or Bermuda. It remains to be seen if TD 6 will be a threat to the Canadian Maritime Provinces late next week.
Flood threat to Mexico from Tropical Storm Odile diminishes - In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Odile formed on Wednesday morning a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco. Satellite loops show that Odile has a large area of heavy thunderstorms that are slowly organizing, but the heavy rains of the storm are remaining just offshore of the Pacific coast of Mexico. If Odile follows the current projections from our two top track models, the GFS and European, these rains will remain offshore as the storm moves northwest, parallel to the coast. If the storm deviates to the right of its expected path, it will be capable of dumping 5 - 10" of rain along the coast from Acapulco to Puerto Vallarta.
Why has the Eastern Pacific been so active? - It's been a remarkably active hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific; Odile's formation gives the basin 15 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes so far this year. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year, with about 2/3 of that activity occurring by September 9.
Since July, the Eastern Pacific has had ocean temperatures about 0.6°C (1°F) above average and wind shear about 20% below average. The region has been dominated by moist, rising air and low pressure, leading to above average vertical instability. All of these factors are favorable for an active hurricane season.
The Atlantic and Eastern Pacific are usually out of phase with their hurricane seasons - when one is active, the other is inactive. This occurs because when the large-scale atmospheric circulation favors rising air and low pressure over one ocean basin, there must be high pressure and dry, sinking air elsewhere to compensate - which typically occurs over the neighboring ocean basin, suppressing hurricane activity there.
Tropical Depression 15 forms east of the Philippines - In the Western Pacific, Tropical Depression Fifteen is organizing in the waters east of the Philippines, and is on course to intensify into a typhoon and potentially affect the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Sunday. TD 15 will then potentially impact China early next week.
SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -
Heavy Rain Hits Japan - Emergency Alerts Issued in Hokkaido. The Japan Meteorological Agency on Thursday issued emergency alerts in western Hokkaido, forcing officials to order the evacuation of nearly one million people living near rivers.
Hundreds die in India, Pakistan after HEAVIEST RAIN IN 50 YEARS. The death toll from the heaviest rain to fall on Kashmir in 50 years rose to more than 400 on Tuesday.
Arizona - Heavy storms pounded the Phoenix area early Monday, flooding major freeways and small roads, leading to several water rescues and setting an ALL-TIME RECORD FOR RAINFALL in the city in a single day.
SPACE WEATHER -
STORM WARNING - Among space weather forecasters, confidence is building that Earth's magnetic field will receive a double-blow from a pair of CMEs on Sept. 12th. The two storm clouds were propelled in our direction by explosions in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2158 on Sept. 9th and 10th, respectively. Strong geomagnetic storms are possible on Sept. 12th and 13th as a result of the consecutive impacts. Sky watchers, even those at mid-latitudes, should be alert for auroras in the nights ahead.
Sunspot AR2158 erupted on Sept. 10th at 17:46 UT, producing an X1.6-class solar flare. A flash of ultraviolet radiation from the explosion ionized the upper layers of Earth's atmosphere, disturbing HF radio communications for more than an hour. More importantly, the explosion hurled a CME directly toward Earth.
Radio emissions from shock waves at the leading edge of the CME indicate that the cloud tore through the sun's atmosphere at speeds as high as 3,750 km/s. By the time it left the sun's atmosphere, however, the cloud had decelerated to 1,400 km/s. This makes it a fairly typical CME instead of a "super CME" as the higher speed might suggest.
Even with a downgrade in speed, this CME has the potential to trigger significant geomagnetic activity when it reaches Earth's magnetic field during the mid-to-late hours of Sept. 12th. NOAA forecasters estimate an almost-80% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Sept. 12-13.
Sunspots AR2157 and AR2158 have unstable magnetic fields that harbor energy for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimated a 40% chance of X-class flares and a whopping 85% chance of M-flares on Sept. 11th.
The X-flare of Sept 10th caused a radio blackout on Earth. Ironically, it also caused a blast of radio noise. Radio astronomers and hams in the Americas and across the Pacific Ocean heard static roaring from the loudspeakers of their shortwave receivers. "It was absolutely howling." Radio emissions like these are caused by shock waves in the sun's atmosphere.
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