Monday, March 31, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**The human mind prefers to be
spoon-fed with the thoughts of others,
but deprived of such nourishment it will, reluctantly,
begin to think for itself - and such thinking,
is original thinking and may have valuable results.**
Agatha Christie


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND

Yesterday, 3/30/14 -
5.4 WESTERN XIZANG

VOLCANOES -
Yellowstone Earthquake - Volcanic Eruption Not Expected After STRONGEST TREMOR IN 29 YEARS. Yellowstone National Park was shaken a 4.8 earthquake Sunday, but scientists say there is no concern that the quake will lead to an eruption.

Grímsvötn volcano (Iceland) - small glacial flood and earthquake swarm. A small jökulhlaup (glacier outburst flood) started yesterday from the subglacial lake Grímsvötn and has been discharging into the river Gígjukvísl.

Pumice from the underwater volcanic eruption 800km northeast of New Zealand washes up on Tasmanian beaches. Pumice stones created by what is believed to be the largest recorded underwater volcanic eruption have begun washing up on Tasmania's Eastern shore.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the South Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone Hellen is located approximately 240 nm north-northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar.
-----
Extremely dangerous Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Hellen is bearing down on Madagascar after an EXTRAORDINARY BURST OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION brought the cyclone from a 60 mph tropical storm to a high-end Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds in just 24 hours. Hellen is forecast to strike Madagascar as a very intense tropical cyclone at about 12:00 GMT on 31 March.
That 90 mph increase in winds in 24 hours is not far below the record intensification rate of Hurricane Wilma in 2005, which was 110 mph in 24 hours. Official bulletins from La Réunion indicate the central pressure dropped 61 mb in 24 hrs, from 986mb at 1800 UTC Saturday to 925mb at 1800 UTC Sunday. They warn in their 18 UTC Sunday advisory:
HELLEN IS LIKELY TO BE ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONES EVER SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN CHANNEL SINCE THE SATELLITE ERA (1967). THE LIKELIHOOD IS INCREASING FOR AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN CAPE SAINT-ANDRE AND MAHAJONGA. THE RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE STORM SURGE NWP HAS BEEN RUN AND SHOWS PHENOMENAL SEA ELEVATIONS IN THE AREA EXPOSED TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS (EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK).
THE STORM SURGE COULD REACH 2 - 4 METERS (7 - 13 FEET) IN THE ESTUARY OF THE BETSIBOKA RIVER (MAHAJONGA), AND MORE THAN 7 METERS (23 FEET) IN THE BAY OF BALY (SOALALA), AND 1 - 4 METERS ON THE COASTLINE EAST OF CAPE SAINT-ANDRE. ALL PREPARATIONS FOR A "WORST CASE" SCENARIO SHOULD BE UNDERWAY.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Washington mudslide missing person numbers revised down 'substantially' - The number of people missing from last week's Washington state mudslide has been revised down substantially from 90 to 30. The official death toll has risen to 18, with several bodies yet to be formally identified. The authorities say the number of those killed is believed to be at least 27 but that the official tally does not include those who have yet to be formally identified.
It has been over a week since the town of Oso, north of Seattle, was struck by a 177ft (54m) wall of mud and debris. The crews were not always recovering complete remains, making it difficult to identify those killed. More than 200 rescue workers are involved in the rescue operation, which has been hampered by days of heavy rain. The conditions at the one sq-mile site have continued to deteriorate, with the rain turning the already dangerous debris field into "quicksand".
No survivors have been found since the day of the mudslide. The mudslide destroyed about 30 houses, temporarily damming a river and leaving nearly a square mile field of muck and debris in its wake. The debris field is pocked with deep pits of water and strewn with sharp and dangerous wreckage, including fallen trees, propane and septic tanks, destroyed vehicles and smashed timber. (photos at link)
Washington state allowed logging on plateau above the slope - In recent decades the state allowed logging — with restrictions — on the plateau above the Snohomish County hillside that collapsed in last weekend’s deadly mudslide. The plateau above the soggy hillside that gave way Saturday has been logged for almost a century, with hundreds of acres of softwoods cut and hauled away, according to state records.
But in recent decades, as the slope has become more unstable, scientists have increasingly challenged the timber harvests, with some even warning of possible calamity. The state has continued to allow logging on the plateau, although it has imposed restrictions at least twice since the 1980s. The remnant of one clear-cut operation is visible in aerial photographs of Saturday’s monstrous mudslide. A triangle - 7½ acres, the shape of a pie slice - can be seen atop the destruction, its tip just cutting into where the hill collapsed.
Multiple factors can contribute to a slide. With the hill that caved in over the weekend, geologists have pointed to the Stillaguamish River’s erosion of the hill’s base, or toe. But logging can also play a role in instigating or intensifying a slide, by increasing the amount of water seeping into an unstable zone, according to an analysis of the watershed submitted to the state Department of Natural Resources.
In May 1988, when a private landowner, received approval to begin logging above the slope, scientists raised alarms about the removal of trees that intercept or absorb so much water. A geologist for the Tulalip Tribes warned regulators that harvesting holds “the potential for a massive and catastrophic failure of the entire hillslope.” Others echoed his concerns.
“Timber harvesting could possibly cause what is likely an inevitable event to occur sooner.” And an environmental biologist for the Stillaguamish Tribe cited “the potential for massive failure,” similar to a slide that occurred in 1967. The agency that issued the permit — the DNR — responded to the concerns by assembling a team of geologists and hydrologists to study the harvest’s potential impact on landslides.
Harvesting can increase soil water “on the order of 20 to 35 percent”, with that impact lasting 16 to 27 years, until new trees matured. Past slides on the hill occurred within five to 10 years of harvests. In August 1988, the DNR issued a stop-work order, putting Summit Timber’s logging operation on temporary hold. “1988 was maybe the first time that we were getting serious as to what you should or should not do in terms of logging and road construction around those things.”
A week after the stop-work order, a Summit representative wrote DNR, saying $750,000 to $1 million worth of timber was at stake. He listed alternative steps that could be taken to lessen the risks of a slide — for example, having the state relocate the channel of the Stillaguamish River that was cutting into the hill’s base. “I can only conclude that the real issue here is not slides and water quality, but timber cutting.”
Although records indicate that at least 300 acres were harvested on the plateau in the late 1980s, the state moved to prevent Summit Timber from clear-cutting 48 acres considered most likely to discharge water down the slope. Mapping out the areas most likely to feed water into unstable terrain is “fraught with uncertainty,” wrote one geologist who studied this landslide zone in the 1990s. The company eventually backed away from its request to log the 48 acres, given the hill’s history. “It was a little bit risky. We decided not to do it.”
The 1988 application was contentious because the state rarely objected to proposed harvests. Getting the DNR to limit the cut’s scope was no small task. “That was considered kind of a big victory.” Concerns about landslides surfaced again in 2004, when a property owner applied for a permit to clear a 15-acre tract near the plateau’s edge.
The state rejected the application, saying some of the proposed logging fell within a sensitive area that could feed water into the slope. Working in that zone would require years of intensive monitoring of precipitation and groundwater. They revised its application, halving the proposed harvest to avoid the sensitive zone. The final plan — a clear-cut shaped like a right triangle — had an eastern border that abutted the area. The state approved the application while attaching conditions, including: “All yarding and log-hauling activities will cease at the onset of heavy or steady rain and will not resume until the rain has subsided for at least 24 hours.” Harvesting in that area was finished by August 2005.
In January 2006, a large slide hit, with so much mud crashing into the Stillaguamish that the river was diverted. Where the hill fell away was maybe 600 feet southwest of the clear-cut area. Saturday’s slide took more of the hill, reaching right up to that triangle. the company has done selective logging on the plateau in more recent years. Following the approval of a 2009 permit that also included an area abutting the sensitive zone, the company reported to the state that it removed 20 percent of the area’s trees. It returned in 2011 and got approval to take 15 percent more.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

One of the Coldest Winters in 20 Years Shatters Snow Records - Toledo, Ohio, experienced their SNOWIEST WINTER EVER, with a record breaking snowfall of 84.8 inches.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

Australia - Extreme weather brings potato shortage and sends prices soaring. A summer heatwave and extreme wind disrupted harvests and planting in the production of potatoes.

Idaho - Drought no longer a big concern this year, but flooding might be.

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS

Liberia confirms Ebola cases as deadly virus spreads - The World Health Organisation said Liberia has confirmed two cases of the deadly Ebola virus that is suspected to have killed at least 70 people in Guinea.

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Sunday, March 30, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**The positive thinker sees the invisible,
feels the intangible, and achieves the impossible.**
Unknown


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.1 CENTRAL ALASKA

Yesterday, 3/29/14 -
5.0 HUBEI, CHINA
5.8 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.1 GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.3 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND

3/28/14 -
5.2 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.4 FIJI REGION
5.6 NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA

3/27/14 -
5.6 LA RIOJA, ARGENTINA
5.4 NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
6.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

California - Residents of southern California were rattled by a 4.1 magnitude earthquake Saturday afternoon, the largest of more than 100 aftershocks following Friday's 5.1 rumbler that caused light scattered damage around the Los Angeles area.
Saturday's quake rippled through an area near Rowland Heights, California, about 2:32 p.m. The temblor was considered relatively shallow with a depth of 5.6 miles. Seismologists said there was about a 5 percent chance that Friday's quake, which struck at 9:09 p.m., was a foreshock to a bigger temblor. No injuries were immediately reported from either Saturday's quake or the more significant earthquake that struck Friday evening outside La Habra, which is about 20 miles east of downtown Los Angeles.
Friday's temblor displaced at least 50 people in Fullerton, about 5 miles from the epicenter, because of minor damage to homes and apartment dwellings. Water bubbled up through the pavement along Gilbert Street just south of Rosecrans in Fullerton. As well, a water main break in the city forced the closure of some streets due to flooding. The quake also shook items off tables, rattled chandeliers and resulted in scattered damage to cars and property, including setting off a rockslide in the Orange County city of Brea that flipped a car on its roof.
Friday's quake was felt as far away as Palm Springs in the east, San Diego in the south and Ventura County to the north. While not large, the event "seems unusual, of course, because a lot of people felt it. These quakes occur in populated areas and people try to put two and two together and predict that something more is coming, but that's simply not the case."
The quake shut down Metrolink trains to allow for inspection of tracks and cars. In Anaheim, Disneyland briefly turned off park rides as a precaution and asked guests to remain seated. There have been various reports of water main and gas main leaks possibly caused by the quake, in La Habra, Fullerton and La Mirada.
The quake on Friday night was the biggest in the Los Angeles area for six years, since a 5.5-magnitude earthquake struck nearby. Preliminary data suggest Friday night's quake ocurred on the Puente Hills thrust fault which caused deadly 1987 Whittier quake.

Chileans Worry Over String of 300 Quakes - More than 300 earthquakes have shaken Chile's far-northern coast the past week, keeping people on edge as scientists say there is no way to tell if the UNUSUAL STRING OF TREMORS is a harbinger of an impending disaster.
The unnerving activity began with a strong magnitude-6.7 quake on March 16 that caused more than 100,000 people to briefly evacuate low-lying areas, although no tsunami materialized and there was little physical damage from the shaking. But the land has not settled down. More than a dozen perceptible quakes were felt in the city of Iquique just on Monday.
"The situation is out of the ordinary. There's a mix of a string of tremors and their aftershocks that make things more complex to evaluate. We can't rule out a larger quake." Chile is one of the world's most earthquake-prone countries. A magnitude 8.8 quake and ensuing tsunami in central Chile in 2010 killed more than 500 people, destroyed 220,000 homes, and washed away docks, riverfronts and seaside resorts.
The strongest earthquake ever recorded on Earth also happened in Chile - a magnitude-9.5 tremor in 1960 that killed more than 5,000 people. The last recorded big quake to hit the northern area around Iquique was a devastating magnitude 8.3 in 1877. It unleashed a 24-meter-high (nearly 80-foot-high) tsunami, causing major damage along the Chile-Peru coast and fatalities as far away as Hawaii and Japan.
"The latest string of quakes is noteworthy because the last one happened in this seismic zone more than 130 years ago. It's a zone where quakes should happen more often, and they haven't in a very long time." A major quake in the country's north would be a potential threat to the economy of Chile, which is the world's top copper producing nation. Most of the Chilean mining industry is in the northern regions.
Chile's worrisome seismic activity can be traced to just off the country's 4,000-kilometer (2,500-mile) Pacific coast, where the Nazca tectonic plate plunges beneath the South American plate, pushing the towering Andes cordillera to ever-higher altitudes. The 2010 quake released so much energy it shortened the Earth's day slightly by changing the planet's rotation.

VOLCANOES -
Alaska - Shishaldin Volcano On Higher Alert. After a week of unrest, Shishaldin Volcano in the Aleutians is being put on a higher alert level. The Alaska Volcano Observatory reported Friday that there have been explosions inside the volcano and elevated surface temperatures since March 18. That appears to mean there’s been a small eruption.
“There is probably fresh magma or lava down inside the crater." There hasn’t been any lava seen on the rim of the crater or the sides of the volcano. Shishaldin also isn’t emitting any ash. But this could be a precursor to a bigger event.
“Little things happen like this happen at Shishaldin probably even more often than we’re able to detect. They’re always, though – whenever you see some activity like this, there is a concern that it could, you know, escalate into something larger.” Shishaldin is now on a “watch” alert level, which carries an orange color code. It had previously been on a yellow – or “advisory” level – since January.
Only one of the six seismic monitoring stations on Shishaldin is active right now. The others are offline, and there’s not enough funding available to repair them. Shishaldin is on Unimak Island, northeast of Unalaska. Of all the conical glacial volcanoes in the world, it’s the the most symmetrical. It’s also the Aleutian Islands’ highest peak, and one of the most active in the chain. Its last big eruption was in 1999, when it sent an ash plume 45,000 feet above sea level. There hasn’t been any unusual activity there since 2009.

Reventador volcano (Ecuador) - elevated activity, lava flows and ash emissions. The volcano's activity has remained high since the beginning of the current eruptive phase since March 25.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the South Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone Hellen is located approximately 345 nm north-northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar.

Hellen - A low pressure area centered over the Mozambique Channel organized into Tropical Cyclone 21S (Hellen) on Friday afternoon.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

In US, Mudslides Common, But Usually Few Deaths - Common causes of mudslides are unstable soil and heavy rain, especially following droughts, earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. Mudslides occur when the soil becomes saturated.

The Oso, Washingon, landslide has been compared to the 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens - both in terms of the devastation and the loss of life.

8 Tornadoes Reportedly Hit Missouri, Southern Iowa late on Thursday.

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Friday, March 28, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Every thought is a seed. If you plant crab apples,
don't count on harvesting Golden Delicious.**
Bill Meyer


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.4 LA RIOJA, ARGENTINA

Yesterday, 3/27/14 -
5.6 LA RIOJA, ARGENTINA
5.4 NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
6.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

Quake didn't trigger Oso, Washington, deadly mudslide on March 22. Snohomish County officials raised questions on Tuesday whether a 1.1 magnitude quake that hit on March 10 approximately 100 yards right behind the slide may have contributed to the hillside breaking free. The U.S. Geological Survey confirmed that the tiny quake which occurred 12 days before Saturday's Oso mudslide could not have triggered the disaster. Seismograph readings show no indication of any other earthquake in association with the landslide.

Great Alaska Earthquake remembered - The 9.2 tremor shook the state and triggered tsunamis 50 years ago at 5:36 p.m., March 27, 1964. It was North America's largest earthquake. The quake killed 15 people and created a tsunami that killed 124 more people from Alaska to California.

Alaska experiences more than one thousand earthquakes every month - Four in five quakes that hit the U.S. occur in Alaska.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

No current tropical storms.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

US mudslide toll expected to leap - Fatalities from last week's Washington state mudslide will rise "substantially" in the next two days, authorities say, with 90 people still missing.
14 Pictures

Bangladesh - Storm hits 2 Sherpur upazilas. A norwester, accompanied by hailstorm, lashed 10 bordering villages in Nalitabari and Jhinaigati upazilas Tuesday night, damaging over 200 katcha houses and Boro seedlings and vegetables on a vast tract of land during its half an hour fury. The storm-hit villages are Sondhakura, Garokona, Gumra, Fhakhrabad, Haldi in Jhinaigati upazila, Samshchura, Hatipagar, Meshkura, Burunga and Kalapani in Nalitabari upazila. Locals said the tropical storm swept the villages around 11 pm.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

The strongest Nor'easter of 2014 blasted Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, Canada on Wednesday with wind gusts over 100 mph and up to a half meter (19.5") of snow, bringing travel to a standstill and causing power outages that affected about 17,000 customers in Nova Scotia.
The mighty storm intensified rapidly on Wednesday afternoon, "bombing" to a central pressure by 2pm EDT of 955 mb - similar to the central pressure of a Category 3 hurricane. The storm's pressure fall of 45 mb in 24 hours is AMONG THE GREATEST ON RECORD for a Nor'easter (for comparison, the 1978 Cleveland Superbomb had a pressure drop of 43 millibars in 24 hours, also to 955 mb.)
The La Have Bank buoy south of Halifax, Nova Scotia measured a pressure of 957 mb as the center of the storm passed nearby, along with significant wave heights of 29 feet. A wind gust of 129 mph was measured on Wednesday at the Bay of Fundy, and sustained winds of 89 mph with a gust to 115 mph was recorded between 6:30 - 7:30 pm EDT in Wreckhouse, Newfoundland, BEATING THE PREVIOUS STRONGEST GUST of 112 mph set in 2007 (Wreckhouse is named for the terrain-enhanced winds that often cause destruction.)
Grand Étangon the Gulf of St Lawrence side of Cape Breton in Nova Scotia recorded top sustained winds of 70 mph, gusting to 102 mph. This location is susceptible to strong "Les Suêtes" ["southeast"] winds in this type of setup. These southeasterly winds travel up over Cape Breton and a funneling effect intensifies them as they blow downslope toward the Gulf of St Lawrence. As a result, these gusts are not truly representative of the storm, but rather the storm plus local terrain effects. Environment Canada has a special "Les Suêtes Wind Warning", and issued it for Wednesday's storm.

Powerful nor'easter stays mostly out to sea off U.S. east coast - The storm that was moving into the Canadian Maritimes had winds as powerful as a hurricane. Had this storm been 150 to 200 miles closer to the coast, it would have created major or even catastrophic damage and brought the region to a standstill for days.
Although the center of the storm remained hundreds of miles off the coast, blizzard conditions were met at several stations on Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. It’s certainly a testament to the power of this system that those sorts of observations occurred with a storm so far out to sea. Wind gusts reached hurricane strength across Nantucket and just off the coast of Maine a gust reached 119 miles per hour. Snowfall amounts over Cape Cod and the Islands have been tough to measure, but Nantucket has seen close to 10 inches of new snow. In late March this is a sizeable storm for the island where snow often turns to rain even in January.
It’s only a matter of time before a monster storm like this does hit the New England coastline but it’s likely to be a hurricane. If you go by averages, we should have had at least one hurricane hit the coast during the past decade. We've now gone longer than any recorded period without an official hurricane making landfall along the New England coastline. (maps at link)

Canada - Possible frost quake buckled shoreline at Kinbrook. A loud bang and subsequent mini-quake that rocked cabins at the north end of Kinbrook Island about five weeks ago is thought to be the result of a frost quake - the release of pressure built up by freezing water underground. The bang, or boom as some described it, was heard as far away as Lake Newell Resort, some six miles away.
“There was a loud bang, our cabin shook and the dishes rattled. We thought it was the ice on the lake cracking but we couldn’t see anything like that. Once the snow melted some a week or so ago, we noted the ground all along the shore had heaved and buckled in several places.” Frost quakes, also known as cryoseisms, occur after rain and extreme cold temperatures. Land along the shore of Kinbrook Island has clearly been displaced.
“We heard the noise on the other side of the lake as well." Whether the movement was from ice piles or a quake, it points to the power of nature. “That is what is humbling about the power of Mother Nature. These are massive shifts.” Some ice piles are as high as 20 feet.
There wasn’t much that could be done by way of prevention or protection when it comes to Mother Nature’s temper during thaw season. “I’m not sure there really is much to be done. My advice is to move things that could be in the way of piles and ice shifts.” Residents around Toronto and Calgary have also reported loud bangs thought to be frost quakes this year. Ice pressure building up in the ground often results in ground breaking, buckling, sometimes strong enough to shake the ground.
Residents around the GTA reported hearing a loud ‘bang’ in the middle of the night, Fri., Jan. 3, 2014. Earthquake Canada says it was a frost quake. Ice can be very rigid at cold temperatures, and as it expands it finds room for itself and build up tremendous pressure.
Earlier this month, reports of a loud cracking noise in northwest Calgary had many claiming frost quake. Environment Canada said the theory of a frost quake was pretty viable. “It’s plausible that a loud cracking noise and shaking sensation detected by residents was a so-called frost quake.”
“When the ground temperature decreases further during a prolonged cold snap, the ice and frozen ground become brittle. Tensional stresses develop due to contraction of ice under very cold conditions. Much like an earthquake, if the stresses are released suddenly then a cryoseism is produced. Unlike earthquakes, cryoseisms happen at the surface and so can produce a more distinct audible expression.”
Frost quakes are more likely to occur when the ground is very wet (saturated) prior to freeze up, and in areas where snow cover is minimal. Infrastructure could be at risk and that frost quakes can pose a risk to shallow buried infrastructure in the immediate vicinity.

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Thursday, March 27, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Worry often gives a small thing a big shadow.**
Swedish proverb


Just the quakes today.

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.4 NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
6.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS [East of Australia]

Yesterday, 3/26/14 -
5.4 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.6 SOUTHEAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
5.7 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
6.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

3/25/14 -
5.1 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.1 SOUTHERN PERU
5.2 NEAR COAST OF ECUADOR
5.2 TONGA
5.3 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Knowledge is the antidote to fear.**
Ralph Waldo Emerson


No update on Wednesday this week.

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.3 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE

Yesterday, 3/24/14 -
5.0 OFFSHORE ATACAMA, CHILE
5.0 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.7 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.4 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.1 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.7 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone Gillian is located approximately 618 nm west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia.
-----
SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Washington - Officials now say as many as 176 people may remain unaccounted for after the 177ft (54m) wall of mud hit near the town of Oso, north of Seattle. Search crews have worked day and night, using helicopters and laser imaging. But officials admit they have little hope of finding survivors in the muck.
The slide "basically cut a mountain in two" and deposited it on the town below. Nothing in the path of the slide was still standing. "It's that absolute devastation that causes us all real pain." The official list of the missing stood at 176, but they did not think the final death toll would be so high, because some of those listed as unaccounted for would be found to be alive, and other names would prove to be duplicates.
The landslide left behind a cliff known as a head scarp 183m high. "This is one of the biggest landslides I've seen." Authorities have continued their search-and-rescue operations amid a tangled, water-logged field of muck and debris, using rescue dogs, aerial photography and laser imaging to aide the search.
Officials said the conditions were treacherous, and the threat of further landslides on Monday forced the authorities to pull search-and-rescue workers back from the scene briefly until scientists determined there was no further risk. "Right now it's stable, it's in good shape, and the good news is the rescue can continue."
More than 30 homes were destroyed and more than half the town of Oso is missing - a recent census put its population at 180. The landslide cut off the city of Darrington and clogged the north fork of the Stillaguamish River. The river had begun to flow over the debris, relieving the water pressure in the part of the river blocked behind the landslide and lessening the chances of a catastrophic flood if the water should break through all at once.
The authorities say the landslide was caused by recent heavy rain, although the area's terrain is made up of unstable glacial sediment and has been subject to landslides since the last ice age. Landslides occurred in the area in 2006 and 1969. (photos & map at link)

Meteorological Bomb Brewing for Canada on Wednesday - The most powerful Nor'easter of the year will gather strength over the waters offshore of Virginia on Tuesday, then head northeast and bring damaging winds, heavy rain and snow, and a substantial storm surge to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland Canada on Wednesday.
The storm will brush Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, bringing at least six inches of snow and wind gusts of up to 60 mph. A Blizzard Watch and Coastal Flood Watch are posted for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island, where a NOAA storm surge model run using the winds from the 00Z run of the GFS model predicted almost a 2 foot surge could occur on Wednesday morning. A surge of this magnitude is capable of causing minor to moderate flooding.
As the storm pulls away from the Mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday evening, it will undergo EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING, meeting the criteria of a "meteorological bomb" - a storm that deepens by at least 24 mb in 24 hours. In fact, the Monday morning 00Z run of the European model shows the pressure falling by more than double that pace - deepening by an extraordinary 40 mb in just eighteen hours, ending at 2 pm EDT Wednesday.
When the Nor'easter hits Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Wednesday evening, the central pressure of the storm is expected to be between 956 - 960 mb, similar to the central pressure of a strong Category 2 hurricane. However, Nor'easters do not form eyewalls with intense winds concentrated over a small area, and this Nor'easter's strong winds will be spread out over a large area.
I doubt we'll see sustained hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or greater at any land stations, but sustained winds of 60 - 70 mph are likely in some locations, which will be capable of causing widespread power outages and considerable tree damage. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet may also cause coastal damage and moderate flooding, if the surge arrives at high tide. (map at link)

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS

Tests on the suspected cases of deadly Ebola virus in Guinea's capital Conakry are negative, health officials say. On Sunday, United Nations officials said that the virus had spread to the capital, a port city of up to two million, from remote forests in the south, where some 61 people have died.
The government has sent out text messages, urging people to stay calm and wash their hands with soap. eighbouring countries such as Liberia, Senegal and Sierra Leone are said to be on high alert in case the disease spreads. Five people are already reported to have died in Liberia after crossing from southern Guinea for treatment. However, it is not clear whether they had Ebola.
Guinea is also currently grappling with epidemics of measles, cholera and meningitis. After two people died from a haemorrhagic fever in Conakry, samples were sent to the Pasteur Institute in neighbouring Senegal for testing. These had shown that the victims had not been infected with Ebola. It is not known what killed them.
Recent outbreaks of Ebola have occurred thousands of miles away, in Uganda and Democratic Republic of Congo. Outbreaks of Ebola occur primarily in remote villages in Central and West Africa, near tropical rainforests.

Canadian man in hospital with Ebola-like virus - The Ebola virus is just one of the possible diagnoses. The man is in hospital in Canada with symptoms of a haemorrhagic fever resembling the Ebola virus.
The man had recently returned from Liberia in the west African region, currently suffering a deadly outbreak of an unidentified haemorrhagic fever. He is in isolation in critical condition in Saskatoon, the largest city in Saskatchewan province. A provincial medical official said there was no risk to the public.
The province's deputy chief medical officer declined to say how long the man had been in Africa but said he only fell ill after returning to Canada. She said that was in line with the profile of common deadly haemorrhagic fever viruses Lassa fever and Ebola, which have an incubation period of up to 21 days. She said the people most at risk were healthcare workers who do not protect themselves from contact with the patient's bodily secretions.
"There is no risk to the general public. We recognise that there is going to be a fair amount of concern and that is why we wanted to go public with this as soon as possible." A virus resembling Ebola has struck in Guinea, with cases also reported in Liberia. As many as 61 people have died of the disease in the remote forests of southern Guinea. But health officials in the Guinean capital, Conakry, have said the virus is not Ebola.
In Saskatchewan, the man's diagnosis had not yet been confirmed.

*****
Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook - with breaking news during the day.

Monday, March 24, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**A new type of thinking is essential if mankind is
to survive and move to higher levels.**
Albert Einstein


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday, 3/23/14 -
5.0 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
6.3 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.9 FIJI REGION

Chile - Earthquake near Iquique causes power outage and rock slides. A strong earthquake measuring 6.1 on the Richter scale was reported near Iquique at 3:20 pm Sunday afternoon. Reports placed the quake 97 km (60 miles) WNW of Iquique at a depth of 6 km.
Twitter users in the area ‘tweeted’ that southern parts of the city were without power. 22,500 customers were without service but service was fully restored within 32 minutes. The quake caused no disruption to basic services or infrastructure and there were no reports of injuries.
Since March 16 there has been a lot of seismic activity in the area with more than 300 seismic events being recorded, 28 of those have been felt by residents, with seven having been classed as medium intensity. Since this earthquake there have been four additional tremors felt throughout the region. According to one Twitter user the event caused rock slides near Iquique.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone Gillian is located approximately 730 nm west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia.

-----
Indonesia - Cyclone may fan fires. The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency predicts that Riau will suffer from drier weather conditions in the next three days triggered by tropical cyclone Gillian currently forming above the Indian Ocean and in the southwestern part of Java. Gillian has drawn moisture away from the Riau area.
Low-to-high-intensity rainfalls in Riau would likely return on March 28. “Dry weather in Riau has allowed for fire-prone hotspots, which previously had been reportedly in an overall decline, to burst into and forest fires again. Moreover, there are still a number of new burners operating in the areas."
Although thousands of officials had been dispatched to protect the areas from land and forest burning, there were still many people carrying out illegal logging and slash-and-burn land clearing in areas across the province. On Sunday, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellites recorded 12 hotspots in Riau. Meanwhile, Modis satellites detected 66 hotspots in Riau, mostly in Bengkalis. Lately, air quality in Riau has improved.

Philippines - LPA may intensify into cyclone anew. The low pressure area (LPA), previously called tropical depression “Caloy,” could either intensify again once it passes over the open waters of the Sulu Sea or simply dissipate.
Forecasters said that based on current models, the LPA would linger within the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) until Tuesday or Wednesday. While inside the PAR, it could either weaken further and dissipate or it could develop again into a tropical cyclone upon passing over open waters, where weather disturbances would usually gain strength. As of 4 p.m. Sunday, the LPA was estimated at 50 kilometers east of Dumaguete City and would bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over the Visayas.
The forecaster further advised fishing vessels and small sea crafts from venturing into the sea due to big waves that could reach 4.5 meters caused by strong to gale force winds associated with the surge of the northeasterly surface windflow expected to affect the seaboards of Northern Luzon, the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon, the southern seaboard of Southern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of the Visayas. Sea conditions in the areas are expected to be rough to very rough.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Washington - Rising death toll from landslide. Rescuers searching the area of Saturday's massive mudslide in the US state of Washington find eight bodies, with 18 people still missing. Rescuers pulled five bodies from the debris on Sunday, adding to three found on Saturday. The landslide was caused by recent heavy rain.
Officials say there are still a number of people registered as missing, but search teams said they had not seen or heard any signs of survivors. The 54m (177ft) deep landslide destroyed 30 houses near the town of Oso, about 90km north of Seattle. Rescue teams have only just been able to properly search the site. It was deemed too dangerous to access the worst-affected areas on Saturday.
An eyewitness tsaid that he was driving on the road and had to quickly brake to avoid the mudslide. "I just saw the darkness coming across the road. Everything was gone in three seconds." "All of a sudden there was a wall of mud. Then it hit and we were rolling. The house was in sticks. We were buried under things, and we dug ourselves out."
The landslide cut off the city of Darrington and clogged the North Fork of the Stillaguamish River, prompting fears of severe flooding downstream if the build-up of water behind the debris breaks through suddenly. More rain is expected in parts of Washington on Sunday, and some people have been advised to move to higher ground. The area has had problems in the past with unstable land. (photos at link)
The voices heard late Saturday night from the rubble of the massive mudslide have gone silent. Thwarted for hours by ooze treacherous as quicksand, rescuers were able to resume their search for victims Sunday. But instead of survivors, they found more bodies.
What remains on the banks of the Stillaguamish River about an hour north of Seattle is a square mile of damp destruction and a small town's worth of sadness and fear. Elected officials grappled to describe the devastation, which was as bad, one said, as "Mt. St. Helens 34 years ago when it erupted."
At least eight people were confirmed dead, officials said late Sunday. Seven victims remained hospitalized, including a 6-month-old in critical condition. Doctors described most of the wounds as "crushing injuries. Basically the people were swept away, pinned up against things, covered."
About 18 people are missing, and officials characterized that tally as "fluid" and "growing." "I get a sense we're going to have some hard news here." For about 24 hours after the mudslide swept across State Route 530 in rural northwest Washington, water dammed up behind the debris field made approaching the wreckage largely too perilous, officials said.
A crew of geologists flew over the disaster site Sunday morning and deemed the risk to have diminished, so rescue workers resumed their search of the region, where an estimated 30 homes were destroyed. "I'm disappointed to tell you, after searching a very large area of that debris field on foot, we didn't find anybody alive. There was no sign of life. The person that we found out there that was deceased is still out there and mostly buried in the mud. It's going to take quite a bit of time to get that person out of there."
"Mother Nature holds the cards here." The destruction is "just unrelenting and awesome — there really is no stick standing in the path of the slide." The mudslide, which has blocked rural State Route 530 as well as the Stillaguamish River, came after an UNUSUALLY HEAVY MONTH OF RAIN. More precipitation is expected in the week ahead, with Snohomish County on flash-flood watch through Monday afternoon.
An evacuation order for residents downstream was lifted Sunday morning, but officials warned that it could be reinstated: Water was building up behind a dam created by the mudslide and could give way again. By late Sunday, however, officials said the risk was easing, with the river carving a path through the slurry.

CLIMATE CHANGE -

Tibet records rising temperatures and extreme weather - Global warming has reached the snow-capped Himalayas in south China's Tibet, with rising temperatures and more extreme weather, according to an official climate report.
The report on climate change and environmental monitoring in Tibet was published by Tibet Climate Center this week. The report is based on analysis of climate data collected between 1961 and 2013, showing that the average emperature in Tibet has been rising by 0.31 degrees Celsius every decade.
Tibet is the highest region in the mid-latitude regions, and seen as a barometer of global warming. Rsing temperatures have been accompanied by increased precipitation, up by 6.6 millimeters every 10 years for the past five decades. There is also a trend of more severe extreme weather. Both the record low temperature of -36.7 degrees Celsius and the record high temperature of 32.3 degrees Celsius were logged in Tibet last year.
With the pace of global warming, the average temperature in Tibet is expected to rise by 1.96 degrees Celsius from 2011 to 2100, which would be mainly through a rise of winter temperatures. Warmer temperatures and increased precipitation are likely to add greenery to the plateau region.

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS

Deadly Ebola virus reaches Guinea capital - An outbreak of the Ebola virus - which has already killed 59 people in Guinea - has reached the capital Conakry, the UN's children agency has warned. Unicef said the haemorrhagic fever had spread quickly from southern Guinea, hundreds of kilometres away.
Scores of cases have been recorded since the outbreak began last month. There is no known cure or vaccine. It is spread by close personal contact with people who are infected and kills between 25% and 90% of victims. Symptoms include internal and external bleeding and vomiting.
"At least 59 out of 80 who contracted Ebola across the West African country have died so far. Over the past few days, the deadly haemorrhagic fever has quickly spread from the communities of Macenta, Gueckedou, and Kissidougou to the capital Conakry." Conakry is a sprawling port city, where up to two million people currently live.
Outbreaks of Ebola occur primarily in remote villages in Central and West Africa, near tropical rainforests. Analysts suggest it has NEVER BEEN RECORDED IN GUINEA BEFORE. Recent years have seen outbreaks in Uganda and Democratic Republic of Congo.
"We are overwhelmed in the field, we are fighting against this epidemic with all the means we have at our disposal with the help of our partners but it is difficult." Medical aid charity Medecins sans Frontieres said on Saturday it would strengthen its team in Guinea and fly some 33 tonnes of drugs and isolation equipment in from Belgium and France. Doctors have to identify all patients with the disease and monitor anyone they had been in contact with during their illness.
The latest outbreak could be brought under control if people act quickly. "Based on our history with these sorts of outbreaks it will happen. Ideally, sooner rather than later. The more quickly we can contain this the fewer cases we'll have, then the smaller the scale of the epidemic. That's the idea of going in as strong as we can early on."

*****
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Sunday, March 23, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**The impossible can always be broken down into possibilities.**
Author Unknown


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.7 FIJI REGION

Yesterday, 3/22/14 -
5.3 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.1 OFFSHORE NAYARIT, MEXICO
5.4 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 OFF COAST OF TARAPACA, CHILE
5.5 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.2 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
6.2 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.2 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
5.3 GULF OF CALIFORNIA

3/21/14 -
5.1 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.0 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.3 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.4 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
6.3 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

VOLCANOES -
Copahue volcano (Chile) - alert level raised to orange after an increase in seismic activity.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the Western Pacific -
- Tropical depression Four [Caloy] is located approximately 225 nm northeast of Zamboanga, Philippines. The final advisory has been issued on this system.

* In the Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone Gillian is located approximately 420 nm east of Cocos Island, Australia.
-----
'Caloy' makes landfall, leaves 1781 passengers stranded - Tropical Depression Caloy made landfall over Mindanao Saturday morning. "Caloy" weakened into a low-pressure area after making landfall over Surigao del Sur Saturday.

Missing Malaysia Airlines jet search threatened by Cyclone Gillian - A cyclone warning has been issued near to where an international search effort is underway to locate possible debris from the missing Malaysia airplane. "A cyclone warning has been declared for Tropical Cyclone Gillian, which is located in the southern corridor." Very strong winds and rough seas were occurring.
Christmas Island awaits cyclone - Residents of Christmas Island are bracing for Tropical Cyclone Gillian, which is packing winds in excess of 125 km/h. The Bureau of Meteorology reported the cyclone was 85km north-northeast of the island about 2am (WST) on Saturday and moving west at 20 km/h.
The bureau warns the storm's high winds and heavy rainfall may persist through Sunday. The Christmas Island Emergency Management Committee advises the island is now on Red Alert. Residents are advised to take shelter immediately; stay inside, in the strongest part of their house or the Evacuation Centre; protect themselves with mattresses, blankets, etc; keep away from doors and windows and keep them closed; park vehicles in the most sheltered area available with handbrake applied; stay indoors until an "ALL CLEAR" message is given.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Huge Washington Landslide Kills Three and Dams a River - Three people were killed and eight injured in a mile-long landslide near Seattle that demolished at least six houses Saturday morning, blocked roads and dammed a river, bringing fears of a major flood.
“First responders heard someone inside screaming for help” as the landslide swept a house onto a road in the community of Oso in Snohomish County at approximately 11 a.m. (2 p.m. ET) Saturday. Among the injured is a 6-month-old in critical condition,. The hospital was also treating a 37-year-old male and an 81-year-old man both in critical condition and a 58-year-old man and a 25-year-old woman in serious condition. Another man brought to Harborview died of his injuries.
The search for survivors continued into the night. Late Saturday, people were still yelling for help. Earlier, the search involved the Snohomish County Sheriff’s Office, Washington State Patrol, Washington Department of Transportation, and Army Corps of Engineers. The Department of Emergency Management, U.S. Navy and local fire departments were also involved in the search.
Portions of State Route 530 were shut down, and the monster mudslide “diverted part of a local river, which started a flood in the area. "Very high potential for fast upstream, downstream flooding. Prep now in case you have to leave quickly," the Snohomish County Government warned in a tweet four hours after the initial slide. Officials said reverse 911 calls were sent warning residents of the danger of flooding from the North Fork Stillaguamish River upstream from the slide, as well as the possibility of flooding 12 miles downstream to Arlington should there be a catastrophic breach by the river.
Hundreds of people could be at risk in the flood plain. "Anyone along the flood plain of the Stillaguamish between Oso and Stanwood should leave." The commander of the Snohomish County Search & Rescue team said that the slide is the largest he's seen in the area in 30 years. The cause of the slide appears to be that the ground was oversaturated by heavy rainfall. Snohomish County RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS have BROKEN RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. (photo at link)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Ireland - One year on from worst blizzard in 50 years. A year ago severe snow storms saw Northern Ireland suffer some of its most extreme weather in 50 years. The storms decimated farms, trapped people indoors for day and buried everything from cars to livestock.
The extreme weather saw snow drifts up to 12ft high. "The snow was a foot higher than the wire fence. It came up to the tops of the trees. We had a lot of sheep buried behind the wire." One farm lost 150 ewes, five rams and six young sheep in the conditions, a significant financial and physical loss.
The blizzard conditions began on Friday, 22 March and continued throughout the weekend. Worst-hit were rural areas near Dromore, Ballyclare, Larne and Downpatrick. By Saturday morning, 35,000 people across Northern Ireland were without power. Cars were buried and people trapped in their homes due to the snow. Many people in remote rural locations were trapped in their homes, as roads were blocked by snow drifts up to 12ft high.
These conditions would remain for days, forcing school closures and causing chaos for travellers. The snow even saw whole cars swallowed by huge banks of snow, as video shows. However, farmers bore the brunt of the conditions. A month after the snow had cleared, the Department of Agriculture reported that 44,000 animal carcasses had been recovered.
Even those livestock that survived were traumatised by the event. "Once we got roads open we were able to get silage and meal to them by the Monday and Tuesday. But it was fully another week before they came onto feed properly. Complete starvation and the hard conditions had given them a colossal shake. It was a very hard knock. We were just absolutely helpless for four days."
Last year's event was even worse than the infamous snow storms of 1963. This year has not seen a repeat of the extreme conditions. "It's unusual to get it two years in a row. Last year was so exceptional it was like a 1 in 50-year event. I'm not expecting to see it again in my lifetime. But you never know."

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Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook - with breaking news during the day.

Friday, March 21, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**"Continuous effort - not strength or intelligence -
is the key to unlocking our potential.**
Winston Churchill


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.1 WESTERN UZBEKISTAN
5.0 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.3 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.4 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
6.3 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

Yesterday, 3/20/14 -
5.0 SOUTH OF BALI, INDONESIA
5.7 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.6 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.2 NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA
5.4 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone Gillian is located approximately 834 nm north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia. The system consolidated as it tracked away from land with improved convective banding wrapping into a well-defined center, therefore, the system has been regenerated.

Philippines - Signal No. 1 up over 4 Mindanao provinces as tropical depression 'Caloy' heads for land. Eleven areas have been placed under public storm warning Signal No. 1 as “Caloy” accelerated slightly as it continued to move closer to Surigao del Sur and Davao Oriental in eastern Mindanao late Friday morning.
In its 11 a.m. bulletin, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said Caloy was last tracked 330 kilometers east-northeast of Davao City packing winds of 45 kilometers per hour near the center as it moved west at 11 kph. The places under Signal No. 1 can expect 30-60 kph winds over the next 36 hours.
Such winds are strong enough to break twigs and branches, significantly damage rice crops in the flowering stage, unroof nipa or cogon houses, and make travel by fishing boats and other small sea craft risky. The storm is expected to generate moderate to heavy rainfall of 5-15 millimeters per hour within its 300-km diameter. By Saturday morning, Caloy is forecast to be 95 km northeast of Davao City and is expected to be 70 km north of Cotabato City on Sunday morning.
By Monday, Caloy will be 150 km northwest of Zamboanga City. The weather bureau warned residents in low-lying and mountainous areas of possible flashfloods and landslides. It also warned fishing boats and other small sea craft from venturing out to sea.

Number of hurricanes reaches 30-year low - The “hurricane drought” in the U.S. continues, as last year saw the lowest number of hurricanes since 1982, according to government storm data.
For the 2013 hurricane season — which runs from June 1st to November 30th — thirteen named storms formed in the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Only two of those storms reached hurricane strength, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The National Hurricane Center reports: “BASED ON THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF ACTIVITY IN THE BASIN IS 12 NAMED STORMS…6 HURRICANES…AND 3 MAJOR HURRICANES.
FOR 2013 THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS WAS NEAR AVERAGE, BUT THE NUMBERS OF HURRICANES AND MAJOR HURRICANES WERE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. THERE WERE NO MAJOR HURRICANES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1994. AND THE NUMBER OF HURRICANES THIS YEAR WAS THE LOWEST SINCE 1982.”
Last year not only saw the fewest hurricanes since the 1980s, but it was also the THIRD STRAIGHT YEAR FOR RECORD LOW TORNADO ACTIVITY. Last year also saw NEW LOWS for tropical cyclone activity in the Eastern North Pacific.
The National Hurricane Center reports that accumulated cyclone energy, which measures the combined strength and duration of these storms, was about 67 percent below the 1981-2010 average. In 2013, it was the lowest since 1994. The Center concludes that while the number of named storms was slightly above normal, the numbers of hurricanes was near normal and major hurricanes were significantly below normal.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

U.S. Spring Flood Forecast - No Widespread Major Flooding Expected. Though the calendar says it's spring, the latest 10-day forecast from the GFS model calls for winter-like weather over the snow-covered northern tier of states in the U.S. through March 26, followed by a slow warm-up.

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Linking storms to climate change a 'distraction', say experts - Connecting extreme weather to climate change distracts from the need to protect society from high-impact weather events which will continue to happen irrespective of human-induced climate change, say experts.
The researchers argue that cutting greenhouse gas emissions, while crucial to reducing humanity's longer-term impact on the planet, will not eliminate violent storms, tornadoes or flooding and the damage they cause. The authors suggest that developing greater resilience to extreme weather events must be given greater priority if the socioeconomic impact of storms, like those that have ravaged Britain this winter, is to be reduced.
"One of the long-term effects of climate change is often predicted to be an increase in the intensity and frequency of many high-impact weather events, so reducing greenhouse gas emissions is often seen to be the response to the problem. Reducing humanity's impact on our planet should be pursued as a matter of urgency, but more emphasis must also be placed on being resilient to individual weather events, as this year's storms in Britain have so devastatingly shown."
In the past, say the authors, society responded to weather disasters with calls for greater resilience, but public awareness of manmade climate change has given climate timescales (decades and centuries) far greater importance than weather timescales (days and years). The short-term, large variability from year to year in high-impact weather makes it difficult, if not impossible, to draw conclusions about the correlation to longer-term climate change.
They argue that while large public investments in dams and flood defences, for example, must account for the possibilities of how weather might change in the future, this should not prevent short-term thinking to address more immediate vulnerability to inevitable high-impact weather events. "Avoiding construction in floodplains, implementing strong building codes, and increasing preparedness can make society more resilient to extreme weather events. But compounding the problem is that finding money for recovery is easier than spending on prevention, even if the costs of recovery are much higher."
This bias, say the authors, has a tendency to diminish the political dedication for preventative measures against extreme weather, regardless of whether they are caused or intensified by manmade influences. Yet, steps taken to protect society from the weather can protect the planet as well, they argue. "Improving forecasting, increasing preparedness or building better infrastructure can increase resilience and reduce carbon-dioxide emissions. For example, greening neighbourhoods or painting roofs lighter colours will both reduce the urban heat-island effect and reduce carbon-dioxide emissions through reduced air-conditioning costs, while making cities more resistant to storm damage would reduce emissions generated from rebuilding devastated areas."
"Linking high-impact weather events with climate change can be distracting; perpetuating the idea that reducing greenhouse gases would be enough to reduce increasingly vulnerable world populations, in our view, only confuses the public and policy-makers as to the socio-economic susceptibility to extreme weather. With or without mitigation, there is no quick-fix, single-cause solution for the problem of human vulnerability to socio-environmental change, nor is there a reasonable prospect of attenuating high-impact weather. Addressing such issues would give the world an opportunity to develop a two-pronged policy in climate security, reducing longer-term climate risks in conjunction with preventing shorter-term weather disasters."

Nine US Fisheries Waste ‘Almost Half A Billion Seafood Meals,’ - New Oceana Bycatch Report Claims. What the United States WASTES annually is nearly equivalent to what the rest of the world catches in the same time period.
A new report published by the nonprofit conservation group Oceana exposes nine of the "dirtiest" U.S. fisheries. When fishermen target a specific fish, it’s common for other species to get caught in their nets. This is known as bycatch, and it's a growing concern among nine U.S. fisheries.
“Anything can be bycatch. Whether it’s the thousands of sea turtles that are caught to bring you shrimp or the millions of pounds of cod and halibut that are thrown overboard after fishermen have reached their quota, bycatch is a waste of our ocean’s resources.” Depending on the type of fishing gear used, fishermen tend to catch everything from dolphins to sea turtles and sharks. These inadvertent catches are usually thrown overboard and tend to be injured, dead or dying.
The majority of bycatch tends to come from open ocean trawl, longline and gillnet fisheries. Researchers estimate that 20 percent of what fishermen catch in the U.S. is thrown away each year. This amounts to 2 billion pounds of wasted seafood. “The figures are astounding -- four fisheries discard 63 to 66 percent of everything they catch. If you can't quite grasp just how much that is, think of it this way: These nine fisheries waste almost half a billion seafood meals.”
The nine fisheries are: Southeast Snapper-Grouper Longline Fishery; California Set Gillnet Fishery; Southeast Shrimp Trawl Fishery; California Drift Gillnet Fishery; Gulf of Alaska Flatfish Trawl Fishery; Northeast Bottom Trawl; Mid-Atlantic Bottom Trawl Fishery Atlantic Highly Migratory Species Longline Fishery; and the New England and Mid-Atlantic Gillnet Fishery.
According to the report, the Southeast Snapper-Grouper Longline Fishery is the biggest offender, discarding 66 percent of whatever is caught. In one year, more than 400,000 sharks were caught attached to longlines. Despite the staggering numbers, the group maintains there's a solution to bycatch.
“The good news is that bycatch is a fixable problem. We need to accurately count everything that we catch, limit the amount of wasted catch in each fishery using science-based limits, and avoid catching non-target species by using more selective fishing gear.”
Besides benefiting ocean life, reducing bycatch will help fishermen too. “By eliminating wasteful and harmful fishing practices we can restore and maintain fish populations that are essential to renewed abundance and healthy oceans, while also preventing the deaths of whales, dolphins, seals and sea turtles."

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Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook - with breaking news during the day.

Thursday, March 20, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**We all live under the same sky,
but we don't all have the same horizon.**
Konrad Adenauer


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday, 3/19/14 -
5.5 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.8 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.7 TAIWAN REGION
5.5 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.

Any chance that Monday's magnitude 4.4 temblor was a prelude to a larger, more powerful earthquake was reduced to 1% Tuesday morning.
Big California Quake Likely Within 25 Years - Scientists say Monday's magnitude 4.4 earthquake in Southern California, and last week's quakes near the North Coast were simply business as usual. The predawn earthquake rolled across the Los Angeles basin Monday, rattling nerves and shaking buildings along a 150-mile stretch.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the Southwestern Pacific -
- Tropical cyclone Mike is located approximately 618 nm southwest of Papeete, Tahiti. The final advisory has already been issued on this system.

SPACE WEATHER -

SOLAR 'SUPERSTORM' NARROWLY MISSED EARTH - The heliophysics communitty is buzzing in response to an article which describes an intense solar storm that narrowly missed Earth almost two years ago. On July 23, 2012, a CME rocketed away from the sun at 2000 km/s, almost four times faster than a typical eruption.
The storm tore through Earth orbit, but fortunately Earth wasn't in that position yet. Instead it hit the STEREO-A spacecraft, which experienced the most intense solar proton storm since 1976. Researchers have been analyzing the data ever since, and they have concluded that the storm was akin to the Carrington Event of 1859.
"Had it hit Earth, it probably would have been like the big one in 1859. The effect today [on] our modern technologies would have been tremendous."
The Carrington Event was a series of powerful CMEs that hit Earth head-on, sparking Northern Lights as far south as Tahiti. Intense geomagnetic storms caused global telegraph lines to spark, setting fire to some telegraph offices and disabling the 'Victorian Internet." A similar storm today would have a catastrophic effect on modern power grids and telecommunication networks.
According to a study by the National Academy of Sciences, the total economic impact could exceed $2 trillion or 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina. Multi-ton transformers fried by such a storm could take years to repair.
What gave the July 2012 storm Carrington-like potency - For one thing, the CME was actually two CMEs separated by only 10 to 15 minutes. Plus the CMEs traveled through a region of space that had been cleared out by another CME four days earlier. As a result, they were not decelerated as much as usual by their transit through the interplanetary medium.
The storm clouds crossed Earth's orbit in a place where Earth itself would be about 1 week later, so it was a relatively narrow escape. The whole episode highlights the perils of space weather. Many observers have noted that the current solar cycle is weak, perhaps the weakest in 100 years.
Now we see that even a weak solar cycle can produce a very strong storm. Earth is not safe from these kind of events, so it's time to be prepared.

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS

Lost sleep leads to loss of brain cells, study suggests - Sleep loss may be more serious than previously thought, causing a permanent loss of brain cells. In mice, prolonged lack of sleep led to 25% of certain brain cells dying. If the same is true in humans, it may be futile to try to catch up on missed sleep, say US scientists.
The study looked at lab mice that were kept awake to replicate the kind of sleep loss common in modern life, through night shifts or long hours in the office. A team studied certain brain cells which are involved in keeping the brain alert. After several days of sleep patterns similar to those followed by night workers - three days of night shifts with only four to five hours sleep in 24 hours - the mice lost 25% of the brain cells, in part of the brain stem. The researchers say this is the first evidence that sleep loss can lead to a loss of brain cells.
But they add that more work needs to be done to find out if people who miss out on sleep might also be at risk of permanent damage. "We now have evidence that sleep loss can lead to irreversible injury. This might be in a simple animal but this suggests to us that we are going to have to look very carefully in humans." The next step was to examine the brains of shift workers after death for evidence of any loss of brain cells.
"The authors draw parallels with night shift work in humans and suggest how chronic sleep deprivation could adversely affect not only our physical, but also our mental health. This possibility will need to be tested by a lot more research. Nonetheless, it is consistent with many recent reports of importance of circadian clocks and sleep cycles for optimal well-being." In the long-term, they think it might be possible to develop a medicine that protects brain cells, by boosting a natural chemical involved in sleep recovery.

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Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Impossible is a word only to be found in the dictionary of fools.**
Napoleon


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.5 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.

Yesterday, 3/18/14 -
5.0 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.9 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.1 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.0 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.

New Zealand - Quake stress creates the 'new vulnerable'. Middle-aged Cantabrians living previously comfortable lives have been identified as a new at-risk group for post-earthquake stress.
"Secondary stressors" - including insurance woes, living in a damaged environment and loss of recreational facilities - had replaced aftershocks and safety fears as the biggest concerns. An area of focus was the "new vulnerable" - a group aged between 35 and 49 whose lives were previously "under control". They were unlikely to have sought support from social agencies in the past.
"Prior to the quakes, they had ordered, easy lives, and they've become much more disordered because they may have had to move, their jobs may have become more difficult [or] may have had insurance issues." There is a "significant group of people whose lives are very difficult and frustrating". Their exact numbers could not be determined.
"There's a concept that previously vulnerable people in society were often linked up with support agencies and they knew how to ask for support. There's this new group of people who haven't needed support before and we've never really had to work out how we get them support and assistance."
A disaster recovery psychologist said the complexity of post-disaster stress was "hard for people to grasp". "We have to be cautious about simple measures of vulnerability, and this particular disaster has got so many issues to do with the rebuild that are essentially out of people's hands. In many other disasters, it's fundamentally up to the people."
Minor aggravations, including traffic and damaged roads, could snowball by creating more "work time". "It's this loss of leisure that I think really puts people in a very stressed lifestyle because they can never come down. When people are in routine they can have the constant periods when they can unwind." Because the new vulnerable were not used to seeking help they risked "not doing anything", which added to the stress. "They don't get found either because they think they have to sit it out and don't think they do have options."
Identifying them was a "bloody difficult job". "How do you connect with these people, apart from going to every individual household?"

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

No current tropical storms.

Australia - Wild weather could be on way as Hadi spins back. The Mackay region could be in for some more wild weather later this week. While nothing is certain, the Bureau of Meteorology is predicting ex-Tropical Cyclone Hadi will spin its way back towards the east coast over the next few days.
The former tropical cyclone would most likely approach the coast late tomorrow or Friday. "We are still unsure whether it will form back into a cyclone. At this stage ex-Tropical Cyclone Hadi will remain as a tropical low." Yesterday, the Bureau said the low was south of the Solomon Islands and moving west.

A potential cyclone entered the Philippine area of responsibility before dawn on Wednesday. A low pressure area (LPA) was spotted 845 kilometers east of Mindanao as of 4 a.m. The LPA entered PAR at 2 a.m. and was moving west-northwest at 19 kilometers per hour. The LPA still has a slim chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. The LPA is forecast to bring cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and thunderstorms to Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas and Mindanao.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

The California rainy season is close to its end. Rain-bearing low pressure systems typically stop bringing heavy rains to the state by mid-April, as the jet stream shifts to the north in its usual springtime migration.
With no rain in the forecast for the next seven days, and the 16-day GFS forecast showing mostly light rains affecting the northern portion of the state 8 - 16 days from now, California has likely seen at least 90% of the precipitation that it’s going to get this anemic rainy season.
That’s a huge concern for a state suffering through its worst winter drought conditions in recorded history, and Sierra snow pack and reservoir levels near record lows. This year’s drought could well be a harbinger of the future, as climate change is expected to cause increased water availability problems in California. The state is going to have to find new sources of water in the future to support its growing population.

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Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**The more you sweat in practice,
the less you bleed in battle.**
Author Unknown


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.

Yesterday, 3/17/14 -
5.6 SOUTH GEORGIA ISLAND REGION
5.3 TAIWAN REGION
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 CERAM SEA, INDONESIA
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.3 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.0 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.0 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.0 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
6.2 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.0 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.1 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE

California - 6:25 a.m. Monday, March 17, a 4.4-magnitude earthquake rattled LA. Shaking and jolted nerves reported across a wide area. The quake struck near Westwood.

Chile earthquake resulted in minor damage, brief evacuations. The strong 6.7-magnitude earthquake shook Chile's northern Pacific shore Sunday.

New Zealand - Alpine Fault quake risk 'increasing'. People in Canterbury have been warned that while the likelihood of localised earthquakes is reducing, the risk of a major shake along the Alpine Fault is increasing. While the region is heading into a period of reduced seismicity of faults near the city, quakes centred in the Southern Alps are an increasing risk.

VOLCANOES -
Iceland - Hekla Volcano "could erupt soon". The magma chamber under volcano Hekla is now almost full, according to a professor in geophysics at University of Iceland, indicating that an eruption could occur sometime soon. Hekla, which is the most active volcano in Iceland, could erupt with very short notice. People should not climb the mountain.
The police in Rangárvallasýsla recommend that people who intend on hiking up Hekla volcano take their mobile phones with them so that if measurements show that an eruption is imminent, they can be contacted via sms. Geologists have been expecting an eruption since 2006.
During the last eruption, in 2000, it took just 79 minutes from the first quake until eruption, and that was longer than in previous eruptions. Hekla has erupted more than 20 times in the last 1,000 years. The last big eruption in Hekla was in 1947. ( Hekla webcam )

Canary Islands - El Hierro volcano update: new pulse of volcanic tremor near La Restinga? What looks like a new swarm of earthquakes accompanied by strong harmonic tremor appeared on the southernmost seismic station at La Restinga.
If it is not due to some local, human-induced work or malfunction, it suggests that the quakes are very shallow, since they don't appear on the signals of other stations. Whatever is happening there will probably become clearer soon. The latest earthquake swarm in the NE part of the island which started on Friday had more or less stopped during the past 24 hours. Some GPS stations showed 2-4 cm uplift during the weekend, which supports the idea of a new deep magma intrusion.

Earthquake Swarms may Indicate Imminent Volcanic Eruption - Earthquake swarms, seismic events marked by sequences of many earthquakes in a short period of time, may signal imminent volcanic eruptions because they are triggered by blocked lava flow, according to a new study, and scientists suggest these types of earthquakes can be used to give the public warning of an impending eruption.
The research on earthquake swarms preceding volcanic eruption led the researchers to believe that they were caused by subterranean lava behaving abnormally. "Our article talks about a special type of volcanic earthquake that we think is caused by lava breaking, something that usually can't happen because lava is supposed to flow more like a liquid, rather than crack like a piece of rock. Much like breaking a piece of chewing gum by stretching it really fast, lab tests show that hot lava can break when stretched quickly enough under certain pressures like those that you might find in the conduit of a volcano."
The researchers contend that because the focus of the earthquake swarm at Augustine Volcano moved deeper into the earth, it indicates the magma conduit was getting clogged. As pressure built inside the clogged conduit, it may have triggered the eruption of Augustine Volcano the following day.
"We think that these earthquakes happened within the lava that was just beginning to erupt at the top of Augustine. The earthquakes show that the lava flow was grinding to a halt and plugging up the system. This caused pressure to build up from below, and resulted in a series of large explosions 36 hours later. We believe that these types of earthquakes can be used to signal that a volcano is becoming pressurized and getting ready to explode, giving scientists time to alert the public of an imminent eruption."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

No current tropical storms.

Vietnam - This year, the number of tropical storms and depressions on the East Sea is predicted to be less than the average of many years. Vietnam will have 10 storms and tropical depressions in 2014.

Hong Kong should prepare for 4-7 typhoons this year, says Observatory.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

RECORD-BREAKING SNOWFALL for St. Patrick's Day in New Jersey - For the record-breaking holiday, the National Weather Service measured 4.7 inches of snow at Philadelphia International Airport on Monday.

RECORD-BREAKING SNOWFALL around nation's capital - The National Weather Service said a winter storm on Monday was breaking snowfall records around Washington D. C.

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Monday, March 17, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Some things have to be believed to be seen.**
Ralph Hodgson

Here's to seeing lots of leprechauns
and pots of gold this St. Patrick's Day!


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.1 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
6.2 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.0 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.1 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE

Yesterday, 3/16/14 -
5.1 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
6.7 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.1 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

No current tropical storms.

Weather bomb fails to go off - The remnants of what had been tropical cyclone Lusi were due to strike the Wellington region of New Zealand overnight, but the capital emerged relatively unscathed.

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Sunday, March 16, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster updates.

**Freedom is the greatest fruit of self-sufficiency.**
Epicurus


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.1 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA

Yesterday, 3/15/14 -
6.4 NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN PERU
6.2 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.1 OWEN FRACTURE ZONE REGION
5.5 LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
5.2 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.2 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA

3/14/14 -
5.1 TONGA REGION
5.4 SOUTH OF AFRICA
5.1 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.1 SOUTHEAST OF EASTER ISLAND
5.2 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.4 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.1 SERAM, INDONESIA

TROPICAL STORMS -

No current tropical storms.

New Zealand - [What's left of] Tropical Cyclone Lusi is poised to hit Wellington with vengeance today and Monday, with 120kmh northwesterly gales predicted to hit the capital on Sunday night and through in to Monday morning.
Northwesterly winds would strengthen throughout the day on Sunday reaching galeforce winds on Sunday night. The storm is expected to move down the western side of New Zealand tonight and then cross over the South Island. That means Wellington will get rain as the system passes through - and then severe northwesterly gales once it is south of the capital tomorrow. And is likely Cyclone Lusi will turn back for a second blow.
Wellington Electricity and Kapiti and Horowhenua lines company Electra are on high alert. While equipment is built to withstand wild weather, both companies have extra staff on call this weekend in case lines are blown down. Motorists are being asked to check road conditions before travelling. Particular caution is advised on the Desert Road, Rimutaka Hill Road and the Haywards Hill section of State Highway 58.
Across the rest of New Zealand - The Fire Service has responded to about 40 incidents in the northern region today, as the storm makes its way down the country. Most were in Northland but calls were coming in from the Mahurangi and Rodney areas. There have been more than 2000 power outages, as well as landslips, rockfalls, trees down and flooding around the region.
There were reports of roads being flooded near Auckland Airport and several boats broke their moorings in the city's habour.The largest recorded wind gust in the Auckland area was registered at 122kmh on Channel Island in the Hauraki Gulf. Northern Auckland was worst hit by rain with 40mm falling today as of 11am. "We are expecting bad sea conditions which may cause erosion of beaches and nearby low-lying areas. "People should stay out of the water and off those beaches for the rest of today."

Hurricane facts: Florida hit more often in even years.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

U.S. - Winter not yet done, more snow for parts of US. Spring is just days away but winter is not leaving quietly. Much of the East Coast enjoyed spring-like temperatures Saturday. That’s expected to change by Monday with the arrival of another late- winter storm.
The National Weather Service says snow is expected from the Central Appalachians to the Jersey Shore. Parts of Virginia and West Virginia could receive up to 10 inches of snow. Rain and thunderstorms are expected in the Southeast, some of which could be strong. Authorities are investigating whether straight line winds or a tornado led to a building collapse Sunday morning in Atmore, Alabama. Atmore police say no injuries were reported.

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -

+ February 2014 Global Weather Extremes Summary - February featured a number of extreme weather events. Among the most notable were the floods affecting the U.K., severe ice storms in Slovenia, heavy snowfalls along the shores of the Caspian Sea and in the Tokyo area, and bitter cold in the north-central portion of the U.S. (Highlights with maps at link.)

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