Friday, February 28, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Excuse me while I do
the annual boogaloo.**


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.0 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.1 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

Yesterday, 2/27/14 -
5.4 DRAKE PASSAGE

VOLCANOES -
Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico) - Surge in activity destroys existing lava dome and leaves new crater. The volcano's activity increased Wednesday. CENAPRED counted no less than 544 small to moderate emissions during the 24 hours between 25-26 Feb.
An overflight with the support of the Navy showed that the most recent lava dome (number 48) had been destroyed by this activity. At its place, a new funnel-shaped pit, approx 80 m deep was seen. At the bottom of this crater, a new lava dome of 20-30 m diameter already made its appearance. The elevated activity had been preceded by volcano-tectonic earthquakes of magnitude 2.6 and 1.6 Wednesday and the day before. The volcano's alert level remains unchanged at "Yellow phase 2".

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the Western Pacific -
- Tropical depression Three is located approximately 308 nm south-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam.

Fiji hit by heavy rains and flooding as tropical depression approaches the country. Fiji will likely be spared the worst of a tropical depression that's formed over the country. Heavy rain over the past two days has brought flooding to several parts of the main island of Viti Levu, including the capital Suva. At 6am local time, the tropical depression was located about 170 kilometres north-northeast of Labasa, and was moving north-east at about 14 kilometres an hour.
The director of Fiji Bureau of Meteorology says there remains a risk of the depression intensifying as it crosses Fiji. "We're now focusing on this tropical depression - it's projected to come down over the Fiji group later tonight and early tomorrow, and expected to leave the Fiji group tomorrow. Indications are it will possibly become a tropical cyclone later Saturday, early Sunday, and by that time it should be on its way out of Fiji. If it does come South over Fiji group, it's bound to bring more rain, but hopefully not the winds associated with it."
The climate advisor to the Pacific Regional Environment Programme says the tropical depression is still likely to form into a cyclone, which is now expected to hit Tonga. "We could see a cyclone out of this depression - the good new for Fiji is that it won't probably occur until it has moved away form the Fiji region towards Tonga - which is not so good news for Tonga. In Fiji we have been spared he worst of any destructive winds - there's just been very heavy rain." Category Five Tropical Cyclone Ian storm devastated the northern Tongan islands of Ha'apai last month, leaving one person dead and more than a thousand buildings destroyed.
Rain and flood warnings - There are flood warnings on the main island of Viti Levu, and officials say the current high tide could cause extra problems. Schools have closed and non-essential government staff have been told to stay home. "Most of the heavy rain we experienced over the last two days has eased...but there's still quite a bit of heavy rain in the north, which will bring flooding to parts of the north. Most of the rivers remain high, if not over their banks, so it won't take much further rain to bring more flooding. We are expecting more rain to come later today and we anticipate there will be further flooding out of this situation."
The most populated areas are the hardest hit. "People are prepared in terms of taking heed of the warnings they've been given meaning that they were moved to safer ground." Fiji's Ministry of Information says schools will remain closed on Friday and government employees should remain home until further notice. A number of evacuation centres have been opened and people are moving in. On its Facebook page, the Ministry of Information says unnecessary travel is discouraged, while transport and road accessibility may be limited. It advised people to store essential items including boiled drinking water and keep a first aid kit within reach.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

U. S. - A very moist “Pineapple Express” atmospheric river of moisture from the Hawaiian Islands was bringing much-needed rains to nearly all of California Thursday. A narrow “Atmospheric River” of moisture is extending from the subtropics near Hawaii into Southern California. A larger pulse of moisture is curled up a few hundred miles offshore, and will arrive on Friday.< br/> As of 7 am PST, Downtown Los Angeles had received 0.97" of rain since midnight. The last calendar day when Los Angeles received more than 1" of rainfall was over two years ago - Oct. 5, 2011, when 1.15” fell. Substantial rains also fell in Central California, and heavy rains triggered a rock slide that shut down Highway 1 in Big Sur Wednesday night.
Rains that fell over California on February 8 - 9 raised water levels on the critical Central California reservoir Folsom Lake by twelve feet in one day, and boosted water levels above the record low levels set during 1977. Rainfall in the Folsom Lake drainage basin on February 26 - 27 has been about 0.5 - 1.5", which will raise the lake level even more.
A second, stronger storm system will hit California on Friday and Saturday, generating 1 - 3" rainfall totals for most coast and valley locations in Southern California, with 3 - 6" in the foothills and coastal mountain slopes. The powerful storm will be capable of spawning severe thunderstorms with wind gusts in excess of 58 mph, and a few waterspouts and weak tornadoes.
The NWS office in Los Angeles is warning that Friday and Saturday's storm has the potential to bring rainfall rates of up to 1 - 2" per hour in the foothills and coastal mountain slopes, which will be capable of causing debris flows in areas recently burned by fires. About a foot of snow will likely fall from 6000 feet to 7000 feet, and 1 - 3' of snow is likely above 7000 feet. In the Sierras of Central California, 1 - 2' of snow is expected.
This storm, which has been named "Titan", will move eastwards over the weekend, and an Arctic front will combine with moisture associated with Titan to produce near-blizzard conditions across the northern Rockies Friday into Friday night. As it moves through the Central Plains, the storm will strengthen and begin to pull Gulf moisture northward into the cold air, triggering moderate to heavy snows across portions of Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri Saturday night into Sunday.
The snow will spread across Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. on Monday, and along the southern side of the snow band, a significant ice storm is likely. The ice storm will affect Oklahoma through Southern Missouri, northern Arkansas and northern Kentucky Saturday night and Sunday, and by Sunday night, parts of the Mid-Atlantic across Virginia and Maryland may also see significant icing. Small changes in the track of the storm will move the areas of freezing rain tens of miles north or south of the current forecast, so stay tuned to the latest forecasts. (rain & drought maps)

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -

New research suggests a strong link between the powerful smell of pine trees and climate change. Scientists say they've found a mechanism by which these scented vapours turn into aerosols above boreal forests. These particles promote cooling by reflecting sunlight back into space and helping clouds to form.
The research fills in a major gap in our understanding, researchers say. One of the biggest holes in scientific knowledge about climate change relates to the scale of the impact of atmospheric aerosols on temperatures. These particles form clouds that block sunlight as well as reflecting rays back into space. They can be formed in a number of ways, including volcanic activity and by humans, through the burning of coal and oil.
One of the most significant but least understood sources of aerosols are the sweet-smelling vapours found in pine forests in North America, northern Europe and Russia. These aerosols have confounded climate models as scientists haven't been able to accurately predict how many of the particles form. Now an international team of researchers say they have solved the chemical mystery by which the rich odours become reflective, cooling particles.
They've long understood that the smell of pine, made up of volatile organic compounds, reacts with oxygen in the forest canopy to form these aerosols. The scientists now found that, in fact, there is an extra step in the process, what they term a "missing link". They've discovered ultra-low volatility organic vapours in the air that irreversibly condense onto any surface or particle that they meet.
"These vapours are so crazy in structure from what we had known before. It turns out that this level of craziness is what gives them the special properties to stick to those smallest particles and help grow them up in size to become aerosols." The scientists say that having a clear understanding of the way in which forest smells become aerosols will improve the accuracy with which they can predict the ability of these particles to limit rising temperatures.
"It's certainly crucial for explaining the response of the boreal forest to a changing climate. It's thought that the vapours being emitted from the vegetation in the pine forests are contributing roughly half of the aerosols over the forest. We've found the reasons how the vapours get converted into particles, so we are basically explaining around 50% of the aerosol particles."
The authors believe that this is playing a significant role in reducing the impact of rising temperatures. They argue that this effect is likely to strengthen in the future. "In a warmer world, photosynthesis will become faster with rising CO2, which will lead to more vegetation and more emissions of these vapours. This should produce more cloud droplets and this should then have a cooling impact, it should be a damping effect."
"One very important thing is that before now, people haven't had the instrumentation to detect these ultra-low volatile compounds. When you pull them through a metal tube into your instrument they come into contact with the tube walls and they are lost, you won't detect them. We have an instrument that is as wall-less as can be, we have a very high flow of air and a very short inlet line so that it is almost sampled right from atmosphere."
The scientists stress that the new understanding is not a panacea for climate change as forests will stop emitting vapours if they become too stressed from heat or lack of water. However, the vapours could have a significant impact in the medium term. "If you go into a pine forest and notice that pine forest smell, that could be the smell that actually limits climate change from reaching such levels that it could become really a problem in the world."

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS


SPACE WEATHER -
Northern Lights illuminate the UK - Large parts of the UK, from Scotland to southern England, saw a RARE spectacular display of the aurora borealis, better known as the northern lights.

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Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook - with breaking news during the day.

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Don't quote me on this....**


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.3 DRAKE PASSAGE [below South America]

Yesterday, 2/26/14 -
6.1 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
Indonesia - Mount Marapi in Indonesia's West Sumatra province erupted Wednesday, shooting ash to the sky and incurring a downpour of ash and volcanic sand up to 10 km to the south of the crater. Powerful bursts of ash, sand and gravel erupted from the volcano located in Tanah Datar and Agam districts at 4.15 p.m. Jakarta time.
However, the height of the column could not be determined visually as visibility was impaired by haze enveloping West Sumatra due to forest fire in the neighbouring province of Riau. The authorities have closed the area within a three-km danger zone from the crater as the volcano is on third-highest alert level. So far, the authorities have not recommended any evacuation.
Mount Sinabung in North Sumatra and Mount Kelud in East Java, two most active volcanoes in the country, erupted earlier this month, claiming 24 lives and displacing over 160,000 people. Mount Marapi is among 129 active volcanoes in Indonesia.
Mount Kelud - Although the government has not decreased the alert status of Mount Kelud in East Java, many public facilities resumed operations, including Yogyakarta’s Adisucipto International Airport, which reopened last Wednesday after being closed for five days due to thick layers of ash from the volcano’s eruption.
Small amounts of volcanic ash could still be seen on both sides of the runway last Wednesday evening. The eruption forced the closure of seven airports across Java. The Yogyakarta branch of the Indonesian Hotel and Restaurant Association reported that volcanic ash from last Thursday night’s eruption of had caused thousands of tourists to cancel their visits to Yogyakarta. “The financial losses that hotels in Yogyakarta are suffering from the situation could exceed Rp 2 billion per day." The figure was calculated based both on cancellations of tourists’ visits and physical damage caused by the thick layers of volcanic ash.
Although many public facilities have reopened and people have resumed their daily activities, everyone — especially evacuees — is reminded to remain cautious about the potential dangers of the mountain, especially the threat of lahar, or “cold lava” flow. Lahar could take the form of up to 105 million cubic meters of volcanic materials, carried by water, flowing down from the mountain. Therefore, they called on evacuees from the areas of Kediri, Malang and Blitar to remain in shelters until further notice. Many evacuees, however, have reportedly returned home.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

No current tropical storms.

Tropical Pacific Heating Up - The tropics are heating up across the Pacific Basin with three areas of concern being monitored. One of these areas could yield the year's first typhoon in the western Pacific.
Most of the Pacific has been void of organized tropical systems so far this month, but that will change as February gives way to March. Tropical development will occur in the near future southeast of Guam, while a tropical cyclone is expected to soon take shape near Fiji. This weekend through early next week, yet another tropical cyclone may form south of the Solomon Islands.
A tropical low spinning southeast of Guam is expected to soon officially develop into a tropical depression. AccuWeather.com meteorologists anticipate the low to crawl westward or west-northwestward through Saturday before targeting Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands early next week. After officially becoming a tropical depression, all the ingredients are in place for the low to continue strengthening into a tropical storm. It is not out of the question that the low becomes a minimal typhoon, the first of 2014 for the western Pacific and with strength equal to that of a Category 1 hurricane in the Atlantic Basin.
"Guam will receive 125-250 mm (5-10 inches) of rain through early next week with the potential for more." That amount of rain is sure to trigger flash flooding and mudslides in the higher elevations. "The danger of coastal flooding along the eastern beaches will also increase through the weekend ahead of the low's arrival as persistent northeasterly winds howl and drive the ocean's water onshore." The severity of the damaging winds across the islands early next week will depend on the exact peak strength of the low.
The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is also keeping a close eye on another tropical low spinning immediately to the east of Fiji. A tropical cyclone with its strength equal to that of a tropical storm is expected to take shape gradually as the low spins near Fiji through Friday (local time) then crawls southeastward this weekend. Gusty winds and rough surf will become more of an issue as the low strengthens. The threat of flooding rain and damaging winds will then shift to Tonga this weekend as the low tracks southeastward.
Future Area of Concern South of Solomon Islands - This weekend is also when another tropical cyclone may begin forming south of the Solomon Islands. Latest indications point toward this future tropical cyclone dropping southward through the Coral Sea next week and possibly becoming stronger than the low currently near Fiji. AccuWeather.com meteorologists will be closely monitoring this area for potential impacts on eastern Australia later next week or the following weekend.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

U. S. - A frigid blast of Arctic air will bring SOME OF THE COLDEST LATE FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES SEEN IN DECADES to the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. this week, with temperatures 15 - 30° below normal commonplace. The cold air isn't going anywhere fast, and will stick around through early next week.
The cold blast is due to an EXTREME JET STREAM PATTERN we have seen before this winter - a sharp ridge of high pressure over California, and a large trough of low pressure over Eastern North America. This upper air pattern was described by the National Weather Service in Buffalo, New York on Tuesday as one that OCCURS LESS THAN ONCE EVERY 30 YEARS in late February.
The intense cold was already affecting the Upper Midwest Wednesday morning. Worst winter weather of the day goes to Central Minnesota at Alexandria, where a temperature of -8°F combined with winds of 14 mph to make a wind chill of -28°. The winds were expected to increase to 25 - 30 mph Wednesday afternoon with higher gusts, creating blizzard conditions.
In Chicago, the intense cold is expected to put the December - February average temperature for this winter below 19°, making the winter of 2013 - 2014 the 3rd coldest winter in the Windy City's history. Only the winters of 1978 - 1979 and 1903 - 1904 were colder.
Unlike previous versions of this extreme jet stream pattern, though, the ridge over the Western U.S. will not be very persistent. The ridge of high pressure over California, which brought numerous record high temperatures for the date on Tuesday, will get broken down by a weak low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday.
On Friday and Saturday, a more intense storm system will smash through the ridge, bringing moderate to heavy rain to much of drought-parched California. This storm will then track eastwards, potentially bringing a major snowstorm and destructive ice storm on Monday to Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.

SPACE WEATHER -

X-FLARE! Long-lived sunspot AR1967 returned to the Earthside of the sun on Feb. 25th and promptly erupted, producing an X4.9-class solar flare. This is the strongest flare of the year so far and one of the strongest of the current solar cycle.
Radio emissions from shock waves at the leading edge of the CME suggest an expansion velocity near 2000 km/s or 4.4 million mph. If such a fast-moving cloud did strike Earth, the resulting geomagnetic storms could be severe. However, because its trajectory is so far off the sun-Earth line, the CME will deliver a no more than a glancing blow. NOAA forecasters expect a weak impact today.
The long-lived sunspot is now beginning its third trip across the Earthside of the sun. This region was an active producer of flares during its previous transits, and it looks like the third time will be no different. By tradition, sunspots are renumbered each time they return, so AR1967 has been given a new name, AR1990.

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Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook - with breaking news during the day.

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

*My computer was resurrected, then had another meltdown. I've also come down with the flu, so I've updated only the quakes today. Sorry for the lack of updates.*


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday - 2/25/14 -
5.0 ALASKA PENINSULA
5.2 DRAKE PASSAGE
5.1 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.0 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA

2/24/14 -
5.2 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.2 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.3 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.0 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.6 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.3 MOLUCCA SEA

2/23/14 -
5.0 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.3 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.4 KURIL ISLANDS

2/22/14 -
5.6 SCOTIA SEA
5.2 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA

2/21/14 -
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.1 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.2 OFFSHORE FALCON, VENEZUELA
5.1 LA RIOJA, ARGENTINA

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

No current tropical storms.

Friday, February 21, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

*Sorry for the late update, another snowstorm - 10 inches this time, but I think I finally solved the computer meltdown - a non-functioning cooling fan. We'll see - hopefully I'll be back to regular updates now.*


LARGEST QUAKES today -
5.4 TAIWAN
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.1 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.2 OFFSHORE FALCON, VENEZUELA
5.1 LA RIOJA, ARGENTINA

Yesterday, 2/20/14 -
5.0 SOUTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
5.0 GREENLAND SEA
5.2 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

2/19/14 -
5.2 SAKHALIN, RUSSIA
5.3 LARA, VENEZUELA

VOLCANOES -
Under Active Volcanoes, Magma Sits in Cold Storage - Strike that iconic image of a tall, snow-capped volcano sitting atop a liquid pool of hot, molten magma. It turns out that many volcanoes prefer cold storage, a new study suggests. The findings come from a detailed study of crystals in lavas at Oregon's Mount Hood, from two different eruptions 220 years ago and about 1,500 years ago. These crystals formed inside the volcano's magma chamber, and provide a chronology and a temperature history.
The crystals were trapped beneath the volcano, at surprisingly cold temperatures, for as long as 100,000 years. The magma was so cold it was like a jar of old honey from the fridge — sticky and full of crystals. That means, most of the time, it was too sluggish to erupt. The researchers think that it took a hot kiss of fresh magma, rising from deep in Earth, to reheat the molten rock until it was thin enough to blast into the sky.
"This tells us that the standard state of magma for this system is that it can't be erupted. That means that having a magma that can erupt is a special condition. Our expectation is that there's a lot of volcanoes that behave this way." The results suggest that monitoring volcanoes for liquid magma could warn of coming eruptions. Not all kinds of volcanoes behave like Mount Hood — Hawaii, for instance, is built differently, atop a giant hot spot — but most of the world's most active volcanoes are in similar settings.
"If you can see a body of magma that has a high amount of liquid, perhaps this magma is getting ready to erupt or at least has some potential to erupt. It wouldn't be a slam-dunk guarantee." The liquid cut-off is about 50 percent crystals More crystals than that and the magma is too thick to squeeze out of fractures leading to the surface.
Mount Hood's chilly magma reservoir sits about 2.5 to 3 miles (4 to 5 kilometers) beneath the surface. Its temperature is usually 1,380 degrees Fahrenheit (750 degrees Celsius), according to an analysis of the crystals. The magma stored under Mount Hood may quickly shift from cold to hot once newer, warmer molten rock arrives from lower levels, deeper in Earth's crust or mantle. "We can see chemical traces of new magma reacting [with the old], and the time to eruption was only days to weeks, maybe months."

Nigeria prepares for possible poisonous gas, flooding from volcanic eruption - The Federal Government of Nigeria said it has put in place measures to control the threat of poisonous gas and flooding that may likely occur as a result of eruption from the weak volcanic Lake Nyos located along the line of volcanic activities in Cameroun.
In anticipation of the environmental disaster that may accompany the breakdown of the lake Nyos in Cameroun which may push the poisonous water to States such as Taraba, Benue, Cross River, Kogi and Delta, the federal government has embarked on construction of buffer dam that would accommodate the poisonous water. The Dam is located between Kashimbila and Gomovo town on River Katsina Ala, Takum Local Government Taraba State close to the country’s border with Cameroun.
The Kashimbila multi purpose Dam has an Airstrip constructed to facilitate the evacuation of people who are leaving in the area to a safe place if the lake eventually breaks before the Dam is completed. The airstrip will serve as an added infrastructure to support economic activities in the Dam.
“The Idea of the Dam came about as a result of response by the Nigerian Government to the likely environmental challenges that we might encounter if the Lake Nyos in Cameroun breaks. The Lake is at a terrible stage and if it breaks, it would cause a lot of disaster to Nigerians, so the Nigerian Government is building this Dam to contain the excess water that would be released in the event of the lake eventually breaks down." The Dam is about 75 per cent completie.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the South Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone Guito is located approximately 850 nm south-southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Extreme weather in Ireland leaves farmers and fishermen on brink of ruin. Relentless bad weather has caused thousands of hectares of farmland to remain submerged under flood waters while hundreds of trawlers and their fishing crews have been unable to fish for several weeks.
Irish Farmers Association said the extreme weather since the start of the year, coupled with the start of the lambing and calving season, was making conditions for farm families around the country "very difficult". He warned that farmers' only sources of income – their farms – remain under water and beyond use. Saturated land means all livestock have to be housed for some time yet with an inevitable increase in workload and costs as a result.
But despite the hardships, consumers will not be paying higher prices because supplies of food coming to market were assured. And shops are getting supplies of fish from frozen stocks and from imports from Britain. Most fishermen have not been able to put to sea for the past eight weeks and are suffered "huge stress" with no income to meet mortgage repayments on homes and trawlers.
70% to 80% of trawlers have been forced to remain tied up in harbours for two months because of storms and ongoing gales."It's 15 years since we've suffered such a prolonged spell of storms of this magnitude. And it doesn't look like abating anytime soon. "Just like farmers, we are food producers too. Fishermen should have more access to compensation." Some fishermen are now considering bankruptcy.
There is no access to temporary social welfare payments for fishermen and many are becoming increasingly desperate. Compensation available for lobster and other inshore fishermen must be extended to trawlers unable to catch whitefish, they claim. In light of the "astonishing levels of damage" inflicted by Storm Darwin, the Government was urged to urgently re-visit their decision not to apply to the EU's Solidarity Fund for assistance in repairing wrecked infrastructure and businesses all over Ireland. The "utter destruction" of farm facilities and farmland in the worst affected areas must result in those farmers being included in any compensation package. They had enormous sympathy for the flood-hit people in towns and cities but many farming communities, particularly in the West, suffered huge destruction.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Severe snowstorm in Japan kills 19 Monday, wreaks havoc in transportation system. At least 19 people have died in snow-related incidents after the RECORD-BREAKING STORM, with the storm next battering the northern island of Hokkaido.
Many of the casualties were involved in car accidents, while others were crushed to death after roofs collapsed. More than 6,900 people were trapped in small communities cut off by snow-blocked roads and railway lines, while gasoline deliveries to some petrol stations were delayed due to impassable roads. In Yamanashi prefecture west of Tokyo, stores were facing a serious fresh food shortage. The Prime Minister was promising to send a government team to help the struggling area.
Toyota, Honda and Suzuki were forced to suspend operations at a total of nine of their factories in central and eastern Japan on Monday due to parts shortage and workers' absence following the heavy snow. The storm was moving towards northernmost Hokkaido, Japan's meteorological agency said, warning of heavy snow, blizzards and avalanches as well as HIGH WAVES along the northeastern coast, which was battered by a quake-sparked tsunami almost three years ago.
Despite around-the-clock clearing efforts, hundreds of cars on Monday remained stuck on some mountain roads, leaving drivers stranded. National Route 18 that runs through Gunma and Nagano prefectures north of Tokyo was still partly closed, with cars stuck along several kilometers due to the heavy snow. Members of Japan's Self-Defense Forces have also stepped in to help.

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -

El Nino coming this year? - We are seeing increasing evidence of an upcoming change in the Pacific Ocean base state that favors the development of a moderate-to-strong El Niño event this Spring/Summer. What does this mean for the U.S. this summer? It’s still a bit early to be certain, but typical conditions over the U.S. during strong El Niño’s favor a ridge over the West and a trough over the East. Therefore, you typically see warmer than average summers over the West Coast, and colder than average temperatures over eastern two thirds of the nation.
BOTTOM LINE: The Pacific Ocean is now in a state that could reconstruct the base state of the Pacific, favoring an El Niño to develop later this Spring. That being said, it’s not a locked in solution yet as we need to monitor the atmosphere for future westerly wind bursts to help push the Western Pacific Warm Pool along. (long article and maps at link)

HEALTH THREATS -

Stroke risk tied to cold weather, high humidity and big daily temperature swings.

RECALLS & ALERTS


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Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook - with breaking news during the day.

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

Sorry for missing the last two days of updates - I've had a complete computer meltdown and am still trying to get it working. Next the snowstorm stopped me from getting to the library to use their computers. It's so frustrating!


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday, 2/18/14 -
5.9 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.7 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
6.5 EAST OF MARTINIQUE, WINDWARD IS.
5.4 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.5 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA

2/17/14 -
5.0 UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
5.0 TONGA
5.5 NORTHERN COLOMBIA
5.4 LUZON, PHILIPPINES
5.2 TONGA REGION
5.7 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.0 VANUATU
5.1 OFFSHORE COQUIMBO, CHILE

2/16/14 -
5.0 TONGA

VOLCANOES -
Indonesia - Mount Kelud's eruption last Thursday has damaged 70 percent of protected forests within a radius of three kilometers around the volcano, a forestry company spokesman stated. Total forests that have been severely damaged have reached more than 2,580 hectares. The forests that have been damaged reached 70 percent of the total forests on the mountains slopes covering 3,885.4 hectares of them.
"This is still our temporary estimate made based on the 1990 eruption that destroyed up to a radius of five kilometers." Besides that, Perhutani has also directly checked the affected area. The worst damage was found in Plot 3, RPH Penataran in Wingli reaching 1,375 hectares out of a total of 1,738.4 hectares. The area is located right in the middle of the crater or the eruption center.
An equal amount of damage was found at Plot 6A in Wlingi reaching 1,205 hectares out of a total of 2,146.9 hectares. "Total loss suffered by the state is estimated to be at Rp 19 billion." Damages were also found in a number of production forests in buffer zones beyond a radius of three kilometer from the peak. However, it is believed it was not as bad as those within a radius of three kilometer from the crater.
"As in the 1990 eruption, molten lava and hot volcanic materials have caused massive destruction. It would take three to four years to rehabilitate the forests based on this estimate." Perhutani in Blitar is still collecting forest destruction data before reporting the final results to the ministry of forestry for future rehabilitation planning.
The price of shallots and red chili in Batam have been affected by Mount Kelud’s eruption in Kediri, East Java. The supply of shallots and red chili from Brebes, Central Java, has been disrupted and subsequently had caused prices to rise. “A number of flights connecting Java with other regions — including Batam — were grounded, which disrupted supply."
Surveys conducted by the agency in several markets recorded that red chili cost between Rp 60,000 (US$5.10) and Rp 80,000 per kilogram (kg). The usual price is Rp 50,000. Shallots supplied from Java were being sold for around Rp 100,000 per kg from the usual Rp 70,000 per kg. Batam gets a lot of its edible commodities, such as rice and vegetables from Java and Sumatra. Areas in North Sumatra, such as Brastagi, were still recovering after Mount Sinabung, Karo, erupted, only adding to the pressure on prices in Batam.
The Bank Indonesia Riau Islands chapter head said the limited supply of commodities had caused average monthly inflation of 0.16 percent since October last year and 7.62 percent year-on-year, which were both quite high.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the South Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone Guito is located approximately 400 nm west of Antananarivo, Madagascar.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

U. S. - A speedy winter storm that blew through parts of the Great Lakes and East on Tuesday is expected to leave a trail of warmer weather and rain that should provide a respite for residents weary of weeks of bitter cold but create the potential for flooding and collapsing roofs in some areas.
Clogged storm drains could cause ponding and puddles on roads, and in Ohio the National Weather Service said the combination of melting snow and more rain could cause significant flooding. In Michigan, where several roof collapses have been reported since January, there was concern that rain on top of snow could lead to more.
Temperatures above freezing in places where the storm passed through Tuesday should move up to the 40s to mid-50s for the rest of the week in New York. Despite the warming and some expected rain on Wednesday and Friday, flooding will not be a concern in New England. "The snow can handle a lot of rain. It's not like we're looking at temperatures into the upper 50s and mid-60s. The snow's not going to all melt away all at once. By next week, we'll be back down to normal and below normal temperatures."
The storm took thundersnow to Pittsburgh and areas northeast of the city. Pennsylvania Turnpike officials reduced speed limits along the entire 360-mile highway system but later lifted most of them. The latest storm came days after the Southeast and Northeast were paralyzed with heavy snow, ice and massive power outages. It dumped about a foot of snow in parts of northern New England. Heavy snow fell Tuesday afternoon and picked up in intensity as the evening commute began.
In New Hampshire, 12 inches of snow were reported in New Boston, and there were 10 in Nashua and other places. In Maine, nearly 10 inches of snow fell in Kennebunk, which is on the coast, and close to 9 fell in Portland. In Vermont, 5.5 inches fell in Rochester. Parts of Massachusetts saw 10 or 11 inches. There were no immediate reports of any major Northeast traffic messes caused by the bad weather, which was expected to move out late Tuesday and early Wednesday.
New Hampshire reduced the speed limit on all of its highways to 45 mph. Many schools in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine canceled classes for the day or sent children home early. "I'm ready for it to end. It's a pain to come home from work and have to dig out my driveway."
On Monday, several inches of snow fell across the Great Lakes, causing Chicago's two airports to cancel more than 1,000 flights. The National Weather Service said moderating temperatures would result in snow melt and possible flooding in northern Illinois. In Michigan, crashes closed portions of Interstate 96 in Grand Rapids and the Muskegon area saw whiteout conditions.
Last week, about 1.2 million utility customers lost power as the storm marched from the South through the Northeast. Schools, businesses and government offices closed. The storm was blamed for at least 25 deaths stretching from Texas to Maine.

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Climate change will hurt temperate zone countries after all ? - The standard climate change predictions said that people in the tropics and the subtropics would be badly hurt by global warming long before the people living in the temperate zones — farther away from the equator — were feeling much pain at all. But the people of the temperate zones are going to get hurt early after all, but not by gradual warming. Their weather is just going to get more and more extreme: Heat waves, blizzards and flooding on an unprecedented scale.
“In 2012 we had the second-wettest winter on record and this winter is a one-in-250-years event,” the British opposition leader says. "If you keep throwing the dice and you keep getting sixes then the dice are loaded. Something is going on.” The “something” is abrupt climate change.
In Britain, it’s an unprecedented series of great storms blowing in off the North Atlantic, dropping enormous amounts of rain and causing disastrous floods. In the United States and Canada, it’s huge blizzards, ice storms and record low temperatures that last much longer and reach much further south than normal. Welcome to the “temperate” zone of the northern hemisphere.
The extreme weather trend in North America and Europe is less than five years old, so the science that might explain exactly what is happening is still quite tentative. The first hypothesis that sounded plausible, published in 2012, blamed a slowing of the northern hemisphere’s polar jet stream. They start with the fact that the Arctic has been warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, so the difference in temperature between the Arctic air mass and the air over the temperate zone has been shrinking. Since that difference in temperature is what drives the jet stream that flows along the boundary between the two air masses, a lower difference means a slower jet stream.
Now, a fast jet stream travels in a pretty straight line around the planet from west to east, just like a mountain stream goes pretty straight downhill. A slower jet stream, however, meanders like a river crossing a flood plain — and the big loops it makes extend much further south and north than when it was moving fast. In a big southerly loop, you will have Arctic air much further south than usual, while there will be relatively warm air from the temperate air mass in a northerly loop that extends up into the Arctic. Moreover, the slower-moving jet stream tends to get “stuck,” so that a given kind of weather — snow or rain or heat — will stay longer over the same area.
Hence the “polar-vortex” winter in North America this year, the record snowfalls in Japan in 2012 and again this winter, the lethal heat waves in the eastern U.S. in 2012, and the floods in Britain this winter. “They’ve been pummelled by storm after storm this winter (in Britain). It’s been amazing what’s going on, and it’s because the pattern this winter has been stuck in one place ever since early December.” There’s no particular reason to think that it will move on soon, either.

SPACE WEATHER -

Argentina - 2/18/14 - Scientists said Tuesday that a meteor crashing to earth could explain reports of an explosion in the Argentine countryside some 350 kilometers (250 miles) northwest of Buenos Aires. The loud boom was reported at 10 am (1300 GMT) in Argentina's central-eastern province of Santa Fe. "It's possible it was a meteor," said a spokesman from the Buenos Aires Planetarium. Authorities have not yet found any meteor fragments, but "it is possible that the orb disintegrated in the air." Residents in the area who reported hearing a loud explosion Tuesday said that the ground and also buildings shook.

Sri Lanka - 2/16/14 - The stone that fell on a house in Ragala Sunday was a meteor. A group of scientists led by the Head of the Geological Survey Unit of Peradeniya University visited the area and began inspecting the stone fragments. According to the findings of the University research group, the stone was a meteor. The center was ready to send the Ragala stone to India for further The owner of the house on which the strange stone fell in Ragala Estate described the incident. The Crime Division of the Ragala police have also conducted an investigation with regard to the unknown stone fall. Prticles of the stone have scattered within an area of 26 square feet. Various reports about alien objects and stones were published in the past several weeks. (video at link)

Britain - 2/15/14 - A stargazer has described spotting "huge green fireball” in the sky over Epping as a meteor flew close to the earth. He was travelling in a car in High Street, Epping, at 6:30pm on Saturday when the object caught his eye. "It was like a bright green slash, like a fireball. My immediate thought was that it was a firework only it was coming down instead of going up before burning out completely – that’s when we realised it was a meteor....my wife thought it was the end of the world. I’m interested in astronomy so I checked online and noticed that others had seen the same.”
It transpired that there had also been various sightings across the country, including Norfolk, Plymouth, Cheshire, Bristol and Cardiff. The fireball was classified as “sporadic” as it didn’t belong to any known meteor shower. The meteor traveled at a speed of 16.3 km per second and started to burn up in the atmosphere at an altitude of 86.3km. The full event lasted 4.4 seconds and the meteor covered distance of 47.7km within the earth's atmosphere.

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Sunday, February 16, 2014

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LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.0 TONGA

Yesterday, 2/15/14 -
5.0 - ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE

"Light to Moderate" Quake Rattles South Carolina, Georgia - A small earthquake struck South Carolina late Friday, rattling residents and rocking homes both in South Carolina and across the border in Georgia. The quake measured 4.1 on the Richter scale, downgraded from an original reading of 4.4. The quake happened at 10:23 p.m. EST. The quake was centered 7 miles (12 kilometers) west-northwest of Edgefield, which is about 25 miles north of Augusta, Georgia.
Local residents reported hearing rumbling, no damage. At the time of the quake, the snow and ice dumped by an unusually severe winter storm were melting, and once-frigid temperatures were rising. Historically earthquakes are not uncommon in the region. "We usually get a number of earthquakes a year, but they average around 1 to 2 magnitude. They are usually minor shakes or vibrations."

4.6 magnitude quake hits Greek island - Since January 26, Kephalonia has been struck by 2 quakes over 5.0 in magnitude, and hundreds of aftershocks over 3.5, resulting in some damage.

VOLCANOES -
Indonesia - Volcano Eruption Forces Evacuation of 200,000. At least four people have now been reproted killed after Kelud volcano on Indonesia's main island of Java staged a major eruption. A spokesman from the National Disaster Mitigation Agency said small eruptions are possible and lightning has been striking the volcano's peak. The disaster agency said tremors from the volcano were still being felt, but scientists did not expect another major eruption. The eruption of Mount Kelud could jeopardize the 2014 general election as it is likely to wreak havoc on logistical preparations.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

No current tropical storms.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

UK storms - Engineers have been working through the night to restore power to thousands of homes cut off after the storms. The Energy Networks Association said almost one million properties had been affected over the past week but fewer than 30,000 were now without supply.
However, the prime minister warned flood levels would remain "very high" and in some areas continue to rise despite an improved weather forecast. "The agencies are working together now very closely which I think really is the key to it, the military, the police, the local councils and the power companies all doing their best to get to these sites. Sometimes there's water getting into some of the sub stations, more often it is simply lines brought down by the very, very strong winds."
"We have not been sitting around in Whitehall agonising over the current state of climate change, we have been dealing with the problems that people are facing at the moment. Making sure there are enough troops, there are enough power company workers, there are enough sandbags, making sure people have the help they need. "There will certainly be time after this to look and see how we can better protect people."
The Energy Networks Association warned some homes would still be without power on Sunday. The Labour leader said the events of recent weeks showed climate change was a "national security issue" for the UK.. He said Labour had warned climate change could destabilise "entire regions of the world" and now Britain's homes, businesses and livelihoods were "under attack". "The science is clear. The public know there is a problem. But, because of political division in Westminster, we are sleepwalking into a national security crisis on climate change."
The Met Office has a yellow severe weather warning - meaning "be aware" - for ice for most of the UK until 10:00 GMT. The Environment Agency has 16 severe flood warnings - meaning "danger to life" - in south-east and south-west England. After sunshine and light winds on Sunday, next week would be unsettled with further spells of rain but not as stormy as recently.
The Environment Agency said the Thames Barrier had been closed for a RECORD 16th CONSECUTIVE TIME to help lower river levels. "We continue to see the very real and devastating impacts that flooding can have on communities and business.We know the distress that flooding can cause and are doing everything we can to reduce the impacts. Despite an improving forecast the risk of flooding will continue for many communities in southern parts of England over the next few days. "We ask people to remain vigilant and take action where necessary."
Extreme weather gripping the UK as 85mph winds and rain trigger 24 'threat to life' flood warnings. The extreme weather triggered 24 "threat to life" flood warnings and a Met Office alert that the UK was under a "multi-pronged attack."
Flood updates
Photos - Aftermath of the storms

A cruise ship passenger has died after the vessel was hit by a large wave in the English Channel. The wave hit the UK-based cruise ship MS Marco Polo as it headed for its home port in Essex. Water crashed through a window injuring several passengers. An 85-year-old man and a woman in her 70s were airlifted off the ship but the man later died.
A number of the 735 passengers on board suffered minor injuries. The 22,000-tonne vessel had been on a 42-night voyage and was heading back from the Azores when the wave struck. "CMV regrets to advise that earlier today their cruise ship MS Marco Polo, en-route to her home port of Tilbury from the Azores, was hit by a FREAK WAVE during adverse sea conditions in the south western approaches of the English Channel."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

U. S. - Another big snowstorm blankets region. Nor’easter could drop foot of snow. Just two days after a storm dumped more than a foot of snow in some parts of the state, another nor’easter walloped Massachusetts on Saturday and residents prepared to dig out yet again during an unusually harsh winter.
Thousands of residences lost power along the South Shore and on Cape Cod, including more than 5,700 households in Plymouth and Sandwich, as winds were forecast to be gusting over 60 miles per hour into the early morning. Power was later restored to many of the homes. More than 100 flights scheduled to depart from Logan International Airport were canceled Saturday.
Areas along the Interstate 91 corridor that were hit hardest by Thursday’s snow, such as Ludlow and Southwick, were expected to be spared the worst of the storm. Instead, coastal areas that got off easy earlier in the week bore the brunt, with forecasters predicting a foot of snow in a swath of communities south of Boston, 8 to 12 inches east of Interstate 95, and 12 to 18 inches in Plymouth County.
Snow began falling in Boston around 1 p.m., but the storm was expected to drop the most snow between 6 p.m. and midnight before blowing out of the region by dawn Sunday. The snow was wet and heavy, which had forecasters warning that roof collapses were possible and utility companies positioning crews in anticipation of power outages. At a Saturday afternoon news conference the Governor drivers to be cautious and warned that extended power outages were possible. Asked about rumored shortages of road salt, he said the state had enough for now. “MassDOT is all right for about another week. We won’t be all right if we continue having weather events like this.”
Before Thursday’s storm, Boston had used $12 million of its $18.5 million snow removal budget. Many nearby towns and cities blew through their budgeted snow funds in January, while the state owes plow contractors more than $30 million in back pay after exhausting its $43 million budget. At Logan International Airport on Saturday, travelers anxiously scrutinized screens listing flight delays and cancellations. Some tried to snag seats on earlier flights, attempting to escape the city before the worst of the storm hit Saturday night.
Sunday temperatures were expected to creep into the upper 30s, but dip into the teens Sunday night. That could create black ice and slippery conditions on roadways Monday, forecasters said, though the Presidents Day holiday should mean lighter traffic than usual. Another mix of wintry weather could arrive Tuesday, but forecasters on Saturday were unsure whether it would rain or snow.
The back-to-back storms added to what has been an UNUSUALLY SNOWY winter. Through Friday, National Weather Service instruments in Boston had tallied 49.5 inches of snow since Dec. 1, nearly double the average of 27.3 inches over the same period. “If we go on at this pace, we’re going to have a banner year for snowfall. Things could die off, but we’re not out of the woods yet.”
New England is hardly the only part of the country experiencing UNUSUAL WEATHER this winter, with snow falling in the deep South and parts of California experiencing historic drought. “It’s been A STRANGE WEATHER PATTERN THIS SEASON FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY.” The main culprit is the ABNORMALLY SERPENTINE path of the jet stream, a steady flow of air that travels west to east across the United States.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

Arizona - Record-breaking heat possible this weekend in Phoenix area with a high pressure system hovering over the West Coast.

California drought threatening "Cantaloupe Center of the World" - The drought gripping the most productive U.S. agricultural region may claim more than half that land located in Fresno County. California is in bad shape water-wise. Despite some relief in early February, the rainy season is half over and reservoirs are still far below capacity.

Drought-stricken states prepare for landmark year in fires - A three-year drought that has spread across the West has dried out the fuel - trees, shrubs and grasses - that feeds fires.

Drought in Brazil - The drought, Brazil's worst in decades, is a catastrophe, costlier than even the western United States drought, for a total cost of almost $9 billion. Droughts and desertification are also destroying once arable, inhabitable land from North America to Europe to Africa and Asia.

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Wavier jet stream 'may drive weather shift' - New research suggests that the main system that helps determine the weather over Northern Europe and North America may be changing. The study shows that the so-called jet stream has increasingly taken a longer, meandering path. This has resulted in weather remaining the same for more prolonged periods. "We may have to get used to winters where spells of weather go on for weeks - or even months."
The observation could be as a result of the recent warming of the Arctic. Temperatures there have been rising two to three times faster than the rest of the globe. : "This does seem to suggest that weather patterns are changing and people are noticing that the weather in their area is not what it used to be."
The meandering jet stream has accounted for the recent stormy weather over the UK and the bitter winter weather in the US Mid-West remaining longer than it otherwise would have. "We can expect more of the same and we can expect it to happen more frequently." The jet stream, as its name suggests, is a high-speed air current in the atmosphere that brings with it the weather. It is fuelled partly by the temperature differential between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes.
If the differential is large then the jet stream speeds up, and like a river flowing down a steep hill, it ploughs through any obstacles - such as areas of high pressure that might be in its way. If the temperature differential reduces because of a warming Arctic then the jet stream weakens and, again, like a river on a flat bed, it will meander every time it comes across an obstacle.
This results in weather patterns tending to becoming stuck over areas for weeks on end. It also drives cold weather further south and warm weather further north. Examples of the latter are Alaska and parts of Scandinavia, which have had exceptionally warm conditions this winter. In the UK, storm after storm has rolled across the country.
With the UK, the US and Australia experiencing prolonged, extreme weather, the question has been raised as to whether recent patterns are due to simple natural variations or the result of manmade climate change? It is too soon to tell. "The Arctic has been warming rapidly only for the past 15 years. Our data to look at this effect is very short and so it is hard to get a very clear signal. But as we have more data I do think we will start to see the influence of climate change."
The idea that changes in the polar north could influence the weather in middle latitudes - so-called "Santa's revenge" - is a new and lively area of research and somewhat controversial, with arguments for and against. "Fundamentally, the strong warming that might drive this is tied in with the loss of sea-ice cover that we're seeing, because the sea-ice cover acts as this lid that separates the ocean from a colder atmosphere. If we remove that lid, we pump all this heat up into the atmosphere. That is a large part of the signal of warming that we're now seeing, and that could be driving some of these changes."

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Friday, February 14, 2014

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LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.7 EASTER ISLAND REGION

Yesterday, 2/13/14 -
5.2 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.1 KEPULAUAN ARU REGION, INDONESIA
5.4 SCOTIA SEA
5.5 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
+ Thousands of people are evacuating their homes in Indonesia after a volcano erupted in east Java. Mount Kelud spewed ash and debris over a large area, including the city of Surabaya, about 130km (80 miles) away.
Two people died after their houses collapsed under the weight of ash. Some towns were said to be covered by 4cm (1.6 in) of ash. Three major airports in Surabaya, Solo and Yogyakarta were forced to shut down because of low visibility. There are also fears that debris could damage aircraft engines.
At the Yogyakarta airport: "The current conditions are that volcanic ash is now covering the runway, apron and tarmac. We have already measured the thickness of the volcanic ash, which is at 5cm on the runway and tarmac." Officials raised an alert on Thursday around an hour before the volcano erupted, and urged around 200,000 people living in 36 villages in a 10km (6 mile) radius around the volcano to evacuate. However, it is not clear if they have all left their homes.
Many in Indonesia are quite used to volcanic eruptions, and are reluctant to leave their homes and belongings. Officials said two people died after their homes, which appeared to have weak structures, could not withstand the weight of gravel and ash, and caved in. The man and woman in their 60s were killed in two separate homes in the sub-district of Malang on Java. Some of the evacuees tried to visit their houses on Friday morning to gather clothing and valuables, but were forced to turn back by the continuous stream of volcanic ash and rocks from the volcano.
The volcano spewed ash and gravel that flew as far as 200km (124 miles) away. The nearest town from the volcano, Kediri, looks completely grey and white. The thick dust makes it dangerous for pedestrians and vehicles to be on the road, and authorities say residents are volunteering to sweep the streets.
Mount Kelud - which had been rumbling for several weeks - erupted at about 21:50 local time (16:50 GMT) on Thursday. However, the head of Indonesia's Volcano and Geology Agency said the eruption was gradually subsiding. Experts say the volcano tends to quieten down after a large eruption, and more big eruptions are unlikely. The volcano last erupted in 1990, killing dozens of people.
UPDATE - Two people have been crushed to death on the Indonesian island of Jakarta after a volcanic eruption blanketed rooftops with rocks and ash, causing homes to cave in. Thousands of Indonesians have been evacuated and three international airports have been closed after the volcano erupted, hurling red-hot ash and rocks.
Flights from Australia to Bali, Jakarta and Phuket have been cancelled. Qantas has delayed until Saturday its services to and from Sydney and Jakarta, affecting flights which were both due to depart on Friday. The ash cloud has also altered flight paths from Australia to Singapore. Meanwhile, Virgin Australia has cancelled Friday flights to and from Phuket, Denpasar in Bali and the Australian territories of Christmas and Cocos islands.
The mountain in East Java province erupted late on Thursday, about 90 minutes after authorities raised its status to the highest level. About 200,000 people living in 36 villages within 10 kilometres of the crater have been urged to evacuate. "It is spewing lava right now while gravel rain has fallen in some areas. We worry that the gravel rain can endanger people who are evacuating." A series of huge blasts unleashed stones and gravel, causing panic among villagers who immediately fled to safer areas.
In 1990, Kelud kicked out searing fumes and lava that killed more than 30 people and injured hundreds. In 1919, a powerful explosion that reportedly could be heard hundreds of miles away killed at least 5160. Earlier this month, Mount Sinabung in North Sumatra province erupted as authorities were allowing thousands of villagers who had been evacuated to return to its slopes, killing 16 people. Sinabung has been erupting for four months, forcing the evacuation of more than 30,000 people. (video at link)

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES -

+ Caribbean faces threat of biggest tsunami ever recorded - The Caribbean could be at risk from a mega-tsunami that scientists warn could devastate coastlines from Florida to Brazil following a volcanic eruption in the Canary Islands. The monster wave generated by part of a mountain collapsing into the sea would be the biggest ever recorded and would be travelling at speeds of up to 500mph.
The massive wall of water would likely make first landfall on the West Saharan coast of Morocco, where the wave could measure as much as 330ft from trough to crest. The greatest destruction was nevertheless expected in the built-up coastal areas of the Caribbean, Florida and Brazil, according to a new forecast. The tsunami could reach heights of 130ft to 164ft throughout the region and travel several miles inland, leaving a trail of destruction in its wake.
Earlier research had predicted that a future eruption of the Cumbre Vieja volcano in the Canary Islands was likely to cause the western flank of the mountain to slide into the sea. An updated model predicts more accurately the size of the tsunami and the areas it will impact. The model predicts that after the landslide the tsunami would travel a distance of almost 155 miles in just 10 minutes and would reach the Caribbean and Florida in eight or nine hours.
The forecast goes on to predict that a wall of water 164ft high could smash into the coasts of the Caribbean and Florida, while Brazil’s northern coast could be hit by a wave more than 130ft high. "The collapse will occur during some future eruption after days or weeks of precursory deformation and earthquakes. An effective earthquake monitoring system could provide advanced warning of a likely collapse and allow early emergency management organisations a valuable window of time in which to plan and respond."
"Eruptions of Cumbre Vieja occur at intervals of decades to a century or so and there may be a number of eruptions before its collapse. Although the year-to-year probability of a collapse is therefore low, the resulting tsunami would be a major disaster with indirect effects around the world. Cumbre Vieja needs to be monitored closely for any signs of impending volcanic activity and for the deformation that would precede collapse."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the South Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone Fobane is located approximately 649 nm south-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Britain - River Thames breaks records for water flows in January. The amount of water flowing through the Thames this January was the HIGHEST RECORDED FOR JANUARY SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1883. New data from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology shows that the rate of water flow has now exceeded 275 metres per second for more than 50 days. Southern Britain is likely to have THE WETTEST WINTER EVER RECORDED.
Scientists from the Centre measure water flow on all the major British rivers. This winter has been a busy time for their instruments, as they have detected record-breaking rates of flow on a majority of rivers in Southern Britain. At Kingston upon Thames, south-west London, the river has been recorded exceeding 275 cubic metres per second for 52 days. While the river has seen higher flows, especially before 1950, the scientists say THE DURATION OF THIS INTENSE FLOW IN NEARLY TWICE THE PREVIOUS LONGEST TIME ON RECORD.
"Not only has the river Thames been extremely high, its been extremely high for a long time, throughout January and now in February and the total volume of water coming down the Thames has been the highest since 1883." The researchers say that increased flood defences and changes to the flow of the river mean that the number of houses at risk of flooding is much lower than the deadly flood of 1947. The CEH estimate that the overall rainfall picture for southern Britain is heading towards a new high.
"Our rainfall figures suggest it's been the wettest winter since 1910, and here we have some data on river flow records, and many of these are very exceptional and many of these have exceeded the total in January over the whole period of record." The outlook remains grim and could remain that way for weeks if not months. Not only are the rivers at record levels, and likely to rise with the threatened downpours due over the next few days, but because the amount of water in the ground is now so high there is no room left for fresh accumulations.
"The Met Office are forecasting that we've got more heavy storms to come, at the moment, the rivers are already flowing over banks. But we've got the added problem that the groundwater levels are rising, so with the combination of those two we are likely to have severe flooding for the next few months."(map at link)
More chaos to come as experts warn of ANOTHER storm - Tens of thousands of homes are still without power as Britain prepares for yet ANOTHER devastating storm. A month’s worth of rain is expected in just two days as experts warn of more hellish downpours this weekend. A weather system over the Atlantic will send yet another violent storm - the eighth this winter - crashing into Britain from Thursday night.
Winds, which reached 108mph Wednesday night, stopped trains in their tracks, blew roofs off stations and closed major transport links on a day dubbed "Wild Wednesday". The savage storms killed a 70-year-old after he was electrocuted trying to cut down a tree. Some 80,000 households remain without electricity. "We have seen some pretty horrendous conditions. Wales has suffered very strong winds of over 100mph, gusts in excess of 80mph and 90mph quite frequently on land, and that has caused a lot of damage across the network across Wales so that is where we are seeing the majority of those people off supply at the moment."
The weather continues to cause travel chaos, with warnings that passengers should expect more major disruption on the rail network. Virgin Train's sertvices remain suspended after they urged passengers to avoid travel. After a brief respite, Britain faces more chaos as another storm brings heavy rain, strong winds and further risk of flooding today and into the weekend. The West Country is expected to have 70mm (2.75in) of rain - MORE THAN THE REGION WOULD NORMALLY GET IN THE WHOLE OF FEBRUARY.
Snow was expected in northern England and parts of Scotland and today more rain and winds of up to 80mph will arrive from the Southwest. The Ministry of Defence said more than 2,000 military personnel were on "high- readiness" to respond to requests in flood-affected areas. Wednesday residents in parts of the UK were warned not to venture out after the Met Office issued a "red" weather warning for exceptionally strong winds in western Wales and north-west England.
Severe flood warnings remain in place in Berkshire, Surrey and Somerset, where severe flooding has caused hundreds of homes to be evacuated. The River Thames is predicted to rise to its highest level in more than 60 years in some places. Residents in Windsor, Maidenhead and communities in Surrey - where nearly 1,000 people have been evacuated - have been warned to expect severe disruption and risk of flooding.
The Assistant chief of the defence staff, who is co-ordinating the armed forces response, described the weather as an "almost unparalleled natural crisis". Wednesday night, north-west England from Liverpool to Carlisle bore the brunt of the wind. Residents of a block of flats in Old Trafford, Manchester, were trapped when their only staircase collapsed onto parked cars below. Rail travel the length of the country was paralysed. Virgin Trains, which operates the West Coast main line serving London Euston, Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow, halted all services. Swamped, it urged all passengers to "abandon travel" and said those already on trains would be dropped off at the nearest station.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

U.S. - The memorable winter of 2014 continues over the Eastern U.S., where an intensifying Winter Storm Pax has dumped up to a foot and a half of snow. Snowfall rates of 3" per hour have been observed in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and New York Thursday morning.
A band of super-heavy snow set up over northern New Jersey, with some reports of 3 - 4" of snow falling in just 30 minutes. As of 9 am EST, over a foot of snow (12.3") was observed at the Baltimore Airport, 7" at New York City's Central Park, and 11" in Washington D.C.. The 8.8" of snow so far yesterday in Philadelphia makes the winter of 2013 - 2014 the 5th snowiest on record there, and the first time since record keeping began in 1884 that Philadelphia has had four separate six inch or greater snowstorms in a winter.
At least thirteen deaths are being blamed on the storm, including car crashes on icy roads that killed seven people in Texas on Monday and Tuesday. As of 10 am EST on Thursday, approximately 700,000 customers were without power, with 470,000 of these in Georgia and South Carolina.
Freezing rain amounts up to 1/2" were common there, and the ice storm was the worst to affect Georgia since 2000, when a January ice storm knocked out power to approximately 500,000 customers. However, only a few locations in the Southeast recorded 0.75 - 1.0" of ice, and the catastrophic ice storm that was feared did not materialize.
The worst ice conditions from the storm generally rated a "3" on a scale of 1 to 5 of the Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index. The impacts expected from a level 3 ice storm: "Numerous utility interruptions with some damage to main feeder lines and equipment expected. Tree limb damage is excessive. Outages lasting 1 - 5 days."

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Extreme Weather Hits Hard Worldwide - From unprecedented storms and flooding in the UK to severe drought in California and Brazil, 2014 has kicked off with some exceptional and weird weather events.
The UK is experiencing its most exceptional period of rainfall in 248 years, with hundreds of flood alert warnings covering much of the country and hundreds of home left inundated. The prolonged storms have played havoc across the country since December, with more than 130 severe flood risk warnings — meaning a potential threat to life — issued and more than 5,000 homes flooded. This week fourteen severe warnings remain in place, with no let up of the rain in sight.
Across the globe in Brazil, residents in Sao Paulo — South America’s largest city — are facing the opposite problem, as record heat and drought have sparked fears of water shortages. The city is on alert following warnings the system that provides half the its drinking water could run dry in the next 40 days. Like cities across Brazil, Sao Paulo is experiencing its worst drought in 50 years, with last month the hottest January on record. The combination of low precipitation and extreme heat right across the country are not only sparking fears of water shortages but also of crop damage and higher energy prices.
The Western U.S. is facing similar problems, as the state of California is in the grips of what is likely to be the region’s worst drought in 500 years. Low snowpack in the mountains are leaving the state’s creeks, rivers and reservoirs — which provide essential water and hydroelectric power for cities and the agricultural industry — dry, putting food prices at risk. Meanwhile, wildfires continue to plague the region at increased rates.
Brazil and California aren’t the only places experiencing record drought and heat. In Alaska, record high temperatures have triggered a series of extremely large avalanches, with debris piles more than 30-metres thick blocking off towns from highway access. Stifling heat in Australia is also causing havoc, after the country suffered through its hottest January in 13 years — the fourth hottest on record. The dry and hot conditions have left scores of wildfires raging across southeast Australia, and are threatening the country’s agriculture production, as farmers struggle to provide water for their cattle and crops.
A slew of deadly flooding events are also hitting communities around the world. In Bolivia flooding and landslides have so far claimed 42 lives this year, while flooding in northern Indonesia has killed 13 people and driven tens of thousands more from their homes, and in Mozambique 11 people have been killed in flooding. Extreme rainfall is also hitting countries across mainland Europe. Large parts of France and Italy are under flood alert, with hundreds of people being forced out of their homes. The heavy rain and flooding have also claimed three lives in Italy and two in France.
In Romania heavy snowfall has been the problem, blocking roads and railways across the country and leaving schools closed and thousands stranded both in their homes and on the roads. Cold weather has also been playing havoc in Slovenia, where trees, buildings and cars have been encased in thick ice, causing perilous conditions as power lines and tress tumbling to the ground. The government estimates that around 40 percent of the country’s forests have been damaged by the cold snap.

Extreme weather keeps battering Viet Nam - Viet Nam is forecast to continue being battered by extreme weather this year after a RANGE OF UNUSUAL WEATHER PHENOMENA appeared recently. "We'd rarely seen dense frequency of storms and tropical low-pressure systems attacked the country like last year."
As many as 14 storms and five tropical low-pressure systems were reported in Viet Nam in 2013. This was the highest number within five decades. A rarely-seen snowfall blanketed northern mountainous Lao Cai Province's Sa Pa Town in the middle of last December with thick snow of up to 50cm – the THICKEST WITHIN 50 YEARS.
Local residents in northern provinces sometimes suffered daily temperatures of 32 degree Celsius during Tet (Lunar New Year), the summer-season temperature during the winter-spring time. The UNUSUAL hot weather caused disruption to the country's forestry production. Over 13ha of forest were set on fire nationwide only in January, 47 per cent higher than the same period last year.
The head of the Centre of Meteorological and Climate Prediction said that drought, strong storm, torrential rain and sea-level rise would hit the country with higher frequency as well as with strong intensity in the future. The number of hot days was predicted to rise from 30 to 45 each year, especially, in southern region. Icy weather was forecast to hit northern provinces this month, but it would not prolong.
This month, rainfall would reduce by half compared to the same period last year in northern mountainous areas, Tay Nguyen (Central Highlands) and southern region. Rainfall would be about 5-25mm in northern mountainous Son La Province and Ha Noi; 10-20mm in northern Hai Phong City and northern Thanh Hoa Province. In the meantime, rainfall would be only 10mm in central highland and southern region.

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Thursday, February 13, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Where there is love, there is life.**
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LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.4 SCOTIA SEA
5.5 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS

Yesterday, 2/12/14 -
5.7 VANUATU
5.2 LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
5.6 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
6.9 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
5.4 VANUATU

Azerbaijan jolted by a strong earthquake of 5.7 magnitude on the Richter scale. The quake came after over 500 minor ones hitting the country in recent months. The quake took place at the depth of 55 kilometers in the northeast Hajigabul region and lasted for about 30 seconds. It was followed by strong tremors across Azerbaijan and even abroad measured three to five magnitudes on the Richter scale.
The strong quake was RARE in this region of the country. Fortunately, there was no report on the casualties or damages. Aftershocks were also expected, but to date, the situation is calm.The Head of Republican Seismological Service Center of Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences believes a new earthquake - if it happens - will not be as strong as the first one.
"Saatly, Imishly and Hajigabul have experienced weak earthquakes in the past but a 5.7 magnitude on the Richter scale is rare." Earthquakes in this region were unexpected because this zone is not seismically active. For the last month, some 3 to 4 notable earthquakes jolted Azerbaijan including quakes in the Caspian Sea. One of the Sea's quakes took place this year with 5.1 magnitude on the Richter scale.
Some sources predict more strong earthquakes in Azerbaijan this year. But it is impossible to give a short-time forecast including epicenter, time and strength of earthquakes. "Azerbaijan is located in a seismically active zone. It faced more than 6,000 earthquakes last year. About four of the quakes were measured on three to four magnitude on the Richter scale. This year we had four notable quakes."
The quake in Hajigabul lasted about 30 seconds - that is longer than the last strong earthquake in Azerbaijan, on November 2000. It was measured 6.2 magnitude on the Richter scale in the epicenter and lasted 12-13 seconds. The depth of the last quake was also notable as onshore earthquakes in Azerbaijan usually take place in 15-25 kilometers depth. Both earthquakes in Baku in 2000 and in north-west Zaqatala region in 2012 left heavy casualties and damages."Deep earthquakes usually have bigger radius of shake more violently but leave less damages, while superficial quakes are more dangerous."
Earthquakes horrify most people with their aftermath. The last strong quakes in Zaqatala caused serious destructions, while Baku escaped heavy damages. Buildings in Baku could stand quakes of 8-9 magnitude on the Richter scale. "Predictions are useless. Buildings must be built in a way to stand possible earthquakes. So, efforts must be stepped up to make stronger buildings. It is more important to think how to minimize destruction risks, rather than to make groundless forecasts."
Strong earthquakes are rare in Azerbaijan. That is why most people don't know how to act during the tremors which may take lives. There are still no educational courses on earthquake to raise public awareness. "It is necessarily to show and to explain practically how to behave during earthquake in schools and in kindergartens." By taking safety precautions and remaining cold-minded during and after the quakes, one person can help not only himself, but also injured ones.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the South Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone Fobane is located approximately 702 nm southeast of St. Denis, La Reunion.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Ireland - More than a quarter of a million homes and businesses in Ireland have been hit by power cuts as hurricane force winds swept in from the Atlantic. Roofs were blown off buildings and dozens of trees flattened cars up and down the country while a major emergency was declared in the heritage city of Kilkenny after more than two dozen weather-related incidents.
The Kinsale gas platform off the coast of Cork recorded wind gusting to 96 knots or 178km/h while inland hurricane force winds of 177km/h were recorded. Shannon and Cork airports closed runways for some time, rail services in the south were disrupted because of debris on lines and trains out of one of Dublin's main stations, Heuston, were cancelled because of a signalling breakdown. Ireland's meteorology service issued repeated red warnings over the risk from the storm - its highest threat level - as it moved north-east across Ireland.
Cork and Kerry bore the brunt of the storm but the Midlands and Dublin were next in line as the deep but fast moving hurricane force Atlantic depression moved in. Initially 100,000 homes and businesses mainly along the south and south-west coasts suffered black outs, but as the rush hour commute was in full swing electricity bosses warned the number had more than doubled. About 200,000 homes and businesses are expected to spend the night without power.
"The gusts that we have measured, they are not record breaking, but they are widespread and there are large areas of the country involved." The storm is believed to be the worst to hit Ireland since the winter of 1998. Electricity supply chiefs in ESB said they had 2,100 separate faults reported across its network from falling trees, debris and telegraph poles while more than 10,000 communications faults were reported to the main landline phone service. The ESB Networks managing director said the storm was of a different magnitude than anything to hit the country over the last month. "We are dealing with a situation that is as bad if not worse than anything that we have seen in the past decade."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

A historic Southeast U.S. winter storm is pounding Georgia and South Carolina with heavy snow and thick coatings of freezing rain. Car crashes on icy roads from the storm have already killed six people - -four in Texas, and two in Mississippi - -and travel will be extremely dangerous over much of the South on Wednesday.
As of 9 am EST on Wednesday, freezing rain amounts as high as 1/2" had already been observed in Central South Carolina near Columbia. Freezing rain rates as high as 0.1" per hour are expected along a swath from Atlanta, Georgia to the northeast coast of South Carolina. Over 1" of ice may accumulate from freezing rain in areas near Augusta, Georgia.
Strong winds will combine with the freezing rain to blow down trees and power lines, and the Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index rates the potential impacts from areas which receive at least 3/4" of ice accompanied by winds in excess of 15 mph at a 4 on a scale of 1 to 5. At this level, expect "prolonged and widespread utility interruptions with extensive damage to main distribution feeder lines and some high voltage transmission lines/structures. Outages lasting 5 - 10 days."
As of 9:45 am EST, 78,000 customers in Georgia had lost power, and power outages were increasing at a rate of 30,000 customers per hour. About 30,000 customers had lost power in South Carolina.
Atlanta, Georgia, which was shut down by the 2.6" of snow Winter Storm Leon brought to the city on January 28, has been shut down again on Wednesday by Winter Storm Pax. Downtown Atlanta had already received 1/2" of sleet and 1/4" of freezing rain as of 7:30 am EST, making travel dangerous or impossible. Up to 1/2" of ice and 3 - 5" of snow are predicted for the city; Atlanta has only had seven snowstorms in its history greater than 4".
The 7 am EST weather balloon launched from Atlanta iced up too much and was lost at about 630mb (12,500'). They decided not to launch another one, since it would probably suffer the same fate. The sounding showed a classic freezing rain profile: temperatures near freezing at the surface, cooling to 24° at 2600', with a a 3000-foot thick layer of warm air above that, peaking at a temperature of 38°.
That thick layer of cold air above the surface is supercooling the rain as it falls though, allowing the rain to freeze at impact even if the surface temperatures are 33°. One positive aspect: the ice from this storm will melt out rather quickly compared to previous historic Southeast U.S. ice storms. High temperatures are expected to warm into the lower 40s by Thursday and lower 50s by Friday across South Carolina and Northern Georgia.

A winter storm of "historical proportions" is bringing large quantities of snow to the US north-east, after gridlocking traffic and causing power cuts across the South. Storm affecting the US east coast as havoc persists in SouthTraffic in areas of North Carolina ground to a halt and many had to abandon their cars for the night.
A huge winter storm is affecting the densely populated US north-east, after wreaking havoc in the South. Across the typically mild South, more than half a million homes and businesses lack power, and thousands of flights have been cancelled. The mammoth storm has affected people in about 22 states from Texas to Maine and caused at least 12 deaths.
The most crowded swathe of the US - between Washington DC and Boston - is braced for up to 8in (20cm) of snow. A band stretching from North-eastern Pennsylvania through New York State's Hudson Valley and into New England could see 10-20in of snow on Thursday, the National Weather Service warned. Airlines grounded more than 3,300 flights on Wednesday and have already cancelled at least 3,700 flights for Thursday, including more than half of those between New York and Washington.
The storm, described by the National Weather Service as an event of "historical proportions", leaves in its southern wake a wreckage of snapped tree limbs and power lines coated in as much as an inch of ice, motorways turned to car parks, road accidents, and residents shivering in darkened homes. Forecasters said it was one of the worst storms to strike Atlanta, the largest city in the South, since 1973.
President Barack Obama declared a disaster in the state of South Carolina and all northern counties in Georgia. On Wednesday evening, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) said it was moving supplies, including generators, meals, water, blankets and cots to an emergency centre in Atlanta.
At least 12 deaths have already been blamed on the storm, including three people killed when an ambulance slid off an icy Texas road and caught fire and a man in Georgia who slipped and fell on a patch of ice. Thousands of vehicles have been backed up on snow-covered motorways around Raleigh, North Carolina, with some people abandoning their vehicles. A resident of Raleigh left her office shortly after mid-day, but after two hours had only driven a few miles. She eventually abandoned her vehicle and continued on foot, arriving home four hours later. "My face is all frozen, my glasses are all frozen, my hair is all frozen. I know how to drive in the snow. But this storm came on suddenly and everyone was leaving work at the same time. I don't think anybody did anything wrong; the weather just hit quickly." (maps & photos at link)
Pictures

Video - How the polar vortex and U.S. storms are linked.

Great Lakes Ice Cover Is the LARGEST WE'VE SEEN. One effect of the persistently cold winter of 2013-2014 is showing up on the world's largest group of freshwater lakes. According to an analysis by NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, ice covered 78.7 percent of the Great Lakes on February 6. Not since early 1996 has ice been so widespread on the Great Lakes.
This is an abrupt turn around from the past four winters, during which the peak ice coverage remained around 40 percent or less. The 40-year average is just over 51 percent. Dating to 1973, the two years with the largest ice coverage were 1979 (94.7 percent peak) and 1994 (90.7 percent).
When looking at individual lakes, just over 92 percent of Lake Superior, just under 88 percent of Lake Huron, almost 95 percent of Lake Erie, and around 53 percent of Lake Michigan is ice covered. Much deeper Lake Ontario is only about 29 percent of ice covered. As a result, caves near the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore are now open to foot traffic, thanks to sufficiently thick ice on Lake Superior.
Will the cold persist to allow the ice to continue to spread? Through most of the upcoming week, temperatures will remain generally much colder than average over the Midwest and Northeast. Beyond that, there are some preliminary indications the cold may finally ease up the following week, but that outlook remains too uncertain at this time. (photos and chart at link)

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