Monday, June 30, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**I have learned to use the word impossible with the greatest caution.**
Wernher von Braun


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.7 NORTH OF ASCENSION ISLAND

Yesterday, 6/29/14 -
5.1 CAUCASUS REGION, RUSSIA
5.3 TONGA
6.8 TONGA
6.5 TONGA
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.9 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.6 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
6.9 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA 2
6.2 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.3 ARIZONA

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the Eastern Pacific Ocean -
- Tropical storm Douglas is located about 490 mi (790 km) SSW of the southern tip of Baja California.

91L Growing More Organized - Will Bring Heavy Rains to Florida and the Bahamas. An area of disturbed weather over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, about 230 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida (Invest 91L) has grown more organized since Saturday, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression early this week.
Satellite loops on Sunday morning showed 91L with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but the system had a pronounced spin, and the heavy thunderstorms were organizing into spiral bands. Long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida showed two of these bands about 75 - 150 miles east of the Central Florida coast.
Sea surface temperatures in this region were about 1°C above average, 27 - 28°C - plenty of heat energy for a developing tropical cyclone. Wind shear was light, 5 - 10 knots, but was enough to keep any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the north side of 91L.
Water vapor satellite loops showed some modest patches of dry air to the north of 91L, and this dry air was retarding development on Sunday morning. The 12Z Sunday run of the SHIPS model showed shear rising to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, beginning on Monday, and remaining moderate until the end of the week. There is a significant area of dry air to the north of 91L over North Carolina that may work its way south and get wrapped into its circulation on Monday and Tuesday, but this dry air should diminish on Wednesday.
With the disturbance parked over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, organization into a tropical depression is a good possibility. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 40% and 70%, respectively. Steering currents are weak off of the Southeast U.S. coast.
The models all predict a slow southward drift on Sunday, followed by a southwesterly motion on Monday, which would bring the storm very close to the coast of Florida. The 06Z Sunday run of the GFS model has 91L making landfall over Florida on Tuesday, while the 00Z UKMET and European models stall the storm offshore, then accelerate it to the northeast later in the week, caught by a trough of low pressure to the north.
Regardless of the exact track of 91L, the coast of Central Florida and the Northwest Bahamas are likely to receive heavy rains of at least 2 - 4" on Monday and Tuesday from 91L. If 91L develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm, widespread rainfall amounts of 4 - 8" will likely fall in coastal Central Florida and the Northwest Bahamas.
Heavy rains are a potential threat for the coasts of Northern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late in the week, but there is high uncertainty in this possibility.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Tennesee - Once the rain stopped Sunday, June 29, the National Weather Service at Memphis had recorded seven inches of rain in a 30-hour period. That’s about three and a half inches more rain than Memphis gets on average in the month of June. And as the clouds gave way to sunshine Sunday afternoon, the creeks and tributaries kept their high water levels.
From 10 a.m. Saturday to 10 a.m. Sunday, Nonconnah Creek at Winchester Road went from 8 feet to 25.13 feet. Flood stage for that section of the creek is 23 feet. Some cars were left on Winchester at Tchulahoma and Germantown Road near the Wolf River. Memphis firefighters evacuated seven people from the Wheel Estate Mobile Home Park in Whitehaven when rising waters got inside their trailers.

Extreme weather causing floods across U. S. - Minnesota, Tennessee hit hard. (video)

Rain hits south China, heat scorches north - Heavy rain swept south China and will continue for the next few days, while heat waves scorched the northern regions, the National Meteorological Center said Saturday.
Yunnan, Sichuan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang provinces and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in southern China have experienced heavy downpour since June 17. Two people were killed in rainstorms in Yunnan on Saturday, with houses being submerged and bridges collapsed. Heavy rain also triggered landslides and flash floods in some areas. Rain will continue in Yunnan and Jiangxi, according to the weather observatory.
Meanwhile, a heat wave has scorched northern China. Temperatures climbed above 36 degrees Celsius in Beijing and some parts of neighboring Hebei Province. Beijing issued yellow warning for high temperature for Saturday and Sunday. China has a four-color-coded warning system for severe weather, with red being the most serious, followed by orange, yellow and blue.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

Crews making progress against Arizona wildfire - Crews battling a wildfire in Arizona's eastern mountains are making headway with successful burnout operations, even as the blaze blackens more territory.

*****
Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook - with breaking news during the day.

Sunday, June 29, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**That which we persist in doing becomes easier,
not that the task itself has become easier,
but that our ability to perform it has improved.**
Ralph Waldo Emerson


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.2 ARIZONA


Yesterday, 6/28/14 -
None 5.0 or larger.
[Unusually low number of quakes lately - sometimes this signals that a moderately large one is on the horizon.]

6/27/14 -
5.0 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU

A 5.2 magnitude earthquake hit southeastern Arizona just before 10 p.m. Saturday. The U.S. Geological Survey reports the quake's epicenter as 31 miles northwest of Leesburg, N.M., just west of the Arizona-New Mexico border.
"Arizona has experienced earthquakes before. There was a 5.6 magnitude quake near the Utah border in 1959 and a 5.1 magnitude quake near Flagstaff in 2005." A 4.2 magnitude earthquake hit Utah, just south of Mt. Pleasant at 7 p.m. Saturday. The two incidents were unrelated.

Oklahoma nearly doubles earthquake count of California - Oklahoma has had nearly double the number of earthquakes as California, local news reported after five earthquakes rattled residents on Thursday morning.

TSUNAMI -

Typhoon and earthquake connection under study - A report considered the seemingly apparent connection of large earthquakes and typhoon activity on Guam.
The strongest recorded earthquake struck in August 1993. Although no deaths were reported, 48 people were injured and several hotels suffered extensive damage. The southern part of the island experienced numerous landslides and rockslides, and more than $112 million in structural and property damage was sustained to roads, homes, buildings and cars. The earthquake was closely associated with Typhoon Steve.
Perhaps, the authors suggest, the winds generated from typhoons, along with appropriate high stresses in earthquake regions, can trigger an earthquake. Or, pressure changes from the extreme low pressures associated with typhoons can hypothetically cause the land to rise under a reduced load and result in an earthquake.
The model for this seems to work for an earthquake that occurs under land, but for an earthquake under the ocean, there may be another mechanism involved. In the case of the August 1993 quake, the eye of Typhoon Steve, an area of relative calm, passed 80 km north of the island, with winds pushing Guam and the Philippine plate to the northwest. This movement, the study asserts, may have reduced the friction between the Pacific and Philippine plates which resulted in the strong earthquake.
Furthermore, in a look at the history of earthquakes and typhoons on Guam, they observed that far more earthquakes occur within one day of the arrival of typhoons, than any other day in the 10 days before or 10 days after a typhoon has passed Guam at its nearest approach to the island.
Based on historic accounts, they determined that Guam has had only three tsunamis that were large enough to cause damage — in 1849, 1892 and, most recently, in 1993. Another two to six events may have been recorded, but are not verifiable as true tsunamis. Waves originating from further away include those produced during the 1952 Kamatchka, Russia, and the 1960 Chile earthquakes.
In 1819 - “An earthquake made itself felt, on May 7 at 1:30 pm. With surprise and fright together, we saw the earth itself undulating form north to south for a period of perhaps thirty seconds. The residence cracked in every part, tiles came hurtling down and one would have thought that the entire structure was about to collapse around our heads. All inhabitants fled, some into the streets, others into gardens. No further disaster befell us all, however. Passed on from the land to the sea, the upheaval was felt aboard in the guise of violent shakes.”
In late 1837 a series of strong earthquakes coincided with a strong storm causing major flooding, landslides and damage. Four of the Caroline Islands were submerged, forcing residents to migrate to Guam and eventually settle in Saipan.
Twelve years later, another devastating tremor struck the island. The earthquake and tsunami of 1849 - “On 25 January last, at 2:49 in the afternoon, there was a great temblor, or earthquake, on this island that lasted one and a half minutes…The shocks continued all afternoon at very short intervals of approximately four, six and eight minutes. At eleven o’clock that night, they ceased until 2:30 in the morning, then continued on the following days…In addition to the repeated shocks, we felt something like a subterranean boiling, and we thought we were atop a volcano that would send us flying though space when it exploded. After nine days, the continual boiling-like rumbling stopped, but the tremors continued…A pilot and several seamen who were on the beach reported and swore they had seen two flashes of fire leap from the surf as it crashed on the reef off this port. The flashes were preceded by two sharp cannon-like reports.
The earth opened in several places. Large fissures appeared in the center of the city; fourteen walls opened, gushing water, sand and fish… That afternoon, in my presence, the wells were sounded with a rod and found to have a depth of from one to six varas (one varas is 33 inches). On the following day I had them filled to obliterate the horrible sight, also because four of them were beneath houses, causing some to tumble, others to tilt. Many boulders have tumbled along the shore and from the interior hillsides. The shaking was so severe that bottles and other small receptacles on floors and shelves fell. The fissures were even more frightening because of the release of fumes.
“The sole tragedy involving loss of life was the death of a woman, who was at her ranch near the beach and was swept away by one of three tidal waves. The two-year old niece who was with her received bruises on her face when the sea carried her forty yards before depositing her among the rocks.”
The vertical run-up of the tsunami was about 11.5 feet (3.5 meters). So far-reaching were the effects that, the captain of a whaling frigate informed the Governor that he felt the quake a thousand miles east of Guam. In the Caroline Islands, it was reported that some of the atolls were actually submerged for several hours by the tsunami caused by the earthquake. Several survivors from the islands of Satawal and Lamotrek managed to escape, migrating to Saipan in the northern Marianas some two months later.
In May 1892 a tsunami in Hagåtña was recorded from an earthquake that struck Guam, although no measurements of its height or damage were available. A drop in water level was reported and damage occurred in the old San Antonio district (near the current Chamorro Village).

Massive Ocean Whirlpools Are Affecting the Weather - Huge ocean whirlpools, some hundreds of miles across, are affecting Earth's climate in ways that scientists can't yet predict. Called mesoscale eddies, the 60- to 300-mile (100-500 kilometer) wide whirlpools move as much water as ocean currents, say researchers who reviewed satellite data from 1992 to 2010.
The eddies form as ocean currents are disrupted by ocean features like islands. As they move west due to the Earth's rotation, they can drive 30 tons of water every second to the east coast of continents. The eddies may grow and become more frequent as the world warms.
"The amount of water they can carry westward was a huge surpris." Eddy-driven currents are likely making extreme weather across Japan worse. The Kuroshio current's warm waters cause extreme weather, and the eddies hold more warm water.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the Eastern Pacific Ocean -
- Tropical depression 4-E is moving quickly west-northwestward away from Mexico.

A area of disturbed weather over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream current off the Southeast U.S. coast has been designated Invest 91L. Satellite loops on Saturday morning showed 91L with only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that was poorly organized. There was no hint of a surface circulation trying to form.
Long-range radar howed a few modest areas of rainfall over the ocean about 50 - 150 miles east of the Central Florida coast. Sea surface temperatures in this region were about 1°C above average, 27 - 28°C -- plenty of heat energy for a developing tropical cyclone.
Wind shear was moderate, 10 - 15 knots. The shear was due to strong upper-level winds out of the north, which were keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the north side of 91L. Water vapor satellite loops showed that the atmosphere was moderately moist off the Southeast U.S. coast, and dry air should not be a significant impediment to development. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 91L on Sunday afternoon.
Forecast for 91L - With the disturbance parked over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, organization into a tropical depression is a good possibility. NHC gave 91L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 50%, respectively.
Steering currents are weak off of the Southeast U.S. coast, and the uncertainty in the track of 91L is higher than usual. The 00Z Saturday run of the UKMET and European models predicted a slow motion to the northeast, with the European model showing a POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY. The 00Z and 06Z Saturday runs of the GFS model PREDICT THE OPPOSITE MOTION, a slow track southwestwards with a LANDFALL IN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.
None of these models showed 91L reaching tropical storm strength. The UKMET and European model have been pretty consistent with their recent runs, so that may favor the more northeasterly motion for 91L over the next five days.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Heavy Rains Flood U. S. Season With Extreme Weather - The threat of flooding, hail and tornadoes is expected in regions throughout the nation and June has proven to be a month of weather extremes.

Minnesota - More rain, more wind threaten flood-weary residents in the Twin Citie. Braced for more storms overnight and into Sunday. The National Weather Service said the Twin Cities and south-central Minnesota could get 1 inch to 2 inches of rain by the end of Sunday, with heavier rain and chances of hail and tornadoes from Mankato to Albert Lea.
By Saturday afternoon, heavy rains and strong winds had already moved into the metro. In flooded Prior Lake, the Mayor said he was “absolutely relieved” that Saturday afternoon rains raised the water levels by only a quarter-inch. But “they are still forecasting another one to two inches tonight and that would create additional problems for us. The waters are rising” and 40 homes are already flooded. More rain could be “catastrophic.”
This is THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD for the Twin Cities, with more than 25 inches of precipitation since Jan. 1 — nearly 12 inches above normal. It’s the second wettest June on record.
But while the rain may feel repetitive, experts said that it shouldn’t send rivers and creeks rising again, but rather, would slow receding floodwaters. They were concerned, however, that the weekend storms could pack powerful winds. With the ground already saturated, trees can easily be uprooted by high wind. Similar conditions brought down dozens of trees across the metro two weeks ago.
Flooding continues throughout the state.

The weather service is keeping a close eye on northwestern Iowa. The area could be at risk for flooding after 3 to 5 inches of rain fell Thursday. Residents throughout much of the waterlogged Dakotas are on alert for flash flooding as a storm system sweeps in from the Rockies.
The National Weather Service issued a flash flood watch through Friday night for western and north central South Dakota, and for western and central North Dakota. Forecasters said the storm system moving from west to east could drop as much as 6 inches of rain. “Everyone is going to have to keep an eye on the weather."
Many areas in the Dakotas already have saturated soils from recent heavy rains that led to earlier flooding. The problem has been most acute in southeastern South Dakota, where floodwaters in recent weeks have damaged hundreds of homes.
In Canton, a homeowner e said that water inundated her basement last week for the first time in the 18 years she has lived there. The family lost their furnace, washer, dryer, water heater, freezer, snowmobile, lawn mower, power tools and photographs to water damage, and doesn’t have insurance to cover the loss. “I never had such a disaster in my life."

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

Arizona wildfire doesn't grow but evacuations remain. Fire officials say a fire that's charred nearly 8 square miles in eastern Arizona's White Mountains has held steady, though the human-caused blaze has not been brought under control at all.

Drought tightens grip on Nevadans' daily lives - Extended drought has dried forests in western Nevada and the Sierra, leading to mounting concern that destructive wildfires are likely to erupt at any time.

The continuing drought in Texas has taken on historic proportions because it has had an UNUSUALLY BROAD EFFECT on the state.
Recent rains improve drought, lake levels in Texas - Pentiful rainfall this past week improved conditions across Texas, although 69 percent of the state remained in some drought stage.

Drought, wildfires may strain Southern California's power grid this summer. State energy officials say wildfires, the drought and high temperatures could strain Southern California's power supply thissummer. The Governor proclaimed a drought state of emergency for California on Jan. 17.

*****
Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook - with breaking news during the day.

Friday, June 27, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Change your thoughts and you change your world.**
Norman Vincent Peale

Not much to report today.


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

Yesterday, 6/26/14 -
5.4 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.0 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SUMBAWA REGION, INDONESIA

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

No current tropical storms.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Rain Storms Pummel U. S. Upper Midwest, Drowning Resources - Heavy rains over the past couple of weeks have rivers rising all across the Upper Midwest, flooding homes, swamping fields and washing out roads.
Heavy rains over the past couple of weeks have rivers rising all across the Upper Midwest, flooding homes, swamping fields and washing out roads.
In the small town of Rock Valley, Iowa, offficials in this town of 3,300 say it will take weeks to clean up and months to repair and rebuild damaged homes, businesses and infrastructure. And they're not alone. Statewide, Iowa officials estimate flood damages topping $15 million.
About an hour south of Rock Valley in Sioux City, Iowa, the county's Emergency Services Director says it's been difficult to recover. "We were already at saturation point, and we were receiving heavy rain. We need a little time to dry out here, and we need these storms, instead of parking over us, to keep moving."
One storm last week dumped 6 inches of rain on Sioux City in just three hours. "What we saw last week were weather systems that just literally got here and continued to develop and redevelop on top of themselves." These storm systems have been dumping massive amounts of rain on other parts of Iowa, Nebraska, the Dakotas and Minnesota, where the governor has declared a state of emergency in 35 counties. "It's very hard to see the pain and suffering people are going through - homeowners in Henderson whose houses of 26 years were destroyed by a mudslide, farmers whose entire crop has been destroyed by the flooding or the hail."
Many northern farmers are now in a bind because when their fields finally dry out, it might be too late in the growing season to replant their crops. One agronomist estimates crop yields could drop 20 to 30 percent in Minnesota alone because of weather-related losses, and there will likely be crop losses in other states, too.
In Delano, about 30 miles west of Minneapolis, where the raging Crow River flooded downtown businesses and closed a main bridge through town. The flooding is draining the city's bank accounts."For a community our size, we're expending a tremendous amount of resources, probably upwards of 10 percent of our annual budget just simply in the last five days trying to deal with holding back these waters."
Planners in Midwestern communities are bracing for these kinds of severe storms to become the new normal. This is the third major flood in Delano in five years. Forecasters predict this rainy weather pattern will likely continue into July across much of the Upper Midwest.

Village near Belgrade "hit by tornado" - Extreme weather is continuing in Serbia this summer, with a new round of storms hitting many areas of the country late on Wednesday. A tornado-like storm was reported in a village near the town of Lazarevac.
Strong winds in Šopići ripped off roofs from homes, caused significant damage to a local church, and turned over vehicles, including a tank truck. Heavy rain and high winds affected several other towns, including Topola and Aranđelovac in central Serbia, Šabac, Bogatić, and Koceljeva in the west, and Belgrade.
Some areas of Lazarevac - a municipality of Belgrade southwest of the central parts of the city - was left without electricity as wind damaged transmission lines. In Priboj, southwestern Serbia, winds and rain brought down trees and cause flash flooding. Farmers in some areas have also reported damage to their crops.

*****
Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook - with breaking news during the day.

Thursday, June 26, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**A lie told often enough becomes truth.**
Vladimir Lenin


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SUMBAWA REGION, INDONESIA

Yesterday, 6/25/14 -
5.4 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.4 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDS REGION
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.0 VANUATU
5.0 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

No current tropical storms.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Canada - Heavy rain washes out roads, causes flooding in southern Quebec. Several spots around Quebec are coping with the aftermath of heavy rainfall on Wednesday with one town declaring a local emergency.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

Drought brings disaster declaration for all of Utah - Every county in Utah will be covered by a disaster declaration because of the ongoing drought.

Drought Nudges Nevada Wildlife Toward Urban Areas - Three years of drought in Nevada is drying up fisheries in the valleys and pushing some animals to urban areas looking for food and water.

The heat is on in Greenland, where the high temperature on Tuesday hit an UNUSUALLY WARM 67°F at Kangerlussuaq (Sønder Strømfjord) in southwestern Greenland.
It's been a hot June at Kangerlussuaq, where the temperature peaked at 73°F on June 15. That's not far below the all-time hottest temperature ever recorded in Greenland of 78.6°F, set just last year on July 30 at nearby Maniitsoq Mittarfia. The unusual warmth this year melted nearly 40% of the Greenland Ice Sheet in mid-June - far above the usual 15% figure.
The warm June temperatures could be setting the stage for a big Greenland melt season this summer, and scientists with the Dark Snow Project are on the ice, 48 miles east Kangerlussuaq, conducting a two-month field experiment on the causes and implications of Greenland ice melt. The results, soon to be published, showed a pronounced spike in black carbon at the critical layer, and indicated the strong need for more research.
The "burning question": How much does wildfire and industrial soot darken the ice, increasing melt? Was the record melt and record darkness of the ice sheet in 2012 a harbinger of the future? A darker ice sheet absorbs more solar energy, in a vicious cycle that raises temperatures, melts more ice, and further darkens the ice sheet.
The amount of melting that was caused by soot from forest fires is important to know, since global warming is likely to increase the amount of forest fires in coming decades. However, the amount of forest fire soot landing on the Greenland Ice Sheet is almost completely unknown.
Greenland's ice sheet holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 7.36 meters (24.15 feet) were it all to melt, and civilization would be hard-pressed to deal with 10 - 13 feet of sea level rise from West Antarctica, let alone another 20+ feet from Greenland. "If we've committed to 3.3 meters (10.8') from West Antarctica, we haven't committed to losing Greenland, we haven't committed to losing most of East Antarctica. Those are still out there for us."
Unfortunately, the Greenland Ice Sheet is much more vulnerable to melting than previously thought, found a May 2014 study. Deeply incised submarine glacial valleys beneath the Greenland ice sheet. The researchers found that widespread ice-covered valleys extend much deeper below sea level and farther inland than previously thought, and would likely melt significantly from steadily warming waters lapping at Greenland's shores.
The iice core study found that black carbon from forest fires helped caused a RARE, near-ice-sheet-wide surface melt event that melted 97% of Greenland's surface on July 11 - 12 2012, and a similar event in 1889. Another factor contributing to a darker Greenland Ice Sheet and more melting may be additional wind-blown dust landing on the ice. "Our hypothesis is that now that seasonal snow cover in the Arctic is retreating earlier than before, and bare soil is available earlier in the Spring for dust transport."

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' -

Coming Collapse - Oceans at Risk From Overfishing and Pollution. The Global Ocean Commission is out with a scathing report on the state of our oceans. To put it bluntly, our oceans are on the brink of collapse.

SPACE WEATHER -

Trio of Monster Black Holes Rumble Spacetime - For the first time, three supermassive black holes have been discovered in a tight orbital dance inside the center of a galaxy 4 billion light-years away. The discovery was made by radio telescopes located in Europe, Asia and South Africa, and astronomers believe that it’s extreme gravitational environments such as these that rumble spacetime, generating gravitational waves that are theorized to propagate throughout the cosmos.
“What remains extraordinary to me is that these black holes, which are at the very extreme of Einstein’s Theory of General Relativity, are orbiting one another at 300 times the speed of sound on Earth. Not only that, but using the combined signals from radio telescopes on four continents we are able to observe this exotic system one third of the way across the Universe.”
Two of the black holes are orbiting very close to one another, creating corkscrew-like jets of emissions from one of the black holes as they interact. The third black hole has a wider orbit and emits straight jets from its poles that aren’t impacted significantly by the other pair of black holes.
Supermassive black holes are massive objects, ‘weighing-in’ at between 1 million to 10 billion times the mass of our sun. The majority of galaxies are known to contain these objects at their cores and are thought to have a key impact on galactic evolution and star formation. When galaxies merge, it is thought that the central black holes spiral in toward one another, eventually merging themselves.
“Our research shows that close-pair black holes may be much more common than previously thought." Although gravitational waves have been in the news a lot lately, astrophysicists predict that extreme environments such as these are powerful gravitational wave sources, as predicted by Einstein’s general relativity. So as sensitive detectors — such as the Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory — attempt to track down these minute spacetime ripples, it is paramount that radio observations of orbiting supermassive black holes are carried out.

*****
Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook - with breaking news during the day.

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**There’s nothing so absurd that if you repeat it often enough,
people will believe it.**
William James


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.2 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

Yesterday, 6/26/14 -
5.5 NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN
5.1 EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.4 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.1 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
5.4 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.2 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
6.6 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.6 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

No current tropical storms.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Minnesota - As flood waters around the state keep rising, the Governor has extended an emergency declaration for 35 counties for another 30 days, saying he expects a new $3 million disaster assistance account will be exhausted.
The governor, who's been touring flooded areas of the state, said it may take several weeks to assess the flood damage caused by recent heavy rains. Local officials will have to wait until the waters recede to compile the damage estimates. "There's a lot of human suffering and it's very painful. Yet, people are very resilient and very strong and to see the help that people give their neighbors and friends and even complete strangers is very extraordinary."
It may be necessary to call a special legislative session to approve more disaster aid, and the state will probably qualify for federal disaster assistance. State public safety officials say more than half of all Minnesota counties felt the damage of recent storms and flooding. Even though the rain has stopped for now, water levels on lakes and rivers are still rising.
The latest heavy rainfall is similar to the major floods in 1997. "It's not unprecedented, but it certainly is significant that we have this many counties that are being impacted by a weather system." The Mississippi River is expected to reach its highest level in St. Paul and downstream in Hastings later this week.
State of emergency in St. Paul - The mayor has declared a state of emergency as the city braces for the worst flooding it's seen since 2001. The Mississippi River is predicted to rise another two feet before cresting in St. Paul on Thursday. At the peak, waters will reach a projected six-and-a-half feet above flood stage. Fourteen cities and counties have made similar declarations.
The city of Waterville in Le Sueur County is experiencing some lake flooding that could endanger a water treatment facility. The city sits between Lake Tetonka and Lake Sakatah. Volunteers have filled and placed about 20,000 sandbags around buildings to protect them from encroaching water. Several homes are surrounded by water from nearby lakes, and a few will be completely destroyed. The city has closed four streets and parts of three others due to the flooding.
Evacuated residents of a flooded town in southeastern Minnesota have learned it could be as much as two weeks before they can return to their homes. Electrical and phone service are out in Blakeley, a town of about 500 that was evacuated last week because of the rising Minnesota River. Roads and highways around the town have been washed out, damaged by mudslides and others are blocked by fallen trees. Some of the roads will have to be rebuilt.
About 75 people have been displaced by the flooding. Mudslides and flood waters have blocked and damaged roads, making it difficult for power crews to get in to start making repairs. An Xcel Energy spokesman says work crews still can't get into Blakeley. Thirty-three customers there are without power.
When the National Guard arrived in the city of Rainy Lake Thursday night, Rainy Lake was pushing into shoreline lawns already at flood stage and predicted to rise another 16 inches. For a while the water was rising faster than the sandbag dikes. Now the lake is only expected to rise another five inches, and Guard-built dikes are plenty tall to handle such levels.
All told, homes on Rainy Lake and Rainy River are surrounded by something over 300,000 sandbags. In case of another thunderstorm, two sandbag filling machines are still set up, and Koochiching County still has 12,000 sandbags in reserve.
More rain appears likely in the seven-day forecast. Forecast models continue to show the likelihood of more rain later this week. The best chance for heavy rain, along with the possibility of severe weather, could be Friday night and Saturday, mainly for the southern half of Minnesota. A long-range seven-day forecast paints a bullseye of possible precipitation right over Minnesota. If this model works out, most of the state would receive well over two inches of rain during the next week. (photos)

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

India - Rain pain: Maharashtra stares at water scarcity threat. A “scarcity threat” looms large over Maharashtra, with below-average rainfall and rapidly-depleting water levels in reservoirs.
According to the India Meteorological Department’s latest report, Maharashtra has received 31.7 mm rainfall — 52 per cent below the long period average against the normal level of 66.2 mm during the period. There is only 20 per cent water availability in 100 major reservoirs of the state. Of the 35 districts, 18 have received scanty rainfall.
“Sowing during the kharif season has completely stopped for want of rainfall. Annually, sowing is done on 12 million hectares, excluding sugar cane. Of 12 million hectares, soybean and cotton is sowed on four million hectares each on the situation while jowar and other kharif crops are sown on the balance area. The monsoon is expected to revive within a week... However, if it still prolongs, then there will be an adverse impact on the agricultural production in the state.”
Water in the reservoirs had been receding fast and the available water was now reserved only for drinking and could not be used for farming. “Already, tehsildars have been empowered to deploy tankers in their jurisdiction while the government has already announced relief until June 30 in the payment of power bills charged for lift irrigation. The sub-committee will review the prevailing situation across the state that has arisen due to below-average rainfall and take necessary steps to provide much-needed relief to farmers and members of the general public."
According to government data, water in the reservoirs would be available for a month. If the monsoon does not revive, most cities and towns, including Mumbai, Pune, Nagpur, Nashik and Aurangabad, would face acute water scarcity. A government official said that only 20 per cent water was available in major reservoirs while there was zero availability in 20 other projects.
The official recalled that farmers in the state had faced severe drought-like conditions in the beginning of 2013 due to two successive years of low rainfall. Many parts of the state faced untimely rains and hailstorms during January and April this year, which caused huge damages to farm produce and horticulture crops.

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' -

Widespread negative impacts of pesticides 'IMPOSSIBLE TO DENY" - Neonicotinoid pesticides are causing significant damage to a wide range of beneficial species and are a key factor in the decline of bees around the world, say scientists.
Researchers, who have carried out a four-year review of the literature, say the evidence of damage is now "conclusive". The scientists say the threat to nature is the same as that once posed by the notorious chemical DDT. Manufacturers say the pesticides are not harming bees or other species.
Neonicotinoids were introduced in the early 1990s as a replacement for older, more damaging chemicals. They are a systemic insecticide, meaning that they are absorbed into every cell in a plant, making all parts poisonous to pests. But some scientists have been concerned about their impact, almost since the moment they were introduced.
Much of the worry has surrounded their effects on bees. There's been a well documented, global decline in these critical pollinators. Many researchers believe that exposure to neonicotinoids has been an important destabilising factor for the species.
An international scientific taskforce on systemic pesticides have reviewed over 800 peer reviewed papers that have been published in the past 20 years. Their assessment of the global impact says THE THREAT POSED GOES FAR BEYOND BEES. In their report, to be published next month, they argue that neonicotinoids and another chemical called fipronil are POISONING THE EARTH, THE AIR AND THE WATER.
The pesticides accumulate in the soil and leach into water, and pose a significant problem for earthworms, freshwater snails, butterflies and birds. The researchers say that the classic measurements used to assess the toxicity of a pesticide are not effective for these systemic varieties and conceal their true impact. They point to one of the studies in the review carried out in the Netherlands.
It found that higher levels of neonicotinoids in water reduced the levels of aquatic invertebrates, which are the main prey for a whole range of species including wading birds, trout and salmon. "There is so much evidence, going far beyond bees. They accumulate in soils, they are commonly turning up in waterways at levels that EXCEED THE LETHAL DOSE for things that live in streams. It is impossible to deny that these things are having major environmental impacts."
The scientists are very worried about the prophylactic use of neonicotinoids, where seeds are coated in the chemicals and the plant grows up with the ability to destroy pests already built in. "It is a bit like taking antibiotics to avoid getting ill. The more they are used, the stronger the selective pressure you place on pest insects to become resistant to them. Using them as prophylactics is absolute madness in that sense."
The task force argues that with neonicotinoids and fipronil making up around a third of the world market in insecticides, farmers are over-relying on them in the same way as they once became over reliant on chemicals like DDT. "We have forgotten those lessons and we're back to where we were in the 1960s. We are relying almost exclusively on these insecticides, calendar spraying 20 times or more onto a single field, IT'S A COMPLETELY BONKERS WAY."
While neonicotinoids don't accumulate in human or animal tissue in the way that DDT once did, the modern pesticides are more lethal, about 6,000 times as toxic compared to the older spray.
Representatives of manufacturers say that there is nothing new in the task force study. "There is very little credible evidence that these things are causing untoward damage because we would have seen them over 20 years of use," said Bayer, one of the manufacturers of neonicotinoids. "If you look at the tree bumblebee, it is eating the same food as the other bees, and is being exposed to the same pesticide load and weather conditions and yet it is flourishing, whereas some other bees are not. If it were pesticides causing the mass destruction of our fauna, surely you would see effects on all bees?"
The European Crop Protection Association said the task force was being selective in their evidence, pointing to recent studies carried out by industry showing that the declines in bee populations have been overstated. "We respect the scientists who have produced this research, but it appears that they are part of a movement that brings together some academics and NGOs whose only objective is to restrict or ban the use of neonicotinoid technology regardless of what the evidence may show," a spokesperson said.
Europe already has a two-year moratorium in place meaning that neonicotinoids can't be used on flowering crops such as oilseed rape. Last week, President Obama announced the creation of a pollinator health task force to look at the impact of pesticide exposure on bees and other insects.
AND THEY DON'T EVEN WORK! "We have been using these things for 20 years and there's not a single study that shows they increase yield. I'm not personally in favour of an outright ban but I think we should use them much more judiciously - if they don't benefit yield we should stop using them."

SPACE WEATHER -

Astronomers have spotted an UNUSUAL SERIES OF ERUPTIONS FROM THE SUN, thanks to a suite of spacecraft. They've witnessed a fast succession of "puffs" forcing the slow ejection of a massive burst of plasma from the sun's corona taking place over a period of three days.
The outermost layer of the sun is called the corona. This magnetized plasma has a temperature of millions of degrees and extends millions of miles into space. In this case, the spacecraft spotted puffs emanating from the base of the corona and rapidly exploding outward into interplanetary space. The puffs themselves occurred about once every three hours and after about 12 hours, a much larger eruption of material began.
"Looking at the corona in the Extreme UltraViolet light we see the source of the puffs is a series of energetic jets and related flares. The jets are localized, catastrophic releases of energy that spew material out from the sun into space. These rapid changes in the magnetic field cause flares, which release a huge amount of energy in a very short time in the form of super-heated plasma, high-energy radiation and radio bursts. The big, slow structure is reluctant to erupt, and does not begin to smoothly propagate outwards until several jets have occurred."
Because multiple spacecraft witnessed the "puffing" and subsequent eruption, the scientists managed to create a 3D configuration of the eruptions. This allowed them to estimate the forces acting on the slow eruption and even discuss the possible mechanisms for the interaction between the slow and fast phenomena. Currently, the scientists plan to further investigate this event in order to find out whether there are shock waves, formed by the jets, passing through and driving the slow eruption, or whether magnetic reconfiguration is driving the jets, allowing the structure to slowly erupt. The findings could tell scientists a bit more about the sun and the forces that drive it.

*****
Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook - with breaking news during the day.

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Whether you think you can or think you can't,
either way you are right.**
Henry Ford


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.6 NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN
5.1 EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.1 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
5.1 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
6.6 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.1 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.6 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

Yesterday, 6/23/14 -
5.4 EAST OF THE VOLCANO ISLANDS
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.9 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.5 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.4 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.4 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
6.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
6.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
7.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.9 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.1 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.9 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
6.0 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
7.9 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.3 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.1 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.1 VANUATU
5.2 TONGA

Magnitude 7.9 Alaska quake spawns small tsunami - A strong earthquake near Alaska's Aleutian Islands triggered a tsunami warning Monday, but only small waves measuring several inches hit coastal communities.
The National Tsunami Warning Center, which initially issued a warning that significant inundation was possible, kept advisories in place for parts of the sparsely populated islands, saying conditions could be dangerous to people near the water. "There could be strong currents, but still stay away from the beach." The magnitude-7.9 earthquake struck early Monday afternoon, centered about 13 miles southeast of Little Sitkin Island, or about 1,400 miles southwest of Anchorage.
There were no reports of damage. Residents in some communities like Adak, which were first in line for the tsunami, did evacuate. "We're seeing water leave our bay, so we do have everybody up on the Bering Hill area, where our primary evacuation center is at." After the warning was canceled, everyone in town remains on alert. If anything significant were to happen, a siren will sound. "We will expect everyone to go back on the hill ASAP."
About 200 miles west, a tsunami wave of about 7 inches was reported at Amchitka Island. The wave diminished the further it traveled, reaching only a couple of inches at Adak and Shemya. But the earthquake was widely felt in Adak, one of the largest cities in the affected area. Shaking could also be felt in Shemya and other villages along the island chain.
The prolonged shaking from the temblor put it in the top 10 of those felt recently. "Everybody in our building went out, watching the vehicles shake and waiting for it to end." Shemya Island is where the U.S. military operates Eareckson Air Station, which serves mainly as an early warning radar installation. Air Force officials said there was no damage to the air station. Amchitka Island is where the government tested nuclear weapons underground in the 1960s and 70s. The tests included one of the United States' largest nuclear explosions.
Monday's earthquake was initially reported with a magnitude of 7.1, but that was upgraded to 8.0. In the review of data hours after the quake, the magnitude was downgraded to 7.9. There were several strong aftershocks, with magnitudes ranging from 3.5 to 5.9. Nyland said those would be too small to trigger a tsunami.
A tsunami advisory remained in effect late Monday afternoon for coastal areas between Nikolski and Attu, which is near the tip of the Aleutians. A separate advisory stretching from Nikolski to Unimak Pass, which is further east, was canceled. That area includes Unalaska, a community of about 4,000 people and home to Dutch Harbor, one of the nation's largest fishing ports. An advisory means strong currents or dangerous waves are expected, but widespread inundation isn't likely.

Magnitude 7.2 quake strikes off Kermadec Islands, no tsunami alert. The earthquake struck off New Zealand's Kermadec Islands, the most northern group of islands in New Zealand, at a depth of 5 km (3 miles).

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

No current tropical storms.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Minnesota Rivers Rising as Forecast Calls for More Drenching Rain - Rivers are spilling over their banks in many areas.

Australia - Extreme weather forecast for Sydney. The UNUSUAL WEATHER FRONT delivering blizzard conditions to the Alpine Peaks will bring damaging winds to Sydney. The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting damaging winds around 60 to 80 km/h with peak gusts of 90 to 110 km/h for the Metropolitan area on Tuesday.
The Bureau said a vigorous frontal system will cross New South Wales Monday with land gales expected to affect coastal districts from parts of the Hunter, Metropolitan, Illawarra and South Coast, as well as Central Tablelands by Tuesday afternoon. Winds of this strength could fell trees over homes and power lines. "Tomorow is a day where you should try and stay indoors and stay safe."

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

May 2014: Earth's 2nd Consecutive Warmest Month on Record - May 2014 was Earth's WARMEST MAY SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1880, beating the record set in 2010. The planet has now had two BACK-TO-BACK WARMEST MONTHS ON RECORD.

Drought has Sierra, Nevada forests ready to burn - "The drought has really affected the moisture in the trees."

North Korea army mobilised as rivers run dry in worst drought in years - The drought is the worst in North Korea for over a decade, state media reports have said, with some areas experiencing LOWEST RAINFALL LEVELS SINCE 1961.

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Meandering air flows cause extreme weather - Large meanders in the flow of air around the planet are a major cause of prolonged bouts of extreme weather throughout Europe, Asia and North America, say scientists. The so-called planetary waves weave throughout the Northern Hemisphere's lower atmosphere, marking the boundary between cold Arctic air to the north and the warmth of the tropics to the south.
A new study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, says that larger planetary waves can lead to droughts in Europe, central Asia, and the central belt of North America. But their effects are not the same everywhere. On the east coast of Canada and the US, the chances of cold spells increase, while western Asia is more likely to be exposed to prolonged wet spells.
'The impacts of large and slow-moving atmospheric waves are different in different places. In some places amplified waves increase the chance of UNUSUALLY hot conditions, and in others the risk of cold, wet or dry conditions.' The past decade has seen a number of extreme weather events across the Northern Hemisphere. In 2003, western Europe was gripped by a stifling heat wave, claiming an estimated 70,000 lives.
Earlier this year, temperatures plummeted to record lows across a number of US states, affecting up to 190 million people. Some scientists have suggested that these events were caused by large planetary waves, and that such events might become more frequent as the global climate warms.
'Many people will have heard weather forecasters talking about the influence of the jet stream on our weather. These planetary waves are slightly different. They are related to the jet stream but they occur lower down in the atmosphere, and are associated with low and high-pressure weather systems.' The waves are able to suck colder air from the north, or tropical air from the south, into UNUSUAL territory, triggering changes in weather patterns affecting large swathes of the Northern Hemisphere.
They have not attempted to predict changes into the future. As the world warms up, the effects of planetary waves may end up being overwhelmed by the rising temperatures.

*****
Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook - with breaking news during the day.

Monday, June 23, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Skill and confidence are an unconquered army.**
George Herbert


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
None 5.0 or larger.

Yesterday, 6/22/14 -
5.0 CENTRAL PERU
5.1 NORTH OF HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.1 JAVA, INDONESIA

VOLCANOES -
Reunion Island volcano wakes up after 4 years with major eruption - Sunday morning at 1:35 am, tourists on the French Indian Ocean Islands La Reunion tourists witnessed a spectacular many had been waiting to see for some time. The Piton de la Fournaise volcano erupted.
Most recently, an eruption occurred on December 9, 2010 and lasted for two days. Piton de la Fournaise, a typical basaltic shield volcano, located on the French island La Réunion, is one of the world’s most active and productive volcanoes. It is in a phase of frequent but short-lived eruptions that start with lava fountains and produce large lava flows.
Since the active areas of the volcano are not inhabited, its eruptions pose little danger and cause little damage. Piton de la Fournaise is a typical example of a hot-spot volcano. The volcano is about 530,000 years old and during much of this time, its activity overlapped with eruptions of its older neighbor, the deeply dissected Piton des Neiges shield volcano to the NW.
Three calderas formed at about 250,000, 65,000, and less than 5000 years ago by progressive eastward slumping of the volcano. Numerous pyroclastic cones dot the floor of the calderas and their outer flanks.
Most historical eruptions have originated from the summit and flanks of Dolomieu, a 400-m-high lava shield that has grown within the youngest caldera called the Enclos, which is 8 km wide and breached to below sea level on the eastern side.More than 150 eruptions, most of which have produced fluid basaltic lava flows, have occurred since the 17th century.
Only six eruptions, in 1708, 1774, 1776, 1800, 1977, and 1986, have originated from fissures on the outer flanks of the caldera. La Reunion is a French province in the Southern Indian Ocean and a member of the newly formed Vanilla Island group.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

No current tropical storms.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

National drought fears loom as India gets deficient rainfall up to June 18 - India is staring at the spectre of a possible drought as the progress of the monsoon has been abysmally slow.
If the city of Pune doesn’t receive a good rainfall by June 25, “tough measures” will be taken to tackle the looming water scarcity. Pune is the seventh largest metropolis in India and the second largest in the state of Maharashtra. The dams that supply water to the city hold a storage which can only last till July 25.
“We have water storage that will last a month. Every year the city receives at least some rains in the first fortnight of June. This year, however, there hasn’t been any rainfall in the city nor in the catchment areas of the dams which provide water to the city. We shall see how monsoon behaves for a couple of days. If it doesn’t rain we will call a review meeting on June 25 and will take some tough measures."

Severe Drought Blights North Korea - North Korea is suffering such a serious drought that soldiers have been mobilized to irrigate fields and paddies.

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Rerouting the flight paths of commercial aircraft to minimize the condensation trails, or contrails, they leave behind would help slow global warming, even if the new flight path is longer, according to new research. Contrails, thin clouds composed of ice crystals condensed from an aircraft's exhaust, can persist for 17 hours or more and are likely the single largest contributor to climate change associated with aviation.
They form when a plane passes through parts of the atmosphere that are very cold and moist, usually near high pressure systems. The new research shows that avoiding contrail formation has greater climate benefits than avoiding additional carbon dioxide emissions associated with slightly longer flight routes.
For example, for a small aircraft that is predicted to form a contrail 20 miles long, an alternative path that adds less than 200 miles will have a smaller climate impact than the contrail. For a larger aircraft, which emits more CO2 per mile than a smaller plane, the alternative route is preferable if it adds less than 60 miles.
Many governments have adopted plans to reduce aviation's climate impacts, but those plans only account for CO2 emissions, the researchers note. Understanding the climate impacts of contrails and how to avoid them is important for guiding such policies, they say.

*****
Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook - with breaking news during the day.

Sunday, June 22, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Most powerful is he who has himself in his own power.**
Seneca


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.2 JAVA, INDONESIA

Yesterday, 6/21/14 -
5.5 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.2 TONGA
5.0 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA

6/20/14 -
5.1 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.9 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.6 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.2 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.4 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.2 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

Finding Definitive Answers to North Texas Quakes Could Take Years, but Clues Appear. What is behind the tremors in North Texas? Starting late last fall, a swarm of quakes struck the communities of Reno and Azle outside of Fort Worth.
It's hardly the first community in the Lone Star State to have to deal with damaged foundations, cracked windows and rude awakenings from quakes: there have been nine other scientifically-researched quake swarms in Texas, all of them in areas of oil and gas drilling activity.

Nevada - 5 Quakes Hit Lake Tahoe Area. In less than 30 minutes, the Lake Tahoe area had 5 earthquakes ranging in magnitude from 0.8 to 2.8.

VOLCANOES -
Yellow Alert declared for Tungurahua Volcano in Ecuador - The National Secretariat for Risk Management of Ecuador on Thursday decided to change from orange to yellow the alert in Tungurahua Volcano, 80 km south of Quito, given the decline in activity.
The volcanic activity at Tungurahua has remained low in the recent days, so the authorities decided to change the level of the alert. In the first months of the year, the volcano showed an increased activity with columns of ash and gases that rose reaching four kilometers above the crater, causing the orange alert to be declared in the affected areas.
Although the alert level was changed, the Secretariat said that provintial and cantonal Emergency Operations Committees should keep on alert in order to react to any situation to protect the citizens. Tungurahua volcano erupted in 1999 and since then high activity periods with others of relative calm have been interspersed

Enigma of Changbaishan volcano - Researchers conducted a temporal deployment of over 120 broadband seismometers in northeast China over a period of two year from September, 2009 to August, 2011. This seismic array enabled visualization of the three-dimensional structure of the deep mantle of the earth in detail, at far better resolution than ever before.
A research group discovered a large a gap in the stagnant slab (a stagnating section of the subducted Pacific plate) in the mantle transition zone beneath NE China. Changbaishan volcano at the border between China and North Korea, is located further away from the subduction zone of the plate boundary where volcanoes are usually formed. Why the volcano was formed in such place was unknown until now.
Previous tomographic models indicated the presence of a horizontally laying slab, and this time, a gap of the stagnant slab in the mantle transition zone beneath Changbaishan volcano was found. This finding sheds new light on the origin of the enigmatic Changbaishan volcano.

Philippines - Volcanologists and disaster officials are monitoring Mayon, which recently showed signs of abnormality. PHIVOLCS said Alert Level 1 remains in effect, and warned the public against entering the 6-km permanent danger zone.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

No current tropical storms.

Hurricane Forecast for the Remainder of June - Vertical wind shear is predicted to be very high over most of the tropical Atlantic the remainder of June, reducing the odds of tropical storm formation.
With the active thunderstorm area of the MJO predicted to remain over the Pacific Ocean the rest of June, this will favor dry, sinking air over the Atlantic, further discouraging tropical storms from forming.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which are close to average over the Caribbean (an anomaly of +0.1°F) and cooler than average over the Gulf of Mexico (an anomaly of -0.2°F) will do no favors for any potential June tropical storms that try to form.
If development does occur in June, the most likely location would be off the east coast of Florida, between the Bahamas and Bermuda, where SSTs are slightly above average and wind shear will be lower. Storms that form in this region are typically only a threat to Bermuda.
Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, six of the nineteen years (32%) did not have a named storm develop in June. The most recent year without a June named storm developing was the El Niño year of 2009.
The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. There were two June named storms in 2013, Andrea and Barry.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Apocalypse in Bulgaria - Hurricane-like winds after the floods. After the flood that drowned half Bulgaria, today is going to be dominated by hurricane-like winds, weathermen warned yesterday.
In the past few days, RECORD AMOUNTS OF RAIN poured over the northeastern part of the country. With an average rainfall of 60-90 liters per month, the over 100 liters per square meter that flooded some parts of Bulgaria within just 24 hours, is UNPRECEDENTED.
For the last two or three days rainfall reached 140 to 160 liters per square meter, which is two to three times the monthly norm. Most of it fell on Varna (159 liters per square meter) where it killed at least 11, while the victims in Dobrich (111 liters per square meter) are so far three.
Parallel with the water element, dangerously strong winds are threatening northeastern Bulgaria from the Black Sea. Yesterday at 12 pm wind speed reached 36 meters per second or over 120 km / h at Kaliakra. In Varna and Shabla the wind blew with a speed of 18-20 meters per second.
Following the tides, the authorities are also expecting the occurance of epidemics. To limit their spread, experts warned to drink bottled water, and to consult a doctor in any case of gastro-intestinal complaints.

Torrential Rain Kills 14 People In China - A two-story school building went down in a mudslide prompted by heavy rains on Friday morning, which caused the death of a 57-year-old primary school teacher. His eight year old grandson also died during the incident in Fuzhou, Jiangxi province.
The local civil affairs bureau reported that two others are still missing. Torrential rains affected about 55 million people in Shangrao. About 100 buildings and more than 300 hectares of crops were damaged. Violent rainstorms have been pounding China’s central and southern regions. The heavy downpour has already caused flight suspension, widespread flooding and claimed more than a dozen lives.
On Friday morning, the National Meteorological Center raised its rain signal level to yellow alert. Heavy downpours have been reported to continue in the provinces of Fujian, Zhejiang, Hunan, Anhui, Guangdong and Jiangxi. Torrential rains are expected to hit the autonomous region of Guangxi Zhuang before Monday.
The civil affairs bureau in Hunan reported that mudslides and flooding have killed three people in the province. There are still two others missing while 25,000 people were already evacuated on Friday. The bureau also reported 800 destroyed houses. Economic losses have already been estimated to reach about US $52.3 million.
Public transportation in Guangdong and Hunan were also delayed or suspended on Thursday because of mudslides. A China Eastern Airlines carrier has been reported to miss the runway during landing in Shanxi. Torrential rains and poor visibility have been identified as culprits for planes to miss landings. No deaths or injuries have been reported.
Authorities warned residents of eight provinces of heavy rains. Residents were also warned about possible mudslides. The current downpour has been expected to be the heaviest this year. Public safety will be threatened due to heavy rainstorms.
The heavy rainfall in different Chinese provinces has already killed 43 people and affected more than 4 million others in Guizhou, Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian since March 30. Economic losses have already reached more than CNY12 billion (US$1.9 billion).

U. S. Midwest, Plains - Hundreds of flights were canceled or delayed across the nation by heavy rain early Friday.

Nebraska - Heavy rain floods some streets; 1 man killed. Nearly 7 inches of rain fell Friday night and early Saturday on parts of Omaha, causing some flooding of low-lying streets.

Minnesota - Storms damage crops but may ease drought. Flooding rains and hail have caused millions of dollars of damage to homes, roads and crops in southwest Minnesota.
Heavy Rain Causes Mudslide Near Minnesota Hospital - A section of a bluff as long as a football field gave way Thursday night near the University of Minnesota Medical Center. More rain could further erode the slide site, which sits just 10 feet from the hospital's steam plant.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES -

Surprise: Drought may have helped Marin's young coho - Lack of rain kept them in watershed where survival chance is greater. A RECORD NUMBER of Marin's young coho salmon are making their way out to sea and it may be the winter drought that helped boost the numbers, according to biologists.
The Marin Municipal Water District has been tracking the migration of the endangered species from the county's creeks out to the ocean since 2006. In that time the most coho counted by biologists was 11,000 in 2012. Given the dry conditions in the early part of the year it wasn't thought the number of young coho would approach that number.
But counts done in the spring showed almost 20,000 of the coho smolts in Lagunitas and Olema creeks, shattering the previous recorded high. It raises the hope that the carry capacity for coho in the Lagunitas watershed is greater than previously thought and could bode well for the recovery of the imperiled species.
"It was a huge surprise, we were expecting more like a third of what we saw. It was the dry winter and the timing of the rain that may have made the difference." Because there was little rain in the county until February, the fish — born last year — were in a holding pattern and did not move downstream. Typically as soon as rain begins, the young coho will begin making their way out to the ocean, gathering en masse in lower Lagunitas Creek.
But the habitat and lack of shelter in the lower creek can't support very many young salmon and they die off before they can get to sea. But because there was little rain in the winter, the young coho spent the winter spread throughout the watershed, which apparently approved survival.
While the Lagunitas fish were much more plentiful this year, they were also much smaller than usual, which could limit their chances of survival in the ocean. "We are hoping they grew more on the way out in the Giacomini Wetlands or in Tomales Bay." In Olema Creek the number of young coho was also high, matching a previous high set in 2009. Unlike the Lagunitas coho, the ones in Olema were normal size.
The subject fish will return to Marin in the fall of 2015 as adults, then spawn and die. There is no guarantee that the large out-migration will produce an abundance of fish coming back. On average, roughly 8 percent survive. "A lot of it depends on ocean conditions, which we have no control over." The young coho feed on krill — small shrimp-like crustaceans — to fatten up. But krill production in the open ocean can vary wildly from season to season.
But that there are more coho, which have been said to be in an "extinction vortex" is a positive, biologists said. It also suggests that more woody debris for shelter and side channels for fish to spread out would help the coho. "It's good news beyond what happens to this class of fish. This shows the watershed can produce more fish than it's been given credit for and it's a hopeful sign for population recovery."

U.S. droughts can be explained by ocean forcing - Sea surface temperature can nudge the atmosphere into conditions, subsequently exacerbated or moderated by atmospheric variability, that can lead to drought. The authors find that up to 40 percent of the variability of annual mean precipitation in the North American south, southwest, and southern Great Plains can be explained by ocean forcing.
Oceanic forcing was important in causing multiyear droughts in the 1950s and at the turn of the twenty-first century, although a similar ocean configuration in the 1970s was not associated with drought owing to an overwhelming influence of internal atmospheric variability.
Up to half of the soil moisture deficits during severe droughts in the southeast United States in 2000, Texas in 2011, and the central Great Plains in 2012 were related to SST forcing, although SST forcing was an insignificant factor for northern Great Plains drought in 1988. During the early twenty-first century, natural decadal swings in tropical Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs have contributed to a dry regime for the United States.
Long-term changes caused by increasing trace gas concentrations are now contributing to a modest signal of soil moisture depletion, mainly over the U.S. Southwest, thereby prolonging the duration and severity of naturally occurring droughts.

California steaming - State's hot year worsens drought. So far, California is enduring its HOTTEST YEAR ON RECORD, contributing to the state's WORST LEVEL OF DROUGHT IN THE PAST 40 YEARS.
Epic Drought in California Unlikely to Ease Soon - California will remain in the stranglehold of drought at least until September.

U. S. Drought summary - Very dry conditions are expected to continue all summer on the west coast, the southwest, and in Texas.

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS

Ebola called 'out of control' in West Africa - The DEADLIEST-EVER OUTBREAK of the Ebola virus has surged in West Africa after slowing briefly, and the pandemic is now "out of control," according to Doctors Without Borders.

*****
Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook - with breaking news during the day.

Friday, June 20, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**What counts is not necessarily the size of the dog in the fight - it's the size of the fight in the dog.**
Dwight Eisenhower


LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.2 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

Yesterday, 6/19/14 -
5.2 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.7 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.8 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
6.4 VANUATU
5.1 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

Slow-Motion Earthquakes Caused by Natural Fracking? Natural fracking may be to blame for weird "slow" earthquakes that last for hours to days, a new study suggests.
Oil and gas fracking involves cracking open rocks using water laced with sand and chemicals, pumped underground at high pressure. Now, seismic evidence from the Cascadia subduction zone leads researchers to suggest a similar process takes place deep on the zone's massive fault, generating slow earthquakes.
Researchers only recently discovered slow earthquakes, and scientists are still figuring out how they work. These slow-motion quakes have been detected at subduction zones offshore of Japan, New Zealand, the United States and Canada. A subduction zone is a bang-up between two of Earth's tectonic plates, where a denser oceanic plate dives under a lighter continental plate.
Each subduction zone comes with its own puzzling pattern of repeating slow earthquakes. For Cascadia, the quakes strike every 14 months; in Japan, it's every six months, and New Zealand slips every two years. Based on the new study, the researchers think this pattern is linked to the amount of quartz dissolved in trapped water under pressure on the subduction zone fault. The trapped water (or fluid pressure) in small spaces in rocks lining the plate boundary builds up until it cracks open the fault, then the cycle repeats. Faults with more quartz (or silica) in their fluids will knit together more quickly, shortening the time between earthquakes.
When the Earth shifts during a quake, the pressure on the water drops nearly instantly. Then, the fluid pressure rebuilds until the next quake hits. The fluids come from the sinking oceanic plate. As it descends, the crust heats up, and fluids, such as seawater, escape and rise. The plate boundary traps the rising fluids, leading to increasing pore fluid pressure. Many other studies have noted high fluid pressure in zones where slow earthquakes occur.
Slow earthquakes unleash the same amount of seismic energy as regular earthquakes, but because the fault movements last for minutes to months, they cause no damaging shaking. These sluggish quakes also originate deeper on the fault than where faster temblors tend to strike. Scientists aren't sure if slow earthquakes can trigger deadly fast quakes, but many researchers are investigating the link between the two kinds of earthquakes.
"We don't know why there is a transition from regular to fast earthquakes, but that's really where the research is headed." The planet's biggest earthquakes strike at subduction zones, such as the magnitude-9.0 temblor in 2011 in Japan, and an estimated magnitude-9 along the Cascadia subduction zone on Jan. 26, 1700.

California - The Bay Area is due — some would say overdue — for a major quake. Planning scenarios typically put a large quake in the range of magnitude 6.8 to 7. This is based in part on the last big earthquake on the Hayward Fault, an 1868 event estimated to have been around 6.8. It’s possible that if the Hayward interacts with a fault like the nearby Rodgers Creek to the north, the resulting temblor might register closer to a 7.2.
It’s awful to consider the damage that might cause. The 1868 quake killed some 30 people, mostly from building collapse. But at that time Oakland was a town of 12,000 and there were only about 260,000 people living in the entire Bay Area; now there are more than 7 million, more than 2 million of whom live on or near the fault. “We’ve never had a major earthquake in a modern U.S. metropolitan area, and we don’t know what the results really will be.”

VOLCANOES -
In the past few months, Alaska’s seen a flurry of volcanic eruptions and sizable earthquakes. It’s disrupted life in the Aleutian Islands and the far western Brooks Range — and it’s got scientists wondering how all the activity might be connected.
Right now, five volcanoes in the Aleutian Islands are on alert. The Alaska Volcano Observatory says it’s THE MOST ACTIVITY THEY'VE SEEN AT ONE TIME in their 26-year history. “We’re as busy as we’ve ever been in terms of the number of volcanoes that are active in the state."
Only one of those has caused major disruptions so far — Pavlof Volcano sent up an ash plume and prompted days of local flight cancellations earlier this month. But volcanoes seem to be waking up all across the chain. Shishaldin, Cleveland and Veniaminoff in the eastern and central Aleutians have been on alert for months now. In the western Aleutians, the AVO put Semisopochnoi on watch just last week.
But does it mean there’s something causing all these flare-ups? Not necessarily. Scientific understanding of plate tectonics began evolving in Alaska with the 1964 Good Friday quake, and it’s still a work in progress. If there is something bigger going on, they can’t identify it — at least not yet.
That’s also true a thousand miles north of the Aleutians, where another seismic mystery has stretched across two months. Outside Noatak in the far western Brooks Range, there’s been a series of five earthquakes, each with a magnitude 5.7. The latest was on Monday. The Noatak quakes are too far away to impact volcanoes in the Aleutians. “Some of this is just a confluence of what really is day-to-day activity in Alaska."
But their grasp on that activity is, well, shaky. They know the basics: a tectonic plate in the region seems to be slowly pulling away from the continent. Normally, that would cause one large quake. Here it’s caused five smaller quakes instead. “You can think of this as the earth sort of inching along instead of doing it in one big movement."
Still, a 5.7 magnitude earthquake is nothing to scoff at. It shows up on seismic monitors around the world, including the 400 stations in Alaska. “We have never had a focus on Western and Northern Alaska, and I personally feel that’s a bit of a liability for the state. This sequence certainly indicates that there’s plenty of opportunity in these areas for earthquakes to intersect with populations.”
Alaskans live on volatile land. Quakes and volcanoes can damage property in the interior and interrupt air travel or set off tsunamis at sea. Even in remote towns, more monitors are always a good thing. Four of AVO’s on-alert volcanoes are repeat offenders with a long baseline of data. The fifth is more of an outlier. Semisopochnoi had been quiet since 1987 — the year before the AVO was formed – before it rumbled to life with a swarm of little earthquakes last week.
Since the island is so remote, they don’t know much about it. “It’s a volcano with a fairly violent past — it’s had a whole number of eruptions…. It’s actually a large caldera with a whole number of vents and very large lava flows that our geological investigations suggest are not that old. And we are currently watching it very, very closely, because the type of activity it’s experiencing is what you might see or might expect at a reawakening volcano.”

Hawaii - Is Mauna Loa volcano beginning to stir? The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory has recorded increased seismic activity on the flanks and summit of Mauna Loa over the past 13 months. Mauna Loa is the world's largest active volcano.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

No current tropical storms.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Bulgaria floods: At least 10 killed in port city of Varna - The Black Sea town of Varna has received the equivalent of A MONTH'S RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS. At least 10 people have died and several are missing after torrential rain and heavy floods hit eastern Bulgaria.
Floodwaters in the Black Sea port city of Varna surged up to 1m (3.2ft). Many residents had to be rescued as cars were swept away. Hundreds have been left without electricity or food. There have been hailstorms and heavy rain in several parts of Bulgaria in recent days. Forecasts say the extreme weather is set to continue.
More bad weather is forecast for the end of the week. Forecasters said that the equivalent of a month's worth of rain fell in the regions of Varna and Burgas over the last 24 hours. "The tragedy is enormous. I am here on a street in the suburb of Aspruhovo. The street is not here, the houses are not here, there are cars on top of each other."
Fire-fighters in the town of Kilifarevo in central Bulgaria rescued 11 people from the tops of their houses. The flooding in Bulgaria follows on from similar deluges in the Balkans last month. Nearby Serbia and Bosnia were hit by THE WORST FLOODING SINCE MODERN RECORDS BEGAN. (photos and map at link)

Heavy rain this week pushing rivers out of their banks across Iowa - More rain was falling throughout the day in the flooded areas and their watersheds upstream.

Minnesota - More flooding. The Twin Cities and much of Minnesota continue to deal with the large amounts of rain that have fallen the last few days.

Illinois - More than 10 inches of rain fell in Dixon and west of Mendota just outside the Chicago area in 24 hours. A nearly stationary frontal boundary is to blame for the heavy rain and flash flooding that affected a large swath of real estate in northern Illinois.

Heavy rain hits Interior Alaska; rising rivers could cause minor flooding. The season's first big rainfall dumped more than 4 inches of rain on some parts of eastern Interior Alaska.

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS

Deadly pig virus cases in US projected to surge after summer - U.S. veterinarians are warning that outbreaks of a deadly pig virus will climb this autumn after a summertime hiatus, likely killing another 2.5 million pigs over the next 12 months and amplifying an increase in pork prices.

*****
Global Disaster Watch is on Facebook - with breaking news during the day.