Wednesday, March 31, 2010

The map is not the territory.
Alfred Korzybski


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.1 SUMBAWA REGION, INDONESIA

Yesterday -
3/30/10 -
6.6 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.9 EASTERN SEA OF JAPAN

VOLCANOES -

ICELAND - Volcanic activity at the crater on Fimmvörduháls in south Iceland increased Monday afternoon after having subsided the night before and Monday morning. Shortly after 6 pm, a series of earthquakes measuring 2-2.5 on the Richter scale shook the region. The seismic activity is an indication of the force of the eruption, which is gradually decreasing. GPS monitors that measure tectonics show that the lithosphere has ceased expanding and even contracted a little. However, that is no certain indication that the eruption is about to finish. Roughly estimated, 15-20 million cubic meters of solid volcanic debris might have spurted to the surface from inside the earth since the eruption began on March 21. The lava now covers approximately one square kilometer. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone PAUL was 655 nmi WNW of Cairns, Australia.

AUSTRALIA - Having been hit by two tropical cyclones so far this season, Queensland had been the center of tropical cyclone activity, but with the recent arrival of Tropical Cyclone Paul, it is now the Northern Territory's turn to experience heavy rains and gusty winds. Paul originated from a low pressure circulation embedded within the monsoon trough over the Arufura Sea between the northern coast of Australia and New Guinea. As the circulation drifted southward towards northern Australia it intensified slowly and only became a Category 1 cyclone on the evening of March 28, when the center was right over the northeast coast of the Northern Territory where it brought wind gusts of up to 110 kph (~70 mph).
A 3-D perspective of the storm was created from data from TRMM's Precipitation Radar instrument. The most prominent feature is a deep convective tower, which penetrates up to 9 miles (15 km) high. This corresponds with an area of intense rain in the northwestern eyewall evident in the TRMM's image of horizontal rainfall. These tall towers are associated with convective bursts and can be a sign of future strengthening as they indicate areas where heat, known as latent heat, is being released into the storm. This heating is what drives the storm's circulation. Despite Paul's proximity to land, it was able to intensify into a Category 2 cyclone (equivalent to a minimal Category 1 hurricane) by the following morning with wind gusts of up to 140 kph (~85 mph). Paul is hovering over land along the coast and is expected to weaken slowly over the next day or so; however, it could eventually re-emerge over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria and re-intensify.

FIJI - Residents of an island in northern Fiji say they will run out of food in less than two weeks if government aid does not reach them. When Cyclone Tomas hit two weeks ago, the Fijian government promised food aid would be sent to outlying areas as quickly as possible. But on Taveuni Island, residents say hundreds of people are still without food, clothing and tents. More than 500 homes were destroyed by the cyclone, with a damage bill of $US18 million.

HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

U.S. - The second major rainstorm of the month pounded the Northeast on Tuesday, pushing rivers over their banks, closing roads and schools, prompting evacuations, and SHATTERING AT LEAST ONE RAINFALL RECORD. In Rhode Island, officials expect THE MOST SEVERE FLOODING TO HIT THE STATE IN MORE THAN 100 YEARS. "The worst is still ahead of us. We're in a serious, serious situation." National Guard troops were activated in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island, where neighborhoods still recovering from earlier flooding were again swamped after two days of unrelenting rain. A storm two weeks ago dropped as much as much as 10 inches of rain on the same region. Although the rain tapered off in many areas Tuesday afternoon, forecasters said the region's rivers might not crest until Wednesday or even Thursday.
By Tuesday afternoon, Providence had recorded more than 15 inches of rain for the month, becoming THE RAINIEST OF ANY MONTH ON RECORD, breaking a mark set in 2005. Boston also SET A RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH, topping a mark set in 1953, with nearly 14 inches of rain. It is now the second rainiest month since record keeping began in 1872. New Jersey and parts of New York City also SET MARCH RECORDS, and Portland, Maine, was approaching one.
Hundreds of people across Rhode Island evacuated their homes. Scattered evacuations were reported in Connecticut and Massachusetts, and officials in New Hampshire warned residents in flood-prone areas to prepare to leave. No injuries had been reported in those states from the storm as of Tuesday evening.
In New York City, a mudslide caused some interruptions on a commuter rail line in the Bronx. Airports including LaGuardia and Kennedy in New York and Newark Liberty in New Jersey also reported weather-related delays.

AUSTRALIA - The damage bill for last week's hail storm in Perth could top the $880 million in claims for Melbourne's flash flood in January. There have been 89,000 claims totalling $650 million so far in Western Australia, but these figures are likely to rise further. The hail storm devastated Perth and the south-west when it hit late in the afternoon on March 22, blacking out about 200,000 homes and businesses, damaging thousands of cars and flooding roads and residences.

HEALTH THREATS -

Study says entry screening may have worked - Countries that began screening incoming travelers after the World Health Organization issued its pandemic alert last year may have delayed local transmission 7 to 12 days. Entry screening at airports, ports, and border crossings "may lead to short-term delays in local transmission of a novel strain of influenza virus." Resources need to be balanced against expected benefits.

South Africa faces wide outbreak of Rift Valley fever - An outbreak of Rift Valley fever that began in South Africa in February has expanded to five of the country's nine provinces, with 63 human cases and 2 deaths in three provinces. Rift Valley fever is transmitted among animals by mosquitoes. Most human cases are mild, with severe disease occurring in about 1% of cases. In severe cases, the virus can cause meningoencephalitis, retinal disease, or bleeding, and there is no specific treatment. Disease experts are concerned about the possibility of an introduction of the virus into the United States. South Africa has had sporadic cases of Rift Valley fever in recent years. The last major outbreak was in 1974-76, when an estimated 10,000 to 20,000 human cases occurred. South Africa is particularly alert to disease outbreaks at the moment, because the country will host the 2010 FIFA World Cup soccer tournament from June 11 to July 11 in venues around the country.

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Each forward step we take we leave some phantom of ourselves behind.
John Lancaster Spalding


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
6.0 EASTERN SEA OF JAPAN

Yesterday -
3/29/10 -
5.3 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
5.2 LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE

JAPAN - A strong 5.8 magnitude quake has struck off northern Japan, but no tsunami warning was issued. The quake hit at 10.02 am in the Sea of Japan (East Sea), just east of Hokkaido island. Its depth was estimated at 35 kilometres (almost 22 miles).

MYSTERY BOOMS / SKYQUAKES -
OREGON - 3/28/10 - Authorities still don't know the cause of a Southeast Portland boom. It was the second mysterious
explosion-like sound to hit the area in two weeks.
Portland authorities have no idea what caused the Sunday night boom that shook a number of residents' homes in Southeast Portland about 8:05 p.m. Many calls came in from the Sellwood neighborhood, but residents from Happy Valley to the Hillsdale area also reported hearing the ruckus. Portland Fire and Rescue sent several crews out, but "nobody could find anything." Portland Fire contacted the airport, but no causes were found there. Police were similarly stumped. There were no reports to confirm that a sonic boom occurred, which some Portland authorities guessed to be the cause. Residents reported a similar incident March 15, and no authorities ended up pinpointing the cause. Some pointed to fireworks as an explanation, but it was never confirmed. The latest one was much louder, and it was "very sudden, very quick." The mystery had the Portland area Twitterverse abuzz, as tweet after tweet referenced the "pdxboom."

VOLCANOES -

Undersea volcano could destroy Italy 'as soon as tomorrow' - expert warns. Europe's largest undersea volcano could disintegrate and unleash a tsunami that would engulf southern Italy "at any time". The Marsili volcano, which is bursting with magma, has "fragile walls" that could collapse.
"It could even happen tomorrow. Our latest research shows that the volcano is not structurally solid, its walls are fragile, the magma chamber is of sizeable dimensions. All that tells us that the volcano is active and could begin erupting at any time." The event would result in "a strong tsunami that could strike the coasts of Campania, Calabria and Sicily." The undersea Marsili, 3000m tall and located some 150km south-west of Naples, has not erupted since the start of recorded history. It is 70km long and 30km wide, and its crater is some 450m below the surface of the Tyrrhenian Sea. "A rupture of the walls would let loose millions of cubic metres of material capable of generating a very powerful wave. While the indications that have been collected are precise, it is impossible to make predictions. The risk is real but hard to evaluate."

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone PAUL was 623 nmi WNW of Cairns, Australia.

Heavy rain and destructive winds from cyclone Paul have battered Arnhem Land for 24 hours, bringing down trees and causing flooding. Cyclone Paul crossed the east coast of the Northern Territory yesterday morning and remains a category two storm, with winds of up to 130km/h. More than 300mm of rain has fallen in the past 48 hours at Groote Eylandt, where schools and a BHP mine remain closed. The cyclone has also caused stream flooding in parts of Arnhem Land, while trees have been brought down across roads in some areas. The Bureau of Meteorology expects the cyclone to weaken below cyclone strength today, but warns it could strengthen again later in the week. "It's not necessarily all over ... if it does get back over waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria it could reintensify fairly quickly. There are no clear indications for the longer term, some models have it heading east across the gulf, other models have it heading toward Western Australia."

HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

NEW YORK on pace for WETTEST MARCH EVER - Rain falling through Wednesday may push New York City to a record for the wettest March, while warmer weather arriving this weekend threatens temperature marks in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. New York and the Northeast are forecast to get 5.5 inches (13.9 centimeters) of rainfall from the storm that started late Sunday, pushing swollen rivers from New Jersey to Massachusetts back into flood stage. Manhattan’s Central Park received 10.54 inches of rain in March 1983, the current record. The overnight rainfall pushed this month’s unofficial total to about 7.7 inches. “They are going to get soaked, it will be 2 to 4 inches easy across the Northeast. I am concerned about widespread flooding from New Jersey up into eastern Massachusetts, and that includes New York City.” An unbroken string of flood watches and warnings stretches from Maine to Virginia. The storm is another in a series that can be blamed, at least in part, on El Nino. Storms driven by El Nino have dropped record-breaking snow and soaking rains that have swollen rivers, washed out roads and railroad tracks and flooded basements across the Northeast this year. “It has been a pretty wild season. Every storm we have had since February has been a big snow producer or a big rain producer.” A coast flood advisory has been issued for New York and southern Connecticut because tides are expected to be 1 to 1.5 feet above normal.
When the rain ends, temperatures are forecast to rise to the mid- to upper-70s. Readings may be in the 80s for Washington and Baltimore and as far north as Philadelphia. “There will be record- or near record-breaking heat into a good portion of the mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast as well. This warmth is a definite lock, it is going to be unusually warm.” The highest temperature recorded in Central Park on April 1 was 83. Philadelphia’s record for the date is 81, while the Washington and Baltimore record is 88. Temperatures from the Rocky Mountains east should be about 10 to 20 degrees above normal.
California and the West will have below-normal temperatures. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center calls for below-average temperatures from the Pacific Coast to parts of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico from April 3 to April 7.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

The Gulf Stream does not appear to be slowing down, say US scientists. Confirming work by other scientists, they found dramatic short-term variability but no longer-term trend. A slow-down is projected by some models of climate change. The stream is a key process in the climate of western Europe, bringing heat northwards from the tropics and keeping countries such as the UK 4-6C warmer than they would otherwise be. It forms part of a larger movement of water, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which is itself one component of the global thermohaline system of currents. Between 2002 and 2009, there was no trend discernible - just a lot of variability on short timescales.The satellite record going back to 1993 did suggest a small increase in flow, although the researchers cannot be sure it is significant. "The changes we're seeing in overturning strength are probably part of a natural cycle. The slight increase in overturning since 1993 coincides with a decades-long natural pattern of Atlantic heating and cooling." The first observations suggesting the circulation was slowing down emerged in 2005. Using an array of detectors across the Atlantic and comparing its readings against historical records, scientists suggested the volume of cold water returning southwards could have fallen by as much as 30% in half a century - a significant decline. The surface water sinks in the Arctic and flows back southwards at the bottom of the ocean, driving the circulation. However, later observations by the same team showed that the strength of the flow varied hugely on short timescales - from one season to the next, or even shorter. But they have not found any clear trend since 2004. The quantities of water involved are huge, varying between four million and 35 million tonnes of water per second.
Driven by Hollywood, a popular image of a Gulf Stream slowdown shows a sudden catastrophic event driving snowstorms across the temperate lands of western Europe and eastern North America. That has always been fantasy - as is the idea that a slow-down would trigger another ice age. "But the Atlantic overturning circulation is still an important player in today's climate. Some have suggested cyclic changes in the overturning may be warming and cooling the whole North Atlantic over the course of several decades and affecting rainfall patterns across the US and Africa, and even the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic." (map)

BEE DIE-OFF -

Colony Collapse Disorder continued in 2009 as bees disappear from US. The decline in the US bee population, first observed in 2006, is continuing, a phenomenon that still baffles researchers and beekeepers. Data from the US Department of Agriculture showed a 29 per cent drop in beehives in 2009, following a 36 per cent decline in 2008 and a 32 per cent fall in 2007. This affected not only honey production but around $15 billion worth of crops that depended on bees for pollination. Scientists call the phenomenon "colony collapse disorder", and it has led to the disappearance of millions of adult bees and beehives and occurred elsewhere in the world, including in Europe. Researchers have looked at viruses, parasites, insecticides, malnutrition and other environmental factors but have been unable to pinpoint a specific cause for the population decline.
The rough winter in many parts of the United States will likely accentuate the problem. But preliminary estimates already indicated losses of 30 to 50 per cent. "There are a lot of beekeepers who are in trouble. Under normal condition you have 10 per cent winter losses ... this year there are 30, 40 to 50 per cent losses." The phenomenon probably resulted from a combination of factors but the increased use of pesticides appears to be a major cause.
"I don't put my bees in Florida because the last couple of years there has been tremendous increase in pesticide use in the orange crop to fight a disease. It's a bacterium and the only way to control this disease is to use pesticide ... a few years ago they did not use any pesticide at all." Research conducted in 23 US states and Canada found 121 different pesticides in 887 samples of bees, wax, pollen and other elements of hives, lending credence to the notion of pesticides as a key problem.

HEALTH THREATS -

Georgia's rise in serious H1N1 cases worries CDC - Public health officials are so concerned by an uptick of serious cases of H1N1 flu in the southeastern United States that they called a short-notice press briefing yesterday to urge Americans to be vaccinated against the pandemic strain. They said they are particularly concerned about the "worrisome trend" in Georgia, where "more than 40" people were hospitalized in the past week for lab-confirmed flu. Since mid-February, Georgia has had more flu-related hospitalizations than any other state, as well as more than Georgia has seen since its flu peak in October. Last week, the CDC said that Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina were experiencing regional activity, the second-highest level of flu activity. The new cases are occurring in adults with chronic medical conditions, a group that health officials have consistently urged to take the H1N1 shot. The new victims were not vaccinated - Georgia had one of the lowest rates of flu-vaccine acceptance last fall. The CDC is sufficiently concerned about the Georgia cases that it has loaned a team of its disease detectives to the state. "Seeing an increase in cases again in Georgia is UNUSUAL. Does that mean we're going to see that in other states? I really don't know."
Asked whether the Georgia cases might be the first blip in a feared third wave of flu: "I can't say whether we'll have another wave of infection, but I'm worried about a different possibility. I'm worried that additional cases will be happening day in and day out in people who thought there was no risk anymore." Since the beginning of the pandemic almost a year ago, 265,000 Americans have been hospitalized for H1N1 infections and 12,000 have died, according to CDC estimates. "Ninety percent of those people, about 11,000, are people under 65," in contrast to a normal season in which most victims are elderly. "We estimate that the rate of death in young people is probably five times higher than what we would typically see with seasonal influenza." In an average year, 36,000 Americans die of flu.

China drought threatens key Tamiflu ingredient - A severe drought in four of China's southwestern provinces is threatening production of star anise, a major source of shikimic acid, a key ingredient of oseltamivir (Tamiflu). A forestry expert said Roche, the maker of Tamiflu, gets two thirds of its star anise from China. A Roche official said it's not clear if the drought will affect Tamiflu production and that the company could substitute another ingredient for star anise.

Monday, March 29, 2010

Don't miss the donut by looking through the hole.
Author Unknown


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
3/28/10 -
5.2 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.5 OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
5.5 OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
5.1 TONGA
5.4 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.0 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND

Haiti has long had glaring inequality, with tiny pockets of wealth persisting amid extreme poverty. But the quake disaster has focused new attention on this gap, making for surreal contrasts along the streets above Port-au-Prince’s central districts. People in tent camps reeking of sewage are living in areas where prosperous Haitians, foreign aid workers and diplomats come to spend their money and unwind. The lights of the casino above this wrecked city beckon as gamblers in freshly pressed clothes stream to the roulette table and slot machines. In a restaurant nearby, diners quaff champagne and eat New Zealand lamb chops at prices rivaling those in Manhattan. A few yards away, hundreds of families displaced by the earthquake languish under tents and tarps, bathing themselves from buckets and relieving themselves in the street. The owner of the casino smiled and said business had never been better, attributing the uptick at his casino to the money coming into Haiti for relief projects.
“There’s nothing logical about what’s going on right now." The nongovernmental organizations “are flooding the local economy with their spending, but it’s not clear if much of it is trickling down.”

Scientists are increasingly pointing to storms as a trigger for earthquakes and landslides. New evidence shows that atmospheric low pressure systems can prompt a landslide to lurch downward. Pressure drops when warm daytime air results in low "tides," or when fast-moving storms race onto the scene. The effect on landslides and earthquakes only occurs when the pressure plummets suddenly, causing underground water and air to shoot toward the surface. That reduces friction between grinding subterranean plates, or under a landslide that's been held immobile by abrasive dirt and rocks. "Slides, earthquakes, glaciers, volcanic eruptions -- all of these things involve soil sliding on soil, or rock sliding on rock. And sliding is resisted primarily by one thing, and that's friction."
The same conclusion was reached by scientists in Taiwan. Low pressure accompanying typhoons sparked small earthquakes along the fault between the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate. The scientists note that they make "a definitive connection between fault slip and changes in atmospheric pressure." Importantly, both studies say weather impacts can accelerate an earthly act that was bound to happen sooner or later. In other words, low pressure is not the cause of an earthquake, just the trigger.
With climate change, "storm systems are supposed to become more numerous and more severe. One can assume, then, if you've got more severe storms, or storms with, say, more extreme pressure changes, then the effects [on seismic activity] could be more pronounced in the future." That assertion comes as natural catastrophes are rising worldwide. In the 1950s, two mega-disasters, defined as killing thousands of people and uprooting hundreds of thousands more, would occur annually. Now, that number routinely reaches six a year, and often more.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone PAUL was 572 nmi WNW of Cairns, Australia.

Category one cyclone Paul will move across the Northern Territory in Australia today, whipping up wind and rain before being downgraded to a low. Paul is creating 110km/h winds near its centre, with gales at coastal and island communities. A cyclone warning has been issued for the eastern tip of the Northern Territory and surrounding islands. On Sunday night, Cyclone Paul was stationary on the coast near Cape Shield and was expected to move inland around Cape Shield and weaken to a low by Monday afternoon. A storm tide is expected between Cape Shield and Port Roper, with tides likely to rise significantly above normal high-tide levels. Damaging waves, heavy rain and dangerous flooding were likely on Sunday and Monday.

HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

NORTH CAROLINA - Multiple mobile homes were overturned and people injured after a tornado touched down in North Carolina. Most of the damage centred around Davidson County, within the Piedmont region of central North Carolina. There was significant damage to a trailer park and injuries were reported in Lexington, while several trailers were damaged in Thomasville, with at least one person hurt.
The large tornado was reported to have touched the ground near Green St Baptist Church in Point, Guilford County. The storm was also producing 113km/h winds and hailstones as large as baseballs.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

GUYANA - drought that has battered the tiny South American nation's rice and sugar exports and caused food shortages in indigenous communities. The government of the country of about 750,000 people is struggling to irrigate farmland, with water at storage points reaching dangerously low levels. Guyana is one of several countries in the region, including neighboring Venezuela, that have been parched by drought since the end of last year.

HEALTH THREATS -

AUSTRALIA - Health authorities are warning of a double whammy flu threat this year, with both the swine flu and more conventional strains in wide circulation.

Fatty foods can be as addictive as drugs - Scientists have finally confirmed what the rest of us have suspected for years: Bacon, cheesecake, and other delicious, yet fattening, foods may be addictive.

Sunday, March 28, 2010

We must learn our limits.
We are all something, but none of us are everything.
Blaise Pascal


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.3 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU

Yesterday -
3/27/10 -
None 5.0 or higher.
3/26/10 -
6.2 ATACAMA, CHILE
5.7 BANDA SEA
5.2 TONGA

VOLCANOES -

ICELAND - The search and rescue association has issued a warning that dangerous toxic fumes are in the air in the immediate surroundings of the volcanic crater on Fimmvörduháls, which can cause permanent damages to the lungs if inhaled. The chemicals being released into the atmosphere are sulfur, fluorine, carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide, which is odorless and deadly. Plans to open the road into the valley of Thórsmörk where the lava flow is headed were aborted Friday morning because the flow in the river Hvanná suddenly increased.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone TWENTYTWO was 582 nmi WNW of Cairns, Australia.

Tropical storm Twentytwo was forecast to strike Australia at about 18:00 GMT on 27 March.

Forecasters say weather patterns are conspiring to produce a busy hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean, with one meteorologist predicting more than a half-dozen storms coming ashore in 2010. This follows a quiet 2009 season, in which the U.S. mainland was not touched by any of the giant tropical storms. "This year has the chance to be an extreme season," says AccuWeather, which correctly predicted 2009's quiet season and the record-setting snowfall this winter along the East Coast. "It is certainly much more like 2008 than 2009, as far as the overall threat to the United States' East and Gulf coasts."
The reasons most commonly cited for the 2010 forecast:
• A weakening of El Nino, the weather pattern that creates warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean. In El Nino years, such as 2009, a persistent west-to-east wind blows across the southern United States. That wind tends to disrupt the formation of tropical systems in the Atlantic and Caribbean.
• Water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are warmer than last summer. Tropical systems get their power from warm water.
• Weaker winds off the west coast of Africa. That, forecasters say, will lessen the chances of dust from the Sahara Desert blowing into the Atlantic and disrupting the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. Such a condition was present last year.
The hurricane season officially begins June 1.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

The year New Zealand blew strangely hot and cold. - Heatwaves and sudden snow bombarded the country in 2009, a year of extreme heat and cold that left many wondering which season they were in. Last year may have been fairly average by historical standards - ranking just 0.2C below the long-term temperature average of 12.5C - but the annual average masked a topsy-turvy year of sudden temperature change. The year got off to a dry start in January, with less than half the normal rainfall over much of the country combined with unusually warm temperatures in many places. February kicked off with a heatwave from the 7th to the 12th, and many places topped 34C. But those who thought they were in for a toasty year were due for a shock. Chilly southerly winds plunged temperatures to their COLDEST IN MAY in many places, with an extra dose of rain on top. The early chill ended abruptly in August, which was THE HOTTEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN 155 YEARS AGO. All regions broke records for average August heat as northwesterly winds delivered an early spring. Then THE COLDEST OCTOBER SINCE WWII brought heavy snow dumps to Hawkes Bay and the central North Island and trapped unwary motorists in their cars. "We typically say winter is the months of June, July and August [but in 2009 we said] there was an early onset to winter and spring. Unfortunately it got cool again in October, so spring didn't last very long." The temperature extremes could not be explained by moderate El Nino conditions. "Sometimes the weather just happens."

CHINA - Emergency wells were being drilled and cloud-seeding operations carried out in southern China, where THE WORST DROUGHT IN DECADES has left millions of people without water and caused more than 1,000 schools to close. "The situation here will get worse in the coming months before it gets any better, but hopefully with more wells and water being diverted to those in need, we can help ease the situation. The drought, which has left southwestern China suffering since last year, has affected about 61 million people and left more than 12 million acres (about 5 million hectares) barren in Guizhou, Yunnan, Sichuan, Chongqing and Guangxi. "Cloud seeding hasn't been very successful, so even though we are drilling for wells and diverting water from dams to people in need, new areas will begin to suffer as long as there is no rain." China has been experimenting with weather modification for decades.
For parts of Yunnan, it is the WORST DROUGHT IN A CENTURY. Since late 2009, mountainous Yunnan and its neighboring provinces have received little rainfall, causing crop and livestock losses worth 23.7 billion yuan ($3.47 billion). Neighboring Guizhou province has been hit with its WORST DROUGHT IN 80 YEARS, while in Guangxi it is THE WORST DROUGHT IN 50 YEARS. In Guangxi, where sugar cane crops have perished and white sugar production is expected to decline this year, 67 producers have been forced to shut down, nearly double the number during the same period last year. Further south, the severe drought has dropped the Mekong River to its LOWEST LEVEL IN 20 YEARS after an early end to the 2009 wet season and low rainfall during the monsoons. The Mekong, which originates in the Tibetan Plateau and flows to southeast Asia through Yunnan, is the lifeblood for 65 million people in six countries — Cambodia, China, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar and Vietnam.
China's huge land mass means drought can occur in one region while others have record-breaking temperatures and severe storms that can cause floods.

Monarch butterflies normally find sanctuary in the mountains of Mexico, away from the cold winters of North America, but a harsh winter of torrential rain and mudslides has decimated the monarch butterfly population. A harsh winter has reduced butterflies' population by as much as 50 percent. Not even sticking close together under tall fir trees as they normally do could protect them from the downpours and freezing temperatures. "We saw a number of things happen in Mexico this winter that shouldn't be happening but are probably due to climate change in some way."
"One of the things that's predicted from climate change is you see a lot of moisture coming into central Mexico in the dry season and that moisture came in with a passion this winter, and it was just very destructive. We had 15 inches of rain over a three-day period, and it was just devastating. "It was pretty clear that in some locations 80 percent of the butterflies had been lost, in other locations it had been 20 to 30 percent, and in other places it was 50 percent or more loss."
It's THE LOWEST NUMBER OF MONARCHS EVER SEEN returning to the United States. Around this time each year, sightings of the butterflies are reported from Florida to Texas, but this year there has been about a quarter of the usual sightings in the south. While researchers suspect climate change and the destruction of their habitat in the U.S. and Mexico as the cause of the population's precipitous drop, it may also be a natural phenomenon. "What we're going to try to do is get people to plant regionally appropriate milkweed all over the country so that we can create the habitat or try to replace some of the habitat that's being lost due to development and other conditions in this country."

--------------
PICK YOUR POISON, WHICH OF THESE ARTICLES IS CORRECT?

A team of scientists
has determined that the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 4th assessment report UNDERestimates the potential dangerous impacts that man-made climate change will have on society. "Even if all man-made greenhouse gas emissions were stopped tomorrow and carbon-dioxide levels stabilized at today's concentration, by the end of this century, the global average temperature would increase by about 4.3 degrees Fahrenheit, or about 2.4 degrees centigrade above pre-industrial levels, which is significantly above the level which scientists and policy makers agree is a threshold for dangerous climate change. Of course, greenhouse gas emissions will not stop tomorrow, so the actual temperature increase will likely be significantly larger, resulting in potentially catastrophic impacts to society unless other steps are taken to reduce the Earth's temperature. Furthermore, while the oceans have slowed the amount of warming we would otherwise have seen for the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the ocean's thermal inertia will also slow the cooling we experience once we finally reduce our greenhouse gas emissions." This means that the temperature rise we see this century will be largely irreversible for the next thousand years. "Reducing greenhouse gas emissions alone is unlikely to mitigate the risks of dangerous climate change. Society should significantly expand research into geoengineering solutions that remove and sequester greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere. Geoengineering solutions must be in addition to, not replace, dramatic emission reductions if society is to avoid the most dangerous impacts from climate change."

Climate not changing as quickly as projected. When the global temperature computer models were developed, several important factors were either omitted or put in at adjusted rates such as sea surface temperatures, black dust from Eurasia and solar influence of the sun. All of these factors have an effect on global temperature along with greenhouse gases like methane. When the correct values for these factors were fed into the computer model, the adjusted global temperate went down. Water vapor in the upper atmosphere is declining and because it is declining, the temperature is not rising at the rate it was projected to raise. Water vapor is a greenhouse gas, and it is decreasing. "EPA is wrong; most of the warming is not, most likely, the result of changes in greenhouse gases." Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas, and according to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the level of methane in the atmosphere is going up. Bovine flatulence, rice paddy agriculture, and coal mining are three of the main sources of methane gas emissions. But methane gas in the atmosphere is not increasing according to computer model projections. Global temperature is rising at a constant rate, not at a wild exponential rate as suggested by some computer models. When all of the computer models are all saying something different, how do we decide which one is correct? "Look out the window. It is not rocket science. See which model matches what the weather is doing now."

The science doesn't lie on climate change - Big Oil wants us to remain addicted to oil, a major source of carbon pollution. So it and other special interests have conducted an aggressive disinformation campaign for more than a decade to convince Americans that there's a major disagreement among scientists on the dangers posed by carbon pollution, just as the tobacco industry disputed the science to keep smokers addicted. Yes, the 3,000-page review of the scientific literature by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007 has a couple of "trivial mistakes" in it. But the British Royal Academy, the oldest scientific body in the world, and the Met Office, part of the United Kingdom's Defense Ministry, noted that "even since the 2007 IPCC Assessment, the evidence for dangerous, long-term, and potentially irreversible climate change has strengthened."
The basic science is clear. Naturally occurring, heat-trapping gases keep the planet about 60 degrees warmer than it would otherwise be, giving us the livable climate we have today. Since the industrial revolution, humankind has spewed vast quantities of extra greenhouse gases, principally carbon dioxide from fossil fuels, into the atmosphere, causing more and more heat to be trapped. And so the atmosphere is warming. "The last 10 years are the warmest 10-year period of the modern record." It may have seemed like a cool January in parts of this country, but globally it was the hottest January in the satellite record. And while it may be counterintuitive, we actually get more snowstorms in warm years."

There is no global warming consensus - Call it the global warming crackup, an unfolding process of contradictory claims about glaciers, weather, and scientists asserting a consensus when none exists. Global warming alarmists can't make up their minds because the entire basis for their energy rationing project has collapsed into a mess of errors, exaggerations, and deceit. The Obama administration said the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the "gold standard" for climate science, yet now the Environmental Protection Agency administrator won't defend it. The IPCC and Al Gore won the Nobel Peace Prize. Now the IPCC has retracted several false claims concerning, among other things, rain forests shrinking, crops dying, and sea levels rising. We've been told weather is not to be confused with climate, except when you have heat waves or blizzards. We've been told cap-and-trade would create thousands of green jobs, yet the Congressional Budget Office, Department of Energy, National Black Chamber of Commerce, and others say it would mean a net loss of jobs.
We are told that increasing levels of CO2 will increase temperature, yet the key scientist in the climategate scandal says there's been "no statistically significant warming" in the past 15 years - all while CO2 levels have increased. We've been told that there is an "indisputable consensus" that human-caused global warming is happening and pushing the planet to certain disaster. Yet that same scientist now says that the vast majority of climate scientists don't agree on what the data are telling us. There is no consensus - except agreement there are significant gaps in what scientists know about the climate system.


HEALTH THREATS -

Pandemic activity may be increasing across Central America and in some parts of South America. Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Panama, and parts of Brazil have reported increasing pandemic flu detections. Mexico is seeing more respiratory illnesses, though it's not clear if flu is the cause. Flu activity hasn't peaked in West Africa, though it is subsiding in Thailand. European countries are increasingly reporting influenza B.

Friday, March 26, 2010

You can't wake a person who is pretending to be asleep.
Navajo Proverb


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.1 TONGA

Yesterday -
3/25/10 -
5.0 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.5 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.0 GUAM REGION
5.1 OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
5.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
6.1 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES

VOLCANOES -

ICELAND - The erupting volcano is between two glaciers and it could spread to both ice sheets, causing major flooding. The flow of floodwater could reach 10,000 cubic metres. That could flood an area of 100 square kilometres and could also spark an eruption at the bigger, adjacent Katla volcano. A state of emergency is in force in southern Iceland and more than 500 people in villages and farms in the area have been evacuated.
When Katla last produced a major eruption in 1918, the flood water flow was of Amazon proportions at 250,000 cubic metres.
The potential eruption of Iceland's volcano Katla would likely send the world, including the USA, into an extended deep freeze. "When Katla went off in the 1700s, the USA suffered a very cold winter. To the point, the Mississippi River froze just north of New Orleans, and the East Coast, especially New England, had an extremely cold winter. Depending on a new eruption, Katla could cause some serious weather changes."
Scientists say history has proven that whenever the Eyjafjallajokull volcano erupts, Katla always follows -- the only question is how soon. "If it (Eyjafjallajokull) continues to belch, then you worry." What's key in having volcanic eruptions affect the weather is both the duration of the eruption, and how high the ash gets blasted into the stratosphere. "When volcanic ash reaches the stratosphere, it remains for a long time. The ash becomes a very effective block of the incoming solar radiation, thus cooling the atmosphere's temperatures."

RUSSIA - A belching of ash to the altitude of seven kilometers above sea level has been registered over the crater of the Shiveluch, Kamchatka’s northernmost active volcano. The exuding of ash does not pose any risks for nearby population centers, as no data on the fallout of volcanic dust there has been reported. The belching was not seen visually and scientists drew a conclusion that it had taken place on the basis of information from seismic observation stations located in the vicinity of the volcano. They registered “a surface seismic event at the volcano” having a four minutes’ duration. At this moment, the volcano displays weak or moderate eruption periods lasting from several months to two to three years. The periods of its activation were registered in 1980 to 1981 and 1993 to 1995. The last eruption ranking among disasters occurred in November 1964. The Shiveluch activated again in 2001, with a growth of the extrusive cupola – a towering of viscose lava -- evidenced in its crater. Geophysical services and agencies keep the giant under permanent watch.
Klyuchevskaya volcano continues to be active - emitting steam, ash, and lava in early 2010.

MONTSERRAT - Passengers on a jet flying over the Caribbean have received a close-up look at a massive volcanic eruption sending ash and dust higher than the plane itself. The 737 jet was flying to the holiday destination of St Lucia when it passed the Soufriere Hills volcano on the island of Monserrat midway through its eruption. Passengers rushed to the windows to see the explosion and subsequent mushroom cloud. The volcano sent a plume of ash as high as 12,000 metres, prompting other flight delays after fears the dust would get into the engines.
The partial collapse of the volcano's lava dome is believed to be responsible for the ash cloud. (photo)

PAPUA NEW GUINEA - A task force has been set up to find permanent homes for thousands of Papua New Guineans affected by a series of volcanic explosions. Around 15,000 people fled their homes on Manam Island off PNG's north coast after a series of volcanic explosions in late 2004. They have been wallowing in temporary care centres on the mainland ever since, but their presence has angered local villagers. Tension regularly explodes into violence and earlier this month one person was murdered and a mob destroyed 160 homes at one of the care centres.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone IMANI was 1123 nmi SE of Diego Garcia.
Tropical depression OMAIS was 570 nmi SSE of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

AUSTRALIA - A "disorganised low" in the Arafura Sea off the Northern Terrority could form into a cyclone and move towards the Gulf of Carpentaria, northwest of Cairns. The bureau's latest cyclone outlook notes there is a small chance, or up to 20 per cent possibility. By Sunday, there is up to a 50 per cent chance a cyclone will form in that region. "By mid next week, it could swing around and head towards the Gulf. We are expecting it to track west and intensify over the weekend and in the short-term it is unlikely to head towards the Gulf." The low was currently over warm water and surface winds were ideal for the formation of a cyclone. "Right now it's disorganised. There are a clump of thunder storms with gaps between them and at this stage it is not spinning on a particular axis."


HEALTH THREATS -

Masks and N-95s performed equally in study - An observational study of health workers at a Singapore hospital suggests that surgical masks were as effective as N-95 respirators against pandemic H1N1 infections. For one month last summer workers wore N-95s in emergency and isolation areas, and the following month they wore surgical masks. Few workers got sick, and all transmission occurred outside the hospital. The CDC recommends N-95s for health workers caring for H1N1 patients.

Does 'man flu' really exist? - Men may have a weaker immune system and could be more vulnerable to so-called 'man flu', scientists propose. Their theory suggests there is a trade-off between a strong immune system and reproductive success. Previous experiments have found differences in the ability of females and males to deal with infection. Across a range of animal species, males tend to be the 'weaker sex' in terms of immune defences. This is usually explained by the difference in hormones.
But a leading flu expert says there is no difference in men's immunity. His team at the University of London deliberately infected men and women with the flu virus. He says there was no noticeable difference between their recovery times or their immunity. "But the women did complain more."

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Just the quakes today.


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.5 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.1 OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
6.1 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES

Yesterday -
3/24/10 -
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS
5.2 TONGA REGION
5.1 TONGA
5.0 EASTERN TURKEY
5.0 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.6 XIZANG-QINGHAI BORDER REGION
5.6 XIZANG-QINGHAI BORDER REGION

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

The fly that doesn't want to be swatted is most secure when it lights on the fly-swatter.
G.C. Lichtenberg


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.6 XIZANG-QINGHAI BORDER REGION
5.6 XIZANG-QINGHAI BORDER REGION

Yesterday -
3/23/10 -
5.2 NEAR COAST OF SOUTHERN PERU
5.3 NEAR ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.0 VANUATU
5.3 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.1 OFF COAST OF O'HIGGINS, CHILE
5.0 OFF COAST OF AISEN, CHILE

Experts Predict Second Iceland Earthquake - Last Saturday, lava and ash shot from a volcano in southern Iceland. The Eyjafjallajokull volcano eruption in Iceland is a RARE occurrence. The last time it happened was about 200 years ago. But when Eyjafjallajokull erupts, it is usually followed by a volcanic eruption at Katla. The problem with an eruption at Katla, is that the Katla volcano is under an enormous Ice Cap. If it erupts, it could cause disastrous flooding for both Iceland and neighboring nations. "From records, we know that every time Eyjafjallajokull erupts, Katla has also erupted."
In 1783, a volcanic eruption in Iceland is said to have caused a change in the weather pattern. When gases were released into the air, they froze, created smog, and drifted across the globe in the jet stream. The volcano is blamed for famine, for killing crops, for killing people with gas poisoning. Some even blame the Laki volcano eruption for the cold winter experienced in the United States in 1784 that froze the Mississippi near New Orleans.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical storm 02W was 575 nmi WSW of Agana, Guam.
Cyclone IMANI was 972 nmi ESE of Diego Garcia.

The first cyclone to enter Philippine territory this year will have little effect on the country and is not likely to last long, state weather forecasters have said. The cyclone was expected to enter Philippine territory at 8 a.m. today. It is moving northwest and may change its direction, or dissolve if it gets near the ridge of a high pressure area in Northern Luzon. The tropical depression, to be code-named “Agaton" upon entering Philippine territory, was at 1,050 km east of Visayas as of 2 a.m. Wednesday. It packed maximum sustained winds of 55 kph and was moving at 26 kph northwest.

SANDSTORMS -
CHINA - Beijing residents awakened Monday to skies the eerie yellow color of a street lamp. It was the second time in three days that the Chinese capital had been scoured by sandstorms that have hit 16 provinces across west, central and north China, affecting nearly one-fifth of the country's 1.3 billion people. Tiananmen Square was filled with choking whirlwinds, cars and bicycles were coated in a thin layer of wheat-colored dust, flights were delayed and on March 20 the air pollution index reached 500 - THE WORST LEVEL POSSIBLE - due to the high level of particulates in the air. A day later, several cities in eastern China including Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou and Hangzhou reported similarly bad air quality. Hong Kong and Taiwan also reported dangerously high levels of pollution.
"What has lead to the floating dust in Beijing is what we call a 'Mongolian cyclone,' a whirlwind caused by low atmospheric pressure. The center of the Mongolian cyclone is usually 800 to 1,000 kilometers to the northwest of Beijing, a vast desert region covering southern Mongolia and northwestern Inner Mongolia. The cyclone draws sand and dust particles into high altitudes and together with a strong north wind, it brings sand grains to nearby areas, and smaller dust particles further south." Springtime sandstorms are common in China, as Siberian winds blow dust and sand off the Gobi desert across east Asia - sometimes as far as North America. But the size of the storm that began Saturday has surpassed what China's capital has seen recently.
While northern China has been battered by sandstorms this spring, traditionally soggier south China has been battling drought. Drought-stricken villages in Yunnan province have received half the usual rainfall. Sixteen million people in the region are now suffering drinking water shortages.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

AFGHANISTAN - At least 35 people were killed in an avalanche in a remote area of northern Afghanistan two weeks ago. An avalanche swept through five civilian houses in Arghanj Khowa district in the village of Dood Daood. There could be more bodies still in the snow. An estimated 500 cattle and other animals were also killed. Arghanj Khowa district is about 50km (30 miles) south of the Tajikistan border. The harsh weather and remoteness of the far northern province of Badakhshan meant local people had had to travel for days to get help. Rescue workers took four days to get to the scene. In February, at least 171 people died in an avalanche at the 3,800m-high (12,700ft) Salang Pass.

HEALTH THREATS -
Reports from clinics and hospitals of rising flu-like illnesses over the past few weeks prompted Louisiana health officials to launch walk-in pandemic H1N1 flu vaccine clinics throughout the state this week. Louisiana's state health officer warned in a press release that another wave of infections could occur and urged residents to get vaccinated. The department also noted that other southern states, including the border states of Arkansas and Texas, were seeing rises in flu activity.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

One man's quiet is another man's din.
Carrie Latet


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.1 OFF COAST OF O'HIGGINS, CHILE
5.0 OFF COAST OF AISEN, CHILE

Yesterday -
3/22/10 -
5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.9 LUZON, PHILIPPINES
5.0 VANUATU
5.2 SOUTHEAST OF EASTER ISLAND
5.1 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTHERN PERU

OKLAHOMA - The U.S. Geological Survey recorded three earthquakes in central Oklahoma in a span of less than seven hours. A 3.7 magnitude quake was recorded near Prague in Lincoln County about 9:35 p.m. Sunday. That was followed by a 2.7 magnitude quake in the same area about 3:20 a.m. Monday and a 2.8 magnitude quake in the area just after 4:15 Monday morning. No injuries or damage are reported. People as far away as Tulsa and Claremore reported feeling the 3.7 quake.

VOLCANOES -

ICELAND - A volcano spouting lava in the south of Iceland showed signs of increased activity on Monday, leading scientists to warn it could trigger a far more powerful eruption at a nearby geological hotspot. The eruption near the Eyjafjallajokull glacier, which began shortly before midnight on Saturday, sent steam 4 kilometres up in the air and is gradually intensifying. Another scientist said he was concerned the activity could cause an eruption at Mount Katla, an "enormously powerful" volcano lying under a glacier nearby. "Eyjafjallajokull hardly makes a move without Mount Katla wanting to get in on the action. It is therefore of utmost importance to watch events carefully."
An eruption at Mount Katla could melt huge amounts of ice and cause massive floods, potentially affecting a town of 300 people nearby. Three previous eruptions at Eyjafjallajokull have triggered eruptions at Mount Katla. On Sunday, rescue teams evacuated 500 people from the rural area around the volcano and police declared a local state of emergency. International flights were diverted because of the risk of interference from ash clouds. Iceland sits on a volcanic hotspot in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and has relatively frequent eruptions, though most occur in sparsely populated areas and pose little danger to people or property. The last eruption in Iceland took place in 2004.
There are volcanic eruptions in Iceland every three years on average. The fiercest eruption that has occurred in Iceland in historic times is the 1783-1758 eruption in Lakagígar. Approximately 80 percent of all sheep and 50 percent of horses and cattle died due to fluorine poisoning and at least every fifth Icelander, around 10,000 people, died from hunger. Ash was carried to the European mainland and other continents — thousands died from poisoning in the British Isles. The climate cooled which caused famine in many countries, including France. So the Lakagígar eruption is believed to have helped fuel the French Revolution in 1789.
Two photos.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression 02W was 369 nmi SW of Agana, Guam.
Cyclone TWENTYONE was 1920 nmi WNW of Perth, Australia.

The first western Pacific tropical storm of the year could develop in the upcoming days. A cluster of thunderstorms organized into a tropical depression (02W) east of the Philippines on Sunday. As it develops, it will take a track toward the Philippines. It is not expected to become very strong, but it still poses a threat to the central and northern Philippines later this week. It is not unusual to see tropical storms develop this early in the year. The Western Pacific Basin is the most prolific tropical basin in the world. On average, 31 tropical storms develop every year, nearly double any other basin on Earth. (map)

Tropical hurricanes may begin to reach continental Europe’s western shores in 30 to 50 years, said the chief scientist at Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurer. There have been two hurricanes in the eastern Atlantic off the coasts of Portugal, Spain and France just in the past five years. “This is a wake-up call for Europe. The areas most affected will obviously be those on the western coasts, including Spain and Portugal.”
Hurricane Vince, which formed in 2005 over the northeast Atlantic near Portugal’s Azores islands in waters considered too cold for a hurricane, was the first to come close to European shores. In October 2005, Tropical Depression Vince became the first ever such weather system to hit Spain. In September 2006, Hurricane Gordon swept through the Azores, before lashing Spain with winds gusting at more than 150 kilometers (93 miles) per hour.
Munich Re and other insurance companies are being hit with more claims as damages from natural catastrophes rise. Costs to clean up after storms and other natural disasters reached a record in 2005 at $180 billion, of which insurers covered about half.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

FLORIDA - Winter killed all of Alachua county's mustard greens, much of other crops. The record-breaking cold winter is officially over, but the effects on area crops and plants still are being felt. Four crops in Alachua County were hit hard by the cold. The county's crop of mustard green crops are a 100 percent loss. Collard greens, strawberries and cabbage in the county each were listed as having a 50 percent loss. Tomato growers in the state lost about 70 percent of their crop, causing shortages at restaurants and higher prices in the stores. The Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services has estimated hundreds of millions of dollars in crop damage statewide. The final figure will depend on how much is replanted and sold as temperatures warm up. Gainesville experienced its second-coldest winter ever, tying the average temperature for the winter of 1962-63 with 52 degrees. The coldest winter recorded in Alachua County was the winter of 1963-64 when the average temperature was 51.7 degrees.

The winter of 2009-10 in Europe will make its way into the history books as being THE HARSHEST WINTER BRITAIN AND WESTERN EUROPE HAS SEEN IN THE LAST 31 YEARS.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Flowers losing scent due to climate change - A rose may stop smelling like a rose. This is the concern of environmentalists as flowers are losing their scent due to climate change and air pollution. And their fragrance may be lost forever. "The aroma producing chemical compounds in flowers dry up faster now compared with before."
Malaysians can no longer rely on nature to heal itself without the help of science. In Sungai Siput, Perak, the farmers failed to get fruits from their orchards. Upon investigation, they discovered that the flowers were no longer pollinating after dust from a hill blast blocked the growth of stigmas. Climate change is also the reason Kuala Lumpur City Hall is increasingly turning to shady trees, because flowers which previously formed the centrepiece of its beautification programme have been wilting fast. City Hall used to spend $635,100 a month to plant and maintain flowers in the city, but the contractor's services were terminated in March last year. The lack of scent is a plausible reason as to why some pollinators are not spreading flower seeds, a pattern caused by the missing "scent trail" with scent tissues burning easily due to global warming.
The only way out is to genetically modify the flowers so that the effects will not be permanent and the future generation will not be robbed of nature's beauty. "The act is almost like producing essential oils. Scientists add on certain chemicals for stronger scent." Scents in flowers last longer in colder climate as plants can hold onto their essential oils longer. "The flowers may still have strong scents in colder climate. But locally, we fear this might be lost forever." With flowers emitting lesser scent, the insects and butterflies are travelling further and longer to get a share of nectar. Birds and insects are heading towards hilly areas and deeper into the jungles where the weather is cooler. The extreme weather change might affect the life span of trees as a result of lighter or heavier rain. "We should look at how trees can be mutated so that they will not be destroyed." The Natural Resources and Environment Deputy Minister said given the extreme climate changes, every country should work together and not in isolation. The decline in global biodiversity and ecosystem services urgently calls for proactive measures. "Both policy-makers and researchers need to work hand in hand to strengthen forest genetics, breeding and conservation."

NEW - A free, searchable research site featuring hundreds of important government documents related to natural disasters and extreme weather.

HEALTH THREATS -

Pandemic flu activity remained at uncharacteristically low levels for week 10 of the season, though the virus is still circulating amid anecdotal reports of increased activity in a few southern U.S. locations.

The Massachusetts Department of Public Health says the state had the nation's highest rates of vaccination against both H1N1 and seasonal flu. The immunization rates in Massachusetts were 36% for H1N1 and 57% for seasonal flu, versus 21% and 37% nationwide.

Limited data point to increasing pandemic flu activity in parts of Central America and the Caribbean. Other hot spots are parts of Southeast Asia and West Africa, including Thailand, Bangladesh, and Ghana. Though flu levels are declining in most of the Northern Hemisphere, influenza B is increasing in some European countries and is dominant in several Asian countries, Iran, Mongolia, and the Russian Federation.

A study of pregnant women treated in intensive care units for pandemic flu in Australia and New Zealand last summer suggests that the risk of critical illness was greater during later pregnancy, when it was about 13 times higher than in nonpregnant young women. Indigenous women and those with chronic conditions such as asthma were at greater risk than other pregnant women.

Monday, March 22, 2010

Think like a man of action, act like a man of thought.
Henri Louis Bergson


LARGEST QUAKES -
5.1 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTHERN PERU

Yesterday -
3/21/10 -
5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.2 VANUATU
5.0 TONGA REGION
5.7 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE

CUBA - A 5.6-magnitude earthquake struck near Guantanamo city in eastern Cuba on Saturday, sending residents fleeing into the streets but there were no casualties. The quake caused cracks in some buildings and some pieces of masonry fell. The quake, which also was felt strongly in Cuba's second city of Santiago de Cuba, was centered 27 miles southwest of Guantanamo at a depth of 14 miles. "It was very big. I was at my computer and suddenly felt the strong shake and we all went into the street." "It was awful. You could feel it pretty strongly. It lasted longer than normal."

VOLCANOES -

ICELAND - The present nature of the eruption does not impose threat to people, livestock, buildings, or roads. A volcanic eruption started in Mt. Eyjafjallajokull glacier in the southwest of Iceland shortly before midnight on Saturday night. About 500 people evacuated the immediate area below the mountain in fear of the area being flooded with melt water from the glacier. All airports within 120 nautical mile radius were immediately closed in accordance with standard safety rules. Eight hundred passengers of Icelandair and Iceland Express scheduled to leave Iceland Sunday morning were delayed and another 500 Icelandair passengers who left Boston, Orlando, and Seattle on Saturday night were redirected to Boston.
The eruption is of a lava-type and is currently limited to a 500-meter-long fissure on the north side of the 1100-meter-high Fimmvorduhals pass. The pass, which lies beteen Mt. Eyjafjallajokull and Mt. Myrdalsjokull, is one of Iceland‘s most popular hiking routes. The new lava field is certain to become a tourist attraction. A volcanic eruption takes place in Iceland every 4-5 years on the average. Mt. Eyjafjallajokull glacier last erupted in 1821.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression 02W was 390 nmi SSW of Agana, Guam.

FIJI - The Weather Office is predicting more cyclones for Fiji as they enter the second last month of the cyclone season. They had predicted 10 cyclone systems forming this season, but the number can be exceeded. "So far we have had 10 tropical cyclones forming in the region. We may be exceeding that number, given that we have another month left. April is left, but during an El- Nino phase there has been noted extensions of the cyclone season beyond April...We never know. This season we may have the cyclone season extended beyond April to May. We may also have cyclones forming in the month of June. July, August and September are the only months when there is no tropical cyclone forming in this part of the world."

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Britain's HOTTEST EVER SUMMER 'is on way'
-
[Here we go again - the Met Office has been predicting a 'Barbecue Summer' every summer for the last 4(?) years now.] Average temperatures in June, July and August are predicted to beat those seen in 1976 – when pavements started melting in the heat. The hottest day is set to come during a two-week heatwave at the beginning of August when temperatures could exceed the record-breaking 38.5˚C (101.3˚F) seen in Kent in 2003. The prediction has come from Positive Weather Solutions – a company which has ‘out-forecast’ the Met Office in the last two years. The government’s forecasting department, which employs 1,800 people, predicted last April that the country was ‘odds on for a barbecue summer’ – but it was a washout. But PWS correctly predicted summer 2009 would have ‘rain and thunderstorms causing concern’. The Met Office then said there was just a one in seven chance of a cold winter, which turned out to be the coldest for 31 years with weeks of snow. PWS correctly said winter could see a White Christmas along with a ‘big freeze’ lasting into March. It says 2010 will be a summer to remember as warm currents in the Pacific Ocean will combine with the effects of the Atlantic’s jet stream weather pattern and the Azores high pressure region. ‘There will be stifling temperatures this summer, making it possibly the warmest UK summer on record began and placing it at least the top three warmest summers recorded.'

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Men are probably nearer the central truth in their superstitions than in their science.
Henry David Thoreau


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
3/20/10 -
5.2 CHIAPAS, MEXICO
5.0 CUBA REGION
5.6 CUBA REGION
5.1 SOUTH OF ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.2 LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
5.0 LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
5.0 BIO-BIO, CHILE
6.5 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
3/19/10 -
5.3 LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
5.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
5.4 OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
5.3 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.2 LAKE BAYKAL REGION, RUSSIA

MYSTERY BOOMS / SKYQUAKES -

KENTUCKY - 3/18/10 - Unexplained 'boom' generates calls to 911 center. Concerned citizens reported hearing a loud boom and feeling possible tremors to the Maysville Emergency 911 Dispatch Center Thursday night. The reports of the unusually loud boom, which apparently caused buildings to shake and windows to rattle, started coming into the dispatch center around 9:25 p.m. About 50 calls came in, most from Mason County, but some were from citizens in Brown County. They immediately checked the National Geological Earthquake Web site, but there were no reports of earthquake activity in the Ohio River Valley region. A similar incident occurred in Pendleton County earlier this week, but that boom and subsequent aftershock were attributed to activity at Black River Mine. Officials from the Kentucky Emergency Management Operation Center will check with local industries and other sources to see if blasting has occurred or what other activities may have caused the booms.

OREGON - 3/16/10 - Two mysterious “booms” reportedly shook Portland. An Air Force spokeswoman from Ft. Lewis/McChord base in Washington state said there were no craft or artillery capable of making booms, sonic or otherwise, in the area that evening.

VOLCANOES -

ICELAND - A volcano in the area of the Eyjafallajoekull glacier in southern Iceland erupted today, forcing more 500 people in its vicinity to evacuate their homes. "We estimate that no one is in danger in the area but we have started an evacuation plan and between 500 and 600 people are being evacuated." The eruption started shortly after midnight and the area's main road has been closed. A volcano in the area last erupted in 1821 and 1823.

INDONESIA - Seventeen of 18 volcanoes in Indonesia are on alert status and emitting toxic gas. The alert status is the second level of a three-level system of warning. The Ibu volcano in West Halmahera is the only one of the 18 volcanoes at the lower No. 3 standby level. Mount Talang in Sumatra and Mount Karangetang in Sulawesi are the most recent volcanos to have their status raised to alert. Other Indonesian volcanoes on alert include Krakatoa, Bromo, Kaba, Anak, Slamet and Lokon. In 1883, Krakatoa erupted in an explosion equivalent to 200 megatons of TNT, about 13,000 times the force of the U.S. bomb that devastated Hiroshima, Japan, during World War II.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone ULUI was 115 nmi SE of Townsville, Australia

Ului was a category three cyclone packing winds of 200km/h when it crossed the coast near Airlie Beach in Australia early this morning. Some residents had a pretty hairy time, especially those on the islands. "Some of the islands have seen airconditioners sucked out of the walls. That's the force of the wind that came through, so I think they've had a pretty scary night." Some homes also lost their roofs. The cyclone, which has since been downgraded to a rain depression, caused severe damage in pockets but it was not a catastrophic event.

FIJI - those worst hit by Cyclone Tomas will have to live on rations for the next few months. Northern parts of the Lau and Lomaiviti island groups have suffered the most devastation, with homes and crops destroyed. Copra and breadfruit plantations in particular will take many months to grow back. People are gradually starting to return to their homes. Meanwhile, the number of fatalities from Cyclone Tomas has increased to three.


EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

CHINA, SOUTH KOREA - Beijing has been shrouded in orange dust as a strong sandstorm blew hundreds of miles from drought-struck northern China to the nation's capital. The authorities have issued a level-five pollution warning and urged people to stay indoors. The storm has already caused havoc in Xinjiang, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Hebei regions and is heading to South Korea. Residents of the South Korean capital, Seoul, as well as those in central and western regions, have been advised to stay indoors.
The storm came from the deserts of Inner Mongolia. Beijing has long-suffered from sandstorms - including a single instance in April 2006 when 300,000 tons of sand poured down on the city, but the storms had become less frequent in recent years. "The situation improved tremendously after [the 2006 storm]." Beijing had only one sandstorm last year. Experts say the storms are, in part, caused by deforestation and the rapid expansion of urban areas in recent decades. The storm was expected to last until Monday.

Friday, March 19, 2010

You never know what is enough, until you know
what is more than enough.
William Blake


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
3/18/10 -
5.0 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.0 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.1 BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.0 OFFSHORE O'HIGGINS, CHILE
5.0 LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
5.1 AISEN, CHILE
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.6 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND
5.1 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.
5.1 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.

CHILE - The high-magnitude earthquake of February 27 in southern Central Chile closed one of the two remaining seismic gaps at the South American plate boundary. The GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences has been monitoring this gap since 2006. The remaining gap in the north of Chile now holds potential for a comparable strong quake. Approximately one-third of the world-wide seismic energy has been discharged during the last century in earthquakes with magnitudes of over 8 along the South American-Pacific plate boundary. The repeat-time between two large earthquakes is shorter here than almost anywhere else on our planet. This last non-ruptured segment of the Earth's crust off the Chilean west coast is in the area around Iquique on the South American Nazca Plate Boundary. A strong quake in this region can have consequences for the global economy: the earthquakes here develop through the subduction of the Pacific-floor under South America. The same process also leads to the formation of ore deposits in the Earth's crust. Thus, the largest copper deposit of the world is to be found on the western boundary of the Central Andes. A strong quake could interrupt or even endanger the global supply of copper and lithium. (photo)

CALIFORNIA - The moderate earthquake that struck the Los Angeles area Tuesday likely occurred a long a fault that could generate a much stronger, major quake in the future. "This is the fault that could eat L.A." Seismologists say the Puente Hills thrust system could touch off earthquakes up to MAGNITUDE 7.5 DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES. Such temblors would prove larger than any in the modern history of the Los Angeles Basin. The Puente Hills fault, which winds through the area's fractured underbelly for about 25 miles - from northern Orange County to Beverly Hills - has generated at least four earthquakes ranging from magnitude 7.2 to 7.5 in the last 11,000 years. "The bad news is that when the Puente Hills thrust fault ruptures in an earthquake, it tends to do so in a very big way." Tuesday's magnitude-4.4 quake struck at 4:04 a.m. and was centered 1 mile east-northeast of Pico Rivera.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone ULUI was 592 nmi ENE of Townsville, Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Ului is expected to become stronger as it approaches the Queensland coast. The cyclone, which was downgraded to category three Wednesday, was expected to re-intensify to category four last night or today, with wind gusts of 230 kilometers to 280 kilometers. The cyclone is expected to hit the Queensland coast between Cardwell and St. Lawrence over the weekend.

HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

HAITI - Second "catastrophe"? Despite billions of US dollars in pledges and an unprecedented humanitarian drive, it is likely too late to avert a second disaster in quake-hit Haiti, a top US aid co-ordinator has warned. Tents and tarpaulins are simply not enough to protect tens of thousands of Haitians from the coming rains and hurricanes, and a new wave of quake survivors could perish in a second "catastrophe".
"Having observed camps on very steep slopes and that you cannot simply relocate hundreds of thousands of people easily, we anticipate that the rainy season will lead, to a certain degree, to another catastrophe that despite the hard work of the international community will be hard to avoid. Deaths, landslides and so forth. What we can do is work with the UN to create shelters that people can find refuge in, but there simply isn't the time." Some 218,000 Haitians are deemed to be in "red camps", those considered at gravest flood risk, and the race is on to find them alternative shelter before the rain and possibly calamitous landslides. There have already been a few nights of torrential downpours in the past week and sustained rains could spell disaster in Port-au-Prince where countless people subsist in wretched conditions perched on treacherous slopes. "Unfortunately, many of the camps are in areas that have no drainage whatsoever and many of the shelters are on slopes that are 20 degrees or steeper."
The 7.0-magnitude earthquake that struck Haiti as dusk fell on January 12 was one of the worst natural disasters of modern times, if not the worst.

A third of U.S. at risk for historic floods this Spring - Weather forecasters issued an urgent message to millions of Americans Wednesday: get ready for potentially historic flooding. From the East, to the upper Midwest, and across the South from Texas to Florida, parts of 35 states could be in danger this Spring.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -
AUSTRALIA - Melbourne's run of warm weather has SMASHED CLIMATE RECORDS, with 100 days in a row over 20C (68 degrees Fahrenheit). The previous longest run was 78 days over summer in 2000 and 2001. And THE NEW RECORD ISN'T STOPPING ANYTIME SOON, with Melbourne's weather forecast to be over 20C for the next week. Accurate and complete records first started in 1855, making this THE LONGEST WARM STRETCH IN MORE THAN 150 YEARS. The last day below 20C was December 8, which hit 19.8. "The world is getting hotter and we're getting more of these hot days."

RUSSIA - The Russian Security Council was due to meet in the Kremlin Wednesday to take up threats posed by global climate change. President Medvedev will preside over the meeting that will focus on action on Russia’s climate doctrine, which was approved in December last year. The Russian leader has repeatedly pointed out that by the year 2020 Russia will have cut down on greenhouse gas discharges by 25% of the 1990 amount, via structural change in the economy. Medvedev is also certain that the Kyoto Protocol should be succeeded by a more legally perfect document to regulate international cooperation.

CANADA - Canadian government 'hiding truth about climate change', report claims. Canada's climate researchers are being muzzled, their funding slashed, research stations closed, findings ignored and advice on the critical issue of the century unsought by Prime Minister Harper's government, according to a 40-page report by a coalition of 60 non-governmental organisations. "This government says they take climate change seriously but they do nothing and try to hide the truth about climate change." Climate change is not an abstract concept. It already results in the deaths of 300,000 people a year, virtually all in the world's poorest countries. Some 325 million people are being seriously affected, with economic losses averaging 125 billion dollars a year. Released last fall by the Geneva-based Global Humanitarian Forum, the report notes that these deaths and losses are not just from the rise in severe weather events but mainly from the gradual environmental degradation due to climate change. "People everywhere deserve to have leaders who find the courage to achieve a solution to this crisis."
Canadians are unlikely to know any of this. "Media coverage of climate change science, our most high-profile issue, has been reduced by over 80 percent," says internal government documents obtained by Climate Action Network. The dramatic decline results from a 2007 Harper government-imposed prohibition on government scientists speaking to reporters. While climate experts were being muzzled, known climate change deniers were put in key positions on scientific funding bodies. Last week, scientists who study climate change from a remote polar science research base on Ellesmere Island said they have run out of funding and will shut down this year. Earlier this month, the new federal budget failed to provide any funding for Canada's main climate science initiative, the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmosphere Sciences. Funding everything from global climate models, to the melting of polar ice and frequency of Arctic storms, to droughts and water supply, the foundation will run out of cash early next year. Previous governments have always consulted with scientists prior to funding and policy decisions related to science, but the current government does not even consult its own scientists. "Almost all of the money this government claims is climate change work is about getting more oil out of the ground. Canadian climate science is falling behind and the world is not getting information about what is happening in the Canadian Arctic." The Harper government sees climate change as a communications problem and is eliminating government-funded climate research so there won't be any "bad news" about what is happening. "This government is doing nothing on climate but they always make sure to sound like they're doing something to fool Canadians."

SPACE WEATHER -

Astronomers have discovered that a star is on course to collide with the outskirts of our solar system with potentially catastrophic consequences. The good news is that the star is not expected to arrive for a million or more years. New calculations show that the orange dwarf, called Gliese 710, will crash through the Oort Cloud that surrounds the Sun. The disruption to this shell of many billions of icy fragments would launch a shower of comets into the inner solar system, threatening the planets with devastating impacts. Some believe it could lead to a repeat of the Late Heavy Bombardment that left the Moon covered with craters around 4 billion years ago. The threat from Gliese 710, a star with about half the mass of the sun, 63 light-years away in the constellation of the Serpent, is rated as 86 per cent likely. That is nearly as good as a certainty. Some astronomers are suggesting that Gliese 710 might be circled by its own Oort Cloud, which could produce a double shower of hazardous comets.
The new alert comes days after a NASA astrobiology site reported that an invisible brown dwarf star nicknamed Nemesis may be circling the sun and causing mass extinctions of life on Earth every 26 million years. There are hopes that if Nemesis exists, it will be detected by NASA's heat-sensitive Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer satellite, WISE, which is currently scanning the sky for brown dwarfs.

A CME that was supposed to hit Earth's magnetic field on March 18th didn't. Either it missed, or the cloud is approaching so slowly that the ultimate impact could be negligible.

HEALTH THREATS -

Many lower-risk people got first H1N1 shots - An investigation by the Associated Press using government documents tendered under the Freedom of Information Act reveals that, though the first wave of H1N1 shots were designated for high-risk groups, many were diverted to lower-risk healthy adults in firms, refineries, jails, and other sites. Last fall, as swine flu cases mounted and parents desperately sought to protect their kids, the hard-to-get vaccine was handed out in some surprising places: the Royal Caribbean cruise line, the headquarters of drug giant Merck, the Johnson Space Center and a Department of Energy office in Idaho. In some cases, financial institutions and other recipients got doses before some county health departments and doctors' offices. Also, even though the federal government spent more than $1.6 billion to manufacture and distribute the vaccine, there is no complete record of where it went. That's "a big deal" — the absence of complete data makes it hard to spot waste and other problems.

Hong Kong is detecting rising numbers of flu cases during its traditional flu-season peak, with half the isolates turning out to be H1N1 pandemic flu. The remainder of isolates are influenza B, not other seasonal influenza A strains. The centre said that it recorded 268 new flu cases last week, compared with 177 the week before, and added that visits to doctors for flu-like illnesses are rising.

Blood may transmit H1N1 - the blood service of the Japanese Red Cross Society has expressed concern that blood transfusion may transmit pandemic H1N1 flu. Forty out of 96 people who gave blood last fall were diagnosed with H1N1 within 2 days of donation. Testing of retained segments did not reveal H1N1 nucleic acids; the researchers say flu viremia may be too brief to be detectable.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Many men go fishing all of their lives
without knowing that it is not fish they are after.
Henry David Thoreau

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.1 LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
5.1 BIO-BIO, CHILE

Yesterday -
3/17/10 -
5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.2 AISEN, CHILE
5.1 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.1 SOUTH OF TONGA

TROPICAL STORMS -
Cyclone TOMAS was 803 nmi NE of Auckland, New Zealand.
Cyclone ULUI was 688 nmi ENE of Townsville, Australia.

A damage assessment after cyclone Tomas hit Wallis and Futuna shows that 80 percent of the crops on Futuna have been destroyed. On Wallis half the crops were destroyed when weekend winds of 200 kilometres an hour swept across the territory. Many homes have been damaged or flooded and half the schools have been damaged. The road on the northern side of Futuna has been washed away.

AUSTRALIAN authorities are evacuating two islands (Heron Island and Lady Elliott Island) off the central Queensland coast as a category four cyclone approaches the region. Tropical Cyclone Ului is expected to make landfall this weekend between Bowen and Gladstone. The cyclone is about 1,200 kilometres north-east of Mackay in north Queensland and 1,400 kilometres east of Cooktown in the state's far north. "With the islands, you need to do it early rather than later, because the seas get so rough quite quickly. It's better to do it early just in case, then they're not left there if the seas get too rough." Modelling is showing Ului will make landfall in central Queensland, possibly as a category three or four system. "It will be accompanied by extreme sort of winds and rainfall." There is a chance the cyclone could reintensify into a category five over the next day or so. "It's likely to be more like a category three, but I think be prepared for a severe tropical cyclone at this stage." It is difficult to know what the system will do and when it will cross the coast. "It could be as early as late Saturday night - that's the earliest model. The latest model is somewhere around Tuesday, so basically that's the spread in time. As far as what section of the coast, there's still a spread anywhere from the north tropical coast to no further south than the St Lawrence area."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

BRITAIN - It is more like January than March. The trees are bare, and there are precious few signs of spring flowers. Woodland Trust researchers have uncovered "striking evidence" that common spring flowering plants are coming into bloom much later than would be expected. They have had weeks of hard, white frosts and, despite the warmer weather, the soil in many parts of the country is still rock solid. The average UK flowering date of blackthorn is mid-March, and they would have expected around 1,000 sightings by now from their volunteers. So far, they have only received a handful of reports. "At this time of year, woodlands like this should be full of the signs of Spring". "The trees will just bide their time until the soil warms up...But it could have an effect on the insects that live on the flowers, and the birds that feed on those insects." Experts say it is too early to tell what the effect this late spring will have on the natural world.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Cold US winter offset by above-normal global temps - The 2009-10 winter (December through February) was colder than average across the U.S., but global temperatures were warmer than average during the winter. What that may - or may not - mean about global warming is a matter of opinion.
In February, across the U.S. and parts of Europe (especially Eastern Europe), temepratures were more than 4 degrees Celsius (more than 7 degrees Fahrenheit) colder than average. On the other hand, temperatures across much of Canada and the Arctic region were more than 4 degrees Celsius warmer than average. In addition, much of the Southern Hemisphere, during its summer, was warmer than average. Overall, it was warmer than the long-term average across the globe. Although the details were different, it was the same story during December and January. (temperature map)

HEALTH THREATS -

A review of 11 studies on the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions in containing flu found that "the data provide some evidence that face masks, hand hygiene, cough etiquette, reduced crowding, and school closures are effective in reducing the spread of influenza." The studies, however, had several limitations, including insufficient statistical power due to small sample size. The authors call for rigorous laboratory- and community-based studies to improve data collection.

RECALLS & ALERTS:
A pile of recalls due to the salmonella possibility in the vegetable protein additive and in some spices:
-Spice Barn is recalling two lots of Black Pepper
-H. Guenther & Son, Inc. recall of products (Sunbird Seasonings, Williams Wings Seasonings and Williams Gumbo Soup lines) containing a pepper ingredient
-Mincing Overseas Spice Company, Dayton, New Jersey, Frontier Natural Products Co-op, is recalling several of its products manufactured with non-organic black pepper that were sold under the Frontier brand and under the Whole Foods Market brands
-Spice Industrial Group INC., of City of Industry, Ca is recalling Lian How White Sesame Seeds
-Julia's Spices, of City of Industry, Ca is recalling Hulled Sesame Seeds
-Olde Westport Spice is recalling Garden Harvest Special Blend Seasoning
-McCormick & Company, Incorporated is expanding a March 5, 2010 recall to include additional "Best By" dates of products manufactured with HVP (hydrolyzed vegetable protein) supplied by Basic Food Flavors
-GFN Foods, LLC of Cranford, NJ is recalling: Gluten-Free Naturals Pancake Mix , Gluten-Free Naturals Light & Moist Yellow Cake Mix, Gluten-Free Naturals Cookie Blend Flour
-Emmi - Roth Kaese USA is recalling Spreadables brand Crab Creole and Shrimp Scampi cheese spreads
-Tastefully Simple is recalling Toasted Garlic & Parmesan Cheese Ball Mix
-Austinuts of Dallas, Inc. has issued a voluntary recall for Honey Mustard Pretzels
-Orval Kent is recalling multiple dips
-Mrs. Gerry's Kitchen, Inc. of Albert Lea, MN has been notified by a supplier that a certain seasoning ingredient contains hydrolyzed vegetable protein (HVP) that may be contaminated
-Ventura Foods, LLC is recalling seven of its Dean's(R) Dip products
-Kroger Co. is recalling Kroger Onion Soup & Dip Mix and Kroger Beefy Onion Soup & Dip Mix
-Quaker Snack Mix Baked Cheddar is being recalled
-Publix Super Markets is issuing a voluntary recall for four varieties of seasoning mixes.