Tuesday, July 31, 2012

It's likely that there will be no update on Wednesday.

**Being angry and resentful of someone
is like letting them live rent-free in your head.**
George Foreman


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
7/30/12 -
5.0 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA

Japan - The death toll from last year's earthquake and tsunami was high enough to reduce average life expectancy in Japan. Japanese women are no longer the world's longest living, their longevity pushed down in part by last year's devastating earthquake and tsunami. The top of the global life expectancy rankings now belongs to Hong Kong.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Volcano activity of July 29, 2012 - In Guatemala, volcanic tremor is again evident on seismograms from Pacaya volcano, while much stronger tremor at nearby Fuego volcano suggests enhanced eruptive activity there.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
- Tropical storm 10w (Saola) was located approximately 285 nm south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan
- Tropical storm 11w (Damrey) was located approximately 205 nm north-northwest of Iwo-to, Japan.

Philippines - Typhoon Saola ["Gener"] dumped torrents of rain as it swept past the Philippines, killing at least seven people and displacing more than 20,000. The wild weather whipped up by Typhoon Saola as it roared off the country's northeast was compounded by a separate low-pressure area that lashed the capital with tornado-like winds and powerful thunderstorms late on Sunday and early on Monday. Many parts of Manila and outlying provinces were without power and low-lying areas were flooded.
Initially a tropical storm, Saola strengthened late on Monday into a typhoon with sustained winds of 120km/h and gusts of 150km/h. The howler is expected to blow towards Taiwan later this week. Seven people died in the storm and several others are missing. One of the men who died had an asthma attack while he and about 100 other people were being rescued from a ferry that ran aground, caught fire then sank in rough seas late Sunday off central Romblon province. In Manila, two barges that drifted off a pier smashed into wooden shanties on stilts in the city's Tondo slum, destroying dozens of huts but causing no injuries.
More than 40,000 people were battered by the flooding and pounding rain in the capital and seven provinces, half of whom fled from their inundated homes into government evacuation centres and houses of relatives. Saola is the seventh of 20 typhoons and storms expected to hit the Philippines this year. The storm will have its greatest impact on Taiwan on Wednesday and Thursday.

If no Atlantic tropical cyclone develops before August 1 , this will be the first July since 2009 with no July Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

North Korea - Flooding has left large swathes of land submerged and people were wading through thigh-high water or taking refuge on rooftops. The week-long flood earlier in July left 88 dead, injured 134, and made almost 63,000 people homeless. More than 30,000 hectares of crops were washed away or submerged, with roads and factories destroyed. On Sunday state media reported strong winds and heavy rain were battering parts of the country, including the capital Pyongyang. The official news agency predicted that "most regions will face huge damage".
The flooding represents a challenge for the new leader of a country which has grappled with severe food shortages since a famine in the 1990s killed hundreds of thousands. Following a visit to the country, UN agencies estimated last November that three million people would need food aid this year. Widespread deforestation, to collect firewood or clear land for agriculture, has made the impoverished nation increasingly prone to serious flooding which disrupts agriculture.

U.S. - New York was just one of 15 states that were impacted by severe weather last Thursday. A line of severe storm covered an UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA extending more than 1500 miles in length from Texas to Connecticut. Widespread damage was left behind across the city of Elmira, N.Y. on Thursday by a strong, long-tracked tornado. The EF-1 tornado had winds from 105 to 110 mph.

Monday, July 30, 2012

Geomagnetic storm warning - NOAA forecasters estimated a 45% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on July 29-30 in response to a high-speed solar wind stream buffeting Earth's magnetic field. Even stronger storming could occur on July 31st when a CME associated with Saturday's M6-flare arrives. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.
Solar activity is picking up. Sunspot AR1532 is crackling with M-class solar flares. The latest, an M6-class eruption on July 28th (2056 UT), produced a bright flash of extreme ultraviolet radiation. Contrary to earlier reports, this explosion did produce a CME and the cloud is heading for Earth. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will reach our planet on July 31st at 1500 UT (+/- 7 hours).

A family medical crisis on Thursday made me rush out of town, but I'm happy to say that things are stable and okay. Sorry for no notice that there would be no updates.

**Change will not come if we wait
for some other person or some other time.
WE are the ones we've been waiting for.
WE are the change that we seek.
Barack Obama


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.
Small cluster of quakes in the DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE.
Small cluster of quakes in HAWAII.

Yesterday -
7/29/12 -
5.4 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA
5.5 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
5.7 PRIMOR'YE, RUSSIA
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.7 MYANMAR
Cluster of quakes in PUERTO RICO continued early in the day.

7/28/12 -
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
6.7 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 NORTH OF SVALBARD
Cluster of quakes in PUERTO RICO

7/27/12 -
5.0 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.4 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION

7/26/12 -
5.2 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.4 TONGA
5.0 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.8 MAURITIUS - REUNION REGION
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.3 TAJIKISTAN

New Zealand - Quake-stressed dogs lashing out. The number of dog-bite complaints in Christchurch since the quakes is up, with animal experts saying the city's dogs have become more anxious and aggressive.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
- Tropical Storm 10w (Saola), located approximately 355 nm south- southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.
- Tropical storm 11w (Damrey), located approximately 200 nm east-northeast of Iwo-to, Japan.

Thursday, July 26, 2012

US warns drought will push up food prices in 2013 - Food prices are likely to rise in the US next year due to a drought gripping large parts of the Midwest, the US department for agriculture has warned. It forecasted that the price of milk, eggs and meat would all rise above the normal rate of inflation as the dry weather increased animal feed costs. Prices are expected to increase by between 3% and 4% in 2013, with beef prices expected to jump by up to 5%. The drought, which is affecting much of the Midwest, is THE WORST SINCE 1956.
Corn and soybean prices soared recently as fields dried out and crops withered. The pressure on food prices will begin to build later this year. "It's already affecting corn and soybean prices, but then it has to work its way all the way through the system into feed prices and then animal prices, then wholesale prices and then, finally, retail prices." Normal inflation for groceries in the US is about 2.8% per year. The drought is not expected to affect US fruit and vegetable prices as most of these crops are irrigated.
Before the drought hit, this year was forecast to produce a record yield for the corn crop. But, after weeks of hot, dry weather and no rainfall, a total of 1,369 counties in 31 states across the country have now been designated for disaster aid. Two-thirds of the US is now in mild or extreme drought. There are fears that rising prices in the US will have an impact further afield as the country is the world's largest exporter of corn, soybeans and wheat.

**Instead of leading the world by how much we borrow,
it's time that we make sure we lead the world
in how much we build and create and invest.**
Mitt Romney


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
6.7 MAURITIUS - REUNION REGION
5.3 TAJIKISTAN

Yesterday -
7/25/12 -
6.4 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS
6.3 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.0 CATAMARCA, ARGENTINA

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Japan - Sakurajima volcano (Kyushu): stronger and more than usual frequent explosions. Sakurajima volcano continues to be particularly active. The volcano, known for its persistant svulcanian type eruptions, typically 1-2 per day, has been having more than usual frequent and stronger explosions during the past months.
A powerful eruption occurred Tuesday evening. The explosion occurred not from the normally active Showa-dake crater, but the less frequently active Minami-dake crater, and the explosion showered the flanks of the volcano with hundreds of blocks up to considerable distance. An ash column could be seen rising several kilometers. Wednesday, several explosions occurred as well with ash plumes reported up to 10,000 ft (ca. 3 km) altitude.
Video

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

Tropical Storm Khanun leaves 16,000 homeless in North Korea - Khanun became a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 40 miles (64 kilometers) per hour on July 16 as it was centered far east of the Ryukyu Islands. It then moved to the northwest, passing north of the Kadena Air Base on the islands.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Greenland Ice sheet melted in 4 days - "We got some reports that there was melt going on all around Greenland, literally like so much water running off that it was washing out bridges and things, that there were runways that were on the snow that were having problems. And so what we did was look at the satellite records, which are great because they cover the whole ice sheet. And what we found pretty quickly was that it had melted, and it had melted in places that we had never seen melt before." It's unusual, but this is not unprecedented.
The top parts of the Greenland ice sheet are 12,000 feet above sea level. "It's very, very cold there. It's never above freezing. And what happened was, we had temperatures go up to almost 42 degrees in places. When we look back, though, kind of in deep time, which we can get from ice cores around Greenland, we found out melting like this probably does happen maybe about on average every 150 years. So, this is REALLY UNUSUAL. Maybe the last time it happened was 1889."
"Well, the simplest explanation is this, we had some pockets of warm air really form around Greenland that literally washed up over the entire ice sheet. And a lot of that is related. If you look at -- there are some indices people use to describe the state of the atmosphere. One of them is the North Atlantic oscillation. And this year, that happened to have a really strong high-pressure system formed over Iceland that allowed this warm air sit around and move over Greenland."
Basically you're talking about the weather. " Yes, and that is one way to thing about it. Climate is sort of long-term weather. But short term, you can get extreme variations. And we're seeing an extreme variation in Greenland." So, you can't really attribute this to climate change. "And that's one of the things. We spent a long time trying to word the document that we put out describing it. And we said, look, there is evidence that this has happened before. Now, that doesn't mean -- WE REALLY DON'T KNOW THE EXPLANATION FOR THIS ONE. If it happens again, if it starts to happen repeatedly, then we have an indication that there might be a real shift going on in the Arctic system there...High on the Greenland ice sheet, the instruments that we have there are saying that things are cooling off already." So they're starting to refreeze. But at the lower elevations, it's still really warm.
"The Greenland ice sheet has been losing tremendous amounts of ice for decades, on average 150 gigatons a year. You're talking so much ice that this is contributing about 0.3 millimeters of sea level rise a year around the globe." It's about three millimeters a year sea level rise overall. "But the problem, too, with Greenland is that it looks like it's been accelerating in recent years. And so depending on what time range you look at it, now it could be contributing a half-a-millimeter, maybe even more."
This year in the Arctic, " we're losing sea ice overall. We're down close to another record year. And we're probably at a record year. The sea ice is thinner now than it's ever been. We're seeing warming going around all around in the Arctic. Permafrost is thawing and those kinds of things. So it really does look like the Arctic has shifted in state."
Time-lapse satellite images of Greenland ice melt

A rift in the Antarctic rock as deep as the Grand Canyon is increasing ice melt from the continent, researchers say. A team found the Ferrigno rift using ice-penetrating radar, and showed it to be about 1.5km (1 mile) deep. Antarctica is home to a geological rift system where new crust is being formed, meaning the eastern and western halves of the continent are slowly separating. The canyon is bringing more warm sea water to the ice sheet, hastening melt.
The Ferrigno rift lies close to the Pine Island Glacier where Nasa scientists found a giant crack last year; but the newly discovered feature is not thought to be influencing the "Pig", as it is known. The rift lies beneath the Ferrigno Ice Stream on a stretch of coast so remote that it has only been visited once previously. "What we found is that lying beneath the ice there is a large valley, parts of which are approximately a mile deeper than the surrounding landscape. If you stripped away all of the ice here today, you'd see a feature every bit as dramatic as the huge rift valleys you see in Africa and in size as significant as the [US] Grand Canyon. This is at odds with the flat ice surface that we were driving across - without these measurements we would never have known it was there."
The Ferrigno rift extends into a seabed trough, called Belgica. The scientists suggest that during Ice Ages, when sea levels were much lower than at present, the rift would have channelled a major ice stream through the trough. Now, they suggest, the roles are reversed, with the walls of the Belgica trough channelling relatively warm sea water back to the ice edge. The nearby Pine Island Glacier appears set to calve a 900 sq km iceberg Penetrating between the Antarctic bedrock and the ice that lies on it and lubricating the join, the water allows ice to flow faster into the sea.
"We know that the ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is governed by delivery of warm water, and that the warm water is coming along channels that were previously scoured by glaciers. So the geology and the present rate of ice loss are intricately linked, and they feed back - if you have fast-flowing ice, that delivers ice to the edge where it can be impacted by warm water, and warm water makes the ice flow faster." The team doubts there would be more such features around the West Antarctic coast, though in the remoter still regions of the east, it is a possibility.
Ice loss from West Antarctica is believed to contribute about 10% to global sea level rise. But how the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets respond to warmer temperatures is the biggest unknown by far in trying to predict how fast the waters will rise over the coming century and beyond. A total melt of either sheet would raise sea levels globally by several metres.
East Antarctica, by contrast, is so cold that the ice is projected to remain solid for centuries. "Since the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report [in 2007], which highlighted uncertainties connected with ice sheets, almost every significant piece of research we've produced has increased the significance of the ocean for West Antarctica and Greenland. There are changes in precipitation now and in future; but the really big, potentially fast, changes are connected to the oceans, and the goal for us is to model that system."

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Indonesia - A powerful earthquake jolted western Indonesia early today, killing a man and sending panicked residents fleeing from homes in towns and villages across Sumatra island's northern tip. No tsunami was generated and there were no reports of damage. The magnitude 6.6 [6.4] quake hit about 7:30 a.m. (0030 GMT) and was centered 28 kilometers (17 miles) northwest of Aceh province's Sinabang town at a depth of 45 kilometers (28 miles). A quake that close to the coast would have to be more powerful to generate a giant wave.
"A few seconds strong earthquake shook everything around us. Everybody ran out from homes ... many screaming in panic, but there was no damage around us." The panic extended to several towns and villages in Aceh's neighboring province of North Sumatra. Fearing aftershocks, many refused to go back inside for hours. Indonesia straddles a series of fault lines that makes the vast island nation prone to volcanic and seismic activity.

**Policies never change...
No matter what the crisis is,
we still do more of the same.**
Ron Paul


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.0 CATAMARCA, ARGENTINA
6.4 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA

Yesterday -
7/24/12 -
5.2 WESTERN IRAN

7/23/12 -
5.2 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.1 NEAR ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

Typhoon Vicente lashed Hong Kong with gale winds and heavy rain: STRONGEST TYPHOON TO HIT IN 10 YEARS. The severe typhoon has hit Hong Kong, disrupting business across the financial hub, with offices and the stock market to remain closed for at least part of the morning after the city raised its highest typhoon warning overnight. Typhoon Vicente battered Hong Kong with gale-force winds and torrential rain, grounding flights and shutting port operations on Tuesday. Authorities raised the No. 10 tropical cyclone signal for several hours overnight, making this one of the strongest typhoons to hit the city in the past decade. "Heavy rain is coming through” the financial hub, and is expected to last “probably for a few days.” Financial markets, schools, businesses and non-essential government services close when a No. 8 signal or above is hoisted, posing a disruption to business.
Separately, China’s National Meteorological Centre issued an orange alert for Typhoon Vicente, the second highest warning level in China’s four-tier typhoon warning system. Strengthening gale-force winds overturned trees, churned up huge waves in Hong Kong’s Victoria Harbour and sent debris flying, injuring some 30 people as Vicente hit the city and the western reaches of China’s Guangdong province.

Three Cambodian fishermen have been killed when their boat capsized due to strong winds and rain caused by Tropical Storm Vincente. .Authorities say the men's bodies were pulled from the Tonle Sap lake on Wednesday in Pursat province, northwest of the capital, Phnom Penh. The men were among seven people fishing in a boat on Tuesday when the storm struck and flipped the boat. Four others were rescued. Cambodian authorities have warned that heavy rains could last through Thursday due to Vincente, which has been downgraded from a typhoon to a tropical storm.

Vietnam - Provinces and cities in the northern region have taken measures to avoid potential floods and landslides caused by Storm Vincente, which is forecast to hit the border area of Cao Bang and Lang Son provinces at 4pm today. The National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said Storm Vincente, after battering the south coast of China, is changing its direction to west-south-west at the speed of 20km per hour. After hitting Cao Bang and Lang Son provinces, it will weaken to a low pressure system.
The northern localities are still forecast to experience heavy downpours of up to 400 mm and strong winds of 39km per hour. The Department of Crop Production yesterday required the departments of agriculture and rural development in the northern region to re-examine and protect areas under rice cultivation.In Ha Noi, the local people's committees were requested to work with the municipal irrigation agencies to draw up anti-flooding plans to protect crops and evacuate residents from areas prone to flash floods.
In northern Phu Tho Province, the committee guided people to inspect local reservoirs and be on-duty around the clock to cope with potential flash floods caused by the storm, especially in the mountainous areas of Thanh Son, Tan Son, Ha Hoa and Cam Khe. An urgent meeting was held in the northern mountainous province of Bac Kan, where the possibility of landslides was high. A water level of 150mm would cause landslides across the whole province.
Currently, about 34,000 ships and vessels out at sea were informed about the development of the storm. Nearly 100 vessels are still in the Hoang Sa (Paracel) Archipelago. Vincente is the fourth storm to hit the East Sea region this year, an area that is expected to have between six and seven tropical low pressures this year.

Philippines - 2nd potential cyclone off Tuguegarao. State weather forecasters on Tuesday hinted at the possibility of two cyclones bringing rain to the country at almost the same time this week, as they tracked two low-pressure areas east of Philippine territory. One of two low-pressure areas (LPAs) now in Philippine territory is moving away from Philippine area of responsibility, though the second remains likely to intensify into a cyclone later this week, state weather forecasters said today. If the LPA intensifies into a tropical cyclone, it will be named “Gener,” the third tropical depression of the month.

Another quiet week in the tropics - It's been nearly a month since Tropical Storm Debby faded off of the weather charts. Ever since, the Atlantic basin has been nice and quiet and should stay that way for much of the week ahead. Some long range computer models suggest a little uptick in activity might begin in another 5 or 6 days. Both the American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) models are projecting a weak tropical disturbance may spin up off of Africa by Thursday or Friday, and then start its long journey across the tropical Atlantic. Both models bring the system to the outer Caribbean islands in about 10 days, but are not bullish on a very strong system. The American model suggests the potential for a tropical depression, while the European keeps it more as a soggy tropical wave.
It's hard to have much faith in what computer models have to say about the details of a tropical system more than 7 days in advance. This is the first tropical blip on the computer models in about 4 weeks.and we'll likely see a few more blips in the weeks to come and the peak of the season is about a month away.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Torrential rains hammer central Nigeria, killing 35. A flood triggered by heavy rains killed at least 35 people. Several other Jos residents remain missing and rescue forces expect the death toll to rise further. The flood waters washed away many homes in the area — often built with mud — leaving some 200 residents displaced. Nigeria is currently experiencing its annual rainy season, which comes with torrential rains that challenge the country’s infrastructure, often leading buildings to collapse and people to drown as many build houses in flood plains.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

UNPRECEDENTED Greenland ice melt observed - Greenland's surface ice cover melted this month over a larger area than ever detected in more than 30 years of satellite observations, NASA says. .According to measurements from three separate satellites analysed by NASA and university scientists, an estimated 97% of the ice sheet surface thawed at some point in mid-July. "This was so extraordinary that at first I questioned the result: was this real or was it due to data error?" Most of Greenland appeared to have undergone surface melting on July 12. Melt maps drawn up showed that on July 8 about 40 per cent of the ice sheet's surface had melted, rising to 97 per cent four days later. The news comes just days after NASA satellite imagery showed that a massive iceberg twice the size of Manhattan had broken off a glacier in Greenland. "This event, combined with other natural but uncommon phenomena, such as the large calving event last week on Petermann Glacier, are part of a complex story."
In the summer, on average, about half of the surface of Greenland's ice sheet melts naturally. Normally, most of that melt water quickly refreezes at high elevations, while in coastal regions some of it is retained by the ice sheet while the rest flows into the ocean. "But this year the extent of the ice melting at or near the surface jumped dramatically." Researchers have yet to determine whether the melt, which coincided with an unusually strong ridge of warm air over Greenland, will contribute to a rise in sea level.
Even the area near the highest point of the ice sheet, located three kilometres above sea level, showed signs of melting. Melting incidents of this type OCCUR EVERY 150 YEARS ON AVERAGE. "With the last one happening in 1889, this event is right on time. But if we continue to observe melting events like this in upcoming years, it will be worrisome."

Monday, July 23, 2012

No update on Tuesday.


**The American people are the rightful masters
of both Congress and the courts,
the people have the right,
not to overthrow the Constitution,
but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution.**
Abraham Lincoln


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.2 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA

Yesterday -
7/22/12 -
5.0 NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA
5.3 TONGA
5.4 BISMARCK SEA
5.4 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.2 MYANMAR

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Pacific -
Tropical storm 09w (Vicente) was located approximately 150 nm south- southeast of Hong Kong.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

China - More storms set to hit southwest of China. The China Meteorological Administration forecast 100 to 160 millimeters of rain to fall on Sichuan and Yunnan provinces before Thursday. Tropical storm Vincente will arrive in Guangdong and Hainan provinces today or Tuesday.
China - Beijing floods death toll now 37. The freak storm in China's capital killed at least 37 people over the weekend, sparking anger and questions over poor infrastructure in the country.
460mm (18.1 in) fell in Beijing's Fangshan district, with the capital as a whole averaging 170mm. About 1.9m people have been affected by the downpour, and flood and economic losses had been estimated at 10bn yuan ($1.5bn, £960m). By Sunday evening, more than 65,000 people had to be evacuated. "There could be further large-scale storms or extreme weather," the Beijing city government's website said.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Forest fires raging in Spain's north-eastern Catalonia region have left three people dead. Two French nationals, a father and daughter, drowned in the sea close to the border with France while trying to escape the flames. Strong winds gusting up to 90km/h (55mph) have rendered one fire "out of control." All residents of the county of Alt Emporda - about 135,000 people - have been ordered to stay indoors. The area is a main link for holidaymakers travelling to and from southern France. Traffic on the cross-border AP-7 motorway was reported to have been severely disrupted on Sunday.
The two French victims were among several people who were trapped by fire as they travelled along the N-260 main coastal road near the town of Portbou and tried to reach the sea by climbing down cliffs. A 75-year-old man died after suffering a cardiac arrest in Llers, north-west of the area's main town, Figueres. At least another 19 people have been wounded, including a French national who suffered burns on 80% of his body when he was caught in his car by the flames.
The fire near Portbou has been brought under control,while a much larger blaze further inland, around the border town of La Jonquera, was still spreading late on Sunday. The fire, travelling at about 5-6km/h, came within 10km of Figueres. A total of about 13,000 hectares (32,000 acres) of forest are estimated to have been devastated in the area.

For many in the U.S., the heat and dry weather are starting to wane. It's been a hot July so far nationwide. The good news is that temperatures have started to moderate in many areas; forecasts indicate that this trend is set to continue.
The bad news - The extreme hot and dry weather in the US, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan has spiked corn, wheat and soybean prices as the countries reduce their expected crop harvest forecasts. The US is facing one of the worst droughts in years.

Sunday, July 22, 2012

**The playing adult steps sideward
into another reality."
Erik Erikson


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.4 BISMARCK SEA
5.4 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.2 MYANMAR

Yesterday -
7/21/12 -
5.3 BANDA SEA
5.9 VANUATU REGION
5.3 OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
5.8 OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z.
5.1 OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

7/20/12 -
5.0 KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
5.3 FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
5.1 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
5.6 FIJI REGION
5.0 JIANGSU, CHINA
5.0 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
6.3 KURIL ISLANDS
6.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.3 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS

Louisiana - Could earthquakes be the cause of bubbling bayou? Scientists descending on northern Assumption Parish over the past several weeks have been unable to explain two phenomena that may or may not be related. The water in parts of Bayou Corne and Grand Bayou has been inexplicably bubbling, and scientists said they have also been picking up earthquakes in the area. “Although they seem to be related somewhat in time and space, it may be happenstance."
Seismometers have picked up an average of 10 tremors a day since they installed four of the instruments underground Thursday. They started monitoring the area after residents reported feeling the ground shaking. They have been unable to pinpoint where the tremors originated, so they can't say for sure what their magnitudes are. However, they “almost certainly” have a magnitude less than 4.2 because greater magnitudes are felt over a much larger area. The tremors that people felt would “probably” have magnitudes above 2 or 2.5 because lesser magnitudes are often imperceptible. They are in the beginning stages of researching the matter and can not say what the cause of the earthquakes were.
Meanwhile, Assumptiopn Parish Emergency Preparedness Director said he has been monitoring the waters of Bayou Corne and Grand Bayou for a month. But he, parish officials and scientists cannot confirm the source of the bubbles rising to the surface. The constant activity is UNUSUAL, and he's been out on Bayou Corne twice a day because of the bubbles. Tests have revealed the gas is not flammable, suggesting it is not a hydrocarbon or natural gas leak. Daily readings continue to show no explosive risks to the community or boaters. Scientists with the state Department of Environmental Quality have started using air monitors to check the property surrounding the bayous for flammable gases. Thibodaux-based Acadian Gas Pipeline System and Dallas-based Crosstex Energy have pipelines beneath the floor in the bayous, and employees are working to shut off the lines to see if that makes a difference.
Blasting through some of the mud above the pipelines did not indicate the source of the bubbles. Chevron is also working with Assumption Parish because that company owns a salt dome storage cavern containing natural gas. Preliminary information from the state Department of Natural Resources suggests Chevron's dome is not the source of the bubbles. Acadian Gas owns the other salt dome in the area that contains natural gas, and employees are working to determine if the gas bubbles may be related to its dome. However, that company's cavern is about a mile and a half away from the bubbling area, while Chevron's is about 3,800 feet away.

New Jersey - Mysterious booms in Rockaway. Loud and unexplained “booms” heard in one part of town several times this week were small and shallow earthquakes. Police were inundated with phone calls about the booms.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

New Zealand volcano shows signs of activity after 35 years of dormancy - Tongariro sees sharp increase in earthquakes. The volcanic alert level has been raised for Mt Tongariro following a series of earthquakes. Small earthquakes were recorded beneath the central North Island mountain on July 13. They died down but flared up again on July 18 and increased in frequency. Usually such quakes only occur at Tongariro at an average rate of two per year but in the past week more than 20 have been recorded, including some on Friday. The earthquakes are all small in magnitude, at less than 2.5 magnitude.
Mt Tongariro is a volcanic complex that lies to the north of Ngauruhoe and consists of numerous craters and vents. Tongariro as a massive complex of volcanic cones and craters formed by eruptions from at least 12 vents over more than 275,000 years. Erosion during the last Ice Age wore away what was once a substantial mountain.
Scientists and locals have dismissed immediate chances of a large eruption. Volcanologists are continuing to monitor the earthquake activity. GNS Science will be deploying seismic recorders around the epicentres of the earthquakes and sampling selected hot springs, crater lakes and fumaroles in the area.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Pacific -
Tropical storm 09w (Vicente) was located approximately 180 nm south-southeast of Hong Kong.

Tropical storm Vicente is forecast to strike China at about 12:00 GMT on July 23.

Tropical Storm Khanun kills at least 7 in North Korea - Tropical storm Khanun destroyed scores of houses, buildings and transportation infrastructure in southern parts of North Korea this week, killing at least seven people in the reclusive state. Hundreds of flights were grounded as the center of Khanun passed directly through the heart of South Korea's capital city of Seoul on Thursday.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

China - 20 now reported dead in RECORD RAINS. Beijing has been hit by heavy rain, killing 10 there and forcing the evacuation of 30,000 people from its outlying districts. It was the HEAVIEST RAIN IN 61 YEARS. More downpours are forecast for northeast and southwest China.
Torrential rain pounded the capital all day on Saturday, leading to the evacuation of more than 30,000 people, mostly from Beijing's outlying mountainous districts. A policeman who was electrocuted by a fallen power line during a rescue operation was among the fatalities, while others were killed in traffic accidents and roof collapses. The death toll could rise with media reports on Sunday saying numerous people, including rescue workers, were missing.
Meanwhile three bodies were recovered on Sunday in Beijing's mountainous Fangshan region where several landslides were reported. Up to 46 centimetres of rain fell in Fangshan district, THE MOST RAIN TO HIT THE CITY IN A 14-HOUR PERIOD SINCE RECORDS BEGAN in 1951. The average rainfall throughout the capital during the period amounted to 16.4 centimetres. Numerous roads in the city were submerged under up to a metre of water, while 475 flights were cancelled. Despite the damage, the rain was largely welcomed in drought-prone northern China which has suffered from a lack of rain over the last decade.

Friday, July 20, 2012

**A desire to resist oppression
is implanted in the nature of man.**
Tacitus


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.3 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS

Yesterday -
7/19/12 -
5.5 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
5.4 SOUTH SANDWICH

Why 2012 Sumatra quake was a weird one - it was an 'earthquake in a maze'. Already a curiosity for its sheer size, the 8.6-magnitude earthquake that shook the seafloor west of the Indonesian island of Sumatra on April 11 appears to have been even weirder than scientists thought.
A new study reveals the quake zigzagged along four faults, three of which are set perpendicular to each other. From above, the layout looks like a city street grid. "We call it an earthquake in a maze. We were very excited to see this because an earthquake this large, involving this complicated a fault system, does not happen very often. This may be the only one I will see in my lifetime."
The April Sumatra shaker was a strike-slip earthquake, in which two parts of the Earth's crust slide past each other horizontally. The quake was not only the 11th largest quake recorded by seismometers, it's also the largest strike-slip quake on the books. It's also one of the rare big intraplate earthquakes ; that is, it happened away from a plate boundary, where two plates of the Earth's crust meet and where most of the world's largest earthquakes occur.
The dense network of seismometers in Japan and Europe provided enough "ears" to track the slip-sliding faults deep beneath the Indian Ocean. The quake first proceeded along three connected faults. It started on a northwest-southeast fault, then turned almost 90 degrees to a northeast-southwest fault. This was followed by another 90-degree turn to another northwest-southeast fault. Finally, the fourth rupture stage involved jumping northward onto a separate, but parallel, northwest-southeast fault. Two hours later, an 8.2-magnitude aftershock started on the south end of the third northwest-southeast fault, and also jumped onto a perpendicular fault.
If that wasn't enough, yet another surprise awaited the researchers as they analyzed the seismic data: The quake took the toughest possible route available to it. Any earthquake opens space on one side of a fault, called extension, and closes space on the other side, called compression. Typically, ruptures that jump from fault to fault head for the extensional side, following the path of least resistance. "If you compress something, everything is solidified and it's more difficult to break it. On the extensional side, everything is looser and easier to break." Two of the Sumatra quake's torturous turns were into zones of compression, the researchers found. It's possible that water deep in the Earth altered rock in the Earth's mantle layer along the faults. This creates low friction and makes it easier for the rift to veer into the compressional field. The Sumatra quake and its aftershock were 15 miles (25 kilometers) deep, down in the mantle where rocks are less brittle.
Faults at right angles to each other are common in oceanic crust and also occur on continental crust, but researchers HAVE NEVER SEEN THEM CONNECTED IN A VERY LARGE EARTHQUAKE. Understanding the conditions that caused such a strange quake could help scientists predict whether this mechanism is possible elsewhere on the planet. The research has drawbacks because the imaging method can't resolve the earthquake's depth, nor the length each fault slipped. The Sumatra earthquake faults are in a diffuse deformation zone where the giant India-Australia oceanic plate is cleaving in two. "This process of breaking a huge oceanic plate apart is clearly something that's not happening in many other places. Our ability to quantify this earthquake offers important lessons about the stresses and processes by which plates break."

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

The future of the Great Barrier Reef in Queensland depends not only on human efforts in Australia, but on events as far away as Tonga. A research team tracked the flow of volcanic debris, known as pumice, from the volcanic eruption in Tonga in August 2006. The debris made its way to Australia's eastern seaboard seven to eight months later. Aboard this debris was a host of stowaway marine life from thousands of kilometres away including tiny corals, crabs, and other reef dwellers.
This is a line of communication between Pacific reefs. "Importantly this research shows a connection to other reef systems as far away as Tonga, Vanuatu, Fiji and New Caledonia." This marine life become part of the reef and helps replenish it...This research proves that this marine life, when it arrives, can successfully colonise and grow." However, this tremendous migration from east to west could also bring a security threat. "On the downside you can get pests that travel on this debris as well, which can be detrimental to the health of the reef." But, as yet, no such threats have been recorded.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

Philippines - A low-pressure area (LPA) east of Luzon will possibly intensify into a tropical cyclone today. Models indicate the cyclone may affect the eastern part of Luzon, and may head for extreme Northern Luzon and Taiwan. The LPA is expected to bring scattered rains over the country and widespread rains in eastern section of Luzon.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Krymsk flood in Russia caused by human actions? - Any cataclysm causes a great deal of rumors and the most controversial speculation. For example, victims of the earthquake in Armenia in 1988 sincerely believed that right before the shocks a silver plane appeared in the sky and something was dropped from it.
The events in and around Krymsk go far beyond the standard reactions of shocked people to a disaster. The city in the Krasnodar region, without exaggeration, has become a ground for testing political strategies. It is already clear that there are organized groups of manipulators using the emotions of the locals in their own interests. The rumors of draining water from the reservoir as the cause of the catastrophic floods that enveloped the city are easily explained. This is very similar to the silver airplane in the sky of Armenia that was witnessed by thousands in various parts of the country. The people were genuinely indignant when rescuers tried to appeal to their common sense.
It is more difficult to explain the emergence of a statement of a Krymsk resident on the morning after the flood (July 7) that said: "Yesterday at 21:53 Krymsk took the hit!" The woman, referring to her father who worked at Neverdjayevskaya power station, revealed the details of how the floodgates were opened and a catastrophic wave was directed at the city - "to save Novorossiysk."
Novorossiysk is separated from Krymsk by a mountain ridge, the Neverdjayevskaya station does not have locks that can be opened, the electricity supply to Krymsk was resumed on July 8-9, cellular communication was restored on the 9th, but these details have not been taken into account. The statement was very popular online, and was quoted by electronic and print media, the rumors have returned to the city endowed with many details and backed up by the authority of the media.
Today, despite all rebuttals, despite the fact that an independent group from Krymsk has circled Neverdjayevskaya dam reservoir on an airplane, the attempts to fully refute the belief of the people that a wave was directed at them intentionally, have failed. People started talking about other reservoirs in the region from which the water could go to town. They began to look for other causes of flooding, understanding that the "Novorossiysk" theory had failed. Other theories included "drained water from the site of Grushevka Rosneft", "tried to save Putin's dacha in Praskoveevka," etc.
Social networks played a significant role in spreading these rumors. Suffice it to say that bloggers are still looking for lies in the reports on the absence of locks at the Neverdjayevskaya station, saying: "We were lied to, locks must be there". It seems that if social networks existed in 1988, the man-made theory of the earthquake in Armenia would have become self-sustaining throughout the country. Yet, not everything has to do only with the specific network conspiracy. The events have obvious features of a planned political campaign, and for the first time in modern Russian history, it goes far beyond the blogosphere and some opposition media.
On July 9 unidentified vehicles in the streets were announcing to the local residents that the second wave of floods was coming. Allegedly, the dam at the reservoir Neverdjayevskaya broke down and another multi-meter wave of water was approaching the city. These "warnings" have generated a serious panic in the city, people rushed to the roofs of the houses, traffic jams emerged on the exits from Krymsk. Local authorities tried to calm the citizens down for hours, let the police cars on the streets urging people not to give in to provocations, explained that there was no second wave and the reservoir was fine.
"Provocateurs were not found. In a dilapidated, panic-ridden city, the search and identification of criminals has become a real problem. However, the mere appearance of such "warning vehicles" is remarkable. It means only one thing - there is an organized group of provocateurs in Krymsk seeking to undermine the situation, politicize the disaster, and direct anger and frustration of people in the direction advantageous for the manipulators. It is hardly likely that anyone really plans to raise a wave of protests in the small town in Kuban. Most likely, the spin doctors in Krymsk are training, testing the actions in crisis situations. The destroyed city was turned into testing grounds, which makes this situation even worse."

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Severe drought continues to spread across much of the U.S. this summer. The latest figure from the National Climatic Data Center has 55 percent of the country in moderate to extreme drought conditions. Much of the southern Midwest is reporting the worst conditions.
Grain prices set records as US drought, food worries spread.
Worst drought in 50 years could last through October - Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center were unable to assure growers that there is an end to the drought in sight.

Video - Wildfires burn across southern Europe.

SPACE WEATHER -

ALMOST X-FLARE - Sunspot complex AR1520-1521 erupted again on July 19th, this time producing an M7-class solar flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory. The explosion produced a bright coronal mass ejection. The cloud should miss Earth. Although the explosion occured on the other side of the sun's western limb, our planet could feel some effects. The blast site is magnetically connected to Earth by backward-spiralling lines of magnetic force. Protons accelerated by the flare are being guided to us by those lines of magnetism, and a mild radiation storm is underway.
On the sun's SW limb, a magnificent row (or "arcade") of magnetic loops is towering over the limb. Magnetic arcades often form in the aftermath of significant explosions such as the one that occured during the early hours of July 19th.
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. On July 20, 2012 there were 1322 potentially hazardous asteroids. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.

HEALTH THREATS -

US whooping cough epidemic could be worst in half century. The number of US whooping cough cases has risen to around 18,000.

RECALLS & ALERTS

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Not much new to report today.

**All enterprises that are entered into with indiscreet zeal
may be pursued with great vigor at first,
but are sure to collapse in the end.**
Tacitus


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.6 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Yesterday -
7/18/12 -
5.4 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.9 FIJI REGION
5.1 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.0 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Pacific -
Tropical depression 08w (Khanun) was located approximately 15 nm south of Seoul, South Korea.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

India flooding video.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Greenland iceberg video.

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

**I always have a quotation for everything -
it saves original thinking.**
Dorothy L. Sayers


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.0 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE .

Yesterday -
7/17/12 -
5.1 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

Japan discovers that a second nuclear plant is built atop earthquake - Japan is reviewing seismological data on nuclear plants as fears mount over the danger from earthquakes after media reports that a second plant in three months had been found to be sitting atop a faultline.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Pacific -
- Tropical depression Fabio was located about 640 mi [1035 km] SSW of San Diego, California.

- Tropical storm Khanun (08W) was located approximately 205 nm south of Cheju-do, South Korea.

NASA watching Tropical Storm Fabio head to southern California - Southern California's coast is already feeling rough surf from Tropical Storm Fabio, and as the storm draws closer it is expected to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms as well. Swells generated by Fabio are spreading north along the coast of Mexico's Baja California peninsula.

NASA's TRMM satellite eyeing Tropical Storm Khanun's rainfall - The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is keeping an eye on the rainfall being generated by Tropical Storm Khanun as it moves past Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

The battle is on in the Canary Islands to put raging forest fires under control, including one in Tenerife which is threatening a precious nature reserve. Two days after they began burning, the fires are said to have spread across nearly 2,000 hectares and in some areas are still out of control. More than 50 percent of the land has reportedly been seriously burnt. The Teide National Park, the largest in Spain, is a mountainous beauty spot centred around a volcano and a UNESCO world heritage site. The fires, including one on the island of La Palma, broke out on Sunday. Local reports say they started in at least three different places and the authorities reportedly suspect the work of arsonists. More than 200 people have been moved out of their home. Coaches and cars have been removed from the grounds of the national park as a precaution. The government in Madrid has sent planes to Tenerife to help the firefighting effort. The DRIEST WINTER IN 70 YEARS has put Spain at higher risk of forest fires than ever this summer. One fire in the east of the country ravaged 50,000 hectares.

Greenland glacier loses large mass of ice - A chunk of ice twice the size of Manhattan has parted from Greenland’s Petermann glacier, a break researchers attributed to warmer ocean temperatures. The separation along Greenland’s northwest coast, which took place Monday, represents the second major calving event for the glacier in the past three years. In August 2010, the Petermann glacier lost an area of roughly 97 square miles, compared with the 46 square miles that just split off this week.
The glacier’s end point is now at “a location where it has not been for at least 150 years. The Greenland ice sheet is changing rapidly before our eyes." While “no individual glacier will be the canary in the coal mine” recent warming has transformed the overall ice sheet. “The Greenland ice sheet is being reduced not just in size, but in volume. The big and broader climate change story is what’s happening all around Greenland.” Scientists will now be monitoring whether the glacier’s flow rate will accelerate “because of its loss of this chunk of ice at the front of it. It’s going to take awhile to understand how significant a loss this is."
The Petermann glacier’s flow accelerated between 10 and 20 percent after the 2010 calving event. Researchers were still waiting to see if that was a short-term increase or would persist over time. The 2010 calving was “the largest in the observational record for Greenland.” It was correctly predicted last summer that the piece that just broke off, about half the size, was on the brink. Air temperatures in the region have warmed more than 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit, or 2.5 degrees Celsius since 1987, a rate five times that of the rest of the world. But they cautioned against directly linking air temperatures to the glacier’s behavior, noting it has a floating ice shelf. “Air temperatures are not very important, because 80 percent of the melting of this glacier takes place from below, in the ocean."

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

**The family is a unit composed, not only of children,
but of men, women, an occasional pet, and the common cold.**
Ogden Nash


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
7/16/12 -
5.5 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.4 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA

Japan - One of the most-watched YouTube videos related to the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan is a Russia Today clip (viewed 20 million times and counting) that used footage taken by a camera at Sendai airport.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Russia - The Kamchatka Peninsula, the northwestern edge of the Pacific Ring of Fire, is one of the most volcanically active regions on Earth. At least 114 Kamchatkan volcanoes have erupted in the past 12,000 years. Four of these volcanoes - Shiveluch, Klyuchevskaya, Bezymianny, and Karymskyâ - are erupting currently.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Pacific -
- Tropical Storm Fabio was located about 700 mi [1125 km] WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Fabio is expected to become a depression today and degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by Wednesday.

- Tropical storm 08w (Khanun) was located approximately 186 nm east of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

After early start, Atlantic hurricane season quiet in July - In each decade, on average, one Atlantic tropical storm forms in July in seven of the years, with zero formed in the other three years. An Atlantic hurricane forms in July in three years out of every ten years.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Video story on Japan's rain and flooding (1 minute long). A massive quarter million people have been evacuated in Japan due to torrential rains and massive landslides.

Canada landslide caught on video (32 seconds long).

United Kingdom - The UK public has already endured the WETTEST APRIL FOR OVER A CENTURY and the WETTEST JUNE SINCE RECORDS BEGAN and more bad weather is forecast. More showers were expected to dampen the nation's spirits over the coming seven days with heavy, thundery rainstorms in the middle of the week. But the relentless rain that resulted in record-breaking weather conditions has vanished for the time being.
This summer's RECORD-BREAKING grim weather has been caused by the jet stream settling UNUSUALLY far south. Now experts believe it is on its way back north, restoring a "more usual summer pattern".

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

The US is currently suffering its widest drought since 1956. On Monday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that by the end of June 55% of the continental US was in a moderate to extreme drought. Crops including corn and soybeans have been hit by the dry conditions, and several states have seen wildfires. High temperatures across much of the country in June contributed to the spread of the drought. As much as 80% of the US is abnormally dry, the report said, noting that the drought expanded in the West, Great Plains and Midwest areas. June was the 14th warmest and 10th driest since records began. Agriculture officials estimated that 30% of the corn crops planted in the 18 high-production states were in poor or very poor condition by last week. "Topsoil has dried out and crops, pastures and rangeland have deteriorated at a rate rarely seen in the last 18 years." Over 1,000 counties in 26 states have been declared disaster areas because of drought. Earlier, NOAA said that the last year in the continental US has been the country's hottest since modern record-keeping began in 1895.
Midwest Drought Forecast Shows Dry Weather Will Get Worse, Not Better - Commodity Weather Group on Monday said more than one-half of the Midwest would still be too dry and warm for at least the next two weeks and the most persistent heat was expected for the western Midwest.
The Great American Drought: Climate Change? The New Dust Bowl? It’s difficult to deny that large areas of the US are undergoing drought conditions at the moment. But should we be assuming that this is a portent of climate change? Or even that it is a harbinger of a new Dust Bowl, as in the 1930? We cannot completely rule out either of those possibilities but the correct answers as yet are no and no.
That there are drought conditions in many places is not in doubt: This year’s drought now ranks among the ten largest drought areas in the past century. Since 1895, only the extraordinary droughts of the 1930s and 1950s have covered more land area than the current drought. Note that we’ve only really had accurate rainfall and drought measurements for much of the US since that 1895 date. So, leaving aside specific years and looking at groupings, we’ve got the third worst drought conditions in just over a century. No, this isn’t to be ascribed to climate change then, obviously. It could be of course, but we’ve had it worse, twice, before in periods when we really were not worried about anthropogenically caused climate change. Occam’s Razor would so far lead us to the thought that it’s just one of those things that happens in a the normal variations of something like weather.
The second worry is that even if it is just variation, might it still lead to Dust Bowl conditions? The thought of 95% of the topsoil in the mid-West landing on the Ozarks (I might be exaggerating a touch) isn’t all that pleasant a one. This seems most, most unlikely. That being said, differences in land use and farming practices since the Dust Bowl make the comparison of real-world impacts more complicated. Erosion-control practices and drought-resistant crop hybrids are just two examples of ways in which modern agriculture attempts to mitigate the impacts of severe drought. But the genetically engineered crops planted this year aren’t engineered to deal with this much drought.
The thing is, last time around, when we did get the Dust Bowl, we were really only just beginning to understand about the effects of ploughing with tractors on the stability of that topsoil. We have rather learnt some things in the intervening 80 odd years. Don’t plough so deep, don’t leave the earth uncovered, use no till methods if you can, plough around contours not up and down them and so on. So, again, it is possible that we’ll have a new Dust Bowl - maybe the things we’ve learned aren’t enough, but that isn’t the way that anyone’s actually betting at this point.

Monday, July 16, 2012

AURORA ALERT - A geomagnetic storm is in progress as Earth's magnetic field continues to reverberate from a CME strike on July 14th. Sky watchers in Scandinavia, Canada, Alaska and northern-tier US states from Maine to Washington should be alert for auroras after nightfall. The hours around local midnight are usually best for aurora-spotting.
When the CME first arrived on July 14th, its effect appeared weak. However, conditions in the wake of the CME have since become stormy. On July 14-15 Northern Lights appeared in the United States as far south as California, Colorado, Missouri, Utah, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Washington, Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan and Arkansas. Meanwhile in the southern hemisphere, the aurora australis has been sighted in New Zealand, Australia, and directly above the South Pole itself.
Sunspot 1520 poses a continued threat for X-class solar flares. As the sunspot turns away from Earth, however, the chances of a geoeffective eruption are decreasing.

**The only rock I know that stays steady,
the only institution I know that works,
is the family.**
Lee Iacocca


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.4 NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA

Yesterday -
7/15/12 -
5.0 CENTRAL PERU
5.0 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
5.3 KURIL ISLANDS

Bulgaria - Three or four buildings in quake-hit municipality in critical condition, probably will be removed. The western municipality of Pernik has received 29 signals [aftershocks?] after Saturday’s 4.5-magnitude earthquake. "Three or four buildings are in a critical condition. We are waiting for a statement and in accordance with it we will undertake actions on Monday. Probably some of the buildings will have to be removed", said the mayor. The buildings were critical in principle, as they were damaged in the previous quakes and Saturday’s one damaged them further.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Pacific -
- Hurricane Fabio was located about 685 mi [1105 km] WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Fabio is expected to become a tropical storm today and a tropical depression on Tuesday as it moves over much cooler waters. Swells generated by Fabio are spreading northward along the West Coast of the Baja California peninsula and are expected to reach the extreme Southern California coast by tonight. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions.

- Tropical depression 08w was located approximately 575 nm east-southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa.

Tropical depression Eight is forecast to strike South Korea as a tropical storm at about 02:00 GMT on 18 July. The new tropical depression spawned southeast of Iwo Jima, and appears headed between Okinawa and Kyushu toward Korea's west coast.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Japan flood evacuees start returning home - The death toll from landslides and floods in Japan has risen to 26, with rescuers on the island of Kyushu still searching six missing people.

Poland - One person has been killed and at least 10 others injured during a series of FREAK tornadoes in northern and western Poland. The extreme winds hits the country's Kujawy-Pomorze and Wielkopolska provinces, destroying 100 homes. Some 400 hectares of trees have also been damaged in Bory Tucholskie forest, a national park and popular tourist destination. Electricity power-lines have also been damaged.
Even though tornadoes are not unknown in Poland, this summer's series of events has been particularly dramatic and weather forecasters have predicted stormy conditions will continue. According to local media reports, a 60-year-old man who was killed died in the village of Wycinki after being crushed beneath his collapsing house. Residents have described hearing a terrifying rumble as the tornado approached. A vast clean-up operation is now under way as people hastily cover up their roofs, fallen trees are removed and power lines are repaired.

Illinois - City signs indicate Weather Shelters for extreme weather. The city of chicago has put up signs to tell people where to find shelter in case Chicago is hit with extreme weather. They are in 16 different locations throughout the city's central business district, mostly along Michigan Avenue and Grant Park. The city's Office of Emergency Management and Communications says it installed the signs so people are informed of their safety options if high winds or storms roll through the area.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

2012 drought 'THE LARGEST NATURAL DISASTER EVER IN THE U.S.' - The Department of Agriculture has declared natural disaster areas in more than 1,000 counties in 26 states due to drought, making it the largest natural disaster ever in the U.S. The declaration covers about half the nation, and gives farmers and ranchers hit hard by the drought access to federal aid, including low-interest emergency loans.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 56 percent of the country experienced drought conditions, the largest percetage in the service's 12-year history. The drought comes amid record heat, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reporting recently that the six months from January through June was the hottest first half of any year on record for the 48 contiguous U.S. states.

Sunday, July 15, 2012

World Catastrophe Losses Moderate in First Half of 2012 - At mid-year, there have been no catastrophes on the scale of those in the same period of 2011, which was marked by enormous losses from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and a number of earthquakes in New Zealand.

**A shocking crime is committed
on the unscrupulous initiative of a few individuals,
with the blessing of more,
and amid the passive acquiescence of all.**
Tacitus


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
7/14/12 -
5.5 MYANMAR-INDIA BORDER REGION
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.4 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
5.3 KURIL ISLANDS

7/13/12 -
5.0 JAVA, INDONESIA
5.0 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Israel forges national plan for contending with earthquakes - The Haaretz National Emergency Authority has formulated a contingency plan for earthquakes that could cause upwards of 7000 deaths.

U.S. East Coast - Earthquake epicenter the focus of study. Early next week, geologists plan to hunt by air for the fault that triggered the August 2011 earthquake on the East Coast. The 5.8-magnitude quake, likely felt by more people than any other earthquake in U.S. history, caused extensive damage and was among the largest ever recorded on the East Coast. The August 23 quake occurred along a buried and previously unknown fault in the Virginia Piedmont. The epicenter was 38 miles (61 kilometers) northwest of Richmond, and the fault ruptured 3 miles (about 5 km) below the surface.
The data collected during the survey will help geoscientists better estimate the region’s likelihood of damaging earthquakes. "We know where the fault is located because shortly after the earthquake, a number of different groups monitored the aftershocks. But we don't know how big or how long the fault is, or how far away it stretches from the epicenter. We don't know whether or not it reaches the surface." The USGS contracted with a private company to employ state-of-the-art survey equipment, the kind typically used for mineral or oil exploration. "This is the first time airborne gravity has been used for mapping earthquake hazards in the U.S."
The instruments can peer up to 9 miles (14.5 km) underground, deeper than the 2011 earthquake ruptured. The survey will measure Earth's gravitational and magnetic fields throughout the region. Subtle changes in the fields can indicate where underground faults are located, because different rock types generate slightly different magnetic and gravity fields. "This allows us to find where we have contrasts in different rock types, and if we see such contrasts that might be evidence of a fault." The research team also plans to pin down other faults that caused aftershocks in the days following the August quake. "We are hoping to map out all the faults in this area."

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Japan - Quake left 20-meter crack in Mount Fuji. A 20-meter-long crack was found halfway up Mount Fuji in Yamanashi Prefecture after a 6.4-magnitude earthquake hit on March 15, 2011, centered around eastern Shizuoka Prefecture, local authorities revealed Tuesday. Experts say it is unlikely to be a sign of an impending eruption or any other abnormality. They ruled out the possibility of an eruption. "No abnormalities have been observed regarding Mount Fuji and the mountain shows no signs of an eruption," an official at the Meteorological Agency said, indicating the crack was caused not by volcanic activity but by the temblor. Both the width and depth of the crack were several centimeters, and it has subsequently been covered by sand and pebbles. "Nothing has happened after more than a year (since the discovery of the crack), so Mount Fuji is probably not going to erupt."

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

In the Pacific -
- Tropical storm Emilia was located about 1675 mi [2700 km] WSW of the southern tip of Baja California.
- Category 2 Hurricane Fabio was located about 585 mi [945 km] SW of the southern tip of Baja California The hurricane is approaching colder water and gradual weakening is expected to begin on Sunday.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

New Zealand - Severe flooding on NZ's South Island. Heavy rain is causing flooding on the west coast of New Zealand's South Island, cutting off Westport and triggering at least one evacuation.

CANADA – The search for four people assumed caught in Thursday’s landslide in southeastern in southeastern British Columbia resumed Friday afternoon and was to continue until dark, and then resume at first light Saturday morning. Three homes in the small community of Johnsons Landing, located just north of Kaslo on the east side of Kootenay Lake, were hit by the landslide that roared down a mountainside on Thursday. More landslides earlier Friday had delayed the ground search for a father, his two adult daughters and a German woman believed to be trapped by the landslide. There had been further slides in the area, and because of that searchers had to wait for geotechnicians to assess the safety of the terrain before they went in. Engineers gave the go-ahead, although there was no certainty the danger had passed. About 40 rescue workers are now in Johnsons Landing, with 13 on top of the debris pile at any one time, trying to burrow in strategically to locate possible survivors.
Extreme weather worried residents before the landslide - RECORD-SETTING weather conditions were much discussed in the days leading up to the disaster.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

NOAA Believes Extreme Weather Events Will Continue - A recent report from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration provides hard data that the first six months of 2012 were THE HOTTEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN being kept in 1895.

SPACE WEATHER -

GEOMAGNETIC STORM - A fast-moving CME hit Earth's magnetic field on July 14th at approximately 1800 UT. The impact was not as strong as forecasters expected. Nevertheless, the blow compressed Earth's magnetosphere and sparked a mild (Kp=5) geomagnetic storm, in progress. So far, few sightings of auroras have been reported. The arrival of the CME shook Earth's magnetic field, which in turn induced electrical currents in the ground at Arctic latitudes. This one was not particularly strong, at least in terms of ground currents. Relatively weak ground currents are consistent with the muted displays of auroras in the aftermath of the strike.

Friday, July 13, 2012

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th. Because the sunspot is directly facing Earth, everything about the blast was geoeffective. For one thing, it hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend. Aroras may be seen at lower latitudes than usual.
The explosion also strobed Earth with a pulse of extreme UV radiation. The UV pulse partially ionized Earth's upper atmosphere, disturbing the normal propagation of radio signals around the planet. Monitoring stations in Norway, Ireland and Italy recorded the sudden ionospheric disturbance. Finally, solar protons accelerated by the blast are swarming around Earth. The radiation storm, in progress, ranks "S1" on NOAA space weather scales, which means it poses no serious threat to satellites or astronauts. This could change if the storm continues to intensify.

**Fear is not in the habit of speaking truth;
when perfect sincerity is expected,
perfect freedom must be allowed;
nor has anyone who is apt to be angry when he hears the truth
any cause to wonder that he does not hear it.
Tacitus


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.0 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.1 FIJI REGION

Yesterday -
7/12/12 -
5.5 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.8 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
5.7 KURIL ISLANDS
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.0 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 GUATEMALA

7/11/12 -
5.4 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.1 GALAPAGOS ISLANDS REGION
5.6 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.4 TONGA
5.3 KURIL ISLANDS
5.7 KURIL ISLANDS
5.3 SOLOMON ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Pacific -
- Category 1 Hurricane Emilia was located about 1025 mi [1655 km] WSW of the southern tip of Baja California.
- Tropical storm Fabio was located about 625 mi. [1005 km] S of the southern tip of Baja California.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Japan - People in southwestern Japan are bracing for more rain after "UNPRECEDENTED" downpours left at least 19 people dead and eight missing as whole neighbourhoods were swamped. Television footage showed torrents of muddy water carrying uprooted trees and other debris, while rivers burst their banks and flooded towns and villages in the main southern island of Kyushu. Residential streets in the city of Kumamoto were buried in mud, while battered cars that had been swept away by flood water were left dumped on hillsides in scenes reminiscent of the March 2011 tsunami in the northeast.
In the city of Aso, landslides buried 17 households, killing at least 17 people with five still missing. Rescuers were continuing their search on Friday morning, using heavy machinery to remove uprooted trees, boulders and debris as rain continued to fall. The weather had eased somewhat by Friday morning, but the Japan Meteorological Agency said it expected "very heavy rain" again in Kyushu later on Friday. The downpours were set to add to the misery for an area where 50,000 people were ordered to leave their homes on Thursday after it was lashed by THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ON RECORD (20 inches). "We expect heavy rain on the same scale we saw yesterday will fall again today. We remain on the highest alert," said a local official in badly-hit Oita prefecture.
An official in Kumamoto prefecture, neighbouring Oita, said at least 18 people were known to have died, with troops and rescuers continuing their search for seven still missing. In Oita, a man in his 70s died after being swept into a raging river, while another man remained missing. The weather agency urged residents of Kyushu to continue exercising vigilance against mudslides and floods after rainfall of 10.1 centimetres (about 4 inches) per hour was recorded in the southern region of Kagoshima early Friday.

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Nice and quiet, not much news to report today.
No update on Thursday.

**Abuse, if you slight it, will gradually die away;
but if you show yourself irritated,
you will be thought to have deserved it.**
Tacitus


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.3 KURIL ISLANDS
5.7 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 KEPULAUAN OBI, INDONESIA
5.4 SOLOMON ISLANDS

Yesterday -
7/10/12 -
5.2 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.3 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Pacific -
- Tropical storm Daniel was located about 1145 mi [1845 km] ESE of Hilo Hawaii.
- Category 2 Hurricane Emilia was located about 695 mi. [1120 km] SSW of the southern tip of Baja California.

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

**Idle dreaming is often of the essence of what we do.**
Thomas Pynchon


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

Yesterday -
7/9/12 -
5.3 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.1 MYANMAR
5.3 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.7 EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA
5.0 ALAMAGAN REG, N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.3 SEA OF OKHOTSK

New Zealand - North Island no closer to big quake. The North Island has been rocked by two large earthquakes in less than a week, but seismologists say the chance of "the big one" has not increased.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Pacific -
- Category 1 Hurricane Daniel was located about 1535 mi [2470 km] E of Hilo, Hawaii.
- Category 3 Hurricane Emilia was located about 680 mi [1095 km] SSW of the southern tip of Baja California.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Turkey - Nine people, including at least four children, have died in flooding triggered by torrential rains on Turkey's Black Sea coast, it was reported on Wednesday. Another four people are believed to be missing, including a toddler, after the floods which have prompted the evacuation of a number of riverside villages in and around the Black Sea port city of Samsun.
Rescuers found the bodies of five people in the basement of a block of flats Samsun, which was badly affected by the freak rains. The body of another man was found in the rubble of a bridge which collapsed in rural Samsun. Three people, among them a six-year-old girl, were also found dead in a car that was swept away by floodwaters after a seven-hour torrent. A rescue team of 12 divers are looking for a toddler believed to be in the same car, as well as three others who might have been swept away in their vehicles.
The disaster has prompted the evacuation of riverside villages, where hundreds of farm animals drowned before they could be transported. The heavy rains were expected to continue throughout the week, local meteorological officials in Samsun have warned.

Northeast India floods kill 121, displace 6 million - The death toll from heavy monsoon rains which have caused massive flooding in India's northeast has risen to more than 120, with six million forced to flee their homes, officials said Saturday. The weather office forecast that more rains during the next 24 hours would lash the region, which is suffering from its worst flooding in recent years.

SPACE WEATHER -

One of the biggest sunspots in years, AR1520, is turning toward Earth. The vast dark cores of sunspot AR1520 are made of magnetism. Each one is a magnetic island nearly as wide as Earth floating in a sea of solar plasma. The magnetic field of this enormous sunspot is tangled, and harbors energy for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-flares and a 25% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.
MANY CMEs: During the late hours of July 8th, a series of rapid-fire explosions on the sun propelled three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) into space. Despite the number of eruptions and the breadth of the billowing ejecta, Earth is little affected. All of the clouds appear set to miss our planet. Nevertheless, this flurry of CMEs highlights the currently-high level of solar activity. It is only a matter of time before a significant CME comes our way.
On July 9th there were surprise auroras over North America. The source of the display was not an explosion on the sun, but rather a fluctuation in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The IMF near Earth tipped south, opening a crack in our planet's magnetosphere. Solar wind poured in and ignited the lights. More auroras could be in the offing. A CME that left the sun on July 6th might deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on July 9-10. NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% to 30% chance of polar geomagnetic storms if and when the cloud arrives.
A solar wind stream flowing from a coronal hole could reach Earth on July 10-11.