Friday, November 30, 2012

Over the next few months the supermassive black hole at the centre of our galaxy will set about consuming a vast cloud of interstellar dust and gas - known as G2 - that has strayed too close to the singularity's event horizon.
It promises to be quite a show as all the material that doesn't get sucked into oblivion will be swept up, swirled around in a gigantic catherine wheel, heated, stretched, shredded and finally fired out again in a dazzling display of gravitational power. Not something astronomers get to see every day.
"The black hole at the centre of our galaxy is normally quite quiet, docile even, but as this cloud begins to fall in the material is going to get very, very hot and it's going to start emitting all sorts of radiation. WE DON'T KNOW EXACTLY WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN but we know it's going to be spectacular."
The galactic pyrotechnic display about to be unleashed couldn't have come at a more opportune moment. NASA's latest space based X-ray telescope, NuSTAR, was only launched in June but is already offering a grandstand view of G2's death throes. "We got lucky and caught an initial outburst from the black hole during our first observing campaign in July. But that's just a taste of what's to come next year, and NuSTAR will be there to catch it".
The close encounter between Sagittarius A* [the black hole] and the G2 dust cloud is set to start early in the New Year. The latest simulations suggest the massive cloud of dust and gas will have been completely consumed in less than a decade. Quite a meal, even for a supermassive black hole.
"Black holes have had a bad rap. We've always thought of them as these dark, brooding destructive entities, but it turns out their influence is much more creative. Black holes help to regulate galaxies, acting a bit like a pressure valve that prevents star formation from running away with itself". By dictating the large-scale structure of galaxies like the Milky Way, black holes have helped to establish the conditions necessary for life to emerge.
But it's the other, less creative, side of a black hole's personality that will be grabbing the headlines over the next few months. "It's very exciting because it's the first time we've been able to predict something like this, and the first time we've had the telescopes and instruments ready to watch it in detail. We hope we'll see some of the processes at play in converting matter into energy around black holes". (video)

**Some men see things as they are and ask why –
I dream things that never were and ask why not.**
Robert F. Kennedy (quoting George Bernard Shaw)


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS

Yesterday -
11/29/12 -
5.0 NEAR ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.2 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
5.0 NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN
6.0 NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG.
5.4 FIJI REGION
5.5 FIJI REGION
5.5 NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN PERU

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Guatemala volcano erupts - Video. Guatemala is on alert as the Santiaguito volcano dumps plumes of smoke and ash over nearby communities, coating cars and houses in grey dust. The volcano lies 200kms (124 miles) west of the country's capital. Residents of nearby communities woke on Wednesday morning to find a thin layer of ash coating their cars, streets and homes. White columns of smoke reaching up to 5km (3.1 miles) into the sky had spewed forth from the Santiaguito lava-dome complex at the base of the volcano's summit. The situation was not serious enough to issue an official evacuation notice.

Russia - First images of the Tolbachik Fissure Eruption. KVERT reported that a 4 cm depth ashfall from a probable flank fissure (likely basaltic andesite in composition) extended up to 35 km from the volcano. KVERT posted a few images, including the two fissures with accompanying 9,800 ft ash plumes.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
Typhoon Bopha was located approximately 665 nm east-southeast of Palau.

Bopha is forecast to strike the Philippines as a typhoon at about 08:00 GMT on 4 December. It is likely to make landfall over the Visayas or Mindanao. “Bopha” could bring more rains than last year's “Sendong,” which left a trail of destruction in Mindanao.

2 more cyclones expected to enter Philippine area of responsibility in December, the state weather bureau said Friday.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Massive tornado caught on tape in Taranto, Italy - Video surfaced on YouTube of a massive tornado tearing through Taranto,Italy on Wednesday. According to local reports, the tornado touched down in southeastern Italy. The video showed a large wedge tornado hitting the industrial city with several power flashes and debris flying in the air.
Local media reported that there was extensive damage in the area, which was also confirmed by several videos. There were unconfirmed reports of at least three deaths and over 20 people injured. Some other reports said there was an explosion at a factory and a possible toxic cloud as a result.
Although tornadoes are RARE, they do occur throughout Europe. This situation was characterized by a strong trough and associated area of strong low pressure that created a favorable environment across southeastern Italy with strong wind shear and unstable conditions. A very strong low level jet at 35-40 knots was also present in the area, increasing the low level shear. Similar to the United States, tornadoes and severe weather in Europe are typically common in the fall and spring months of the year as weather transitions from warm air masses to cooler air masses and vice versa.

Another stormy week is in store for the U. S. West Coast - Storm warnings are in effect along the Oregon Coast with gale warnings posted along the entire West Coast (except extreme southern California). Even areas near southern Alaska are looking for winds up to gale force.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Russia - Moscow blanketed by RECORD-BREAKING SNOWFALL. A large, early snowstorm raging in Moscow disrupted flights and created havoc on the roads on Thursday.
20 centimeters (8 inches) of snow had fallen in 24 hours. That is HALF OF MOSCOW'S TYPICAL AMOUNT OF SNOW FOR THE WHOLE MONTH of November. Moscow’s City Hall said it expects the snowstorm, which is due to continue at least until Friday morning, to be the BIGGEST IN NOVEMBER IN 50 YEARS.
The roads in the capital have been clogged up since early Thursday morning and about 70 flights from Moscow’s largest airport, Domodedovo, were disrupted overnight. On Thursday, all three of the capital’s airports were working normally. Motorists complained about the lack of efforts to clear the snow from the streets. In one section of Moscow’s beltway the traffic was paralyzed for at least 30 kilometers (18 miles) on Thursday afternoon.

HEALTH THREATS -

Glass particles found in Ranbaxy pills, production stopped - The company that makes a popular cholesterol drug has stopped production because small glass particles have been found in the pills. Ranbaxy makes a generic for Lipitor taken by four million Americans. The glass particles are the size of a grain of sand. They haven't caused any patient problems but the company can't determine how they're getting into the pills. Patients are being told to return the Ranbaxy pills and get another brand.

RECALLS & ALERTS:

Thursday, November 29, 2012

**Every truth passes through three stages before it is recognized.
In the first, it is ridiculed.
In the second, it is opposed.
In the third, it is regarded as self evident.**
Arthur Schopenhauer


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.5 NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN PERU
5.0 FIJI REGION
DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE cluster continues

Yesterday -
11/28/12 -
5.0 NORTHERN ALGERIA
5.1 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.9 BANDA SEA
5.6 NORTHERN PERU
DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE cluster continues

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Russia's Tolbachik Erupts for First Time in 36 Years - The explosive volcanic eruption began in Russia's Far Eastern Kamchatka Peninsula on Tuesday. KVERT, the volcano monitoring body for Kamchatka, released a bulletin describing a significant explosive eruption with the potential for ash explosions up to 10 km / 32,800 ft. With the many air routes across the northern Pacific, this eruption will need to be closely monitored for its impact on air travel over the eastern Siberian peninsula. Towns up to 35 km from the volcano have received 4 cm of ash fall from the eruption.
The ash advisory from the Tokyo VAAC also mentions a report of ash at FL 330 (33,000 feet) that was spreading to the NNW. Seismicity had been creeping upwards around Tolbachik since at least early November. One report described the eruption as the “volcano’s top caldera is being filled with fresh and gushing lava” based on incandescence seen at the summit.
The last eruption of Tolbachik started in 1975 and was quite impressive, with both explosive and effusive activity. However, that was a larger eruption than most over the last century at the Russian volcano and most are smaller. Interestingly, the 1975-76 was a mainly basaltic eruption, the largest recorded in the northern Kamchatka peninsula - that activity did produce 13 km / 42,000 foot ash plumes as well during the creation of a series of cinder cones and a 15 square kilometer lava flow field.
Unfortunately, today’s passes by the Terra and Aqua satellite didn’t capture any plume – likely because the pass was too early, but some of the peninsula is obscured by clouds as well. Tolbachik is in relative proximity to its more famous brethren, Bezymianny and Kliuchevskoi.

Indonesia's Mount Lokon volcano in North Sulawesi erupted on Wednesday, spewing ash up to 3.5 kilometers to the sky, without report of fatality and evacuation.

New Zealand - Tongariro remains quiet, but is continuing to sit in a state of unrest a week after it erupted for the second time this year. Last Wednesday, the mountain briefly sprang into life spewing ash more than four kilometres in the sky. The provisional reports from Wednesday's eruption have detected some molten material in the ash around the mountain.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
- Tropical storm Bopha was located approximately 920 nm east of Palau, Republic of Palau.

Tropical Storm Bopha continues to intensify in the western North Pacific Ocean as it heads toward Yap State, triggering more warnings and watches.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Australia - Victoria has sweltered on its HOTTEST NOVEMBER DAY IN MORE THAN A CENTURY, with the heatwave triggering grass fires in the state. Mildura recorded a high of 45.4C at 3.18pm (AEDT) on Thursday, taking it over the record of 45C set in the city in November 1905. Temperatures in Hopetoun were almost as high, with the mercury reaching 45C by the middle of the afternoon. In Melbourne, it reached 38.9C at 3.32pm.
Firefighters were out in force dealing with several grass fires, including one in Edenhope in the state's far west that broke out in the morning and covered 12 hectares. The blaze was contained. In Locksley, north of Seymour in central Victoria, smoke spread across the Hume Freeway, leading to its southbound carriageway being closed. There were also a blaze in Talbot, north of Ballarat, on Thursday afternoon which nine fire trucks and two aircraft were sent to deal with. Small fires also broke out in Picola and Minyip.
A hot and sticky night was expected, with temperatures remaining in the 30s until the early hours of Friday. Victorians have been warned to take care in the heat and stay well hydrated. "In these extreme temperatures, the interior of a stationary vehicle, even when parked in the shade, can become a death trap, with temperatures skyrocketing to a lethal 60C within minutes, regardless of whether windows are left open."

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

River of storms headed for Northern California - It's shaping up as California's equivalent of a hurricane: A series of warm, wet storms arriving today that will be UNLIKE ANYTHING THE STATE HAS SEEN IN YEARS.
By Sunday, weather experts say Sacramento could see 4 to 8 inches of rain, and the mountains of the Northern Sierra Nevada and Shasta regions could be deluged with 12 to 18 inches of rainfall. If this comes to pass, Sacramento could receive more rain in a few days than it gets in an average January, typically the wettest month of the year.
The culprit is a weather phenomenon called an "atmospheric river," which channels tropical moisture all the way across the Pacific Ocean like a fire hose. Sometimes called a "pineapple express," these storms are viewed by weather experts as California's equivalent of a hurricane. Forecasters have "high confidence" in the timing and intensity of the storms. There is less certainty about where the fire hose will focus its wrath. Forecasts on Tuesday targeted Mount Shasta and the Northern Sierra, but that could change.
"It is kind of like when you turn your hose on in the front lawn without staking the end down. It kinda hops around a little bit. It could come a little bit further south. But there is a lot of moisture out there, and it's coming our way." The first storm arrives today and lasts through Thursday. It is expected to be relatively mild.
The second hits Friday and will be the real soaker, lasting through Sunday with drenching rain and strong winds. A third, even wetter storm, may follow later on Sunday. Sacramento could see sustained winds of 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph. The Sierra Nevada foothills could see gusts up to 55 mph.
These are warm storms and snow levels will be high – 7,000 feet and up. That means many Sierra highway passes could stay free of snow. But it also means more terrain will be exposed to rainfall runoff.
Atmospheric rivers form very differently from hurricanes, but the rainfall intensity can cause damage on the same scale. "There is potential for one of the longer-lived atmospheric river events that we've seen in the last 10 years or so. These are the types of events that are responsible for the biggest flood damages on the West Coast. To me, that's the analogue to the hurricane problem."
Forecasters say the second storm will plant its bull's-eye on Shasta, Tehama, Butte and Plumas counties, with lesser rainfall amounts farther south. This is worrisome, because these counties experienced large forest fires over the summer that now create a significant erosion and mudslide risk.
Of particular concern is the Battle Creek watershed in Shasta and Tehama counties, where the Ponderosa fire burned more than 27,000 acres in August. Battle Creek is the focus of a $128 million salmon restoration project, still under way, funded by state and federal agencies. Heavy erosion in the watershed could damage habitat vital to the project's success. "We are very concerned about that. We're going to get hammered, it looks like."
None of the Sacramento Valley's major rivers is expected to see flooding problems. The Sacramento River is predicted to spill into the Sutter Bypass on Saturday – a normal event in stormy weather. The Yolo Bypass downstream, between Sacramento and Davis, is not expected to flood.
On the other hand, many local creeks may experience flooding, and residents are advised to be ready. Sacramento County officials urged people who live near creeks in flood-prone areas to have sandbags on hand in case creeks overflow their banks.
Neighborhood flooding is also likely to become a significant problem because the region's urban tree canopy is in the thick of leaf-fall season. This means streets and storm drains are at high risk of clogging. Sacramento city and county officials urged people to clean leaves and other debris from around storm drains in their neighborhoods, and to monitor those drains during the unfolding storms. High winds and soaked ground raise the potential for downed trees and power outages. Residents should be ready with flashlights, extra batteries, food and water, a battery-powered radio and an alternate means of charging cellphones. They should also secure outdoor furniture and other objects to prevent them from becoming dangerous projectiles.

**The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity.
The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.**
Winston Churchill


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.9 BANDA SEA
5.6 NORTHERN PERU
Continuing large cluster of moderate quakes in DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

Yesterday -
11/27/12 -
5.5 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.1 PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS
5.2 ALAMAGAN REG, N. MARIANA ISLANDS Continuing large cluster of moderate quakes in DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE


Officials checking Kentucky dam after earthquake - Officials in eastern Kentucky are conducting tests on a dam to see if a recent 4.3 magnitude earthquake centered near Blackey enlarged the flow of a small stream at the bottom of the structure.

Low-Levels of Earthquake Actvity in the Week of November 21-27 - The week of 21-27 November was relatively quiet, with just 27quakes of magnitude 5 or greater, following a fortnight of significant seismic activity. This week's quakes were concentrated in the western Pacific and south of Sumatra.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No tropical storms.

In the Western Pacific -
- Tropical storm Bopha was located approximately 160 nm south-southeast of Chuuk, Micronesia.

Bopha - The tropical storm north of Papua New Guinea is expected to strengthen to a typhoon late Thursday. Tropical Storm Bopha will continue to move west-northwest, but no land impact is expected through Friday. Tropical storm warnings are in effect in Micronesia as NASA and other satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Storm Bopha continues to intensify.
A lot of power exists in the strengthening tropical storm. An AIRS image captured the eastern half of the tropical storm and showed a large area of very cold, very high cloud tops, where temperatures colder than -63 Fahrenheit (-52 Celsius) have the potential for dropping heavy rainfall. On Nov. 27, the National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam noted that "Residents of Satawal in Yap State should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Bopha, as a tropical storm watch could be required Wednesday, Nov. 28." A tropical storm warning remained in effect for Nukuoro in Pohnpei State and Lukunor in Chuuk State. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Losap, the Chuuk Lagoon Islands and Puluwat in Chuuk State.
At 1500 UTC (10 a.m. EST/1 a.m. CHST local time) the center of Tropical Storm Bopha was located only 55 miles north-northeast of Nukuoro. Bopha was also about105 miles southeast of Lukunor and 225 miles southeast of Losap. Bopha was nearly stationary but the National Weather Service expects Bopha to start moving westward. Bopha's maximum sustained winds have increased to 50 mph and Tropical Storm Bopha is expected to continue intensifying. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center, making the storm almost 100 miles in diameter.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Wild storm hits Western Australia - A brutal storm has left more than 50,000 homes in Perth and regional Western Australia without power, as emergency services scrambled to cope with widespread damage to schools, heritage buildings and homes across the state.
Dozens of fallen power lines left tens of thousands in the dark, at least two schools were badly damaged, while Perth's new $20 million boutique luxury hotel had its roof ripped off and a chimney demolished by the vicious gusts of wind that blasted the coast. The Terrace Hotel was opened only at the beginning of November, after an extensive and expensive renovation designed to attract A-list celebrity visitors. Police and emergency services were forced to close St George's Terrace around the refurbished building after a nearby pedestrian walkway was showered with rubble from the hotel's roof. Police and emergency services cordoned off the area for several hours, as glass and brick continued to fall on the street below.
Around the city damage was widespread with numerous roads closed due to fallen trees and other debris. The northern suburbs of Wanneroo, Stirling and the Perth CBD were worst hit, with the Avon Vale Primary School in Northam receiving significant structural damage and immediately saying it would be shut on Thursday. Samson Primary School, in the city's south, had damage to the roof of an undercover area, while Perth's Beatty Park Aquatic Centre, which was recently refurbished, was also damaged.
Power lines were brought down by falling trees in several suburbs, with police closing roads in Bayswater after several lines were felled by one tree. Western Power was responding to almost 500 hazards. A post on social media showed a Virgin flight apparently abandoning an attempted landing at Perth Airport as winds continued to gust.
School leavers' celebrations at Rottnest Island and Dunsborough were dampened by the unseasonal weather. Thousands of schoolies celebrating on Rottnest Island were battered by winds of up to 117km/h. Ferry companies are keeping a watch on conditions before deciding whether services would run on schedule on Thursday. At the Dunsborough Lakes campsite, 40 tents were destroyed, leaving hundreds of youngsters without anywhere to sleep, as clothes and belongings were blown into a nearby creek.
Boats in Bunbury, Mosman Park and Bull Creek were sheared from moorings by the strong winds. Surf Lifesaving WA closed all metropolitan and South West beaches because of dangerous conditions. The cold front crossed the coast at Cape Naturaliste at 2.30pm WST, with forecasters warning of wind gusts up to 125km/h into the evening. In regional areas, Dwellingup recorded wind speeds of 89km/h winds and Esperance 94km/h. The Bureau of Meteorology advised severe thunderstorms were likely to produce damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding in parts of the Goldfields, Eucla, South Interior and South East Coastal districts.

HEALTH THREATS -

Feds Shut Down Organic Peanut Processing Plant - The FDA shut down a large organic peanut processing plant in New Mexico, citing health concerns.
According to the FDA, the plant had sloppy health practices which resulted in eleven batches over a twelve year time span testing positive for salmonella. A recent outbreak of Salmonella Bredeney, which reportedly sickened 41 people across 20 states was linked to the peanut butter processed at the Sunland facility.
"This was the FDA's first use of its registration suspension authority, under the Food Safety Modernization Act. This new authority enables the agency to take this action when food manufactured, processed, packed, received, or held by a facility has a reasonable probability of causing serious adverse health consequences or death to humans or animals, and other conditions are met."
One wonders, however, at the selectivity of the FDA in its choices of targets. For example, the pharmaceutical company Baxter last year recalled 300,000 Preflucel influenza vaccines due to what it says is an excessive number of adverse events. This was not the first problem with Baxter, however. "Baxter International Inc. in Austria 'unintentionally contaminated samples with the bird flu virus that were used in laboratories in 3 neighbouring countries, raising concern about the potential spread of the deadly disease'. Austria, Germany, Slowenia and the Czech Republic - these are the countries in which labs were hit with dangerous viruses. Not by bioterrorist commandos, but by Baxter. In other words: One of the major global pharmaceutical players seems to have lost control over a virus which is considered by many virologists to be one of the components leading some day to a new pandemic."
Baxter is not the only pharmaceutical company which has come under scrutiny. Concerns have emerged about the safety of AIDS vaccines developed by Aventis Pasteur as well as by the flagship for Big Pharma, Bayer. And on November 21, the FDA granted approval for yet another Baxter vaccine.

RECALLS & ALERTS

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

**A single 'yes' will wipe away
a thousand 'no's'.**
Richard Childress


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.6 SERAM, INDONESIA
Continuing cluster of moderate quakes in DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

Yesterday -
11/26/12 -
5.1 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.3 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.5 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
5.5 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE
Continuing cluster of moderate quakes in DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

Western China - No casualties reported after 5.5-magnitude quake jolts Xinjiang. The quake, which struck Ruoqiang County in the Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture of Bayingolin at 1:33 p.m., damaged some houses in the county's Lop Nur Township. The quake struck at early Monday afternoon near the town of Ruoqiang in the vast but lightly populated region.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
- Tropical storm Bopha was located approximately 295 nm southeast of Chuuk, Micronesia.

Hurricane Sandy worse than Hurricane Katrina - Gov. Cuomo acknowledged that far more people died as a result of Katrina’s fury, than Sandy’s. But he said last month’s superstorm caused more property damage, and affected a greater number of people. The state will seek a whopping $42 billion in federal disaster aid.
“Hurricane Katrina, in many ways, was not as impactful as Hurricane Sandy, believe it or not. Because of the density of New York, the number of people affected, the number of properties affected was much larger in Hurricane Sandy than Hurricane Katrina. That puts the entire conversation, I believe, into focus.” The cost estimate issued by Cuomo - $41.9 billion, about $10 billion more the number he floated a few weeks ago - represents the most detailed accounting yet of Sandy’s financial toll on the city, the surrounding counties and the state.
A total of $32.8 billion will be needed to cover “repairs and restoration” — and $9.1 billion to safeguard New York’s electrical grid, highway and subway tunnels, and cell phone networks ahead of future superstorms. Asking New Yorkers to foot the bill alone “would incapacitate the state." The largest chunk of the money sought for repairs and restoration, $9.7 billion, would pay for housing. Other elements of the request include $7.3 billion for transit, roads and bridges; $6 billion to cover business losses, and $1.6 billion to cover government expenses.
“This is probably the worst economic crisis IN NEW YORK HISTORY, CERTAINLY THE WORST NATURAL DISASTER."
“Make no mistake, this will not be an easy task, particularly given the impending fiscal cliff, and a Congress that has been much less friendly to disaster relief than in the past." A “spending bill of this size always faces significant hurdles, even more so in this Congress.”
Comparing Sandy with Hurricanes Katrina, and Rita, which struck a month after Katrina in 2005 - Louisiana lost 214,700 homes as a result of the two storms; Sandy wrecked 305,000 homes just in New York. There were 800,000 power outages in Louisiana, compared with more than 2 million in New York. And while 18,700 businesses were lost to the hurricanes in Louisiana, Sandy affected more than 265,300 businesses across the Empire State. “This storm affected many, many more people and places than Katrina. Katrina had a human toll that thankfully we have not paid in this region. And Katrina was a different story of government involvement and government action. But, just in terms of impact, at the end of the day I think you have a very strong case just in terms of the numbers.” Sandy is blamed for 135 deaths in the U.S., including 60 in New York. Katrina was responsible for 1,833 deaths.

Hawaii hasn't been threatened by a major tropical cyclone since 2009 - and with the 2012 hurricane season officially wrapped up Friday, it's safe to say it was another quiet year. "We thought it might be a little bit of a below-normal season, but it ended up being even weaker than that."

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

UK Floods, Worst Flooding Since 2007 - The UK looks set to experience its worst series of floods since at least the great floods of 2007 when areas that had never flooded in living memory experienced what would turn out to be their worst floods in over 150 years.
The latest of a series of heavy rain fall induced flooding is being experienced by the south and south west areas of England and Wales, with over 500 flood warnings in place nation wide, as one of the wettest summers on record had left the ground saturated, unable to soak up additional heavy rain fall that is resulting in the failure of drainage systems. The current wave of flooding follows on from highly damaging flooding earlier in the year (September) that literally resulted in roads and foundations of buildings being washed away that were subsequently demolished.
Increasing volatility in the extremes of weather that the UK is facing - a drought during the first 3 months of the year gave way extraordinarily heavy rainfall from April onwards, continuing in June, and July with rainfall of as much as 225% of the annual average. The above-average rainfall has continued into this month which looks set to turn out to be another record month for rainfall. In 2007 the high rainfall was mainly concentrated during the 3 summer months of May, June, and July. There is a continuing risk of severe flooding going into the final month of this year which means that this year could turn out to be far more costly in terms of flood damage than was 2007, as any further heavy rainfall will have nowhere to run off to. And there is the likelihood of a continuation of the trend into early 2013.
Global Weirding? The melting of the sea ice at the north and south poles effects atmospheric air current circulations such as diverting the Jet Stream which means instead of warm air flowing form the Gulf of Mexico they get cold air blowing in from the North East polar region, and hence whilst on average the planet warms, in the UK the weather becomes far more erratic as the Jet Stream literally twists and turns and develops random kinks which means one day they can experience far warmer than average temperatures for the year and the next day theycould be an for an arctic freeze.
The consequence of global warming / weirding for the people of Britain this winter is to expect very erratic temperature changes, which means be prepared for surprise deep freezes that are likely to even catch the weather forecasters off guard over the coming winter months and well into the new year. This will likely result in further severe risk for flooding due to quick thawing of deep snowfall. (charts, graphs and photos)

HEALTH THREATS -

Latest coronavirus cases prompt WHO call for vigilance - The reporting of four more novel coronavirus infections in recent weeks, raising the total to six, has prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) to suggest that governments consider a major escalation of testing for the virus, a potentially burdensome undertaking.

Cases of Marburg, Ebola climb in Uganda - An outbreak of Marburg hemorrhagic fever has grown to 20 cases in western Uganda, and 10 people in two of Uganda's central districts have contracted Ebola hemorrhagic fever.

Traffic pollution tied to autism risk - Babies who are exposed to lots of traffic-related air pollution in the womb and during their first year of life are more likely to become autistic, suggests a new study.

Monday, November 26, 2012

**You can't always wait for the storm to pass.
Sometimes you have to work in the rain.**
Richard Childress


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.1 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
5.1 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE
Cluster of moderate quakes continues in DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

Yesterday -
11/25/12 -
None 5.0 or larger.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
- Tropical depression 26 was located approximately 285 nm southeast of Chuuk, Micronesia.

In the Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone Boldwin was located approximately 475 nm south of Diego Garcia.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Many parts of the UK are already under water - Now Northeast England and north Wales are braced for possible flooding as the weather front which brought heavy rain to southern England moves north. There are almost 300 flood warnings and 300 flood alerts in England and Wales, and two flood alerts in Scotland.
This weekend 816 homes were flooded, mainly in south-west England. Two people have died in the storms - a woman killed by a falling tree in Exeter and a man whose car crashed into a swollen river in Cambridgeshire. Devon and Cornwall were particularly badly hit, along with Malmesbury in Wiltshire and Kempsey in Worcestershire. There had been about 60 mm (2.5 in) of rain in south-west England over the weekend.
"A weather front will slowly move across north England and north Wales on Monday, and it's here that we are likely to see some further serious flooding." County Durham, Teesside, North Yorkshire and the Conwy area of north Wales are expected to be worst affected. The Met Office has issued an Amber weather warning for 50-70 mm (2-3 in) of rain by the end of the day.
Many roads have been closed due to flooding, particularly across the South West of England and the Midlands. National Rail said the lines would remain closed between Exeter St Davids, Tiverton Parkway and Yeovil Junction on Monday. Insurance companies are warning that a lack of progress in talks with the government could leave 200,000 homes without cover against flood damage. Tuesday's all-weather horse racing meeting at Southwell in Nottinghamshire has been abandoned due to rising flood waters.
In Malmesbury, four people were rescued from their homes after what the mayor called the WORST FLOODING THERE IN 70 YEARS. Residents of Kempsey, Worcestershire, criticised the village's new £1.5m flood defences which they say has made the flooding worse than in 2007. In Plymouth, Devon, about 60 people were evacuated due to safety concerns in a dozen locations and there were numerous reports of people being stuck in their cars. A number of homes have been evacuated after a large landslide caused by heavy rain in Old Sodbury near Chipping Sodbury in Gloucestershire.
"Our estimate is that about 20,000 homes have been protected by flood defences that have built in the past few years." But the events of the last two days "should be a wake-up call for a government that needs to grip this issue and do so quickly. "We know that flash flooding is increasing because of climate change and there's now little we can do to stop it, but the government must act to make sure people aren't left without insurance when the worst does happen." (video)

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Summer drought causes hay shortage in Michigan - The long summer drought caused a severe hay shortage in Michigan, and prices for the commodity have skyrocketed. As a result, farmers, rescue groups and private owners are struggling to feed their stocks.

Sea changes harming ocean now could someday undermine marine food chain. New research by Seattle scientists shows that pteropods — tiny snail-like sea creatures crucial to marine food webs — are being damaged decades earlier than expected by ocean acidification, the souring of seas from human-caused carbon-dioxide emissions.
Scientists years ago figured out that a group of tiny snail-like sea creatures crucial to marine food webs may one day be an early victim of changing ocean chemistry. Researchers predicted that pteropods, shelled animals known as sea butterflies, could begin dissolving by 2038 as human-caused carbon-dioxide emissions begin souring the seas in a process known as ocean acidification. But new research concludes that corrosive seas are damaging pteropods right now — decades earlier than expected. And that damage was recorded in the south Atlantic Ocean, where surface pH doesn't dip as low as it has off the Washington coast or in Puget Sound.
The finding suggests that changing sea chemistry already could be harming pteropods in the Northwest, with potentially vast implications for the marine food chain. "This is really an important discovery because here in the Northwest, our pink salmon, for example, are dependent on pteropods for survival in the open ocean in their first year of life. More than 50 percent of their diets are these pteropods."
Scientists have long known that greenhouse-gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels were being taken up by the seas and slowly changing ocean chemistry, but research in recent years shows those changes are coming far faster than initially expected. As a result, scientists in laboratories around the world have been scrambling to figure out how those changes will affect marine life.
This lab work has shown that increasing carbon dioxide in the oceans eventually could kill, endanger or alter the behavior of many marine organisms, from crab and squid to clownfish and clams. The most sensitive species are those that rely on calcium carbonate to form shells or other body parts, such as the inner parts of many fish ears. Significant changes to important species are expected to ripple though the food chain. Pteropods, which are eaten by many fish, among a mere handful of marine species worldwide being impacted right now. The others are Pacific oysters along the Northwest coast and tropical corals in the South Pacific."It was a surprise to me to see that level of damage in a wild field population. I think we should take it as another warning signal."
Like corals, pteropods are central to many ocean ecosystems. They're not much bigger than pepper grains, but they eat plankton and occur in great clusters that are easily scooped up by fish. "They're a great example of some tiny not-charismatic creature that is incredibly important. They're small, but carry an enormous amount of nutrition and are eaten even by very big fish. If you're in the Antarctic and see a beautiful emperor penguin, it exists by eating fish under the sea ice. And those fish eat pteropods."
Pteropods create extremely thin shells that are highly susceptible to chemical changes in seawater. The shells are dissolving. While the damage wasn't enough to kill the animals, it weakened them, making them more vulnerable to predators and infection. The degree of dissolution worsened in creatures taken from waters containing more carbon dioxide.
Because deep frigid water normally holds more carbon dioxide, its pH is naturally lower than that of surface waters. South Atlantic waters, naturally, would dissolve pteropods if they lived at depths below 1,000 meters. But these creatures were being dissolved in some cases just 200 meters below the sea surface — up where pteropods actually live. hat deep water has always welled up from below, but the addition of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels had pushed it past the threshold that pteropods can withstand.
"The deep water coming up just keeps getting more and more acidic." The researchers only saw particularly serious damage in one spot, which left other questions unanswered. "Was that a worse-case event that happened to hit that site? Or is it common or persistent there? I'm sure someone is looking at that right now." It's too soon to fully grasp the implications of the work, especially in the Pacific Northwest. One population of pteropods off Vancouver Island appears already to have begun declining; it just isn't clear why. But another, similar species nearby actually seemed to be growing in number. "We definitely need to check this out more."

RECALLS & ALERTS

Sunday, November 25, 2012

**Great spirits have always encountered
violent opposition from mediocre minds.**
Albert Einstein


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
None 5.0 or larger.
Cluster of moderate quakes in DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE (54+ since late last night)

Yesterday -
11/24/12 -
5.3 MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.1 NEAR S. COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

11/23/12 -
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 LUZON, PHILIPPINES
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA

11/22/12 -
5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.8 SALTA, ARGENTINA
5.2 KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA REGION

Japan - A 4.9 earthquake shook eastern Japan on Saturday, swaying buildings in Tokyo at 5:59 p.m. (0859 GMT). No tsunami warning was issued.
Japan should be prepared for the possibility of a magnitude-10 earthquake - although the chances of a temblor that size are slim, a seismologist said. “But if we think of what could happen, with the maximum in mind, we can make a swift response.”
The world’s largest recorded earthquake was the magnitude-9.5 Valdivia earthquake off the coast of Chile in 1960, rupturing a 1,000-kilometer fault. A magnitude-10 earthquake would be 30 times more powerful than the magnitude-9.0 Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011. A magnitude-10 quake is possible in theory if a large fault slips.
If a temblor of such a scale should strike, the underground rupture would continue for 20 minutes to an hour, meaning tsunami could hit coasts before the shaking subsides. If a 3,000-kilometer stretch from the Japan Trench to the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench along the Pacific Ring of Fire has a slip of 60 meters, that would constitute a magnitude-10 earthquake. The energy of a magnitude-11 quake, 30 times more powerful than a magnitude-10 temblor, would be equivalent to that of the asteroid impact that is believed to have caused the extinction of the dinosaurs 65.5 million years ago. Such a quake would cause a shift extending more than 20,000 kilometers. The seismologist concluded that consideration would not be needed for such an earthquake.

Iran - August quake disaster leaves 100,000 without shelter. As winter settles in a remote province of Iran, a pair of earthquakes that devastated the area in mid-August will likely claim new lives.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

New Zealand - Mt Ruapehu could erupt 'with little or no warning'. GNS says the risk of Mt Ruapehu erupting has not changed despite an eruption on nearby Mt Tongariro earlier this week. Samples taken from Ruapehu's crater lake this week show signs of unrest beneath the surface and scientists say it could erupt at any time.
Lingering ash from the volcanic eruption disrupted flights across parts of the North Island on Thursday, as scientists warned Mount Tongariro could blow again at any time. Volcano watchers driving along State Highway 46 for a look at Mount Tongariro are being advised to take extra care. The NZ Transport Agency is advising motorists to avoid stopping on the highway. The sulphurous smell from the volcano has been noticed in Manawatu and Hawke's Bay.
The Taupo District Mayor has described the response to Mount Tongariro's eruption as a total overreaction. Following Wednesday afternoon's eruption, some flights over the Central Plateau were cancelled, a Civil Defence alert issued, and a three-kilometre exclusion zone set up. The Te Maari crater will continue to spew steam for months, if not years to come, and there's a high chance of another eruption. But predicting ongoing activity is not an exact science.

TSUNAMIS / HIGH WAVES -

California - After 2011 devastation from the Japan quake, California port building a “tsunami-resistant" harbor. It doesn’t matter if the earth sways in Chile, Alaska or Japan, the formation of the sea floor along the U.S. West Coast generally aims any tsunami surges at the tiny California port town of Crescent City. Churning water rushes into the boat basin and then rushes out, lifting docks off their pilings, tearing boats loose and leaving the city’s main economic engine looking as if it has been bombed.
That’s what happened in March 2011, when the Japanese earthquake sparked a tsunami that sank 11 boats, damaged 47 others and destroyed two-thirds of the harbor’s docks. Port officials are hoping that tsunami is among the last of many that have forced major repairs in Crescent City, a tiny commercial fishing village on California’s rugged northern coast. Officials are spending $54 million to build the West Coast’s first harbor able to withstand the kind of tsunami expected to hit once every 50 years — the same kind that hit in 2011, when the highest surge in the boat basin measured 8.1 feet (2.5 meters) and currents were estimated at 22 feet (6.7 meters) per second.
Officials are building 244 new steel pilings that will be 30 inches (76 centimeters) in diameter and 70 feet (21 meters) long. Thirty feet (9 meters) or more will be sunk into bedrock. The dock nearest the entrance will be 16 feet (5 meters) long and 8 feet (2.4 meters) deep to dampen incoming waves. The pilings will extend 18 feet (5.5 meters) above the water so that surges 7 ½ feet (2.3 meters) up and 7 ½ feet down will not rip docks loose.
Crescent City was not the only West Coast port slammed by the tsunami, which was generated by the magnitude-9.0 earthquake in Japan. The waves ripped apart docks and sank boats in Santa Cruz, California, and did similar damage in Brookings, Oregon, just north of Crescent City. But their geographical location doesn’t make them as vulnerable to multiple tsunamis. “Normally, Crescent City takes the hit for all of us." Since a tidal gauge was installed in the boat basin in 1934, this small port has been hit by 34 tsunamis, large and small. It typically suffers the most damage and the highest waves on the West Coast.
The sea floor funnels surges into the mouth of Crescent City’s harbor, and the harbor’s configuration magnifies them, experts say. A wave generated by an earthquake in Alaska on Good Friday, 1964, killed 11 people and wiped out 29 city blocks. That was 10 years before the boat basin was even built. When the waves hit in 2011, the port was still repairing damages from a tsunami that hit in 2006.
The March 2011 tsunami was a wake-up call for communities up and down the West Coast. Many improved tsunami evacuation plans and held mock evacuations. But some experts say the West Coast is still not taking the threat seriously enough. “Many ports on the West Coast are in denial as to their tsunami hazard."

TROPICAL STORMS -
No tropical storms.

In the Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone 02s (Boldwin) was located approximately 430 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Does not threaten land.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Britain - Severe flood warnings are in place as saturated parts of the UK are hit by more heavy rain and strong winds. In some areas of Cornwall people have been told to leave their homes as floodwater and torrential rain caused "serious threats to life and property". The Environment Agency has more than 100 flood warnings and about 200 flood alerts in place in England and Wales. And the Met Office has issued an amber weather warning for heavy rain.
"Rest centres" have been set up for residents in the villages facing severe warnings. But river levels around Millbrook have dropped and a rest centre opened there has since been closed. Roads have been closed across the region due to flooding. Exmouth in Devon has been cut off, with the A376 closed by police The M5 is closed southbound, while the M48 is closed in both directions due to flooding. National Rail said there were delays due to flooding and a landslip. The replacement buses have been cancelled on some routes. Network Rail said trains were likely to be disrupted between Exeter, Taunton and Bristol Temple Meads until Monday.
A pub landlord in Polperro said there had been warnings but "nobody knew it would get this bad. I was actually in my house and I heard a roar, and just looked outside the window and that was the first bit of water that just, just came down the hill, like a river running straight down the road. We were given warnings from Floodline, and they just said like to take care, we were never given any firm warning that you had to evacuate and no one knew to expect it this bad." A body thought to be that of a man who fell into a canal in fog in Watford has been found.
The Met Office has been forecasting heavy rain and strong winds across all parts of the country over the weekend. The Environment Agency said strong winds would increase the risk of flash flooding as drainage channels were likely to become blocked with wind-blown debris. "The rain will spread north and east, increasing flood risk in north-east and north-west England on Sunday. The picture remains unsettled for the start of next week." The south west of England had seen between one and two inches of rain (25mm to 50mm) during Saturday evening, but the worst had passed. It would now be dry for a time with further showers into Sunday morning.
Strong winds of between 60mph and 70mph could also whip the south of England and East Anglia in the early hours of Sunday. The weather system bringing the weather will move into northern England and southern Scotland on Sunday. "The flood warnings are a legacy of the really heavy rain we've had already so far this week. The rivers have been doing what rivers do best, flowing down hill, taking all that excess water away, but they've not managed to clear the backlog. That's why we've got flood warnings in place right now."
"More rain is forecast over the next few days and it's very easy to leave one's cosy home and just get struck by water and not realise how dangerous it is." On Thursday, a man died in floods after he became trapped in his car under a bridge in Chew Stoke near Bath.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Extreme Weather Threatens US Transportation - Extreme weather is a growing threat to the nation's lifelines -- its roads, bridges, railways, airports and transit systems. That's leaving states and cities searching for ways to brace for more catastrophes like Superstorm Sandy that are straining the nation. The nation's lifelines are getting hammered by extreme weather beyond what their builders imagined. That's leaving states and cities trying to come to terms with a new normal.

SPACE WEATHER -

Near-Earth Asteroid 2012 DA14 to narrowly miss Earth on February 15, 2013 - Discovered by the LaSagra observatory in southern Spain, the small asteroid 2012 DA14 will pass within about 3.5 Earth radii of the Earth's surface on February 15, 2013. Although its size is not well determined, this near-Earth asteroid is thought to be about 57 meters in diameter. Asteroid 2012 DA14 will pass inside the geosynchronous satellite ring, located about 35,800 km above the equator. Its orbit about the sun can bring it no closer to the Earth's surface than 3.2 Earth radii. On this date, the asteroid will travel rapidly from the southern evening sky into the northern morning sky with its closest Earth approach occurring about 19:26 UTC when it will achieve a magnitude of less than seven, which is somewhat fainter than naked eye visibility. About 4 minutes after its Earth close approach, there is a good chance it will pass into the Earth's shadow for about 18 minutes or so before reappearing from the eclipse. When traveling rapidly into the northern morning sky, 2012 DA14 will quickly fade in brightness. (projected path map)
Astronomers estimate that, when it’s closest to us, the asteroid will be about 21,000 miles (35,000 kilometers) away – much closer than Earth’s moon (about 240,000 miles away) – and closer even than some of our own orbiting satellites. Astronomers’ calculations of asteroid orbits can be trusted. After all, even decades ago, they knew enough about calculating orbits to send people to the moon and bring them safely back, and today we are able place our space vehicles in orbit around objects as small as asteroids. So 2012 DA14 won’t strike us in 2013. There was a remote possibility it might strike us in 2020, but that possibility has been ruled out also.
Earlier this year, when a collision between 2012 DA14 and Earth in 2020 was still possible, an astronomer clarified the risk - a 2020 collision between Earth and asteroid 2012 DA14 was only a “remote possibility... approximately one chance in 83,000, with additional remote possibilities beyond 2020. However, by far the most likely scenario is that additional observations, especially in 2013, will allow a dramatic reduction in the orbit uncertainties and the complete elimination of the 2020 impact possibility." It turned out they didn’t have to wait until 2013. By May, 2012, astronomers had ruled out even the remote possibility of a 2020 collision.
Still, 2012 DA14 and asteroids like it are sobering. Asteroid 2012 DA14 is a little guy, compared to some asteroids, although its size has not been pinned down precisely. If a space object 150 feet wide were to strike our planet, it wouldn’t be Earth-destroying. But it has been estimated that it would produce the equivalent of 2.4 megatons of TNT.
In 1908, in a remote part of Russia, an explosion killed reindeer and flattened trees. But no crater was ever found. Scientists now believe a small comet struck Earth. That event has been estimated at 3 to 20 megatons. So 2012 DA14 is in the same approximate realm as the Tunguska comet (which, actually, might have been an asteroid instead). It would not destroy Earth, but it could flatten a city. About 70% of our world is covered by oceans. That means the most likely landing spot of any incoming asteroid is in the water – not on a city or other populated area.
The orbit of 2012 DA14 is an inclined ellipse. In other words, it’s tilted sightly with respect to Earth’s orbit around the sun, and, like Earth’s orbit, it’s not circular but elliptical. The asteroid spends most of its time well away from our planet. However, the path of the rock does bring it somewhat close to the Earth twice per orbit, or about every six months. The last time it passed us was on February 16 [2012], when it was about 2.5 million km (1.5 million miles) away, equal to about 6 times the distance to the moon. That’s usually about the scale of these encounters — it misses us by quite a margin.
2012 DA14 will not hit us next year, or in 2020. However, it should be close enough to catch the attention of virtually everyone on Earth in February 2013, on what’s sure to be a media field day. On the day it passes, most of us won’t see it or be aware of its passage, in any way. The asteroid won’t alter the tides. It won’t cause volcanoes. It’ll just sweep closely past us – as millions of asteroids have done throughout Earth’s four-and-a-half-billion-year history.

HEALTH THREATS -

A second person has died from a new respiratory coronavirus that so far has infected six people. Coronaviruses are a group of viruses ranging from the common cold to SARS - severe acute respiratory syndrome - virus. The new coronavirus has been linked to either Saudi Arabia or Qatar.
One man has been transferred to Britain for treatment. "Until more information is available, it is prudent to consider that the virus is likely more widely distributed than just the two countries which have identified cases." The coronavirus was first detected in September and is genetically distinct from SARS. "Investigations are ongoing in areas of epidemiology, clinical management and virology, to look into the likely source of infection, the route of exposure, and the possibility of human-to-human transmission of the virus. Close contacts of the recently confirmed cases are being identified and followed up,"

RECALLS & ALERTS

Thursday, November 22, 2012

**HAPPY THANKSGIVING!**

No update on Friday.


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.2 KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA REGION

Yesterday -
11/21/12 -
5.4 SOUTH OF SUMBAWA, INDONESIA
5.2 OFFSHORE O'HIGGINS, CHILE
5.9 OFFSHORE O'HIGGINS, CHILE
5.1 OFFSHORE O'HIGGINS, CHILE
5.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

A strong 5.9-magnitude earthquake shook central Chile on Wednesday, causing office buildings in the capital to sway for almost a minute but authorities said no damage was reported and ruled out the possibility of tsunami.

New Zealand - Christchurch quake sequences settling down. The probability of a large earthquake hitting Canterbury continues to decline as the earthquake sequence settles down.
Latest aftershock probabilities show the chance of a magnitude 5.0 to 5.4 aftershock happening in the next year is now at 69 per cent - compared to 71 per cent last month and 82 per cent in January. There is now a 29 per cent chance of a magnitude 5.5 to 5.9 hitting before November 9, 2013, a 9 per cent possibility of a magnitude 6.0 to 6.4, and a 2 per cent chance of 6.5 to 6.9 aftershock. There is just a 1 in 100 chance of another magnitude 7.0 or higher like the 7.1 which struck Darfield on September 4, 2010, sparking the Canterbury earthquake sequence.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Vulcanologists in New Zealand say more eruptions are likely from Mount Tongariro, which sent a large plume of ash at least two kilometres into the air. Residents are reporting the sulphur is making it harder to breathe. After a century of quiet, it swas the second eruption from Tongariro in four months.
Tongariro eruptions could go on for nine months, a GNS volcanologist says. Based on the mountain's last cycle of eruptions in the 1890s, it could keep blowing its top intermittently for weeks, or months.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No tropical storms.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Wind, rain pummel U.S. Pacific Northwest - The Pacific Northwest is getting a taste of extreme weather - and are bracing for more - after a fierce storm swamped streets, toppled trees and large trucks, cut power to nearly 50,000 residents.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Climate change evident across Europe, says report - The effects of climate change are already evident in Europe and the situation is set to get worse, the European Environment Agency has warned. In a report, the agency says the past decade in Europe has been the warmest on record. It adds that the cost of damage caused by extreme weather events is rising, and the continent is set to become more vulnerable in the future.
A UN Environment Programme report also released on Wednesday shows a dangerous growth in the "emissions gap" - the difference between current carbon emission levels and those needed to avert climate change. "Every indicator we have in terms of giving us an early warning of climate change and increasing vulnerability is giving us a very strong signal. It is across the board, it is not just global temperatures. It is in human health aspects, in forests, sea levels, agriculture, biodiversity - the signals are coming in from right across the environment."
Climate change can increase existing vulnerabilities and deepen socio-economic imbalances in Europe. The combined impacts of projected climate change and socio-economic development is set to see the damage costs of extreme weather events continue to increase. As it currently stands, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change has set a target of limiting the rise in global mean temperature to 2C (3.6F) above pre-industrial levels.
But the report's authors warn that even if this target to mitigate warming is met, "substantial impacts on society, human health and ecosystems are projected to occur". To limit the impacts, experts say effective adaptation strategies need to be developed in order to minimise the risk to nations' infrastructure, homes and businesses. Examples of adaptation measures include using water resources more efficiently, adapting building codes to be able to withstand extreme weather events and building flood defences.
The report said the cost of damage caused by extreme weather events had increased from 9bn euros (£7bn) in the 1980s to 13bn euros in the 2000s. "We know that the main increase in damage costs from natural disasters has not been from climate change, as such, but more as a result of an increase in wealth, people and infrastructure in risk areas. But one of the key messages from the report is that in the future, with projected increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, we know that climate change will contribute to the increase in the cost of damage from extreme events."
On Monday, the World Bank published a report that warned that the world was "on track to a 4C [increase by the end of the century] marked by extreme heatwaves and life-threatening sea-level rise". It added that the world's poorest regions would be hardest hit by the warming, which was "likely to undermine efforts and goals". "A 4C warmer world can, and must be, avoided - we need to hold warming below 2C. Lack of action on climate change threatens to make the world our children inherit a completely different world than we are living in today." However, the UN Environment Programme warned that it was still possible to achieve the 2C target but time was running out. Data in the Emissions Gap Report showed that annual greenhouse gas emissions were now "14% above where they need to be in 2020".
"While governments work to negotiate a new international climate agreement to come into effect in 2020, they urgently need to put their foot firmly on the action pedal by fulfilling financial, technology transfer and other commitments under the UN climate convention treaties."

CIA Closes Its Climate Change Office - The Central Intelligence Agency has disbanded its Center on Climate Change and National Security, a unit formed in 2009 to monitor the interplay between a warming planet and intelligence and security challenges.
The creation of the office drew fire at the time from some Republicans, who said it was an unnecessary expense and a distraction from the agency’s focus on terrorism and other more immediate threats. The agency did not say whether the closing was related to budget constraints or other political pressures. The agency will continue to monitor the security and humanitarian challenges posed by climate change as part of its focus on economic security, but not in a stand-alone office.
“The C.I.A. for several years has studied the national security implications of climate change. As part of a broader realignment of analytic resources, this work continues to be performed by a dedicated team in a new office that looks at economic and energy matters affecting America’s national security. The mission and the resources devoted to it remain essentially unchanged.” The C.I.A. did not conduct its own scientific studies on climate change, instead relying on other government agencies and academic researchers. The National Research Council, an arm of the National Academies of Science, released an extensive report to the intelligence community last week on how it can better assess and respond to the impacts of climate change on vulnerable states.
A Senator from Wyoming has been the most vocal critic of the C.I.A.’s climate change work. He welcomed the closing of its office. “Closing the Climate Change Center at the C.I.A. was the right decision. I offered an amendment on the Senate floor to eliminate the center because it was unnecessary, wasteful and totally out of place. It’s critically important for the C.I.A. to focus its resources on preventing terrorism and keeping Americans safe.”

US food banks raise alarm as drought dents government supplies - The worst U.S. drought in more than half a century has weakened the safety net for the 50 million Americans who struggle to get enough to eat, and the nation's food banks are raising the alarm as the holiday season gets into gear.

HEALTH THREATS -

CDC reports increase in non-meningitis infections tied to outbreak - There have been 478 cases of fungal meningitis or related infections as of Nov. 19, plus 12 peripheral joint infections in areas such as the knees, hips, shoulders and elbows where people may have gotten the shots. Thirty-four people have died.
The CDC announced Tuesday that it is still receiving reports of infections more than seven weeks after the September recall of more than 17,000 vials of injections of the steroid made by the NECC; however, the pattern now reflects an uptick infections at the site where patients received the injection. Those infections include epidural abscesses, phlegmon (soft tissue infection), discitis (infection of disc space between vertebrae), vertebral osteomyelitis (a bone infection) or arachnoiditis (swelling of one of the spinal cord membranes).
The infections are being found in both people who have already been diagnosed with fungal meningitis and people who haven't been. The CDC said Wednesday that there may not be new infections in those people, but because the fungus tied to the outbreak -- Exserohilum rostratum -- is slow-growing, the infections may have been building up. "This isn't something new happening, but something that's coming to light after a much longer incubation period."
The most common of these non-meningitis infections, an epidural abscess, is a collection of puss near the site of the injection. The main symptom of this infection is back pain, but many of the patients who received these injections were treated for back pain, and may not realize another infection is present. While some people may experience swelling or redness, many won't, so the only way to determine the presence of an infection is through magnetic resonance imaging scans (MRI).
Last week House lawmakers questioned the chief of the Food and Drug Administration along with one of the owners of the New England Compounding Center about the current outbreak. They asked about the company's history of repeat violations and earlier FDA inspections of the firm that found non-sterile practices. the chief called for more oversight of compounding pharmacies, which are regulated by state health departments, while the owner plead the Fifth Amendment and did not answer the committee's questions.

RECALLS & ALERTS

Wednesday, November 21 , 2012

NASA’s Curiosity Rover on Mars has 'found something' - While the administration won’t confirm what it is just yet, they think it’s going to be “ONE FOR THE HISTORY BOOKS”.
NPR reports that one of the Curiosity’s on-board instruments has found something “really interesting”. That instrument is specifically the chemical lab that analyses the composition of the Martian surface."The exciting results are coming from an instrument in the rover called SAM. “We’re getting data from SAM as we sit here and speak, and the data looks really interesting. The science team is busily chewing away on it as it comes down."
SAM is a kind of miniature chemistry lab. Put a sample of Martian soil or rock or even air inside SAM, and it will tell you what the sample is made of. They recently put a soil sample in SAM, and the analysis shows something EARTHSHAKING. “This data is gonna be one for the history books. It’s looking really good."
Curiosity has already found evidence of a riverbed and some mystery metal particles its relatively short stint on Mars. NASA and the scientists from the Jet Propulsion Lab are doing their sums really carefully on this one, so they can’t tell us what it is until they’re absolutely sure.
NASA will hold a press conference about the results during the 2012 American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco from Dec. 3 to 7. Because it’s so potentially earth-shaking, the team remains cautious and is checking and double-checking their results. But while NASA is refusing to discuss the findings with anyone outside the team, especially reporters, other scientists are free to speculate.
“If it’s going in the history books, organic material is what I expect. It may be just a hint, but even a hint would be exciting.” rganic molecules are those that contain carbon and are potential indicators of life. Simple organic compounds wouldn’t be completely shocking, since these probably come from meteorites originating in the asteroid belt and probably are around on present-day Mars. But they would indicate that the building blocks for life are present on Mars and might only need the addition of water, which Mars had in the past, in order to produce organisms.
“If they found signatures of a very complex organic type, that would be astounding,” since they would likely be leftovers from complex life forms that once roamed Mars. But the odds of finding such a startling result in a sample of sand scooped from a random dune are “very, very low." Rumors have a way of spreading rapidly when it comes to any discussion of potential life on Mars. “When you keep things secret, people start thinking all kinds of crazy things.”

Mostly quiet again today.

**Don’t go through life, grow through life.**
Eric Butterworth


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G

Yesterday -
11/20/12 -
5.2 TAIWAN REGION
5.4 OFFSHORE O'HIGGINS, CHILE
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

11/19/12 -
5.2 PAKISTAN
5.0 MYANMAR
5.0 OFFSHORE O'HIGGINS, CHILE
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.9 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.4 EAST OF SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS

Japan - Quake survivors' blood pressure rising in Iwate. The number of people suffering from high blood pressure has increased in the coastal areas of Iwate Prefecture since the Great East Japan Earthquake.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

New Zealand's Mount Tongariro volcano has erupted, sending a black plume of gas and ash up to 2km into the air. The popular Tongariro Alpine Crossing walking track was closed on Wednesday afternoon (local time) and staff and police were urging people hiking the crossing to leave the mountain as quickly as possible.
An eruption earlier this year sent rocks smashing into a trampers hut. Wednesday's fine weather meant hundreds could be in the vicinity, but as the eruption happened in the afternoon most people would already be making their way down. "It's not a large-scale search and rescue exercise, there are no volcanic rocks in the eruption, just ash and gas." Staff were trying to get people off the crossing with a minimum of panic.
Civil Defence is monitoring the situation, but described the event as minor. A plume of smoke from the Te Maari Crater, on the northern side of Tongariro in the central North Island, was captured on web camera about 1.30pm (1130 AEDT). A light wind was blowing it towards the Kaimanawa Ranges to the east. The eruption prompted the volcanic alert level to be raised to "minor eruptive activity" and the aviation colour code to red - "eruption is forecast to be imminent and significant ash emission into the atmosphere likely".
Some media reported sources saying the eruption did not last long. Flights over the central North Island were being diverted away from the volcano. There were clear skies in the area and pilots could see the eruption smoke. Airways was waiting on more information from GNS before deciding if aircraft would be diverted even further from the volcano.
Last week, GNS warned there was increased activity underneath nearby Mt Ruapehu. In August, the upper Te Maari Crater erupted for the first time in more than a century, sending rocks falling within 1km of the crater, damaging Ketetahi Hut - one of four hikers' huts on the mountain. Light ash fell as far away as Taupo and Napier, while the smell of gas - similar to the "rotten eggs" smell experienced in Rotorua - had drifted to Wellington. ( Photo gallery )
Mt. Ruapehu - The temperature under the crater lake has risen to plus 800 degrees Celsius, while that of the lake itself does not exceed 20 degrees. Experts warn that this means there could be an eruption happening within the next few weeks or months.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No tropical storms.

Cyclone developing north of New Zealand - A tropical disturbance located between Solomon Islands and Vanuatu is moving slowly towards Fiji and is expected to turn into a cyclone. Both the Fiji Meteorological Office in Fiji and the Hawaii based Joint Typhoon Warning Center say it could become a significant tropical cyclone within 24 hours.

Madagascar - Funding shortage ahead of cyclone season. In past years, it has stocked 1,000 metric tons of food in vulnerable areas of the country, ahead of the cyclone season, which typically starts in November. However this year, due to funding shortfalls, it has only managed to deliver 544 tons.

HEALTH THREATS -

Signs of decline in H5N1 outbreaks - The number of reported H5N1 avian influenza outbreaks in poultry and wild birds has decreased since mid 2011 and was down sharply in the second quarter of this year.

E coli linked to fresh greens sickens 28 in five states - Federal and state health officials are investigating an Escherichia coli O157:H7 outbreak linked to mixed salad greens that has sickened at least 28 people in five East Coast states, most of them in New York.

RECALLS & ALERTS

Monday, November 19, 2012

Very quiet yesterday and so far today.

No update on Tuesday this week.

**In any situation,
the best thing you can do is the right thing;
the next best thing you can do is the wrong thing;
the worst thing you can do is nothing.**
Theodore Roosevelt


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.4 EAST OF SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS

Yesterday -
11/18/12 -
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

New Zealand - Scientists say the volcanic activity throughout the region is linked. Mount Tongariro erupted for the first time in around 100 years in August soscientists will be monitoring Mt Ruapehu closely over the coming weeks with fears the volcano could erupt at any time.
Scientists are trying to work out the nature of any possible eruption. "We think there has been a build-up of pressure underneath the crater lake and we are concerned if that pressure is released suddenly, we could have an eruption. The eruption in 2007 which threw rocks around the summit area and sent some lahars down the upper part of the mountain - that we believe was driven by a failure of a sealed zone like we're talking about at the moment."
"We've got massive vents that are spewing out hot steam and smoke and some fantastic craters that have been the result of the bombs that have come out of the crater on August the sixth." An exclusion zone's been set up to keep people away from the dangerous parts of the mountain and lahar warning systems are in place on and around the mountain. The Volcanic Alert Level is currently set at 1 or yellow to indicate signs of volcano unrest.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone Three was located about 395 nm east northeast of Chennai, India. The final warning on this system has been issued.

Shore's Toll 'Worse Than We Thought' - Nearly three weeks after Sandy came ashore on the New Jersey coast, some of the beach towns that made this area famous remain largely empty and dark, shells of their bustling summer selves. The scope of the destruction didn't come into focus for many homeowners until this weekend, when authorities began letting people back into communities still covered in mounds of sand and littered with debris. "Complete devastation."

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Superstorm hits Australia's east coast with 4000 lightning strikes in one hour - A damaging storm turned "day into night'' in Brisbane on Saturday, as lightning and winds brought down powerlines and left more than 6000 homes and businesses without electricity. The large storm, lasting about 15 minutes, swept over Brisbane following a short period of high humidity bringing lighting and high winds but no hail. Meanwhile, another severe thunderstorm warning had been issued for other parts of the state.
The Queensland State Emergency Service was busy cleaning up the Brisbane CBD after wild weather ripped through the city around 11am. In Ipswich, a small grass fire was sparked when lightning struck a crane next to the city's hospital just after 10am but the incoming rain extinguished it. In Ann Street in the CBD, a hotel roof collapsed under the storm, while another 72 calls for assistance were made asking for help with leaking roofs and fallen trees. "It turned day into night. It came quickly and then it left.''
A weather alert was posted by the Bureau of Meteorology just minutes before rain smacked the east coast, leaving thousands of people without power. Weatherzone reported more than 4000 lightning strikes within 80km of Brisbane in the space of one hour. 50 people were evacuated from an inner-city building after the storm caused a partial cave-in of the roof of a lodge in the inner suburb of Wilston. The storm also caused a minor fire in Seventeen Mile Rocks, in Brisbane's south-west, after a house was struck by lightning.
Police also reported they fallen trees across roads. Many homes and businesses had been left without power, particularly on Brisbane's southside. Considered the most dangerous storms, supercells develop where wind shear is present through a very unstable atmosphere. "Supercell thunderstorms are likely to produce severe weather. The wind shear leads to rotation within the storm and a longer lifespan." Supercells often cause very heavy rain and flash flooding, large hail, damaging winds gusts and occasionally tornadoes. "A northwest wind will bring hot air out of the Gulf (of Carpentaria) and the NT. There'll be more moisture around on Saturday and a trough will be right on us, providing lift and moisture. We're about a month behind with our storm season, but moisture levels are rising." ( good photos)

Sunday, November 18, 2012

New Zealand - Scientists are warning there are heightened signs of volcanic activity at Mt Ruapehu and an eruption could be just weeks away. GNS Science experts say pressure is building up in the crater lake at the volcano and there is now a high risk of an eruption. Mt Ruapehu last erupted in 2007 and usually does not give any immediate warning that it is going to erupt. Pressure build-up was thought to have caused the 2007 eruption and a smaller eruption in 2006.

**I know for sure that what we dwell on
is who we become.**
Oprah Winfrey


LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
None 5.0 or larger.

Yesterday -
11/17/12 -
5.1 TONGA REGION
5.2 BANDA SEA
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.0 FIJI REGION
5.9 TONGA REGION
5.7 VANUATU

11/16/12 -
6.5 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 TAJIKISTAN
5.3 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.6 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
5.0 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE

New Virginia earthquake map reveals damage - Last year's 5.8-magnitude earthquake that hit eastern Virginia caused a significant amount of damage to homes in the area, much of which was overlooked because it happened in a sparsely populated region.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Chile calls off search for European hikers who disappeared in snowstorm on Patagonian volcano. A search for three European hikers who got lost in a snowstorm on a volcano in Patagonia ended Friday after a nine-day operation involving more than 500 people. High winds, rain and fog grounded two helicopters for much of the search. Bad weather meant they could hardly use thermal imaging cameras.
“In nine days of searching, we’ve only found minimal clues, and we can’t link them directly to these people. Based on available evidence and the technical evaluation of experts in this kind of rescue, we unfortunately have to call off this phase of the search." Local guides planned to keep looking on the Quetrupillan volcano for any sign. Area residents recalled that once a Japanese tourist wasn’t found on the snow-covered volcano for months, until summer heat finally exposed the body. Families of the hikers declined to comment on the end of the search.
The three men haven’t been heard from since a snowstorm hit Nov. 7 while they were hiking atop Quetrupillan, which is in Chile’s Villarica National Park. The search began the next day and grew to include hundreds of university students, police officers, troops and mountain rescue experts on both sides of Chile’s border with Argentina. The park’s volcanos are popular because paths lead right up to the craters at the top. But they can also be deadly when hikers aren’t prepared for sudden storms. Quetrupillan is covered with glaciers.

TSUNAMIS / HIGH WAVES -
A sudden 6.5 quake in long-quiet Alaska region sets off alarms - The quake took place at 10:42 a.m. on Monday in Cordova, 165 miles south of Cape Yakataga in the Gulf of Alaska. While one or two locals felt a little shake, rattle and roll, the event went mostly unnoticed -- except at the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center in Palmer, Alaska.
"Oh yeah, the alarms were going off. The seismometers are live, real-time feeds. The first alarm that goes off is a voice alarm. Then a beeping alarm. We knew within two minutes the location and magnitude." Because of the quake's location, more than 150 miles offshore, a tsunami was not expected and no watch, warning or advisory was issued by the center. However, this quake definitely caught the attention of geologists and emergency management specialists.
"This was a big quake, 6.5, and it took place on the edge of the Yakatat Block. The last time we have seen any significant activity in this area was in the 1980s. The northeast area of the Pacific Ocean has been a little quiet and ideally we'd like to see more activity in the range of 3-4 magnitude. This event definitely perked our ears up." Coincidentally, a team of 18 geologists, emergency management specialists and local responders from state and federal agencies and nine communities had just been in Cordova the prior week for a Tsunami Operations Workshop.
The Yakatat Block, is an area of the earth's crust along southcentral coast of Alaska. It converges with the Pacific plate along its southern edge, with the Fairweather Fault to the north and the Aleutian Megathrust to the west. The Yakatat Block has been quiet back to 1987. What is especially concerning is that after such a long period of inactivity, there is a lot of built up pressure and the likelihood is greater that there will be a significant quake with the potential to generate a tsunami -- similar to what happened in 1964.
The 9.2-magnitude great Alaska earthquake of 1964 is still the second highest recorded earthquake anywhere on the planet. Of the 132 deaths associated with the event, 122 were attributed to the Pacific-wide tsunami it generated.
It is not a question of "if", but when and knowing what to expect is the key to recovery preparedness. "There are the big myths. That a tsunami is a giant wall of water, that there is only one wave, that it is something you can surf -- or that it simply won't happen." The great wall of water is perhaps one of the most important myths for the team to debunk. "For Cordova and other Alaska coastal communities, the more likely scenario is a wave in the neighborhood of one meter. And that is a very destructive wave. It is really important for everyone to understand the severity of the small wave."
After the 2011 Japan quake, a tsunami hit in the Santa Cruz Yacht Harbor, 14 hours after the Japan earthquake. Police patrolled the waterfront asking the public to move away from the harbor area, but the public did not heed the request. Instead, people could be seen walking along the docks, lined along the shoreline with cameras and packed shoulder to shoulder along an elevated walkway waiting for the tsunami like the next big act at SeaWorld.
At first the docks start to roll gently, but in an instant the water silently charged through the harbor with speed and force, tossing boats up on docks and snapping floats into pieces as the crowd ooo's and ahh's. In that instance, the height of the wave never rose above the bank, but the destruction was evident. One very lucky man managed to ride out the wave standing on a dock surrounded by boats ripped from their slips. The speed and force of the wave's exit was impressive too. This leads to the second myth: there is only one wave. The third myth is that you should hop in your boat and ride it out.
"There were reflections from the Japan earthquake across the Pacific Ocean for seven days. There is a lot of energy behind a tsunami." Tsunami waves can travel across the open ocean at speeds well over 600 mph, as fast as a jet flies. Speed is influenced by the depth of the ocean. But the potential threat from a wave is higher as it reaches shore. In an area enclosed by land, such as Prince William Sound, the energy can reflect, reverberating and sloshing waves around as if confined in a bath tub.
The town of Cordova is considered a Tsunami Ready Community, with a designated evacuation plan and personnel trained in recovery preparedness. A weekly siren that goes off at noon can be heard all over town on Wednesdays telling the community that in a real emergency, they will be directed to safety. Additional sirens are in the plan for outlying neighborhoods and signs have been ordered telling people to move to higher ground in the event of a tsunami.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone Three was located about 385 nm south of Kolkata, India.

A deep depression lying 500 km south-east of Chennai, India, has intensified into a cyclonic storm and is expected to cross the coast between Nagapattinam in Tamil Nadu and Nellore in Andhra Pradesh tomorrow, bringing in torrential rains in the region.

SPACE WEATHER -

HUMONGOUS ERUPTION - A truly gigantic explosion happened on the sun Friday. On Nov. 16th, magnetic fields snaking halfway across the sun's southern hemisphere erupted in tandem, producing a prominence so big, it didn't fit inside the image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory. The sun unleashed the monster eruption of super-hot plasma in back-to-back solar storms captured on camera by a NASA spacecraft. The giant sun eruption, called a solar prominence, occurred at 1 a.m. EST (0600 GMT). The blast hurled a CME into space, but the cloud does not appear to be heading for Earth. A movie of the event shows magnetic fields in concerted motion across an expanse of solar "terrain" more than 700,000 km wide. Observations have shown that such wide-ranging eruptions are not uncommon on the sun - the great Global Eruption of August 2010 being the iconic example

HEALTH THREATS -

Growing concerns over 'in the air' transmission of Ebola - Canadian scientists have shown that the deadliest form of the ebola virus could be transmitted by air between species. In experiments, they demonstrated that the virus was transmitted from pigs to monkeys without any direct contact between them.
The researchers say they believe that limited airborne transmission might be contributing to the spread of the disease in some parts of Africa. They are concerned that pigs might be a natural host for the lethal infection. Ebola viruses cause fatal haemorrhagic fevers in humans and many other species of non human primates.
The infection gets into humans through close contact with the blood, secretions, organs and other bodily fluids from a number of species including chimpanzees, gorillas and forest antelope. The fruit bat has long been considered the natural reservoir of the infection. But a growing body of experimental evidence suggests that pigs, both wild and domestic, could be a hidden source of Ebola Zaire - the most deadly form of the virus.
Now, researchers from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency and the country's Public Health Agency have shown that pigs infected with this form of Ebola can pass the disease on to macaques without any direct contact between the species. In their experiments, the pigs carrying the virus were housed in pens with the monkeys in close proximity but separated by a wire barrier. After eight days, some of the macaques were showing clinical signs typical of ebola and were euthanised. One possibility is that the monkeys became infected by inhaling large aerosol droplets produced from the respiratory tracts of the pigs.
The scientists say that their findings could explain why some pig farmers in the Philippines had antibodies in their system for the presence of a different version of the infection called Ebola Reston. The farmers had not been involved in slaughtering the pigs and had no known contact with contaminated tissues.
The transmission in the air is not similar to influenza or other infections. In most human outbreaks in Africa, "the reality is that they are contained and they remain local, if it was really an airborne virus like influenza is it would spread all over the place, and that's not happening." There have been anecdotal accounts of pigs dying at the start of human outbreaks.
If pigs do play a part, it could help contain the virus. "If they do play a role in human outbreaks it would be a very easy point to intervene. It would be easier to vaccinate pigs against Ebola than humans." Other experts in the field were concerned about the idea that Ebola was susceptible to being transmitted by air even if the distance the virus could travel was limited. "The thought of airborne transmission is pretty frightening."
At present, an outbreak of ebola in Uganda has killed at least two people near the capital Kampala. Last month, Uganda declared itself Ebola-free after an earlier outbreak of the disease killed at least sixteen people in the west of the country.

RECALLS & ALERTS