Thursday, January 10 , 2013

**It is the job of thinking people
not to be on the side of the executioners.**
Albert Camus

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
Continuing aftershocks in the Aegean Sea

Yesterday -
1/9/13 -
5.0 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.1 LA PAZ, BOLIVIA
5.1 NEPAL
5.0 CARLSBERG RIDGE (small cluster of 4.0+)
6.0 MYANMAR
Continuing aftershocks in the Aegean Sea

MYSTERY BOOMS -
U.S. -
Indiana - 1/7/13 - Loud booms were heard by many overnight and so far explained by none. It turns out, the booms were heard not just here, but across the country.
The Vanderburgh Sheriff reports that it was around the area near Green River and Lynch where they received most of these calls about this strange boom. It happened Monday evening, and crews investigated, but authorities and people who heard it are still scratching their heads. "The sound was like a war bomb." "A huge explosion, like definitely knew it wasn't a firecracker going off. I've never heard anything like it, very disturbing."
Evansville Dispatch got several calls between 9:30 and 11 Monday night reporting an explosion. "We obviously dispatched cars. I believe the EFD dispatched crews, the EPD. At the end of the day, we're not able to find anything." Crews scoured the area, but didn't find anything. "It had to be something a little bit different than the typical explosion." But what?
It wasn't an earthquake. The USGS doesn't have reports of any activity in our area. Some people have suggested a nearby mine was firing off explosions. But they said their permit does not allow them to blast from dusk until dawn. The Air Force says it wasn't performing any military drills, either. Authorities say, at least for now, it will remain a mystery.
"We're going to write it off as the unexplained at this point until somebody gives us an explanation." Interestingly, there have been reports of unexplained booms from Arizona to Rhode Island. No one has been able to explain them.
UPDATE - One resident said it happened multiple times over 2 nights in Evansville.
Utah - 1/8/13 - Hundreds of people from Weber County to Utah County, and some as far north as Rock Springs, Wyoming reported that they felt shaking or heard loud booms Tuesday night around 9 p.m.
The cause remains a mystery. Experts at the seismology department at the University of Utah confirmed there was seismic activity measured just behind the Capitol building. “There are low-frequency signals that are usually from the atmosphere. The infra-sound network is most sensitive to signals that come from the atmosphere, so we think this was an above ground even. These can be airplanes that are breaking the sound barrier, they can be explosions or they can be storms.”
Representatives for the University of Utah’s Seismograph stations said there was not an earthquake, ATK said they were not conducting any rocket tests, the Utah National Guard said they were not conducting any weapons or artillery training and Hill Air Force Base said they did not have any planes in the air after 6 p.m. A map of earthquakes over the last day shows no activity in Northern Utah, or anywhere in the state. The closest quake was a relatively small 2.6 magnitude near Bishop, Calif., more than 500 miles from Salt Lake City.
There is also a theory that the heavy inversion layer may have amplified a blast on the ground or in the air, making it seem closer and louder than reality. While that is possible, it is still unclear what caused the noise. “We don’t really know what this was. We don’t have the operational capability to even locate something like this, so we can’t say where it came from. We just don’t know."
One man reported - "I live just south of Big Piney Wyoming and I saw what appeared to be a large metorite at 7 PM. It was dead south at 45 deg elevation. No lateral motion and 10 deg of vertical (dropping). Appears to have been coming in dead on as the vert speed increased and decreased. It was 3 - 4 times as bright as the International Space Station. Could be the brother of what caused the booms later on." Another reported that "these strange noises occurred last year at this time all over the world - it's on u tube."
People in Wyoming, Indiana, Oklahoma and California also reported hearing a boom similar to what was heard in Utah.
UPDATE - The booms heard in Utah have been attributed to bombing flights by Hill Air Force Base, even though they said earlier that they did not have any planes in the air after 6 p.m. Hill Air Force Base said Wednesday that B-52 Stratofortresses from Barksdale AFB, Louisiana, were conducting bombing runs at the Utah Test and Training Range on Tuesday evening. They said the thunder of their bombs is what Utahns heard.
The rumbling, around 9 p.m., caused windows to rattle all over Top of Utah. More bombing runs were expected at the range Wednesday night, weather permitting. The University of Utah seismographic station said its seismographs didn’t detect anything, but its ultra-low frequency listening devices picked up the sounds Tuesday. A research seismologist said the listening posts normally detect noises too low for humans to hear. The technology is too new to quickly tell from what direction the sounds are coming.
South Carolina - 1/6/13 and for two weeks prior - Searching for the cause of booms reported by residents. For the past two weeks, people living in the Red Bank area of Lexington County have reported hearing booms late at night or early in the morning. The WIS newsroom has received a dozen or so reports of booms heard in the neighborhood.
Every so often the peace of Lexington County is shattered by what neighbors describe as an explosion. Sometimes it rattles the windows. The most recent was Sunday evening. The Lexington County Sheriff's Department had widespread reports of a loud boom from West Columbia to Red Bank. It's the hot topic on the Red Bank Happenings Facebook page.
The FAA and the military both say it was not a sonic boom. Others think it could've been Tannerite, explosive targets used on gun ranges. But given the widespread reports, probably not. A year ago a big boom in South Congaree was chalked up to a shallow earthquake. USC seismologists say they have no record of any activity in the area, making the series of sounds far more mysterious. So for now, the mystery of the Red Bank booms remains unsolved.

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Nevado del Ruiz volcano (Colombia) activity update: access for tourists reopened. The volcanic activity has remained stable for the moment but seismicity shows low energy earthquakes and long period events reflecting internal fluid movements and the volcano continues to emit a large gas and steam plume.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the South Indian Ocean -
Tropical Cyclone 08s (Narelle) was located approximately 475 nm north-northeast of Learmonth, Australia.

Narelle batters Bali with strong winds - Strong winds and high waves, the result of the Narelle tropical cyclone, have affected many areas across Bali as, causing the island's ferry ports in Gilimanuk and Padang Bai to stop operations yesterday. Strong winds have also caused severe damage to public facilities, as well as houses and trees in Gianyar, Denpasar, Badung, Tabanan and Bangli.
The head of Bali Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency predicted that the tropical cyclone would now head toward Western Australia. The Narelle tropical cyclone is the eighth tropical cyclone to form during this cyclone season in the southern Indian Ocean. In Indonesia, the cyclone is centered south of Bali’s closest neighbor, West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), with winds of up to 40 kilometers per hour. In Selemadeg village in Tabanan regency, a woman reportedly died after a large tree fell on her.
Trees have also damaged a temple, family homes and other buildings in Denpasar. “This is a normal situation for the period between January and February when tropical cyclones frequently occur in the Indian Ocean affecting weather conditions all over Indonesia." They warned people who live in the coastal areas of the southern part of Bali to remain vigilant. “The waves may reach up to 5 meters high, endangering fisherman and those who want to take water transportation."
Tourists who planned to take part in water sports, such as diving, surfing and snorkeling, must be very careful due to the heavy rains, strong winds and high waves. Due to the rough sea, Gilimanuk ferry port in Jembrana (connecting Java and Bali) and Padang Bai ferry port in Karangasem (connecting Bali and NTB) have had to be closed temporarily. Three traditional fishing and crossing ports in Klungkung regency were also closed, forcing hundreds of residents to wait for transport for hours. Local fishermen also stayed home over the last few days because of the high waves.
People living on the remote islands of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan in Klungkung regency have been isolated as there were no vessels heading to the islets to bring basic food and supplies to the local residents. The peak wet season in Bali will arrive in the middle of January and would intensify in February. “People must be on alert for the possible strong winds, torrential rains and rough seas during this season."

Tropical cyclone Narelle is forecast to strike Australia as an intense tropical cyclone at about 19:00 GMT on 13 January. The weather bureau has predicted that Tropical Cyclone Narelle will become a category four cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Malaysia - Residents told to stay alert for tropical storm tomorrow. Residents in Bintulu, Sibu and Mukah are warned of the high possibility of floods when tropical depression Sonamu makes landfall tomorrow.
Sonamu, developing from the Philippines and blowing across the South China Sea, was yesterday headed towards Mukah at a speed of 60kmh. Although the storm was reduced to a tropical depression, it would still be strong, with big waves and heavy downpour expected. “People in Bintulu, Sibu and Mukah who live in low-lying areas better be on alert and prepare to be evacuated when necessary because it is most likely that their areas will be flooded when the storm makes landfall."
The relevant state agencies had intensified preparations to face any eventuality resulting from the severe weather condition. Personnel from the various agencies had been put on standby. “We just hope that things will change because earlier on, the department had forecasted that the tropical storm Sonamu would strike the east coast states of the peninsula on Tuesday, but it suddenly changed its direction towards the central region of the state."
The state Meterorological Department cautioned that the rain might cause floods in low-lying areas, especially here where the King Tide is expected from 4pm onwards. According to the Sarawak government almanac, the King Tide is expected to reach 5.7m at 3.57pm today, 6m at 4.52pm on Friday, 6.2m at 5.39pm on Saturday, and reaching 6.3m at 6.25pm on Sunday and 8.19pm on Monday.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Indonesia - Mt. Arjuna-Welirang closed due to extreme weather. Mount Arjuna-Welirang twin volcano in East Java has been closed to climbers following rainstorms that have been striking the peaks over the past week. Extreme weather, toppled trees, landslides and sulfuric gas are among threats that could endanger climbers’ safety. “We will open it once the weather returns to normal.” Previously, a 22-year-old student went missing during an expedition on Dec. 25. He was found alive nine days later.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Australia - Second NSW heatwave not catastrophic. The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast another round of extreme heat across the state into the weekend, but without the same fire risks. Heatwave conditions will return to the eastern states while the northwest of the country is being lashed by tropical cyclone winds and rain.
Fires still burn on Bribie Island - Emergency crews have been backburning overnight on Bribie Island, north of Brisbane, to protect homes.

SPACE WEATHER -

'Doomsday Asteroid' Bigger Than Expected - A near-earth asteroid once considered a potential killer is even bigger than expected, but still not a threat to humanity – now or in the future.
When asteroid 99942 Apophis was discovered in June 2004, initial analyses of its trajectory suggested a small chance that it could collide with the Earth in the year 2029, causing an explosion equivalent to 1480 megatons of TNT–nearly 30 times larger than the biggest hydrogen bomb ever detonated. But later observations gave astronomers a better view of the object, and made it clear that the likelihood of a collision was so small as to be negligible.
But scientists have kept an eye on the object for research purposes, and Wednesday morning, officials at the European Space Agency announced that the Herschel Space Observatory has determined Apophis to be even bigger than expected: about 325 meters wide, or 20% larger than previous estimates. Apophis is currently on the part of its journey through the solar system that takes it near Earth; this close encounter gives astronomers a chance to collect additional data about the comet’s path. The ESA now believes that the asteroid will pass within 36,000 km of Earth’s surface in 2029. That’s inside the orbits of geostationary satellites, and close enough to be visible to the naked eye.
“Although Apophis initially caught public interest as a possible Earth impactor, which is now considered highly improbable for the foreseeable future, it is of considerable interest in its own right, and as an example of the class of Near Earth Objects."

Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate - In the galactic scheme of things, the Sun is a remarkably constant star. While some stars exhibit dramatic pulsations, wildly yo-yoing in size and brightness, and sometimes even exploding, the luminosity of our own sun varies a measly 0.1% over the course of the 11-year solar cycle.
There is, however, a dawning realization among researchers that even these apparently tiny variations can have a significant effect on terrestrial climate. A new report, "The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate," lays out some of the surprisingly complex ways that solar activity can make itself felt on our planet.
Understanding the sun-climate connection requires a breadth of expertise in fields such as plasma physics, solar activity, atmospheric chemistry and fluid dynamics, energetic particle physics, and even terrestrial history. No single researcher has the full range of knowledge required to solve the problem. To make progress, the NRC had to assemble dozens of experts from many fields at a single workshop.
While the variations in luminosity over the 11-year solar cycle amount to only a tenth of a percent of the sun's total output, such a small fraction is still important. "Even typical short term variations of 0.1% in incident irradiance exceed all other energy sources (such as natural radioactivity in Earth's core) combined." Of particular importance is the sun's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation, which peaks during the years around solar maximum. Within the relatively narrow band of EUV wavelengths, the sun’s output varies not by a minuscule 0.1%, but by whopping factors of 10 or more. This can strongly affect the chemistry and thermal structure of the upper atmosphere. Solar activity felt in the upper atmosphere can, through a complicated series of influences, push surface storm tracks off course.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) presented persuasive evidence that solar variability is leaving an imprint on climate, especially in the Pacific. According to the report, when researchers look at sea surface temperature data during sunspot peak years, the tropical Pacific shows a pronounced La Nina-like pattern, with a cooling of almost 1 degree C in the equatorial eastern Pacific. In addition, "there are signs of enhanced precipitation in the Pacific ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone ) and SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) as well as above-normal sea-level pressure in the mid-latitude North and South Pacific," correlated with peaks in the sunspot cycle.
In recent years, researchers have considered the possibility that the sun plays a role in global warming. After all, the sun is the main source of heat for our planet. The NRC report suggests, however, that the influence of solar variability is more regional than global. "When Earth's radiative balance is altered, as in the case of a change in solar cycle forcing, not all locations are affected equally. The equatorial central Pacific is generally cooler, the runoff from rivers in Peru is reduced, and drier conditions affect the western USA." Regional rainfall seems to be more affected than temperature.
Much has been made of the probable connection between the Maunder Minimum, a 70-year deficit of sunspots in the late 17th-early 18th century, and the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America were subjected to bitterly cold winters. The mechanism for that regional cooling could have been a drop in the sun’s EUV output; this is, however, speculative. The sun could be on the threshold of a mini-Maunder event right now. Ongoing Solar Cycle 24 is the weakest in more than 50 years.
Moreover, there is (controversial) evidence of a long-term weakening trend in the magnetic field strength of sunspots. Matt The National Solar Observatory predicts that by the time Solar Cycle 25 arrives, magnetic fields on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Independent lines of research involving helioseismology and surface polar fields tend to support their conclusion. “If the sun really is entering an unfamiliar phase of the solar cycle, then we must redouble our efforts to understand the sun-climate link." (a lot more details at link)

HEALTH THREATS -

Flu surge triggers Boston public health emergency - Signs of an increasingly severe flu season prompted city officials to declare a public health emergency in Boston, where infections have increased tenfold compared with last season. So far about 700 cases and four deaths, all seniors, have been reported in Boston, which is experiencing its worst flu season since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Among flu infections reported in Boston so far this season, 25% have been severe enough to require hospitalization. The dominant flu strain in the United States so far this season has been H3N2, which has been known to cause more severe infections. The flu season in Boston typically stretches through the end of March.

Cholera has struck more than 6% of Haitians - The death toll in Haiti's cholera epidemic is approaching 8,000, and more than 6% of Haitians have had the disease since it invaded the country in October 2010 after the major earthquake.

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Australia - The CFA has contained a blaze that was threatening homes in a town north of Melbourne - but warned sudden wind changes could re-ignite the fire.
Nine tankers and two fire-bombing aircraft battled the grassfire, which was first reported in Wallan, about 50km north of the capital. The CFA had earlier warned the fire could be a risk to lives and homes, as it headed north. Early reports suggested the blaze had impacted homes on Rowes Lane and more properties could be in its path. But at 3.30pm, the CFA downgraded its warning to a Watch and Act.
The fire, which has ripped through 5ha of bushland, has been contained, but could change. "Residents need to be wary of a change in weather conditions with sudden wind changes potentially reigniting the fire...Bulldozers are now on site helping with the clean-up within the containment line." It comes after arsonists lit fires in Melbourne's northwest, with several homes and an aged-care centre coming under threat from a deliberately lit scrub fire in Keilor East. The blaze at the Maribyrnong Valley Parklands burnt more than 10 hectares. The Metropolitan Fire Brigade sent 40 firefighters to the scene, who stopped the fire spreading into homes.
The early morning inferno follows a destructive fire that gutted eight homes west of Ballarat last night on the most destructive fire day since Black Saturday. Several hundred residents from the area, including some who lost property and livestock, faced local government and fire authorities at a fiery public meeting at Snake Valley Community Hall. "What happened to the text messages?" one resident said. "What are the people in the so called grey areas supposed to do? Burn?"
There were also containing concerns about the capabilities of the CFA incident website. "It crashed on me 4 times in 20 minutes," one man said. Ohters received mobile alerts far too late to leave had the wind turned. "We got the SMS two hours after the fire started, we could well have lost everything of the wind turned around." Between the tears and anger, there was also praise for tireless volunteer crew who worked through the night to save what they could.
The department of primary industries will be working with farmers in coming days to bury animals that died in the fires. The grassfires burned through 1150ha in the area around Chepstowe and Carngham. Earlier reports suggested up to 20 homes were destroyed, but police have revised that number to eight. The number of livestock lost was between 600 and 1000, but losses could increase. A CFA spokesman said two hay sheds had also been destroyed as well as 12 pieces of farming machinery. A ute used for harvesting operations in a paddock is believed to have caused the blaze as it drove through open land causing sparks. Investigations are continuing but it is believed to be accidental.
The fire swept through the Chepstowe area, 30km west of Ballarat, about 6pm, destroying the historic Carngham Station At least six people were taken to hospital suffering smoke inhalation. One father and son were lucky to escape with their lives after they were forced to abandon their car and run to take refuge in a dam. The fast-moving fire near Ballarat, one of 13 burning across Victoria last night, was fanned by southwesterly winds.
Meanwhile, the 6651-hectare Kentbruck blaze in southwest Victoria remains out of control but is not threatening any communities. The CFA said light rains overnight allowed firefighters to take a well-deserved break. They will resume backburning today in anticipation of wind changes and warmer temperatures on Friday. The Bureau of Meteorology confirmed Monday was Australia's hottest day ever, with a national average maximum temperature of 40.33 degrees. However the record was likely to last just 24 hours. There may be some respite for a few days before the weather is expected to heat up again on Friday. "Conditions do become very mild Wednesday and Thursday in the state, that's a real opportunity for us to get on the upper hand at the fire at Kentbruck."
In Tasmania, emergency workers continue a grim search through rubble for bodies after Friday's inferno, which destroyed at least 128 homes, mainly on the Tasman Peninsula. "It will be a period of time to come yet before we're in a position to say that no one has died as a result of these fires." As today's cool change brought relief to much of the state after yesterday's heat, residents at Mount Hotham in the state's alpine region were stunned to see snowflakes falling this morning. Despite this, at 1pm, a smallgrass fire was burning south of Seymour, about 100km north of Melbourne, with 12 tankers battling to put the blaze out. Residents in the town of Glenaroua have been advised by the CFA to monitor the conditions. (photos & additional links)

**Don't walk behind me; I may not lead.
Don't walk in front of me; I may not follow.
Just walk beside me and be my friend.**
Albert Camus

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.0 CARLSBERG RIDGE (Indian Ocean) (multiple 4.0+ quakes also)
5.1 NEPAL
6.0 MYANMAR
Continuing aftershocks in the Aegean Sea

Yesterday -
1/8/13 -
5.4 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.8 AEGEAN SEA
5.5 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

1/7/13 -
5.3 TAIWAN REGION

An earthquake centered beneath the Aegean Sea shook cities and islands in Turkey and Greece on Tuesday, causing panic in some areas but no injuries or damage. The quake, with a preliminary magnitude of 6.2 (5.7 USGS), occurred at 4:16 p.m. (1416 GMT) off the coast from Turkey’s northwestern Canakkale province.
The earthquake was felt in the Turkish cities of Istanbul and Izmir, and their environs. “It was one of the strongest earthquakes we have experienced,” the mayor of the Turkish island of Bozcaada off Canakkale said “There was some panic during the quake, but things have returned to normal and there is no damage.”
The Athens Geodynamic Institute in Greece put the magnitude at 5.8 and said the temblor occurred between the Greek islands of Lemnos and Lesvos, near the Turkish coast. The quake was mildly felt in Athens. The U.S. Geological Survey gave a preliminary magnitude of 5.7. Earthquakes are common in Turkey and Greece, both of which lie atop active fault lines.

Magnetic clues in earthquake prediction - Renewed efforts are being made to discover whether it might be possible to predict earthquakes by measuring magnetic pulses from electrical discharges in the earth. The idea is based on a theory that rock produces intense electrical currents when a quake is coming. The currents were huge. "They're on the order of 100,000 amperes for a magnitude 6 earthquake and a million amperes for a magnitude 7. It's almost like lightning, underground."
A team has spent millions of dollars putting out magnetometers along fault lines in California, Peru, Taiwan and Greece. The instruments can detect magnetic pulses from electrical discharges up to 16 kilometres away. California's San Andreas fault might have 10 pulses on a normal day, but before a large quake that background level of static electrical discharges should rise sharply. They had seen that pattern before half a dozen magnitude-5 and 6 quakes where they had been able to monitor the quake precursors.
Activity had risen to maybe 150 to 200 pulses a day, surging about two weeks before the quake, then dropping back to the background level until shortly before the fault slipped. A problem for the theory is that magnetic pulses can be caused by many things, such as lightning, solar flares, electrical interference from highway equipment, or even a nearby farmer's tractor engine. The theory had been around for some years, being considered exciting in the 1990s when a considerable amount of work was done to find out whether the phenomenon was present in most quakes. "The conclusion was that it really isn't."
A problem for the magnetic pulse theory was that it had been difficult, or impossible, to reproduce in the laboratory findings that were described in the literature. At the depths where quakes started there was a certain set of circumstances, such as pressure and the presence of saltwater fluids. When those circumstances were included in laboratory experiments, researchers did not get the phenomena indicated by the theory.
Many doubt that a way to predict quakes would be found in the near future. "If it weren't such a complex problem, we would likely have a solution by now. We see different things in different earthquakes. The crux is finding something that happens with every earthquake."

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

January 7 activity report

Russian volcano erupting with gas, ash - A Russian volcano which started erupting in November continues to spew ash and smoke into the air. The Plosky Tolbachik volcano, in the Kamchatka Peninsula, last erupted in 1976. The plume of vapor and gas with a high gas content has stretched for 12 miles northeast of the volcano. The eruption has been given the "orange" color alert.

New Zealand - Bay volcano eruption risk over. GNS Science volcanologists have lowered the Volcanic Alert Level for White Island from 2 to 1, to mark the end of the current period of eruption. The aviation code has also changed from orange to yellow. The alert level increased in November when a lava dome was observed by tour operators. The dome has now stopped growing, which GNS believes signals the end of an eruption period. Temperatures of the dome have not changed since December 10.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
Tropical depression 01w (Sonamu) was located approximately 305 nm west of Brunei. The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration.

In the South Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 08s (Narelle) was located approximately 595 nm north-northeast of Learmonth, Australia. The eighth tropical cyclone to form during the Southern Indian Ocean cyclone season, it is the first tropical cyclone of 2013. It will move along the northwestern Australia coast with the potential to make landfall.

A tropical cyclone is developing off Western Australia's north coast and could impact communities in the next few days. Residents in coastal areas from Whim Creek to Onslow in the Pilbara region have been warned to prepare their homes and family for severe storms.
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is developing 900km north of Karratha and 1070km north north-east of Exmouth, and is moving west south-west at 11km per hour. The Bureau of Meteorology said the cyclone was expected to intensify in the next few days. "Gales with gusts to 100km per hour may develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Onslow on Friday morning as the cyclone moves closer to the coast, then extends west to Exmouth later on Friday. The cyclone is rapidly intensifying and is likely to develop into a severe tropical cyclone as it moves towards the Northwest Cape."
The State Emergency Service advises residents to review their family cyclone plan and know the community cyclone alert system. Residents have also been reminded to organise an emergency kit with a portable battery operated radio, torch, spare batteries and first aid kit.

Questions in Samoa over cause of flooding during cyclone Evan - Hundreds of people in Vaimauga in Samoa whose homes, properties and businesses were wiped away by flooding during Cyclone Evan want answers. They want the Government to investigate the cause of the flood. Residents say Cyclone Evan cannot be blamed entirely for the UNPRECEDENTED flooding that has left them with millions worth of damage.
Many claim that the flooding was the result of the Electric Power Corporation’s Alaoa Dam being left opened. One resident says he has lived in the area all his life, and hasn’t seen anything like it. He says there should be an investigation into what caused the flood. Repeated attempts to get a comment from EPC were unsuccessful.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Australia - The hardy folk in Oodnadatta have been baking in the South Australian outback since early November. Daily maximums have hovered around the mid 30s to the low 40s since then and over the past seven days have topped 45. A positively balmy top of just 40 has been forecast for Wednesday before the town heats up again with 47 degree maximums expected this Saturday and Sunday. Now that's a heatwave.
The current HOT SPELL HAS BEEN SETTING RECORDS for the town that also boasts Australia's highest recorded daytime temperature, 50.7 degrees back on January 2, 1960. "We're just taking it a day at a time. Everyone in Oodnadatta owns an airconditioner and they just run 24-7. We stay indoors, get up early, get up before the real heat of the day. If you want to go out, you do it after dark." Strangely, the severe conditions rarely deter the tourists. Many are international visitors and don't really appreciate just how hot it can get in the outback and the dangers that can present.
The town has gone quiet in recent days. "Everyone is just staying indoors, there's pretty much no movement around the town at all. We're frying, it's extremely hot. But you've just got to grin and bear it." Children in the town head for the school swimming pool while a local dam is also popular. Other than that, not much is happening.
However, the locals do enjoy a bit of chuckle at the reports of hot conditions in the cities to the south and the east. When the mercury topped 42 degrees in Sydney on Tuesday, in Oodnadatta it was 47, for the third day in a row. "If it was 41 or 42 we'd be putting jumpers on."
Firies scrambling before next wave of heat - Cooler weather has given firefighters a small window to battle more than 140 blazes before hot conditions bring more bushfires. Australia recorded its HOTTEST DAY EVER on Monday, with a national average temperature of 40.33 degrees Centigrade eclipsing the previous high of 40.17 degrees, set in 1972. Tuesday saw temperatures in eastern states rocket again, causing dozens of major bushfires and subjected millions of people to a sticky, sweltering night. Wednesday brought a cool change for many regions, but temperatures are forecast to rise again later in the week, putting emergency services back on high alert. The bushfire crisis has so far led to no loss of life but there is more hardship ahead. "The fact is we're still partway through what is clearly going to be a pretty difficult summer of bushfires."
Photo gallery
Australia wildfires: 'Worst yet to come' - Video

The US sweltered under its HOTTEST YEAR ON RECORD in 2012, breaking the previous yearly average by 0.6C (1F). Last year the average US temperature was 13C (55.3F) amid widespread drought and a mild winter.
Scientists said the size of the increase over the previous record year, 1998, was UNPRECEDENTED. "These records do not occur like this in an unchanging climate. And they are costing many billions of dollars." In 2012, 11 weather-related disasters caused at least $1bn (£623m) in damage, including "superstorm" Sandy and a months-long drought that hit almost two-thirds of the country.
The drought - the worst in the US since the 1950s - contributed to higher temperatures. Without enough moisture in the soil to evaporate into rainfall, air becomes hotter and dryer. Last year was 1.7C (3.2F) warmer than the average for the entire 20th Century. July broke the record for hottest month. Nineteen states set yearly heat records in 2012. Alaska, however, was cooler than average.

HEALTH THREATS -

The brisk pace of flu activity in Canada and the United States has triggered concerns about possible oseltamivir (Tamiflu) shortages, with a Canadian announcement of the drug's release from the national stockpile and news that some parts of the United States may face low supplies of the liquid suspension for kids. Many Northern Hemisphere countries, from North America to temperate Asia, have seen rising flu activity in recent weeks, while cases ebbed or remained scarce in most of the rest of the world.

Public health deans condemn CIA vaccine ruse - Deans from 12 of the nation's schools of public health signed a letter sent to President Obama yesterday condemning the Central Intelligence Agency's (CIA's) use of a vaccine front in the search for Osama Bin Laden. The CIA has admitted that it hired a Pakistani doctor to administer a hepatitis B vaccine to people in bin Laden's compound in an effort to obtain DNA samples from the residents. The plan is among a host of factors that has fueled recent waves of violence against polio vaccination workers. Militants have also used the attacks as retaliation for US drone strikes and have claimed that the workers are spies and that the vaccines represent a secret plan to sterilize Muslims.

Monday, January 7, 2013

Australia - New South Wales faces WORST FIRE DANGER DAY IN HISTORY. The worst bushfire conditions in many years are expected to hit NSW on Tuesday, firefighters say.
AS NSW braces for the worst fire danger day in the state's history, people are being urged to leave campsites and evacuate homes in areas most at risk. A total fire ban will be in place across NSW on Tuesday as the state experiences severe, extreme and catastrophic fire conditions. "Having had RECORD RAIN... we are about to have RECORD DANGERS."
Temperatures in the state's far west are predicted to hit 45 degrees, while in Sydney the mercury is forecast to climb to 43 degrees - the third highest temperature on record. Those living in Shoalhaven, the Illawarra and the southern ranges were urged to be prepared, with a catastrophic fire danger warning in place. "It is the worst fire danger day that parts of the state have experienced in the history of NSW."
It would be "very rare" for there to be no loss of property but they were confident that loss of life could be avoided. The Fire Service Commissioner said people camping in the worst-affected areas should leave as emergency services closed national parks, camping grounds and other facilities there. "Pack up and be out on the road first thing tomorrow." Where appropriate, nursing homes and child care centres will also be evacuated.
It was "not recommended" that people living in catastrophic fire danger zones remained behind to protect their properties. "We are talking about FIRE DANGER RIGHT OFF THE CONVENTIONAL CHART. Some fires will start and spread so quickly that there will be little or no time to issue a warning."
An abundance of fuel and strong north-westerly winds of between 60 to 80km/h have heightened fire dangers, with about 90 fires burning across the state on Monday. Twenty were still not contained on Monday afternoon. For Sydney, The Bureau of Meteorology NSW regional director said hot weather would begin early on Tuesday and persist into the early hours of Wednesday. Temperatures are then set to increase again heading into the weekend.
A "watch and act" warning was issued on Monday afternoon with a fast moving 400 hectare grass fire burning out of control about 14km northeast of Wagga Wagga, threatening the village of Oura.

**So what if you feel special,
everything is sacred.
Get to work.
Let go of desires and power,
and get to work giving your gifts.**
Haidakhan Baba

No update on Tuesday this week.

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
None 5.0 or larger.

Yesterday -
1/6/13 -
5.3 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.0 EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS
5.1 OAXACA, MEXICO
5.0 JUJUY, ARGENTINA
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

January 5 - Extrusion of basaltic lava continued unabated at Plosky Tolbachik. In fact, KVERT reported a slight increase in volcanic tremor amplitude during the past day.
Deep earthquakes (12-15 km) continued beneath Mammoth Mountain volcano (California). Tilt meter and dilatometer data show the slight deformation occurring in conjunction with the ongoing earthquake swarm as well as a strain “step” produced by the volcanic system’s reaction to passing wave from the M7.5 Queen Charlotte Islands earthquake. The Long Valley volcanic system is well known for being sensitive/reactive to local and distant tectonic earthquakes, as are many other volcanic areas worldwide. (info on additional volcanoes at link)

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
Tropical storm 01w (Sonamu) was located approximately 250 nm south-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Australia - Severe fire conditions for northern Victoria. Parts of northern Victoria will face severe bushfire conditions on Tuesday with total fire bans likely to be declared.
Lightning strikes have already sparked blazes in north-eastern Victoria and there are also fears that fires across the Murray River in NSW may reach Victoria if they take hold. Northern parts of the state have already experienced several days in a row above 40C and that hot weather will continue on Tuesday. Lightning strikes could take a day to become a fire. There had been lightning strikes each afternoon over past three days in northern Victoria and aircraft were monitoring them.
Paramedics have again reminded people not leave children in cars. Ambulance Victoria said they were attending between four and seven children who had been left in cars each day. Significant work was done to fight a large bushfire at Kentbruck, near Portland in the state's southwest but they were no longer confident it would be brought under control on Monday. The fire has been burning since Friday and is slow moving but has the potential to impact properties in the Mumbannar, Winnap, Drik Drik and Greenwald areas. The fire is in farming area and there are no communities under direct threat.
Extreme weather deadly for the vulnerable - Australia's most vulnerable people are at increased risk of injury and death because community organisations are struggling to cope with day-to-day operations let alone plan for extreme weather events, the country's peak social services group has warned. The Australian Council of Social Service has found a poor level of preparation for extreme weather among community organisations, with the likelihood many would permanently collapse.

Wildfire-hit regions in Tasmania - crews continued to battle blazes in the state. No deaths have been reported in the fires, which broke out on Thursday on the south coast amid a heat wave. But more than 100 buildings have been destroyed and communities in some areas remain cut off.
Emergency payments would be provided to give people immediate help and damage would be assessed to enable communities to be rebuilt. Fires were still being fought, and they are calling for residents in Tasmania and also in New South Wales, where very high temperatures are expected, to stay alert. "This is the time to be vigilant, and I do want to pass that message to the people of New South Wales as the temperature gauge starts to rise." In Dunalley, the town worst affected by the fires, searches of fire-hit properties were continuing. "Police have searched 245 properties in Dunalley and to the north of the town, including 90 badly damaged or destroyed buildings. The preliminary screening search has discovered no deceased people at this stage." Searches would continue in the Murdunna and Sommers Bay areas, where more properties were known to have been destroyed.
A number of people remained unaccounted for, police said, urging local residents and tourists who had not yet registered with them to get in touch. Police said a convoy had delivered equipment and resources to the Tasman Peninsula - cut off by fire for several days - on Sunday. The region's main access road was also expected to open partially on Monday and boats were due to deliver goods.
Several fires were continuing to burn across the state, according to the Tasmanian Fire Service, including three rated as dangerous that were not under control. Police said none of the blazes appeared to be the result of arson. Late last week the Australian Bureau of Meteorology warned that the heatwave which has affected much of the nation would continue for several days. It said thick vegetation caused by two years of heavy rain could mean increased wildfire risk. Both New South Wales and Canberra are braced for temperatures and winds to peak on Tuesday.

Sunday, January 6, 2013

Quake measuring 7.5 strikes off Alaska - The quake occurred about 60 miles southwest of Port Alexander at a depth of about 6 miles at 0858 GMT. The U.S. Geological Survey downgraded the magnitude from an initial 7.7. The powerful earthquake sparked a tsunami warning for hundreds of miles of Alaskan and Canadian coastline, but the alert was canceled when no damaging waves were generated.

**When you pray; move your feet.**
African proverb

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
None 5.0 or larger.

Yesterday -
1/5/13 -
5.1 MAURITIUS - REUNION REGION
5.1 SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
7.5 SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
5.4 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.1 MID-INDIAN RIDGE

1/4/13 -
5.2 VANUATU
5.1 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.2 TONGA

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Georgia - Caucasus - The eruption of an underwater volcano damaged undersea Poti-Novorossiysk-Sochi fiber-optic cable. Presumably the 160-kilometer-long cable is broken in four places. As reported on Friday by the owner firm's management, on the damaged part of the cable, which was lifted on the side of the Poti station, clearly visible traces of fire, molten polyethylene sheath, the protective shield is damaged. "I think that this should be the eruption of an underwater volcano." According to the CEO, the damage on the main optical fiber cable Poti-Novorossiysk-Sochi was recorded on December 23.

Kilauea Volcano - The 30-year-long constant eruption of Hawaii's Kilauea volcano is ITS LONGEST SINCE THE 15TH CENTURY and it has added 500 acres of land to the island.

El Hierro volcano, Canary Islands, Spain had a very seismic active 3 days (December 31, January 1 and January 2), but the earthquake swarm suddenly stopped again on January 3. Definitely less energy than the former 2 swarms. Interesting to know is that the hypocenter depth range was at 14 to 21 km in another location of the island than the other activity areas so far. (other 1/3/13 volcano info at link)

PBS TV show preview video - Life on Fire - Volcano Doctors. "Learn how volcanologists try to predict eruptions and protect those who live beneath the Earth's fire. Whether the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, Colombia, Chile, Italy or Iceland, each of these countries is home to active volcanoes that are a threat to the populations settled at their feet. Every day, lava, ash, gas, bombs and avalanches are likely to slide down the gaping mouths of the rock giants. To avoid disasters, volcanologists are asked to anticipate and warn. Around the world, these volcano doctors use their tools and knowledge to try to protect those who live beneath the Earth's fire." Premieres Wednesday, January 9, 10:00 - 11:00 p.m. ET.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
Tropical storm 01w (Sonamu) was located approximately 295 nm southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

In the South Indian Ocean -
Tropical Cyclone 07s (Dumile) was located approximately 600 nm south-southeast of La Reunion. The final advisory has been issued on this system. The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration.

Tropical storm Sonamu is forecast to strike Malaysia at about 06:00 GMT on Tuesday, January 8. The National Security Council is on full alert as the tropical storm, blowing across the South China Sea from the Philippines, is forecast to hit the east coast states of Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang.
Malaysia - Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang told to brace for another wave of floods. Flood-weary people in Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang have been told to be prepared for another wave of floods as heavy rain is forecast for three days from Monday. The Meteorological Department forecasted heavy rain due to strong winds and the rough South China Sea. Heavy rain in the three states would cause flooding in low-lying areas and pose danger to those out at sea and along coastal areas.
"Therefore the public, especially fishermen are advised not to go out at sea and in the coastal areas." Residents in flood prone areas were also reminded to be mindful of heavy rain warning and advised to make early preparation in the face of possible flooding. The publicwere urged to always cooperate with the authorities if ordered to evacuate to avoid any untoward incidents. "The people are also advised to bring along important documents and basic personal needs while at flood relief centres."

New Potential Cyclone Looms In Mindanao, Philippines - After tropical storm “Auring” left the country on Friday, a new weather disturbance off Mindanao could develop into another tropical cyclone. Tropical storm Sonamu (local name "Auring") left one person dead and about a hundred families still in evacuation centers in western and southern Philippines.

Cyclone Dumile moving over open ocean - Cyclone Dumile is on a solo journey in a southeasterly direction over the open waters of the Southern Indian Ocean over the weekend. Dumile brought strong winds and heavy rainfall to the island of Réunion (population 800,000), located 435 miles (700 km) east of Madagascar, 100 miles (175 km) southwest of Mauritius. Dumile first formed as an area of disturbed weather on Dec. 30, 2012.(satellite image)

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Sri Lanka - Mini-cyclone damages 31 houses. Thirty one houses were damaged in the Polonnaruwa District as a result of a mini- cyclone accompanied by heavy rains. The continuous rain experienced posed a threat of floods and people were warned to take precautions. The cyclone was experienced at around 2.30 pm Friday and damaged the roofs of many houses.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Thousands stuck in airport as China freezes - Thousands of angry passengers were stranded after heavy fog delayed flights at a Chinese airport, as the country was shivered through its COLDEST WEATHER IN ALMOST THREE DECADES.
Ten thousand passengers were stuck in Changshui International Airport in the southern Chinese city of Kunming on Saturday morning after thick fog grounded more than 280 flights. Angry passengers stranded at the airport for more than a day struggled with airline staff, damaging computer equipment belonging to an airline, while police broke up scuffles. "The passengers were really furious, they kept going to the service desk to ask for information, but didn't get any answers." Flights at the airport resumed on Saturday afternoon after the fog lifted.
China is suffering its coldest winter for 28 years,. Temperatures recorded over the country since November have averaged minus 3.8 degrees Celsius (25 degrees Fahrenheit), while northeast China saw average temperatures of minus 15.3 degrees Celsius, ITS COLDEST WINTER FOR 43 YEARS. Plunging temperatures trapped around 1000 ships in sea ice off eastern China's Shandong province this week, while snowfall delayed more than 140 flights in Beijing last month. In the northeastern city of Harbin temperatures in the city fell below minus 24 degrees Celsius. Temperatures in northern China are expected to pick up next week, although parts of south China will continue to experience snow.
China shivers with lows of minus 40C - The cold spell has killed at least two people. The coldest weather for 30 years has left about 260,000 people in need of emergency aid in northern China's Inner Mongolia region. The cold spell killed about 180,000 head of livestock, affecting some 770,000 people across Inner Mongolia since late December. More than 3,700 people were evacuated.
The average in the three northeastern provinces bordering Siberia hit a 43-year low of minus 15 degrees. Temperatures in parts of Inner Mongolia fell to minus 40 degrees last week and snow lay up to 50 centimetres deep in the Greater Hinggan Mountains. In Mongolia, an independent nation that borders Inner Mongolia, temperatures as low as minus 50 degrees Celsius were recorded. The Mongolian government said that snow up to 1.3 metres deep had covered more than 80 per cent of the country, cutting roads and endangering livestock in many areas.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Tasmanian bushfires may have claimed lives as search for missing begins - There are no confirmed deaths as a result of the bushfires on the Tasman Peninsula, but police and defence services personnel will begin searching for bodies today. A number of people remained missing.
"We're hoping very much along with everyone else that there won't be (any deaths), but we need to go through the process to confirm that there hasn't been. If you have a house or a shack that burns to the ground that there's quite a thorough examination that needs to happen to confirm that there is definitely no deceased person in there.'' More than 1000 people have been evacuated from the peninsula to Hobart via boat, with the final ferryload of 180 people departing Nubeena for the capital early this morning. Hundreds more have sought refuge with relatives and in evacuation centres across the region, including at the Port Arthur historic site.
The threat posed to communities by the Forcett bushfire was downgraded to watch and act, but the blaze continues to burn out of control, and has already done massive damage throughout the peninsula. The town of Dunalley was the worst hit, with around 65 homes and the town's school destroyed, while dozens more buildings were razed at Connellys Marsh, Eaglehawk Neck, Murdunna, Copping and Primrose Sands.
There was a "distinct possibility'' lives had been lost. "Until we actually complete the process of checking everywhere, we won't be able to confirm that there's been no deaths or serious injuries. It was a very dangerous situation on Friday, very fast moving fire. Certainly we've got concerns about people who haven't made contact with loved ones or friends, but they are very much our priority.''
A bushfire near Bicheno had destroyed between 10 and 15 homes, and burned around 7000 hectares. The Bicheno fire continues to burn out of control and the town's main access route, Coles Bay Road, was closed again after briefly reopening on Sunday morning. The TFS was hopeful of getting the fire under control within the next 48 hours. Crews were having trouble accessing parts of the Tasman Peninsula as they battled to bring the Forcett fire under control. "There is still some problems getting fire vehicles into the Tasman Peninsula to work more on protecting properties and protecting assets."
Recreational and commercial vessels were used to bring in thousands of meals and other essential supplies, and to evacuate people. A crew of 65 Victorian firefighters will arrive in Tasmania later today. Property losses on the Tasman Peninsula have been significant, with 30 per cent of the buildings in the small community of Dunalley destroyed, including the school and police station. At Connellys Marsh, 40 per cent of the buildings are gone, along with three houses at Copping and several at Primrose Sands. Twenty houses have been lost around Murdunna and there are reports of more at Eaglehawk Neck.
As stunned residents examined the damage, the human stories emerged from a day of horror. Some were cut off by the speed with the fires spread and fought alone to save their homes. Others were saved by neighbours or by the heroic efforts of fire crews or waterbombing aircraft turning up in the nick of time. Or luck. There were tears and trauma, but overwhelmingly a sense of optimism and community and gratitude that things weren't worse.
Friday's high winds and 42-degree RECORD TEMPERATURES matched conditions on the day of the state's 1967 bushfire disaster and it was very fortunate none had died. ''The conditions of yesterday were comparable with that terrible day and on that day we lost 2000 homes and 62 lives, so I think it speaks volumes for the really hard work that was done yesterday and our more advanced operational and warning systems that we are able to use." Thousands of people remain displaced, sheltering in refuges and or with family and friends, many not knowing if their homes had survived the fires.
Until every property has been checked, people would not be allowed to return to their homes. Yesterday afternoon fire affected areas on the Tasman Peninsula were declared a Serious Incident Site by police for public safety, security of evacuated homes and to preserve evidence. Workers have been working to remove power lines and trees from the Arthur Highway in an effort to allow the road to be reopened. ''We're hopeful of, if not opening the highway fully, at some point in the near future at least having some form of escorted access for people particularly coming off the Tasman peninsula during the day."
An estimated 2000 people sheltered at the community refuge centre at Nubeena amd 600 people at Port Arthur. On Friday night and throughout yesterday tourist cruise boats, ferries and private vessels picked up people stranded at Nubeena and took them to Hobart. A boat arrived at Dodges Ferry yesterday morning carrying 3000 meals, fuel, bottled water and ambulance and other health workers.
Power outages had occurred across the Tasman Peninsula. This was affecting communication between people in the area and their loved ones elsewhere. ''There are certainly many many residences and areas that do not have power and people with mobile phones some of them have found that their batteries would have run out and they have no capacity to (charge their phones)." As uncontrolled bushfires were still burning, preserving life was still the authorities' main focus. The fire at Bicheno is thought to have been started by a lighting strike and the fire at Lake Repulse was thought to have been started by a camp fire. The cause of the Forcett fire is being investigated, but so far there is not evidence that it was deliberately lit. (photos & video)
Australia - Firefighters warn of hotter conditions - Firefighters are urging NSW residents to prepare their homes against the threat of bushfires as about 70 blazes continue to burn across the state. Firefighters were trying to get as many under control as possible before conditions turned nasty on Tuesday. "We're doing what we can to get the majority of these contained prior to the bad fire weather coming through on Tuesday. There is forecast more lightning tonight, so that many prove problematic because it may give us new fires over the next 24 hours. We may not have the ability to contain some prior to that real warm, dry, hot weather coming through."
There could also be fires that had not been spotted yet, while the fire situation was "reasonably quiet" across the state. Blazes were burning near Griffith, Wagga Wagga, Albury and the Snowy Mountains region. Extreme fire conditions were predicted in many parts of the state on Tuesday. Residents should not to wait until "the last minute" to prepare their properties against bushfire threats. Total fire bans were currently in place in the southern and northern Riverina, and lower and upper Central West Plains.

SPACE WEATHER -

INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES - The sun is peppered with spots: There are now more than a dozen numbered active regions scattered around the solar disk. As the sunspot count increases so does the chance of flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of M-class eruptions and a 5% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.
The most active sunspot so far is emerging over the sun's northeastern limb. On Jan. 5th at 09:34 UT, the unnumbered region unleashed an M1.7-class eruption that sent a wave of ionization rippling through the upper atmosphere over Europe. The flare was too brief, however, to produce a significant CME. More flares appear to be in the offing.

Get set for asteroids, comets flyby by - Astronomers are gearing up for thrills this year when Earth gets buzzed by two rogue asteroids and two comets, including a wanderer last seen by the forerunners of mankind. Next week, the guardians who scour the heavens for dangerous space rocks will be closely tracking an asteroid called 99942 Apophis.
Named after the god of evil and darkness in Egyptian mythology, Apophis measures around 270 metres across, a mass able to deliver more energy than 25,000 Hiroshima bombs if it ever smashed into Earth. Apophis sparked some heart-stopping moments when it was first detected in 2004. Early calculations suggested a 2.7-per cent probability of a collision in 2029, the highest ever seen for an asteroid, but the risk was swiftly downgraded after more observations.
Even so, for April 13, 2036, "there is still a tiny chance of an impact", says NASA's fabled Jet Propulsion Laboratory which puts the risk at about one in 250,000. One of the big unknowns is the Yarkovsky effect, a phenomenon discovered by a Russian engineer at the start of the 20th century. A slowly rotating body that orbits close to the Sun experiences heating on one side of its body that then cools at "night" as it turns over. This alternate heating and cooling can cause a tiny momentum, depending on the body's spin and amount of area that warms. The question is whether, over time, the Yarkovsky effect is accelerating Apophis, thus skewing estimates for future approaches.
Seeking clues, NASA's deep-space radars at Goldstone, in California's Mojave desert, and at Arecibo in Puerto Rico will be scanning Apophis, which on January 9 will pass by at some 14.5 million kilometres. "Using new measurements of the asteroid's distance and line-of-sight velocity, we hope to reduce the orbital uncertainties and extend the interval over which we can compute the motion into the future. It's possible that the new measurements improve the orbit to the point that we can completely rule out an impact."
On February 15, a 57m asteroid, 2012 DA14, will skim the planet at just 34,500km. In other words, it will spookily fly by inside the orbit of geostationary satellites. "It's going to be THE CLOSEST PREDICTED FLYBY OF AN ASTEROID. Because it is coming so close, even amateur astronomers will be able to watch it as it moves against background stars, and it may be visible through binoculars."
Comets - seen by the superstitious as harbingers of great events - could make 2013 a memorable year, astronomers hope. Lonely travellers of the cosmos, comets comprise giant clumps of primeval ice and dust, formed in the infancy of the Solar System, which loop around the Sun at intervals that can vary from years to aeons. As they get closer to our star, solar heat warms the comet's surface, causing it to spew out gases and shed a dusty trail which becomes reflected as a "tail" in the Sun's rays. First up is Comet 2011 L4 (PANSTARRS). PANSTARRS could be at its brightest from March 8 to 12.
The biggest excitement is being reserved for Comet ISON. Right now, it is unclear how bright ISON will be, but by some calculations it could become visible to the naked eye by late November and maybe linger brilliantly for months, becoming a once-a-century event. ISON is an extraordinary beast, for it last returned to Earth 10 million years ago, or more. "It's a 'new comet', which comes from a region of the Solar System that's called the Oort Cloud, an extensive system that extends from around a thousand times the distance of the Earth to the Sun to around 100,000-200,000 times this distance."

HEALTH THREATS -

2012 was worst year for whooping cough since 1955 - The United States just suffered its worst year for whooping cough in nearly six decades, according to preliminary figures released Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

US flu activity continues to rise sharply - Influenza activity continued its sharp rise through the last week of 2012.

FDA Proposes Extensive Food-Safety Rules - Federal regulators on Friday proposed new rules aimed at preventing food-related illnesses, requiring that fruit and vegetable farmers keep deadly bacteria out of their fields and subjecting processors to stricter safety monitoring.

RECALLS & ALERTS

Friday, January 4 , 2013

Australia braces for wicked weekend heatwave - There are fears a ferocious heat wave affecting 70 per cent of Australia will lead to more bushfires and heat-related illnesses.
Much of Australia will be on high bushfire alert this weekend as a prolonged heatwave pushes across the country, with RECORD TEMPERATURES already experienced in some centres. A number of bushfires are being fought in South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania. Authorities in those states are urging people to prepare themselves and their properties in case of fire. Firefighters in Tasmania fear some houses have been lost at the township of Dunnalley near Hobart. Health bodies are urging people to drink plenty of water and stay out of the heat.
While heatwaves are a normal part of the Australian summer, the current blast is UNUSUAL FOR THE LARGE AREA IT IS COVERING. "More than 70 per cent of the continent is currently experiencing heatwave conditions ..Severe heatwave conditions across the interior of Australia are set to continue for a while yet." Among the hottest parts of the country on Friday were Wudinna, on South Australia's Eyre Peninsula, which hit 48.2C. Adelaide reached 45C and Hobart reached a record 41.8C - one degree hotter than the record set in 1976.
Conditions at times on Friday reached the catastrophic level developed after the Black Saturday fires in Victoria, with up to 40 fires burning around the state. "We reached catastrophic fire danger ratings at times during this afternoon. I don't think we're quite out of the woods yet."
But it is the Dunnalley and Forcett fires, which the 100 fire crews fighting them say they can't contain, that are causing most concern ahead of a mild southerly change due in Hobart around midnight. "We are throwing everything that we are able to at incidents as they occur. We've got to get through today, then we get a bit of a lull and then we're back into it again next week." Victoria's Fire Services said Saturday would be a fire day of significance in northeastern Victoria. Temperatures across the state have tipped past 40C in many communities with extreme fire danger ratings.
A fire in a pine plantation at Mt Richmond in the state's southwest is a "major concern". The Country Fire Authority issued an emergency warning for the fire, which could affect the Lake Monbeong and Swan Lake camp grounds. The fire has no major settlement in its path. However, farming communities could be threatened, and people considering leaving should head for Portland.
The bureau of meteorology says the scorching heat bearing down across many states will continue "unabated" well into next week. Surf lifesavers are expecting to have to rescue hundreds of beachgoers this weekend as swimmers escape the heatwave in NSW.

**In the end one needs more courage to live than to kill himself.**
Albert Camus

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
5.0 TONGA

Yesterday -
1/3/13 -
5.6 KEPULAUAN OBI, INDONESIA

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

New submarine volcanic eruption off Turkey's coast suspected - A new submarine volcanic eruption might have recently started off Turkey's west coast in the Marmaris Sea between the mainland and the Greek Island of Simi near Rhodes.
Scientists have found evidence of 2 active vents at about 200 m water depth along a north-south trending fissure of 2.5-3 km length. A rise in sea temperature was detected which suggests that lava might be erupting from the vents. It might take 1-3, or 20 years for the volcano to surface, if at all.
The area is located at the eastern end of the volcanically active Hellenic Arc and volcanic activity here would not be a huge surprise. Possibly preceding the eruption, as magma was rising through the crust, the area was affected by a series of seismic swarms during the past months. A previous submarine eruption already occurred here in 2009. (map)

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
Tropical storm 01w (Sonamu) was located approximately 595 nm east-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

In the South Indian Ocean -
Category 1 Tropical Cyclone 07s (Dumile) was located approximately 525 nm north of La Reunion.

NASA's satellites captured visible and infrared data on Tropical Cyclone Dumile as it slammed into the islands of La Reunion and Mauritius in the Southern Indian Ocean. Both La Reunion and Mauritius posted advisories.
Warnings were up for La Reunion on Jan. 3. The territory is on red alert and a local advisory is in effect for high winds, heavy rain, high ocean swells and rough surf along the coasts of the island. The public was advised not to venture near rivers and other water courses because of rough seas. An improvement in weather was expected on Jan. 4.
On Jan. 3 at 0900 UTC (4 a.m. EST/U.S.) Tropical Cyclone Dumile was centered just 85 nautical miles (97.8 miles/157.4 km) northwest of La Reunion. Dumile's maximum sustained winds were near 65 knots (75 mph/120.4 kph) making it a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Tropical-storm-force winds extended about 95 nautical miles (109.3 miles/176 km) from the center, meaning that La Reunion island was getting battered by them.
Cyclone Dumile is moving southward at 13 knots (15 mph/24 kph) and is churning up very rough seas with wave heights up to 34 feet (10.3 meters). Dumile continued to move south and passed west of La Reunion, Jan. 3, before turning toward the southeast and weakening. Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center expect that Dumile will begin transitioning into an extra-tropical storm in two days.
Cyclone Dumile cuts power to thousands on French Reunion island - Thousands of homes on France's Reunion island remain without power after being hit by Indian Ocean Cyclone Dumile. Both of the island's airports closed, and shipping was at a standstill.
Meteorologists say the worst is now probably over but people have been urged to stay indoors with torrential rains continuing. Winds of up to 180 kilometres per hour (110 miles per hour) and torrential rain caused extensive damage to the electricity network after cyclone Dumile passed within 90 kilometres of the island's west coast at around 0900 GMT.

Philippines - Tropical storm "Auring" (Sonamu) made landfall in the southern tip of Palawan on Friday morning. PAGASA said public storm warning signal no. 2 remains hoisted over southern Palawan, while the rest of the province is under signal no. 1. The storm is the first weather disturbance to enter the country this year.
Auring has maintained its strength, still packing maximum winds of 65 kilometers per hour near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph. As of 5 a.m., it was located 220 kilometers southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan. Auring, which had triggered flooding in some parts of northern Mindanao, was moving west at 28 kph. With this speed and direction, Auring will be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility this afternoon.
"Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone." Fishing boats and other small sea crafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern and central Luzon and the western seaboards of southern Luzon due to the northeast monsoon. Estimated rainfall is 10 to 20 millimeters per hour (heavy - intense) within the storm's 300-km diameter.
A new cluster of clouds over the Pacific Ocean is expected to intensify into a low pressure area (LPA) and possibly a cyclone. The cluster of clouds may enter PAR as early as Saturday. The potential cyclone is forecast to hit typhoon-battered Mindanao again. PAGASA forecasters explained that the current orientation of the sun has created conditions favorable to the formation of cyclones in the waters off the region. (satellite photo)

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Australia - Country Fire Authority site buckles on total fire ban day as mercury climbs towards 44C in parts of Victoria, 41C in Melbourne.
Victoria's fire warning website failed its first major test of the summer when it was unable to meet demand and crashed. The Acting Premier and Emergency Services Minister said the website was receiving 700 hits a second on Friday - double what had been estimated - as anxious Victorians tried to seek information on a day of extreme bushfire risk.
Victorian residents claim they are still unable to load the state's fire warning website despite a top fire official saying its problems had been fixed. Worried Victorians have flocked to the Country Fire Authority (CFA) website in big numbers, slowing the site to a crawl this morning, leaving residents in fire danger zones furious on a total fire ban day. It comes as a large fire is burning out-of-control through bushland in Victoria’s southwest, and in the state's east.
An emergency warning was issued for the Kentbruck area, about 400km southwest of Melbourne at 3.08pm. After midday, the Fire Services Commissioner said the site's traffic capacity had been increased in the wake of the morning problems. "It is good to say that we have fixed it. We have given it the capability fix and we will certainly monitor it all day and increase capability as we go." However, Herald Sun readers say the CFA website is still causing them grief, with many still unable to load the page despite the first fire warning being issued.
The temperature cracked 40C by noon in one part of the state with many more hovering on 39C, as the mercury climbed towards 44C in the northwest. Dartmoor, in the state’s west, was the first to reach 40C, and by 4pm it had rocketed to 41.8C with Mildura jutting ahead at 43.4C and Nhill 42.7C. Melbourne reached 40.2C at 3.20pm with the temperatures earlier rising about 2C every hour. Melburnians are bracing for a blistering 41C, with strong winds expected across many parts of the state including northerly winds of 50km/h or stronger to hit the city.
After a warm night, the mercury soared passed 30C in several places across the state this morning, including Warrnambool which at 9am hit 34C and reached 33.2C at Avalon. Meanwhile, the extreme heat was expected to throw Melbourne's train network into chaos after a heat-buckled rail line caused a train to derail yesterday afternoon. Metro Trains admitted today's temperatures would test the network amid fears of mass disruptions.
In further embarrassment to the State Government, the CFA's Fire Ready app was this morning showing incorrect fire danger ratings on mobile phones despite 5000 new users signing up for it yesterday. A Badger Creek resident said the meltdown was a disgrace. "I live in a high fire risk area and I have no idea if a fire is on top of me. It's a serious joke. It's unbelievable that this can happen...Technical difficulties is an understatement. With all the money they've spent on this thing and all the time they've had to get it right, it's just crazy. It's a disgrace."
A CFA spokesman said people shouldn’t be relying on the website alone, but should check its Twitter and Facebook accounts and phone the Bushfire Information Line if they needed advice. Angry residents took to Facebook to voice concerns about the website access. "Not a good sign if your VITAL app and website are not functioning on the very days we need them most."
Meanwhile, Alpine National Park fuel loads - the build up of vegetation growth - are high and a court decision to ban cattle grazing will make the situation worse. "I believe there could be catastrophic damage if we don't get on top of the fuel land... there will be terrible consequences and to that end I say any tool to manage fuel loads is good."
Authorities warn residents in bushfire areas to have their survival plans ready, and all Victorians to check on the young and the elderly. An "extreme" fire danger rating has been issued for the Wimmera, South West and Central regions. The alert is "severe" elsewhere. Warnings have been issued for parts of Tasmania, with residents in some parts of the state advised to evacuate.
The strong northerly winds intensify the fire risk. "With these sorts of conditions, any fire is going to be uncontrollable, unpredictable and very fast-moving." In 2009, 374 deaths were attributed to the week-long Black Saturday heatwave.
One of Tasmania's most popular tourist areas has been cut off after police closed a major highway likely to hit by a bushfire. The Arthur Highway has been closed east of Hobart as one of the state's largest blazes remains uncontrolled in worsening conditions.
The road is the only way in and out of the Tasman Peninsula and its main attraction, Port Arthur. The fire, at Forcett, is expected to affect the highway later on Friday afternoon as temperatures soar over 40C. Residents in the small communities of Copping, Boomer Bay, Dunalley, Connellys Marsh, Primrose Sands and Carlton River are being told to leave and head to refuges set up nearby.
Tasmania's other major fire, near the Mt Field National Park northwest of Hobart, also remains out of control with people living in communities including Broad River, Jones River and Ellendale being told to relocate. The temperature in Hobart has hit 40.1C with wind gusts up to 50km/h forecast.
"This is an extremely bad day. Yesterday is probably as bad as we've had since the '06/07 fires when we had disastrous fires in many areas of the state. Today's got the potential certainly to be worse. People can get killed under these conditions and have been killed under these conditions." The fires have closed Mt Field National Park and many of the state's most popular walking tracks.
Hobart is experiencing ITS HOTTEST DAY ON RECORD - The island capital hit 41.3C at 1.53pm (AEDT), beating a previous high of 40.8C set in January 1976. That record had stood since 1899, when the mercury hit 40.1C. Records have been kept in Tasmania since 1883. The Bureau of Meteorology says it isn't sure what the new record will be because the temperature is unlikely to peak before 4pm. Hobart's overnight minimum was a January record - 23.4C.
Photos

Thursday, January 3, 2013

**Seeking what is true is not
seeking what is desirable.**
Albert Camus

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

Very quiet lately; we haven't had a 6.0 or higher quake since 12/21/12.

This morning -
5.6 KEPULAUAN OBI, INDONESIA

Yesterday -
1/2/13 -
5.0 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the South Indian Ocean -
Tropical Cyclone 07s (Dumile) was located approximately 200 nm north of La Reunion,north of La Reunion.

Cyclone Freda brings big swell, stingers to Gold and Sunshine Coasts in Australia. Lifesavers were bracing for another dangerous day on Wednesday, with cyclone-fuelled swell and stingers threatening holidaymakers lured to southeast Queensland beaches by hot weather. Beachgoers are being warned to swim between the flags, with dozens rescued.
Tropical cyclone Freda was forecast to strike New Caledonia as a tropical storm at about 06:00 GMT on Wednesday, January 2. Wind shear punched Freda down to tropical storm status on Jan. 1 and weakened it to a remnant low pressure area on Jan. 2. Strong thunderstorms were over New Caledonia early on Jan. 2.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Extreme rainfall in UK 'increasing' - The frequency of extreme rainfall in the UK may be increasing, according to analysis by the Met Office. Statistics show that days of particularly heavy rainfall have become more common since 1960. The analysis is still preliminary, but the apparent trend mirrors increases in extreme rain seen in other parts of the world. It comes as the Met Office prepares to reveal whether 2012 has been the wettest year on record in the UK.
Extreme rain is defined as the sort of downpour you would expect once in 100 days. There are big swings in rainfall from year to year, but the overall trend is upwards since 1960. Last year, for instance, extreme rain fell around once every 70 days. The phenomenon of more frequent downpours has already been noted elsewhere, particularly in China and India.
Scientists say that as the world has warmed by 0.7C, the atmosphere is able to hold 4% more moisture, which means more potential rain. The change in the UK trend is slight, but if the trend is confirmed it will clearly increase the risk of flooding. This year is already the WETTEST IN ENGLAND'S RECORDED HISTORY. And a series of downpours in late November brought one of the wettest weeks in the last 50 years, causing major disruption.
"We have always seen a great deal of variability in UK extreme rainfall because our weather patterns are constantly changing, but this analysis suggests we are seeing a shift in our rainfall behaviour. There's evidence to say we are getting slightly more rain in total, but more importantly it may be falling in more intense bursts - which can increase the risk of flooding. It's essential we look at how this may impact our rainfall patterns going forward over the next decade and beyond, so we can advise on the frequency of extreme weather in the future and the potential for more surface and river flooding. This will help inform decision-making about the need for future resilience both here in the UK and globally."
The Met Office no longer publishes a seasonal forecast and will not speculate on whether 2013 will produce frequent extreme rain. The immediate forecast however is for more stable weather.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

India - More than 100 people have died of exposure as northern India deals with historically cold temperatures. On Thursday at least 114 people have died from the cold in the state of Uttar Pradesh, at least 23 of them in the previous 24 hours. Many of the dead were poor people whose bodies were found on footpaths or in parks. The weather department said temperatures in the state were 4 to 10 degrees below normal. Temperatures in New Delhi, which borders Uttar Pradesh, hit a high on Wednesday of 9.8 degrees Celsius, the LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE CAPITAL SINCE 1969.

Snow in New Zealand as Australia faces heatwave - As Australians swelter in a heatwave, it's been snowing in New Zealand's South Island. For the second summer in a row, snow has fallen in Central Otago in January. But forecasters say the winter woollies will not be needed for long.
Kids were pictured making snowmen, the Gimmerburn range near Ranfurly looked like a winter postcard and travellers near the summit of Lindis Pass abandoned vehicles on Wednesday night. "There was quite a lot of snow but it's not landing on the town. It's on the hills surrounding." The snow did not damage the area vineyard, which was about two weeks behind a normal season due to cooler weather.
A hailstorm was also reported in Oamaru late on Thursday afternoon. The snow came after heavy rain and gales disrupted travellers on the West Coast of the South Island from Wednesday but the MetService says a ridge of high pressure will bring fine weather on Friday. "The weekend is likely to be warm just about everywhere." Unseasonably hot temperatures are predicted for Saturday.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Tasmania - A bushfire threatening the historic southern Tasmanian town of Richmond has been brought within containment lines, but crews are wary of an imminent heatwave throughout the state. Dozens of people were evacuated from the town after the fire breached containment lines and put properties under direct threat around 2pm (AEDT) on Thursday.
The fire was back within the containment lines by Thursday evening. "The last operational information received was that the fire was holding within containment lines, and crews are working on a number of flanks to bring the fire to a central area." There were no reports of property damage. One of the town's main access routes, Middle Tea Tree Road, was closed to all traffic for several kilometres.
Elsewhere, a large number of crews battled hard to bring a blaze at Forcett under control, while campers were moved on from Lake Repulse because of a nearby bushfire. Firefighters were working hard in the cooler evening conditions ahead of another predicted scorcher on Friday. "We are expecting worse fire behaviour tomorrow, with poorer weather indicators." Hobart is tipped to reach 39C on Friday, with strong northwesterly winds forecast. A total fire ban has been declared for the state.

Weather all over the shop in 2012 in Australia - It might seem bleeding obvious to those people about to endure a week of scorching weather, but new data shows the past decade was one of the hottest on record in Australia.
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate snapshot of 2012, released on Thursday, found days were hot and nights were cool last year, with daytime maximum averages half a degree higher than usual. Tasmania, the mainland's southern coast and the southwestern half of Western Australia experienced above-average temperatures. But it was cooler than average in eastern Australia, while the Northern Territory - where temperatures normally soar - experienced it's COLDEST WINTER ON RECORD. Balmy Darwin shivered through its CHILLIEST AUGUST NIGHT EVER. While it wasn't Thredbo, the mercury fell to a respectable 13.1C.
The first half of 2012 was cooler and wetter than average, with an ongoing La Nina event in the tropical Pacific dumping rain across most of the country, causing some flooding. Australia had its third wettest March on record, while in late February and early March southeast Australia experienced ONE OF ITS MOST EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS ON RECORD. For the Murray-Darling Basin, this event across a broad part of northern Victoria, southern NSW and eastern South Australia was the WETTEST SEVEN-DAY PERIOD ON RECORD SINCE AT LEAST 1900.
The cooler daytime temperatures, widespread cloud cover and rain associated with La Nina gave way during winter and spring to the drier El Nino weather system, which caused rainfall to drop 25 per cent below average. By the end of 2012, despite January to March being the seventh wettest on record, Australia had experienced rainfall just a touch above average. The bureau also found NUMEROUS WINTER AND SPRING HEAT RECORDS WERE BROKEN ACROSS THE COUNTRY from August onwards as maximum temperatures peaked above average.
Much of eastern Australia was hit by ONE OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SPRING HEATWAVES ON RECORD at the end of November, with Oodnadatta smashing South Australia's RECORD FOR THE WARMEST OVERNIGHT NOVEMBER TEMPERATURE with a minimum of 32.3C. No stranger to hot weather, Roxby Downs and Oodnadatta in SA's outback are about to sizzle again with six days in a row above 45C. Overall, the 10 years to 2012 was the fifth-warmest decade in Australia's history, while, globally, last year was the ninth hottest on record.

Wednesday, January 2 , 2013

**The only bad publicity is your obituary.**
Harvard Lampoon

LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
None 5.0 or larger.

Yesterday -
1/1/13 -
5.0 KEPULAUAN SULA, INDONESIA
5.6 KURIL ISLANDS

12/31/12 -
5.1 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN

VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams

Eruptive activity is much reduced at San Cristobal volcano (Nicaragua) but seismicity at the volcano, in the form of volcanic tremor and a few volcanic earthquakes, has not yet returned to background level.

Catastrophic eruption is brewing in Japan - One of the most seismically active countries in the world and home to more than 100 active volcanoes, experts say Japan is at risk of a major volcanic eruption that would cause chaos across the nation.
Thin wisps of smoke and ash continue to seep from the vast crater atop Sakurajima, as they have done more or less uninterrupted for nearly half-a-century. Once in a while, a minor eruption will release a small flow of lava and a towering column of debris that is taken by the wind. This is nothing compared to the eruption in January 1914 that shook what was then an island off the southern tip of Kyushu and the city of Kagoshima. The blast was the most powerful eruption in Japan in the 20th century, flows of lava bridged the narrow straits between the island and the mainland and the surrounding countryside and Kagoshima City were covered with a thick layer of ash.
Fortunately, indications that the volcano had emerged from a period of dormancy had been noted and most local residents had been evacuated, but a series of earthquakes in the hours and days leading up to the eruption caused at least 35 deaths. That event was nearly 100 years ago, but a professor of volcanology believes that an eruption on a similar scale is imminent. And a blast with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) reading of four would cause havoc across large areas of this densely populated nation.
"In recent years, we have not had a big eruption, but I have been researching the history of volcanoes in Japan and the evidence suggests that there is an event of VEI four or three every decade or so, but that has not happened for a long time. The last really big eruption was Sakurajima and that was in 1914. I'm very worried about a major event and the possibility that something serious will occur is increasing year by year."
The fear is that vast reserves of magma are building up beneath the craters of a number of volcanoes across the nation and a serious seismic event could trigger an eruption and the release of torrents of lava and pyroclastic material. "After a serious tremor in 1707, Mount Fuji erupted." That event was so serious that it changed the profile of the most famous mountain in Japan and burning cinders fell on towns around the base of the peak. Around 100 km to the east, the city of Edo - modern-day Tokyo - was blanketed in ash.
Ever since, the peak has been slumbering peacefully - although a magnitude 6.2 earthquake was recorded on the southern flanks of the mountain just four days after the Great East Japan Earthquake. A study by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention indicated that the pressure in the magma chamber beneath Mount Fuji could be as much as 1.6 megapascals higher than when it was in 1707. The implications of that study are difficult to quantify as volcanology is a difficult science.
"It has been 300 years since Mount Fuji last erupted, but it is only dormant, not extinct." Should a VEI five event take place, Tokyo would once again be smothered in ash, buildings would collapse under the weight, roads and railways would become impassable and infrastructure would be severely damaged by lava flows. It would take weeks for services to return to normal, and the cost would be huge.
"After last year's earthquake, there was a sudden increase in volcanic quakes, although they were all small in scale. This means that there was some kind of movement in the magma systems beneath the peaks. There are quite a lot of examples from around the world of this happening and it would have been natural to expect a volcanic eruption somewhere in Japan. But it didn't. And that is intriguing. In truth, we do not know the level of danger. We simply do not know enough about volcanoes right now to make precise predictions about what is happening and what will happen in the future."

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the South Indian Ocean -
Tropical Cyclone 07s (Dumile) was located approximately 525 nm north of La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone 05p (Freda) was located approximately 225 nm northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Although the system is dropping below warning threshold, several models indicate the possibility of re-development as it tracks back to the west. This is the final warning on this system. The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration.

Cyclone Freda weakens over New Caledonia, still significant. The Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre says the cyclone is expected to weaken further as it moves parallel along New Caledonia's west coast over the next few days. People can expect near gale force winds, heavy rain with this cyclone coming near to New Caledonia. The cyclone, the second of the current South Pacific season, is predicted to pass south of New Caledonia and into the Tasman Sea. Cyclone Freda hit the most southern parts of Solomon Islands earlier. The category four cyclone inflicted widespread flooding and landslides throughout the country, as well as damage to houses and crops.
Australia - Two boys, 11, saved by jet ski patrols at Maroochydore as Cyclone Freda whipped waves. A powerful swell generated by Cyclone Freda arrived at the Gold and Sunshine Coasts, sparking warnings from lifesavers and lifeguards. There were a number of rescues needed.

Tropical Cyclone Dumile Ramps Up - Dumile, still a moderate tropical storm on Tuesday, was beginning to veer southward a few hundred miles east of northern Madagascar, and nearly 600 miles north-northwest of Mauritius.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Australia - Victoria is set to experience some of its worst fire conditions since Black Saturday, with most of the state expecting temperatures above 40C on Friday, as well as fresh northerly winds. In Victoria's northwest, Mildura is tipped to have six days in a row above 40C.
Abundant growth in the dry grasslands and drying forests mean there will be a very high fire danger. Conditions will be extreme in the southwest and very high in other areas. "It is certainly one of the higher fire danger days I have seen since Black Saturday, no doubt. We have had a couple of quiet fire seasons and reasonably damp summer last year, a good winter, abundant growth, especially in the grasslands. There is a lot of fuel out there. So then you add that into the hot, dry weather we are experiencing at the moment; that brings together all the elements that bring about severe and extreme fire conditions."
It was likely there would be total fire bans but it was not expected that a code red day would be declared. Melbourne is tipped to reach 39C on Friday, with many suburbs likely to hit 40C. Mildura's six-day hot spell will begin on Thursday and peak with a 45C day on Tuesday. In the state's northeast Yarrawonga is expected to have five days above 40C.

SPACE WEATHER -

Prolonged Exposure to Galactic Radiation Speeds Up Alzheimer's Development - Radiation called high-mass, high-charged particles (HZE) are capable of penetrating a spacecraft and causing the early onset of Alzheimer's disease. A new study shows that extended exposure to cosmic radiation in space can negatively affect astronauts' brains.
NASA and other researchers have studied the effects of long-term space travel on astronauts for years, and found that galactic cosmic radiation caused cancer, musculoskeletal and cardiovascular diseases. However, this is the first study to show effects on the brain in regards to neurodegeneration.
HZE particles are propelled through space at very high speeds thanks to exploding stars, and come in a variety of forms. In this particular study, the researchers looked at iron particles because they, like HZE particles, have a mass and speed that allow them to enter solid objects. The researchers then used particle accelerators to reproduce radioactive particles located in space. From there, animal models with Alzheimer's disease were exposed to different doses of the radiation. They even used levels comparable to a mission to Mars.
According to the results, the brains of the mice exposed to the radiation had vascular alterations and an abnormal accumulation of beta amyloid, which is a sign of Alzheimer's disease. Also, the mice exposed to radiation were more likely to fail memory tests more often and earlier than mice who were not.
"Galactic cosmic radiation poses a significant threat to future astronauts. The possibility that radiation exposure in space may give rise to health problems such as cancer has long been recognized. However, this study shows for the first time that exposure to radiation levels equivalent to a mission to Mars could produce cognitive problems and speed up changes in the brain that are associated with Alzheimer's disease."

HEALTH THREATS -

A few extra pounds may cut risk of early death - People who are overweight may have a lower risk of early death than those at a normal weight. In a review of almost 100 past studies covering nearly three million people, researchers found that being overweight or slightly obese was linked to about a 6 percent lower risk of dying, compared to people considered "normal weight."
Being severely obese, however, was still tied to an almost 30 percent higher risk of death. The idea that being somewhat overweight could be linked to better health has been dubbed the obesity paradox, even though actual obesity is generally not associated with the apparent "benefit." The paradox is based on past findings that suggest overweight and obese people - even those with additional health problems - live longer than their thinner counterparts.
Some have argued that the pattern is a statistical one only because being thin, especially in old age, is often a sign or a result of serious illness - so the thinner people seem to have higher mortality. The study results certainly do not give people permission to pack on extra pounds as the difference in mortality between overweight and normal weight people is probably very small. "That's actually a very small number. It's probably only statistically significant because of the large number she had in her study."
Also, there are concerns that body mass index (BMI) - a measurement of weight in relation to height - is not an accurate measure of someone's health risks. For example, a soldier may be considered overweight but still be healthy, because he or she has more muscle mass. "It's not a good marker for body fat or health risk." There is also confusion around what BMI should be considered "normal."
Past studies looking at the link between BMI and death used varying ranges to describe normal weight, overweight and obesity. "There seems to be a lot of confusion about this whole area, and part of the confusion is that people are using a bunch of different categories." The researchers considered a BMI between 18.5 and 24.9 normal weight, between 25 and 29.9 overweight, and 30 or above obese. They further subdivide the obese category, though - with a BMI between 30 and 34.9 designated grade-1 obesity, and anything above 35 grades 2 or 3.
Being obese - in general - was linked to an 18 percent greater risk of death, compared to being normal weight. Being severely obese - grades 2 and 3 - was linked to a 29 percent greater risk of death. However, being merely overweight was linked to a 6 percent decreased risk of death compared to a normal weight person, while being slightly (grade 1) obese was linked to a 5 percent lower risk. The study cannot say why there seems to be a link between being overweight or slightly obese and a lower risk of death.
On the other hand, important markers of health, such as blood pressure and cholesterol, do respond to minor changes in weight. "So gaining that extra 10 or 20 pounds can put you into a dangerous category, and it's important to find out if you're one of those people."

RECALLS & ALERTS

- Procesadora de Productos Marinos Delifish S.A. has issued a recall of cold smoked salmon products potentially containing Listeria monocytogenes.