Sunday, April 27, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Once you replace negative thoughts with positive ones,
you'll start having positive results.**
Willie Nelson

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.1 NORTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA

Yesterday, 4/26/14 -
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS
6.4 TONGA
5.6 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

4/25/14 -
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.3 TONGA

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the Western Pacific Ocean -
- Tropical depression Six is located approximately 144 nm southeast of Andersen Air Force Base.
-----
New Zealand - Cyclone Ita devastated West Coast forests. The totara forests on New Zealand's west coast appear to have taken the biggest hit from Cyclone Ita, with several parts of forests completely flattened. The full scale of the destruction Ita wrought upon the West Coast's native bush and tree population may not be known for weeks.

Cyclone Nargis - Next week will mark the sixth anniversary of Cyclone Nargis, which swept through the Irrawaddy Delta in Burma and killed at least 140,000 people.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Mobile homes and tornadoes - It's well-known that one should avoid mobile homes during a tornado, as their relatively flimsy construction and tendency to roll when exposed to high winds leads to numerous deaths each tornado season. The majority of tornado deaths occur in mobile homes for this reason, but tornado experts have long wondered why mobile home parks seem to get disproportionately more tornado strikes than other residential areas.
New research suggests that "transitions zones" -- areas where dramatically different landscapes meet, like where a city fades into farmland, or a forest meets a plain -- are more prone to tornado touch downs. Since mobile home parks are often located at the edge of built-up areas, they may actually get hit more often.
The researchers studied where tornadoes touched down in Indiana between 1950 and 2012, and found that 61% of tornado touchdowns occurred within 1 kilometer (about 0.62 mile) of urban areas, and 43% fell within 1 kilometer of forest. The percentages suggest that certain locations may increase the likelihood of tornado touchdowns due to increased "surface roughness" -- an abrupt change in the height of land surface features, which can stretch or squash a column of air, increasing its rate of spin, which could contribute to the formation of tornadoes.
Forecasters and city planners may need to pay closer attention to these "transition zones" to better understand tornado risk. "There are still many unanswered questions about tornado climatology, but what we're finding is that there may be a relationship between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere that contributes to where tornadoes tend to touch down."
The study also found that tornado touchdowns in urban areas tend to occur at about 1 and 10 miles from the city center. These "rings" of increased tornado activity could be related to how cities are developed. "Cities impact the surrounding climate in terms of regional airflow and temperature. The size of cities, what they're made of and the heat they produce are factors that could affect the microclimate."

Weekend tornado and severe weather outbreak coming for the Plains - A multi-day severe weather event was expected Saturday, Sunday, and Monday across the Central U.S., as a strong low pressure system will spawn supercell thunderstorms capable of generating large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes. The most dangerous day appears to be Sunday, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued their "Moderate Risk" forecast of severe weather over portions of Arkansas , Oklahoma, Texas, and Louisiana.
The action began Saturday afternoon along a swath from Central Texas northwards into Oklahoma and Kansas, but at only a "Slight Risk" classification. This weekend's severe weather outbreak has the potential to be the most dangerous one of this relatively quiet 2014, which has yet to spawn a killer tornado. The relatively cool and dry weather across Tornado Alley so far this year has led to no EF-3 or stronger tornadoes as of April 24, which is a record-long wait since modern tornado records began in 1950.

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Friday, April 25, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Ninety-nine percent of who you are
is invisible and untouchable.**
R. Buckminster-Fuller

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
None 5.0 or larger.

Yesterday, 4/24/14 -
5.9 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.0 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
6.6 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

Canada - 6.6 quake strikes off northern Vancouver Island coast shortly after 8 p.m. PT. Wednesday evening. A strong earthquake off the west coast of Vancouver Island in British Columbia, shook coastal residents as far away as Metro Vancouver Wednesday evening. The main quake reportedly lasted about 10 seconds. In downtown Vancouver some residents in high rises said they felt their building sway. Glass rattled, buildings swayed, but no damage was reported. The 6.6 quake was followed by a 5.0 aftershock in the same area.

VOLCANOES -
Peru - Ash from Ubinas volcano caused conjunctivitis in residents of Arequipa region. Ubinas volcano continues to erupt - ash has now traveled as far as the peripheries of Arequipa and Puno. There was another eruption on Saturday morning. .Activity at the Ubinas Volcano has led authorities to evacuate 4,000 nearby residents along with nearly 30,000 llamas and alpacas.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

No current tropical storms.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Severe storms loom across central US this weekend - Forecasters are predicting a significant chance of strong tornadoes this weekend across a large part of the central U.S.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Over the winter, as polar vortices plunged the U.S. Midwest into weeks of unceasing cold, the icy covers of the Great Lakes started to make headlines. With almost 96 percent of Lake Superior's 32,000 miles encased in ice at the season's peak, tens of thousands of tourists flocked to the ice caves along the Wisconsin shoreline, suddenly accessible after four years of relatively warmer wintery conditions.
All of that ice takes a long time to melt. As of April 10, 48% of the five lakes' 90,000-plus square miles were still covered in ice, down from a high of 92.2 percent on March 6 ( that constituted THE HIGHEST LEVELS RECORDED SINCE 1979, when ice covered 94.7 percent of the lakes). Last year, only 38.4 percent of the lakes froze over, while in 2012 just 12.9 percent did – part of a four-year stretch of below-average iciness.
As the Great Lakes slowly lose their historically large ice covers over the next few months, the domino effects could include lingering cold water, delayed seasonal shifts, and huge jumps in water levels. Already, the impact of this icy blockade can be felt. On March 25, five days after the official beginning of spring, the Soo Locks separating Lake Superior from the lower Great Lakes opened for the season.
But after a long and harsh winter, Lake Superior's nearly 32,000 square miles were still nearly entirely covered in ice. It would be another eleven days before the first commercial vessel fought its way across Lake Superior – with the aid of several dedicated ice breakers – and down through the locks. The trip across Lake Superior to the Soo Locks, which usually takes 28 hours, took these first ships of the season nine days. A third ship had to return to Duluth after being damaged by the ice.
More than 200 million tons of cargo, mostly iron ore, coal, and grain, travel across the Great Lakes throughout the year. Even a little ice can make a big dent on this total. Only three shipments of coal were loaded up during March – 69 percent less, by volume, than last year. Shipments of iron ore from the northern reaches of Minnesota were so low that the U.S. Steel plant in Gary, Indiana, had to scale back production significantly in early April.
A sluggish start to the shipping season is just one of the cascading effects of the Midwest's cold and icy winter. Some are good, and will allow the region to recover from years of historically low water levels. Others, like this delayed shipping season, less so. Like the shipping troubles, some of the more unexpected things the lakes and their ecosystems could face in the next few months are the direct result of the lingering ice and cold:
Throughout the winter, huge numbers of ducks that feed by diving below the water for fish ended up starving to death. The die-off was "UNPRECEDENTED."
Next in line for concern are a huge number of the Lakes' fish species. Warming water temperature often biologically triggers migration to traditional spawning grounds, and experts expect that Northern Pike, lake sturgeon, steelhead, and rainbow trout could make moves far later this year. Later egg laying could mean younger and far weaker fish come next winter, leading to an even longer impact.
Other changes will come about long after the ice melts, as water levels are predicted to rebound to levels not seen in the last few years. Seasonal shifts in water levels, with winter lows and summer highs, are normal. "If things stayed in sort of a balance, we would see all the lakes water levels going up and then going down. Every year: up, down; up, down. When water levels change a lot over time, something is happening in one of those two parts of the season."
Over the last few years, the summer highs and winter lows have both been well below their long-term average. Though the usual March and April rise in water levels is occurring later than usual this year, already the lakes are seeing water levels that they haven't had for several years. This past March marked the first time since April of 1998 that Lake Superior had reached its long-term average.
And over the next few months, melting snow will feed the lakes and colder water could lower the rates of summer and fall evaporation. The amount of rain could either add to or subtract from this total. The Army Corps of Engineers and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration generally forecast water levels six months out, and predicted levels for this September range from 10 to 13 inches higher than lake levels were a year ago.
Here's what higher lake levels could mean:
Shippers may be hurting now, but higher lake levels will allow them to load more cargo per boat later this year, according to the Chicago Tribune. These higher water lines also mean that those who manage the Great Lakes' harbors won't have to invest huge sums of money in dredging out the bottom. Ships will carry more, at less of a cost, once the ice melts.
Fluctuations in water levels could also help maintain the diversity of plant and animal species along many coastal wetlands. Too many years of consistently low water allows certain species, often non-native plants, to take over.
Though water level changes even over a several year period are normal, the rebound from record-low water levels is going to be a relief from the hand-wringing of the last few years. But it will likely be a temporary one. A hot summer with little precipitation could mute the effects of the icy winter.
And, even if the lakes have more water this year, 2014 could be nothing more than a blip. "We don’t know, as this winter really exemplified, what’s going to happen. If we’re going to have three more severe winters, or flip back to three more winters like we’ve had the past few years."

HEALTH THREATS -
RECALLS & ALERTS

Measles at HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 1996 - Measles has infected 129 people in 13 states so far this year, the most in the first four months of any year since 1996, officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Thursday.

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Thursday, April 24, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Imagination is everything.
It is the preview of life's coming attractions.**
Albert Einstein

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.0 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
6.5 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

Yesterday, 4/23/14 -
5.0 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.1 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.5 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

4/22/14 -
5.4 TONGA
5.3 TONGA
5.5 LUZON, PHILIPPINES
5.1 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.2 OFF COAST OF TARAPACA, CHILE
5.1 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.3 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.5 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

8.2 Chile quake defied expectations - Smaller-than-expected tremor has scientists scrambling to redefine rules for areas of extreme seismic stress. Overnight on April 1, a series of quakes rocked the coast of northern Chile.
The 8.2 quake, which struck offshore near the village of Pisagua, was the largest in Chile since a magnitude 8.8 quake hit farther south in 2010. Although the Pisagua quake was not as big and not particularly damaging, it will still go down in the annals of seismology as an intensively studied earthquake that upends some assumptions about how and when big quakes happen.
In one sense, seismologists knew it was coming. Northern Chile, near the border with Peru, was the only stretch of the country’s coastline that had not broken in a large earthquake in the past century. In 2006, expecting it to go, a German–French–Chilean collaboration blanketed the region with seismometers, tiltmeters and other ground-measuring instruments, creating the Integrated Plate boundary Observatory Chile. It captured the Pisagua quake in action.
But the earthquake was not the ‘Big One’ that seismologists had expected. Only a monstrous earthquake, of around magnitude 9, would have relieved all the geological stress built up in the region. More quakes, on the order of magnitude 8, are still possible, but when they might strike is a mystery.
More broadly, the Pisagua event has seismologists rethinking some basic ideas about the risk of earthquakes in similar geological settings elsewhere - places with deep-diving crustal plates, such as Japan and Indonesia. Over time, earthquakes rupture particular portions of a long fault zone; the unbroken portions are ‘seismic gaps’ considered ripe for future quakes. Officials in these areas are often told to prepare for the worst-case scenario - the biggest possible earthquake in a given seismic gap.
But the Pisagua quake shows that this does not always happen. Instead, it underscores that seismic gaps can rupture in all sorts of ways, from lots of smaller quakes to just a few big ones. Chile is an ideal laboratory in which to study such questions because it lies on the margin of a subduction zone, where the Nazca tectonic plate dives - subducts - beneath the South American plate. Geological stress builds up and then is released in the occasional massive jolt.
Chile is home to the largest earthquake ever recorded — one of magnitude 9.5 in 1960 — and accounts for more than one-quarter of the planet’s total seismic-energy release. Pisagua had not seen a major earthquake since 1877, when a tremor of around magnitude 9 ripped through the area. Seismic activity began to pick up last August, when a swarm of small earthquakes struck the area. Another set followed over the new year, and a third cluster occurred in March. These three swarms seem to have prepared the subduction zone to rupture in the big 1 April quake.
Until recently, researchers had thought that the next large earthquake in northern Chile would break the entire interface between the Nazca and South American plate. The Pisagua quake and a magnitude 7.6 aftershock two days later, “are a clear counterexample of this simplistic classification." . Together they ruptured just a small portion of the entire region at risk.
Intriguingly, the part of the subduction zone that broke was not the part that had built up the most stress. For some reason, the Pisagua quake released stress in areas that were not the most wound up. “A lot of energy remains to be released in north Chile." When the next one comes, seismologists plan to be ready. IPOC has added instruments to capture aftershocks from the 1 April quake and whatever might happen next. Dozens of new seismometers and global-positioning stations have been deployed by teams from Chile, Germany and France.
Every little bit of data helps. Before the 1 April quake, one scientist thought that the northern Chile seismic gap would rupture either to the north or to the south of the Pisagua area, but not right through it. Now she has some fresh thinking to do. “Each of these efforts really does bring us a step forward." (map at link)

Papua New Guinea - Aftershocks in Bougainville after weekend quake raises landslip fears. In the Papua New Guinea island of Bougainville there are still tremors after Saturday night's large earthquake.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

No current tropical storms.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

U.S. Weekend tornado and severe weather outbreak coming for the Plains. A significant multi-day severe weather event is expected Saturday, Sunday, and Monday across the Central U.S. A strong low pressure system will trundle slowly across the region, spawning supercell thunderstorms capable of generating large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes.
The action will begin Saturday afternoon along a swath from Central Texas northwards into Oklahoma and Kansas, then gradually shift eastwards on Sunday and Monday. Recent runs of the GFS and European model have been very consistent in showing moderate to extreme instability in the warm air ahead of the storm's cold front Saturday through Monday, and this weekend's severe weather outbreak has the potential to be the most dangerous one of this relatively quiet 2014.
This year has yet to spawn a killer tornado, setting a NEW RECORD FOR LATEST DATE OF THE YEAR'S FIRST KILLER TORNADO. The previous record belonged to 2002, when the year's first killer tornado struck April 21 (an F-3 that killed a man in a mobile home in a rural area of Wayne County, Illinois.)
The relatively cool and dry weather across Tornado Alley so far this year has led to no EF-3 or stronger tornadoes as of April 23, and that's also a RECORD-LONG WAIT SINCE MODERN TORNADO RECORDS BEGAN in 1950. "Serious efforts" to document all tornadoes began in 1953, which was the first full year of tornado watches issued by the U.S. Weather Bureau, now the National Weather Service.

An El Niño Watch continues - March featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, but NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch for the summer and fall of 2014, giving a greater than 50% chance that an El Niño event will occur by the summer.
"There remains considerable uncertainty as to when El Niño will develop and how strong it may become. This uncertainty is amplified by the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring." None of the El Niño models (updated in mid-April 2014) predict La Niña conditions for peak hurricane season, August-September-October 2014, and 16 of 20 predict El Niño conditions.
Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer for three consecutive months for an El Niño episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were +0.2°C from average as of April 21. El Niño conditions tend to make quieter than average Atlantic hurricane seasons, due to an increase in upper-level winds that create strong wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic.
There is currently a Westerly Wind Burst over the equatorial Pacific Ocean that is helping push warm water eastwards towards South America. If this Westerly Wind Burst persists and expands eastwards through early May, the odds of an El Niño event will increase.
Arctic sea ice extent during March was 5th lowest in the 36-year satellite record. Temperatures in the Arctic were 2 - 6°C (4 -11°F) above average during the last half of the month, but a late-season surge in ice extent came as the Arctic Oscillation turned strongly positive the second week of March, with UNUSUALLY LOW SEA LEVEL PRESSURE in the eastern Arctic and the northern North Atlantic.
The associated pattern of surface winds helped to spread out the ice pack, keeping ice extent greater than it would have been. There was a modest increase in thick, multi-year ice over the winter, and the Arctic is in better shape to resist a record summer melt season this year than it was in 2013.

One billion-dollar weather-related disaster hit the Earth during March 2014: Southeastern Brazil's WORST DROUGHT IN 50 YEARS, which has cost at least $4.3 billion so far this year. This is the third most expensive natural disaster in Brazil's history, and the second consecutive year of disastrous drought in the country. Drought in Northeast Brazil during the first five months of 2013 caused an estimated $8 billion in damage - Brazil's second most expensive natural disaster in recorded history. Brazil's costliest natural disaster was the drought of 1978 ($2.3 billion in 1978 dollars, or $8.3 billion 2014 dollars.)

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Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Champions aren't made in the gyms.
Champions are made from something they have
deep inside them - a desire, a dream, a vision.**
Muhammad Ali

No update on Wednesday this week.

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
None 5.0 or larger.

Yesterday, 4/21/14 -
5.3 TONGA
5.3 TONGA
5.5 LUZON, PHILIPPINES
5.1 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.2 OFF COAST OF TARAPACA, CHILE
5.1 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.4 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.5 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

Indian seismologist warned Mexico about quake two months ago - An Indian seismologist claims to have predicted the 7.2-magnitude earthquake that shook Mexico on April 18 and says he warned his Mexican counterparts about its possible occurrence more than two months ago.
"During my routine scanning of satellite pictures in late January 2014, I found that a particular area on the Mexican coast in the vicinity of Acapulco was perhaps heading for an earthquake," said one of the world's leading seismologists. He said he had used two seismic precursors - the Outgoing Long Wave Radiation (OLR) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) - to make the prediction.
The energy leaving the Earth as infrared radiation at low energy to space, OLR, is known to rise before any medium to large magnitude earthquake, he said. "The SST has also been found to rise before the occurrence of an earthquake when the potential epicentre is in coastal region or undersea."
He made the prediction while studying the temporal variations of OLR and SST from the data made available by American satellites. He said that his analysis, which he carried out "just as a research exercise", showed that the area near Acapulco in Mexico exhibited "high OLR and SST continuously for the last three months. I wrote a short note and had mailed it to a famous Mexican seismologist in January 2014. He had responded and we had exchanged some mails over this communication."
He said he informed his Mexican counterpart that "both the OLR and SST parameters are clearly showing that the area is undergoing stress-building activity" and requested these to be examined more closely along with "additional parameters such as geological, geophysical, tectonic and other precursory parameters before arriving at any conclusion."
He communicated his prediction to Mexican seismologists on Jan 23. The 7.2-magnitude earthquake occurred on April 18, north of the resort city Acapulco, shaking buildings across a large swath of the country. He has been actively engaged in identifying various parameters that help predict major earthquakes, and is encouraged by his latest prediction. "It appears that the direction in which we are moving appears to be correct."

Spike in Quakes? - Does it seem as if there have been more earthquakes in recent weeks? Some scientists thought so. Some of the best minds in earthquake science have been counting quakes and analyzing seismic waves to see if the largest in a string of recent quakes — the magnitude-8.2 tremor in Chile on April 1 — might have triggered others far, far away.
A senior U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist who studies how quakes interact, got so excited that on April 12 he fired off an email to colleagues that started with this: "Guys, seems like a lot of big quakes have been popping off around the globe over the past week." Experts for years have known that the seismic waves from one quake can trigger a quake somewhere else — a process known as "dynamic triggering."
A study tied a magnitude 8.7 Indian Ocean quake in 2012 to a spike in quakes globally in the days after. That increase lasted about a week, and a few days after the spike, the rate for larger quakes fell to below average. "It's as if the Indian Ocean quake had shaken the tree, causing the apples ready to fall out to do so."
Research has found that OVER THE LAST DECADE THE NUMBER OF MAJOR QUAKES, those measuring 8.0 or bigger, IS NEARLY TRIPLE THE RATE FOR THE 1900s, but whether that's just a random cluster or a sign of dynamic triggering is unclear. In any case, the latter possibility is what got experts wondering if the Chilean quake had triggered others. A 7.2 on Mexico’s Pacific Coast on April 18 and a 7.5 off Papua New Guinea two days later were the latest to get attention.
Doing a quick review of quakes magnitude 6 or larger and which struck within the upper 43 miles (70 kilometers) of Earth’s crust, they found an uptick when comparing April 1-18 to the first three months of 2014. But the increase wasn’t significant, so the question remained: Did dynamic triggering play a role, or was that just random chance? "That’s a harder problem to answer."
Seismic wave data from the Chilean quake was studied to see if it might have triggered one in Nicaragua nine days later. "We did not see anything obvious."
Another researcher also counted quakes but looked instead at moderate and large quakes (4.5 magnitude or greater) in the 10 days before and after the April 1 quake that struck Iquique, Chile. He concluded: "I do not see a global increase in activity post-Iquique, at least for moderate and larger quakes — the ones that matter for hazards. [It] seemed like a lot of big quakes" after Iquique, "but it's largely an illusion."
That letdown is part of the reality of earthquake science, which is still in its infancy. "We have false hunches all the time. We don’t want to miss something." Making more sense of quakes, especially dynamic triggering, could be helped by a wider network of monitoring equipment. But that’s no easy task.
“We need seismometers close to the faults that make the world’s biggest earthquakes and most of those faults are underwater." The U.S. has "dense networks" in active quake areas. "But networks are expensive, and it's unlikely we're going to have the same dense coverage globally, at least not anytime soon."
Expanding that network would also mean going underwater. "We need seismometers close to the faults that make the world's biggest earthquakes, and most of those faults are underwater. This would take a substantial investment." Whether that added monitoring would have much pay back, especially in preventing deaths, is uncertain.
Less than three percent of quakes have any measurable effect in a given spot. Of that tiny percentage, any quakes that might have been triggered by others have not caused serious damage.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the South Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone Jack is located approximately 350 nm southwest of Cocos Island, Australia.
-----
Cyclone threatens to disrupt search for missing Malaysian plane - Tropical cyclone Jack was threatening to hamper the search for Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 on Monday, as a submarine drone neared the end of its search for the missing Malaysian jetliner in a remote stretch of the Indian Ocean. The search has entered the 45th day.

Hurricane predictions were off last year - Will this year be any better?

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Monday, April 21, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**All that a man achieves and all that he fails to achieve
is the direct result of his own thoughts.**
James Allen

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.0 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

Yesterday, 4/20/14 -
5.3 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.4 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.7 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.4 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.0 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
6.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS

Fourth quake strikes off Papua New Guinea - The magnitude 6.1 earthquake Sunday follows a powerful magnitude 7.5 quake in the area on Saturday night, which sparked a tsunami warning.

VOLCANOES -
Indonesia - Mt. Merapi spews smoke. Mount Merapi on the border of Central Java and Yogyakarta spewed smoke, causing light ash showers in a number of areas located within a 15-kilometer radius on the southeast, south, and southwest side of the volcano, on Sunday.
“Tremors were recorded for around 20 minutes at 4:21 a.m. local time on Sunday, and our observers began to hear thunder at 4:26 a.m." It was reported that ember was also seen at the top of the volcano. Seismologists asserted that, however, there was no lava flow during the volcanic activity. “The same thing happened after Mt.Merapi erupted in 2010. The smoke blowing this morning was also a single occurrence and was not followed by other seismic activities.”
The cause of the smoke blast could not yet be confirmed although a 5.6 Richter scale earthquake with an epicenter some 151 kilometers southwest of Gunung Kidul occurred on Friday. On Saturday, the BPPTKG also recorded Mt Merapi seismic activities in the form of tectonic quakes occurring four times during the period between 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. “We are not able to yet conclude whether the smoke blowing this morning is directly related to the quakes."
The volcano’s status remained 'active-normal'. “There is no an increase of [volcanic activity] status. We will continue to monitor and evaluate the conditions of the volcano routinely." The BBPTKG urged people living near the volcano and hikers to stay vigilant.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the South Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone Jack is located approximately 380 nm west-southwest of Cocos Islands, Australia.
-----
Philippines - LPA threatens east Visayas; potential cyclone approaches Philippines Area of Responsibility. State weather agency PAGASA is now tracking two weather disturbances, including a low-pressure area that may trigger flash floods and landslides.

New Zealand - Thousands still without power. Power remains out to a number of homes in Auckland and on the South Island's West Coast, days after being stung by Cyclone Ita's tail.

'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' -

Chile Quake, Jittery Bison: Is The Big One Coming? Some see signs that the world's tectonic plates are positioned in such a way to set off "the mother of all quakes."
A YouTube video blogger, pointing out that animals have much sharper senses than people, said last week that the bison in Yellowstone seemed to feel the presence of something violent and deadly. One bison after another trotted along the highway — a long string of the animals coming at the stream of car traffic entering Yellowstone National Park. Social networks were swirling with the theory that the bison sensed an outbreak of the Yellowstone supervolcano under which lies a vast magma chamber.
If an earthquake really happened there the results would be devastating for the entire planet. Just a few days before, a strong quake8.2 shook Chile. Are the world’s tectonic plates in a state of imbalance? Are we about to face the "mother of all quakes"?
Yellowstone geologists have denied that the bison run is linked to any anomalies in recorded seismic measurements. A spokeswoman for the park said that the animals' behavior was simply a reaction to spring weather — nothing threatening at all.
And yet there are continued reports that snakes, turtles, goats and rats know when volcanoes and earthquakes are about to erupt. There is no hard research data to confirm such knowledge. "Of course animals feel smaller preliminary tremors, just as people do," a seismologist says. "And animals can easily react nervously to such tremors."
Unfortunately preliminary tremors can only be distinguished from other tremors and recognized as such after an earthquake occurs, but there is no serious indication that animals are better prophets when it comes to earthquake prediction. In order not to depend on animal oracles, earthquake and volcano researchers in the geologically actives zones of the world have set up monitoring systems.
These do not make it possible to reliably predict activity, but they do enable experts to identify areas where tension is building and where possible eruptions may occur. Which is why the heavy quake in Chile two weeks earlier didn’t come as much of a surprise: Researchers didn’t need magic powers to see that coming.
"In the past six years, together with French and Chilean partners, we have set up 20 measuring stations in permanent operation in Chile." In field bunkers constructed 40 to 60 kilometers apart along the coast, measuring apparatus register the smallest quakes as well as shifts in the earth’s crust. "As the data had shown that in past years strong tensions had built up in the earth’s crust, we were banking mid-term on a larger quake." It was clear to researchers that a quake was coming up, and that all the measuring instruments needed to be ready. In this area, seismic activity has been on the rise for several months: In the second half of March alone, there were 23 magnitude 5.0 and higher earthquakes.
"The last major earthquake took place in 1877. Since then the plates have moved about 10 meters closer together. The tension that’s built up can only be freed by a major quake." The most recent earthquake in early April did release some pressure, but wasn’t enough to relieve the entire segment. A bigger quake will be needed because "the tension only got released in the middle part of the zone."
There was a break some 100 kilometers long, but two large segments to the north and south of Iquique are still intact. Also, hundreds of smaller quakes indicate that the space off the coast of Chile is not about to calm down — the remaining segments will probably require a quake well over 8.0 to break.
"In Chile, relatively little happened as a result of the last quake. That’s also due to the fact that the Chileans are very well informed about the dangers of earthquakes. Based on the previous series of quakes, the inhabitants in the vicinity of Iquique were fully aware of the dangers."
Inhabitants in other regions of the world also fear "The Big One." The west coasts of South, Central and North America, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Alaska among other regions are especially high-risk. In Europe, tectonic movements are a significant threat for Turkey, Italy and Greece. "Historical sources allow us to know relatively well when the last major quake took place in the different regions - which is why seismologists using this data can determine which regions are at risk." In other words: no need to rely on, nor worry too much about, nervous bison.

SPACE WEATHER -

Big meteorite strikes in Russia - again! Unlike the celestial object that exploded over the town of Chelyabinsk last year, this recent one injured no one on the ground, say Murmansk emergency workers.
Video has emerged of a huge meteorite streaking through the sky near the northern Russian city of Murmansk. The moment was captured by many residents as the white-blue light of the meteorite moved through the sky in the early hours of Saturday morning.
The latest sighting comes after a large meteorite exploded over the town of Chelyabinsk last year, injuring some people and blowing out windows. Emergency services said in the latest incident that there were no injuries among anyone in the city of over 300,000 people. Some 500 meteorites reach Earth each year, though many are small and are not spotted.

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Sunday, April 20, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Desire, ask, believe, receive.**
Stella Terrill Mann

HAPPY EASTER!

So far this month there have been 17 quakes in the 6's, 6 quakes in the 7's and one 8.0 -
For comparison, the entire month of January had just 6 quakes in the 6's.
February had 8 quakes in the 6's.
March had 15 quakes in the 6's.

In 2013,
February had the most large quakes, with 17 quakes in the 6's, and 5 quakes in the 7's.
April was next with 13 quakes in the 6's, and 3 quakes in the 7's.
May had the only 8+ quake of the year - an 8.3 in the Sea of Okhotsk, Russia. It was the DEEPEST EARTHQUAKE EVER RECORDED and at these pressures, quakes of that size were not expected to be able to occur (378 miles / 608.9 km deep).

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.4 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
6.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.1 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.7 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N. G.
5.2 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.

Yesterday, 4/19/14 -
5.1 SOLOMON ISLAND
5.5 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
5.1 ST. MARTIN REGION, LEEWARD ISL.
5.0 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.3 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.3 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.6 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
7.5 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
6.6 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 GUERRERO, MEXICO

4/18/14 -
5.0 KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA REGION
5.5 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION
5.6 NORTHERN ALASKA
5.6 NORTHERN ALASKA
7.2 GUERRERO, MEXICO
5.2 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
5.3 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, ARGENTINA
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
6.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION

A powerful 7.2 earthquake hit Mexico City, shaking buildings for at least 30 seconds and causing widespread panic. The quake was registered at a depth of 24km (15 miles). Its epicentre was in the western state of Guerrero, near the seaside resort of Acapulco.
There are no reports of casualties or significant damage, but frightened residents across the Mexican capital fled their homes as the tremor began. The earthquake was felt in several southern and western Mexican states at 09:27 local time (14:27 GMT). Windows were broken and trees fell in Chilpancingo, capital of Guerrero.
In Acapulco, where many tourists were enjoying the Easter holiday, there were scenes of panic. "People were turning over chairs in their desperation to get out, grabbing children, trampling people." Mexico lies on top of three continental plates and is regularly shaken by tremors.
In 1985, at least 10,000 people were killed in Mexico City by a magnitude-8.1 earthquake. Mexico City is vulnerable even to distant earthquakes because much of it sits atop the muddy sediments of drained lake beds.
The powerful earthquake damaged more than 100 homes in the southwestern state of Guerrero.
A parked car suffered damage when a adobe wall collapsed on it after the strong earthquake shook Chilpancingo, Mexico, Friday morning.

RARE earthquake, aftershocks rattle northwest Alaska - Several moderate earthquakes rattled Northwest Alaska on Friday morning, causing a stir in an area that historically has little seismic activity.

VOLCANOES -
Nicaragua - Experts downplay volcanic threat, warn of more quakes. Nicaraguan authorities say "there's no scientific evidence" of a pending eruption of Momotombo and Apoyeque volcanos despite recent earthquakes.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

* In the South Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone Jack is located approximately 380 nm west-southwest of Cocos Islands.
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Jack - A cluster of showers and storms over the South Indian Ocean last week organized into Tropical Cyclone Jack on Friday.

Australia - Mosquito mayhem: Dengue danger in Cairns and Far North Queensland after Cyclone Ita. Health officials are urging all Far North residents to increase their mosquito vigilance over the Easter period, as knock-on effects from cyclone Ita.

New Zealand - Homes flooded in cyclone Ida's tail could be red-zoned. Christchurch homes washed out in the second flood in just over a month could be added to the list of the city's red-zoned properties.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Sudden movement raises alarm in Wyoming slide area - A slow-moving landslide in the Wyoming resort town of Jackson sped up significantly Friday, splitting a house in two, causing a huge uplift in a road and a Walgreens parking lot, and threatening to destroy several other unoccupied homes and businesses.
The 100-foot-high hillside is unlikely to liquefy and collapse suddenly like the March 22 landslide in Oso, Washington, that killed 39 people, a geologist said at a town meeting Friday. But large blocks of earth could tumble down one piece at a time, presenting a drawn-out threat to four homes on the hill and to two apartment buildings and four businesses below.
"Is it weeks, is it longer? I really don't know. I think it's really unpredictable how long it might take. I don't expect it to end in a day." Geologists were still trying to fully understand the mechanics of the slide.
On Friday morning, a crack that ran beneath one house vacant for the past year shifted downward several feet and split the structure in two. Inside the home, floor planks have been coming apart and cabinets have been falling off the walls for the past two weeks. Three nearby homes also are in the high-risk zone. A sewer line ruptured and electric power had to be rerouted because the slide is moving a utility pole. The slide breached a retaining wall, and gravel was spilling into a parking lot.
Town officials first noticed significant hill movement April 4. They evacuated 42 homes and apartment units April 9, when the slide was moving at about an inch a day. By Friday, the rate had surged to a foot a day. Overnight, the shifting earth had bulged a road and a parking lot at the foot of the hill by as much as 10 feet. The groundswell pushed a small town water pump building 15 feet toward West Broadway, the town's main drag.
A large crack continued to widen near the four homes at highest risk partway up East Gros Ventre Butte, a small mountain on the west side of town. Meanwhile, a steady stream of rock and dirt tumbled off the hill gouged with fresh gullies. Efforts to slow the slide — such as pouring rock and dirt fill behind large, L-shaped concrete barriers arranged in a line at the base of the slide — were on hold to keep workers out of the danger zone. "It's really not safe to put people out there. You try to do what you can, but at some point you're really restricted from entering the area."
On a town webcam, pedestrians could be seen pausing in the rain now and then to gawk at the slide zone that's as big as three or four football fields. Cars and trucks on West Broadway also slowed occasionally, the cause of at least one fender-bender Friday and a police warning for lollygaggers. "Everybody's looking over there instead of looking where they're driving."
On Monday, town officials lifted the evacuation for residents of about 30 homes outside the high-risk zone but said they couldn't drive on the neighborhood street. They have had to walk to and from home by cutting across private property. On Friday, not even work crews could drive on Budge Drive, which was buckled several feet.
Town officials said they didn't know what was causing the slide, but they have noted the area has seen considerable road-grading over the past few decades. The latest work was last year's construction of the Walgreens drug store, which opened in January. (photo at link)

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Friday, April 18, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Many of life's failures are people who did not realize
how close they were to success when they gave up.**
Thomas A. Edison

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
6.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

Yesterday, 4/13/14 -
5.4 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS
5.2 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.2 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION
6.2 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.5 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.8 CELEBES SEA
5.0 STATE OF YAP, MICRONESIA

VOLCANOES -
Peru evacuates Ubinas volcano area after ash cloud. The authorities in Peru say they are evacuating people living near the Ubinas volcano, in the south of the country, because of increased activity. Officials said it would take three days to move 4,000 residents and their livestock to safer grounds.
Ubinas, Peru's most active volcano, recently began spewing ash clouds up to 4km (two miles) high. An eruption of cinder and toxic gases in 2006 killed livestock and forced a similar evacuation. Last week, the Peruvian government declared a state of emergency in the provinces closest to the volcano to help those most-affected. The residents and their 30,000 animals, including llamas and alpacas, will be moved to an area 20km (12 miles) away. The volcano is located about 100 kilometers (60 miles) east of Arequipa, Peru's second-most populous city. (photos at link)

TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.

No current tropical storms.

New Zealand - Storm continues to pose problems. Thousands are without power and roads are closed in many parts of the country as the remnants of tropical Cyclone Ita washes out the start of the easter holiday.
Residents in the South and North Islands are battling stormy conditions. Weather from ex-tropical cyclone Ita bore down across the country yesterday and overnight, bringing widespread power outages, flooding and slips in many areas. Those along the West Coast - one of the worst hit areas - have been working all morning to clear flooded areas and debris, with more bad weather expected tomorrow.
Gale force winds even forced a group of Cobden residents to seek shelter at an emergency refuge centre. The bridge was closed about midday yesterday, with winds gusting up to 140km/h. A Fire Service southern communications shift manager said teams were working to secure properties, before the next predicted deluge tomorrow. Most of our damage is from Greymouth up to Granity, north of Westport.
Further south, sodden Christchurch residents were also cleaning up. Sixty five millimetres of rain fell across the city overnight, and 180 millimetres in Akaroa. All river levels were running high this morning. In the North Island, those around the Bay of Plenty were facing rolling thunderstorms and heavy rain. A severe thunderstorm watch was in place for the Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Rotorua and Taupo.

Australia - Cyclone Ita Ravages Queensland Crops. Australia's northern Queensland coast was lashed by powerful Cyclone Ita, which was the strongest storm to strike the region in three years.
The cyclone made landfall as a Category-4 storm on the international Saffir-Simpson scale very near Cooktown. “I've never been so scared in my life,” Hope Vale's mayor said. The aboriginal community is located just west of where the storm roared ashore with sustained winds of more than 130 mph. “I thought the wind was going to pick up the ute (utility vehicle) and smash it into the house."
Officials estimate Ita inflicted more than $1 billion in damage, including the destruction of a banana plantation and large tracts of sugarcane crops. In Cooktown, which bore the brunt of the storm, four buildings were destroyed and another 50 were damaged by high winds. Power was knocked out over a wide area and may take weeks to restore in some of the most remote locations. Remnants of the storm later hit New Zealand with high winds and squalls that knocked out power and caused numerous traffic accidents.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

On Thursday, Michigan's governor declared state of emergency, disaster in 3 counties after severe weather, sewer damage. He declared the state of emergency for Marquette County following widespread, severe damage to water and sewer lines caused by this winter's extreme cold.
He also separately declared a state of disaster in Newago and Osceola counties located halfway between Grand Rapids and Traverse City. The counties have been hit with severe storms since last Saturday.Marquette County earlier this year requested an emergency declaration, saying that there already was more than $1.6 million in damage. The county's water and sewer infrastructure has been severely hurt by the weather.
"I admire the public works personnel who have been working around the clock thawing and repairing water and sewer mains. They are the heroes in this situation." State officials said the county's deep frost levels also have hurt fire hydrants and public roads, compromising public health and safety due to delayed fire suppression and emergency vehicle response and reduced capacity to treat wastewater.
"As temperatures warm and the ground thaws, we expect this situation to worsen before it gets better." Parts of Michigan are grappling with flooding. Floodwaters are receding along rivers in the central and western Lower Peninsula, a trend that should continue with mostly dry weather in the forecast for the next several days.
The most severe problem has been in Osceola County around Evart, where the National Weather Service reports that the Muskegon River remains at major flood stage. It had dropped from a RECORD 15.97 feet to 15.6 feet as of late Thursday morning. The Muskegon also had dropped from a high of 13.1 feet Tuesday to 11.97 feet Thursday at the Croton Dam about 35 miles north of Grand Rapids, which puts that area at moderate flood stage. Michigan rivers with minor flooding are the Chippewa below Mount Pleasant, the Pere Marquette at Scottville and the Saginaw River at Saginaw.

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