"One expert said to me — and I don’t know if this is overblown or not — that they’re still really concerned about the structural base of this whole operation, if the rocks get moved, this thing could really explode and they’re sitting, what, on — on a billion potential barrels of oil at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico. Is that a real concern or is that just out of the question, unrealistic?"
"Well, I’ve heard concerns about the structural integrity of the well. In particularly, with the “top kill” — the attempted “top kill,” lots of cement and drilling mud was pumped into the well. And it didn’t come shooting back out of the well and yet it didn’t stop things. So there is some conjecture that the — the casing of the well is — is faulty at some point."
BP’s ruptured well could flow for 25 to 30 years at a rate of 120,000 barrels a day. 120,000 barrels/day for * 365 days/year, for 25 years = 1.095 billion barrels
Senator confirms reports that wellbore is pierced; oil seeping from seabed in multiple places.
Oil Expert: BP must ‘keep the well flowing to minimize oil and gas going out into the formation on the side’.
Bush Energy Adviser: Relief well will fail, 46 billion gallons could flow into Gulf. "It hasn’t gotten out, but we now know a whole lot of better information from the scientists who are totally, totally disputing what BP’s story has been.
The best reports all have come from the Thomas Jefferson, which is America’s largest research vessel, which got directed on June 6… [to] get to where this enormous fire was coming that was miles away from the riser. What the Thomas Jefferson found in a week was the most specific info we know, that basically 1,100 meters below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico is a 400-(300 to 400) meter lake of very heavy oil that has spread so fast that it’s POTENTIALLY COVERING 40% OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...They are almost certain, because of the lack of being able to detect where the well bore was, because they couldn’t get within 3 miles of it, there was too much fire, there was no metal there, so - the casing is gone. So with no casing, its an open hole. And the only way we’ll ever put it out is detonating something that will fuse the rock right above the oil column into glass. And the only way that anyone’s ever done that is the four times the Soviets did that in the 70’s with a very small bore nuclear device. So I think that’s now our only option...The relief well won't work without casing - without casing, the mud just comes spewing back up. …We either are content with saying, we’ll just put 120,000 barrels in the Gulf for the next 25-30 years or we have to detonate it. … I think the government — we will find — is going to take all of their [BP's] cash.
Oil Expert: Only way to shut well off is to “let it complete which might take 30 years” or “a nuclear device”; Hurricane will “paint the Gulf Coast black”. "We have an open hole that’s spewing I would guess somewhere between 100,000 – 150,000 barrels a day of oil which is why you now have over A HUNDRED MILE OIL LAKE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT'S APPARENTLY 400-500 FEET DEEP. We have an open hole with no casing in it and the only way we’ll shut it off is either let it complete which might take 30 years which could maybe not only poison the Gulf of Mexico but maybe the Atlantic Ocean or to put a nuclear device down the hole…When the hurricanes arrive, the hurricane actually blows this oil on shore it will basically paint the Gulf Coast black and it will shut down the refineries, the power plants and it will be America’s worst catastrophe nightmare.
“For every one bird” found dead “99 were carried out to sea by currents” - BP knows… a boom can only deflect oil under the calmest of sea conditions, not barricade it — so they have stepped up their already aggressive effort to control what the public sees. …BP is… raking up carcasses of oiled seabirds. “The heads separate from the bodies,” one upset resident told me. “There’s no way those birds are going to be autopsied.”…
The body count of affected wildlife is crucial to prove the harm caused by the spill, and also serves as an invaluable tool to evaluate damages to public property – the dolphins, sea turtles, whales, sea birds, fish, and more, that are owned by the American public. Disappeared body counts means disappeared damages – and disappeared liability for BP. BP should not be collecting carcasses. The job should be given to NOAA, a federal agency, and volunteers, as was done during the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska. NOAA should also be conducting carcass drift studies. Only one percent of the dead sea birds made landfall in the Gulf of Alaska, for example. That means for every one bird that was found, another 99 were carried out to sea by currents. Further, NOAA should be conducting aerial surveys to look for carcasses in the offshore rips where the currents converge. That’s where the carcasses will pile up – a fact we learned during the Exxon Valdez spill.
Firms “suspending investments in Florida banks” because of oil spill.
Confucius
LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.9 KURIL ISLANDS
Yesterday -
6/17/10 -
5.1 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
6.0 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.0 OWEN FRACTURE ZONE REGION
INDONESIA - Nine villages and almost 2,000 homes destroyed in Papua quake. Seven churches, a power station and an elementary school are also razed. The region is very poor with limited communications. The exact number of victims is still unknown. The tremor, which measured 7.1 on the Richter scale, hit Biak Island, north of Papua Province. Despite its mineral riches (oil, gas, lumber and gold), Papua is one of Indonesia’s poorest provinces. It is underequipped in terms of basic infrastructures like roads, bridges and hospitals. All this has complicated the rescue effort. Road travel and communications are difficult. Yesterday’s huge tremor was also felt in Central Sulawesi where earlier a man was reported killed in a previous moderate quake that hit the area.
CALIFORNIA - Earthquake activity remains at elevated level amid more aftershocks, USGS says. The California-Mexico border continued to be rattled by what the U.S. Geological Survey called an elevated level of earthquake activity as hundreds of aftershocks to the 5.7 temblor on Monday were recorded. The quake on Monday was itself an aftershock of the 7.2 magnitude Easter Sunday quake that hit the Mexicali area. Experts have said the 7.2 temblor has caused thousands of aftershocks, increasing overall seismic activity in the Southern California-Baja California region. There were dozens of aftershocks overnight, but fewer were greater than 3.0 magnitude when compared to Tuesday or Wednesday. On Thursday morning, a 4.1-magnitude quake on the border was reported; it probably was an aftershock of the April quake.
VOLCANOES-
INDONESIA - Mud Eruption Reported in East Nusa Tenggara - An inter-regional road in a Kupang, the seat of East Nusa Tenggara province was nearly flooded by accumulation of a mud eruption which authorities said started about a month ago in a village in Sulamu Subdistrict. The mud almost covers the road connecting Sulamu Subdistrict and West Fatuleu Subdistrict and several other subdistricts in Amfoang. Despite the low intensity and size of the eruption, the eruption is disrupting inter-region transportation. Local residents have tried to keep the main road accessible by funneling the mud from the road to the nearby forest by making small trenches.
RUSSIA's northern-most active volcano was churning out ash to a height of 4,000 meters (13,000 feet) in the country's Far East on Thursday. The Shiveluch volcano on the Kamchatka Peninsula last erupted in December 2006 and has been active ever since with the volcano spewing out gas and ash up to 8,000 meters (26,000 feet). The local seismological service reported registering dozens of tremors within the area in the past 24 hours. The volcanic activity over the past two-three years has significantly altered the contour of the volcano with the crater increasing in size by 50% and the slopes becoming far steeper than previously. Although the current eruption poses no immediate threat to nearby settlements, the ensuing ash fallouts could be hazardous to health and the environment. The clouds of volcanic ash could also pose threat to air traffic.
PHILIPPINES - The Provincial Government of Batangas said Thursday it was prepared to declare a state of calamity as Taal Volcano continued to show signs of restiveness. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology recorded at least 15 volcanic earthquakes in the past 24-hour observation period. It said the Alas-as (a new eruption site), Pira-piraso and Calauit leveling lines remained inflated. The volcano island is still off-limits to the public since Phivolcs raised the alert level from 1 to 2. Alert level 2 means the volcano is undergoing magmatic intrusion, which could eventually lead to an eruption.
TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression 02E was 99 nmi SE of Acapulco, Mexico.
Tropical storm BLAS was 244 nmi SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Tropical Storm Blas formed on Thursday in the Pacific off southwestern Mexico, but was expected to move away from the coast.
