PUZZLING COLLAPSE OF THE EARTH'S UPPER ATMOSPHERE - Researchers are puzzling over a sharper-than-expected collapse of Earth's upper atmosphere during the deep solar minimum of 2008-09. "Something is going on that we do not understand." NASA-funded researchers are monitoring the big event in our planet's atmosphere. High above Earth's surface where the atmosphere meets space, a rarefied layer of gas called "the thermosphere" recently collapsed and now is rebounding again.
The collapse happened during the deep solar minimum of 2008-2009 - a fact which comes as little surprise to researchers. The thermosphere always cools and contracts when solar activity is low. In this case, however, the magnitude of the collapse was two to three times greater than low solar activity could explain. "This is the biggest contraction of the thermosphere in at least 43 years. It's a Space Age RECORD."
When solar activity is high, solar extreme ultraviolet warms the thermosphere, causing it to puff up like a marshmallow held over a camp fire. (This heating can raise temperatures as high as 1400 K.) When solar activity is low, the opposite happens. Lately, solar activity has been very low. In 2008 and 2009, the sun plunged into a CENTURY-CLASS SOLAR MINIMUM. Sunspots were scarce, solar flares almost non-existent, and solar EUV radiation was at a low ebb. The thermospheric collapse of 2008-2009 was not only bigger than any previous collapse, but also BIGGER THAN THE SUN ALONE COULD EXPLAIN.
One possible explanation is carbon dioxide (CO2). When carbon dioxide gets into the thermosphere, it acts as a coolant, shedding heat via infrared radiation. It is widely-known that CO2 levels have been increasing in Earth's atmosphere. Extra CO2 in the thermosphere could have magnified the cooling action of solar minimum. "But the numbers don't quite add up. Even when we take CO2 into account using our best understanding of how it operates as a coolant, we cannot fully explain the thermosphere's collapse."
Low solar EUV accounts for about 30% of the collapse. Extra CO2 accounts for at least another 10%. That leaves as much as 60% unaccounted for. Trends in global climate could alter the composition of the thermosphere, changing its thermal properties and the way it responds to external stimuli. The overall sensitivity of the thermosphere to solar radiation could actually be increasing. "The density anomalies, may signify that an as-yet-unidentified climatological tipping point involving energy balance and chemistry feedbacks has been reached." Or not. Important clues may be found in the way the thermosphere rebounds. Solar minimum is now coming to an end, EUV radiation is on the rise, and the thermosphere is puffing up again. Exactly how the recovery proceeds could unravel the contributions of solar vs. terrestrial sources.
Harvey Mackay
LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.2 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
Yesterday -
7/18/10 -
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.6 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
6.0 KHABAROVSKIY KRAY, RUSSIA
6.2 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
7.2 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G
7.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G
5.1 TAIWAN REGION
6.7 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
7/17/10 -
5.2 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE 2010-07-18 02:23
5.6 TONGA
5.0 TAIWAN
5.5 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.0 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
7/16/10 -
5.0 SUMBAWA REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 SUMBAWA REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
5.1 AEGEAN SEA
5.1 DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE
5.0 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
TROPICAL STORMS -
Tropical depression 04W was 64 nmi WNW of Subic Bay, Philippines.
Conson Cyclone passes over China with limited casualties: 2 dead on the island of Hainan. The first typhoon of the season, Conson lost a lot of its destructive power after making landfall on the Philippines and was "demoted" to a tropical storm, but it regained strength and was again classified as a typhoon, with winds of 120 mph. The Zhejiang and Hunan regions were already flagellated by severe floods along the Yangtze River caused by days of heavy rains. The floods have affected an estimated 35.5 million people with 1.2 million displaced, the official toll is of 135 dead and 41 missing. If the rains continue, the country could suffer the worst flooding in 12 years. The heavy rains will also do serious damage to crops. Tropical cyclones are not infrequent at this time of year, affecting the Philippines, China, Japan and Taiwan, gathering strength from the warm waters of the South China Sea to unload their violence once they make landfall.
VIETNAM - Huge damage in Northern provinces. At least one child is reported to have been killed and three people are still missing after tropical storm Conson hit the north of Vietnam on July 17.
PHILIPPINES - A low pressure area spotted near the east of Luzon had a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. "The LPA is now very near the east of Central Luzon. A low level circulation of clouds prevails, preventing the formation of a storm. But once the convective clouds, which form heavy vapor, will organize then there will be a chance that a tropical depression will be formed." Once the LPA intensifies into a tropical storm, it will be named “Caloy.”
Tropical depression Four is forecast to strike China as a tropical storm at about 18:00 GMT on 21 July.
HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -
MINNESOTA - Waves of thunderstorms rolled through the Metro Saturday night. High winds and hail caused major damage to parts of Minnesota. At least eight tornadoes were reported by trained spotters, but the NWS has not confirmed the number or strength of the tornadoes yet. There were reports of hail as big as softballs in some areas. Other areas experienced winds up to 60 miles per hour and still have plenty of scattered debris, tree limbs and branches. There are reports of downed power lines as well.
HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
ARGENTINA, PARAGUAY, URUGUAY, BOLIVIA, CHILE, BRAZIL, PERU - A spell of extreme cold weather has brought ice and snow to much of Argentina, killing at least nine. Most of the victims were homeless people in the capital Buenos Aires who died of hypothermia. The cold front moving up from Antarctica has caused temperatures to plunge across the southern cone region of South America. Deaths have also been reported in Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia. "The wave of cold air from the polar region continues to affect all of Argentina's territory with intense frosts. They recorded minimum temperatures of minus 14C in Patagonia and central Argentina and between 0C and 3C in the north. Argentina has stepped up electricity imports from Brazil and put restrictions on the use of natural gas by industry to ensure the increased energy demand for domestic heating can be met.
The cold snap also hit Bolivia, where local media reported at least two deaths in the tropical region of Santa Cruz.
Bolivia's education ministry ordered schools to close until 21 July because of the cold. Low temperatures have also affected Chile, southern Brazil, and eastern Peru. The UNUSUALLY COLD WINTER weather in South America follows ONE OF THE COLDEST WINTERS FOR YEARS in many parts of the northern hemisphere.
GULF OIL CRISIS -
Seep detected near site of now-capped Gulf of Mexico oil well - BP was ordered to continue monitoring the capped Gulf of Mexico oil well after a seep and other anomalies were discovered a distance from the well. "Given the current observations from the test, including the detected seep a distance from the well and undetermined anomalies at the well head, monitoring of the seabed is of paramount importance during the test period. When seeps are detected, you are directed to marshal resources, quickly investigate, and report findings to the government in no more than four hours."
The containment cap was successfully fitted to the blown well head on Thursday to stop an oil leak that has raged since the April 20 Deepwater Horizon rig explosion. Capping the well only serves as a temporary solution until BP can complete drilling two relief wells intended to permanently seal off the well near the bottom of the original well bore. The relief wells are expected to start sealing the well as early as late July or as late as mid-August.
BP's containment of the leaking well has been fraught with problems since May, when a 100-tonne dome was placed over the blown well and later removed when it became clogged with a slushy mixture of gas and ice. Another smaller device, a two-tonne "top hat" used a few days later, failed for similar reasons. Finally, on May 17, a siphoning tube was installed in the well's riser pipe but only managed to siphon a fraction of the thousands of barrels of oil a day spewing into the Gulf. On May 26, BP tried to pump heavy drilling mud and debris into the riser pipe but this "top kill" solution proved to be ineffective. By June, BP managed to install a containment cap on the riser pipe that did not completely stanch the flow of oil into the Gulf but allowed the company to capture about 18,000 barrels of oil a day from the estimated flow of 35,000 to 60,000 barrels a day.
