Wednesday, November 3, 2010

ICELAND - Will an Eruption Start Today? The flood in Gígja is steadily increasing. The level of the water was 3.8 meters Tuesday morning, but it was 1.8 meters around midday Monday. The bridge over Gígja is around 340 meters wide, but the river is now about 200 meters wide at the bridge. The water is flowing at about 630 cubic meters per second compared to 130 cubic meters per second on Sunday. This indicates that the river is rising faster than in the last big flood in 2004. Other rivers are not showing signs of flooding.
At Grímsvötn, the very active volcano that last erupted after the flood in 2004, earthquake activity is being closely monitored. An earthquake of 2.4 on the Richter scale was measured at 5 pm on Monday, but there has been no activity since. Scientists say that an eruption could well start after the flood. If the potential eruption is similar to the one in 2004, it was thought that it might begin Tuesday afternoon. (photos)

**There are a lot of things that are wrong with the world,
but if you watch the news, that’s not the world;
that’s a condensed version of everything negative that’s happening.
If I look past the television set, things are pretty peaceful,
and people treat each other pretty well.**
Jim Carrey


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.4 SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA
5.3 WESTERN TURKEY
5.4 SERBIA [lots of small aftershocks]

Yesterday -
11/2/10 -
5.5 VANUATU
5.2 NORTHWEST OF KURIL ISLANDS
5.8 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.

VOLCANOES -

INDONESIA'S most dangerous volcano is once again sending searing gas clouds and burning rocks down its scorched flanks. No casualties were reported in Mount Merapi's latest blasts today. Thousands of people living along Merapi's slopes have been evacuated to government-run camps well away from the base. The new eruption started at 8.11am local time. It spewed gas and rocks five kilometres down the mountain's slopes. Merapi has killed 38 people in the last week and prompted the government yesterday to order airlines to choose routes circumventing the towering dark ash on takeoff and landing. Several international flights have been cancelled. It is believed that the volcano will continue to spew out gas and rocks for weeks, possibly months, easing pressure building up inside the crater. "There's no way of knowing for sure, of course. But based on what we've seen in the last few days, we're hoping there won't be a massive explosion." More than 1300 kilometres to the west, helicopters and planes were delivering aid to the most distant Mentawai islands, where last week's tsunami destroyed hundreds of homes, schools, churches and mosques. The tsunami death toll stands at 431.
Mt. Anak Krakatau’s activity escalating - Mount Anak Krakatau continued on Sunday its frenzied expulsion of volcanic material, including hot rocks, sand and dust shrouded in toxic fumes — seven times more frequently than just a week earlier. “Usually Mt. Anak Krakatau experiences an average of 90 to 100 small scale eruptions a day. Now, the number of eruptions can reach 700 a day." Mt. Anak Krakatau is a volcano located near Krakatau Island between Sumatra and Java. “Solid material falls on the mountain slopes. However, the sand and volcanic dust can cover greater distances depending on how strong the wind blows."
Krakatau’s volcanic activity has been increasing slowly since last Monday, reaching almost 90 eruptions per day. Activity further escalated after Mt. Merapi in Central Java erupted. A day before the latest eruption, authorities raised the alert status for Mt. Anak Krakatau and advised people to stay at least several kilometers away. Although Mt. Krakatau’s rumblings increased after Mt. Merapi’s eruption, volcanologists claimed that no link existed between the active volcanoes. “No connections exist between the two because they both have their own magma pockets." The weak, local seismic tremors produced by Mt. Merapi’s eruptions lack sufficient energy to trigger volcanic eruptions elsewhere, including at Mt. Krakatau. However, there was a possibility that the eruptions of Mt. Merapi, and Mt. Krakatau were triggered by tectonic movements caused by the Mentawai earthquake. “Based on observation alone, Mt. Merapi erupted not long after the earthquake occurred." Sliding tectonic plates during the earthquake could have created new fissures that acted as conduits for magma. The plates could have shifted and pushed against the “magma kitchen” below Mt. Merapi, thus creating pressure that pushed the magma upwards.

TROPICAL STORMS -
-Cyclone ANGGREK was 1139 nmi S of George Town, Malaysia.
-Tropical storm TOMAS was 274 nmi SSE of Kingston, Jamaica.
[REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS, IT APPEARS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.]

St Lucia - At t least 14 people are now known to have died on the Caribbean island of St Lucia after Hurricane Tomas triggered landslides. The southern town of Soufriere has been worst hit and resembles "a war zone". The storm, which struck at the weekend, also battered the island of St Vincent. Bridges were destroyed, and some of the worst-hit communities in the south could only be reached by boat. "Recovery efforts are very slow. Our efforts to get help to the ravished community have been weakened as a string of fires in homes brings us to our knees." The water mains were empty and trying to get water to the fires "was an exercise in near futility" due to the mountainous landscape. Tomas, downgraded from a hurricane on Sunday evening, lashed islands in the eastern Caribbean with sustained winds of 75mph (120km/h). Tomas, now a tropical storm, is veering towards Haiti where thousands are still homeless after January's earthquake.
On Tuesday it was about 355 miles (570km) south of the Haitian capital Port-au-Prince and moving west at 12mph (19km/h) with sustained winds of 50mph (85km/h). Forecasters have warned that Tomas could strengthen again to a hurricane and that parts of Haiti are in its projected path for later in the week. "Right now they just need to stay tuned - this is the stage to be aware." Relief workers in Haiti were trying to gather emergency shelter, water and sanitation supplies. The US Navy ship Iwo Jima is steaming toward Haiti to be on hand if emergency relief is needed. (map & photo)