Thursday, December 23, 2010

Why did the Met Office forecast a "mild winter" for Britain? Do you remember? They said it would be mild and damp, and between one degree and one and a half degrees warmer than average. "Well, this winter is a corker. Never mind the record low attained in Northern Ireland this weekend. I can't remember a time when so much snow has lain so thickly on the ground, and we haven't even reached Christmas. And this is the third tough winter in a row. Is it really true that no one saw this coming?"
Actually, they did. Piers Corbyn not only predicted the current weather, but he believes things are going to get much worse. Armed only with a laptop, huge quantities of publicly available data and a first-class degree in astrophysics, he gets it right again and again. Back in November, when the Met Office was still doing its "mild winter" schtick, Corbyn said it would be the coldest for 100 years. Indeed, it was back in May that he first predicted a snowy December. He said that the Met Office would be wrong about last year's mythical "barbecue summer", and he was vindicated. He was closer to the truth about last winter, too. He seems to get it right about 85 per cent of the time and serious business people - notably in farming - are starting to invest in his forecasts.
How on earth does he do it? He studies the Sun. He looks at the flow of particles from the Sun, and how they interact with the upper atmosphere, especially air currents such as the jet stream, and he looks at how the Moon and other factors influence those streaming particles. He takes a snapshot of what the Sun is doing at any given moment, and then he looks back at the record to see when it last did something similar. Then he checks what the weather was like on Earth at the time - and he makes a prophecy.
He believes that the last three winters could be the HARBINGER OF A MINI ICE AGE that could be upon us by 2035, and that it could start to be COLDER THAN AT ANY TIME IN THE LAST 200 YEARS. He goes on to speculate that a genuine ice age might then settle in, since an ice age is now cyclically overdue.
Of course he may be just a fluke-artist. It may be just luck that he has apparently predicted recent weather patterns more accurately than government-sponsored scientists. Is it possible that everything we do is dwarfed by the moods of the star that gives life to the world?

**When you are in doubt, be still, and wait;
when doubt no longer exists for you,
then go forward with courage.
So long as mists envelop you, be still;
be still until the sunlight pours through and dispels the mists
-- as it surely will. Then act with courage.**
Ponca Chief White Eagle


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.5 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.3 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.2 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

Yesterday -
12/22/10 -
5.0 NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.1 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
6.5 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.4 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.2 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.3 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.2 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.4 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.6 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.3 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

WAVES -

CANADA - Environment Canada issued warnings Tuesday that fierce winds and pounding waves will strike numerous communities in Newfoundland. The warnings cover the island's south coast, most of its west coast and the Burin, Avalon and Bonavista peninsulas, and compound travel problems that have already cancelled Marine Atlantic's ferry crossings to Nova Scotia. Winds will gust up to 120 km/h in parts of the Avalon and Burin peninsulas. Water levels will be particularly high on the east side of the Burin Peninsula, and in other areas as well. In the notoriously windy Wreckhouse area in southwestern Newfoundland, winds are expected to top 100 km/h. Topography makes it possible for high winds to blow trains off their tracks or, more recently, transport trucks off the Trans-Canada Highway. Marine Atlantic is keeping its ferries in port until Thursday, threatening the Christmas travel plans of hundreds of passengers. Canada Post has said it will not be able to deliver the contents of five large Newfoundland-bound trucks now docked in North Sydney. Hiigh winds may not die down on the Cabot Strait until Saturday.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

CALIFORNIA - Southern California Communities Surrounded By Mud, Rain Subsides and Heads East, Clean Up Begins for Areas Hit the Hardest Wednesday. Southern California residents will get a break today from the wet weather that inundated the region with A YEAR'S WORTH OF RAIN IN JUST ONE WEEK. The series of storms that has pounded the area since last week has triggered mudslides, flooding, swift water rescues and prompted Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to declare a state of emergency for six counties.
In Laguna Beach, a wall of water four feet high poured through downtown, bringing with it a tide of mud. The heavy water has made driving nearly impossible near the Pacific coast, with puddles the size of lakes forcing road closures. On Wednesday morning, a mudslide devastated the town of Highland, near the foothills of the San Bernardino Mountains. Most of the residents' cars are now buried in mud, and more than 20 homes were destroyed in just an instant. In the mountain town of Green Valley Lake, rock slides and flooding and closed off access in and out of the town. (video)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

KOREA - From this afternoon, they're expecting another round of cold snap due to the cold front moving in from the northwest this is going to bring RECORD-BREAKING COLD temperatures once again accomapanied by wind chills and that will at least last into the weekend. Today, Seoul will drop to 2 degrees. Mt. Geumgang will plunge into minus 3 degrees, once again.

There's a major area of low pressure moving away from JAPAN but it's still producing some snowfall across the northern parts of Japan, near Sapporo. The same cold continental high pressure that's affecting Korea is in the northeastern parts of CHINA, so freezing temperatures are there and further south it's going to be fine and dry for the most part. RUSSIA - For Moscow, they're warming up a little just by a few degrees, but it's still minus 8 degrees there. GERMANY & FRANCE - Berlin and Paris still dealing with snow, and Rome, ITALY with heavy rainfall.

UNITED KINGDOM - Freezing Teesside shivered in temperatures as low as -15C Tuesday, as the Met office made cautious predictions for record-breaking lows this winter. Commuters from Stockton, Redcar and Cleveland and Middlesbrough reported “the LOWEST TEMPERATURES THEY HAD EVER KNOWN” at -14C in Ingleby Barwick, -13C in Acklam and Stokesley and -13.5C in Crathorne, as an arctic feel swept right across Teesside and East Cleveland. Temperatures of between -10C and -15C were “fairly typical” across Middlesbrough and East Cleveland. “It is still way below freezing and this is likely to continue from now through Christmas Day and Boxing Day. If the cold temperatures continue in the same vein we are looking, if not at the coldest December, the second coldest December country-wide since records began in 1911. We really are into a RECORD-BREAKING START to winter. Thursday will see a return of North-easterly winds and snow showers will come into the region, especially along the coastal strip.”

NORTH DAKOTA - Fargo set a daily snowfall RECORD Monday with 5.5 inches at Hector International Airport. The old record was 5.4 inches set on Dec. 20, 1967. Snowfall totals from around the region included 6.4 inches in Moorhead and 8.2 inches in Devils Lake. The snowfall brought Fargo-Moorhead’s total for December to 12.8 inches through Monday, or 8.3 inches above normal, and raised the total for the season to 31.4 inches, or 18.7 inches above normal. Fargo-Moorhead’s record snowfall for December came in 2008, when the metro was socked with 33.5 inches – the snowiest month on record in Fargo-Moorhead. This year’s snowfall is also short of the cumulative mark two years ago. In 2008, 36 inches fell in Fargo through December 31, setting up the region for the epic 2009 spring flood. Grand Forks also BROKE A RECORD Monday for precipitation with 0.41 inches at the airport. The old record was 0.36 inches set on Dec. 20, 1967.

BERMUDA - RECORD-BREAKING COLD temperatures continued Tuesday, with the recorded low of 48F/9C the coldest temperature of the year, and also the record low for the whole month of December. “As far as the record low, we actually set two...48F/9C is the record low for the 21st of December, the previous low for this day was 54F/12C set in 1955. We also broke the record low for the whole month of December. The previous low ever reached in December was 50F/10C which we reached twice in 1955 and in 1962." The Bermuda Weather Service climate records date back to 1949.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

TEXAS - Tuesday was the first day of winter, but you wouldn’t know it to look at the thermometer. For the second day in a row, HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKE RECORDS, the third day of RECORD-BREAKING HEAT within a week. “The record high is 83." That record was set in 1981, and Tuesday’s high was forecast at 86 degrees. Tuesday’s temperature reached 84 degrees around 2 p.m. This marks the fourth day of 80-degree days. “Normally it’s one or two days” for 80-degree highs in December.
Tuesday marked a hat trick of December record-breaking weather. Monday, temperatures reached 85 degrees. The previous record occurred in 1921 at 80 degrees. On Dec. 15, a 102-year-old record high of 82 degrees was broken, when temperatures reached 85 degrees. “It’s an ABNORMALLY warm spell." Temperatures should drop steadily for the rest of the week. La Niña, a seasonal product of temperatures lowering in the Pacific Ocean, may be causing the dryness and heat. The phenomena is the opposite of El Niño, which occurs when waters in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America are unusually warm.

HEALTH THREATS -

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-Bright Water Seafood, Tucker, GA is recalling its 7 ounce packages of Buffalo Krab Dip and 7 ounce packages of Southwest Krab Dip because they have the potential to be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes.
-Whole Foods Market announced that it is recalling cheese sold in California, Nevada, Washington State and Washington, D.C. that came from its supplier Sally Jackson Cheese of Oroville, Washington.