LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
Yesterday -
5/5/11 -
5.6 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.3 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
6.2 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
6.1 ALASKA PENINSULA
6.0 ALASKA PENINSULA
5.3 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.3 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
5.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.4 GUERRERO, MEXICO
5.0 MOLUCCA SEA
TROPICAL STORMS -
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
INDIA - Westerlies likely to force a ‘blow out' over Bay of Bengal. Back-to-back western disturbances are now expected to enforce a “blow out” not just in the Bay of Bengal but in the contiguous South China Sea as well. Strong westerlies fanning across the Indian subcontinent and into Southeast Asia could now delay the formation of weather systems in these seas.
The small churn in the south Bay of Bengal of Thursday will be guided north-northeast for a silent wash-over over south Myanmar coast, model runs show. Linearly to farther east, the westerlies will cause a low-pressure in the west Pacific to be blown away northeast above the Philippine archipelago to East China Sea and later into Japan. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting had hinted at the possibility of this “low” entering South China Sea to grow as a tropical cyclone. On Thursday, updated outlook from the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services suggested that the west Pacific could likely witness fresh incremental churn and toss up a “low” over the weekend. Southeast Asia and the eastern half of the Bay of Bengal are expected to witness above normal rainfall during this period. Going forward (May 11 to 17), however, the CPC has put both the west Pacific and the Bay under watch for a tropical storm (likely tropical depression) watch.
Meanwhile, the empirical wave propagation model for predicting outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) by the CPC suggests that a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave may hit southeast Arabian Sea around the beginning of June, the usual date for southwest monsoon over Kerala coast. OLR values are negative indicating presence of clouds and correlates with a wet phase of the MJO wave that travels periodically in the upper atmosphere of the region from west to east. The alternating dry and wet phases of the MJO have usually been associated with concomitant weather on ground above which it passes. Wet MJO waves have usually triggered the onset of the monsoon, apart from plotting the formation of lows, depressions and even cyclones during the season. The dry version usually brings about ‘break-monsoon,' the intra-season break in rainfall and associated weather. CPC forecasts available up to June 13 indicates that a weak wet phase of the MJO wave would be in action around June. Given this, it remains to be seen how strong the onset phase would pan out.
SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -
U.S. - Mississippi floods force evacuations near Memphis. The rising Mississippi river lapped over downtown Memphis streets on Thursday as a massive wall of water threatened to unleash NEAR RECORD FLOODING ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. Water lapped over Riverside Drive and onto Beale Street in Memphis, and threatened some homes on Mud Island, a community of about 5,000 residents with a river theme park. The island connects to downtown Memphis by a bridge and causeway. Emergency officials in Millington near Memphis were "going door-to-door, asking people to leave."
Large amounts of rain and melt from the winter snow has caused a chain reaction of flooding from Canada and the Dakotas through Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, Arkansas and Tennessee. It is expected to soon hit Mississippi and Louisiana at the mouth of the Mississippi River. "The flood is rolling down, it is breaking records as it moves down and it is one of those wait-and-see type of things as to how massive it is going to be when it's all said and done." In Arkansas, westbound traffic on a section of one of the nation's major trucking arteries, Interstate 40, was closed for a second day due to flooding. The White River was expected to crest at its HIGHEST EVER LEVEL of 40 feet at Des Arc, Arkansas on Thursday night, breaking a 1949 record. A levee overflowed near the White River, forcing a mandatory evacuation of the town of Cotton Plant. Officials at the Shelby County Office of Preparedness, that includes Memphis, predicted that the flood could affect 2,832 properties if it crests at 48 feet this coming weekend. A crest of 48 feet would be the river's highest level since 1937. The National Weather Service currently puts the river level at Memphis at 45.21 feet, with an expected rise to 47.6 feet by Monday morning.
The flooding is also affecting towns not directly on the Mississippi. Residents in south Dyersburg, Tennessee, about 20 miles from the Mississippi, have been asked to evacuate because of the projected crest of the North Fork of the Forked Deer River, which runs into the big river. North of Memphis upstream, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers blew up a third section of a Missouri levee Thursday afternoon to let flood waters back into the Mississippi. The river is predicted to crest at 64.5 feet on May 17 in the Vicksburg, Mississippi area. Vicksburg has a flood stage of 48 feet, which means the river will crest more than 16 feet above normal. The flood waters will reach more than a foot above the Yazoo Backwater Levee near Yazoo City, Miss. and this will flood thousands of acres of farmland.
There were major floods on the Mississippi in 1927, 1937, 1973, 1993 and 2008. The 1927 flood caused up to 1,000 deaths and left 600,000 homeless. Floodways were adopted as a response. Much has changed since the 1927 flood, including the structure of the levees and the addition of dozens of reservoirs throughout the Mississippi River basin and floodways. The Mississippi has four floodways: Birds Point and three spillways in Louisiana. "There is a very good possibility that we would operate three floodways ... and WE HAVE NEVER DONE THAT BEFORE."
EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -
Human migration - Extreme weather caused by climate change variables has given another reason for people to migrate, experts say. Asia Development Bank is preparing a report called “Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific." ADB has been looking into migration patterns in the Asia-Pacific region, seeking linkages to natural disasters such as flooding. The report takes the position that climate-induced migration was currently a relatively minor driver of migration because motivations to move were myriad. While the report had taken a preliminary step by identifying areas that may be especially vulnerable to climate-induced migration, more refined work was needed. By focusing development assistance in areas of high vulnerability, people could build resilience in their communities.
Climate-induced migration could be caused by natural disasters, such as flash floods and hurricanes, or slower catastrophes like rising sea levels and soil degradation. Therefore, the types of migration could be very diverse. Certain people would be forced to move because of a displacement situation, while others might move voluntarily. The report said the frequency of extreme weather events, particularly floods, was likely to increase significantly in large coastal cities. Over 60 percent of Indonesia’s population lived in areas prone to water crises in 2000, with 26 percent at risk of coastal flooding. The study said that by 2050 as many as 201 million urban residents in Indonesia would be at risk from multiple hazards due to climate change. In Indonesia, the major reasons driving migration are family and economy. Although Indonesia is prone to various forms of natural disasters, from earthquakes to tsunamis, there are communities who choose to live in disaster-prone areas. In Central Java and Yogyakarta, for example, communities living near the active Mt. Merapi volcano choose to stay because they believe the volcanic debris will make for fertile soil. Another example is a community in Flores, where residents prefer to live near an estuary even though their village is often inundated by the river overflow.
Direct dangers for cities in coastal areas include rising sea levels and storm surges. Impacts of climate change in rural areas could potentially increase the number of people moving to cities. Therefore, proactive urban development programs aimed at increasing the quality of life for urban inhabitants have never been as important as they are today. Other options include low-carbon development strategies to help reduce the cause of climate change, such as improving sold waste management systems and enhancing affordable transportation for the urban poor. Migration is typically a sensitive policy area that is addressed very differently by different nations because migration flows are very different from one country to another. “Also, the local dimension of adaptation needs to be taken into account: Community-based adaptation can be a very efficient strategy in the fight against the impacts of climate change."
