Failed probe likely to return late today - The failed Russian Mars probe, Phobos-Grunt, continued its descent to Earth on Saturday, losing hundreds of metres in height every hour. By 23:00 Saturday (GMT), the 13-tonne spacecraft was circling the planet at a mean altitude of 147km. It is likely to impact the thicker parts of the atmosphere and burn up sometime late today, according to orbital tracking experts.
The Russian space agency says little of the probe will survive to the surface. It calculates no more than 200kg in maybe 20-30 fragments. Precisely where on the Earth's surface - and when - this material could impact is impossible to say. There are huge uncertainties in forecasting the final moments of a re-entry. "The major uncertainty for prediction is the atmospheric density the spacecraft encounters in orbit, but it's also due to the orientation of the vehicle as it comes in. It can very quickly tumble and if pieces break off - that all changes the trajectory and where debris might impact." (map)
but tears shed for others are a sign of strength.**
Billy Graham
LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.
Yesterday -
1/14/12 -
5.7 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.3 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.2 TONGA REGION
1/13/12 -
5.2 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.0 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.2 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.2 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
1/12/12 -
5.3 SOUTH OF AFRICA
5.3 SOUTH OF AFRICA
5.3 TONGA
5.0 TONGA REGION
5.3 TONGA REGION
5.0 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.4 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.7 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
1/11/12 -
5.2 BANDA SEA
5.2 SOUTHEAST CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN
5.0 CENTRAL PERU
5.0 NORTHERN IRAN
1/10/12 -
7.2 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.0 NEAR COAST OF ECUADOR
5.3 TONGA REGION
5.2 VANUATU REGION
VOLCANOES -
COSTA RICA - "Yellow" Alert For Turrialba Volcano Eruption. The emanation of a gray cloud, possibly containing ash, at the Turrialba Volcano was confirmed Thursday afternoon by the Observatorio Vulcanológico y Sismológico de CostaRica, resulting in the closure of the park. The eruption of smoke was confirmed at 3pm Thursday, preceded by rumblings that were detected by locals. Almost immediately the Comisión Nacional de Emergencias - national Emergency Commission - issued a "yellow" alert for the area as a preventive measure. The alert takes effect in the areas of Turrialba, Jiménez and Alvarado. Experts were meeting Friday to discuss the risk and review technical reports to determine possible preventive measures.
Volcanic eruptions subsiding off Canary Island after three months - Undersea volcanic eruptions off the Spanish Canary Island of El Hierro appear to be subsiding, three months after they began, an expert said Tuesday. There has only been minimal seismic activity for several weeks.
TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.
Tropical Cyclone 06S (Heidi) - Heidi made landfall in Western Australia's Pilbara region about 4:30 a.m. on January 12 as a Category 2 cyclone, bringing wind gusts up to 131 kilometers/hour (81 miles/hour) and dumping 128 mm of rain on Port Headland, a coastal town in the path of the storm. A few hours later, local papers reported widespread flooding and power outages to at least 2,000 homes in that area. Heidi was downgraded to a Category 1 cyclone about 9:30 a.m. as it moved south-southwest away from the coast. At this time, Heidi had maintained her well-rounded shape and even appeared to hint at an eye in the center after moving inland, suggesting that the storm still was fairly strong and still a significant rain-maker. By early morning of January 13, Tropical Cyclone Heidi had become a tropical low, but still packed significant wind and heavy rain, bringing the potential for flash flooding as it traveled south. ( image)
HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
UNITED KINGDOM - UK anti-cyclone replaces storms, brings bitter cold. An intense high pressure moved slap-bang over the British Isles on the 12th. The anti-cyclone moved away the intense storms experienced after Christmas and New Year and replaces conditions with bitter cold nights and striking sunsets. The weather phenomenon has been described as acting like a "boulder in the scree" by BBC weather experts. Storms continue to blow around the west coast of Ireland and north of the Scottish mainland. The central mainland area in Europe has recently suffered several metres of snowfall, Austria has been particularly badly affected. The atmospheric conditions which engulfed the British Isles on Thursday night imposed clear blue skies, bitterly cold starry nights and hardly any wind. Night frosts, the first of the winter season, greeted most areas in Britain with thick fog lingering in the countrysides. There was an 80% probability of severe cold weather from midnight on Saturday and 0900 on Tuesday in parts of England. The combination of low sun, blue skies and red evening skies is producing some stunning sunsets.
The settled conditions replace weeks of rain, high winds and exceptionally mild temperatures. The average temperature for London in January is 6c (43f) by day and around 4c (39f) in central Scotland. But even night time lows had hovered well above these levels with some areas in southern England recording 14c (57f) on New Years Eve, warmer than the north African state of Morocco.
RECORD-BREAKING SNOWFALLl in Valdez, Alaska and it's not stopping. Media coverage of the snowfall in the Prince William Sound city describes it as "Valdez Snowmageddon". As of Jan. 5th - 246.6’’ of snow had fallen in Valdez. That’s over 20 feet. The snowstorms continued. "Valdez usually has 151.8 inches of snow by Jan. 12. As of 2 p.m. Thursday, Valdez had seen a total of nearly 321.8 inches this season. That's more than 14 feet above normal." The old timers here are all puzzled by how EARLY these dumps (big short- spanned torrents of snow) are. It usually hits in February.
"The record-breaking winter pushed the local elementary and high school past their legal roof snow-load limits of 90 pounds per square foot." On Jan. 13, the schools were forced to close "for the first time in recent memory" due to fears of roofs collapsing. In terms of what's in store weather-wise for Valdez residents in the next few days, "We are still having a little snow and rain, but it's gonna get cold (as the jet[stream dips south) and everything is gonna freeze solid. Then single digits for a few days." More snow was in store for this weekend.
HEALTH THREATS -
Hong Kong lowers its avian flu alert level - Hong Kong has moved its avian flu warning level back to "alert" after it raised it to "serious" on Dec 20 upon detection of H5N1 in a chicken at a live bird market and in two wild birds. The virus in the bird samples has not mutated compared with other samples collected in the region. "There is no significant change in terms of genetic shifting."
