Reports of damage are still coming in. The quake struck near the Santa Cruz islands, about 300 kilometres east of the Solomons. A 90-centimetre tsunami hit Lata in remote Temotu province. An 11-centimetre wave hit Vanuatu, while a tsunami of around 50 centimetres reportedly hit New Caledonia. A wave was also expected to hit Papua New Guinea and Japan, but it will not be destructive. The Manus Island detention centre was evacuated as a precaution.
The worst hit area is around Lata. "We understand a part of the airstrip has been damaged, which is going to cause some issues in respect to getting relief aid out there, but that is being assessed at this moment." Those killed were a boy aged about 10 years and four elderly people. The hospital is treating others with injuries and more casualties are expected. Hundreds of people around Lata may have been affected by the tsunami.
"According to the information I have there are three villages close to Lata. But it's more likely that other villages along the coast of Santa Cruz may be affected. In one of the villages, I think it's about 600 or 700 people living in that one village." The tsunami arrived in small tidal surges rather than as one large wave. "We have small waves come in, then go out again, then come back in. The waves reached the airport terminal." The worst damage would be to villages on the western side of a point that protects the main township.
About 5,000 people live in and around the town, but the area was deserted as people fled to higher ground. There were major traffic jams in the capital Honiara, while boats and ships moved to open water to avoid any potential waves. Authorities in the Solomons, Fiji, Guam and elsewhere had urged residents to higher ground before the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre cancelled its alerts. "The earthquake would have to be quite a bit bigger to make a much more sizeable tsunami. The good news for the folks in the region is that the tsunami appears to be constrained to the areas we've listed in our bulletins and it's not going to be a an oceanwide threat."
In 2007 a tsunami following an 8.0 quake killed at least 52 people in the Solomons and left thousands homeless. The quake was so powerful that it lifted an island and pushed out its shoreline by dozens of metres. The Solomons are part of the so-called ring of fire, a zone of tectonic activity around the Pacific Ocean that is subject to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. (video & map)
Albert Camus
LARGEST QUAKES -
Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)
This morning -
5.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.7 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
6.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
5.2 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
5.2 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.2 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.2 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.2 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
5.6 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.2 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.2 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.6 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.6 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.2 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.2 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
7.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.7 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.6 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
7.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
8.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
6.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
Yesterday -
2/5/13 -
5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
5.0 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION
5.1 NORTHWEST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 KURIL ISLANDS
Tsunami warnings cancelled as Solomon Islanders assess the quake damage - Solomons officials reported two waves hit the western side of Santa Cruz Island, damaging about 50 homes and properties. Australia's earthquake monitoring agency and the Pacific centre said the biggest tsunami wave measured was 91cm high, at Lata, on the main Santa Cruz island of Ndende. Many villagers had moved to higher ground as a precaution. Vanuatu and New Caledonia also reported rising sea levels before a region-wide tsunami alert was lifted. Sirens were heard in Fiji. "Chaos in the streets of Suva as everyone tries to avoid the tsunami!!"
The US Geological Survey said the quake hit the Santa Cruz Islands in Temotu province, which have been rocked by a series of strong tremors over the past week, at a shallow depth of 5.8 kilometres. Temotu is the easternmost province of the Solomons, about a three-hour flight from the capital, Honiara. The region has a population of about 30,000. Two powerful aftershocks of 6.4 and 6.6 magnitude were also recorded. "The information we are getting is that some villages west and south of Lata along the coast have been destroyed, although we cannot confirm this yet."
Before it was lifted, the Pacific centre's tsunami warning was in effect for the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, Tuvalu, New Caledonia, Kosrae, Fiji, Kiribati, and Wallis and Futuna.
Potential for 'Superquakes' Underestimated, Recent Earthquakes Show - The earthquakes that rocked Tohoku, Japan in 2011, Sumatra in 2004 and Chile in 1960 — all of magnitude 9.0 or greater — should not have happened, according to seismologists' theories of earthquake cycles. And that might mean earthquake prediction needs an overhaul, some researchers say.
All three earthquakes struck along subduction zones, where two of Earth's tectonic plates collide and one dives beneath the other. Earlier earthquakes had released the pent-up strain along Chile's master fault, meaning no big quakes were coming, scientists had thought. Japan and Sumatra both sat above on old oceanic crust, thought to be too stiff for superquakes. And records of past quakes, combined with measurements of the speed of Earth's tectonic plates, suggested the Tohoku and Sumatra-Andaman regions couldn't make quakes larger than 8.4, almost nine times smaller than a magnitude 9.0 temblor.
"These areas had been written off as places incapable of producing a great earthquake." But the events of 1960, 2004 and 2011 showed that these faults were capable of producing some of the most destructive earthquakes in recorded history, suggesting earthquake researchers need to re-think aspects of how they evaluate a fault's earthquake potential. For decades, scientists assumed faults acted like rubber bands, steadily building up strain and then releasing it all at once. The longer the time since the last earthquake, the larger the next earthquake would be, the model predicted.
The problem was researchers failed to recognize that faults can store energy like a battery. And just like batteries, they can discharge energy in small amounts, or all at once. Researchers now think if a "small" quake hits, it may not release all of the accumulated energy in a fault. Thus, a fault can "borrow" stored energy from previous strain-building cycles, generating larger earthquakes than expected, such as those that hit Sumatra and Tohoku. "Those models were already being called into question when Sumatra drove one stake through their heart, and Tohoku drove the second one."
The unusually large and rare earthquakes that discharge the battery are superquakes. The sequence, size and location of quakes vary from one supercycle to the next. The magnitude 9.5 Chile earthquake in 1960, the largest on record, released more energy than had been stored since its most recent quake, in 1837. Tsunami deposits in Chile indicate the last superquake occurred in 1575, and smaller quakes since then had only partly released the strain built up on the fault.
The Cascadia Subduction Zone, which stretches from Northern California to British Columbia, is also in the middle of an earthquake supercycle. Over the past 10,000 years, 19 superquakes and four supercycles have occurred along the zone. "These would typically be of a magnitude from about 8.7 to 9.2, really huge earthquakes. We've also determined that there have been 22 additional earthquakes that involved just the southern end of the fault. We are assuming that these are slightly smaller, more like 8.0, but not necessarily. They were still very large earthquakes that if they happened today could have a devastating impact."
The present cycle seems like it's gently ratcheting downward. "This would suggest that we're not due for a giant [quake] anytime soon, but the model has no predictive value." The battery model of earthquake energy storage and discharge makes it difficult for scientists to forecast future earthquakes, as there's no explanation yet for why faults would behave this way. Plus, it's hard to say how much energy a fault's battery stores. "The long records are revealing very useful things. We're not sure what's driving the long-term cycling, but at least we can tell people what to prepare for."
VOLCANOES -
Volcano Webcams
Volcano activity on February 4
Italy volcano raising anxiety - A restive "super volcano" west of Naples is raising nervousness in the local Italian population. The ground of the Campi Flegrei "burning fields", also known as the Phlegraean Fields, has risen more in recent weeks than it has in a long time. There are concerns that a magma chamber under the fields, presumably connected to the one under Mount Vesuvius, east of Naples, is filling up, the rising pressure possibly heightening the danger of an eruption.
This does not necessary indicate a heightened risk of an eruption, however, said a scientific drilling expert for the German Research Centre for Geosciences. Two episodes of considerable ground uplift since the 1960s were not followed by an eruption. The uplift in the early 1970s, about 1.50 metres in three years, was somewhat greater than the current one. "Many houses cracked," after which the ground deformation sharply subsided.
"But it's true that the uplift has increased again during the past two or three months." Italy's Department of Civil Protection recently raised the alert level for the Phlegraean Fields, where the ground was rising by about three centimetres a month. An international research team began drilling into the ground not far from the caldera last summer to monitor possible early warning signs of an eruption. The team has drilled a pilot hole to a depth of 500 metres but no data has been gathered yet.
The Phlegraean Fields are a large caldera, or volcanic crater, lying mostly underwater off the Italian coast. The caldera is thought to have been formed by a massive eruption some 35 000 to 40 000 years ago. The last major eruption in the fields of boiling mud and sulphurous steam holes, one of a few dozen super volcanoes worldwide, occurred in 1538.
An eruption could have serious consequences for the heavily populated region with knock-on effects for the whole of Europe. There could also be worldwide impact, for example in the form of climatic changes. No forecasts have been made thus far. Since super volcanoes seldom undergo massive eruptions, empirical data is lacking. "It's easy to assert there'll be an eruption sometime. That doesn't help us, though. We need more specific information."
The drilling project aimed in part to monitor the Phlegraean Fields over the long term and gain more knowledge of what had occurred earlier in the super volcano. "First we've got to understand what's happening under the surface." Then it may be possible to say more about the likelihood of an eruption. Fears of nearby residents, and some scientists, that the drilling could "awaken" the super volcano have proved to be unfounded. "Technically, everything went smoothly. No additional volcanic activities were triggered, nor were there any problems with gases or fluids." It has not yet been decided when the scientists will continue their project and begin drilling to a depth of 3km. "At the moment it's mainly a financial question. There'll be deep drilling when Italy provides the necessary funds."
Indonesia - Pyroclastic Flow Deposits From the Paluweh Eruption. Over the weekend, the fairly remote Indonesian volcano Paluweh (also known as Rokatenda) erupted. The size of the eruption is somewhat unclear due to its location on Palu'e Island, north of Flores Island.
Early VAAC reports suggested ash as high as 43,000 feet / ~13 km, however reports from on the ground put it closer to 13-16,000 feet / 4-5 km. Now, that is a sizable difference and possibly the early VAAC reports from satellite and aerial observations got the height wrong - but in any case, the volcano did experience a notable explosive eruption. Ash fell on towns on the nearby island of Flores, with thicknesses in the millimeters (noticeable but not very hazardous). The island had been evacuated (~10,000 villagers) earlier last year after the volcano showed signs of unrest.
A dome had been growing at Paluweh since at least November 2012, and as we’ve seen before at other volcanoes, these lava domes can oversteepen and collapse as lava intrudes from underneath and pushes the dome outward. Two things happen when the dome collapses - first, a pyroclastic flow forms from the rubbles of the collapsed dome (typically the material is still hot) and if pressure was building under the dome from degassing magma, an explosive eruption can occur when the pressure drops from the loss of the dome. If the dome continues to collapse, we might expect more small explosive eruptions from Paluweh, although activity has declined since the weekend. (satellite imagery)
TROPICAL STORMS -
No tropical storms.
Australia - Long-term rain records tumble in ex-cyclone Oswald's wake. The Mary River catchment experienced its HIGHEST-EVER RECORDED RAINFALL on January 27 when 250.29mm of rain fell. The previous record was 229.55 in 1955.
The Burnett catchment also set a NEW RECORD FOR TOTAL RAINFALL on January 27, with 204mm recorded, beating the previous record by more than 80mm. One-day catchment RECORDS WERE ALSO SET in the Burrum, Kolan and Logan-Albert catchments. The most extreme rainfalls were in the region between Rockhampton and Bundaberg, and in the ranges along the New South Wales and Queensland border region. Upper Springbrook in the Gold Coast hinterland received 1496mm in eight days, and Boolaroo Tops, south-west of Gladstone, 1426mm.
EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -
Australia -
Victoria fire fights continue amid hot weather - As Victorian firefighters keep battling two major bushfires, smaller spot fires have broken out in windy, dry conditions across the state.
Total fire bans in place in New South Wales Riverina - Total fire bans are in place in NSW for the northern and southern Riverina districts, where temperatures are expected to reach 37 degrees on Thursday.
HEALTH THREATS -
Massachusetts shuts 11 pharmacies amid meningitis inspections - State officials have ordered 11 pharmacies to completely or partially shut down their operations after a series of unannounced inspections prompted by the deadly nationwide outbreak of fungal meningitis.
