Monday, May 13, 2013

Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Mahasen is gathering strength over the Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, and is a potential major threat to Bangladesh and Myanmar. Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclone Mahasen is in for a long haul as it lurked 1,230 km south-east of Chennai, India and 1,650 km south-west of Chittagong, Bangladesh, on Saturday afternoon. Tracker models give the enormous storm, whose WING SPAN COVERS THE WHOLE BAY, a free run of the warm waters of the basin for at least the next four to five days.
Warm seas fuel convection and feed the storm with moisture. ‘Ventilation’ at the top of the storm tower (rising kilometres high) allows it to ‘breathe’ and sustain itself. Mahasen underwent intensification at a frenetic pace even as it moved laterally across waters in a west-northwest direction from where it had lain as a low-pressure area a day ago.
The storm is forecast to intensify as a severe cyclonic storm and even further as a very severe cyclonic storm by Monday. It would continue to advance closer to Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast until it gets stopped mid-sea by a western disturbance moving across North-west and East India. Mahasen would be forced to re-curve, turning almost 90 degrees to east-northeast and head towards the Bangladesh-Myanmar coast.
It would spare the Indian coast from a direct hit, but is expected to set up high winds and moderate to heavy rain along the coasts of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha; eastern parts of Chhattisgarh and Bihar; entire Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and the North-Eastern States. In fact, Mahasen would miss Kolkata by a whisker as it barrels its way to the South of the metropolis and storms into Bangladesh and Myanmar.
A couple of models even suggested Chittagong as a likely target, in which case Kolkata, Gangetic West Bengal and the adjoining North-East also could face the storm’s fury. Another model went to the extent of projecting that Mahasen would scythe through the Sunderbans and into West Bengal proper. But all these projections would have to wait until Mahasen comes under the influence of the western disturbance and the virility with which it launches itself on the home stretch. This is expected to take until Wednesday or early Thursday, allowing disaster managers to take stock of the situation and assess its damaging impact across the region. (satellite photo)

**If you do a job too well, you will get stuck with it.**


Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
5/12/13 -
5.6 SOUTHERN IRAN (also 3.5, 4.4, 3.9, 4.0, 4.2, 3.8, 3.6, 4.2, 4.1, 4.0, 3.5, 3.6, 3.7, 3.6, 3.8, 4.4, 4.1, 3.7, 4.5, 3.5, 4.5, 3.5, 4.2, 3.7, 4.6, 4.4, 3.7, 3.6, 3.6, 4.1, 4.5, 4.5, 4.3)

Volcano Webcams

Mexico readies shelters - Seismic activity has increased at the Popocatepetl volcano near Mexico City, leading authorities to alert towns in two central states and the capital. Mexico's National Disaster Prevention Centre says the volcano spewed a plume of steam more than a kilometre into the sky. The volcano shook on Saturday night, sometimes emitting glowing rock over the crater.
The eruptions started strengthening two weeks ago and have increased even more this weekend. The government deployed soldiers and federal police to the area on Sunday in the event of a bigger eruption, and officials closed off an 18sq/km (seven-square-mile) zone around the cone of the volcano. State authorities prepared shelters. Popocatepetl has put out small eruptions of ash almost daily since a round of activity began in 1994.


In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical Cyclone Mahasen was located approximately 673 nm southward of Calcutta, India.

Cyclone 'Mahasen' to hit Bangladesh's southern coast by Tuesday - Cautionary signal “3” has been sounded for all ports by the Met department and fishermen have been asked to stay away from the sea.
The tropical storm is threatening to hit the Coromandel Coast of India much before the southwest monsoon's onset this year, even as most districts of Tamil Nadu are reeling under severe drought. A deep depression over the south-east Bay of Bengal has moved north-westwards and intensified into a cyclonic storm, which has been christened as ‘Mahasen’.
“Mahasen” on Saturday morning lay centered about 350 km south-west of Car Nicobar in the Andamans, 1,030 km east-southeast of Trincomalee (in Sri Lanka) and 1,300 km southeast of Chennai, India. The storm will intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during the next 24 hours.
The cyclonic storm would initially move north-westwards during the next 24-36 hours and “recurve thereafter north-eastwards towards the Bangladesh-Myanmar coast,” the Met office said. In this backdrop, the Met office predicted ‘isolated rain or thundershowers’ for north Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry coast. Isolated rain or thunder showers were also predicted for the south and north Andhra Coast.


California - Lake County homes sinking; 'it's a slow-motion disaster'. Eight homes are now abandoned and 10 others are under notice of imminent evacuation as a hilltop with sweeping vistas of Clear Lake and the Mt. Konocti volcano swallows the subdivision built 30 years ago.


A creeping wave of ice has come ashore on the banks of Lake Mille Lacs in Minnesota. Strong winds pushed floes towards the water's edge creating cascades of ice crystals which pushed up against trees and houses in 15 minutes. No one has been injured by the ice, but one home has reportedly suffered mild damage. (Video)

Creeping ice destroys Canadian homes - Video.


FILAMENT ERUPTION - An unstable filament of magnetism on the Earthside of the sun erupted during the early hours of May 12th. The erupting filament did not spark a significant solar flare (that is, there was no strong flash of X-radiation), but it did hurl part of itself into space. A bright coronal mass ejection (CME) emerged from the blast site andcould deliver a slight, glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on May 15th.