Monday, July 8, 2013

**Life isn’t about waiting for the storm to pass,
it’s about learning to dance in the rain.**

No update on Tuesday this week.


Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -

Yesterday -
7/7/13 -

Aceh Quake Victims in Need of Aid as 50,000 Left Homeless - The death toll of the earthquake in Indonesia has increased to 40 from 30 as previously reported. 232 villages — some 66 percent — were directly affected by the quake, leaving some 48,500 residents displaced in Central Aceh. Rescue crews continued to search for four people still missing and believed to be buried under a landslide in Serempah village.
“It’s been quite difficult to find the missing victims because [they're believed to have been covered by] a 500-meter high landslide and because Serempah village sits between two steep hills.” The BNPB sent more than 40 tons of aid to Aceh, but efforts to distribute food, water and clothes have been hampered by residents refusal to gather at centralized locations. “People here do not like mingling with residents [from other villages] in a shelter. So they built shabby tents in front of their destroyed or damaged homes. No wonder some [media] reports say quake victims haven’t received aid; they are scattered across a large area. But we are working hard to distribute the aid.”
Province-wide some 50,000 people remained homeless on Sunday. More than 2,300 victims were treated and released from area hospitals while 63 remained in treatment for injuries sustained during the quake. Nearly 16,000 houses and more than 600 public facilities were reduced to rubble.
In Bener Meriah, nine people were reportedly killed as buildings in eight of the 233 villages collapsed. Some 3,000 left their damaged homes behind and lack basic needs like warm blankets, shelter and baby food. “We really hope that donors, volunteers and the provincial and central governments can supply family tents for displaced people in Bener Meriah. They’re in a terrible situation.”

Volcano Webcams


In the Atlantic Ocean -
Tropical storm Chantal [briefly 96L] was located about 865 mi (390 km) ESE of Barbados - racing west-northwestward toward the Lesser Antilles. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Barbados, Dominica and Saint Lucia. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Saint Vincent. The center of Chantal should approach the Lesser Antilles late Monday night or early Tuesday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

In the Western Pacific -
Tropical storm Soulik was located approximately 240 nm north of Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands.

In the Eastern Pacific -
Tropical storm Erick was located about 165 mi (265 km) SSE of the southern tip of Baja California. The center of Erick should pass near or just south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Monday morning. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to La Paz. Erick weakened from a 80 mph Category 1 hurricane on Saturday to a 70 mph tropical storm on Sunday.

A strong and UNUSUALLY WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON (95L) was speeding westwards at 20 - 25 mph over the Central Atlantic. The system has several well-developed low-level spiral bands, but is fighting dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). July African tropical waves typically have considerable trouble getting organized in the very dry air of the SAL, and the only factor keeping 95L from currently being classified as a tropical depression is the relative lack of persistent heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of the storm due to dry air.
The latest SAL analysis shows that 95L has moistened the air around it sufficiently to keep the SAL somewhat at bay. Wind shear is light to moderate and ocean temperatures are warm, 27.5 - 28°C. None of the reliable forecast models predict that 95L will develop. Climatology argues against 95L becoming a tropical depression east of the Lesser Antilles Islands; there have been only 20 July tropical depressions that have formed east of the Lesser Antilles since 1851, an average of one tropical cyclone every eight years. [As of Sunday night, 95L no longer appeared on NOAA maps]
A new tropical wave has emerged from the coast of Africa. This wave will need to be watched for development late this week, but is farther north than 95L, and may have trouble with dry air as it moves westward across the Atlantic. (satellite photos)

Tropical Storm Soulik nears Philippines Area of Responsibility, may enhance monsoon rains by Thursday. The tropical cyclone approaching the Philippines from the east intensified into a tropical storm Monday morning and may enhance the southwest monsoon later this week.