Monday, November 8, 2010

MYSTERY BOOMS - NORTH CAROLINA - 11/5 & 6, 2010 - Saturday, booms rattled Southeastern N.C. residents for second time in 24 hours. Residents across Southeastern North Carolina said something shook their homes Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. It wasn't an earthquake – at least not one large enough to register. Residents across the area, from Holden Beach to Leland to Wilmington, claim to have felt their homes shake at about 2:20 p.m. Friday and again after 10 a.m. Saturday. A resident of Carolina Beach heard a loud boom around 10:15 a.m. and another one about 20 minutes later. Others reported booms from Monkey Junction to downtown Wilmington to the University of North Carolina Wilmington campus around the same time Saturday morning. A geologist doesn't discount that people felt something, but he checked all seismic records and found no unusual seismic activity. The U.S. Geological Survey, which notifies the state quickly if there is an earthquake, has not posted anything.
If not an earthquake, what could it be? Perhaps the so-called Seneca Guns. Those are mysterious noises often compared to rolling thunder or distant cannon fire frequently heard off the Cape Fear coast and the Myrtle Beach area. To date, no satisfactory scientific explanation for the phenomenon has been found. North Carolina's coast juts out into the Atlantic, essentially making it into a giant microphone. “You could be hearing stuff from well offshore."
Phone calls have poured in from across the Cape Fear reporting loud booms strong enough to shake the earth. The Marine Corp in Jacksonville says it's not playing war games out in the ocean. Sunny Point isn't claiming anything. The nuclear power plant is Brunswick County says its not responsible. There are no reports of any planes creating sonic booms. The Sheriff's Departments in New Hanover, Pender and Brunswick Counties are also getting reports of shaking, but don't know what the cause was. The explanation that many are now suggesting is the legend of the "Seneca Guns." Some believe the ghosts of the Seneca Indians are getting revenge by using the guns that Europeans used on them so many years ago.

**Never explain. Your friends do not need it and your enemies will not believe it anyway.**
Elbert Hubbard


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
11/7/10 -
5.0 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.4 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.1 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 NORTHERN ALASKA

VOLCANOES -

INDONESIA - Malaysia has moved to airlift hundreds of its nationals from Indonesia as Mount Merapi volcano continues its massive eruption. It sent three C-130 transport aircraft to Solo airport to collect 664 stranded Malaysians, many of them students. Some airlines have stopped flying to Jakarta over fears of ash damage. There was no sign of the eruption abating. 283,000 people have now been forced to flee. More than 130 people have died since Merapi began erupting two weeks ago, its greatest activity in a century. Victims were being given a mass burial in Yogyakarta on Sunday.
The infamously volatile mountain unleashed its most powerful eruption on Friday, sending hot clouds of gas, rocks and debris down its slopes at frightening speeds, smothering entire villages and leaving a trail of charred corpses. Frustration among air travellers was growing. US President Barack Obama is scheduled to arrive in Jakarta on 9 November for a long-expected visit. White House officials said on Saturday there was no sign so far of any disruption to his schedule.

PHILIPPINES - The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology recorded Sunday increased seismic activity at Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon province, 24 hours after the active volcano spewed a 600-meter ash column and grayish steam last Saturday. State volcanologists noted that at least 10 volcanic earthquakes and four explosion-type events have been documented subsequent to the emission of ash and steam at 8 a.m. on Saturday. Since 2 p.m. on Saturday, visual monitoring of the volcano's other activities were being obscured by thick clouds covering the volcano's summit. People residing near the valleys and streams were advised to be “extra alert” against sediment-laden stream flows in the event of heavy rains. Bulusan Volcano is considered the 4th most active volcano in the country, after mounts Mayon, Taal, and Pinatubo. It has erupted 15 times since 1886.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical cyclones.

Sunday, November 7, 2010

INDONESIA - At least a hundred flights into Indonesia's capital Jakarta were cancelled after Merapi volcano unleashed its MOST POWERFUL ERUPTION IN A CENTURY, incinerating villagers as they fled a searing gas cloud. The number of people killed by Mount Merapi in the last two weeks has climbed to 138, as a tiny hospital at the foot of the mountain struggles to cope with survivors, some with burns on up to 95 per cent of their bodies. At least 94 of those died on Friday, Merapi's DEADLIEST DAY IN DECADES. More than 200 others were injured with burns, respiratory problems, broken bones and cuts, leaving the tiny hospital of Sardjito overwhelmed. Indonesia's most volatile mountain unleashed a surge of searing gas, rocks and debris on Friday that raced down its slopes at highway speeds, mowing down the slope-side village of Bronggang and leaving a trail of charred corpses in its path. It continued to rumble yesterday, at times spitting ash up to eight kilometres in the air, dusting windshields, rooftops and leaves on trees hundreds of kilometres to the west. Just days before US President Barack Obama's visit to Indonesia, international carriers cancelled flights to Jakarta over concerns about the volcano, 450km away. The move was premature, as the dust wasn't causing problems either in the skies above the airport or on its runways. The airport handles about 1200 flights a day, and the airline decisions caused about 10 per cent of those to be cancelled. Conditions were also deteriorating at emergency shelters in the shadow of the volcano that are crammed with more than 200,000 people evacuated from the mountain.
The Indonesian government, meanwhile, has expanded a "danger zone" to a ring 20km from the peak, bringing it to the edge of the ancient royal capital of Yogyakarta, which has been put on its highest alert. The biggest threat is the Code River, which flows into the city of 400,000 from the 3000-metre mountain and could act as a conduit for deadly volcanic mudflows that form in heavy rains. Racing at speeds of 100km/h, the molten lava, rocks and other debris can destroy everything in their path. People living near the river's banks have been advised to stay away. "It's scary...The eruption just keeps going on." Merapi's latest round of eruptions began on October 26, followed by more than a dozen other powerful blasts and thousands of tremors. With each new eruption, scientists and officials have steadily pushed the villagers who live along Merapi's slopes farther from the crater. The latest eruption released 50 million cubic metres of volcanic material, making it "the biggest in at least a century" at Merapi and plumes of smoke continued to shoot up more than 10,000 metres.
Geologists Warning of Mega-Eruption of Merapi. The Merapi eruptions are becoming more violent – and the big bang could be just ahead. The Indonesian volcano has been spewing 800°C ash clouds for days. “Merapi is among the most dangerous volcanoes." The biggest known eruptions occurred in 1006, 1369, 1786, 1822, 1872 – destroying a large number of villages – and 1930 when 1300 people perished.
Investigations of the volcano have revealed that an UNPRECEDENTED Magma reservoir lurks underneath it.
A rough estimate indicates that there is three times more magma than what was ejected by the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815 – the biggest eruption in the last 10,000 years, which led to a cooling of the climate globally. Geoscientists aren’t sure what to make of this huge magma reservoir. They are hesitant to make predictions of catastrophe. Word of a ‘mega-eruption’ is making the rounds among scientists. But apparently they are avoiding the use of the word to avoid being labelled preachers of disasters. History shows, however, that volcanoes in Indonesia have a worrisome potential for catastrophic eruptions. (Great map of all of Indonesia's major volcanoes)

**I have experienced levitation. It’s totally effortless;
you’re surprised. But after a while the surprise wears off
and then it is not so interesting any more.**
Deepak Chopra


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 NORTHERN ALASKA

Yesterday -
11/6/10 -
5.2 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 TARAPACA, CHILE
5.0 XINJIANG-XIZANG BORDER REGION

11/5/10 -
5.8 MASBATE REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.2 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.2 VANUATU

SERBIA - A series of aftershocks reaching 4.4 magnitude has rattled central Serbia, upsetting residents after an earthquake that killed two people and wounded 50. Friday a number of small tremors shook the town of Kraljevo and its surroundings throughout the night. The strongest tremor hit late Thursday. Kraljevo town authorities say the tremors sent people fleeing from their homes in panic. Many people spent the night in their cars. Several people were lightly injured. The area 120 kilometres (75 miles) south of Belgrade was hit by a 5.3 magnitude earthquake early Wednesday. Some 4,000 houses have been reported damaged by the quake.

VOLCANOES -

PHILIPPINES - A volcano in the Philippines has released a plume of steam and ash but scientists say an explosive eruption is not expected. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology says Saturday's activity at Bulusan volcano was caused by groundwater interacting with hot rocks and not rising magma. The cloud of steam and ash rose 1,980 feet (600 metres) and fell over areas as far as six miles (10 kilometres) from the mountain. The institute says there could be more hydrothermal disturbances and has warned people to keep away from a 2.5-mile (4-kilometre) permanent danger zone around Bulusan's summit. Bulusan is one of the country's 23 active volcanoes. It is located about 240 miles (380 kilometres) southeast of Manila.

ICELAND - There are no signs yet of the underground tremors that would signal an eruption at Grimsvotn. Grimsvotn lies under 650 feet (200 meters) of ice on the Vatnajokull glacier in southeast Iceland. In addition to 2004, it erupted in 1998 and 1996, causing flooding to a largely uninhabited plain around it. The flooding triggered by hot molten rock, or magma, from the volcano has been expanding a lake underneath the glacier, building pressure strong enough to send water pouring from under the ice cap.

NEW ZEALAND - North Islanders are being told to bone up on volcanoes. An eruption is coming, warns a volcanologist, and anyone living pretty much north of Wellington should be prepared. A group of volcano experts are advising local bodies, emergency services, government agencies and district health boards at a conference in Taupo this week, on how they can best prepare to cope with the aftermath of an eruption. The venue is deliberately fitting – the Taupo volcanic zone is the most productive volcanic system on Earth. Eruptions, when they happen, are big. It's not the lava or the possibility of lahar that Kiwis need worry about, but ash. "Lava flows and lahars are very damaging, but they tend to be local. We spend a lot of time talking about volcanic ash because worldwide it's the most disruptive and travels a long way."
Fortunately, New Zealand volcanologists are world leaders when it comes to understanding the impact of ash fallout and know how it affects water and electricity supply, waste water treatment plants, pasture and buildings. Expertise developed following the 1996 eruption of Mt Ruapehu, and this year Kiwi scientists were called in to advise on the likely impact of ash fallout following the eruption of Iceland's Mt Eyjafjallajokull, which closed airports across Europe. Also on the agenda of the Taupo conference is an insight into supervolcanoes, capable of pushing out 500 cubic kilometres of magma or more. "It's a number you can't fathom." And there have been at least two in the world in the past 350,000 years. New Zealand doesn't harbour any supervolcanoes but it does have its younger sibling, the caldera volcano. Taupo, Okataina and Rotorua are considered the most active though the Taupo volcanic area has seven or eight calderas that have been active in the last million years. (photo)

Just a RUMOR? - Possible eruption from the Oku Volcanic Field in Cameroon - There were a couple brief articles that an eruption has occurred near the border region of Cameroon and Nigeria - in the state of Benue, which is midway along of the eastern border of the two countries. The report claims that "vibrations on the earth overwhelmed the area" and that then there was a "a sudden eruption from six points on the mountainous terrain", which then "lava from the mountain cover[ed] wells, streams, trees and houses in the area". People in the vicinity had to flee, but one person died in the "eruption" and many buildings were damaged. Also, water supplies were contaminated by the lava - although the report says that it was "polluted by the heavy magma," which feels like a missed translation. Overall, this sounds like a basaltic lava flow or flows that came from previously unidentified vents - and the fact it was described as "six points" makes me think it could be a fissue eruption.
Figuring out exactly was is erupting is a little perplexing. First, there aren't any known active volcanoes in Nigeria near the state of Benue. The Oku Volcanic Field is a field of cinder cones and maars near the border with Nigeria, but in Cameroon. The field is part of a large Mt. Oku, which is a stratovolcano that is now cut by a caldera. There are no historical eruptions of the field, but it does host volcanic lakes like Lake Nyos and Monoun, both of which had catastrophic carbon dioxide releases in 1986 and 1984, respectively. These releases may have been a product of phreatic explosions that overturned the lake waters, but this has never been confirmed. If this eruption is, in fact, from the Oku Volcanic Field, it would be the first subaereal eruption there on record.
[There are only two or three sources showing this Benue info, one of them the Nigerian Sun News, which makes it a big headline on its first page. However there is not even a hint on this event on several other Nigerian media. Nigerian forums show a very skeptical reaction to it. No “neutral” source is showing if anything important is going either at Nyos or Nigeria-Cameroon border. In fact, it is more probable that someone is spreading rumours about that region.]
UPDATE: Some more strange news reports out of the region. One post says that the Nigerian government is making preparations for a collapse at Lake Nyos, but it mentions nothing about an eruption. Last week the National Emergency Management Agency reportedly sent an alert to residents of over 200 communities in Taraba State of impending danger of the possibility of being swept away by over 132 million cubic metres of flood water, which was expected to be released as a result of a possible breakage of Lake Nyos. According to the reports, it was estimated that 200 communities with an average number of 1,000 families per community and an average number of seven people per household in Taraba State might be sacked if the breakage occurred at the lake. The Federal Government on Friday said the imminent eruption of Lake Nyos into Nigeria was just a rumor.

TROPICAL STORMS -
-Cyclone JAL was 713 nmi WSW of Rangoon, Burma
-Hurricane Tomas was north of Cuba

HAITANS were mopping up the muddy wreckage left by Tomas, after the killer storm swept through the impoverished nation as a hurricane. Tomas appeared to have spared the flimsy tent camps that are home to over a million people. "We were very pleased to see that the impact was not nearly as bad as we had expected. Downgraded to a tropical storm after killing six people in floods and house collapses in Haiti, Tomas was spinning into the open Atlantic. Heavy rains and powerful winds continued to lash Haiti off and on for hours after the storm moved on, and flooding cut off some parts of the country, while authorities warned of a heightened risk of mudslides.
In the capital Port-au-Prince, people were up to their ankles in water, wading through mud as they carried potable water and other essential supplies to their cramped living quarters in the huge refugee camps that have grown around the city since the quake that killed 250,000 people. The flooding caused concern among health officials, and aid groups worried it may exacerbate a cholera epidemic in the northern part of the country that has already killed 442 people, with the disease contracted in part after people drank infected river water. The infected Artibonite River has flooded, "which is bad news because it has been particularly affected by cholera". The southern town of Leogane was completely under water up to three metres deep in parts. "We are going to have more victims because of the floods and mudslides, but we cannot yet reach the communities most affected."
But the canvas and tarpaulin shelters that hundreds of thousands of people call home appeared to have withstood the storm better than expected, thanks to pre-storm preparations including hastily dug drainage ditches and sandbag barriers. All coastal watches and warnings were discontinued but the massive cloud coverage threatened to dump up to five centimetres over portions of Puerto Rico and the Turks and Caicos Islands, even as winds and storm surges were expected to subside.

JAL - After hitting Andhra Pradesh and several parts of Tamil Nadu in India, the pacing cyclonic storm 'Jal' is expected to lash Chennai and other surroundings of the city with heavy rain by tonight. 'Jal' is expected to cross between Puducherry and Nellore coast. The rainfall could be over 25 cm in one or two places in and around Chennai. Storm surge of about 1 to 2 metres above the astronomical tide may inundate the low-lying coastal areas of Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram and Chennai districts in the state.

GULF OIL DISASTER -

Scientists find 'dramatic' damage to marine life near BP spill site in the Gulf of Mexico - Scientists have found evidence of "dramatic" damage to deep-sea coral near the site of the Gulf oil disaster, with one biologist describing it as a shocking find that "slapped you in the face.

SPACE WEATHER -

Active sunspot 1121 has unleashed ONE OF THE BRIGHTEST X-RAY SOLAR FLARES IN YEARS, an M5.4-class eruption at 15:36 UT on Nov. 6th. Radiation from the flare created a wave of ionization in Earth's upper atmosphere that altered the propagation of low-frequency radio waves. There was, however, no bright CME (plasma cloud) hurled in our direction, so the event is unlikely to produce auroras in the nights ahead. This is the third M-flare in as many days from this increasingly active sunspot. So far none of the eruptions has been squarely Earth-directed, but this could change in the days ahead as the sun's rotation turns the active region toward our planet. (photo)

Friday, November 5, 2010

INDONESIA - The death toll from Indonesia's fiery volcano has nearly doubled to 79 after a blistering gas cloud ripped through the mountainside village of Bronggang. 35 bodies were brought in after the inferno. More than 65 others were injured, many of them critically. Men with ash-covered faces streamed down Mount Merapi on motorcycles followed by truckloads of women and crying children, following the massive eruption just late last night. It was not immediately clear why families living within Merapi's "danger zone" had not been evacuated.

**In science, if you can’t explain what you’re doing
to a non-scientist of reasonable intelligence,
then you probably don’t really know yourself.**
James Lovelock


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.1 VANUATU

Yesterday -
11/4/10 -
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.4 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.1 VANUATU
5.0 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN

SERBIA - Authorities say more than 4000 houses have been reported damaged in an earthquake this week in Serbia that killed two people.

VOLCANOES -

Volcanic Eruptions Affect Rainfall Over Asian Monsoon Region - Some regions drier, others wetter. Scientists have long known that large volcanic explosions can affect the weather by spewing particles that block solar energy and cool the air. Some suspect that extended "volcanic winters" from gigantic eruptions helped kill off dinosaurs and Neanderthals. In the summer following Indonesia's 1815 Tambora eruption, frost wrecked crops as far away as New England, and the 1991 blowout of the Philippines' Mount Pinatubo lowered average global temperatures by 0.7 degrees F - enough to mask the effects of greenhouse gases for a year or so.
Now, scientists have discovered that eruptions also affect rainfall over the Asian monsoon region, where seasonal storms water crops for nearly half of Earth's population. Big eruptions tend to dry up much of Central Asia, but bring more rain to southeast Asian countries including Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Myanmar - the opposite of what many climate models predict. "We might think of the solid Earth and the atmosphere as two different things, but everything in the system is interconnected. Volcanoes can be important players in climate over time." Large explosive eruptions send up sulfur compounds that turn into tiny sulfate particles high in the atmosphere, where they deflect solar radiation. The resulting cooling on Earth's surface can last for months or years.
Not all eruptions have that effect, however. For instance, the continuing eruption of Indonesia's Merapi this fall has killed dozens, but this latest episode is probably not big enough by itself to effect large-scale weather changes, scientists believe. As for rainfall, in the simplest models, lowered temperatures decrease evaporation of water from the surface to the air. Less water vapor translates to less rain. But matters are greatly complicated by atmospheric circulation patterns, cyclic changes in temperatures over the oceans, and the shapes of land masses. Until now, most climate models incorporating changes in the sun and the atmosphere have predicted that volcanic explosions would disrupt the monsoon by bringing less rain to southeast Asia - but the researchers found the opposite. (map & photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
-Cyclone 05B was 631 nmi SW of Rangoon, Burma
-Cyclone ANGGREK was 1753 nmi SSW of Bangkok, Thailand
-Tropical storm TOMAS was 108 nmi SSE of Kingston, Jamaica

INDIA - Farmers in coastal Andhra and parts of Telangana are likely to have a bleak Diwali as the bumper crop that was ready for harvesting has been washed away in flash floods caused by incessant heavy rains during the past 48 hours. It was heart-wrenching in East Godavari and Krishna districts where paddy farmers, who were jubilant over the bumper crop in over 1.20 lakh hectares and had delayed harvesting by a day, helplessly witnessed heavy rains that started on Monday. In East Godavari, standing crop in 87,962 hectares and 55,000 ha in Krishna district was washed away overnight. The death toll due to incessant heavy rains in coastal Andhra rose to 36 by Thursday evening.

HAITI - Heavy rain started to fall in the Haitian capital Port-au-Prince as powerful storm Tomas threatens thousands of vulnerable earthquake survivors. The battered nation appeared likely to avoid a direct hit, but forecasters expect heavy rain to last for days. The government has urged the 1.3 million people living in tented homes to find sturdier shelter, but most have stayed, saying they have nowhere to go. Forecasters say Tropical Storm Tomas is gaining strength and warn of the danger of flooding and mudslides. Health workers fear heavy rain will exacerbate Haiti's cholera epidemic.The atmosphere in the camps was "a mixture of fear and desperation - or resignation". "It is the third big problem people here have had to deal with this year."
Tomas is expected to make landfall in Haiti early today. On Thursday afternoon, the storm was churning across the Caribbean about 450km (280 miles) west-south-west of the capital Port-au-Prince, with maximum sustained winds of 85km/h (50mph). The NHC warned of hurricane conditions - winds of 119km/h (74mph) or greater - for Haiti, the south-eastern Bahamas, the Caicos Islands and the Cuban province of Guantanamo. It also issued a tropical storm warning for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba and Holguin. The storm is expected to dump as much as 38cm (15in) of rain over Haiti and the neighbouring Dominican Republic, with more heavy rain over Jamaica and Cuba. On Wednesday health officials said there had been a 40% jump in the number of new cholera cases and the death toll was 442, with 105 more deaths since Saturday.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC on Thursday declared alerts across the country due to the pouring rains caused by tropical storm Tomas. The red alert is for Barahona, Bahoruco, Pedernales, Independencia, San Juan de la Maguana and Elias Pina. Meantime, Azua, Dajabon, Montecristi, Santiago Rodriguez, La Vega, Espaillat, Hermanas Mirabal, Duarte, Mairia Trinidad Sanchez and San Cristobal are under yellow alert. Tomas will continue for at least three days, and there will be rains even after Tomas leaves the country. The rains have already caused Yaque del Sur River in the south to overflow.
Tomas is moving north-northwest at a speed of some 13 km per hour at a latitude of 15.8 degrees north and a longitude of 76.1 degrees west, at some 510 km southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti's capital, and 540 km west-southwest of Beata Island. Tomas has maximum sustained winds of 85 kph. According to forecasts, Tomas will move by the Winds Canal, between Haiti and Jamaica in the northeast direction. The storm will reach Haiti's western coasts this morning, with the possibility of becoming a hurricane of category one.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

COSTA RICA - A landslide caused by heavy rain has killed at least 20 people in a suburb of the capital, San Jose. A number of people are still missing. A hillside gave way, sending tons of rock and earth onto the houses below. The Costa Rican government is considering declaring a national emergency. Rescuers were searching for survivors in the district, where poor people live in shanty dwellings alongside much more upmarket homes. The President requested help from neighbouring countries to reach remote areas of the country that have been flooded by the storm.
Tthe downpour was likely to continue into today. Hundreds of people in the capital and along the Pacific coast have been moved to temporary accommodation because of the flooding. The rains may have damaged several major coffee-growing areas in Costa Rica's highlands. The equivalent of THREE TIMES THE AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF NOVEMBER HAS BEEN RECORDED IN THREE DAYS since Tuesday in the Pacific area.

NIGERIA - The National Emergency Management Agency has confirmed that, as of October, about 500,000 were displaced due to the devastating floods in many parts of the country. “The country has witnessed the debilitating effects of flooding in states like Sokoto,Jigawa, Kebbi, Nassarawa, Lagos, Ogun, Cross River and Akwa Ibom. We are now victims of this fate wherever you go: North, South, East or West.” The floods were blamed on weather patterns in the country, and all over the world, which have resulted in adverse ecological imbalances. “Although flooding in communities along the Niger trough and coastal communities is not new to us, what is worrisome is the severity of these cases as we have witnessed, and the extreme weather conditions experienced globally due to climate change...We all must come together to right the wrongs we have all individually and collectively brought on our environment...The environment remains our most valued possession and legacy which we must all strive to protect. Let us all join hands in protecting our common interest." (photo)

Thursday, November 4, 2010

INDONESIA - Mount Anak Krakatau releases toxic gases. Indonesian officials on Wednesday warned residents of lethal gases following Mount Anak Krakatau's increased volcanic activity. The monitoring chief warned that if the gas is inhaled, it could lead to fatal consecuences. For those who inhale, a shortness of breath will be experienced, fainting, and even death.
Hot ash was spewed out of the volcano, reaching up to 1.7 kilometers (1 mile) into the sky and releasing the toxic gases. Mount Anak Krakatau is located on the Sunda Strait off the west coast of Java, near Krakatau Island and to the southeast of Sumatra. There are 10 different types of toxic gas contents released during the eruption.
The Geological Disaster Management and Volcanology Center has issued a ban on everyone, especially fishermen and tourists, from being in the vicinity of at least two kilometers off the volcano. Even though its normal that the volcano spews gas, frequent flows of toxic gas indicate a possible eruption at any time. The volcano usually has 90 to 100 small scale eruptions on a daily basis, but currently up to 700 minor eruptions are recorded every day. Anak Krakatau's status is at a yellow alert. Indonesia currently has 19 volcanoes on yellow alert.

**If I were to have a motto it might be:
how can I tell you what I think
until I’ve heard what I’m going to say?**
Stephen Fry


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.2 VANUATU
5.1 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS (with multiple aftershocks close to the same size)

Yesterday -
11/3/10 -
6.0 NEAR S COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.4 SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA
5.1 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
6.3 TONGA
5.1 MASBATE REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.5 MOLUCCA SEA
5.1 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION
5.0 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.3 WESTERN TURKEY
5.4 SERBIA

SERBIA - Two people were killed and around 100 were injured when a magnitude 5.4 earthquake struck central Serbia overnight. Around 100 were injured. The earthquake happened at 1:56 a.m. (just before 9 p.m. ET). The epicenter was near the city of Kraljevo, about 80 miles south of the capital, Belgrade. Many buildings were damaged, including the hospital in Kraljevo, but no patients were hurt. Parts of the city were without electricity or water. (photo)

VOLCANOES -

INDONESIA - Searing gas and molten lava poured from Indonesia's deadly Merapi volcano in an explosion three times as powerful as last week's devastating blast, chasing people from villages and emergency shelters along its slopes. After more than a week of continual eruptions, and warnings that pressure inside Mount Merapi may still be building, the province warned yesterday it was running out of money to help more than 70,000 people forced from their homes. Soldiers loaded women and crying children into trucks while rocks and debris rained from the sky. Several abandoned homes were set ablaze and the carcasses of incinerated cattle littered the mountain's scorched slopes. No new casualties were reported after yesterday's fiery explosion - which was followed just before dawn today by another booming tremor and ash cloud. "This is an EXTRAORDINARY eruption," said a state volcanologist who had earlier said energy building up behind a magma dome in the crater appeared to be easing. The blast, which dusted cars, trees and roads in towns up to 130 kilometres away in grey ash, had triple the force of the first eruption on October 26. "We have no idea what's happening," he said, as he watched the bobbing needle of a seismograph machine. "It looks like we may be entering an even worse stage now."
Thirty-eight people have died since it burst back to life just over a week ago. There have been more than a dozen strong eruptions at Merapi in the past week - including another one earlier yesterday - and thousands of volcanic tremors and ash bursts. The danger zone was widened from 10 to 15 kilometres from the peak because of the heightened threat. Yesterday's eruption, which occurred during a downpour, raised Merapi to "crisis" status.

ICELAND - 3.0 Magnitude earthquake on iceland's biggest volcano, Katla. Although this is not that unusual it does raise concerns as Iceland's other volcano, Grímsvötn is also getting active.
Water levels in the Gigjukvisl river in south Iceland, close to Grimsvotn volcano, rose by about 40 cm since Tuesday night. River flow measured 1659 cubic metresin the evening and Wednesday morning’s measurements showed that the river flow is currently more than 2000 cubic metres. “If this continues then we estimate that the flood will reach its peak this afternoon [Wednesday].”
“There was an increase in turbulence in Grimsvotn at 03:30 this morning but this has remained stable since. The turbulence has not grown in other vicinities nearby, so now it is a question of what does this mean? I am not excluding the fact that this could develop into a small volcanic eruption. However, if this does turn out to be the case, then it will be something similar to the eruption in 2004, which was not major.” The Grimsvotn volcano eruption in November 2004 lasted for one week but no glacier burst proceeded it. Volcanic ash from the volcano fell as far away as mainland Europe, however no disruptions to air traffic were caused.

TROPICAL STORMS -
-Tropical cyclone ANGGREK was 1255 nmi S of George Town, Malaysia
-Tropical storm TOMAS was 179 nmi SSE of Kingston, Jamaica

Storm alert issued for India - Authorities in southern India have put military forces on alert as a tropical storm approaches a coastal region already pummelled by several days of heavy rains that have left 22 people dead and displaced 30,000. Evacuated residents in Andhra Pradesh state are living in around 100 relief camps set up in government buildings and schools located in safer places. At least 22 people have died, many from drowning or when houses collapsed after heavy rain battered Andhra Pradesh over the last five days. Army troops and navy personnel were on standby to evacuate villagers after the weather office predicted another severe storm could strike over the next two days.
Torrential rains have caused extensive damage to crops and have washed away roads and bridges in six coastal districts over the past five days. Hundreds of people lost mud and thatch homes swept away by the floodwaters. Survivors have been shifted to relief camps. Roads and railway tracks were submerged in some parts of the region. Meanwhile, the cyclone warning centre said that a storm brewing in the Bay of Bengal was moving towards southern Andhra Pradesh and neighbouring Tamil Nadu province. The storm was likely to intensify and hit the coast in 48 hours. State administration officials worried by the latest warning have issued an alert in all the coastal districts.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

THAILAND - The death toll from Thailand's crippling floods has risen to more than 120, officials said on Thursday, after the weeks-long crisis spread south and affected tens of thousands more people, including tourists. Rising waters began to inundate the southern region late on Monday after days of heavy downpours, leaving eight dead in Songkhla province, two in Pattani and one each in Satun and Surat Thani provinces.
Thousands of soldiers have been dispatched to the area to help people stranded in their homes after flash floods swept through Hat Yai, a city of more than 150,000 people. A further three people were also killed in northern areas, where the flooding began on October 10, bringing the nationwide toll to 122. So far more than six million people have been affected, with homes submerged and farmland or cattle destroyed, in the huge natural calamity. Waters have receded in most parts of Hat Yai, a city popular with tourists from Singapore and Malaysia.
But more than 100 foreign visitors remained stranded in their hotels early on Thursday. The government has sent two naval ships to the southern region to provide medical and logistical support for the relief operation. On Wednesday marine police boats rescued about 100 Thai and foreign tourists from Koh Tao, a popular holiday island in Surat Thani, after they were stranded for half a day.

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

ICELAND - Will an Eruption Start Today? The flood in Gígja is steadily increasing. The level of the water was 3.8 meters Tuesday morning, but it was 1.8 meters around midday Monday. The bridge over Gígja is around 340 meters wide, but the river is now about 200 meters wide at the bridge. The water is flowing at about 630 cubic meters per second compared to 130 cubic meters per second on Sunday. This indicates that the river is rising faster than in the last big flood in 2004. Other rivers are not showing signs of flooding.
At Grímsvötn, the very active volcano that last erupted after the flood in 2004, earthquake activity is being closely monitored. An earthquake of 2.4 on the Richter scale was measured at 5 pm on Monday, but there has been no activity since. Scientists say that an eruption could well start after the flood. If the potential eruption is similar to the one in 2004, it was thought that it might begin Tuesday afternoon. (photos)

**There are a lot of things that are wrong with the world,
but if you watch the news, that’s not the world;
that’s a condensed version of everything negative that’s happening.
If I look past the television set, things are pretty peaceful,
and people treat each other pretty well.**
Jim Carrey


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.4 SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA
5.3 WESTERN TURKEY
5.4 SERBIA [lots of small aftershocks]

Yesterday -
11/2/10 -
5.5 VANUATU
5.2 NORTHWEST OF KURIL ISLANDS
5.8 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.

VOLCANOES -

INDONESIA'S most dangerous volcano is once again sending searing gas clouds and burning rocks down its scorched flanks. No casualties were reported in Mount Merapi's latest blasts today. Thousands of people living along Merapi's slopes have been evacuated to government-run camps well away from the base. The new eruption started at 8.11am local time. It spewed gas and rocks five kilometres down the mountain's slopes. Merapi has killed 38 people in the last week and prompted the government yesterday to order airlines to choose routes circumventing the towering dark ash on takeoff and landing. Several international flights have been cancelled. It is believed that the volcano will continue to spew out gas and rocks for weeks, possibly months, easing pressure building up inside the crater. "There's no way of knowing for sure, of course. But based on what we've seen in the last few days, we're hoping there won't be a massive explosion." More than 1300 kilometres to the west, helicopters and planes were delivering aid to the most distant Mentawai islands, where last week's tsunami destroyed hundreds of homes, schools, churches and mosques. The tsunami death toll stands at 431.
Mt. Anak Krakatau’s activity escalating - Mount Anak Krakatau continued on Sunday its frenzied expulsion of volcanic material, including hot rocks, sand and dust shrouded in toxic fumes — seven times more frequently than just a week earlier. “Usually Mt. Anak Krakatau experiences an average of 90 to 100 small scale eruptions a day. Now, the number of eruptions can reach 700 a day." Mt. Anak Krakatau is a volcano located near Krakatau Island between Sumatra and Java. “Solid material falls on the mountain slopes. However, the sand and volcanic dust can cover greater distances depending on how strong the wind blows."
Krakatau’s volcanic activity has been increasing slowly since last Monday, reaching almost 90 eruptions per day. Activity further escalated after Mt. Merapi in Central Java erupted. A day before the latest eruption, authorities raised the alert status for Mt. Anak Krakatau and advised people to stay at least several kilometers away. Although Mt. Krakatau’s rumblings increased after Mt. Merapi’s eruption, volcanologists claimed that no link existed between the active volcanoes. “No connections exist between the two because they both have their own magma pockets." The weak, local seismic tremors produced by Mt. Merapi’s eruptions lack sufficient energy to trigger volcanic eruptions elsewhere, including at Mt. Krakatau. However, there was a possibility that the eruptions of Mt. Merapi, and Mt. Krakatau were triggered by tectonic movements caused by the Mentawai earthquake. “Based on observation alone, Mt. Merapi erupted not long after the earthquake occurred." Sliding tectonic plates during the earthquake could have created new fissures that acted as conduits for magma. The plates could have shifted and pushed against the “magma kitchen” below Mt. Merapi, thus creating pressure that pushed the magma upwards.

TROPICAL STORMS -
-Cyclone ANGGREK was 1139 nmi S of George Town, Malaysia.
-Tropical storm TOMAS was 274 nmi SSE of Kingston, Jamaica.
[REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS, IT APPEARS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.]

St Lucia - At t least 14 people are now known to have died on the Caribbean island of St Lucia after Hurricane Tomas triggered landslides. The southern town of Soufriere has been worst hit and resembles "a war zone". The storm, which struck at the weekend, also battered the island of St Vincent. Bridges were destroyed, and some of the worst-hit communities in the south could only be reached by boat. "Recovery efforts are very slow. Our efforts to get help to the ravished community have been weakened as a string of fires in homes brings us to our knees." The water mains were empty and trying to get water to the fires "was an exercise in near futility" due to the mountainous landscape. Tomas, downgraded from a hurricane on Sunday evening, lashed islands in the eastern Caribbean with sustained winds of 75mph (120km/h). Tomas, now a tropical storm, is veering towards Haiti where thousands are still homeless after January's earthquake.
On Tuesday it was about 355 miles (570km) south of the Haitian capital Port-au-Prince and moving west at 12mph (19km/h) with sustained winds of 50mph (85km/h). Forecasters have warned that Tomas could strengthen again to a hurricane and that parts of Haiti are in its projected path for later in the week. "Right now they just need to stay tuned - this is the stage to be aware." Relief workers in Haiti were trying to gather emergency shelter, water and sanitation supplies. The US Navy ship Iwo Jima is steaming toward Haiti to be on hand if emergency relief is needed. (map & photo)


Tuesday, November 2, 2010

ICELAND - Grimsvoetn volcano has shown signs it could be about to burst into life, just months after an eruption from Eyjafjoell volcano caused Europe's biggest air shutdown since World War II. "The water levels have tripled in (the river) Gigja since last night." The torrents of water flooding into the Gigja, on the Vatnajoekull glacier in eastern Iceland, comes from an icy lake in the crater of the Grimsvoetn volcano. Due to increased thermal temperatures, the lake and surrounding glacier area has melted, filling the crater to a point where it has spilled over and caused a so-called river-run, which in turn could easily set off an eruption.
In 2004, a similar flood from the Grimsvoetn lake was closely followed by an eruption. Grimsvoetn is considered Iceland's most active volcano. An eruption is unlikely to occur "until the water levels in Gigja have reached a maximum. I don't know when we can expect the levels to reach their highest point, but I suspect it will be in a few days."
Over the past 48 hours, the Meteorological Institute has also registered strong seismic activity in the area, and three moderate earthquakes ranging from 2.7 to 4.0 on the Richter scale. However, Icelandic authorities were unable to say whether an eruption at Grimsvotn would hit air traffic as hard as in April when the Eyjafjoell volcano erupted. "It is near impossible to say if Grimsvotn erupts, whether it will have an effect on air traffic at all. If it is an ash eruption, then it would affect air traffic, but only if it is a strong eruption with ash clouds reaching significant heights, it will also depend on wind, so at this point it is hard to guess." A geophysicist said that any eruption from Grimsvotn would be an ash eruption. "However, the scale of the eruption will be much smaller than the Eyjafjoell eruption and I do not think it would have the same effect on air travel as Eyjafjoell did."

**Politics is not the art of the possible,
it consists in choosing between the disastrous
and the unpalatable.**
John Kenneth Galbraith


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
11/1/10 -
5.2 CHIAPAS, MEXICO
5.0 TONGA
5.3 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.

NEVADA, CALIFORNIA - A small swarm of a dozen earthquakes struck above Topaz Lake near the Nevada-California border through Saturday night and into Sunday morning. The first shock hit at 6:02 p.m. and was estimated at a magnitude 4.3 on the Richter scale. Within the hour of the first temblor, seven quakes ranging in magnitude from 1.1 to 3 were measured near the first quake's epicenter. Two more aftershocks of 1.8 and 1.7magnitude occurred at 7:18 and 8:07 p.m. Smaller aftershocks of 1 were recorded at 11:09 and 11:34 p.m. The last aftershock was a 1.9 magnitude recorded at 2:09 a.m. The initial earthquake was felt as far away as San Jose and Modesto. There were no reports of damage as a result of the earthquake, which felt like a sharp jolt in western Carson Valley.

VOLCANOES -

INDONESIA - Monitoring officials have raised alert levels at some of the 129 active volcanoes in Indonesia, with two under watch for possible eruption within two weeks and 19 showing increased activity — more than double the usual number on the watch list. Indonesia, a vast archipelago of 235 million people, is prone to earthquakes and volcanos because it sits along the Pacific "Ring of Fire," a horseshoe-shaped string of faults that lines the western and eastern Pacific. Scientists could not say for certain what was causing the increased volcanic activity, though two theorized the earth's tectonic plates could be realigning and one noted growing evidence that volcanos can affect one other.

RUSSIA - Two volcanoes that erupted on the far eastern Kamchatka Peninsula, blanketing a town with dust and spreading ash clouds across the Pacific, have mostly stopped spewing ash and flights are no longer diverted. Eurasia’s highest active volcano, the Klyuchevskaya Sopka, was pumping out insignificant amounts of dust and the Shiveluch volcano, 70 kilometers northeast, had ceased all activity. Schools in the vicinity of the volcanoes remained closed Friday because of ash buildup. The powder had coated the nearby town of Ust-Kamchatsk, reducing visibility to only a few meters and turning buildings ghostly white.

TROPICAL STORMS -
-Cyclone ANGGREK was 1050 nmi S of George Town, Malaysia

-Tropical storm TOMAS was 177 nmi NNE of Maracaibo, Venezuela [Expected to re-strengthen and potentially become a hurricane again within 3 days.] Projected path map

Hurricane Tomas is blamed for 12 deaths in St. Lucia. Since downgraded to a tropical storm, Tomas battered St. Lucia on Sunday as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 160 kph (99 mph).

Alert for fresh cyclone formation in Bay of Bengal - The Bay of Bengal is being put under watch for cyclone formation as an existing depression in the Gulf of Thailand sails into South Andaman Sea where enabling conditions are building up. The tropical depression in the lower Gulf of Thailand was centred about 160 km east of the nearest Southern Thailand coast with sustained winds speeding up to 50 km/hr. The system has been moving in a northwest direction at a speed of 15 km/hr and is expected to make landfall over the southern provinces tonight.
The India Meteorological Department joined a number of international weather models in mounting the watch for the possible cyclone, materialising close on the heels of Super Cyclone Giri that hit the Myanmar coast last week. The brewing cyclone could be racing towards the Tamil Nadu-South Coastal Andhra Pradesh coast for a landfall, say consensus predictions. But the US Navy model saw the storm progressing west from the South Andaman Sea in a linear fashion and hitting Sri Lanka. The landfall could take place by the weekend and the weakened storm is expected to head north-northwest into Western Maharashtra, India, before being guided north-northeast by possible westerly winds into West Madhya Pradesh. A weather warning issued by the IMD said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and south Karnataka during the next two days. During the 24 hours ending Monday morning, widespread rainfall has occurred over coastal Orissa and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

GUATEMALA - Over 3000 ha (7400 acres) of forest in the northern department of Peten were seriously affected by tropical storm Richard, an ecological disaster in Guatemala. Thousands of trees were brought down in at least four forest concessions by the storm, less than a week ago. Richard, downgraded from hurricane status at landfall in neighboring Belize, caused considerable damage in the east of the multiple use zone of the Maya Biosphere Reserve, where there are important timber species such as cedar and mahogany

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

GERMANY - A giant pothole opened under a residential street in Germany yesterday, taking a car with it and leaving another car hanging over the edge. Miraculously, homes on sides of the street remained standing. The cause was unclear. Germany occasionally experiences potholes when ancient mines collapse or water creates cavities in areas of karst rock.
The slump, measuring 40m by 30m, hit Schmalkalden in Germany's central hill country, 120km north of Frankfurt. A resident phoned police at about 3am after hearing a loud noise. Residents were evacuated from 23 buildings. Nobody was injured. Six houses are still evacuated and earth is continuing to crumble from the rim of the crater. Emergency workers said the hole was increasing in size hour by hour. Police were checking claims by residents who remembered there had been a World War II air-raid bunker under the street. ( Photo gallery )


Monday, November 1, 2010

**There’s a golden city that everyone wants to visit and
I’m coming down from having visited and I see people sweating
and tearing through brambles trying to get up and I want to say,
‘Don’t go there, it doesn’t exist, it’ll hurt you and it’s pointless.’
That golden city is fame, achievement, riches and all the rest of it.**
Stephen Fry


LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.5 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

Yesterday -
10/31/10 -
5.0 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.7 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.1 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
5.4 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE

VOLCANOES -

Indonesia's deadly volcano unleashed another powerful eruption Monday, spewing searing clouds of gas and ash thousands of feet into the air to the sound of a booming explosion. There were no immediate reports of new casualties.
On the other side of seismically charged country, a break in weather was helping rescuers get aid to victims of a tsunami that slammed into several remote islands, sweeping entire villages to sea. The twin disasters, which occurred almost simultaneously one week ago, have together killed nearly 500 people.
Mount Merapi is among 20 mountains now rumbling and spitting out ash in Indonesia. The latest blast sent massive clouds of ash spilling nearly two miles down the northeastern slopes. Heavy rain over the weekend increased the danger of another larger eruption because water falling into the fiery crater can create sudden vapor pressure in the lava dome.

TROPICAL STORMS -
-Cyclone ANGGREK was 933 nmi SSW of George Town, Malaysia
-Tropical storm TOMAS was 218 nmi N of Caracas, Venezuela

A cyclone warning has been issued for islands off Western Australia, where residents have been advised to get ready to shelter. The Cocos Islands, an Australian territory in the Indian Ocean have been warned that Tropical Cyclone Anggrek, currently category two, is set to intensify this morning as it heads south towards the islands. Gales were expected to develop today as the system moved closer, with the period of greatest risk beginning this evening. There was a significant risk that people on the Cocos Islands would experience very destructive wind gusts tomorrow. At the centre of the cyclone, wind gusts had been measured at 130km/h and were intensifying. A yellow alert has been issued for communities on Home and West Island.

Hurricane Tomas weakened in the Caribbean after battering Barbados and St Lucia with strong winds and heavy rains that damaged properties on the resort islands but caused no loss of life.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

NEW ZEALAND - Record breaking high - almost. A powerful high was building south east of Dunedin and settling over the country on the 29th of October. Another powerful high settled over the country a fortnight before. The central air pressure was predicted to be around 1,046 hectopascals - a smidgen above the HIGHEST AIR PRESSURE EVER RECORDED in New Zealand, in Wellington set in 1889. However, because it will remain just offshore it will be away from weather recording equipment.