He uses sun spots and solar flares to cast his predictions, and says current activity indicate cyclones would push further south, potentially hitting the Gold Coast. ''It's quite possible ... you haven't had one for a fair while now so it's definitely overdue. 'When you have high solar activity you find they move further south. 'There is a very strong case, especially from the weather events we've seen since the beginning of 2010.'' The sheer number of cyclones will lead to THE MOST INTENSE CYCLONE SEASON SINCE 1994 when he started his official predictions. ''It's the most I've ever predicted for the eastern seaboard, usually it's only two or three - or maybe up to four. 'Five is a bit more heavy duty, people should err on the side of caution.''
The Weather Channel meteorologist agreed a more active cyclone season was likely due to La Nina. ''With La Nina traditionally we get a higher frequency of cyclones. 'There's no way of saying (where they will cross), but we think there will probably be an above average number of cyclones, whether they are coastal crossings or skim the coast - they will be around.'' The last cyclone to hit the Coast was in 1984, causing wind and rain damage.
''Certainly if ... we do get a storm of that magnitude to cross near to the Gold Coast, that's a major disruption about to happen from a lot of perspectives. 'Erosion, flooding, rainfall all of that works together in that event, similar to 1974, when there was widespread flooding on the Gold Coast. 'We might be in for a test, how well we come out of the test is a bit uncertain ... they are fickle things storms. 'In a sense we're lucky we haven't had a really big one for so long, but it brings other issues that people are not familiar with the extent of damage it can cause.''
Irish Saying
LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.
Yesterday -
9/18/10 -
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.2 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
9/17/10 -
5.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS
6.3 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
5.2 POTOSI, BOLIVIA
AFGHANISTAN - A 6.5 magnitude earthquake rocked Kashmir Valley at 12.54 A.M shaking people out of their beds in terror. The quake which lasted nearly a minute, rattled houses forcing people to rush out of their homes in panic during dead of the night. There was no immediate report of any damage or injuries. The epicentre of the quake, which struck at a depth of 200 kilometres (124 miles), was reported to be in Hindukush range, 265 kilometres northeast of Kabul, in Afghanistan. Earlier on September 11 morning a 4.8 magnitude earthquake shook Kashmir and its adjoining areas. The epicenter of the earthquake was in Pir Pantsal mountain range of Himalayas of the region.
Experts warn of earthquakes in BANGLADESH - Scientists at the Dhaka University Earth Observatory have recorded 10 tremors in the last one week and warned that more earthquakes can hit the country anytime. The warning comes after a moderate quake, whose epicentre was at the India-Bangladesh border, shook parts of Bangladesh last Friday. Experts at Dhaka University's geology department and Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology said the intensity of the recent earthquakes measuring between 2.0 and 4.8 on the Richter scale signalled a major earthquake. They also fear that a major earthquake with the epicentre in and around the capital could hit the country any time, causing devastation. "As India and Burma tectonic plates are moving towards each other, Bangladesh's landmass is being squeezed by 6mm every year, which gives adds to strength accumulation within the earth-crust in the Bengal basin." Experts have also warned that disaster-prone Bangladesh, which has been facing floods and cyclones in the recent past, is not ready to tackle earthquakes.
They say most of the country's hospitals, police stations, disaster shelters and school buildings that have been set up for disaster relief are themselves not earthquake-proof.
NEW ZEALAND - Christchurch earthquakes approaching 700 in 13 days. Since September 4, Christchurch in New Zealand is being pounded by earthquakes, one after the other they are coming and some are fairly medium sized earthquakes. Those tremors, aftershocks or earthquakes are now approaching almost 700 earthquakes in just 13 days. "That is either the biggest earthquake swarm we have heard off or something else is brewing beneath New Zealand." The massive 7.1 magnitude earthquake a few days ago caused damage to many buildings as well as public buildings, historical buildings and even the old Library in Christchurch is said to be on a new fault line, or where there is no known fault line. Some scientists agree to the fact that there might be a new fault line forming.
TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES -
Southern California could be unprepared to warn against an impending tsunami in the event of an earthquake immediately off the coast. A national panel presented findings of a study on tsunami warning systems to Congress Friday, revealing some vulnerabilities in the warning system. "The main thing we want to get out is how ill-prepared we are for local tsunamis, tsunamis that are generated very close to the coas. Southern California is unprepared to deal with tsunamis that are generated very close to shore because the warning time would be only a matter of minutes, rather than the hours-long warning we had in instances such as the Chilean earthquake earlier this year. "These are rare events but extremely high impact events. Imagine the cost of evacuating 500,000 people off the beaches in Southern California or closing down the ports."
TROPICAL STORMS -
Typhoon FANAPI was 98 nmi S of Taipei, Taiwan.
Hurricane IGOR was 231 nmi S of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Tropical storm JULIA was 614 nmi E of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Tropical depression KARL was 167 nmi NE of Acapulco, Mexico.
Typhoon takes aim at Taiwan - Powerful typhoon Fanapi was poised for a direct hit on Taiwan today, sending residents scurrying for cover, farmers hurrying to harvest vulnerable crops, and rescue crews evacuating people in mountainous regions vulnerable to landslides.
Hurricane Karl has been downgraded to a tropical storm after making landfall on Mexico's southern coast. The first major storm of the Atlantic season to hit land, it pounded the south-eastern port city of Veracruz with heavy rain. It later weakened with winds of up to 70mph (112km/h). Karl has already forced Mexico's Pemex oil to halt production at 14 offshore wells and evacuate staff. Karl hit Mexico's Gulf coast at 1630 GMT as a category three hurricane with winds of up to 110mph (177km/h). It was downgraded to category two, then to category one, before becoming a tropical storm. Karl is currently moving west at a speed of about 9mph and weakened further as it moved inland overnight.
Mexico's Veracruz state has already suffered from major flooding in the recent weeks The Mexican government had issued a hurricane warning for a 186-mile stretch of coast from Veracruz northwards, but all warnings have now been discontinued. On Thursday, Karl passed over the Yucatan Peninsula, dumping heavy rain and bringing down trees and power lines.
Meanwhile, the government in Bermuda has issued a hurricane watch for Igor. The island can "expect tropical storm force winds some time around midnight Saturday and even worse conditions late Sunday".To the east Hurricane Igor has weakened slightly but remains a major storm. Igor, which is pushing sustained speeds of 105mph, is threatening to pass directly over Bermuda on Sunday, the US-based National Hurricane Center has warned, with the US East Coast also affected over the weekend.
A third simultaneous hurricane, Julia, which is towards the centre of the Atlantic Ocean, has weakened further, with sustained winds of 75mph.
(map)
Bermuda, which hasn't seen a major hurricane in some seven years, is about to get walloped by Igor, which forecasters termed large and dangerous Saturday night. The eye of the Category 2 storm may pass just to the west of the Atlantic Ocean island late today, sharply increasing the likelihood of damaging winds. Such a landfall would spare Bermuda "the worst of the storm surge, but will inflict some of the highest wind speeds ... on the island. A direct hit would be the worst-case scenario, because the island would have to endure the extremely strong winds in the eyewall, as well as a dangerously high storm surge." The hurricane is currently going through an "eyewall replacement cycle," and, during this time, accurately forecasting its track becomes more difficult.
A new eye begins to develop around the old eye of a hurricane during the replacement cycle. "Fortunately, the forecast is that Igor will not strengthen more before approaching Bermuda. It is expected to maintain Category 2 status." Conditions on the island were deteriorating late Saturday ahead of Igor's expected passover. "Igor is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches Bermuda. Igor is a very large hurricane."
The storm could also produce as much as 9 inches of rainfall over the island. Large waves generated by the storm were already pounding beaches Saturday afternoon. "A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves, especially along the southern coast." The weather agency said swells will affect the East Coast of the United States, Puerto Rico, the Leeward Islands, Hispanola and parts of the Bahamas over the weekend. "These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents."
