Wednesday, September 15, 2010

**If you want to run out in front, prepare to be tripped from behind.**
S.A. Sachs

This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
9/14/10 -


ICELAND - The Scientists’ Council of the Civil Protection Department is not ready to formally declare the end of the Eyjafjallaj√∂kull eruption. Therefore, the alert status in the area has not been lifted. According to the Department Manager of the Civil Protection Department, in light of the volcano’s history, it is impossible to determine the duration of such an event. Declaring a formal end to the eruption, thereby reversing a number of decrees regarding the sealing of areas and other precautions, would be premature. Furthermore, the drifting of ash and the mud floods have had considerable effect on the surrounding area. The council will however reassess the situation later this week.

-Tropical depression 12W was 502 nmi SE of Taipei, Taiwan.

-Category 4 Hurricane IGOR was 483 nmi NE of Bridgetown, Barbados.
-Category 2 Hurricane JULIA was 1677 nmi E of Bridgetown, Barbados.
-Tropical storm KARL was 168 nmi SSE of Cancun, Mexico and 218 nmi NE of Puerto Cortes, Honduras. [KARL EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING, very possibly at hurricane strength.]

Tropical Storm Karl has formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Karl has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and is expected to make landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula today. It should move into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later tonight or on Thursday. Mexico’s government has issued a tropical storm warning for the east coast of the peninsula – from Chetumal at the Mexico/Belize border northward to Cabo Catoche. Belize’s government has issued a tropical storm watch for the coast of northern Belize from Belize City to the Mexico/Belize border. Karl is expected to strengthen before it hits the Yucatan and weaken after landfall. (map)

Igor, the Atlantic season’s most powerful hurricane, and Hurricane Julia won’t threaten the oil-rich U.S. Gulf and may miss the country entirely, forecasters said. Igor, with winds of 150 miles (241 kilometers) per hour, and the weaker Julia behind it are both on tracks that will take them into the northern Atlantic.
“Despite all this activity, the Gulf looks to remain out of harm’s way. Bermuda certainly has to watch out for Igor, they are by no means off the hook.” Igor is a “major” Category 4 storm. The storm’s track is expected to pass just west of Bermuda this weekend, meaning its strongest winds may hit the island. Bermuda has a 10 percent chance of being struck by a hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph in about 5 days, according to Tropical Storm Risk. Igor’s hurricane force winds extend 50 miles from the center and winds of 39 mph to 74 mph reach 195 miles from the eye.
Earlier, forecasters said Igor would probably become the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic since 2007. The center’s latest forecast analysis says while there may be some fluctuations in power, “Igor is near peak intensity.” It may still strengthen because it is in an area of warm water and low wind shear. Trailing Igor is Julia. Julia is moving away from the southern Cape Verde islands off west Africa and may dump as much as 4 inches (10 centimeters) of rainfall. “These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides."

A tropical depression has formed over the Pacific Ocean south of Okinawa and is forecast to develop into a tropical storm today. Tropical Depression 12W was 694 kilometers (431 miles) south of Naha on the Japanese island of Okinawa at 9 a.m. Tokyo time. The weather system had maximum sustained winds of 56 kilometers per hour and was moving northwest at 17 kph. Winds may strengthen to 65 kph today, and 12W is forecast to become a typhoon in four days. The center’s forecast shows the storm tracking southwest of Okinawa after it reaches typhoon status.