**Getting over a painful experience is
much like crossing monkey bars.
You have to let go at some point
in order to move forward.**
LARGEST QUAKES so far today -
5.4 SOLOMON ISLANDS
Yesterday, 10/10/13 -
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.0 POTOSI, BOLIVIA
Tungurahua volcano (Ecuador) - increasing strombolian activity. Seismic and visual activity have increased since Sunday. The volcano currently produces mild to moderate strombolian activity, ejecting fresh lava bombs onto the upper slopes of the summit cone.
The seismic recordings show in increase in the number of events associated with internal fluid (magma) movements as well as emission/explosion signals. Ash fall has been reported in localities to the west and south, namely in El Manzano, Bilbao, Chacauco, Choglontus, and Mocha. Also the measured SO2 flux values changed from a minimum of 87 tons per day on October 3 to over 1000 tonnes per day on 7 and 8 October.
TROPICAL STORMS -
Current tropical storms - maps and details.
* In the Western Pacific -
- Typhoon Nari (Santi) is located approximately 255 nm east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. Arrival expected on Friday in the Philippines, then Tuesday in Vietnam.
- Tropical depression 25w has been upgraded to Tropical storm Wipha, which is located approximately 696 nm south of Iwo To, Japan. Could become a typhoon by Saturday afternoon.
* In the Northern Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone Phailin is located approximately 424 nm southward of Kolkata, India. It will continue to intensify, reaching a peak of 135 knots in the next day as favorable conditions persist.
+ VERY DANGEROUS TYPHOON PHAILIN, in the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, has put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification, going from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a formidable Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds in just twelve hours. Landfall on the northeast coast of India expected to occur between 06 - 12 UTC on Saturday, possibly as strong as Category 4.
Twenty-six of the thirty-five deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms. Satellite estimates of Phailin's strength at 8 am EDT Thursday ranged as high as 135 mph. Water temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, and the ocean heat content is very high, at a level often associated with rapid intensification. The 11 am EDT Thursday forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicts that Phailin will peak as a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds 12 hours before landfall. The India Meteorological Department is predicting that Phailin will be a borderline Category 2/Category 3 storm at landfall. The HWRF model predicted that Phailin would be a strong Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds at landfall on Saturday.
Typhoon Nari headed towards the Philippines - In the Western Pacific, Category 1 Typhoon Nari is expected to intensify into a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds and make landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines near 12 UTC Friday. Nari will then make a second landfall in Vietnam around 00 UTC on Tuesday.
Tropical storm 25W (Wipha) - Rain and wind have been hitting the island of Guam in copious amounts, due to Wipha, which in very short order has become a significant tropical storm. Guam's National Weather Service page has posted several warnings for the island and surrounding ones. Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Web site says Wipha will move north and west away from the island over the weekend, and though it's too early to tell, it could affect the Tokyo-Kanto Plain area next week, depending on which way it tracks.
+ Almost a Decade without a Major U.S. Hurricane - We are at eight years and counting without a major hurricane striking the U.S. (While Sandy was impressive, she never even made it to hurricane status). Hurricane Wilma was the last major hurricane to strike the U.S.
SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -
+ U. S. EAST COAST RAINSTORM coming - remnants of Tropical Storm Karen. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected, with the heaviest amounts closest to the coast in Delaware and Maryland. Some locations may reach moderate coastal flooding levels. At this point, indications are that the storm will not get very strong. It may be like a weak nor'easter for the area from Atlantic City to New York City.
A slow-moving coastal storm will develop and then linger near the mid-Atlantic States through the next several days. This storm is forming in part from the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen. Drenching, windswept rain occurred over the coastal parts of North and South Carolina Tuesday and continued into Wednesday. In New Jersey, when the storm approaches wind gusts inland will be generally in the 15 to 30 mile an hour range, with the higher speeds closer to the coast, where the wind gusts will reach more than 35.
Repeated rounds of minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide are likely starting on Wednesday. Some locations may reach moderate coastal flooding levels later in the week. Much to the delight of people along the Gulf Coast, Karen weakened before getting too close over the weekend to cause major problems from winds and seas. A small amount moisture from Karen managed to drift northward along the Atlantic Seaboard as a cool front approached Monday. Karen’s moisture is congregating along East Coast waters.
HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
+ LIKE A SCENE FROM THE APOCALYPSE, dark carcasses of cows and steers lie motionless in silent clusters across swaths of South Dakota. An early blizzard caught ranchers off guard this week in the state, killing as many as 20,000 head of cattle. Crews are out removing dead cattle blocking roads, where they fell over in their tracks. Herds of livestock still alive are wandering aimlessly far from home. "We have misplaced cattle everywhere. The storm blew them 10 miles or more from where they are normally pastured."
South Dakota’s civil air patrol did flyovers to take pictures of whole herds that keeled over together, dotting the gaping, snow-covered flatlands with big, black blotches. Ranchers who thought they were doing the right thing were blindsided, and they are dazed by their losses. “The smart thing to do this time of year is to have cows and calf off to pasture. Then the storm blew in. We’ve never seen anything quite like this.” They may never know the total number of livestock killed.
“It will be two weeks to a month before we have a better idea of the impact." Only 2,000 have been confirmed dead so far, but crews are out removing more dead cattle blocking roads, where they fell over in their tracks. The state has told drivers to watch out. “Motorists must be aware that livestock carcasses or stray livestock may be present on or along the roadways at any time.”
Herds of livestock still alive are wandering aimlessly far from home. “Some people were very well prepared and lost 50% of their herd. Some were not prepared and took no losses. There was no rhyme or reason to it. Some ranchers lost everything. Ranchers say they are the real victims. The storm left many of them in ruins, and now Washington is leaving them out in the cold. “With the government shutdown and no farm bill in place, we need South Dakotans to help their neighbors." id. This year’s federal farm legislation got hung up in Congress before the shutdown. There’s no money to help the ranchers.
'GLOBAL WEIRDNESS' / CLIMATE CHANGE -
“Extreme Weather Relief and Protection Fund" - A New Jersey-based nonprofit group is calling on the federal government to establish a permanent funding source to prepare for future natural catastrophes. The group, called US Strong, says in its new report that an increasing frequency of extreme weather events around the country shows the need for such funding. The group suggests imposing a levy on carbon emissions and carbon pollution as one potential way to help support a new fund.
US Strong says it has been working with thousands of New Jerseyans calling for the creation of a dedicated federal “Extreme Weather Relief and Protection Fund.” The group says this fund would support emergency response and help communities to prepare for extreme weather. A dedicated fund, like the Highway Trust Fund, will also ensure that communities get resources quickly after extreme weather disasters — rather than wait for Congress to pass disaster relief legislation.
But, the group adds, supporting this fund should not burden working families and businesses with increased property, income, sales and corporate business taxes — nor should the government rely on deficit spending. Instead, “all revenue streams should be considered including putting a financial cost on putting more carbon pollution into the atmosphere that is fueling more extreme weather.” New Jersey families, businesses and municipalities suffered a huge financial toll from Superstorm Sandy — MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUSLY REPORTED — and estimates for uncovered costs should be expected to rise by the billions, according to US Strong. The report says the cost of Superstorm Sandy has already exceeded $70 billion, and more than half of that is attributed to New Jersey, the hardest hit state. It says New Jerseyans will have to find a way to pay for an estimated $8 billion to $13 billion in expenses that will not be covered by federal or state assistance. The report also forecasts that the shortfall could rise by billions or even tens of billions of dollars.
“What lies beyond the impersonal and huge Sandy storm cost numbers is the fact that pocketbooks are being emptied, hard-earned savings have been swallowed whole, homes have been lost, small business owners’ dreams have crumbled, and new debt has been incurred. This is not some future prediction. It is now the new reality of extreme weather we all are living with. We cannot just talk about the need for emergency relief and storm preparedness. We need to fund it to protect the New Jersey shore and other communities across the country from extreme weather."
“Across the nation, we’re seeing intense storms, more frequent storms, and unfortunately greater catastrophes. There has to be a permanent funding source, so we don’t sit there and wait and say, ‘Does Congress like us this year or not?’ We have to look into how to fund this dedicated fund. We have to look at all avenues.”
HEALTH THREATS -
Discovery of the first new botulinum toxin in 40 years is coupled with withholding key data for security reasons.
Chicken salmonella outbreak - The USDA told Foster Farms it will block plant operations if the company doesn't take quick action.