Tuesday, October 8, 2013

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**If the wind will not serve, take to the oars.**
Latin Proverb

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -

Yesterday, 10/7/13 -

Alaska - The eruption of Veniaminof resumed Sunday morning and the Aviation Color Code was increased to Orange and the Volcano Alert Level to Watch. Lava effusion from the intracaldera cone has resumed. The overall level of eruptive activity is similar to that observed this summer. Seismicity remains elevated, but constant. Satellite images from earlier in the day during periods of clear weather show highly elevated surface temperatures related to the effusion of lava. No ash emissions have been observed.


* In the Western Pacific -
Typhoon Danas is located approximately 323 nm south-southwest of Sasebo, Japan.

* In the Eastern Pacific -
Tropical storm Narda is located about 1030 mi (1655 km) SW of the southern tip of Baja California. Expected to become a hurricane today.
Tropical storm summary -
The large-scale Atlantic conditions favor below-average chances of tropical storm formation for the next two weeks.

A Tropical Cyclone is expected to form in the North Indian Ocean and threaten India, where ONE OF THE LONGEST MONSOON SEASONS EVER RECORDED is finally beginning to wane. Atmospheric conditions over the North Indian Ocean are growing more conducive for the formation of tropical cyclones. The waters off the west coast of Thailand feature a large area of intense thunderstorms with a pronounced spin.
Both the GFS and European models predict that this disturbance will develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday, with the storm expected to track to the northwest and make landfall in Northeast India this weekend. This storm has the potential to intensify into a major storm capable of driving a dangerous storm surge onto the coast.

+ Typhoon Danas takes aim at Japan. In the Pacific, impressive Typhoon Danas reached Category 4 status with 145 mph winds Monday morning as it passed just north of Okinawa, becoming the third strongest tropical cyclone on Earth so far in 2013. Only Super Typhoon Usagi (160 mph winds) and Super Typhoon Utor (150 mph winds) have been stronger.
Danas has peaked in strength, and satellite loops show that wind shear has begun eating into the intense thunderstorms on the southwest portion of Danas' eyewall. Danas is expected to weaken to Category 2 strength as it recurves to the northeast and passes very close to Nagasaki, Japan around 12 UTC on Tuesday.

Japan and South Korea Brace for Typhoon Danas - Typhoon Danas rocked parts of Ryukyu Islands on Monday and now has its sights set on southern Japan and South Korea.
After dealing with around 125 mm (5 inches) of rain and tropical storm-force winds in Okinawa, Japan, from Typhoon Fitow Friday and Saturday, Danas slammed the Ryukyu Islands on Monday with damaging winds and blinding downpours. Wind gusts to 195 kph (120 mph) were felt across Yoron Island, as the eye of Danas passed directly overhead.
A destructive storm surge of 2.5-3.5 meters (8-12 feet), damaging winds over 120 kph (75 mph), and flooding rainfall of 4-8 inches are expected along the path of Danas, including the Kyushu and Chugoku regions of Japan, as well as the southern coastline of South Korea.
Danas acquired tropical characteristics Thursday night local time just north of Guam, and then strengthened into a typhoon Saturday night. The storm is smaller in size as compared with other typhoons in the West Pacific this year; however, areas affected by the typhoon will have to contend with potentially life-threatening flooding and damaging winds.
Danas will move in a northwesterly direction as it departs the Ryukyu Islands Monday night before then taking a turn toward the north and eventually northeast Tuesday into Wednesday. This track will take the center of Danas very close to western Kyushu Tuesday into Tuesday night. During this time the center is expected to remain over water as it passes between Japan and South Korea.
Danas will begin to weaken Tuesday into Wednesday as it is pulled north and northeastward by a frontal boundary. This frontal boundary will cause Danas to transition into an extra-tropical system over the Sea of Japan before making a landfall in northern Japan on Wednesday. Danas will still produce locally damaging winds along with the threat for flooding rainfall and mudslides as it moves across northern Honshu Wednesday into Wednesday night.
While Tokyo will dodge the worst of Danas, wind gusts on Wednesday could still top out between 50-65 kph (30-40 mph). Danas will then race east-northeastward away from Japan on Thursday, allowing the country to dry out and recover from any adverse impacts. Another cold front will then bring the threat for a soaking rainfall to much of Japan from later Friday into Saturday.