Sunday, June 22, 2014

Global Disaster Watch - daily natural disaster reports.

**Most powerful is he who has himself in his own power.**

LARGEST QUAKES so far today -

Yesterday, 6/21/14 -

6/20/14 -

Finding Definitive Answers to North Texas Quakes Could Take Years, but Clues Appear. What is behind the tremors in North Texas? Starting late last fall, a swarm of quakes struck the communities of Reno and Azle outside of Fort Worth.
It's hardly the first community in the Lone Star State to have to deal with damaged foundations, cracked windows and rude awakenings from quakes: there have been nine other scientifically-researched quake swarms in Texas, all of them in areas of oil and gas drilling activity.

Nevada - 5 Quakes Hit Lake Tahoe Area. In less than 30 minutes, the Lake Tahoe area had 5 earthquakes ranging in magnitude from 0.8 to 2.8.

Yellow Alert declared for Tungurahua Volcano in Ecuador - The National Secretariat for Risk Management of Ecuador on Thursday decided to change from orange to yellow the alert in Tungurahua Volcano, 80 km south of Quito, given the decline in activity.
The volcanic activity at Tungurahua has remained low in the recent days, so the authorities decided to change the level of the alert. In the first months of the year, the volcano showed an increased activity with columns of ash and gases that rose reaching four kilometers above the crater, causing the orange alert to be declared in the affected areas.
Although the alert level was changed, the Secretariat said that provintial and cantonal Emergency Operations Committees should keep on alert in order to react to any situation to protect the citizens. Tungurahua volcano erupted in 1999 and since then high activity periods with others of relative calm have been interspersed

Enigma of Changbaishan volcano - Researchers conducted a temporal deployment of over 120 broadband seismometers in northeast China over a period of two year from September, 2009 to August, 2011. This seismic array enabled visualization of the three-dimensional structure of the deep mantle of the earth in detail, at far better resolution than ever before.
A research group discovered a large a gap in the stagnant slab (a stagnating section of the subducted Pacific plate) in the mantle transition zone beneath NE China. Changbaishan volcano at the border between China and North Korea, is located further away from the subduction zone of the plate boundary where volcanoes are usually formed. Why the volcano was formed in such place was unknown until now.
Previous tomographic models indicated the presence of a horizontally laying slab, and this time, a gap of the stagnant slab in the mantle transition zone beneath Changbaishan volcano was found. This finding sheds new light on the origin of the enigmatic Changbaishan volcano.

Philippines - Volcanologists and disaster officials are monitoring Mayon, which recently showed signs of abnormality. PHIVOLCS said Alert Level 1 remains in effect, and warned the public against entering the 6-km permanent danger zone.

Current tropical storms - maps and details.

No current tropical storms.

Hurricane Forecast for the Remainder of June - Vertical wind shear is predicted to be very high over most of the tropical Atlantic the remainder of June, reducing the odds of tropical storm formation.
With the active thunderstorm area of the MJO predicted to remain over the Pacific Ocean the rest of June, this will favor dry, sinking air over the Atlantic, further discouraging tropical storms from forming.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which are close to average over the Caribbean (an anomaly of +0.1°F) and cooler than average over the Gulf of Mexico (an anomaly of -0.2°F) will do no favors for any potential June tropical storms that try to form.
If development does occur in June, the most likely location would be off the east coast of Florida, between the Bahamas and Bermuda, where SSTs are slightly above average and wind shear will be lower. Storms that form in this region are typically only a threat to Bermuda.
Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, six of the nineteen years (32%) did not have a named storm develop in June. The most recent year without a June named storm developing was the El NiƱo year of 2009.
The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. There were two June named storms in 2013, Andrea and Barry.


Apocalypse in Bulgaria - Hurricane-like winds after the floods. After the flood that drowned half Bulgaria, today is going to be dominated by hurricane-like winds, weathermen warned yesterday.
In the past few days, RECORD AMOUNTS OF RAIN poured over the northeastern part of the country. With an average rainfall of 60-90 liters per month, the over 100 liters per square meter that flooded some parts of Bulgaria within just 24 hours, is UNPRECEDENTED.
For the last two or three days rainfall reached 140 to 160 liters per square meter, which is two to three times the monthly norm. Most of it fell on Varna (159 liters per square meter) where it killed at least 11, while the victims in Dobrich (111 liters per square meter) are so far three.
Parallel with the water element, dangerously strong winds are threatening northeastern Bulgaria from the Black Sea. Yesterday at 12 pm wind speed reached 36 meters per second or over 120 km / h at Kaliakra. In Varna and Shabla the wind blew with a speed of 18-20 meters per second.
Following the tides, the authorities are also expecting the occurance of epidemics. To limit their spread, experts warned to drink bottled water, and to consult a doctor in any case of gastro-intestinal complaints.

Torrential Rain Kills 14 People In China - A two-story school building went down in a mudslide prompted by heavy rains on Friday morning, which caused the death of a 57-year-old primary school teacher. His eight year old grandson also died during the incident in Fuzhou, Jiangxi province.
The local civil affairs bureau reported that two others are still missing. Torrential rains affected about 55 million people in Shangrao. About 100 buildings and more than 300 hectares of crops were damaged. Violent rainstorms have been pounding China’s central and southern regions. The heavy downpour has already caused flight suspension, widespread flooding and claimed more than a dozen lives.
On Friday morning, the National Meteorological Center raised its rain signal level to yellow alert. Heavy downpours have been reported to continue in the provinces of Fujian, Zhejiang, Hunan, Anhui, Guangdong and Jiangxi. Torrential rains are expected to hit the autonomous region of Guangxi Zhuang before Monday.
The civil affairs bureau in Hunan reported that mudslides and flooding have killed three people in the province. There are still two others missing while 25,000 people were already evacuated on Friday. The bureau also reported 800 destroyed houses. Economic losses have already been estimated to reach about US $52.3 million.
Public transportation in Guangdong and Hunan were also delayed or suspended on Thursday because of mudslides. A China Eastern Airlines carrier has been reported to miss the runway during landing in Shanxi. Torrential rains and poor visibility have been identified as culprits for planes to miss landings. No deaths or injuries have been reported.
Authorities warned residents of eight provinces of heavy rains. Residents were also warned about possible mudslides. The current downpour has been expected to be the heaviest this year. Public safety will be threatened due to heavy rainstorms.
The heavy rainfall in different Chinese provinces has already killed 43 people and affected more than 4 million others in Guizhou, Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian since March 30. Economic losses have already reached more than CNY12 billion (US$1.9 billion).

U. S. Midwest, Plains - Hundreds of flights were canceled or delayed across the nation by heavy rain early Friday.

Nebraska - Heavy rain floods some streets; 1 man killed. Nearly 7 inches of rain fell Friday night and early Saturday on parts of Omaha, causing some flooding of low-lying streets.

Minnesota - Storms damage crops but may ease drought. Flooding rains and hail have caused millions of dollars of damage to homes, roads and crops in southwest Minnesota.
Heavy Rain Causes Mudslide Near Minnesota Hospital - A section of a bluff as long as a football field gave way Thursday night near the University of Minnesota Medical Center. More rain could further erode the slide site, which sits just 10 feet from the hospital's steam plant.


Surprise: Drought may have helped Marin's young coho - Lack of rain kept them in watershed where survival chance is greater. A RECORD NUMBER of Marin's young coho salmon are making their way out to sea and it may be the winter drought that helped boost the numbers, according to biologists.
The Marin Municipal Water District has been tracking the migration of the endangered species from the county's creeks out to the ocean since 2006. In that time the most coho counted by biologists was 11,000 in 2012. Given the dry conditions in the early part of the year it wasn't thought the number of young coho would approach that number.
But counts done in the spring showed almost 20,000 of the coho smolts in Lagunitas and Olema creeks, shattering the previous recorded high. It raises the hope that the carry capacity for coho in the Lagunitas watershed is greater than previously thought and could bode well for the recovery of the imperiled species.
"It was a huge surprise, we were expecting more like a third of what we saw. It was the dry winter and the timing of the rain that may have made the difference." Because there was little rain in the county until February, the fish — born last year — were in a holding pattern and did not move downstream. Typically as soon as rain begins, the young coho will begin making their way out to the ocean, gathering en masse in lower Lagunitas Creek.
But the habitat and lack of shelter in the lower creek can't support very many young salmon and they die off before they can get to sea. But because there was little rain in the winter, the young coho spent the winter spread throughout the watershed, which apparently approved survival.
While the Lagunitas fish were much more plentiful this year, they were also much smaller than usual, which could limit their chances of survival in the ocean. "We are hoping they grew more on the way out in the Giacomini Wetlands or in Tomales Bay." In Olema Creek the number of young coho was also high, matching a previous high set in 2009. Unlike the Lagunitas coho, the ones in Olema were normal size.
The subject fish will return to Marin in the fall of 2015 as adults, then spawn and die. There is no guarantee that the large out-migration will produce an abundance of fish coming back. On average, roughly 8 percent survive. "A lot of it depends on ocean conditions, which we have no control over." The young coho feed on krill — small shrimp-like crustaceans — to fatten up. But krill production in the open ocean can vary wildly from season to season.
But that there are more coho, which have been said to be in an "extinction vortex" is a positive, biologists said. It also suggests that more woody debris for shelter and side channels for fish to spread out would help the coho. "It's good news beyond what happens to this class of fish. This shows the watershed can produce more fish than it's been given credit for and it's a hopeful sign for population recovery."

U.S. droughts can be explained by ocean forcing - Sea surface temperature can nudge the atmosphere into conditions, subsequently exacerbated or moderated by atmospheric variability, that can lead to drought. The authors find that up to 40 percent of the variability of annual mean precipitation in the North American south, southwest, and southern Great Plains can be explained by ocean forcing.
Oceanic forcing was important in causing multiyear droughts in the 1950s and at the turn of the twenty-first century, although a similar ocean configuration in the 1970s was not associated with drought owing to an overwhelming influence of internal atmospheric variability.
Up to half of the soil moisture deficits during severe droughts in the southeast United States in 2000, Texas in 2011, and the central Great Plains in 2012 were related to SST forcing, although SST forcing was an insignificant factor for northern Great Plains drought in 1988. During the early twenty-first century, natural decadal swings in tropical Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs have contributed to a dry regime for the United States.
Long-term changes caused by increasing trace gas concentrations are now contributing to a modest signal of soil moisture depletion, mainly over the U.S. Southwest, thereby prolonging the duration and severity of naturally occurring droughts.

California steaming - State's hot year worsens drought. So far, California is enduring its HOTTEST YEAR ON RECORD, contributing to the state's WORST LEVEL OF DROUGHT IN THE PAST 40 YEARS.
Epic Drought in California Unlikely to Ease Soon - California will remain in the stranglehold of drought at least until September.

U. S. Drought summary - Very dry conditions are expected to continue all summer on the west coast, the southwest, and in Texas.


Ebola called 'out of control' in West Africa - The DEADLIEST-EVER OUTBREAK of the Ebola virus has surged in West Africa after slowing briefly, and the pandemic is now "out of control," according to Doctors Without Borders.

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