So far, the results have been lower temperatures: for example, in Central Russia, they are a couple of degrees below the norm. “Although the forecast for the next month is only 70 percent accurate, I find the cold winter scenario quite likely. We will be able to judge with more certainty come November. As for last summer's heat, the statistical models that meteorologists use to draw up long-term forecasts aren't able to predict an anomaly like that.” In order to meet the harsh winter head on, Moscow authorities are drawing up measures to help Muscovites survive the extreme cold. Most of all, the government is concerned with homeless people who risk freezing to death if the forecast of the meteorologists come true. Social services and police are being ordered to take the situation under control even if they have to force the homeless to take help.
LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.
5.0 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 LAKE RUDOLF REGION, KENYA-SUDAN
5.0 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.7 BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.2 COQUIMBO, CHILE
5.7 POTOSI, BOLIVIA
5.0 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
COLUMBIA, INDONESIA - Galeras in Colombia appeared to be increasing its activity this week. Seismicity, gas emissions and a renewed thermal anomaly at the volcano all point towards a potential eruption at Galeras*. The Alert Status at the volcanoremains at Yellow (below Orange and Red). Galeras has has two periods this year (August and February) of increased eruptive activity.
Meanwhile, over in Indonesia, it appears that Sinabung and Merapi are both steaming away. There isn't much in the way of details of their current activity, but there is still news about the refugees from the initial evacuation of the area near Sinabung. The volcano might have seemed to settled down and left the news, but many refugees have not been allowed to return home as the volcano continues to be restless - leading to corruption in the camps. The threat of Merapi producing a significant eruption seems to be up as well. Volunteers are already getting prepared for an eruption of the volcano and evacuation centers are being set up for potential refugees, which would be its first since 2007. Merapi has shown increased seismicity, continued inflation and repeated plumes from the summit crater. This week, the Volcanological Survey of Indonesia placed Merapi on a level III alert (of V) and activity near the volcano has been banned - meaning over 39,000 people will need to be evacuated. Merapi produced an eruption in 1930 that killed over 1,300 people.
Mt. Merapi may erupt in a more explosive way than its previous eruptions, head of the Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation Center warns. “Merapi tends to form a lava dome before it erupts, but our data shows there was an explosive eruption without prior formation of a dome." Deviation of the eruption pattern took place in 1930 and 1931, which affected areas in a radius of over 15 kilometers from the peak. “It caused an ash rain that reached as far as Malang and Madura Island in East Java." The center increased on Friday the volcano’s alert status to the second highest level following its increasing volcanic activities. " Merapi has never broken its promise. Eruption, whether explosive or not, will cap its volcanic activities.”
COLUMBIA - Gas Explosion from Colombia Mud Volcano Sparks Panic. A burst of flammable gas from a mud volcano late Monday in northwestern Colombia destroyed a small area of nearby crops and killed a few farm animals while sending nearby residents rushing for safety. Several people sustained minor injuries near the town of Arboletes during the brief panic. "Just after 8:30 in the evening, we saw a high flame that lit the sky. When we went to check, we realized that there was an eruption of mud." The blast came from an “old volcano” that has produced several eruptions, including one four years ago that was very strong. Monday’s explosion was THE WORST IN MEMORY. That fiery blast prompted officials to move 14 nearby homes to a safer distance from the natural geologic feature. Officials credit that move with the lack of any fatalities from Monday’s explosive venting. An eruption three years ago spewed only mud. Mud volcanos are different from their igneous counterparts in that they are created by the expulsion of liquids and gasses, rather than lava. A slurry of mud and gas is a common product of a mud volcano eruption, sometimes including fiery bursts of methane and other gases. (photo)
HAWAII - Kilauea volcano eruption health impact continues after two years. Scientists are still working to alleviate effects of noxious gases released from the eruption in Hawaii.
TROPICAL STORMS -
-Tropical depression 16W was 609 nmi ENE of Cebu City, Philippines
-Tropical depression 17W was 802 nmi NE of Agana, Guam
-Tropical storm MEGI was 213 nmi ENE of Hong Kong
-Tropical storm RICHARD was 80 nmi NW of Puerto Lempira, Honduras
Tropical storm Richard was strengthening Saturday as it approached Honduras. Richard was forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday. The centre of the storm was expected to pass near the northeastern coast of Honduras late Saturday and could approach the coasts of Belize and southeastern Mexico early Sunday. A hurricane warning was in effect for Honduras and Belize. The NHC said tropical storm conditions were possible for the Caribbean coast of Guatemala. Richard formed last weekend over the Caribbean and became a tropical storm late Wednesday. In October 1998, Hurricane Mitch stayed over the Gulf of Honduras for five days, causing heavy rain that claimed thousands of lives and caused great damage in Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Costa Rica.
Deadly typhoon Megi hits China - ONE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS TO HIT THE REGION IN YEARS. Torrential rain and gale-force winds lashed southern China on Saturday as Typhoon Megi made landfall after killing at least 48 people as it roared through the Philippines and battered Taiwan. State television broadcast images of strong winds bending trees double in the southeastern province of Fujian, where billboards had toppled down and large waves whipped the coast. Roads in the city of Zhangzhou, which lies in the path of the storm, were flooded by torrential rain.
China's national meteorological centre confirmed that Megi had reached the coast and warned people not to venture out. As it edged into China, Megi was downgraded to a strong tropical storm and weather authorities said it would continue to weaken as it made its way north. But they warned people in Fujian and neighbouring Zhejiang province to be aware of the danger of floods and mudslides. Provincial flood control authorities said more people would have to be evacuated as the storm made its way into China.
Typhoon Megi triggers deadly Taiwan landslides - Multiple landslides hit a coastal highway in Taiwan, stranding cars and buses. A tourist bus was feared buried and three people were killed in multiple landslides as Typhoon Megi brought torrential rain to Taiwan. A torrent of mud struck a Buddhist temple in Suao, killing three people and leaving six more missing. The landslides stranded 400 drivers; half have now been taken to safety. In Taiwan, Megi brought 45 inches (114 cm) of rain to Ilan county in the northeast over a 48-hour period.
Typhoon Megi caused havoc in the Philippines, killing at least 26 people and causing extensive damage to houses in some regions. Vehicles were swept off roads and people were stranded as the storm hit. (photos)
Tropical Depression “Katring" entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday and may hit northern Luzon by Tuesday. 'Katring' could gain strength as it moves closer to land. Although forecasters say it is not expected to make landfall, it can bring rains to parts of Luzon and Visayas. It is bearing winds of 55 kilometers per hour near the center and moving west southwest at a speed of 15 kilometers per hour.
There is a chance for Katrina to weaken when it meets the northwest monsoon. If it makes landfall, it is likely to hit the provinces of Cagayan, Isabela and Aurora, the same areas ravaged by typhoon Juan (international codename: Megi). Meanwhile, rains will prevail over most parts of the country as 'Juan' continues to interact with the southwest monsoon. More rains are expected on Tuesday as 'Katring' moves closer to Luzon.
Category 4 Cyclone GIGI - At least one person has been killed and thousands affected after a powerful cyclone made landfall on the western coast of Myanmar Friday morning.
HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -
ARGENTINA - At least six people have been killed and more than 116 injured after a massive tornado struck down in north of Argentina, destroying many residential areas. The tornado ripped through the town of Pozo del Tigre in the northern Argentine province of Formosa.
At least ten people are reported to have been in critical condition as rescue workers search the area for more victims. There are conflicting reports of the number of people feared missing. Officials are scrambling to spring the ravaged city back to life as they assess the immensity of the damage caused by the tornado.
HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
RUSSIA - Cyclone with snowstorms, severe frosts approaches Magadan Region. Cold with snowstorms will come to the Magadan Region in the next few days. The Russian Emergencies Ministry's Magadan regional department issued a warning on Saturday about the extremely active cyclone approaching the region from the south of the Far East.
Very heavy precipitations, 40-mm and more, and snowstorms with wet snow sticking to wire and trees and winds of up to 30 metres a second will hit the region on October 26 and 27. There will be a storm with four-six-metre waves and poor visibility in the Okhotsk and Bering seas and the Pacific. Rescuers warn about possible breakdowns and damage of ships. Heads of municipalities, executives, ship owners and port workers are informed about possible emergencies in connection with the cyclone and the cold weather. The temperature in Magadan was about one degree below zero on Saturday. It will fall to 16 degrees Centigrade below zero on the night on October 27, and it will be a little higher in the daytime -- nine to ten degrees below zero.
EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE -
BRAZIL - Severe drought afflicts Brazilian Amazon. Some rivers are at their LOWEST LEVEL IN DECADES. The Brazilian government has announced $13.5m (£8.6m) in emergency aid for Amazon regions hit by the WORST DROUGHT IN DECADES.
The money will fund water pumping and purification, as well as food deliveries to towns cut off by the drop in river levels. The River Amazon at Manaus has fallen to its lowest level since 1963. Scientists say the region is facing its worst drought since that year. In Amazonas state 27 municipalities have declared a state of emergency because of the dry spell. Several tributaries of the Amazon have almost completely dried up, paralysing river transport and the fishing industry. The rainy season in the region usually begins in November. The Peruvian Amazon, 2,000km (1,240 miles) upstream has also been affected.
Environmental groups say severe droughts are likely to become more frequent in the Amazon as a result of global warming, putting further strain on the rainforest. The Amazon is the world's second-longest river, after the Nile, but discharges far more water from its mouth and drains more territory.
SPACE WEATHER -
NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of severe geomagnetic storms around the poles on Oct. 25th. The forecast is prompted by a possible double whammy: both a solar wind stream and a CME could hit Earth's magnetic field on that date.
HEALTH THREATS -
New high-dose flu shot - There's a new flu shot in town - one that's four times as strong and targeted at senior citizens. The reason? Scientists believe that a high-dose flu vaccine will jump-start senior citizens' immune response and provide them better protection from the virus. Scientists long have known that, as the body ages, the immune system doesn't respond as vigorously to the typical vaccination. By quadrupling the number of antigens, doctors hope that the new shot's immune boost will result in fewer deaths and serious cases of flu among the elderly.