Wednesday, October 6, 2010

**Could America declare war on Iceland for harboring
"weapons of ash eruption?**

This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
10/5/10 -

NEW ZEALAND - Aftershocks adding to main quake damage. Exactly four weeks after a 7.1 magnitude quake caused widespread damage - and just as residents were starting to breathe a little easier - Canterbury was hit on Monday night by two frightening aftershocks within eight minutes. One was recorded at magnitude 5.
A West Melton winemakergot through the main quake with little damage other than a few smashed bottles of wine. But when the aftershocks hit on Monday - centred not far from his property - it was a different story. A concrete outer wall of his home partially collapsed inwards, cracks opened up in a stone pillar inside his home, dropping chips on to the floor, and a large storage tank in his nearby winery fell down on to a grape press with a "crash, bang"...One or two of my neighbours thought it was only just a notch less than what we had experienced before [in the main quake]." The September 4 main quake caused at least $4 billion of damage to homes, businesses and infrastructure and has led to 86,000 claims to the Earthquake Commission. About 70,000 of these have come from Christchurch.


COLUMBIA - For the first time since Nevado del Ruiz erupted in 1985 and killed 25 000 people, it has become active again. Five o'clock Sunday morning earthquakes was recorded deep inside the crater. There have also been reports of sulphur odour in the air and a white gas column of about 700 meters high. The volcano has been under a yellow alert for the past several years and the experts have called for calm until they have determined if the alert is to be changed. Nevado del Ruiz is covered by an ice cap. (map)

Tropical depression 14W was 248 nmi E of Hanoi, Vietnam

Tropical Depression 14W (Northwest Pacific Ocean) - The AIRS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite revealed a concentrated area of thunderstorms and strong convection around TD14W's center (directly over Hainan Island, China) in the eastern quadrant of the storm. Cloud top temperatures were as cold as -60 Fahrenheit. Convection in the east is a result of westerly wind shear blowing the convection and thunderstorms away from the storm's center. Infrared imagery also indicated that those storms are weakening, because the cloud tops are now warming from previous imagery. Very cold thunderstorm cloud tops (colder than -60 Fahrenheit) indicate strong thunderstorms, very high into the troposphere, that likely have heavy rain associated with them. When AIRS detects that cloud top temperatures have warmed, it means the heights of the thunderstorms has dropped, meaning there's not as much power or uplift in the convection. When a storm doesn't stack up, and when part of the storm is displaced from the rest of it, it loses its organization and punch. That's what wind shear does, and is doing to TD14W and that wind shear is blowing at about 28 mph. Its winds were creating 9-foot high seas. It is expected to make a turn to the north-northeast, make a brief landfall in the mainland of southern China. Once there, it is forecast to move east, then east-southeast, making a half-circle and head toward the eastern end of Hainan Island and dissipate. The northwestern Pacific Ocean is just as active as the Atlantic Ocean this hurricane season.

An area of low pressure about 150 miles north of Puerto Rico became better defined on Tuesday and could become a tropical depression over the next 24 hours or so. The disturbance was slowly drifting to the northwest. Forecasters said it could also become a subtropical depression. Nearly all of the computer models forecast the disturbance to strengthen into Otto soon, as water temperatures are still over 80 degrees along its track. An upper-level low sitting to its west has been helping to add some dry air and wind shear into the mix, so rapid development has not been the case thus far. Westerly winds are forecast to continue to spill off of the eastern U.S., keeping the disturbance out to sea, but heavy rain and flooding have already been affecting the Leeward and Virgin Islands. An additional 3 to 6 inches of rain is likely across Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic before the storm moves away Friday.


VIETNAM - The death toll from floods that devastated central Vietnam over recent days has reached at least 26. In Ha Tinh alone, the heavy rains and rising waters have inundated at least 8,400 hectares of crops while damaging nearly 27,000 houses. Hundreds of military personnel have been mobilised to help evacuate residents threatened by the floodwaters. Several trains between Hanoi and the southern economic hub of Ho Chi Minh City have been interrupted as rail tracks are under water. Key roads were also damaged. Thousands of cars and trucks were stuck on the main national Highway 1 which has been damaged. Vietnam regularly suffers from tropical storms and flooding at this time of year.

ITALY - Three people have been found dead following heavy flooding in Prato in Tuscany. As much as 30 cm of rain fell in two hours causing widespread havoc. It is believed the victims are Chinese immigrant workers who were found submerged in their car. Floods are also being reported in the Liguria region where many rivers have burst their banks. Genoa airport was closed as result of the extreme weather. Downpours were expected to continue for at least the next 24 hours with forecasters predicting than the rains will ease by today.

INDONESIA - Extreme weather conditions, which might last until February, have prompted the government to heighten anticipation measures in several sectors as well as in regions across the archipelago. On Monday, ministers gathered in Jakarta for a coordinating meeting to anticipate extreme weather and climate. Extreme weather includes tornadoes, high waves and more frequent heavy rains that lead to more flood. “More specific data is needed, the data from each regency namely. For instance, when will the rain in regency A begin." The information will help to take adaptive measures, such as the right time to plant, because extreme weather until February might lead to food vulnerability. “Anticipative actions are also needed in terms of adaptation, especially in the transportation sector,” with warnings about possible floods and high waves in several regions. The government will gather governors and regency heads this month to inform the latter of specific conditions that might occur in their regions. Almost all regions in the country are prone to the predicted extreme weather. “The forms of the extreme weather might be, for example, early wet seasons and more flooded areas.”
“Global warming will eventually influence the expansion of the air above us. Thus the space for clouds and winds to form gets bigger. Therefore, rain will be more frequent, change of wind will be faster, and the circulation becomes larger due to vertical heating." According to data, the dry seasons between 2001 and 2010 were longer and occurred earlier compared to those between 1971 to 2000, thus the change has already occurred and adaptation is needed. Several areas, such as South Jakarta and the western part of East Java, might start their wet seasons as early as September, while other areas, such as Pasuruan in East Java, might enter the season in December. Waves as high as 3 to 5 meters might occur in several waters. Several areas in Sulawesi are predicted to have a high risk of flooding while areas in East Kalimantan have a medium flooding risk.