Friday, September 28, 2012

**You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.**
Wayne Gretzky

Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
9/27/12 -

Spike in heart failures follows Japan's 2011 quake - Following the massive earthquake and tsunami of March, 2011, which devastated parts of eastern Japan, the number of heart failure cases spiked in Miyagi Prefecture and remained elevated for six weeks.

Volcano Webcams

Columbia - Sotará volcano. From September 19-25 there were a total of 36 seismic events associated with fracturing of rock, of which 29 were characterized by low energy level. The remaining, higher energy level, were located mainly in an area between 1 and 2 km north of the volcano, at depths between 1 and 6 km and with local magnitudes around 0.1 degrees on the Richter scale. The network of electronic inclinometers for monitoring deformation showed stable behavior. Monitoring of surface activity at the volcano was done using the webcam installed at Cerro Crespo. When weather conditions allowed, it was possible to capture images of the volcano, in which no morphological changes were evident.

Number of Erupting Indonesian Volcanoes Rises to Five - Five active volcanoes in Indonesia are rumbling due to what the country’s volcano and disaster agency says is increased geophysical activity linked to recent earthquakes in the nearby Philippines. Mounts Soputan, Lokon and Karangetang are active in North Sulawesi province, while Mount Gamalama is showing signs of unrest on Ternate Island and Mount Marapi rumbles on Sumatra. All five volcanoes produced explosions within a week’s time that sent ash plumes soaring above the summits. The overnight blast from Mount Soputan was heard by residents nearly 30 miles away. So far, no nearby residents have been threatened by the blasts, and no evacuation orders have been issued. (photo)

China - Scientists keep a wary eye on hazardous Chinese volcano. Changbaishan, site of one of the largest volcanic events in 2,000 years, is acting up again. very hazardous volcano at the border of China and North Korea is growing more active, and might erupt in the next few decades, researchers studying the area say.
About 1,100 years ago, the Changbaishan volcano in northeastern China erupted, shooting superheated flows of ash and gas up to 30 miles (50 kilometers) away and blasting a 3-mile-wide (5 km) chunk off the tip of the volcano. The explosion, known as the Millennium eruption because it occurred close to the turn of the first millennium, was one of the largest volcanic events in the last 2,000 years.
Since the Millennium eruption, Changbaishan has seen three smaller eruptions, the most recent of which took place in 1903. Starting in 1999, driven by signs of resumed activity, scientists established the Changbaishan Volcano Observatory. Now, data collected over the past 12 years suggest that changes in seismic activity, ground deformation and gas emissions all spiked during a brief period of heightened activity from 2002 to 2006. This suggests the magma chamber beneath Changbaishan has awakened, researchers studying the volcano say.
The researchers saw the number of earthquakes increase dramatically during this burst of activity. From 1999 to 2002, and from 2006 to 2011, researchers detected seven earthquakes per month. However, from 2002 to 2006, this rate increased to 72 earthquakes per month, peaking in November 2003, which saw 243 events. Most of these quakes are tied to a region 3 miles beneath the volcanic crater that has risen slowly over the years, which suggests magma is creeping upward.
Gas emissions from hot springs near the volcano show rises in carbon dioxide, hydrogen, helium and nitrogen gases. The researchers say this could be related to outgassing from magma. The ground also expanded briefly and rapidly during the 2002-2006 period.
Although Changbaishan does not seem in danger of imminent eruption, the researchers say this unrest suggests an explosion could be expected in the next couple of decades. Changbaishan is at the most risk of eruption of the dozen or so volcanoes in mainland China, and potentially could have the most catastrophic effects of all of them. The researchers will focus on analyzing what hazardous effects an explosive outburst on the scale of the Millennium eruption might have in the future. "We need to upgrade our current monitoring system in order to be able to meet the need for the early warning system for Changbaishan." (photo)

In the Atlantic - - Tropical storm Nadine was located about 740 mi [1190 km] SSW of the Azores. No threat to land.

In the East Pacific -
- Post Tropical storm Miriam was located about 440 mi [705 km] W of the southern tip of Baja California. Swells generated by Miriam should begin to subside today, especially along the western coast of the southern and central Baja Peninsula. Swells will likely continue to impact the southern tip of Baja California due to another area of low pressure near the West Coast of Mainland Mexico.

In the Western Pacific -
- Typhoon Jelawat was located approximately 300 nm southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan. Expected to make landfall in Honshu, Japan.
- Tropical storm Ewiniar - was located approximately 270 nm south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan. No threat to land.


After fast start to year, number of tornadoes in U.S. in 2012 drops to 400 below average - While the start of 2012 saw a number of deadly tornado outbreaks that seemed to portend a disastrous year to come, the number of tornadoes recorded since then has fallen to RECORD LOW LEVELSs. Data from the Storm Prediction Center shows the tornado count for the year is 400 twisters below average.
Mother Nature wasted no time unleashing her fury early in the year with a deadly tornado outbreak on January 22nd. As many as 39 tornadoes were reported that day, most in Alabama. Two people were killed and more than 100 injured. February closed out with two days of extraordinary severe weather in the nation’s heartland. Twisters struck 10 different states resulting in 39 fatalities.
The start of April saw tornadoes strike the Dallas – Fort Worth Metroplex followed by a major outbreak in the middle of the month. Kansas and Oklahoma bore the brunt of massive storms that dropped over 100 tornadoes and killed five. Since mid-spring however tornadoes have become relatively rare in the U.S.
Preliminary numbers show June with a count of around 100 twisters, close to the record low number for the month of 94. On average the month receives 270. July continued the tornado drought with only 24 preliminary tornado reports. This was far below the average of 150 for July and well below the QUIETEST JULY ON RECORD (42 in 1960). August recorded only 52 tornadoes and thus far September has seen 26.
To date the SPC puts the preliminary count of tornadoes in 2012 at 757. The actual count will be lower once duplicate reports are filtered out following analysis. This is as much as 400 fewer tornadoes to date than the long term average. Thus far there have been 68 fatalities attributed to twisters in 2012. Both of those numbers stand in stark contrast to last year’s extraordinary tornado season when 1,691 twisters were recorded and 553 people were killed.


Farmers' Almanac predicts a cold and snowy winter for U.S. Great Lakes, Northeast - After the contiguous United States recorded its fourth warmest winter and as many as 24 states recording below average precipitation, followed by a summer which was the third warmest on record, the Farmers' Almanac is predicting a return to winter for some, but not all this year. The latest and newly released edition of the Farmers' Almanac noted that "the climate this winter will render the nation divided".
According to them, the eastern two-thirds of the nation will be colder than normal while the western United States will be warmer than normal. Furthermore, the eastern two-thirds of the country will be wetter than average with Old Man Winter returning with a vengeance across the Great Lakes and Northeast regions. They are expecting most of the eastern states – as far south as the Gulf Coast – to see snowier than normal conditions and cooler temperatures and are pinpointing February 12–15 and March 20–23 as target dates for a major east coast storm event to take place.
As far as the western half of the United States, this winter will continue its hiatus for another year with areas west of the Continental Divide, particularly the Pacific Northwest, the desert Southwest, and the Pacific Coast experiencing mild and below-normal precipitation. The southern Plains, particularly Texas and Oklahoma will see a mild and wet winter. And for much of the drought-stricken prairie region, an average amount of winter precipitation will bring long awaited relief. ( map of winter predictions for the country)