Sunday, September 30, 2012

Typhoon Curve and the Northern US Cold Connection - Based on the future movement of Typhoon Jelawat and Tropical Storm Ewinar, cold air may plunge into part of the northern U.S. next week. meteorologists have observed for years that whether tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific curve away from Asia or plow inland over China determines whether or not cold air aims for portions of the Midwest and Northeast approximately 10 to 14 days later.
"When a typhoon or strong tropical storm curves to the northeast along the coast of Asia, the way the jet stream gets jumbled up in the process usually allows a batch of chilly air to plunge southward from Canada to the swath from the northern Rockies to the northeastern U.S." The jet stream is a zone of high speed winds at high levels of the atmosphere that often marks the path weather systems will take. The jet stream typically marks the boundary between cool air to its north and warm air to its south. In short, the way a tropical cyclone curves northeast of Japan amplifies the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean and North America.
Exactly how strongly the tropical system curves will determine the wavelength and position of jet stream ridges and troughs over the Pacific Ocean and North America. (A ridge is a northward bulge of warm in the jet stream; a trough is a southward dip of chilly air.) "In the case of Typhoon Sanba, which curved away from southeastern China around Sept. 14, 2012, but slammed Korea before heading north of Japan around Sept. 16, we had big ridge set up in the western and eastern Pacific with a trough in the middle of the Pacific and a trough over the Upper Midwest and Northeast U.S. during the latter part of September.
The situation in the Western Pacific now is a bit more complex in that we have two tropical cyclones, so we may not have a textbook case of how the push of cold air behaves a couple of weeks later. We do believe that as Jelawat curves northeastward across Japan and Ewinar curves east of Japan this weekend, a push of cold air will begin to drive southward next week over western Canada. From there, the cold push may get hung up over the North Central states or could drive more into the Great Lakes and Northeast next weekend into week two of October."
When tropical cyclones plow northwestward into mainland China and diminish, there is no direct connection in the weather a couple of weeks later for the northern U.S. Neither Jelawat nor Ewinar are forecast to reach westward into mainland China.

**If you keep saying things are going to be bad,
you have a chance of being a prophet.**
Isaac B. Singer

Live Seismograms - Worldwide (update every 30 minutes)

This morning -

Yesterday -
9/29/12 -

9/28/12 -

Japan's industry minister said the country must give up nuclear power plants as soon as possible because they pose too much risk in one of the world's most earthquake-prone countries.

In the Atlantic -
- Category 1 Hurricane Nadine was located about 605 mi [970 km] WSW of the Azores. No threat to land.

In the East Pacific -
- Post-Tropical cyclone Norman was located about 130 mi [210 km] W of Los Mochis, Mexico. No watches or warnings. The last advisory has been issued for this system.

In the Western Pacific -
- Typhoon Jelawat was located approximately 350 nm southwest of Yokosuka, Japan. It will make landfall over southern Honshu, drag across the Kanto plain, and re-emerge in the Sea of Japan.
- Tropical storm Ewiniar was located approximately 475 nm east-northeast of Yokosuka, Japan. No threat to land. The final warning has been issued on this system.

Typhoon Jelawat - The powerful typhoon is heading to Tokyo after injuring dozens of people, causing blackouts and paralysing traffic in southern Japan. Jelawat is expected to hit the Tokyo region on Sunday evening. They warn of torrential rain and sudden wind gusts, urging Tokyo residents to stay indoors.
At noon (1300 AEST) on Sunday, the storm was packing winds of up to 144 kilometres an hour. The typhoon left more than 50 people with minor injuries on the southern island of Okinawa on Saturday. Thousands of homes were without electricity. Dozens of trains were suspended Sunday in coastal areas around Tokyo, and some 300 domestic flights were to be grounded throughout the day. Up to half a metre of rain is expected in central Japan through Monday.


Spain - A tornado has swept through a fairground in a Spanish town, knocking down a Ferris wheel and injuring 35 people, while the death toll from flooding in the same southern region of the country has risen to 10. Friday's tornado damaged several rides and cut electricity in the temporary fair set up in the main square of Gandia. 15 of the injured were seriously hurt, all of whom were treated on site.The fair in Valencia province was closed to the public at the time of a thunderstorm and all the injured were fair workers.
Just inland from the Mediterranean coastal town, five more victims of Friday's flash floods southwest of Gandia were found overnight. They included a middle-aged woman in the town of Lorca. Last summer, Lorca was hit by Spain's deadliest earthquakes in more than 50 years, leaving nine dead. The heavy downpours and resulting high waters claimed the lives of five people in the province of Murcia, three in Almeria and two in Malaga. A 52-year-old British woman was missing in Almeria as well as one homeless man. Five people originally declared missing had been found alive. Hundreds of citizens had to be evacuated throughout the region.
The flooding disrupted high-speed train service between Madrid and Valencia, and various regional lines, while bridges and roads were also made impassible.The heavy rains which started on Friday morning were expected to continue throughout Saturday, with the front moving north toward Catalonia and the Balearic Islands.


INCOMING SOLAR STORM CLOUD - Magnetic fields around sunspot 1577 erupted on Sept. 28th, hurling a coronal mass ejection (CME) almost directly toward Earth. The cloud raced away from the sun faster than 2.2 million mph. NOAA forecasters estimated a 50% chance of strong geomagnetic storms around the poles on Sept 30th when the cloud reaches Earth.


Vomiting virus hits thousands of German children - The number of children that have fallen ill with vomiting and diarrhea after eating food from school cafeterias and daycare centers has risen from about 4500 to 8400. Authorities in Berlin and the surrounding eastern German states reported the new gastroenteritis cases, while laboratory investigations to determine the exact cause of the outbreak were still under way.
Berlin's health department says the sicknesses are moderate and most children recover within two days without requiring to be taken to hospital. In Saxony state, at least 16 cases of norovirus, a mostly food- or water-borne illness, were proven. All facilities where the illness occurred likely received food from a single supplier.

A popular anti-anxiety drug has been linked with an increased risk of dementia in the elderly, according to new research. Patients over the age of 65 who start taking benzodiazepines, also known as benzos, have a 50 per cent increased chance of developing dementia within 15 years compared with people who had never used the drug, according to the study.
Researchers warned that "indiscriminate widespread use" of the drugs, which are also used to treat insomnia, should be cautioned against. The drug is widely used in many countries. In France 30 per cent of people over the age of 65 take benzodiazepines. Many administer the drug for long periods despite guidelines suggesting it should only be used for a few weeks.
"Benzodiazepines remain useful for the treatment of acute anxiety states and transient insomnia. However, increasing evidence shows that their use may induce adverse outcomes, mainly in elderly people, such as serious falls and fall related fractures. Our data add to the accumulating evidence that use of benzodiazepines is associated with increased risk of dementia, which, given the high and often chronic consumption of these drugs in many countries, would constitute a substantial public health concern. Therefore, physicians should carefully assess the expected benefits of the use of benzodiazepines in the light of these adverse effects and, whenever possible, limit prescription to a few weeks as recommended by the good practice guidelines. In particular, uncontrolled chronic use of benzodiazepines in elderly people should be cautioned against."

New 'Sars-like' not easily transmitted says WHO - A new respiratory illness - from the same family as the Sars virus - appears not to spread easily, experts at the World Health Organization say.